[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

[Diiny]

J, as someone who's voting Wilgy can you think of why he's so hesitant to vote you, even declaring so from the start of the game?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Russ, could you please answer these questions, even if just with a couple words each?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

J, as someone who's voting Wilgy can you think of why he's so hesitant to vote you, even declaring so from the start of the game?

That's a question he should answer, not me. I have some ideas and I actually just typed them, but I'd prefer he address it before I drop something in his lap. I'll answer after him.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That was an example on how I treat reads, though I do think there's more than one scum point in fuzz's history. There's no townie sea. see: Faux arguments with mac to distance themselves and eventually voting wilgy over mac. His total scumminess outweighs the total towniness to the point that, with regards to a specific post, the less likely explanation for it becomes more likely when you look at the whole picture.

Did you see the theory I presented suggesting some of his weird questions have been designed to set up specific LyLo scenarios which would be favorable for the mafia, and if so what do you think of that theory?

[motel room]

Motel: top suspect; top townie

Top suspect is still Bullzeye or Russ. In fact I'm gonna pop a vote on Bullzeye right after I click submit. And I really doubt we're seeing a scum jjj, his hunger is second to none last few days. Ricochet is second top town.

By "town" I guess I mean not scum cos I can see anybody here being SK potentially. The quieter ones more likely.

If Bullzeye is mafia, how do you think his recent content would look as a townie?

What? Like how would he be posting differently as a townie? I dont know, but he's shut it down for now, gone dark or whatever you called your scum play earlier. Everybody towns differently but some scum traits just work.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Motel: top suspect; top townie

Top suspect is still Bullzeye or Russ. In fact I'm gonna pop a vote on Bullzeye right after I click submit. And I really doubt we're seeing a scum jjj, his hunger is second to none last few days. Ricochet is second top town.

By "town" I guess I mean not scum cos I can see anybody here being SK potentially. The quieter ones more likely.

If Bullzeye is mafia, how do you think his recent content would look as a townie?

What? Like how would he be posting differently as a townie? I dont know, but he's shut it down for now, gone dark or whatever you called your scum play earlier. Everybody towns differently but some scum traits just work.

Your posts are tiny. I'm making them bigger.

Your comparison to my own scum maneuver in the champs finale is valid enough though. I slow-rolled the town by promising content and then deliberately failed to deliver. A few of them actually strongly reconsidered lynching me because it seemed so far apart from what they'd expect of a mafia JJJ.

I think that strategy was more effective for me though because it was a game mostly without metagaming.

I don't think Bullzeye looks better for his lack of contribution, agreed. He has pledged to contribute tomorrow (real time tomorrow) -- we'll see.

[Strawhenge]

[Russtifinko]

Stuff for JJJ:

Hey everyone, let me show you a man with a serious interest in LyLo situations, and particularly my maneuvers in them. His name is RadicalFuzz:

Spoiler: show

J3, gun to your head LYLO, would you lynch me or motel room?

Sorry about that earlier J3, I forgot to add the actual statement. If you had to be stranded on the moon with three people from this game, which three would you take to avoid getting stabbed in the back?

J3 I'm aware you're out at the moment, but I want your opinion on something.

Ignoring the possibility of being lynched, what night phase do you think Wilgy will get killed?

Thanks for the clarification Bullzeye.

The reversed question also applies to Wilgy. Ignoring the possibility of J3 being lynched, what night phase do you think he will get killed?

Wilgy, if you had to vote between J3 and Rico, gun to your head LYLO, who would you choose?

J3, weird question, but could you tell me your cleanest 3 players? Excluding yourself, of course.

He could literally be grooming the thread for a specific LyLo arrangement. He already knows Doc would vote for me in that scenario, and he has an idea of what names I wouldn't vote for. He did say he had a reason for asking these "weird questions":

Wilgy I'm asking J3 many questions because he's both around to answer them and I want him to answer them incorrectly. To my dismay he hasn't yet responded illogically. And if that's your roundabout way of asking me whether I think J3 is town or not, the answer is complicated. I would vote for him in lieu of concrete evidence for anybody else, but my suspicion of him is still extremely circumstantial.

Fuzzy Bear: I don't believe you.

I think your final two or three mafia are in this group:

RadicalFuzz
Bullzeye
Russtifinko
DrWilgy*
Diiny*

*darkhorse picks

I have to get to sleep now. Today I think we should lynch Bullzeye or RadicalFuzz. Remember that close tallies are ripe for shenanigans. Don't let anyone's votes go unchallenged: they need to be thoroughly explained and supported by something in these 7,000 posts we've made. I hate to miss EOD, but I have no choice. Working day shift tomorrow.

JJJ, you were all about Fuzz for a while. I'm getting that you see your Wilgy analysis as super compelling, but has your opinion on Fuzz changed at all? If so, can you direct me to what post/analysis did that?

it must be said, your townread of motel is the strongest I can recall since...well, your townread of Mac

I'm going to clarify because I think there's a problem of perception: motel room is not my strongest town read (and nor was Mac at any juncture). He is a town read, as was Mac, but I am less confident in calling him that than yourself for example. I think it appears to be a stronger read than it really is because it's at odds with what most other people seem to think -- just like my Mac read was.

I'd like to think I won't be completely wrong about a controversial town read twice in one game.

Everybody: can you share your tinfoil reads?

If you're not sure what I mean by that, I mean pick the player who you're most concerned is mafia because he will be a very difficult lynch and/or is a consensus town read?

For me: Ricochet.

Underlines added to highlight my point. By this definition, this is absolutely motel room. You say he's a low-hanging fruit, and that's just plain wrong. He's being defended by the two most vocal players in thread, you and Rico, he's off the poll today, and MM's vote move yesterday can be seen as a save of motel. (The more i think about it, the more it strikes me this way.) He has 3 of 9 living players, and arguably the three most influential ones, standing up for him. What about all that makes him low-hanging fruit? The fact that I've suspected him? I'm not even in your guys' league.

I think motel room actually is the hardest player in the game to lynch right now bar none, and he also happens to be the one I am most convinced is mafia.

That's great Jay.

What have you deduced from this caveat? In your opinion, do you believe that situation I mentioned is my only saving grace as a civilian and that there is no other facet of my play that compares to that moment, which itself is already only a glass-half-full type of good anyway?

Do you not appreciate honesty?

I've deduced that you think your treatment of Mac on Day 6 should reflect well on you (applicable regardless of your alignment) and also that you grant that your effort to link Mac with me takes something away from that good look.

Because I'm town. And it's a bad link.

Honesty is great, but I think you may have puked a little more into that post than you meant to.

JJJ, I missed this discussion, and I'm confused as to why a push to link you and Mac is a bad look until you're confirmed town.

I do think the fact that MM granted your point there looks bad, because it implies that he does know with 100% certainty you're civ. But for those of us that don't, there's nothing inherently wrong with suspecting you, and I dispute your implicit claim here that there is.

It seems you backed off of MM after this, and again, I don't currently suspect you, but people are still allowed to suspect you, right?

Inb4 you say I'm trying to "discredit" you again: This point doesn't take anything at all away from the awesome analysis you're doing, or from my town read of you, and I don't think it should for others. I just think that we need to be aware of all possibilities, and we need to be able to discuss and express our ideas without reservation if we're going to get the baddies. I don't want anyone to stifle themselves or for any discussion to be quashed because someone is afraid that if they do say something about suspecting you, or even disagree with you, they'll immediately be labeled as bad. I actually believe you have that kind of power over the thread at this point, and I'm just asking that you be judicious in exercising it. One person not saying something they think could quite literally lose us this game. Plus I have a personal interest in this point, now: I've disagreed with you twice in this post alone, so please don't have me killed for it.

Linki: JJJ, thanks for linking to your questions. I couldn't find the other two in you history at first. As for who's low hanging fruit, I'd prefer to do my ISOs on Fuzz or Wilgy before responding. I think those two and Bullz are most likely to be lynched, and (again, pending ISOs), I think Bullz is most likely of the three to be bad.

As to what makes me look best: I'd like to say decisive votes in two mafia lynches. However, every aspect of my those votes has been dissected so thoroughly that I'm not even sure they're a point in my favor any more, and they certainly aren't a strong one. I've done a pretty bad job at looking civ this game, and I think it's why I'm still alive at this point. I imagine that's true for all of us to some extent since we're still here.

And thanks for posting an ETA on content from Bullz. I meant to ask about that in my last post. Do we have a Wilgy Content ETA as well?

[Russtifinko]

For MM:

JJJ, I personally don't find the scum spew analysis super valuable. No offense meant here, but it reads like you go into it with your read on a player, mention how the mafia has brought that player up, and state that whatever was said solidifies your read. I know I was the one who asked you to look at more obscure things, but it just feels like a reach when I read it. That said, maybe I'm also reading it with bias since I think motel room is bad and you don't. I also think MM's move off of motel room makes motel look worse in addition to MM. If one of them is bad, I'd bet dimes to dollars the other is.

I wanted my vote to count, and I didn't want a tie happening. I think you can understand this perspective.

Yeah, for sure. I always want my vote to count as well, and I share your aversion to ties. Neither of those things ping me, but you did move a vote off the player I most suspect, and then a civ died. I'm just saying that if one of you turns up bad, then this immediately becomes a save job in my mind. I think you can understand that perspective, as well.

Bullzeye being mafia is not supported by Epignosis's theory, for what it's worth

Of the living players implicated by that theory, who do you lean toward?

Jay, same question to you.

Same to everyone else.

If Epignosis's theory is correct that the PSK missed the Night 5 kill because of inactivity, which player do you think is most likely to be the PSK based on players who did not post that night.

The candidates are bcornett (NK'd by mafia last night), Diiny, DrWilgy, and motel room.

This post is about the SK, not mafia, right? I'd hope it's bcornett, but I think of the four, Diiny is most likely based on his somewhat noncommital content. That said, he's posted reads on Fuzz and Wilgy today, so he's looking a tiny bit better to me in that regard.

[Russtifinko]

And one miscellaneous, for Rico:

Wilgy posted this begin of Day 6.

Mac, Matt, Fuzz and Floyd, who did you target last night?

We had a fail kill and no psycho killer. Chances are one of y'all intervined, possibly in both, and y'all should know how. JJJ you should know as well.

I will explain everything as soon as I'm back from the renaissance festival.

JJJ, no beef, got much love for ya.

Two of the people he inquired turned out mafia (with no powers to block or do shit...in theory, Mac could have redirected the SK's kill to the same unkillable target, but I wouldn't put my money on it; for one thing, he then started spewing on Epig being SK...and Epig was killed by the SK...), Matt is dead, only Fuzz is here.

He also says JJJ should know something about this very thing he is pointing at.

He's an SK candidate, so... Would this come off as an SK chatting in the open about whudunit or as genuine investigative stuff?

Rico, can you clarify what you mean here? It looked at the beginning of the post like you were going to conclude he looked scummy here, since he mentioned two now-confirmed scum. But at the bottom it looks like you're seeing this as evidence he's the SK, and I'm not seeing the link as to why.

PS - Sorry my second-last post up there got unwieldy. I didn't notice until I saw it in this one's linki just now.

[motel room]

it must be said, your townread of motel is the strongest I can recall since...well, your townread of Mac

I'm going to clarify because I think there's a problem of perception: motel room is not my strongest town read (and nor was Mac at any juncture). He is a town read, as was Mac, but I am less confident in calling him that than yourself for example. I think it appears to be a stronger read than it really is because it's at odds with what most other people seem to think -- just like my Mac read was.

I'd like to think I won't be completely wrong about a controversial town read twice in one game.

Everybody: can you share your tinfoil reads?

If you're not sure what I mean by that, I mean pick the player who you're most concerned is mafia because he will be a very difficult lynch and/or is a consensus town read?

For me: Ricochet.

Underlines added to highlight my point. By this definition, this is absolutely motel room. You say he's a low-hanging fruit, and that's just plain wrong. He's being defended by the two most vocal players in thread, you and Rico, he's off the poll today, and MM's vote move yesterday can be seen as a save of motel. (The more i think about it, the more it strikes me this way.) He has 3 of 9 living players, and arguably the three most influential ones, standing up for him. What about all that makes him low-hanging fruit? The fact that I've suspected him? I'm not even in your guys' league.

I think motel room actually is the hardest player in the game to lynch right now bar none, and he also happens to be the one I am most convinced is mafia.

Rico thinks I'm scum too buddy, wtf. But like, at least he has more than one weak reason for it.

There's no way I'm the hardest player to lynch (aside from today, it being impossible). Are you worried you'll look fake if you back off me?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JJJ, you were all about Fuzz for a while. I'm getting that you see your Wilgy analysis as super compelling, but has your opinion on Fuzz changed at all? If so, can you direct me to what post/analysis did that?

I never stop reassessing. To become hardheadedly focused on one suspect is to demand absolute correctness of that read at the risk of costing town the game. Fuzz is still a suspect, but I did encounter at least one point in my spew analysis for him that makes me reconsider. It's highlighted in pink text in the analysis. Tell me what you think of that.

Underlines added to highlight my point. By this definition, this is absolutely motel room. You say he's a low-hanging fruit, and that's just plain wrong. He's being defended by the two most vocal players in thread, you and Rico, he's off the poll today, and MM's vote move yesterday can be seen as a save of motel. (The more i think about it, the more it strikes me this way.) He has 3 of 9 living players, and arguably the three most influential ones, standing up for him. What about all that makes him low-hanging fruit? The fact that I've suspected him? I'm not even in your guys' league.

I think motel room actually is the hardest player in the game to lynch right now bar none, and he also happens to be the one I am most convinced is mafia.

When I called motel room the low-hanging fruit, I wasn't really anticipating my non-mafia interpretation of the spew for him would be popular -- Rico hadn't expressed any agreement yet and I didn't think he would. I don't think Rico has really "defended" him though as much as waffled on the issue (in a way that isn't necessarily suspicious).

You might be right that he's harder to lynch that he seemed like he would be earlier. Entering Day 11 I thought he was a pretty likely lynch option. I'd ask that you review my most recent review about mafia spew pertaining to motel room. Prior to this review I'd called motel room "the hardest read of the game for me", and not a town read (I think you'd been misattributing that read to me before). That review made me feel better about him and I'd like for you to have a look and share your disagreements.

JJJ, I missed this discussion, and I'm confused as to why a push to link you and Mac is a bad look until you're confirmed town.

I do think the fact that MM granted your point there looks bad, because it implies that he does know with 100% certainty you're civ. But for those of us that don't, there's nothing inherently wrong with suspecting you, and I dispute your implicit claim here that there is.

It seems you backed off of MM after this, and again, I don't currently suspect you, but people are still allowed to suspect you, right?

You've either misinterpreted or twisted this conversation. At no point did I imply people are not permitted to suspect me or anything of the sort. In fact, the entire point I was making against MM is the exact same point you just presented (highlighted in yellow).

I don't object to people suspecting me as long as they can support that suspicion in a way that is reasonable given content in this game thread -- and they need to allow me to respond to that suspicion fairly.

Do we have a Wilgy Content ETA as well?

Nothing specific. He pledged to do it tomorrow as well I think.

Both of them have to make good on that because there will be very little time tomorrow to sort through it all. We have to make a collective decision and we can't have a tally that is all over the place like it is right now.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

motel room, who is your second biggest suspect after Bullzeye, and do you feel that player is a compatible scum team mate of Bullzeye?

[Russtifinko]

Super glad I reread RadicalFuzz. I remembered things I had forgotten, and came across some new stuff that I see as valuable too.

We'll start with this one. It's the original reason I started liking RF - he's not afraid to challenge town reads of himself, which I think in and of itself reflects a town-friendly mindset. He does this continually; I'll raise further examples that I think are valid as I see them.

Spoiler: show

Thanks? I'm concerned about how quickly you're forming your conclusions, though. I've made a few posts and, unless you're basing your opinion of me on what Reywas said or did when he was here, that's not very much information. I get that you're looking for town reads, but you're almost too hasty, it's disconcerting.

The most important role you play as a newly replacing in player in a game this massive, especially for a player with nearly no posts, is to assert yourself in such a manner that you can be read fairly. Moreover, the rest of us are especially tasked with assessing your content, whether it's substantive or light, and getting you the heck out of the neutral pile.

The fact that you've bothered to look deep enough into the older sectors of this thread to find the post of mine that you highlighted -- and raise a point that I can understand you raising since you don't know me -- is a good look for you. It shows me that you're invested in your position as a replacement in this game, and in trying to figure out how to get a read on people. It's good enough for me to say you're a town read now.

Doesn't mean I will love you forever and we'll drift away into the sunset, but for now I think you're headed in a positive direction.

That's a much more logical answer than I'm used to getting. I like you. I'll be sure to change your mind at some point.

By the way, you never did answer my question. Is that common for you, to want to cooperate with as many civilians as possible, or is it specifically Diiny?

He did have an exchange on Day 4 where he challenged Floyd on his thread reading, and then backed off when Floyd cited real life issues as his reason for low participation. Im assuming this showed up in JJJ's spew analysis.

I also found this super interesting. RF and Wilgy agree that they read each other very well. I find this super important, given that they both look like viable lynches for today.
(For the record, bcornett replies that Wilgy's content looks too fluffy to him, and RF says that he doesn't have a problem with the fluffiness.)

Spoiler: show

I'm not sure, myself. You play strangely on Syndicate, I'm only used to your JTM (and Avalon) antics.

bcornett, can you elaborate on why you put Wilgy in "probably scum"?

Thought you would say that. Regardless of your alignment, you know I play better with you pushing me. Don't let me miss those techs and punishes Fuzz.

Our definitions of "pushing" are slightly different, but I agree that we play off each other extremely well. Unfortunately that obviously applies when we're on different teams, but c'est la vie.

Anther example for challenging town reads of himself. To me this looks super genuine.

Spoiler: show

snip

I have not read the entire thread, and at this moment do not intend to unless asked to. I read through where my first post was up, and I very loosely skimmed the early pages of the game until I got to that post. I saw you were still alive, so I figured that was as good a place to start as any. Apologies if that sounds lazy, especially compared to the amount of work you put in to ISO every player with regards to Long Con, but I'd rather spend that time with current events.

As for calling attention to myself, if you'll take an obviously biased answer, it's a defense mechanism. By getting people to acknowledge me and converse either with or about me it becomes harder to misinterpret things I say, intentionally or otherwise, or for a wagon to form on me without the thread's opinions on me already known. If Wilgy, for instance, were to say on Day 3 that he thought I was neutral-townish then if he was calling for my head on Day 4, without any evidence specifically from Day 4, then that points to ulterior motives. It also serves to marginally dissuade the Mafia from night killing mes, as there'd be a good amount of information to draw from after I flip. Also I loathe being ignored, so the easiest way to avoid that is to make odd requests such as "would you ISO me?" or ask other players what they think of my allegiance.

I don't have an aptitude for catching things I'm not already looking at. You unnerve me, so I'm not going to take my eye off you. I'm focused on bcornett for a similar reason, although there are differences. I'm a symbiotic player, I work best playing off someone else, so I want to believe you're town because we could , but I've fallen in that hole before so I'm remaining cautious. As for bcornett, it's a similar kind of gut read, I see some kind of nervousness or tension in his posts that makes me hesitate. Similarly to you, I'd prefer to keep playing to my strengths, but if you want me to expand my view I can try.

Day 5, RF begins suspecting Wilgy based on this exchange. (Not spoilered because essential.)

RF proceeded to vote Wilgy on Days 6-8. He voted sig for self-preservation on Day 9, and then moved to Choutas for Day 10.

I'm exempt from your lists? That's a nice way of saying that you're intending to push me later without being held accountable for an opinion now. Thanks for the response.

Lol, you got me!

No, the player you subbed for just missed votes, so I don't have the intel to properly judge your actions and interactions.

I've been here, voting and talking. You require more than that to reach some form of basic conclusion? Did you not make any initial conclusions on the other players until Day 3?

Again, challenges a civ read on him (by Bullzeye this time).

Spoiler: show

Would you mind listing what you disagree with me on?

And it's likely a wording or definition issue, but it irks me to see that you haven't suspected me. You should be suspecting everybody, especially the players you think are right.

He does a super in-depth ISO of Wilgy here: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 09#p186809, which I'm now disappointed I didn't pay more attention to at the time.

In the next two posts he expands on his case on Wilgy, and says the latter's responses are not helping.
Fuzz, if you're reading this, why did you want to case MM here, and what became of the situation? Pardon me for not seeing it for myself in the ISO, I was following different lines of thought and didn't pick this one up.

Spoiler: show

With the information that I believe you're trying to tell me with that, Wilgy, I don't see how that changes my conclusion. I don't have anything to work off of here, so rather than assume some hidden shenanigans I have to base my conclusions off of what I can see. You're not making me feel better by continually making vague statements that you can't or won't back up when that's a part of my suspicion against you. Until you can convince me otherwise, and I sincerely hope you do, my conclusion is that you're scum and my vote will stay on you.

Metalmarsh, I don't feel inclined to make a case that you're scum at this moment.

Spoiler: show

Wilgy you, as a Mafia player who understands the game, are aware of something. Information is king. Suspicions, reads, inklings, any game-relevant information helps town (barring extremes like knowing who Medic/UC are), and every civilian should aim to increase the total knowledge base of the town by giving their information as best they can. Your contributions have been raw vote data, trying to get bcornett to answer a question, and now implying you believe I'm dirty. If this is all you have to your name after six days, you are not helping the town win.

I thought my stance on Floyd was clear earlier but I'll reiterate. He looks bad, for the most part completely objectively. The logical conclusion if he looks objectively bad is that he is most likely bad. I will not be voting for him for illogical reasons. The reason I'm not going over any other players for the particularly same reason as you, Wilgy, is because I don't know them. I'm not going to assume that I know what Roxy believes to be good town play. I know that you're aware of your low contribution, but rather than trying to fix the problem you're attempting a No U, and that's not the correct move for town Wilgy here.

Motel, since you're familiar with the series, let's play a game. If I was L, who would Near be?

Epi, I'm trying to stress that ease of lynching is a minimal factor for my decision making process. Blame me for suggesting a Chinese fire drill, as I did, but don't omit that I wanted a Chinese fire drill onto my suspect in Wilgy.

J3, those are my suspicions against him. They're amplified because I know he doesn't believe in playing town like he currently is, however. I don't expect other players to have that coefficient due to familiarity, but I'll offer a substitution. Wilgy stated that he and I play very well off of each other. Has he made attempts to reach out to me in the thread, or has it been me attempting to work with him?

Ok, to me this one is a big deal for a couple of reasons. One, he's again challenging town reads on him, and he says for the first time that he objectively looks horrible. It's the beginning of a trend of getting out in front of suspicion points on himself. To me it looks like a good thing that he's so self-aware, but I can understand how it could be read as a baddie being very careful.

Spoiler: show

bcornett I think you're bad because you seem to have very selective question answering skills. Questions that have been asked for days, not just once or twice, are hard to miss.

The only thing that leaps to mind for J3 downplaying or avoiding evidence is his apparent inability to discuss Wilgy. If I recall correctly he made a post asking for a rundown of the suspicions against him and then hushed up about it.

What great reasoning! There is no way it has anything to do with the thread having 5000 posts in it and having to catch up on ~20 pages several times.

You being so behind doesn't help your argument, surprisingly enough, because those questions actually were way back there in the thread. Wilgy is not exaggerating when he says he asked you a full week ago. Converting for the 48/24 cycle, let's call that Night 4 or Day 5.

J3 still has mentioned the case against Wilgy once, I believe, to state that he doesn't see it and ask what the reasons for lynching him are. No response to my answer shortly after.

Also I'm not getting enough flak for suggesting a Chinese fire drill at end of day yesterday. That looks objectively horrible, but I'm a town read across the board in our little experiment. Epi, I believe, was the only one to even mention it.

A second big one, where he acknowledges a bunch of suspicious points against himself. Again, I can see why some wouldn't like it, but to me it looks good.

Spoiler: show

I think I have the gist of the suspicions against me. My interactions with all of the dead scum are atrocious. My multiple soft defenses of Mac, in addition to my literal call for a Chinese Fire Drill off of him, look bad. I understood that when I made those posts. What I don't understand is how those actions are somehow made scummier when I leave town.

I CTRL+F'd my name and quickly skimmed so if I missed something I apologize. Repeat the question and I'll answer it.

Metalmarsh you're going to look very bad soon and you know why. You are either the worst kind of civilian, who throws logical thought out the window, or scum.

Matt - Wilgy knows the infodumping rules on this site. I find it much more likely that he didn't have any "plan" to begin with and just went "gosh darn that didn't work" after asking a basic infodumping question.

J3, your quote here that says "civilian Matt is cool with extending the lifespan of potential bad guys for absolutely no reason relevant to thread content [rolls eyes-smiley]" is an interesting one. You've looked at my reasons for not voting Floyd multiple times but never expressed annoyance at those. Why does Matt taking the same action (illogical reason for not voting someone) bug you? And if you have questions you want to answer please list them, I didn't start this response until after I had read your ISOs.

The next two posts to me are really my only major ping points with Fuzz. It is disconcerting that they are so recent, but I do see them as lone points of scumminess in what's mostly townie-looking waters in his history.

It's not being nice, it's wanting to give him a chance to fail. My first game I was Mafia and made a comeback for the win. I have a large ego and enjoy it when other people fail things I succeeded at. It falls under "illogical" all the same. I'm curious though, are you going to vote me for it?

We all know Fuzz refused to vote Floyd despite genuinely believing he made a slip. I can sympathize with that, as I have a similar stance on acting on dumped info. (I won't do it.) This to me read as something else than what he was saying before, though. Not 100% sure this is an alignment-related thing as opposed to personality-related, but it rubs me the wrong way a bit.

And this to me is the worst-looking thing Fuzz has said all game (in response to JJJ's question about what makes us all look best):

The multiple players that have townread me for the majority, if not all, of their lifespans.

Fuzz, all game long, has been saying that people should be suspecting him, that they should not be town reading him, and that his play looks really really bad. I get that he doesn't feel his play has done a whole lot to make him look good, but it's just shocking to me that he'll say the thing he's been saying people should not do in regards to him now suddenly is a point in his favor. I already thought the post looked bad, but when taken in the context of his entire body of work it becomes almost unfathomable to me.


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Tl;dr/conclusions: I like the majority of Fuzz's content. I can see why people wouldn't, and I'm afraid this read will be taken as too subjective, but I like what I see. You could say he's been tunnelly on Wilgy. I say he's been consistent with his suspicions. You could disagree with me on how to interpret his posts saying he should be suspected and getting out in front of points against him, but I like both. I also don't think the Floyd thing is particularly damning, although I'll concede it looks a bit worse after his most recent post about it. The final quote I posted is a major point of concern for me, since it goes directly against his stance on these things for most of the game. However, I'm not ready to lynch someone over a single post unless it is conclusive proof of badness.

I'm not for a Fuzz lynch today. I'd prefer Bullzeye at this point. I'd still like to read Diiny and now Wilgy before voting, but between this enormous post (I'm sorry) and fighting off my hangover, I am worn out.

For Wilgy: I haven't ISO'edyou yet, but I don't remember seeing much about Fuzz from you. You both stated at the beginning of the game that you can read each other very well. What has been your read of his play so far this game?

And for Fuzz: Why would you say people should suspect you, and then say that people NOT suspecting you is the thing that makes you look most civ in the game? What are your current thoughts on MM? And please remind me what motivated you to vote Choutas yesterday. Was it that you didn't think a Wilgy lynch would get traction and you wanted your vote to count, were you majorly pinged by Choutas, or was there something else?

[motel room]

motel room, who is your second biggest suspect after Bullzeye, and do you feel that player is a compatible scum team mate of Bullzeye?

Its Russ and yeah I can see them being compatible because of their apparent mutual distrust of each other that has never been pushed hard (its what I reckon I'd do at this point in the game - soft suspicion, dont pull the trigger unless you have to then BAM look how town you must be):

I voted Russti again because I haven't had much time to catch up and he's still one of my top suspects. If I'm still alive/the game is still going after this weekend I will hopefully be more active but until then I can't really play, unfortunately.

Linki: JJJ, thanks for linking to your questions. I couldn't find the other two in you history at first. As for who's low hanging fruit, I'd prefer to do my ISOs on Fuzz or Wilgy before responding. I think those two and Bullz are most likely to be lynched, and (again, pending ISOs), I think Bullz is most likely of the three to be bad.

Had to go back a bit through Bullzeye's posts to see when he last did anything other than defend. And I guess we'll see how hard Russ pushes for Bullzeye lynch or not now that his town scapegoat is off the table.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

motel room, please have a look at this review of mafia content related to Russ and tell me what you think. It left me feeling better about him than I was before compiling it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Russ, thanks for giving your thoughts on Fuzz. I think the stance you've taken is understandable -- I have said that I feel Fuzz passes the "eye test" without necessarily passing the "evidence test" (I have similar feelings about motel room). My concern is that at this stage of the game, it's a significant risk to pass over a candidate for surface-observable town tells which don't influence discussion of suspects in a significant manner.

I do think his manner of asking questions has seemed genuine and town. I also know that I've done those things as a mafioso on numerous occasions. The same goes for questioning/challenging people who have had town reads on him. It's perhaps the most fundamental expression of WIFOM, and it promotes the appearance of an objective mindset -- but that doesn't mean it's an investigative mindset. A townie must have both.

It's a difficult read to make with conviction either way. For me, the most troubling problem with Fuzz remains his explanation for his handling of the Floyd "thread text" scumslip. It's just hard to believe that he knew it was a slip and seemed very suspicious but didn't bother to say that until two day phases later (despite the slip occurring in a conversation between Floyd and Fuzz himself).

It's one thing. It's a a worrisome one thing -- enough for me to call him orange in my last rainbow. I do think Bullzeye and DrWilgy are more suspicious right now though.

[motel room]

motel room, please have a look at this review of mafia content related to Russ and tell me what you think. It left me feeling better about him than I was before compiling it.

The feeling that I remember getting from mac's treatment of Russ was a certainty that he was right calling Russ scum but he never acted on it at any point. That was where I first started to suspect Russ, after mac's flip.

Reading through your post does make me feel a bit better about him though, yes, but I hope that's not me getting caught up in the post narrative. Mac throwing shit at Russ still reads a bit my way, but him defending himself from Russ reads genuine (i.e. non teammates).

If Russ is town he's got a lazy read on me which I don't like, and the way he swooped in and has clung to it since. That can read as omgussy or tunelling maybe, but it goes against the one bit of evidence I do have in this game.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

By all means, motel room: continue to press Russ on the things that concern you. It's possible your prior intuition was sound and my analysis is not, and only continued interrogation can shed light on that. If your confidence is shaken though, I think you should make a concerted effort ASAP to get a better suspect in his place (beyond just Bullzeye). There aren't many candidates, so finding an answer is not necessarily a big workload.

[motel room]

I would like to hear from the ever-present Wilgy.

[Marmot]

JJJ, did you ever answer the third of the three questions you posed to the thread?

Yes, before I asked the questions. That post was what inspired me to ask everyone else.

Clicky

Day 6 was when Fuzz started asking players to read him scum. The timing of that is convenient, fwiw.

Also, what do you think about RadicalFuzz's suggestion that MacDougall is slightly more likely to be town? If this is an indication that RadicalFuzz is not mafia, what do you think about Mac agreeing with him about DrWilgy?

[Marmot]

For MM:

JJJ, I personally don't find the scum spew analysis super valuable. No offense meant here, but it reads like you go into it with your read on a player, mention how the mafia has brought that player up, and state that whatever was said solidifies your read. I know I was the one who asked you to look at more obscure things, but it just feels like a reach when I read it. That said, maybe I'm also reading it with bias since I think motel room is bad and you don't. I also think MM's move off of motel room makes motel look worse in addition to MM. If one of them is bad, I'd bet dimes to dollars the other is.

I wanted my vote to count, and I didn't want a tie happening. I think you can understand this perspective.

Yeah, for sure. I always want my vote to count as well, and I share your aversion to ties. Neither of those things ping me, but you did move a vote off the player I most suspect, and then a civ died. I'm just saying that if one of you turns up bad, then this immediately becomes a save job in my mind. I think you can understand that perspective, as well.

I disagree in that it is automatically a savejob if Bullzeye is mafia. I got it wrong. That doesn't mean I am mafia, it just means I make mistakes.

For what it's worth, you did not make this observation in the Day 9 lynch, when Ricochet broke a tie and helped lynch a civilian sig. Almost the exact same scenario, just between RadicalFuzz and sig instead of Choutas and Bullzeye.

[Marmot]

Sorry Jay. Not only did I not do what I said I was going to do yesterday, but I haven't even read over your spew reviews yet. I've been a pretty deplorable player these past couple days.

[RadicalFuzz]

Russ I never claimed I could read Wilgy, I claimed we work well off of each other. Those are very different things. The reason I think my best townie aspect is other peoples' town reads of me is because a lot of my content looks bad. I was nonexistent during the LC/bea events, I held an unpopular opinion towards Mac's reactions, and by all appearances did my damndest to save Mac and Floyd without committing to anything.

I actually am perfectly content with your green reads of Rico and Diiny, the latter in particular. Doing has come close to being lynched twice, at least once as a counter wagon to scum.

Wilgy looks bad, yes, but his emphatic defense of me is strange. That's the most effort he put into the game so far, and he was more actively defending me than I was. That makes me think better of him, due to my knowledge that I am civilian and personal brownie points, but also a good bit worse. Coming in out of nowhere with such an avid defense should be very scary, as you could be saving scum. But he never read afraid or concerned to me.

Wilgy, if Russ had said everything I had said this game what would your response to him be?

Also I think I missed a question or two. If you feel ignored point it out to me and I'll get on it.

[RadicalFuzz]

Oh, another statement. J3 in your spew analysis of me, you point out that Mac's lightning-fast waffling on me could be teammate interaction. I disagree. Why would I point that out if we were teammates? If we were teammates I clearly wasn't interested in bussing him, so why start then? Really glad I went back and caught that, even if it doesn't change interpretations of me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We need to start getting a real wagon together. It's late enough in the phase that this 1-1-1-1-1 tally is scary. I think Bullzeye and Doc are the best options.

[Ricochet]

I worked on this during this afternoon, but I have to go to German class now, so no time for observations and conclusion. Not to mention that, in real time, I got half dispirited on, yet again, not picking a clear lead on a baddie. I fucking hate this game.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ewP3Mba2WoVcdwbK3DSoeDzAMsn7oxCEsN0S08Scnfo/edit?usp=sharing

It's a chronology on how players alive behaved during the LC and Mac Day lynch phases. No time to do Floyd.

Text in red means negative stance, interaction (suss, hiss, etc.)
Text in green means positive (townread, defense, amiable, etc.)
Cases in yellow are my own pings, saved in real time, with an explanation to most of them further to the right.

Look it over and make some interpretations, if you will. GTG, for the moment. Back later, but possibly with only a three-hour window left will EoD, tops.

[Ricochet]

how players alive behaved during the LC and Mac Day lynch phases, in relation to the baddies (and viceversa), of course*

[RadicalFuzz]

I'll break the standoff with a vote on Wilgy now.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I will have to leave for work 2.5 hours before the deadline so my influence on this phase will end there. That is part of the reason I keep pushing for a consolidation of these votes.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Oh, another statement. J3 in your spew analysis of me, you point out that Mac's lightning-fast waffling on me could be teammate interaction. I disagree. Why would I point that out if we were teammates? If we were teammates I clearly wasn't interested in bussing him, so why start then? Really glad I went back and caught that, even if it doesn't change interpretations of me.

Which point of mine are you referring to? If it's the bit where Mac called you scum, then immediately left you off of a scum list, and then called you town when you asked him why -- that was the biggest hangup for me in calling you his team mate, not supporting evidence that you are his team mate.

[RadicalFuzz]

The pink one, you're correct. I misread that, then, thanks for the clarification.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Sorry Jay. Not only did I not do what I said I was going to do yesterday, but I haven't even read over your spew reviews yet. I've been a pretty deplorable player these past couple days.

There's still time to have a look. Just give your perspectives with brevity at least (whether on my analyses or on anything else relevant to reading the people in the tally). The game hangs in the balance. If you're town, don't tolerate a sputtering end.

[RadicalFuzz]

J3, how many Mafia are alive right now?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

J3, how many Mafia are alive right now?

If I had to rank the possibilities by number, from most likely to least likely:

3 ≥ 2 > 1 > 0

[Marmot]

I worked on this during this afternoon, but I have to go to German class now, so no time for observations and conclusion. Not to mention that, in real time, I got half dispirited on, yet again, not picking a clear lead on a baddie. I fucking hate this game.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ewP3Mba2WoVcdwbK3DSoeDzAMsn7oxCEsN0S08Scnfo/edit?usp=sharing

It's a chronology on how players alive behaved during the LC and Mac Day lynch phases. No time to do Floyd.

Text in red means negative stance, interaction (suss, hiss, etc.)
Text in green means positive (townread, defense, amiable, etc.)
Cases in yellow are my own pings, saved in real time, with an explanation to most of them further to the right.

Look it over and make some interpretations, if you will. GTG, for the moment. Back later, but possibly with only a three-hour window left will EoD, tops.

Jay: his most suspicious behavior has come on Day 2, and Day 6, two of the days we've lynched mafia. I've read his Day 2 material which looks inconsistent and questionable. Though he defended a flipped baddie hard on Day 6, his content looks better.

DrWilgy, well hard to say. Choutas and Strawhenge have both hinted at information, and were both (presumably) civilian. DrWilgy has done the same, but doesn't seem to get the same BoD. I think some are considering his Day 2 case on LC a setup, but it could be derived from other means. Who knows

Bullzeye: Nothing to derive her that I can see.

Diiny: It's noteworthy that he intended to vote brian but did not on Day 2. Not a good look for him.

motel room: This setup makes his Day 2 vote look better than I had previously thought.

Russtifinko: Both of his votes on Day 2 and Day 6 are his strongest contributions and greatest arguments as a townie.

[Bullzeye]

I deserve to die for a buttload of reasons, including but not limited to:
Missing the Day 10 vote
Being out most of yesterday and unable to get involved
Being far too attractive to be allowed to live
teh lulz

[Bullzeye]

I'm going to catch up now and hopefully contribute soon!

[Bullzeye]

I'm going to catch up now and hopefully contribute soon!

EBWOP: And I deserve to die for forgetting my punishment.

I also deserve to die for deserving to die.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't think DrWigy's "information" stems from his role.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay: his most suspicious behavior has come on Day 2, and Day 6, two of the days we've lynched mafia. I've read his Day 2 material which looks inconsistent and questionable. Though he defended a flipped baddie hard on Day 6, his content looks better.

I think people have made this assertion about my Day 2 because they're misinterpreting me treating the matter of LC like a townie is supposed to treat it. I was never certain of him, and I put a lot of suspicion out there for him to address. To his credit, I thought he addressed that suspicion pretty decently, and it did give me pause. Eventually though when the wagons were bcornett vs Long Con, I made my decision between them, thankfully it was the right one. I almost always vote on-wagon -- I don't like it when my vote is meaningless.

[RadicalFuzz]

Let's go worst case situation. Nine players. Three Mafia, five civilians, and one serial killer. We mislynch, and two civilians die at night (Mafia kills on odd nights, correct?)
Three Mafia, two civilians, one serial killer. The Mafia can forcibly tie the vote at the last moment, if worst comes to worst. It's not far-fetched to suggest that today could be lynch-or-lose.

Metalmarsh, in a world where a wagon of your strongest town read has one more vote than the wagon of your second strongest town read, what do you do?

J3, as an aside, I find it amusing how I thought we were very similar at first but are proving to be very different. Simple things, such as vote ideology and pressure tactics.

[Diiny]

I thought you were catching up yesterday? Was that a lie because you're under pressure?

Decided that as it stands with wilgy not talking I'm voting for him.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Let's go worst case situation. Nine players. Three Mafia, five civilians, and one serial killer. We mislynch, and two civilians die at night (Mafia kills on odd nights, correct?)
Three Mafia, two civilians, one serial killer. The Mafia can forcibly tie the vote at the last moment, if worst comes to worst. It's not far-fetched to suggest that today could be lynch-or-lose.

It's a real possibility and must be taken seriously. It's why I'm practically begging for this tally to be consolidated -- if there are enough mafia left to make a decisive tally move then it won't matter what the townies do unless they get someone a big enough lead to prevent that.

For this reason we absolutely must make a collective decision. If everyone stubbornly leaves their votes on their own guys, town might lose regardless of who's reads are most accurate.

J3, as an aside, I find it amusing how I thought we were very similar at first but are proving to be very different. Simple things, such as vote ideology and pressure tactics.

I see similarities in our mindsets but not necessarily in our strategies.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Oh yeah, forgot about some of that.

I'll address it later. I'm runnin on 3 hours of sleep and still have to drive 3 hours to houston again.

Wilgy, you've been around but still said nothing. Give us a sign of some kind.

[Diiny]

Oh, good shit fuzz.

I'm gonna have dinner and share some thoughts afterwards. Bon appetit

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just looked over my own case against Wilgy again to see if my perspectives hold after a couple days.

They do.

[RadicalFuzz]

What do you mean Diiny? "Good shit" meaning you approve of my reasons for voting Wilgy?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm going to catch up now and hopefully contribute soon!

[Diiny]

What do you mean Diiny? "Good shit" meaning you approve of my reasons for voting Wilgy?

Thought the tally was still tied when I went to vote, saw you voted wilgy. I'll have a look at the reasoning now though