[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

[Marmot]

Marsh, there are a ton of things in this thread that can be illuminated. I illuminated them loudly. Address them as you can and we'll talk about those things. Otherwise you're giving me nothing but insinuations that my word shouldn't be taken as gospel and nor should Strawhenge's -- things that are plainly evident already. Like I said: your focus right now is on my credibility and not the points I've made against you.

That's suspicious. Period.

linki: I didn't tell people to trust me or to trust Strawhenge implicitly. I gave them a case. Two of them.

You're missing the point. Nobody knows how Strawhenge arrived at his conclusion, so asking players to trust him, knowing that, doesn't make sense.

You told him that over and over again yourself. I don't know why you've changed your opinion on that matter.

[Marmot]

Metalmarsh89's content about Bullzeye:

*NOTE* -- I have deliberately avoided thoroughly reviewed Rico's own work on this interaction before producing this.

Spoiler: show

Here's a view of Day 4's lynch with the two main players involved at the forefront.

Devin the Omniscient
9
bcornett24 (15), Sorsha (16), JaggedJimmyJay (22), Bullzeye (23), Black Rock (25), Ricochet (26), Golden (27), DrWilgy (31), Epignosis (33) 27%

Sorsha
10
Choutas (6), seaside (8), Devin the Omniscient (9), Strawhenge (11), motel room (17), Matt F (20), Elohcin (24), MacDougall (28), espers (29), Russtifinko (30) 30%

My question to any player pointing the Day 4 lynch out as a save: Why could it be a save?

Sorsha led the lynch 4-0, 6-2, and 10-7. It was tied at one point at 7-7, but at no point did Devin lead the lynch (unless someone had switched their vote from one to the other, which I have not looked into yet). If this was a save attempt, MacDougall, espers, and Russtinfinko look the worst for their votes.

Looking back Bullzeye is the only one who pointed out "save attempt". But he mentioned no names to be doing the saving.

Also, I do not forgive him for voting for me on Day 3.

MM brought this out in Night 4 after the Sorsha lynch. He was half-contesting the notion that Devin was saved by Sorsha voters and noted that Bullzeye was the only person to really be pushing that agenda. I've highlighted a portion here that I think promotes an illogical thought process. While we know now that Devin was not "saved", we didn't know that then and that means a townie must approach the scenario from that mindset of uncertainty. MM portrays that mindset here, but arrives at a distinct conclusion (against the notion of a save) via a line of thinking that doesn't make sense. He's acknowledged that the Sorhsa/Devin wagons were at one point tied 7-7 and still discards the notion of a save because "Devin never had the lead" -- this is erroneous to the point of being dubious. A tied tally between a townie and a potential mafioso is literally a perfect scenario for a save to be possible.

Why do I care? Because this line of thinking was his setup for throwing a little shade on Bullzeye. If a line of thinking appears so wrong that it's sincerity can be doubted, and it is applied to a soft criticism of a confirmed mafioso, then the potential for a team mate relationship is perfectly believable. Moreover, MM hardly followed up on this. The following post is essentially the extent of that effort:

I saw talk of the lynch being a savejob, so I asked players who thought this way to explain why it would be a save. Then after rereading the posts again, I realized that Bullzeye was the only player who called it a save.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show

I haven't gotten the chance to look at Devin. Is there any case or points you can point me to that would explain his 9 votes from Day 4?

The other part of the lynch being a possible "save" hinges on Devin being bad. I still have not read everything that has happened in this thread, and I don't know if I will, so some assistance would be welcome.

This was directed at Bullzeye, but any response from a Devin suspector is welcome.

He again names Bullzeye but it's barely accusatory and even invites the discussion to expand well beyond just Bullzeye.

It was directed at Bullzeye because he was the only player who declared that the Sorsha lynch was a civ. There is nothing wrong with opening up the discussion to other players.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show

Are we going to ignore the simple possibility that the ???? kill could've been whoever Golden had seduced? It's not like we aren't 100% certain of what his role was.

If that's the case, does it tell us anything?

On Day 5 Bullzeye throws a pretty meaningless theory into the thread and MM asks a rather neutral question about it.

I agree that his theory was meaningless, which is why I responded with a question that was intended to point out it doesn't help us.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show

Yes, if Golden was targeted, it'd go to ????. Golden wouldn't die. He'd not even be a kill target anymore, ???? would.

Alternatively, if ???? was the seduced and targeted, it'd go to Golden. ???? would not be a kill target anymore, Golden would. So it couldn't be a failed kill attempt on ???? anymore.

You'll note that I've questioned why the redirected kill would even be mentioned myself and have said it's the only hole in the theory. Still, it's a better one than Matt's as it has actual grounding in logic. I don't think it's really that important anyway tbh.

Matt's was logical. It just has a hole that makes it impossible, and Matt has yet to acknowledge this.

MM chats with Bullzeye about Matt's SK theory for Mac (suggesting the theory was both logical and had a hole rendering it impossible -- ).

I'm of the opinion that even though Matt's theory here was impossible, he came to a logical conclusion with the information that he had observed. This is different than many of Matt's other theories, which lacked logical approaches.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show

Jay! what do you think of Devin's previous vote for espers and this point I raised?

How does Devin's later self-vote, after voting for Bullzeye for meta, sit with you?

I ask because you said you read Devin's reactions today as genuine, but you said that before these posts.

After I'd started to doubt the Devin lynch as a good option, MM dropped this question on me. I didn't really consider it a significant moment before, but it could be now. I'm not sure why the sincerity of Devin's vote is being checked against his "voting for Bullzeye for meta". I don't understand the logic being drawn here, and I don't understand why Bullzeye's name is present in this post.

I included Bullzeye's name because Devin and Bullzeye had a back-and-forth where Devin ended up voting Bullzeye, and then later self-voted. That's how things unfolded after you claimed to read Devin's intentions as pure.

2/10 points

Spoiler: show

Anyway, I'm mafia'd out tonight, but I may peek back in later.

Tomorrow I'll finish my response to your BR ISO, Jay. Then I'll look at your bcornett ISO. Then I'll read the second half of Rico's novel. Just reminding myself what I plan to do here.

Also, my list of Don'tLynches

Bullzeye
Elohcin
JaggedJimmyJay
Matt F
Metalmarsh89
RadicalFuzz
Ricochet
Russtifinko

Day 6 "don't lynch" includes Bullzeye. I'm not automatically perturbed that a confirmed mafioso is on this list, because mistakes happen to everyone. What troubles me is that I have no idea why Marsh came to this perspective by this point in the game. His only content relevant to Bullzeye before this point had largely read-independent questions and to contest Bullzeye's Devin-was-saved agenda. Honestly considering the way Bullzeye played this game from the word "Go" it's hard to understand how anyone would include him on this list, and I don't see content in MM's history to support this.

Things like this are exactly why I ask people these silly questions and for GTH reads. This is a distinct and important point in which MM took a significant stance on a player and it can allow us to judge him more conclusively.

I don't know if I have a good explanation for this. Even though I had mentioned him a few times before, nothing jumped out at me that made me want to consider putting my vote on him, so I included him on my Don't Lynch list.

8/10 points

- He GTH reads Bullzeye as good on Day 7.

- Bullzeye is the towniest shade of blue in a Day 9 rainbow.

Spoiler: show

Bullzeye

Most interesting bit to me. What makes you feel good? I wanna feel good.

All vibes. My read also hasn't changed on him for a couple days, so there's that.

I asked him what made him feel good about Bullzeye. He gave me "vibes".

It's Day 9 and we're talking about "vibes".

Yeah. And I realized that when you asked me that question, though I admitted that I had not bothered to consider a change by paying attention to him.

10/10 points

Spoiler: show

I'm voting Bullzeye for right now.

I'm reading your Bullzeye post now.

How about RadicalFuzz?

Linki: Russ, I didn't intend to call Epignosis stupid. I was taking a popular idiom and inserting Epignosis's name into it.

MM tells Epi he's reading his case against Bullzeye on Day 9. I don't see any post in which he shares his thoughts on that case though.

In case you couldn't tell, I can be all over the place. I never did respond to your BR ISO (though I still have half of a response in a draft). I've not finished my ISO on you. When I become this invested in analyzing a game, this is just what happens. See Flash Mafia, and forigve me for not being as responsbile as some players.

5/10 points

Spoiler: show

I have played with Bullz a number of times, and mainly when he's been a baddie, I believe. The one thing I remember well is that he gets HYPER defensive over relatively little things, and generally over defends himself and convinces everyone he's bad. Iirc he's had some pretty spectacular flameouts as a baddie.

Has he had any spectacular flameouts as a townie?

Harry Stephen Keeler rings a bell.

I have played with Bullz a number of times, and mainly when he's been a baddie, I believe. The one thing I remember well is that he gets HYPER defensive over relatively little things, and generally over defends himself and convinces everyone he's bad. Iirc he's had some pretty spectacular flameouts as a baddie.

Has he had any spectacular flameouts as a townie?

Harry Stephen Keeler rings a bell.

Never mind, he was mafia in that game.

What do you make of Bullzeye being pretty subdued in his treatment of Mac, who accused him often?

It seems like a scumtell, especially considering the history behind Bullzeye as mafia.

I'll double-check his teammate interactions as mafia in past games if I get a chance.

Epi expanded on his meta read of Bullzeye which led to an extended discussion on the matter. He explores the meta question a little bit with past game examples and ends up granting that Bullzeye's subdued handling of Mac's accusation "seems like a scumtell" before pledging to double-check further.

Spoiler: show

Flash was unconventional, but Bullzeye and I had a good back and forth (I was "bad", but I don't consider Flash a true Mafia game).

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/search ... 2&sr=posts

Last Man Standing was another unconventional one (again, not a true Mafia game), but:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/search ... 5&sr=posts

My point in all this is that Bullzeye seemed perfectly fine with MacDougall calling him bad.

That's unlike him if he's a civilian, from my experience.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 041#p87041

Monty Python. Here's a normal mafia game (closed setup). Bullzeye is mafia, and Long Con is his teammate. Long Con says Bullzeye is info-dumping, but Bullzeye "shrugs it off", even while he is heatedly calling Boogs a liar for his accusations.

MM draws out a specific example of a game in which Bullzeye, as mafia, behaved similarly to what he did in response to Mac in this game. Seems like a pretty significant find, we'll see what effect it has on MM's read. There's evidence of a shift here in MM's perspective of Bullzeye, but there hasn't been a distinct accusation yet.

MM talks to Choutas about Bullzeye and the flavor of this post is mostly soft-defensive. Choutas asserted a single statement Bullzeye made was pingy and MM dissuaded that read. He then qualified that he felt Bullzeye as a townie has the tendency to react abrasively to info-dumping as opposed to cases -- a step back from the prior progression MM was making away from the town read on Bullzeye.

One obvious question I'd ask is: why would Bullzeye abrasively combat info-dumping about him if he's town? The rule-breaking might not be savory, but it wouldn't threaten his position in the game like it might if he is mafia. In any event the important thing here is that MM's momentary straying from the town read seems to be ending here.

I assumed that Bullzeye would act abrasively if info was dumped even as civilian. He is very anti-infodumping and rule-breaking (especially when it involves him), so I assumed that would be his behaviour.

2/10 points

Spoiler: show

But hey, I did learn some things from skimming through players' posts looking for all of their votes cast. Here are quick thoughts I have on players.

Bullzeye - There's that MacDougall interaction that Epignosis. But everything else feels less... bad. Nothing stood out as super-civ, but nothing bad either. I don't know I'll have to revisit him again I think. After browsing through 6 other players after Bullzeye, my thoughts are all over the place now.

Choutas - I commented on the votes already. He's often voted early without changing his vote beyond that. The only exception was seemingly to try and save a lynched mafia. He has dropped in my rainbow list.

Diiny - His contributions have not been great. Like Bullzeye, I had thoughts before, which have been replaced by the other players I've looked at since, but I do recall him being very go-along in his demeanor.

DrWilgy - His case on Day 2 against Long Con looks really good (barring at strategic bussing attempt). He's still been pretty solid since then. He helped lynch MacDougall on Day 6, and his votes outside of just seemed solid. Also, like Strawhenge, there was a point where he was trying to push an idea that relied on info, before he realized the error in his ways. Like Strawhenge, I think this is a good look for the doctor.

RadicalFuzz - Voting record doesn't look good. His attitude is solid and consistent, but he's done a good job at not committing to any reads on players that happened to flip mafia, specifically MacDougall and Floyd. Each of his votes has not resulted in a lynch with two exceptions. 1) espers on Day 5. Espers did lead the lynch 8-6 over Devin, but Devin was lynched instead due to vote manipulations. 2) Fuzz voted sig on Day 9, but that was a self-preservation vote. Thus, both of these exceptions get stars next to them, and don't make his vote record very solid.

Russtifinko - My mind has been changed on Russti. I think I may have tunneled on him quite a bit this game. Russti has not been afraid of making a decisive vote, whether it be on a baddie or a civilian. This consistent aggressive strategy has more potential to come from a civilian than a mafia member, in my opinion. He's got balls, and his output has been consistent throughout this game. Yes he has said several things that seem waffly/weird, but he's generally been open-minded as well, not afraid to trust another player when he was not certain (which was the case in the Long Con lynch).

Strawhenge - I can't see him being mafia at all. I've got a role pegged for him right now, and I've seen strong flashes of a civilian playstyle that I've noticed in my RYM research of him. I also completely understand the effects of burnout.

Compare the language MM employs here to talk about Bullzeye with the language he uses about every other read in this post. Only with Diiny does he offer up a waffle of a sentence like "I had thoughts before, which have been replaced by other players I've looked at since". He still gives a distinct read on Diiny though -- that his contributions have been poor and him being "go-along". These are criticisms, even if the post does not commit to moving against him. With everyone else he comes to a clear read.

In retrospect this all looks awful. This was a product of me doing the Bullzeye vote-count at night (and Choutas and I think Diiny as well), doing the rest the next morning, and compiling my thoughts afterward. My thoughts on the first three players were less coherent and fresh than the other player because of the belated compiling.

But yes this looks awful. I don't have a defense for this, other than I just felt surer about reads on other players, and cared more to pursue them.

10/10 points

With Bullzeye, he is the Great Emperor Waffle of Eggopolis. He acknowledges that the MacDougall interaction Epi and I mentioned exists, but he doesn't actually say anything about it. He doesn't say anything about anything with regards to Bullzeye.

"Nothing stood out as super-civ, but nothing bad either. I don't know I'll have to revisit him again I think."

This sentence can be found the Mafia Encyclopedia of Non-committal Reads.

He did give us a rainbow immediately after this post though.

Spoiler: show

Thus far, my rainbow list looks like this.


Strawhenge
Russtifinko
DrWilgy
Bullzeye
Diiny
Choutas
RadicalFuzz

Dead center.

Spoiler: show

I have no problem with you lynching me I am cool with that. Really. It's just hilarious everyone bothered to case me on Day 10(some did the previous day, it isn't directed to everyone). I wanted out of the game anyway. The only sad thing about my lynch is that town will get fucked and most likely lose the game.

By all means guys lynch me. Call my reads laughable, bully me and spit on me and lynch me like Jesus.

Then Choutas said, "MP, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing." And they divided up His garments by casting lots.

F*** you're doing it too Choutas. Buck up and play the game. I know it's lasted an eon but I don't give a crap. IrritatedJimmyJay.

You call Bullzeye's situation a concession, but you cheer Choutas on.

Yer damn right.

Vote compilation -- the effort here is appreciated regardless of your alignment MM. I must say though that you put up a lot of posts within this framework and I'm not sure you did very much to take anything from it. In RYM #82 I put up a complete vote compilation as a mafioso because it was the easiest way to Look The Part without actually doing anything. I think it's a good possibility this is the same thing.

I'll be honest. After I did all of this vote-compiling (and going through half of your posts), I felt very... uneasy (I think that's the word I want). I felt a little burnout. I felt like everyone had a reason to be bad. Everything I was reading was easy to accept and acknowledge, I just completely lost the drive to properly analyze things and instead accepted them at face-value.

So I took a long weekend to recharge, dunno if that will be enough.

null points

Spoiler: show

Like twice. Maybe three times. Answering posts that directly relate to me and facts I know because I'm me is much easier than reading through hundreds of posts and forming in-depth views based on careful analysis. I'm not even trying to defend myself from being lynched here, I'm just defending against the idea that my having been quiet and uninvolved is in any way related to my alignment.

The idea here isn't that quiet Bullzeye = bad Bullzeye. It's that maintaining an interest in responding to accusations and very little else for days and days is rather fundamental scumtell in Mafia. You fit the mold. Here's the problem: you're insisting that affecting this game in any other way is impossible without "forming in-depth views based on careful analysis". That is not the only option a townie has at his disposal. Most townies never even bother to perform "careful analysis". You've done close to nothing.

Various others were never caught up full with this game and still tried to provide something meaningful. bcornett is an example who comes to mind -- constantly behind the pace of the game, but when he was around he'd put something of value in the thread.

This is a very good point, actually.

Linki: that's what I'm doing right now. Get out of my head.

This is a very good point, actually.

Linki: that's what I'm doing right now. Get out of my head.

Why is it a good point? What about this point resonates with Metalmarsh89?

The whole salami.

Your comparison of Bullzeye to bcornett, in that brian complained about keeping up, but still managed to state his opinion at times. Strawhenge has been acting similarly, but you have a townread on him, as do I.

But my question to you is, what is your read on Choutas?

I explained to MM why I felt Bullzeye's late game behavior (Day 10 at this point) was so suspicious to me that I said he was conceding as a mafioso by drawing a comparison to bcornett (a townie who had a lot of trouble keeping up with the game but still did his best to stay relevant when he could).

Marsh thought I made a "very good point". What about the point did he like? "The whole salami".

He prodded me for a read on Choutas in the meanwhile.

Spoiler: show

Choutas

Between Bullzeye and Choutas, I'd rather lynch Choutas.

This is possible the worst vote of the entire game by any player in it. If you look back in Marsh's posts for justifications for his Choutas vote, they exist, but not in any confidence-inspiring clear manner. He mostly criticized Choutas for voting early consistently (this is not a strong accusation frankly) and making one bad vote when he wasn't early. When your entire analytic focus is voting records, it's pretty easy to find someone who looks like a dope and fling poop at them. Even still though, the progression of MM's posts seems tailored to the survival of Bullzeye at the expense of Choutas until the day expires -- without inspiring confidence like I said.

Yes it looks bad. No other way to put it.

Moreover, when he explained his Choutas vote -- it wasn't even about his voting record. It was this:

Spoiler: show

Choutas

Between Bullzeye and Choutas, I'd rather lynch Choutas.

Now that we're on the other side, why did you prefer him to Bullzeye? I went a bit back through your posts and couldnt really see.

Jay brought up Bullzeye's recent behavior. I thought it was a good point. But then I noticed Choutas' behavior today as well. Early on this Day phase, he made about not having time to play and getting modkilled. Then, as the day grew late and it grew more likely he would be lynched, he got more into defending himself. I misread this, thinking he was a member of mafia, trying to bluff us.

I feel bad about it. I didn't have a lot of confidence in the vote, but took it upon myself to break the tie anyway.

motel room specifically asked him why he preferred Choutas over Bullzeye. Instead of referencing his prior voting record compilations (which would have been dubious enough), he cited Choutas's EOD behavior. He acknowledged that I made a "very good point" about Bullzeye's behavior (indeed, "the whole salami" of the point), but moved against Choutas instead without saying why.

If this mindset existed when the Choutas vote was being placed, why did MM not actually express it? He said he preferred to lynch Choutas and voted for Choutas and that was it. It wouldn't have been hard for him to simply say either to Choutas or to everyone else "I am voting for Choutas because I think his current behavior clashes with his prior stated threats to pursue a modkill". Instead, we get it after the fact and it reads like an excuse.

Spoiler: show

Bullzeye being mafia is not supported by Epignosis's theory, for what it's worth.

Night 5 posts

bcornett24- 0 posts
Bullzeye- 10 posts
Choutas- 12 posts
Diiny- 0 posts (0 posts Day 6 also)
DrWilgy- 0 posts
Elohcin- Isn't even reading the thread 3 posts
Epignosis- Count yourself if you care
JaggedJimmyJay- 14,241 posts
Matt F- 24 posts
Metalmarsh89- 24 posts
motel room- 0 posts
RadicalFuzz- 11 posts
Ricochet- 27 posts
Russtifinko- 10 posts
sig- 0 posts
Strawhenge- 2 posts
TheFloyd73- The Mountain Comes to Mohammad

This post might not mean much but I'll bring it up. He defended Bullzeye against "mafia" suspicion in light of Epi's serial killer theory. This is a weird goof up to make though because pretty much everyone suspecting Bullzeye was doing so on the basis that he's mafia, not that he's the SK.

It could just be oversight because I didn't even notice it when I responded to this post originally.

Oversight. I meant SK, not mafia.

null points

Spoiler: show

Because he is obvscum. Bullzeye is scum. Fuzz is scum. Look to the throwaway votes imo.

Look where your top 2 scumreads sit, Jay.

Mac loves his WIFOM. It' all over his ISO. What do you think this says about those two?

I feel the same way. But as Ricochet pointed out, MacDougall immediately reversed his opinion of Fuzz, calling Wilgy scum and Fuzz town. Fuzz then pushed for a CFD of Wilgy.

MM references a specific Mac post which might suggest Fuzz and Bullzeye would be a difficult pairing to argue as mafia. He then maneuvers this into a case against Fuzz and not Bullzeye.

Spoiler: show

Jay, I'll entertain your notion that RadicalFuzz and Bullzeye are mafia. I noticed this post from RadicalFuzz on Night 5.

Bullzeye, if you're still here, how have my posts in the last hour changed your opinion of me? Feel free to do a simple before and after analysis instead of a short answer. I'll read it.

Fuzz asks Bullzeye to analyze Fuzz's recent posts and explain why his opinion has changed. Looking at Bullzeye's posts, he did not mention any change in heart on RadicalFuzz, or any read of Fuzz at all. Here is Bullzeye's response.

I don't know that they've had any impact at all to be honest. I've never suspected you regardless. I actually have a fairly good vibe about you, I think you've been making good efforts to get involved and find baddies. I might not always think you're right, but as of now I haven't seen a reason to think you're bad yet.

Link to the start of the conversation. RadicalFuzz is forcing Bullzeye to take a stance on him, and Bullzeye does. But RadicalFuzz's approach to Bullzeye isn't consistent with what was stated before.

MM entertains the notion of a Fuzz/Bullzeye pairing by checking into their interactions. This might be important because MM continued to push a Fuzz lynch all day while Bullzeye was still more likely to be lynched (as was Wilgy). If Fuzz weren't dead, this might be something MM would employ against him right now. That's only relevant if Fuzz was town though.

Admittedly, it's not very likely that RadicalFuzz is mafia at this point. Possible, but unlikely.

Either the SK bought into the idea that RadicalFuzz was mafia, or he's more interested in setting me up. (and this is why I don't like your day-opening statement, because it could have come with that idea in mind).

Spoiler: show

Of the two, which do you find more suspicious MM?

RadicalFuzz. I think that particular conversation looks bad for both of them, and there are other factors with regards to RadicalFuzz that I/you/somebody has brought up before. The CFD. The Floyd slip.

Like I said, RadicalFuzz asked Bullzeye why Bullzeye's opinion of him changed, and Bullzeye had never stated an original opinion of Fuzz to begin with, late alone changed a previous one. Bullzeye's answer is not great, but I still think that RadicalFuzz put words into Bullzeye's mouth there, and forced Bullzeye to take a stance. It is consistent with RadicalFuzz's intent on someone reading him as bad though, I will admit that.

Linki: Fuzz, you asked Bullzeye "How have my posts changed your opinion of me" when Bullzeye did not have an opinion of you. Can you explain the meaning of that statement?

He specifically selects Fuzz as the more suspicious of the two.

Spoiler: show

Actually, I would tinfoil Strawhenge as mafia as well.

I'd list Bullzeye as low-hanging fruit.

Bullzeye is MM's low-hanging fruit.

Spoiler: show

Guys, I deserve to die for missing the vote yesterday. I'm so ashamed I never miss votes! I was just so tired I forgot.

Ok, Bullzeye. :P

The Bullzeye vote we needed before finally comes on Day 11 in the form of banter.

Spoiler: show

I almost forgot.

JaggedJimmyJay. My vote's back on you now.

Just returning to the status quo, and taking the pressure of Bullzeye in the hopes that he respond to your request.

Welp, there it went. He "took the pressure" off of Bullzeye, which was surely suffocating given that banter vote.

Spoiler: show

Just returning to the status quo, and taking the pressure of Bullzeye in the hopes that he respond to your request.

I deserve to die because I intend to respond. Not necessarily tonight, maybe tomorrow during the day since there's plenty of time. I'm still reading and don't know how long it will take. I deserve to die for being tired and slow at reading as well as not psychic. My many failures are a great source of shame.

You're not my number one lynch option, my vote for you was in jest.

I know you may not have caught up yet, but just know that though you did receive a few votes yesterday, you're not necessarily everyone's number one lynch option. Everybody (except motel room) is fair game today, and should be treated as such.

This kind of content is quite important, as this is MM speaking directly with Bullzeye in the heat of the moment -- team mate relationships can be affirmed or denied in these kinds of interactions. In this case he is offering encouragement to Bullzeye by assuring him he isn't automatically going to be lynched. I don't think this post is incompatible with a team mate relationship.

Ok, now you're tunneling.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show

He could also be a baddie who doesn't have time to catch up or he could be a civvie who has not interest in catching up.

Pick one.

I made a similar assertion about Choutas yesterday, and you found the decision to do so uninspiring. Why the fuck would you ask me to do the same thing again today?

MM waffled on Bullzeye some more and then freaked out when I asked him to take an actual stance.

You already called my behavior from the day before a bad look (and the worst vote in the game). Asking someone to do something you can incriminate them for later is a bad strategy.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show

Bullzeye, are you keeping your cards close to your chest knowing what will result if you are lynched?

Is it possible for this question to yield an insightful response on Day 11?

Spoiler: show

Who are you voting, rico?

Tell me what you think of this radfuzz bullzeye thing too

Come lynch RadicalFuzz with me.

Is this to rico or me?

either way: why not bullzye; why not wilgy?

I don't agree with the case on DrWilgy.

I'm not opposed to lynching Bullzeye. He's my second option.

But you're asking Rico what he thinks of RadicalFuzz/Bullzeye. I want to know what you think.

Reaffirms his preference for Fuzz as the lynch of the day over Bullzeye.

Spoiler: show

His desire has amounted to "vote RadicalFuzz with me" so pardon me if I'm not impressed.

If one vote to four at 45 minutes till deadline isn't an off-wagon, then at what point does it become one?

When the lynch is over and the votes are official. You can't declare a winner until the clock hits zero.

Linki: I'm somewhat wary of a Bullzeye lynch right now because nobody has denied the interest in voting against it.

The highlighted statement might be fun, because MM was the one who denied having the interest in voting against it -- he sideline-supported the Bullzeye lynch while maintaining a preference for Fuzz (and used his vote accordingly).

Define fun.

Bullzeye spew about Metalmarsh89:

Spoiler: show

Haven't been able to catch up as much as I'd have liked to and it's way too late for me now, so as I said earlier I'm going to have to random this one. Hopefully the night phase will allow me to catch up properly and get into the game! Randomizer is telling me to *Vote for MM*. I only hope he can find it in his heart to forgive me.

Bantery Day 1 vote excused as "random"? This post is quite belabored. I am not sure it was really random. That implies a strategic intent.

Spoiler: show

What does everyone think about MM?

Then, what does everyone think about MM's "death wishes / death-deserving" posts? I'm seeing them in my revisit of Day 4 and they give me pause. MM's banter and evasive game can serve both his good or bad persona, but those posts suddenly make me think a bit back to how a civvie MM can usually tend to act hinty. Anyone seeing anything of this nature?

Pretty sure he's not the only person to have made such posts. I think it's a punishment of some kind for inactivity. Are you suggesting you think he's hinting that we should lynch him or something?

Rico mentions the deathwish posts re: MM and Bullzeye offers a soft defense. This is an easy post for Bullzeye to make regardless of MM's alignment. He bothered to make it though so judge as you may.

Spoiler: show

Here's a view of Day 4's lynch with the two main players involved at the forefront.

Devin the Omniscient
9
bcornett24 (15), Sorsha (16), JaggedJimmyJay (22), Bullzeye (23), Black Rock (25), Ricochet (26), Golden (27), DrWilgy (31), Epignosis (33) 27%

Sorsha
10
Choutas (6), seaside (8), Devin the Omniscient (9), Strawhenge (11), motel room (17), Matt F (20), Elohcin (24), MacDougall (28), espers (29), Russtifinko (30) 30%

My question to any player pointing the Day 4 lynch out as a save: Why could it be a save?

Sorsha led the lynch 4-0, 6-2, and 10-7. It was tied at one point at 7-7, but at no point did Devin lead the lynch (unless someone had switched their vote from one to the other, which I have not looked into yet). If this was a save attempt, MacDougall, espers, and Russtinfinko look the worst for their votes.

Looking back Bullzeye is the only one who pointed out "save attempt". But he mentioned no names to be doing the saving.

Also, I do not forgive him for voting for me on Day 3.

Did I not mention Russ like 3 times? Also I thought it had been tied at 9-9 with Russ breaking the tie, but I was tired and misremembering. The reason I think the lynch looks shifty is that every time Devin got near Sorsha's vote count, Sorsha got a bunch more votes to keep her ahead. Obviously not all of these could have come from baddies, but it looks odd to me. Specifically Sorsha's final three votes which all came in one string to keep her ahead. I've said that already as well, I'm pretty sure.

I haven't gotten the chance to look at Devin. Is there any case or points you can point me to that would explain his 9 votes from Day 4?

The other part of the lynch being a possible "save" hinges on Devin being bad. I still have not read everything that has happened in this thread, and I don't know if I will, so some assistance would be welcome.

This was directed at Bullzeye, but any response from a Devin suspector is welcome.

Well Devin wasn't my strongest suspect. While I did suspect him, the main reason I voted for him was because once she got past the defeatism I felt Sorsha came off very genuine in her defences and had begun to feel quite good about her overall, so didn't think she should be lynched. I felt a Devin lynch was more worthwhile, and more feasible than lynching anyone else I'd thought of (i.e. Russ, I think my only supporter in that case was poor FZ).

As to why exactly I did suspect Devin: There was his blendiness around the LC lynch which has been pointed out a few times as a possible connector between the two of them. I think blendy in general would be a fair description - his posts also have quite a bit of fluff to them, I find. Not to mention, up until naming a few suspects tonight he doesn't ever do very much in the way of discussing his suspicions or adding to existing debates on people. When I look at his posts I feel what SVS was saying about me in Recruitment - he has a fairly solid amount of posts for having given such a small amount of opinions.

You were his teammate in Recruitment, so I'd be interested in your perspective when you get the chance to give him a proper look over.

Bullzeye explains his Devin-was-saved agenda to MM. I don't believe there was a follow-up on this as I mentioned earlier.

Spoiler: show

I am putting a vote onto Russ, based on what MacDougall said. I really don't have the time to catch up fully and form a solid opinion right now. Voting for Russ is the best I can do.

Black Rock replaced AceofSpaces. This was one of AceofSpaces' only two posts of the game before he subbed out, in which he followed a known teammate's suspicion to vote Russti, being the second vote on him and about an hour before the deadline.

I asked Mac if he wanted to lynch Russti, who had quickly gained four votes, and was looking like a decent lynch candidate (trailing birdwithteeth 4-7). Instead, Mac left his vote on the less popular reywas (now RadicalFuzz).

These things considered, I think Russtifinko is mafia.

Finally someone agrees!

Bullzeye celebrates dramatically when MM makes a move against Russ on Day 7.

Bullzeye responds to Epi's case as well as some Marsh content.

Epi's stuff was a lot more scathing than MM's, so the responses bear that out. Bullzeye is defending himself against Epi and explaining himself to MM.

Guys, I deserve to die for missing the vote yesterday. I'm so ashamed I never miss votes! I was just so tired I forgot.

Ok, Bullzeye. :P

Just because I deserve to die (and I do) doesn't mean you should kill me. That'd be too obvious.

Spoiler: show

Just returning to the status quo, and taking the pressure of Bullzeye in the hopes that he respond to your request.

I deserve to die because I intend to respond. Not necessarily tonight, maybe tomorrow during the day since there's plenty of time. I'm still reading and don't know how long it will take. I deserve to die for being tired and slow at reading as well as not psychic. My many failures are a great source of shame.

Bullzeye's empty promise to do something with his time in the game falls at MM's feet.

You were keen on scum-spew yesterday. What did you derive from Bullzeye's scumspew of me?

~~~

Conclusion:

It's really easy to see MM in a bad light here. It's just not a good look at any juncture really. The prior analyses re: MM have been rather inconclusive, but this is distinctly bad and icky.

Not convinced? I think a good case can be made that he's the SK too. I'll work on that after I get a little sleep though.

[motel room]

motel room


Motel - Black MacCon - Motel

Spoiler: show

Interactions with LC
-- finds LC's flip from bea to sig "pressured and gross", backpedalling
-- comments to FZ on finding LC suss, on his D1 mention of him, on Choutas voting for him...
-- suss's LC based on a comment to lynch seaside, votes him
-- doesn't find the lynch status bad, compared to Epig calling it ""cliquish"
-- defends against Sorsha calling him flip-flopping between LC and Choutas (calls them both suspicious)
-- votes back LC, not feeling b24 wagon, considering Llama
-- comments on tight EoD
-- (post-lynch) questions Choutas voting LC
-- (post-lynch) calls LC defenders dodgiest
-- (post-lynch) creates scenarios in which bea might be teammate or not
-- (post-lynch) questions Matt's read of Choutas being civvie
-- (post-lynch) D6 finds theory on LC setting up a planned bussing far-fetched
-- (post-lynch) rebuttal to Rico on switching between LC and Choutas
-- (post-lynch) rebuttals to Matt

Interactions with MacBaddie
-- votes MacBaddie for CEO
-- doesn't get seaside's suspicion of MacBaddie, questions him what Mac did on D0
-- in reply to Llama, reads Mac genuine
-- questions his switch from Sorsha D4, calls it bandwagon; finds his tactics further muddy
-- D5 finds Mac towny and his theory about Epi most likely
-- D6 still finds Mac town, despite buss theory
-- D6 discusses voting tactics with Mac: joining him on Epig lynch
-- doesn't get why JJJ has Mac higher than Wilgy on his to-be-lynched options
-- in reply to Choutas, would vote to save Mac
-- fends off Rico's thought that him defending Mac makes him look bad
-- doesn't see why he should vote Wilgy, at Mac's request
-- reiterates seeing townmac
-- confused about Strawhenge not voting in any way for Mac or Diiny
-- (post-lynch) rebuttals to Matt on pressuring Strawhenge

Interactions with Black Rock
-- D6 doesn't get why BR is lynch contender
-- suddenly considers BR wagon
-- "could do a black rock vote" and then does
-- reads her bad in D7 GTH

LC interactions with motel
-- accidentally includes motel in his suss'ing of players who talked about Flowers
-- fends off motel's suspicion at his comment on lynching seaside

MacBaddie interactions with motel
-- D2 questions why motel switched to Choutas
-- reads him good in D3 GTH
-- banter vote and reaction to him about switching D4 votes
-- makes an analysis of D5 devin voters, but doesn't bring up motel
-- D6 calls for reads on metal, for being remarkably subdued
-- puts motel room in his final D6 scumlist
-- asks motel to vote Wilgy instead of Diiny
-- appreciates motel's effort to save him, albeit finding them useless, once Russ added a 7th vote

Black Rock interactions with motel
-- only interested in a correction in my reads of him or Mac
-- inquired by him about Choutas, never gives a serious answer

Votes
D1 votes sig for his verbosity and possible slipping
D2 votes LC for suspicions, switches to Choutas for him to explain his LC vote, votes back LC
D3 votes Epig as possible LC teammate defender, keeps it there
D4 votes Sorsha for placeholding, never returns with more reasons
D5 votes espers, only relates to seaside's trio pick from D4
D6 votes on Diiny counterwagon
D7 pursues Russ for being the least brought up by Mac (?); susses seaside and Choutas, votes seaside

Read
So I imagine that I'd eventually have to churn between the LC bussers, unless the remaining mafia is really comprised of nothing but them (which sounds unlikely or just damn foolish); previously, I felt a few details in motel's ISO (such as timing and context of D2 vote) placed him slightly better than the others, but this last revision doesn't make him look good overall. Suspects LC's flip-flop D1, but votes for the same player as LC, partly suspecting sig for the same issues. I actually like him sussing Choutas on his D2 vote - and in fact I am becoming very interested in how a motel - choutas relation would read, upon one of these player's flip - but his own switches can still read like LC early placement and detachment on a left field candidate whilst the wagon was at a halt; I'll keep his comeback on LC still under debate: it can be, like he said, a good read on the LC wagon waning and wanting to stress his preference in that direction; it can be safe, prompt bussing, under a tin foil version. Mac townreading reads as perpetual as JJJ's; his counterwagon moves aren't too great, of course. On the other hand, Mac reads overall quite distant from ever interacting much with motel, up until, what do you know, motel's suddenly suss and scum on D6. Black Rock switcheroo from "what why suss BR" to "yeah let's BR" is just bananas. For some of his other votes I can't find proper reasoning and they look dreadful, given timing and complacency to never elaborate on them. Lynch candidate.

Something extra. Motel through the bussing LC lens

Spoiler: show

Also quick to tell that LC's case on bea comes off as too strong, but this is in reply to llama's questionnaire on whether bea reacted in a genuine way to LC's vote and case on her.
Starts picking on several things sig said afterwards. Quite insistent on it.
Invites, however, at one point sig to join him on a LC wagon. Ironically, neither ever do.
Calls out LC's flip on sig as "pressured and gross, backpedalling".
DAY ENDS. His vote remains on sig from early banter with him. Not only did he reacted strongly to LC's case and counter-case, along the way, but also invited to a LC wagon, yet nothing from this made him put the stamp on LC.
Incresingly suspicious of every move by LC. Votes him.
Switches to Choutas (for his unexplained vote on LC?). Also considers JJJ lynch.
Goes back to LC, picking him over b24.
DAY ENDS.

Well if LC clearly instructed his teammates to take a stance against him, to the point of bussing when things get totally serious, it's simply unnerving. Don't know what to make of MR. His LC sussing looks so on point, but his D1 flipping is, to put it in his words, "gross" and the vote switches during D2 feel a bit as if he was testing the waters for alternatives or for distancing, but then returned to LC, almost as if shit got serious and he was aware he previously sussed LC enough not to do a stupid move and get out of orbit.

Onwards
> First thought of D3 is that people who defended LC's meta are most suspicious: Sorsha and Epi. Goes with Epi.
> Still wants to hear from Choutas' LC vote.
> Sig is suddenly good.
> JJJ lynch being considered no more.
> Also brings an LC-bea link theory.
DAY ENDS. His vote stayed on Epi all along.
> D4 votes Sorsha for placeholder, oh oh!
> Talks other topics, including Mac potentially bandwagoning on Sorsha.
DAY ENDS. His vote remained on Sorsha.

It's 5am and I don't want to die from exhaustion, so I'll stop here and resume later. I've left enough for now, anyway. I should in theory do JJJ as well and might just do him in full, but you have my crazy gut read on him. I'll grant him this though, compared to what I've revisited above on the other "LC critics", he has been rather more inquisitive and going through all the questioning/analysing stages by comparison. Overall, it'd be a sheer craftsman work, unlike anything I've seen, if he truly bussed LC. Gonna mull on this further.

Motel - Floyd - Motel

Spoiler: show

Interactions with Floyd
-- D2 excuses Floyd as overwhelmed debutant
-- D6 only curious if Floyd got PMs to discuss RL; further banter/bait about Floyd saying he didn't receive PM's on that topic
-- asks Floyd to give thoughts on who should be lynched between Mac and Diiny
-- acknowledges baiting Floyd with the PM topic, but wary of having lynched only townies before with this tactic
-- D7 asks Matt why he's so certain about Floyd
-- defends against Matt's case on him; re never pursuing his bait on Floy further and other posts
-- reads Floyd good in D7 GTH
-- not confident about a Floyd lynch; continues to say he feels Floyd will flip town

Read
This being the same motel who townread/counterwagoned another confirmed mafia in MacBaddie, it makes me quite interested to find out if he didn't keep the same stance on Floyd as well, as a teamie. Him baiting Floyd, acknowledging Floyd's answer wasn't good, acknowledging that he's wary he'd catch a town with this tactic (like many times in the past), yet then reading Floyd town feels a bit like a jump in ideas. "I'm doubting myself that my bait always brings good results" doesn't really sound the same as "I'm townreading this player because of my doubts that my bait always brings good results"

Votes & third read

Spoiler: show

Vote record stands at one confirmed baddie (LC), three mislynches (Sorsha, seaside, sig), one vote on an ultimately confirmed civilian (sig) and three unconfirmed (Epignosis, Diiny, Russ). Interesting ratios, compared to others, I'll say.

Timing and position wise, very variable. Late return on LC, first shooter on Epig D3 (can it be that he wanted to avoid any of the following hot topics: Golden vs JJJ, Sorsha, Rico, Rico vs Golden vs Sorsha?). Not too early, not too late on Sorsha and espers. Late (and twisty, as interactions with JJJ show) on Diiny counterwagon. Rather eager to hop on the seaside wagon soon. Early voter again on Russ. Early-ish on sig.

Entourage-wise, he's in a lot of entourage. A freaking lot. Even on that Epig vote on D3 that looks wild (yeah, I remember his sussing Epig for defending LC, just saying how it looks in the frame of the whole D3 events) he has Russ besides him. I don't think recurrent common voters would create any genuine pings here, tbh.

So here's the deal, I'm currently at 1-1 in my "LC bussers" campaign and whilst catching Mac was sweet, sig hurt like hell and made my confidence in the angle drop a fair bit of amount. If I'm to insist on this path and one or two more candidates (motel, JJJ, Choutas even) would result in mislynch, it would basically mean driving the game into lylo. What if the rest of the teamies are actually more in the neutral camp of interaction; after all Mac, for all the antagonism, didn't vote to send LC to his. Black Rock and Floyd hardly reacted to much of anything about him. Then again, if we are to abandon the LC buss zone completely, what remains of the many LC voters remaining? Are they all civ? Did the rest of the mafia really go on completely different paths that Day?

Motel's currently appearing to have been part of a lot of mislynches, a lot of wagons that are still enigmatic and one baddie lynch. Curiously, the only tiny thing that I'm leaning genuine is exactly something motel said about his action to come back on LC on D2: seeing the other wagons (b24 and llama) take over LC and deciding he doens't like those and that he is go back to his. It puts me in doubt that a mafioso would punish his teammate when hope is on the horizon. But it's only a minor doubt.

Then again, how to interpret that regarding Mac's counterwagon D6? If he's really civvie, it means he got dragged up in that wagon by other players (erm which leaves Choutas and JJJ). And he flippy-floppied a lot on that wagon.

So first read of him under my "LC busser" angle made me feel wary of him - say, weakest among Mac and sig. Full interaction reads only made me feel worse. Gut right now tells me to pursue the prospect of voting for his lynch - despite the caution thought in the back in the head about how the LC bussing record stands right now.

What do others think of motel, at this point in this game? Or of what I'm reading on him?

Motel - Bullzeye
-- N4 disagrees with Bullzeye's idea that Devin wagon was a save attempt, questions his views or suspects based on this; later agrees with his judgement, but insert caveat of Devin needing to flip bad in order for any possible confirmation [to be noted, Mac comes in afterwards and mocks motel's input]
-- D7 reads Bullzeye bad in GTH
-- D9 has Bullzeye in colorless orange camp on rainbow [sic] list
-- D10 votes Bullzeye (2nd vote, pushes Bullzeye 2-3 against Chou) for "classic low scum effort"
-- quotes a Russ post in which he suss's him and Bullzeye "for posterity"
-- N10 questions MM prefering Choutas to Bullzeye
-- D11 finds it weird Bullzeye hasn't received votes yet
-- in reply to Diiny, calls Bullzeye top suspect, votes him
-- confused by JJJ's question on Bullzeye's posts being scrutinizable through a townie lens
-- eager to judge Russ based on Bullzeye flip
-- late phase suss on Fuzz's rationale for voting Bullzeye

Bullzeye - motel
-- N4 talk I already highlighted
-- otherwise, nada

Well what a surprise, motel doesn't impress me yet again. Where's the reasoning or background on suddenly reading Bullzeye bad on D7? Where's the reasoning or background for picking up the "classic low scum effort" charge on suss'ing Bullzeye. Where's the reasoning or background for calling Bullzeye top suspect? Granted, his D10 activity, questioning and voting could read as inspired, rather than being anything forced in it. For instance, why bring Bullzeye in D10 wagon contention, as a teamie, if the suspicions on him are still slow burning and Choutas is ahead in the lead? Why throw full shade on him, when the opportunity arises to ponder on the alternative (JJJ's point on applying a townie lens to his activity)?

Idk, C+ for effort and solid exposed material, as always, but purely judging by the votes and stances in the last two cycles, I'll admit it looks slightly better for him.

First up, "MacBaddie" is either a hamburger themed children's character who pushes kids off swings or some douche from Grey's Anatomy.

I'm not splitting this post, I hate that sorry. I'm gonna work backwards through this because its huge. And I think all I can really do in response is to try and explain what my mindset on each of these players were.

Bullzeye - probably started as a borrowed read at some point but definitely soldified over the days as his behaviour became cagey and defensive, and his participation and heart level dropped. I was kinda confident Choutas wasn't scum so voted Bullzeye over him, and when Bullzeye kept up his non-interest I grew in confidence.

[like an hour later lol]
Actually sorry, there's stuff all over the place. Can you distill it to a few key issues? I'm getting swamped at work and need to focus. I hate asking people to do more legwork so I can come back to this later but yeah.

[Marmot]

Jay got a score of 37/130 on my. That's a 28.5%, or a D on a large curve.

But this is mafia where everything is made up and the points don't matter.

[Diiny]

I've been phone bound today, but I'm reading this mm Jay thing with interest at the moment. What a surprise to have heard noting from wilgy. I'll post tomorrow w/ all thoughts and questions and questions.

Can you show me an example of the CEO trust thing from J, MM? I think he's just trying to get you to engage with the straw case itself. Please, show me he's doing what you're claiming because that sounds questionable

[Marmot]

I've been phone bound today, but I'm reading this mm Jay thing with interest at the moment. What a surprise to have heard noting from wilgy. I'll post tomorrow w/ all thoughts and questions and questions.

Can you show me an example of the CEO trust thing from J, MM? I think he's just trying to get you to engage with the straw case itself. Please, show me he's doing what you're claiming because that sounds questionable

There is no Straw case though.

But yeah, there's this post. And there's this one

What do you think?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

1.) At no point did I suggest people should trust me more because of my ACEO position. That's MM talking, not me. I have my reasons for thinking he's bad, and I put up two big cases to express the suspicion in terms everyone can understand.

2.) Anything related to my ACEO role is not going into this thread, and any demands to the contrary will be ignored.

3.) Marsh, why are you grading the case? Your mindset is very difficult to reconcile with that of a townie right now regardless of how hard you think I'm trying. You're being defiant, not earnest.

[Marmot]

1.) At no point did I suggest people should trust me more because of my ACEO position. That's MM talking, not me. I have my reasons for thinking he's bad, and I put up two big cases to express the suspicion in terms everyone can understand.

2.) Anything related to my ACEO role is not going into this thread, and any demands to the contrary will be ignored.

3.) Marsh, why are you grading the case? Your mindset is very difficult to reconcile with that of a townie right now regardless of how hard you think I'm trying. You're being defiant, not earnest.

1&2) Alright, I'll drop the CEO thing. But if your posts that I linked to Diiny aren't related to the CEO thing, then I expect an explanation for the obscure comments in them.

3) You're a harsh bastard, aren't you. Why can't I grade your case?

[Diiny]

I'm pretty sure there are reasons to post shrugging faces and withhold information with A CEO and role bullshit aside. With J playing like he was you would've never come out with that scary level of detail about how straw couldn't know you were bad of your own accord. There's some posts I don't understand, though, so I am being wary. Just because I know town j does this shit I'm not gonna give him a free pass. J, if straws role had nothing to do with it, why continue to discuss it w/ MM? Sorry for probably awful phone post

[Diiny]

If point 2 is correct, j, the weirdness between you n wilgy wouldn't have happened. (Eye emoticon )

[Russtifinko]

Ok, trying to keep this brief because I am dead tired.

False.

Night 5: Nobody was removed from the poll on Day 6, so nobody could have been roleblocked. One of his powers wouldn't have gone through without the other one.

Night 7: Choutas was removed from the poll Day 8, meaning that somebody from the Syndicate was roleblocked. Remember that I am from RYM in this game.

Those were the two nights that Life during Wartime attempted and failed to perform a nightkill. The Night 7 one is more relevant because Strawhenge made his comment on Day 8, and Psycho Killer made a kill attempt that night (that also failed).

My point is that Strawhenge could not have targeted me on Night 7, as his roleblock would have had to gone to a Syndicate member.

So based on this, if we have any idea at all when Choutas might have flipped, then we can figure out whether the SK is Syndicate or RYM, right? And if we do that and cross-reference it with who didn't post on N5, we might be able to narrow down the SK to a very very few players? I would do it myself, but I am unable to figure out whether the above means the SK would be Synd or RYM. I'd be grateful to wiser people who were able to get on it.

I honestly think this might be the most important issue today. I think getting baddies > getting the SK under normal circumstances, but the reality at this point is that this guy could potentially kill twice tonight, and getting him now could save us from that.

[Marmot]

Ok, trying to keep this brief because I am dead tired.

False.

Night 5: Nobody was removed from the poll on Day 6, so nobody could have been roleblocked. One of his powers wouldn't have gone through without the other one.

Night 7: Choutas was removed from the poll Day 8, meaning that somebody from the Syndicate was roleblocked. Remember that I am from RYM in this game.

Those were the two nights that Life during Wartime attempted and failed to perform a nightkill. The Night 7 one is more relevant because Strawhenge made his comment on Day 8, and Psycho Killer made a kill attempt that night (that also failed).

My point is that Strawhenge could not have targeted me on Night 7, as his roleblock would have had to gone to a Syndicate member.

So based on this, if we have any idea at all when Choutas might have flipped, then we can figure out whether the SK is Syndicate or RYM, right? And if we do that and cross-reference it with who didn't post on N5, we might be able to narrow down the SK to a very very few players? I would do it myself, but I am unable to figure out whether the above means the SK would be Synd or RYM. I'd be grateful to wiser people who were able to get on it.

I honestly think this might be the most important issue today. I think getting baddies > getting the SK under normal circumstances, but the reality at this point is that this guy could potentially kill twice tonight, and getting him now could save us from that.

There was only one roleblocker though, and two kills survived. So it is more likely that one player was protected (by his own power or another).

Also, Post #8,000 ftw.

[Marmot]

Oh, and I'll get to the SK case you made as well Jay.

[Russtifinko]

JJJ, I super appreciate you engaging with my case, and having me reread yours.

Again, since I'm trying to be brief, it's hard to address your case point by point. I'll start with: I buy that the scum spew analyses could lead to some useful stuff, but you haven't sold me that what other people say about a player is more valuable than what that player themselves says and does during the game. I'm honestly not sure you will be able to sell me on that, so we may just be at an impasse regarding it.

That said, I think there is some value to the points you brought up. I'll highlight them below, and at the bottom I'll try to briefly say why I agree or don't on a couple.

Attention Russtifinko: (this is not a vote)

There are the points I made about motel room that I thought worked in his favor -- primarily confirmed mafia members saying things that I thought reflected well on him as a non-team mate prospect. Please look these over and tell me where you disagree. I really need to be engaged on these specifically to have much chance of your very different perspective resonating with me.

Mafia spew about motel room:

Long Con

Spoiler: show

As for the "2 out of 7 BWT voters are bad" idea... it's arbitrary and unhelpful. Maybe none of them are bad, and the people trying to push this idea as if it's a real, supported theory are hoping to milk it for 1 to 7 Civvie lynches. Maybe 4 out of the 7 are bad, and the baddie team decided to save one of their own who was getting up there in votes.

A more reasonable theory is that (Nothing But) Flowers is an RYM person who wanted to hide their vote in the biggest bandwagon. That, at least, makes some sense. Talking about that makes me think of someone (McDougal? motel room?) who brought up that role. When I read that post, it felt suspicious to me, like the reason for bringing it up was because they were that role, or at least a teammate. I want to go back and read it again.

Linki: RIP you guys.

This was the post that inspired me to get into this method of analysis. Long Con and Mac had their well-documented exchange about the Flowers role, and here we see LC involving motel room in that matter as well. This is curious because motel room never said anything about the Flowers role. LC forced motel's name into this post for no reason, and I think it's meant to be something that people like me come back and look at later. Anyone was capable of determining that it was Mac who brouhght up the Flowers role, so their mafia-mafia interaction can be easily discerned now. There's no reason for motel room to exist in this post and I think that's because LC attempted to shove a smear job in for good measure. Good look for motel room IMO.

Spoiler: show

Voting Seaside until he explains his numerous arbitrary reads to satisfaction.

Your view of Seaside is right and I agree with it it's just that he told me before the game starts that he'll try his best to get lynched early in order to have more free time. It might sound ridiculous but I know Seaside and he's frankly ridiculous. On the other hand if he stops playing midway he'll be a problem to the mods and us.

It's a lose-lose situation to me.

Ugh. It makes me want to lynch him, but not because I particularly believe he was handed a Mafia card at the start. It's ugly, and ugly is such a smelly word.

I just want to quote this so Long Con doesnt get to drop a vote on someone he's not sold as being scum later on by sewing the seeds for it now. Which is how this feels.

Thanks for keeping an eye on me, but my vote is more likely to go to someone I think is Mafia.

motel room cast suspicion on LC and LC responded with this sort of "whatever dude" incredulity -- a contrast from his mutual antagonism with Mac's criticisms.

Spoiler: show

I'm actually unvoting sorsha and changing my vote to MattF. Something about him is not what it seems my friends. And I aim to get to the bottom of it.

I don't get why you've switched from Sorsha, at one point saying you wont switch for anything less than someone saying "i am scum", to Matt F because of a few "pings". This is a significant bandwagon.

I switched to MattF to get a reaction out of him mate. Sorsha looks safely lynched so I'm pretty much free to throw my vote around to scare scum.

Unvote MattF, vote motel room.

See.

Well like

Now you're just hopping to muddy your intentions even further. Do you think Sorsha is scum or not?

No I'm not. I'm trying to upset you to see if you will break that super cautious posting style you've got there. Please don't state opinions as fact.

Yes gun to head I believe sorsha is scum. I had a bad feeling that there are scum on the wagon but now that a solid Devin wagon is being put together at the last minute in an attempt to get sorsha unlynched, the predictable has occurred when a scum is about be hung so I'm comfy again.

Changing my vote back to sorsha.

Mac claims he is prodding motel room to "break that super cautious posting style" motel room had been exhibiting. This reads to me like an attempt by Mac to simulate a townie mindset by using his vote as a scumhunting tool. This means motel room as the target is a circumstantial presence rather one deliberately sought for the purpose of distancing. I mildly like this for motel room too.

Spoiler: show

Not surprised with any of that.

Two SK kills, no nightkill?

You heard me.

still don't how to feel about this.

The scum don't kill every night ya fucken.

Reads to me as genuine oversight by motel room, and perhaps annoyance by Mac at the plight his team faces with semi-nightly kills. :P

Spoiler: show

"

"There's no alternate bandwagon, so Mac must be good. Let's make an alternate bandwagon"

Is this at someone? Is this suspicion?

It's what just happened.

, said Epignosis in the thread that contained the mafia game being played.", said motel room, implying that commentary is more arms-length distancing shit but whatever.

motel room asks epi a question that he sarcastically replies to and then motel room is starting to see just how not town epi really is itt right now.

Mashes motel room's face into Epi's posts. This doesn't look like team mate interaction to me.

Spoiler: show

I think with the Russ vote there's not much point trying to save me motel room, though I appreciate the effort.

lol. Bite if you want.

TheFloyd73

Spoiler: show

My first lack of inclusion was genuinely from stuff going on in my life that was messing with my head. And I will say AGAIN that if you wish to discuss this further, please PM me.

Has anyone PMed you?

No, not about that topic anyway. would you like to be the first?

Oh ok, like just from teammates?

I hope your head's ok now man.

Thanks, dude. Im feeling a little bit better, but the scars still remain

motel room was the one that prodded Floyd into the PMs scumslip. Floyd bit. It looks like an organic exchange to me.

Spoiler: show

So, which roles remain at the moment?

why are you interested?

I want to know how many Mafia remain. If I can work out who's scum, I could perhaps put roles on them.

Floyd employs one of the few distinct strategic moves he offered in this game. motel room asked him what he was doing, and he tried to explain himself. Again, doesn't look like team mate interaction to me.

~~~

I will look over your points against him now and state my perspectives, Russ.

The green I do find valuable. As for the others: I agree LC treated motel differently than Mac. I'm not sure I buy that LC threw his name in to cast shade, as opposed to just not knowing who wrote it. It was really early in a 34-person game, and I use exactly that mode of language to signify that I can't clearly remember who wrote something, too.

As for the Floyd stuff, I disagree completely with your interpretation. You see a civ prodding a baddie with some success; I see a baddie very lightly prodding another baddie but then never following up on any of the reasonable suspicions that could come to light from it. To me it looks like a way to be able to avoid putting real heat on Floyd while still getting to take credit when he flips bad. I think both are reasonable interpretations, but we're both coming into them from such different starting points that I don't see one of us being convinced (and I mean specifically about the Floyd stuff there; still hoping you can see my case).

I find the BR-Rico post you made somewhat valuable as well, although again, it could just be that Mac was being talked about a lot at that point in the game and so it was obvious why he'd be mentioned there, whereas motel wasn't so much.

The point remains for me, though, that while a few of your points do look good for motel (mildly so, imo), some just don't register with me, and what remains isn't enough to outweigh what he's done as a player so far. I find the Fuzz point you made by far the most convincing one so far. It does seem weird to do something that in hindsight would give Fuzz more civvie cred if motel knew Bullz was bad.

Linki: Ah dammit you're right. Seems likely Blind was targeted by both that Night. Can we at least get a list of Night 5 non-posters who still remain?

[Russtifinko]

4) MM's vote two day periods ago killed Choutas, the only confirmed civvie (and, I would argue, the only civvie) on the block that day. It also saved motel from a 1/3 chance of dying (assuming MP randomizes ties, as he has done in the past). You might say this is far-fetched, but keep in mind that there were 11 players alive at this point. As JJJ said, the worst case for us there is 7-3-1, with their kill coming up and at least one from the SK, so that lynch was absolutely huge.

The next day, he asked MM about it, but didn't apply any real pressure or follow up. Then yesterday, MM spent all day trying to get Fuzz dead instead of Bullz. My suspicion is that Fuzz was drugged, and that if even a single civ had joined him, motel would've hopped on and they'd have taken their chances with the SK, knowing the civs were done.

I want to keep this by itself, but post support (lots of it, sorry) coming.

This is where I think you might be stretching into an overly theoretical realm, Russ. If MM is mafia, then his vote for Choutas can be reasoned more simply as "saved Bullzeye" without needing to implement all of these other motel room-relevant possibilities into the thought process. If you're right, then that means the SK has failed to kill even a single mafioso throughout the entire game. Do you have conviction in making that statement?

Yeah, it's possible I got overly complex here. I'll try to run you through where I'm coming from on this point:

1) motel room is my top suspect. I don't really suspect MM.
2) The vote that killed Choutas undoubtedly saved Bullz, but it also saved motel and it came from motel. So again, you can decide how far-fetched this is, but it's at least possible MM voted motel expecting he'd never be a leader and had to move when he was. It would explain why MM switched to Choutas as opposed to an off-wagon.
3) If you're a baddie, saving 2 baddies is better than saving 1.
So the vote undoubtedly looks super bad for MM, and his vote yesterday isn't inspiring either. But I previously didn't suspect MM to any great degree, and since motel room was involved that's where my eye went first.

So in conclusion, yeah, you're right, a motel room link isn't necessary to see MM as bad here. You could even reasonably say MM would be more likely to save Bullz if it were just the two of them alive, so I see your point.

I've been assuming no baddies killed yet because that's the most conservative assumption, and I think assuming the worst is generally a good move for the civs. I don't have a huge deal of conviction in it, though, as late in the game as we are. Your posts makes me realize though that the difference between looking for lone baddie behavior as opposed to baddie pair behavior could be night and day, so it will probably pay off to consider both perspectives.


I personally feel more sure of motel and would prefer to vote there today. Given your points and his terribad votes, though, I would consider MM as a second option.

Bed.

[DrWilgy]

Going through now and going to hopefully hit everything, I will not finish tonight due to work, but I'll do what I can.

Let me start with the first spew:

Mafia spew review for DrWilgy:

Long Con

Spoiler: show

Congratulations, JJJ and Wilgy!

I don't think it's that likely that JJJ, Epig and the other person all voted as baddies together. Too risky. The votes for JJJ and Wilgy seemed pretty natural to me, as I recall.

Congratulates Doc and I for our Dusk 0 elections, and then says he thinks the votes for both of us seemed "pretty natural". For reference, these were Wilgy's voters on Dusk 0 (in order):

Metalmarsh89, Ricochet, Devin the Omniscient, motel room, and birdwithteeth11

Might be worth chewing on for later.

Spoiler: show

Before any quotes, I'd like to point out an initial suspicion. It never sits right with me when someone claims that they will be changing and/or playing with a different style after role cards have already been distributed. This applies to Rico, and BWT. I'm not going to go back and try to quote the comment because I'm pretty sure it was Day 0. Rico stated that he'd be more zany and BWT followed suit, almost immediately after Rico. I do not recall BWT's reasoning for claiming a more zany (zanier? zaniest? are those actual words? they don't sit right with me.) and would like to hear about this. Also, someone correct me if my memory of Day 0 events are failing me.

I believe a factor of the "zaniness" is the ongoing contest with the prize going to the person who uses the most Talking Heads in their posts. Zanier and zaniest sit fine with me, as the comparative and superlative forms of 'zany'.

Inconsequential banter about the zaniness of Talking Heads lyrics in posts.

MacDougall

- GTH reads him bad on Day 3, never mentioned him prior

Spoiler: show

I guess those who haven't caught up might need some more context on that image. It consists of a game JJJ championed where myself, JJJ, Mac, and Golden stated gun-to-head reads on every single player with only "Good" and "Bad" as the available options, no "Neutral". As you can see, it's a little disconcerting that there was not one player that more than two of us thought was bad.

it pretty much says that one of you guys is scum and doesn't want to agree with other players that scum players look scummy. You actually look the best for giving an enormous amount of scum players. Mac looks the worst for giving only six and two if his are two of my strongest town reads(DrWilgy and MattF).

I also adore how you find sig a consensus townie. Yeah someone in the quartet is deffo scum.

Sig hasn't really done anything that I've noted as overtly bad. Convince me otherwise please instead of just laughing about the fact that others disagree with you.

Explain how having more town reads than scum reads is scummy. Never heard that one before.

Tell me again why DrWilgy and MattF are big town reads for you? Please read my post on MattF before you do though.

Townies, please stop using wifom like it's actually more than just guessing. It makes it hard to scum hunt.

Demands that Choutas expand on his town read of DrWilgy and Matt F. This is Mac's first mention of Doc in the game other than that GTH read, so it's noteworthy that he thinks this is such a significant point to address.

Spoiler: show

linki: I recall one time getting lynched by town because scum Equus made a post that was a flow chart of probabilities that led to me being scum in the majority of cases. We lost the game because she got me lynched. If you are genuinely telling me that "colours and probabilities" are enough for you to say that DrWilgy is a strong town read and that's the towniest post in the game. I might as well just not bother posting actual cases and just make up wifom bullshit about people I have gut scum reads on.

Mac totally discredited DrWilgy's first voting chart from the LC lynch by repeatedly comparing it to a moment in RYM Mafia legend (the Equus Incident of RYM #35 in which she produced a big flow chart of possible endgame scenarios and convinced town to do her bidding as mafia). This isn't the first time Mac has seen a quantitative examination portrayed in a chart or graph in a mafia game, so it's probably significant that he saw fit to hate on DrWilgy's production so much. I think it is likely to mean one of three things:

1. Mac already knows DrWilgy is his team mate and he can thus validly draw the comparison to the Equus Incident and perhaps claim significant credibility later in the event of a DrWilgy lynch/flip

2. Mac feels threatened by Doc's work and pressed hard against it to lessen the danger it poses to his team coming from a genuine source (a town Doc).

3. Mac just sees an opportunity to give someone shit and gives them shit because that's what Mac does.

Here is a link to Mac drawing the comparison, and a visual on DrWilgy's original post.

I don't think it's #2. You can see in Doc's analysis that the three names he implicated as looking the "worst" were Golden, bea, and me. All three of those names are townies, and y'all can at least be sure of two of them. Mac has no reason to feel threatened by an analysis that points town in the wrong direction. #3 is possible enough, but it seems strategically pointless. Mac was pushing suspicion on Doc for much of the game, but it started at this point when Doc was just highly unlikely to be lynched -- especially when he received so much praise for producing this analysis in the first place.

So my thoughts do linger for a long while on #1. It's not hard to view this as preliminary distancing to set the table for bigger moves later -- and we'll see how that develops as I continue.

Spoiler: show

I think we really have to lynch sorsha. I feel like it's the key to breaking the game open today. She either flips scum and leaves behind a tasty breadcrumb trail, or flips town and leaves behind a tasty breadcrumb trail. Trusting Golden again seems like a nice way to get another townie killed. We've got a scum dead inside the first four days in a large game. We can afford a tactical lynch. Sorsha is a good lynch candidate for up front scum play as well as being the best possible lynch from a tactical perspective. Short of someone saying "I am scum" my vote won't be changing today.

Sorsha's play being scum is well documented, you only have to look at her recent posts to get a sense of posting nervously as scum playing poorly with a lynch on them tend to do.

DrWilgy... Are you tunneling me because I said you were scum in that Jimmy's game? Oh my God, u suck brah.

Pretty weak sauce response by Mac to suspicion cast by Doc. Brah.

Spoiler: show

So ummm... Mac, now that we know Sorsha was civ what is the play?

Probably lynch you tbh.

Snarky. Playful. Not at all likely to propel a DrWilgy lynch.

Spoiler: show

DrWilgy, Sig... Speak.

Prods Doc and others to talk more on Day 5.

Spoiler: show

DrWilgy, Sig... Speak.

Sup?

Thanks for the response MM. I'll note it down as soon as I'm home from work.

Just wanted to say hi.

lol

Spoiler: show

Did I mention that I need a replacement?

Look, this cannot happen. Replacements aren't coming.

We've already had to modkill rundontwalk and there may be others to follow. I beg that people do not voluntarily throw in the towel this game, regardless of alignment or RL circumstances, unless they absolutely feel they have to. In doing so, the balance of the game will not be upheld. I do not want to have to modkill more players if I don't have to.

I'm less busy than I was when the game started, irl. I know you're out of replacements

Are you doing that thing where you are just not defending yourself in the hope that town will view your apathy as a town read? Because I don't find that a very townie way of defending yourself.

linki: Does Wilgy just post graphs and stats in every game. I can think of three different effort posts he's made in this game alone but he's not done much with the content he's created on any of the three of them. Just drops it in the thread like a smoke bomb and pisses off.

Throws more shade at Doc for his graphs and charts.

Spoiler: show

It should be rather obvious who I would target Wilgy...

Gives Wilgy a frank answer during Infodumpgate.

Spoiler: show

I get the exact same willies from Wilgy. Probably because I have been victimised by this kind of bullshit before.

Again emphasizes his comparison to the Equus Incident.

Spoiler: show

How did missing your night kill make you feel?

Mac, how sure of this are you?

Floyd, Fuzz, or Matt, did epi miss a night kill?

I am very sure.

Mac gives a confident report to Wilgy implicating Epi as the SK.

Spoiler: show

With the information that I believe you're trying to tell me with that, Wilgy, I don't see how that changes my conclusion. I don't have anything to work off of here, so rather than assume some hidden shenanigans I have to base my conclusions off of what I can see. You're not making me feel better by continually making vague statements that you can't or won't back up when that's a part of my suspicion against you. Until you can convince me otherwise, and I sincerely hope you do, my conclusion is that you're scum and my vote will stay on you.

Metalmarsh, I don't feel inclined to make a case that you're scum at this moment.

See, this guy gets it.

RadicalFuzz tell em all how town I am.

Mac makes this weird post at Fuzz in response to Fuzz casting suspicion on Doc.

Spoiler: show

Gonna GTH the whole mafia team without thinking about it a ton (can't at work):

Black Rock
Diiny
Choutas
motel room
Metalmarsh89
Russtifinko (I know this contradicts my prior thing, oh well)

Are you going to say Mac is bad next?

@Epi, I'm back on phone now and don't have time to quote pull. The reason I believe is because role blocks exist in this game. Psycho killer, can't submit a night action if they don't have one.

Mac, stating that you are SK on a night were there is no psycho kill, and him being a scummy scummertston, fufill all the conditions for him to either be baddie roleblocker, or in btsc with baddie roleblocker. Matt's statement of Mac is bad and Epi is SK help confirm my thoughts, and russ stating that you are most likely SK may place him in the btsc with Mac.

The stench of scum is strong here.

DrWilgy makes an assertion that I don't understand linking Russ to Mac in BTSC, and Mac just gives this brief accusatory response. This continues to be a very distancing-compatible interaction IMO.

- Scumlist on Day 6 includes Doc

Spoiler: show

Self pres voting wilgy

Because he is obvscum. Bullzeye is scum. Fuzz is scum. Look to the throwaway votes imo.

You got me excited that you actually thought I was scum, but then you don't list me in your next post. I feel neglected. I also feel annoyed that you asked me to put in work on post analysis and then call the result of that post analysis a throwaway vote. Would you rather me ignore the conclusions I've come to?

You are correct, however, that the inverse is true for you. With so many players pushing your lynch that's a slight indication that you're not scum.

Well it is a throwaway vote in the sense that it was alone. I agree with your analysis of Wilgy though. I was just starting to just name people with few votes on them and then decided to look a bit closer. You town. He scum.

Mac tries to work up a DrWilgy counterwagon to his own -- or at least he provides the appearance that he's trying to do that (DrWilgy was never in real danger of being lynched on Day 6 -- he finished with only 1 vote on him).

Spoiler: show

Self pres voting wilgy

Hey look a dismissive reaction. He must be scum.

It was true about Mac. Shall we believe him at face value here?

Spoiler: show

Diiny

No Wilgy.

My favorite post in Mac's ISO if DrWilgy is mafia. Diiny was the odds-on counterwagon, and Mac "pushed" for Doc instead. This just looks completely bogus to me. Mac knew all along that Doc wasn't getting lynched, and with that in mind he had no reason to give a shit who got lynched in his place unless one of the following two things is true:

1. Diiny is mafia and Mac wanted to protect him.

2. DrWilgy is mafia and Mac wanted to create distance from him, maintaining the stance he'd espoused for much of the game.

I have my doubts about #1. If Mac wanted to specifically protect Diiny in this scenario, then he probably could have picked a more viable counterwagon to press than DrWilgy (it had no traction at all aside from RadicalFuzz). Moreover, we can project this move long-term in the event that it succeeds: we would suppose that Diiny is mafia and Doc is town: Mac successfully generates the Doc counterwagon to save himself at the cost of a townie -- and then everyone is even more suspicious of him than before. He gets lynched promptly, and that post right there is left sitting there waiting for everyone to pitchfork Diiny right after him. It's not just WIFOM, it's stupid.

#2 seems much more reasonable. DrWilgy wasn't getting lynched no matter how hard Mac pretended to push it. He had one supporter in this cause (Fuzz) while the Diiny and Mac wagons were all moving north of the 5-vote plateau. This reads to me like another attempt by Mac to play WIFOM, but it's more transparent than most of his other WIFOM. He wants Diiny to look bad here, but I think it's Doc that looks bad.

This is another potentially contentious point. I want to hear your thoughts everyone. Please don't leave me hanging.

TheFloyd73

Spoiler: show

Browsing over posts right now, I have a bit to do after I complete my second job today.

Mafia to do list:

• In-depth analysis of devin the omniscient
• In-depth analysis of Mac
• Bullzeye post review
• Elo post review
• Espers post review

If I missed anything or somebody has some questions please let me know.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!


I just lost my shit. I actually screamed when I read this.

Someone cool me down! Im seeing red!!

*fans Wilgy* Does anyone else need my services?

OT banter action.

Black Rock

Nothing.

~~~

Conclusion:



Break out the tinfoil, I think we have a new big time suspect! Some of this demands I reach deeper into the realm of theory than I normally do, but at this point it's clear someone has played well enough to demand that kind of investigation anyway. I think this looks bad.

Please give me your feedback everyone.

So... I appreciate that you are at least trying to look at both sides of the coin, but it seems that you are discrediting other possibilities. Let's look at mafia general play here, they already had a failed kill at the point of Mac's lynch. Mac being the most vocal of mafia, it wouldn't surprise me if he was leading the team at that point. In the Fuzz mafia spew, you had stated that it'd be really sloppy for a teammate to interact with one another in a fashion between them, even though evidence of sloppiness was already present. You managed to discredit that sloppiness and you placed Fuzz in an area of not being a teammate with Mac. In Mac's interactions with me, would it be stretching to assume that he was attempting to fling shit everywhere? Mac flinging shit everywhere seemed to be the norm for him (I mean, he did say in his interrogation that mind fucking civvies was his favorite personal mafia trait). It can be seen again in the interactions between Mac and Fuzz, Mac changing his mind on Fuzz, he's throwing shit. Do we clear Fuzz, because Mac did? or do we think this implicates him?

In regards to your theory on the Equus incident reference, I have a problem with point #1 that you believe.

If Mac really wanted to claim credibility for connecting the two, wouldn't he pursue it more? Isn't the point of bussing, to make it believable? If I am Mac's teamate, and he wanted to take credit for the reference, wouldn't it be in his best interest to pursue those similarities? The other thing to keep in mind, is that a baddie can't soft clear anyone by going too hard on them. Had Mac hard pursued the similarities between the Equus incident and my charts, what would you think about them? would you think there was more or less credibility to them? From an outside perspective, I think it would've put me in the green on his flip, so rather pursue something that may end up being dangerous later, Mac flung some shit and ran.

I'll continue tomorrow after work.. I got busy and it got late D: I plan on reviewing all of these pages and commenting on things regarding me in the order that I see them, regardless of what else comes to follow.

[Strawhenge]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

J, if straws role had nothing to do with it, why continue to discuss it w/ MM? Sorry for probably awful phone post

Strawhenge might or might not be relevant to my personal perspective, but he is not relevant to the cases I promoted against MM. I did reference that single Strawhenge post at the end of the SK case and players are welcome to view that in whatever light they may, but it really wasn't meant to be as significant as the content of the case itself.

The only reason I was plugging #legacyofstrawhenge was that Straw was so persistent about wanting MM dead and now I am finally engaging that possibility in a substantive manner. I'm being a goofball and shouting out to muh boi when his Biggest Enemy in the Thread might have become a top suspect for me.

If point 2 is correct, j, the weirdness between you n wilgy wouldn't have happened. (Eye emoticon )

I'll adjust my wording. Some things in this thread may or may not be ACEO-relevant, but I am never going to talk about it. The tight lips shall remain tight.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

3) You're a harsh bastard, aren't you. Why can't I grade your case?

I didn't say you can't, I asked why you did. It might make sense if it represented some attempt by you to get a grasp of my motivations and thus perhaps a better read on my alignment, but the progression of your behavior does not seem to support that notion.

Jay got a score of 37/130 on my. That's a 28.5%, or a D on a large curve.

But this is mafia where everything is made up and the points don't matter.

Does this mean something to you? You've asserted that my case was bad enough to warrant a poor grade and presented this arbitrary total to discredit it. This is the issue I'm having with you right now: everything you're doing seems to be aimed at building a pile of doubt over everything I say.

If a point I make warrants a "0/10" grade, then it should be a simple matter to destroy it and leave yourself looking better. Your responses do not achieve that. I'll why I feel that way shortly.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

EBWOP

I'll explain why I feel that way shortly.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Metalmarsh89's content about Bullzeye:

*NOTE* -- I have deliberately avoided thoroughly reviewed Rico's own work on this interaction before producing this.

Spoiler: show

Here's a view of Day 4's lynch with the two main players involved at the forefront.

Devin the Omniscient
9
bcornett24 (15), Sorsha (16), JaggedJimmyJay (22), Bullzeye (23), Black Rock (25), Ricochet (26), Golden (27), DrWilgy (31), Epignosis (33) 27%

Sorsha
10
Choutas (6), seaside (8), Devin the Omniscient (9), Strawhenge (11), motel room (17), Matt F (20), Elohcin (24), MacDougall (28), espers (29), Russtifinko (30) 30%

My question to any player pointing the Day 4 lynch out as a save: Why could it be a save?

Sorsha led the lynch 4-0, 6-2, and 10-7. It was tied at one point at 7-7, but at no point did Devin lead the lynch (unless someone had switched their vote from one to the other, which I have not looked into yet). If this was a save attempt, MacDougall, espers, and Russtinfinko look the worst for their votes.

Looking back Bullzeye is the only one who pointed out "save attempt". But he mentioned no names to be doing the saving.

Also, I do not forgive him for voting for me on Day 3.

MM brought this out in Night 4 after the Sorsha lynch. He was half-contesting the notion that Devin was saved by Sorsha voters and noted that Bullzeye was the only person to really be pushing that agenda. I've highlighted a portion here that I think promotes an illogical thought process. While we know now that Devin was not "saved", we didn't know that then and that means a townie must approach the scenario from that mindset of uncertainty. MM portrays that mindset here, but arrives at a distinct conclusion (against the notion of a save) via a line of thinking that doesn't make sense. He's acknowledged that the Sorhsa/Devin wagons were at one point tied 7-7 and still discards the notion of a save because "Devin never had the lead" -- this is erroneous to the point of being dubious. A tied tally between a townie and a potential mafioso is literally a perfect scenario for a save to be possible.

Why do I care? Because this line of thinking was his setup for throwing a little shade on Bullzeye. If a line of thinking appears so wrong that it's sincerity can be doubted, and it is applied to a soft criticism of a confirmed mafioso, then the potential for a team mate relationship is perfectly believable. Moreover, MM hardly followed up on this. The following post is essentially the extent of that effort:

I saw talk of the lynch being a savejob, so I asked players who thought this way to explain why it would be a save. Then after rereading the posts again, I realized that Bullzeye was the only player who called it a save.

0/10 points

You did not address the point. My concern is that your stated doubts about the "save" having been a "save" don't mesh with your own assessment of the lynch progression. The vote was at one point tied at 7-7, and from a town perspective where one of the two options might have been mafia then this would seem to be the quintessential "save" scenario -- regardless of what the looked like before 7-7. This seems self-evident to me. So I am brought to wonder whether you put up this moderately large post to ask a question that truly made sense to you or because you wanted to make a post -- specifically one that produced mild shade against Bullzeye with very little follow-up.

0/10 points

Spoiler: show

I haven't gotten the chance to look at Devin. Is there any case or points you can point me to that would explain his 9 votes from Day 4?

The other part of the lynch being a possible "save" hinges on Devin being bad. I still have not read everything that has happened in this thread, and I don't know if I will, so some assistance would be welcome.

This was directed at Bullzeye, but any response from a Devin suspector is welcome.

He again names Bullzeye but it's barely accusatory and even invites the discussion to expand well beyond just Bullzeye.

It was directed at Bullzeye because he was the only player who declared that the Sorsha lynch was a civ. There is nothing wrong with opening up the discussion to other players.

0/10 points

You fail to recognize the point I am making. This was an analysis of your interactions with a confirmed mafioso, and that means there will be some conjecture about why you might have done some things. I'm suggesting you might have felt the need to identify Bullzeye as the focus of your post when it wasn't really necessary. Forced interactions can be viewed with suspicion. There is nothing inherently wrong with opening up discussion to other players, but when the potential exists that you're shading Bullzeye without actually attacking him in this progression then that move can be viewed as diversionary.

4/10 points

Spoiler: show

Are we going to ignore the simple possibility that the ???? kill could've been whoever Golden had seduced? It's not like we aren't 100% certain of what his role was.

If that's the case, does it tell us anything?

On Day 5 Bullzeye throws a pretty meaningless theory into the thread and MM asks a rather neutral question about it.

I agree that his theory was meaningless, which is why I responded with a question that was intended to point out it doesn't help us.

0/10 points

You're so defensive that you feel the need to crap on an observatory note. I was reviewing your interactions and logging what I found. This post was one of them.

-2/10 points

I'll address other things in another post.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Spoiler: show

Jay! what do you think of Devin's previous vote for espers and this point I raised?

How does Devin's later self-vote, after voting for Bullzeye for meta, sit with you?

I ask because you said you read Devin's reactions today as genuine, but you said that before these posts.

After I'd started to doubt the Devin lynch as a good option, MM dropped this question on me. I didn't really consider it a significant moment before, but it could be now. I'm not sure why the sincerity of Devin's vote is being checked against his "voting for Bullzeye for meta". I don't understand the logic being drawn here, and I don't understand why Bullzeye's name is present in this post.

I included Bullzeye's name because Devin and Bullzeye had a back-and-forth where Devin ended up voting Bullzeye, and then later self-voted. That's how things unfolded after you claimed to read Devin's intentions as pure.

2/10 points

You've answered the what but not the why. The latter is more important. You were anti-Devin at this point in the game, and you presented this interaction between he and Bullzeye and his self-vote to me to qualify my dissenting viewpoint. What significance did you think that interaction he had with Bullzeye had to reading his alignment?

~~~

I'm going to have to continue this later. Just got home from work and I am about to pass out. You can use that time to address the SK case anyway.

I'll cover a couple other things quickly and then go find the nearest bed.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

So... I appreciate that you are at least trying to look at both sides of the coin, but it seems that you are discrediting other possibilities. Let's look at mafia general play here, they already had a failed kill at the point of Mac's lynch. Mac being the most vocal of mafia, it wouldn't surprise me if he was leading the team at that point. In the Fuzz mafia spew, you had stated that it'd be really sloppy for a teammate to interact with one another in a fashion between them, even though evidence of sloppiness was already present.

I'm sorry Doc but I don't follow what you're saying here. What does the failed kill have to do with this discussion? What does Mac's potential leadership have to do with it? What was the already-present evidence of mafia sloppiness?

You managed to discredit that sloppiness and you placed Fuzz in an area of not being a teammate with Mac. In Mac's interactions with me, would it be stretching to assume that he was attempting to fling shit everywhere? Mac flinging shit everywhere seemed to be the norm for him (I mean, he did say in his interrogation that mind fucking civvies was his favorite personal mafia trait). It can be seen again in the interactions between Mac and Fuzz, Mac changing his mind on Fuzz, he's throwing shit. Do we clear Fuzz, because Mac did? or do we think this implicates him?

Sure, Mac likes to fling shit. He went into chaos mode and flung plenty of it. To this point, we've successfully read into some of it. When do you assert he flung shit specifically with regards to you? Just when he was critical of you? That doesn't inspire me. I'm not going to ask you to tell me what Mac was thinking or defend yourself in light of his contributions -- but they're still relevant to my read on you.

In regards to your theory on the Equus incident reference, I have a problem with point #1 that you believe.

If Mac really wanted to claim credibility for connecting the two, wouldn't he pursue it more? Isn't the point of bussing, to make it believable? If I am Mac's teamate, and he wanted to take credit for the reference, wouldn't it be in his best interest to pursue those similarities? The other thing to keep in mind, is that a baddie can't soft clear anyone by going too hard on them. Had Mac hard pursued the similarities between the Equus incident and my charts, what would you think about them? would you think there was more or less credibility to them? From an outside perspective, I think it would've put me in the green on his flip, so rather pursue something that may end up being dangerous later, Mac flung some shit and ran.

He did pursue them. He drew parallels between that incident and your own contributions and vaguely criticized you at various junctures of the game before [arguably] trying to get you lynched on Day 6. I don't quite understand the point you're trying to make here.

I'll continue tomorrow after work.. I got busy and it got late D: I plan on reviewing all of these pages and commenting on things regarding me in the order that I see them, regardless of what else comes to follow.

There might not be a tomorrow. I frankly don't even want to see you defend yourself all day anyway, I want to see some READS. I have no idea what you think of anyone in this tally aside from calling me the SK. You have to do better than that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I just want to talk about this because people are expressing a lot of doubt about the mafia-spew analysis strategy as a focus:

Again, since I'm trying to be brief, it's hard to address your case point by point. I'll start with: I buy that the scum spew analyses could lead to some useful stuff, but you haven't sold me that what other people say about a player is more valuable than what that player themselves says and does during the game. I'm honestly not sure you will be able to sell me on that, so we may just be at an impasse regarding it.

I don't think mafia spew is "more valuable" than other analytic methods. I don't think it's the only effective method. I don't think any method is the most valuable or the One True Method.

I think everything is contextual and circumstantial. Sometimes getting a conclusive read on a player is not an easy task. One analytic method (perhaps assessing a vote record) might yield uncertain results while another (perhaps two-way confirmed mafia interaction) yields something inspiring. Townies are tasked with doing whatever legwork necessary to arrive at the most conclusive read they can manage. For me in this game that has meant a ton of different things.

My Bullzeye read was primarily two-way. My current DrWilgy read is largely mafia spew. My motel room read is as much gut as interactive. My Ricochet read is trust-based. My MM read is more inspired by tone than others. Every read is different.

Russ, I'll continue to mull over the matter of motel room and what you've said. For now I have to get some sleep.

I'll be back with enough time to spare before the deadline to have a meaningful presence -- this is obviously an extremely important period in the game and I hope we're all up for it. It's been a long ride but keep your eyes on the prize. I have not voted yet and my decision has not been made at all.

[Ricochet]

How is it that, the more I sleep on a night, the more I'm tired during the next day? God.

I only have the evening today to play, so back later then. Thursday is Hateday.

[MacDougall]

Do you snore Rico. That is a symptom of sleep apnea. You get the worst apnea attacks during your last couple of hours of deep sleep. The longer you sleep the more oxygen deprived your body gets. Go get a sleep test done. Sleep apnea is fucked. I use cpap and it changed my life.

[DrWilgy]

So... I appreciate that you are at least trying to look at both sides of the coin, but it seems that you are discrediting other possibilities. Let's look at mafia general play here, they already had a failed kill at the point of Mac's lynch. Mac being the most vocal of mafia, it wouldn't surprise me if he was leading the team at that point. In the Fuzz mafia spew, you had stated that it'd be really sloppy for a teammate to interact with one another in a fashion between them, even though evidence of sloppiness was already present.

I'm sorry Doc but I don't follow what you're saying here. What does the failed kill have to do with this discussion? What does Mac's potential leadership have to do with it? What was the already-present evidence of mafia sloppiness?

You managed to discredit that sloppiness and you placed Fuzz in an area of not being a teammate with Mac. In Mac's interactions with me, would it be stretching to assume that he was attempting to fling shit everywhere? Mac flinging shit everywhere seemed to be the norm for him (I mean, he did say in his interrogation that mind fucking civvies was his favorite personal mafia trait). It can be seen again in the interactions between Mac and Fuzz, Mac changing his mind on Fuzz, he's throwing shit. Do we clear Fuzz, because Mac did? or do we think this implicates him?

Sure, Mac likes to fling shit. He went into chaos mode and flung plenty of it. To this point, we've successfully read into some of it. When do you assert he flung shit specifically with regards to you? Just when he was critical of you? That doesn't inspire me. I'm not going to ask you to tell me what Mac was thinking or defend yourself in light of his contributions -- but they're still relevant to my read on you.

In regards to your theory on the Equus incident reference, I have a problem with point #1 that you believe.

If Mac really wanted to claim credibility for connecting the two, wouldn't he pursue it more? Isn't the point of bussing, to make it believable? If I am Mac's teamate, and he wanted to take credit for the reference, wouldn't it be in his best interest to pursue those similarities? The other thing to keep in mind, is that a baddie can't soft clear anyone by going too hard on them. Had Mac hard pursued the similarities between the Equus incident and my charts, what would you think about them? would you think there was more or less credibility to them? From an outside perspective, I think it would've put me in the green on his flip, so rather pursue something that may end up being dangerous later, Mac flung some shit and ran.

He did pursue them. He drew parallels between that incident and your own contributions and vaguely criticized you at various junctures of the game before [arguably] trying to get you lynched on Day 6. I don't quite understand the point you're trying to make here.

I'll continue tomorrow after work.. I got busy and it got late D: I plan on reviewing all of these pages and commenting on things regarding me in the order that I see them, regardless of what else comes to follow.

There might not be a tomorrow. I frankly don't even want to see you defend yourself all day anyway, I want to see some READS. I have no idea what you think of anyone in this tally aside from calling me the SK. You have to do better than that.

So I lied, I checked front page on my phone :P In regards to the sloppiness (failed NK), it was reference to the Fuzz mafia spew, and an example of perspective. Equus, see it's the vague criticism that shows a lack of pursuit. The point is, getting into a baddies head and understanding the game from thier angle is hard... I can try my best to read things from a mafia spew, but using them as a source of information is difficult because we could read them backwards.

I will try to get some reads in before times up, I don't think you are SK anymore though. I may have missed it, but did Diiny explain why he voted me over Bullzeye? Also, how many baddies do we think are left? I think 1 remains.

[Diiny]

J: I wasn't taking about the #legacyofdave thing I was talking about the in depth discussions of specific roles you had with MM where you discussed that he could've been river iirc

Wilgy, why on earth are you off JJJ? Is your ONE read that wishy washy and weak that it can change for no real reason? You've consistently provided nothing to the thread but self defence. GTH on everyone right now pls

[DrWilgy]

Russ: Bad
MM: Bad

Everyone else is Good

Diiny, did you do the doo da? I had a thing about you, please explain.

[DrWilgy]

And in regards to JJJ, not being SK anymore, you'll just need to take my word for it.

[Diiny]

I answered he's, can't find Cuz on phone tho

[Diiny]

Didn't you have a large post dedicated to why we should lynch someone because we had to take their word for it?

[Diiny]

Edit of post before previous:

Answered it

[Ricochet]

Do you snore Rico. That is a symptom of sleep apnea. You get the worst apnea attacks during your last couple of hours of deep sleep. The longer you sleep the more oxygen deprived your body gets. Go get a sleep test done. Sleep apnea is fucked. I use cpap and it changed my life.

With very rare exceptions (being sick), I am not a snorer, nor have I been ever told by others that I'm ever snoring - except if they've been lying to me. I'm just highly irregular in my sleep patterns. When I have work in the morning, I (finally got to my senses, lol) to get some reasonable amount of sleep. Otherwise, I can loaf around and play mafia (just an example) until 5am. Which makes me wonder why sleeping the most amount creates the opposite desired effect.

[Marmot]

3) You're a harsh bastard, aren't you. Why can't I grade your case?

I didn't say you can't, I asked why you did. It might make sense if it represented some attempt by you to get a grasp of my motivations and thus perhaps a better read on my alignment, but the progression of your behavior does not seem to support that notion.

I am being defiant, you're right.

I've explained some of my behavior in the response to the Bullzeye-study. It was difficult to keep up with all of your content in the thread before. Now it's 10 times as bad because all of your posts are directed at me, and you keep hollering at me.

Now if you call the Bullzeye thing a case it's a weak case. My understanding was that it was a collection of interactions, independent of a specific alignment read. However, you looked at every post in the light of how it could view me as a Bullzeye teammate. So I graded each post on how far you had reached in some points.

I know my interactions with Bullzeye look bad. After the Day 5 lynch, I developed a civvie read on him based on his attitude. Then I got lazy, and never got around to changing it. I did look at the Epignosis case when he posted it. I felt that with the exception of the MacDougall interaction, the looks were weak, so I passed on it.

Jay got a score of 37/130 on my. That's a 28.5%, or a D on a large curve.

But this is mafia where everything is made up and the points don't matter.

Does this mean something to you? You've asserted that my case was bad enough to warrant a poor grade and presented this arbitrary total to discredit it. This is the issue I'm having with you right now: everything you're doing seems to be aimed at building a pile of doubt over everything I say.

If a point I make warrants a "0/10" grade, then it should be a simple matter to destroy it and leave yourself looking better. Your responses do not achieve that. I'll why I feel that way shortly.

The total is not arbitrary. I added up all of the points you scored. I gave you a 0/10 when you misinterpreted my intentions with my posts.

[Marmot]

Considering Metalmarsh89 as a Psycho Killer candidate:

Spoiler: show

Not surprised with any of that.

Two SK kills, no nightkill?

You heard me.

You don't say.

MM pokes in on a SK-relevant conversation without saying anything.

I thought Epignosis was the PSK at the time.

Spoiler: show

No MM, I wasn't lynched, not sure what you're getting at?

Again, it could be a coincidence that he made that poster about me, but I truly believe he was a part of the challenge, and IF he was a part of the challenge, then he definitely won because the other challenger DID NOT win.

Cue to the SK getting two NK's and bada boom...

How do we know the "other" challenger did not win? How do we know some other player (from the Syndicate) did not perform their job better, and is the SK?

Contests Matt's Mac-as-SK theory by asking a question implying it could be someone else (without actually naming anyone who might have "performed their job better").

If you're suggesting that I could have been the other challenger and won, check out my Day 4 posts (presumably when the contest happened). I won't win any contests with those.

And reading Matt's original post here, he implied that he was the Syndicate challenger and lost. Then again, I'm from RYM, so that doesn't say anything. Still, I have not been involved in any contests.

Spoiler: show

No MM, I wasn't lynched, not sure what you're getting at?

Again, it could be a coincidence that he made that poster about me, but I truly believe he was a part of the challenge, and IF he was a part of the challenge, then he definitely won because the other challenger DID NOT win.

Cue to the SK getting two NK's and bada boom...

How do we know the "other" challenger did not win? How do we know some other player (from the Syndicate) did not perform their job better, and is the SK?

I'm not completely sure, I just have a really good feeling that the other challenger didn't win.

Yeah, not sure, but let's lynch Mac and see if I'm wrong.

I'm not opposed to that.

Matt states some uncertainties about his Mac-as-SK read but still pushes his lynch "to see if he's wrong". MM suggests he is "not opposed" despite his prior contesting of the theory.

This statement was in response to lynching MacDougall. I was not opposed to doing that.

Spoiler: show

Haven't put much thought into who the SK is tbh but if we have everyone on board tracking the SK this could be fun. You could trust almost all the scum hunting done since the Mafia won't actually need to bullshit about who they think is the SK! Can trust almost everything at face value.

Day 5 - Hunt for Psycho Killer.

Let's look at some ISO's and start with people who have mentioned the psycho killer role. Rogue's love talking about their role.

From there we can look at interractions with the people SK has killed.

That's a pretty mighty generalization. But still, good plan. I'll go ahead and add you to the top of the "talked about Psycho Kiler" list.

MM is incredulous about Mac's stated strategy for hunting the SK but still calls it a "good plan". As basic as it might seem -- "rogues love to talk about their role" really is a proven thing in my experience. For some reason many self-aligned players just can't resist the need to involve their own role in discussion even when it doesn't need to be there. I've seen it multiple times. Mac may have been mafia, but I think he was being serious here.

That comment was tongue-in-cheek, in that I was calling out MacDougall for doing the thing he suspected other players of doing. He wanted to look for players who were talking about the PSK, and I pointed out that he was one of the primary players doing that.

Spoiler: show

The Day is 5 the time is 10:26 EST
Attempt 1: I tried to leave the house to be bitten by a rattlesnake I know the the snake will know I deserve to die. The front door is locked and the parents won't let me out so I went to my room built a rope using my boy scout skills out of my bed sheets and grappled out the window, down the wall in an attempt to find a rattlesnake. I've safely gotten out the window without falling to my death or my "rope" breaking looks like Boy scouts did teach me something and will begin my search for a rattlesnake in the concrete jungle of Philadelphia after this post. Hopefully it will realize I deserve to die then using it's magic snake powers like in Jungle Book convince y'all to vote for me.

What the hell are these posts? You were already punished to desire death. I'm not seeing any second challenger in the roles. Unless the power absorber really exists. It can't be the Mafia, because Sorsha was lynched.

I deserve to die for not explaining why I wrote such things, I guess you're just going to have to guess though.

I find the argument for Epi being the SK to have some good points, after considering the Mac Sk theory I'm not as confident in it.

Choutus why am I red on your list?

I'm leaning to an Epi vote today especially with the FZ killing it isn't looking good for him. I will need to look over Devin again I know he was second place yesterday and had been gaining attention for awhile.

Oh?

I would imagine one person here knows for certain that I am not the Psycho Killer.

That's a loaded comment Epignosis.

I think this post might have temporarily sent Epi into hunting MM as a SK candidate, and it's one that makes me suspicious too. Epi made a frank statement with pretty obvious implications, and MM felt the need to butt in and say this. I don't understand what interest MM would have in making this post unless he felt personally affected by Epi's comment. I asked him what this post was about at the time and he responded as follows:

Again, it was from the previous post that I suspected Epignosis as the PSK. I made this post because of what I thought that he was.

Spoiler: show

That's a loaded comment Epignosis.

What do you mean?

- Epignosis could be bluffing.
- If he is not, he could be implying that the real Psycho Killer knows who he/she are, and that Epignosis is not he/she.
- He could also be implying that another player knows what Epignosis's role is for whatever reason, and thus cannot be Psycho Killer.
- He could just be saying that he knows he is not Psycho Killer in a roundabout way.

Some of these ideas take the discussion to areas that are OB. Epignosis dropped a lot of implications with a single statement.

Here's another theory I would like to introduce. Epignosis loves revenge. He will exact revenge for not only himself, but for teammates as well, and I have been a victim of this. Now, in Recruitment Mafia, Golden "got Epignosis nightkilled by mafia" very early in that game. As an act of vengeance, Epignosis would return the favor and nightkill Golden.

MM expanded on his post by stating the obvious in four separate bullets. He called Epi's claim "loaded" which is mildly accusatory, but the reasons given to describe it as "loaded" can be applied to nearly any role-relevant post in any game ever. MM's response to Epi smelled to me like someone dipping his toes into waters that he didn't need to be exploring and now the smell has become more potent with time and evidence. I think it might be self-revealing.

You asked for the reasons, and I gave you the reasons. I didn't say it at the time, but I thought Epignosis was the PSK, and at times, I was poking him to see how he responded.

I don't understand your accusation. I was correct in calling it a loaded statement. Even if it can be applied to other similar comments, this is more crucial since we're talking about a Psyhco Serial Killer, so I think you're undervaluing the importance of that.

Orange: MM introduces a theory to associate Epignosis with the SK role -- suggests it was an "act of vengeance" against Golden to kill him based on what happened (or rather did not happen) in Recruitment IV. This seems like a dubious premise to me: that Epi would favor an emotional kill choice over a strategic kill choice. He strikes me as the opposite sort. Anyone else is welcome to contest that.

The main reason I suggested this theory is that in a game several months ago, Epignosis was a baddie, and Black Rock was his partner. In a couple games previous to that, I was mafia, and had twice killed Black Rock on Night 1. Epignosis asked her who she wanted to nightkill, she listed my name for that reason, and Epignosis went through with it.

This theory is kinda moot though, because the Recruitment thing turned out to be incorrect assumption on my part.

Spoiler: show

And since I brought it up earlier:

To anyone here who has hosted me, do I miss PMs?

No. I think Jay would have a low-posting game before you would miss a PM or lynch-vote.

Linki: Mac, Epignosis would still send a PM in saying he wouldn't kill if he is the PSK.

MM contests Mac's most absurd Epi-as-SK assertion with a point that would actually seem to support it. Sending in a declined attempt is logistically the same thing as missing the attempt. Illogical application of SK hunting/defending.

I wasn't contesting his theory though. I was just being pedantic about it. My point was that if you have a night action, and you choose not to use it, you would have to send a PM to the host saying such if you don't want your participation score to potentially get dinged. So I was saying that sending in a Pass is different than missing a PM.

And no, that is not illogical application of such a role. Imagine you can nightkill every night, but choose to skip Night 2, 4, and 6. The civilians would be lulled into a false sense of security, and BAM, you kill someone Night 8. You do sacrifice some nightkills in the process, but depending on how things are progressing, this can insight panic in the thread. I guess you could call it a high-risk, high-reward strategy.

But I still had another theory at the time about the PSK, which I thought was applicable. That theory has been proven incorrect though.

Spoiler: show

I like my theory about the PSK better.

Maybe he has the option to nightkill twice in one night but must forgo a nightkill the following night.

Important moment in which MM promotes a theory about the SK's lack of kill attempt on Night 5 alternative to Epi's theory about who did not post. He has since reverted to Epi's theory, which would seemingly exonerate MM.

Yes, my theory was that the PSK could nightkill twice on one night, and forfeit his following nightkill clearly that was incorrect.

I have a new theory now that the PSK can nightkill twice on one night if he wants to, but the odds of his targets dying is reduced to 50%. On nights when the PsychoKiller nightkills twice, he is 4 for 6. On nights he nightkills one player, he is 3 for 4, the one unsuccessful attempt coming on Night 7 against the same player that mafia targeted.

Spoiler: show

Oh really?

No. I think MacDougall is a co-conspirator with Long Con. I don't think serial killers can be caught in the first half of a game outside of luck, so I don't bother hunting them until Mafia are eliminated.

Are you sure you're not the PSK?

Epi started pursuing MM as a SK propsect on Day 6 and one of MM's responses was this. He only complained about Epi's point of focus, not his actual read, and then OMGUSed. Weak.

Again, I thought Epignosis was the PSK. This was not a sudden OMGUS, even if it looked like one. Also, like the case with Strawhenge, I can't address a read that doesn't have anything to back it up. Considering this whole interaction with Epignosis Jay, I think it's mighty inconsistent of you to bring up just a single point from that whole discussion, misrepresent my responses, and call it weak. My responses to Epignosis were spot-on, and Epignosis later retreated and acknowledged this. You also failed to address that Epignosis absolved his read of me being the PSK after the interaction for various reasons.

I looked at the point of focus, because I felt the Epignosis was trying to frame me for the role that he was. Epignosis clearly did not think I was mafia, and later backed off of the PSK read (as you may notice).

Epignosis's targeting of me was inconsistent with his strategy and his intelligence, as I continually pointed out. He knew this, and as we know now, his attempts were to see how other players responded to it.

Spoiler: show

@ mo-ro: The more I look at his voting patterns, and the more I think about classic SK behaviors, I'm thinking Psycho Killer. But there's no way to be sure. I'm just more sure that he's anti-town.

I just find it amazing that you came upon this realization at the exact same time that Epignosis did. The same explanation. The same conclusion. The same thought process.

I don't find your suspicion sincere at all.

And, @ Epignosis. Let me ask you again. I had the chance to lynch JaggedJimmyJay on Day 7, but I moved my vote to seaside instead. If I am the PSK, does this seem like a logical move to you?

Strawhenge (Psycho Killer victim) was getting into the heat of his anti-MM crusade here and MM discredited his entire attack merely because it came at the same time as Epignosis's (Psycho Killer victim) attack.

Strawhenge mimicked Epignosis's case (which Epignosis later reversed). How is this behavior from Strawhenge a good look to you?

Then he asked a ridiculous question to Epi to promote himself as a non-SK candidate. The simple answer is: yes, MM, it seems perfectly logical for you to help lynch seaside on Day 7 and leave me as the odds-on favorite to be lynched right after him. Two for the price of one. I was able to regain my footing, but you didn't know that then.

This question is not ridiculous JaggedJimmyJay. Epignosis made the exact same response later on to being accused of being PSK (to which no beef was attributed). Anyway, you are the most vocal and active participant in this game, and you were on the chopping block on Day 7. I was the first one to move my vote from you to seaside after Epignosis did. The fact that I moved my vote, and the timing of my vote, should be a good look for me, but you're calling it ridiculous.

No, you weren't the odds-on favorite to get lynched next. Even if you put hindsight aside.

This is the point in the game where I think the MM-as-SK case starts to become truly compelling.

Spoiler: show

Here is our conversation from when you first explained why you thought I am the PSK.

You start out with an explanation of why I am the PSK. I explain to you that your actions are not in the greatest civilian interest. I also believe that you know this already. After this statement I make to you, your response continue to get shorter and shorter to the questions I ask, noticably after the point where I suggest that you are the serial killer and why you are. You think I'm the PSK, don't you? You want me to be lynched for it don't you? Why would you not explain why "my action makes sense for a serial killer" when I ask?

Anyways, as I've stated before, it is in the civilian interest to lynch mafia today to skip the night phase. Mafia will get the chance to kill tonight because of the failed kill last night (unless I misunderstand Life during Wartime). I believe you know this, and you are trying to get me lynched today because of this. You have offered no argument that I am mafia to this point, so you don't believe I am mafia. This move only makes sense to me from a PSK Epignosis, and that is what I believe you are.

Here's MM's fullest rebuttal/OMGUS to Epi in the SK debate they were having. He gripes about Epi's responses getting "shorter and shorter" (this is Epi we're talking about here) and lacking in extensive explanation (this is Epi we're talking about here). Nothing in this post is inspiring or even sensible.

How is this not sensible? Not only did his responses get shorter and shorter, but they were getting less-enthusiastic, and he was backpedaling. Again, Epignosis pointed out that it was a gambit later, so his sincerity is doubtful.

I realize that Epignosis has been NK'd by the PSK so he cannot be that role now, but I was pretty certain that he was at the time, and even before then. I've already pointed out above some of the previous instances of me suspecting Epignosis, even if I didn't pursue it until he made a move.

MM again insists that his move from a JJJ vote to a seaside vote on Day was not SK-compatible (absolutely false) and then pushes the agenda that a lynch of a mafia player is the higher priority because of the potential to skip a night phase. That is itself a fair perspective, but look at where he develops from that: "Epi is trying to get me lynched without calling me a mafia read. This means he's the SK."

I disagree about the Jay--->seaside vote, but I already explained this.

What?

Why doesn't this make sense for a mafia Epi who is just trying to generate a mislynch? Why doesn't it make sense for a town Epi who believes the SK is the eminent threat of the day and is trying to get his top SK read lynched? How can we make the immediate jump to "Epi is the SK" from this? The thought process makes no sense to me, and it just reads as total OMGUS.

I saw plenty of reason to exonerate Epignosis as mafia. Also, I know I'm not the PSK, so my actions were made with that in mind. Again, my suspicion of Epignosis came as early as Night 4. This was not an immediate jump to Epignosis being the PSK.

It is important to state that later Epi clarified his move against MM as a SK candidate was a gambit to expose people who'd latch on. That revelatory post follows:

Spoiler: show

So what I have learned by coming out of the blue and calling MM the Psycho Killer is that two people were eager to jump on that and lynch him for no stated reason:

Metalmarsh89
3
Epignosis (4), Strawhenge (6), TheFloyd73 (8)
17%

Regardless of whether MM is PK (and I don't really think he is, for a reason obvious to me), it's clear that Mammaries Can't Wait is still alive (it is October and I was wearing a pink shirt today, after all), and lynching Mafia should be top priority, which would deprive PK of his deadmaking services yet again.

Given that Long Con tried to pull this very thing Day 2 (or, rather, what looks like this very thing), I figure no one would expect me to do it. So I did.

Plus football got boring as hell last night.

The highighted portion reveals that Epi didn't think MM is the SK for a "reason obvious to him". He's likely referring to the Night 5 scenario in which there was no kill attempt and MM had numerous posts -- implying he didn't miss a PM. I think there's good reason to believe Epi's ploy was correctly placed, even if by accident, and I frankly think MM handled it poorly. If one has absolute trust in the Night 5 theory Epi proposed then there you go, but that's a dangerous proposition -- particularly when MM himself proposed an alternative.

Actually, Epignosis' theory is very probable, as I believe anyone can admit. I was latching on to my theory because I proposed it.

Spoiler: show

Epignosis proposed that we should search for the PSK today.

I disagree. I think we should put drop the anchor on this mafia team if we can.

Day 9 priorities are still mafia-centric emerging from the Floyd lynch.

3 dead mafia in 3 days. I felt like that was the best time to get after it, even if I failed in that department.

Spoiler: show

Because I am wary of him after the potential "slip". I don't think it was a slip, but I won't and can't ignore it.

Linki: Epignosis is still my #1 PSK suspish.

Still suspects Epi heavily as the SK even in light of Epi revealing his ruse.

Epignosis did a similar thing Long Con did on Day 1 and even admitted it. I think that was deserving of suspicion.

Spoiler: show

You can't "dismiss" him as civilian?

If you're town that's valuable information.
If you're scum you already knew that.
If you're SK his allegiance is mostly irrelevant to you.

Your statement sounds like it originates from the third viewpoint.

Again, you missed the point of my post, and even every piece of my post. Before I said we can't dismiss him as civilian, I acknowledged that it was a favorable look for him. Meta is (typically) important for reading a player, but it should not be the soul method for reading a player.

That's now twice you've misinterpreted my posts.

Fuzz associated MM with the SK role on Day 10 and MM responded with accusations of misinterpretation. I do think the point he made about Choutas looked fake though (that Choutas's self-meta was a good look but couldn't exonerate him).

Spoiler: show

I don't really understand why my vote would look SKish. I can understand it coming from a mafia perspective, but an SK doesn't give a damn who gets killed/lynched as long as it ain't him. If anything, at this point in the game, the SK will probably want to lynch mafia, and be more apt to behave like a civilian.

MM again pushes a perspective that is nonsense. A SK still has plenty of reasons to care who is lynched and to employ strategic votes.

The way I explained sure looks that way. But still, I believe that move does not make sense for someone who is trying to keep under the radar. The vote makes sense from a civilian or mafia perspective, but not a PSK perspective.

Spoiler: show

Bullzeye being mafia is not supported by Epignosis's theory, for what it's worth

Of the living players implicated by that theory, who do you lean toward?

Jay, same question to you.

Same to everyone else.

If Epignosis's theory is correct that the PSK missed the Night 5 kill because of inactivity, which player do you think is most likely to be the PSK based on players who did not post that night.

The candidates are bcornett (NK'd by mafia last night), Diiny, DrWilgy, and motel room.

MM now pushes Epi's theory of Night 5 non-posters as SK candidates. He seems to have discarded his own proposed alternative theory and is pursuing the one that doesn't feature him as a suspect.

As I've said, my own theory has proven false, so why would I continue to stick by it? What do you think about that theory?

Spoiler: show

-- calls Bullzeye unlikely mafia, based on Epignosis's theory [wasn't that about the SK, though?!]

Yeah, that was in reference to the SK theory.

Okay, so...? What do you conclude given this correction?

That Bullzeye is unlikely the PSK, as has been proven.

Spoiler: show

Very good chance Marsh is bad. Will expand later. #legacyofstrawhenge

I look forward to your expansions.

Meantime, why did you make this post immediately after the new day started?

I dropped in early on Day 12 with a strongly-worded anti-MM statement. What was his primary concern?

When I posted it.

Your timing is suspicious. If you are a civilian, and you fear that you might be nightkilled (maybe you didn't for some other reasons, but I'll not go there), why would you wait until just after the day starts and say "Hey, this guy is probably the PSK!"

Your timing looks reactionary to the results of the previous night, and that is why I find it suspicious.

~~~

Conclusion:

MM has made a concerted effort in this game to discuss the SK a lot more often than most players tend to, and in so doing he has maneuvered his suspicions in convenient manners while offering nonsense defenses for himself. If the SK really didn't send a PM on Night 5 then fine, but that theory doesn't have to define the entire nature of the SK hunt. That's a big pill to swallow frankly. I think there are plenty of reasons to associate MM with the SK role.

Let's return to #legacyofstrawhenge2015.

He's either Life During Wartime or Psycho Killer. Vote him immediately.

This came in Straw's first post after the simultaneous failed night kills of Night 7 on the same target.

Strawhenge is wrong, for what it's worth.

[Diiny]

Interesting to see you scrap the grading system after getting told off for it by J, I'm probably more interested in that than I am the actual use of a grading system itself.

[Diiny]

Were you scoring how J made you out to look vs how you think you objectively look in the thread with that grading system MM?

[Diiny]

Wilgy, did you ever explain why you voted bully despite J being the scummiest of your reads?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Diiny, what are your perspectives of the way MM has responded to an anvil being dropped on his face, and DrWilgy's more substantive return to the thread?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

J: I wasn't taking about the #legacyofdave thing I was talking about the in depth discussions of specific roles you had with MM where you discussed that he could've been river iirc

Straw's potential roles have some relevance to my own read on MM, but they don't pertain to the cases I built. I am not asking anyone to believe in Strawhenge's vendetta, that's why I put content of my own in the thread to support my suspicion.

[Diiny]

I don't think Dr. Wilgy's return to the thread is substantive in the slightest. Why do you?

Is the metaphorical anvil an anvil because of its scumhunting, implicative weight or because of its sheer volume?

I can understand a town MM's frustration; whilst I have nothing against it and consider it a core part of mafia, I do believe what you call playing mafia and what he calls emotional manipulation have a bit of a crossover. I don't really feel like I can comment on the weird role/ceo/strawhenge stuff because I really don't know what the fuck is going on there. With his more general case, though, there's only so many times a player can so 'I know it looks bad' before I start getting reaaal nervous.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

So I lied, I checked front page on my phone :P In regards to the sloppiness (failed NK), it was reference to the Fuzz mafia spew, and an example of perspective. Equus, see it's the vague criticism that shows a lack of pursuit.

I don't think a failed night kill evidences sloppiness by the mafia team. I think it evidences bad luck for them. That's a very different thing from publicly sloppy behavior in the game thread. It is possible that Fuzz could have been mafia too and I maintained him as a suspect of some kind pretty consistently since Floyd died -- but Fuzz is gone now and the mafia team is not eliminated so I don't think that matters very much right now.

Regarding "vague criticism that shows a lack of pursuit" -- that is kind of a hallmark of mafia team mate interaction. Mac hard-bussed Long Con but didn't treat his other confirmed team mates that way. He was vaguely critical of Bullzeye without ever really trying to get him lynched. He didn't interact much with Floyd period. He was defensive of Black Rock.

The point is, getting into a baddies head and understanding the game from thier angle is hard... I can try my best to read things from a mafia spew, but using them as a source of information is difficult because we could read them backwards.

Sure it's hard, but we have to try. Mafia members know more about the game than anyone else, and it's very common for them to reveal what they know unwittingly. We have the opportunity to try to pick up on some of that knowledge by examining their contributions and I've made my best effort to do that. You're right that we can interpret them incorrectly (as I did with the Long Con/Mac interactions), but that doesn't mean interpretations should be inherently doubted. I actually think Mac's treatment of you in this game has been pretty similar to his treatment of Bullzeye -- flinging poop from a safe distance and claiming harsh stances against you without actually pursuing your lynch in a serious way.

[Diiny]

Russ: Bad
MM: Bad

Elaborate on Russ and MM pls

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't think Dr. Wilgy's return to the thread is substantive in the slightest. Why do you?

When I say "substantive" in this context I only mean "more words".

Is the metaphorical anvil an anvil because of its scumhunting, implicative weight or because of its sheer volume?

All.

I can understand a town MM's frustration; whilst I have nothing against it and consider it a core part of mafia, I do believe what you call playing mafia and what he calls emotional manipulation have a bit of a crossover. I don't really feel like I can comment on the weird role/ceo/strawhenge stuff because I really don't know what the fuck is going on there. With his more general case, though, there's only so many times a player can so 'I know it looks bad' before I start getting reaaal nervous.

The highlighted portion might be accurate. When I get into hateraging scumhunter mode my intensity is probably over the threshold. How earnest do you feel he has been in his responses to me? Frustration can be representative of the mindset of any alignment in my opinion. My gut tells me his defiance has been too much about telling me off and not enough about conveying his mindset. I value independent perspectives though because I am entrenched in that argument and that creates biases.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Marsh, if the SK fits into Epi's theory who would you favor among the current options?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Diiny, you asked Doc for GTHs on everyone and I'd like to ask for the same from you. Include the SK.

[Ricochet]

Hi hi hi hi hi

Marsh, are you a girl?

I'mma read back through toDay's posts, but overall, dragging myself through the end of Hateday and through this EoD will be pretty much the same.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Hi hi hi hi hi

Marsh, are you a girl?

I'mma read back through toDay's posts, but overall, dragging myself through the end of Hateday and through this EoD will be pretty much the same.

Don't make me pep talk you again, if you start slacking it's going to make me tinfoil.

[Marmot]

Were you scoring how J made you out to look vs how you think you objectively look in the thread with that grading system MM?

Yes. I graded it because Jay brought every single interaction with Bullzeye to the table, and explained them all as indicative as me being mafia. I'm not Bullzeye's teammate, my interactions with MacDougall speak the opposite, and I believe he pushed some points beyond reason.

I didn't grade the SK case, no. Jay didn't like it, and it was a little silly of me.

I don't like that Jay offered me as the only lynch option today. I know this is hypocritical, because I haven't offered anyone, but I'm in a quandary because my top suspect was killed off and I'm defending from a thousand missiles.

My vote will likely go to Wilgy because I know I don' want to be lynched. I'm aslo on the road so won't be around much.

Linki: I would go Diiny. Motel room next. But i cant remember much more to them other than their not posting Night 5 atm.