[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

[Ricochet]

I thought the 8-bit version of TMbtP I used for Wilgy's death was fun.

Indeed! I enjoyed it so much I started working on this:

and have been trying to get it adjusted to the beat of the song.

Wilgyson, help me host a NES mafia in which you create animated versions of the players.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I feel the need to say something: Diiny, if you're the SK (or whoever is), I didn't really mean this:

I'd rather kill a mafia because the serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself. If we can't count on him to try to maintain numbers balance then we have to pursue it ourselves.

Killing either one is a win though if my math is right.

I was just trying to draw the SK out by talking mad shit on their play and seeing if anyone would respond in an interesting way. The only person who responded at all was Diiny.

[DrWilgy]

I thought the 8-bit version of TMbtP I used for Wilgy's death was fun.

Indeed! I enjoyed it so much I started working on this:

and have been trying to get it adjusted to the beat of the song.

Wilgyson, help me host a NES mafia in which you create animated versions of the players.

Working on adding a marmott and Fuzz to this actually... those are the only players who I know what they look like. Gladly though! 8 bit death animations sound fun!

[Ricochet]

Before I start posting these, I want to make it clear I can make no promises to compile these all the way through - on one hand, Diiny has 11 pages as of right now, the kind of number MacBaddie had on his lynch D6 and JJJ had on Dusk 0; on the other hand, tomorrow I have to study, do some homework and go to a concert, mainly to meet afterwards with some of the musicians and discuss business (although the event itself is promising on its own: a screening of Nosferatu with a new contemporary music score, player live, to accompany it), so my time will be limited and far from satisfactory to complete this endeavor.

Diiny on Day 1

Day 1

• -- comments on JJJ's strategy to test people's reaction to him saying he'd be minimal poster, intends to keep an eye on Zebra's activity, despite being satisfied with his reaction to said testing
  -- criticises b24's weak start to the game (by making an RVS and not interacting enough)
  -- pinged by Sorsha
  -- heavily pinged by Roxy's random vote and banter, finds it faux-play and "trying to look involved, but doing so in the least accountable way"; keeps pressuring Roxy to explain her intentions
  -- defensive reply to Llama calling him Detective Aggressive Scumhunt von Threadleader (referencing that he's done it as town on plenty occasions, even at the risk of mislynch)
  -- calls his D1 MO "going hard, flinging shit", putting pressure on a player and on those reacting besides on the issues
  -- defends against FZ. feeling that he started voicing opinions at her signal
  -- in reply to JJJ, comments on his Scumhunt von Threadleader tactic not requiring him to go over-aggressive; questions JJJ pursuing this line of questioning
  -- spends more time on questioning Roxy and the people reacting to the issue (such as bea)
  -- questions LC on more suspects than his jump on bea
  -- defensive against sig picking up the ideas that Diiny might be very (or too) aggressive
  -- plans to check B24's meta
  -- in reply to Mac accussing him of not responding to accusations, comments that he's focusing on who to vote for, believes that people intending to vote him will do so, regardless of his rebuttals
  -- pinged by sig demanding players who question to follow that up with reasons, too
  -- questions Wilgy's reason for voting BWT, based on the playstyle claim alone (finds it himself to raise a flag, but not enough to make him vote)
  -- votes BWT in self-defense, at the end of activity

Mafia interpretation - Not much to go with, except a moment of either inspired (if non-Mafia) or planned (if Mafia) questioning of LC's methods. Slightly more important is that fend off of Mac telling him to respond to accusations and him saying he'd rather do his thing. It's tinfoilable (but to be fair, probably not more than that) that, on a day when LC was up to shenanigans and Mac created a bit of distance on that, whilst the other baddies snoozed or were inactive, a baddie Diiny would want to look like he's focusing on his completely separate MO.

SK interpretation - A day of rather intense opinionating, finger waving at people failing at different standards (either lurking, or bantering, or something else) and engaging on all levels, with multiple references to this being the natural gameplay he endorses and which describes him (including referencing meta). As much as I never like to credit llama's line of inquiry being any good, it's quite ironic that he may have nailed what Diiny was doing - which is scumhunt-threadleading. Diiny's defenses to several players on the issue of his gameplay gives me mixed signals. The SK version of those signals would be that he intended to start D1 very engaged and seemingly hunt focused, but then got a bit nervous at players questioning this exact thing; he was a wagon possibility up to a point, so his defensiveness could be in reaction to his MO potentially backfiring.

I need to check how active Diiny stayed after D1 - my impression is that he dropped significantly, but, again, I should also check this factually. Anyway, D1 was intense and something Diiny, in principle, can claim it shows him doing serious town moves (hunting, questioning, testing, baiting, not taking any crap or shenanigans from others etc.)

His self-def on BWT checks out, statistically, although he had otherwise nothing on voting the man. It also makes him look fishy for appearing to ahve dropped all the suspicions that he ever had (b24 for lurking, Roxy for rogue gameplay, LC for casemaking, sig for sounding pushy in demands) - none of these were ever transported into an EoD wrap-up style. Again, it looks like intense work meant to cash in a town check.

[Ricochet]

Oh wait, concluded my scan too early and missed this post, in which he justifies his BWT vote a bit more, and comments on the others he suspected (Roxy, b24).

So consider my last paragraph redacted.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

When I do these I am going to focus on what the victims said and not the living players based on the premise that people don't tend to telegraph their kill choices.

Night 1 victim: HamburgerBoy and Diiny

Burger talked quite a lot about Diiny. He made 30 posts while he was alive, and in those posts there are 31 search results for "Diiny" I'm going to follow the bulleted format instead of referencing all the quotes.

- First real contribution is to talk about the Day 1 feud between Diiny and Roxy -- says she looks town to him and reads Diiny neutral.
- Burger questions Diiny on his approach to questioning Roxy since he can't have any knowledge of her meta entering the game.
- Semi-early on Day 1 when sig was being talked about as a lynch candidate, Burger voiced his disagreement and said he would "vote Diiny to protect sig" if he had to.
- Questions Diiny on his scum read of bcornett.
- Provided the game's first rainbow and stuck Diiny in the yellow center.
- Burger throws suspicion my way for my Day 1 "buddying" of Diiny, suggests it makes Diiny look more town to him (this almost surely stems from my scum game in RYM #82).

Notes: The most significant takeaway here is that Burger simply had a lot to say about Diiny. His attention was there even if his read wasn't threatening. I'd wager he talked more about Diiny in his short lifespan than anyone else, with the only possible exception being me -- and when he talked to me he was talking about Diiny.

Night 2 victim: FZ and Diiny

- On Day 1 she got in Diiny's grill about making posts that didn't progress a baddie-hunting strategy.
- Accuses Diiny of hypocrisy in a roundabout way regarding his criticism of Roxy on Day 1, then asserts he might have only started getting involved after she prodded him.
- "As for Diiny, I didn't see many reasons for alarm in his posts, but the thing that I agree makes him look bad is his focus on one player."
- "I'm not a fan of neither the Sig nor the Diiny lynch at this time. Just my two cents if anyone cares."
- Later clarifies that she doesn't see the case on sig. She sees some potentially troubling behavior from Diiny but thinks there are better options to lynch.

Notes: She had plenty to say to/about Diiny on Day 1 but her attention was diverted elsewhere after that. Like Burger, her read isn't quite threatening but it's not really positive either.

Night 4 victim: Golden and Diiny

- Voted for Diiny on Dusk 0
- Strong positive words about Diiny
- Disagrees with Diiny's read on bcornett.
- Vocally opposes Diiny lynch and says he'll vote to protect him if he needs to.
- Again opposes Diiny lynch on Day 2.
- Day 3 GTH town read
- Captain Insano Golden says... something?

Notes: When he talked about Diiny it was in a highly defensive way. Golden was undeniably an ally of Diiny. I do think though that we can glean the least from Golden's posts in this exercise simply because of the circumstances of his role outing. That alone is motive for a kill.

Night 9 victim #1: Epignosis and Diiny

Notes: Epi made nearly 500 posts and said basically nothing about Diiny. His interest in Diiny the player seemed limited to his place in the Day 6 tally. He did implicate him as a possible SK candidate though with his Night 5 zero posters theory.

Night 9 victim #2: Matt F and Diiny

- Day 5, prods Diiny to tell him who to vote for.
- Was intrigued by a Devin vote for Diiny supported with "reasons", thought perhaps Devin saw something about Diiny in the spectator chat (Heaven role).
- GTH bad read Day 7
- Pledged to ISO Diiny when I asked him for his perspective of the seaside controversy
- Calls me mafia when Diiny gives him some crap on Day 9 for the way he worded an accusation

Notes: Not much to see here. Diiny did seem to elevate his suspicion of Matt late in the phase prior to his death, for whatever that's worth.

Night 10 victim: Strawhenge and Diiny

- Day 1, agrees that Diiny's play is more aggressive than usual
- References Diiny as a suspect in light of Burger being killed
- Diiny gives him crap for focusing on Burger's posts on Day 2 and Straw explains himself -- looking for clues in the night kill. Straw was probably 11 cycles ahead of me here.
- Day 6, voices mild suspicion of Diiny for his absence
- Day 6, GTH scum read on Diiny, later grades him at 2/5 stars
- Refused to vote for Diiny or Mac when motel room and I put pressure on him at the end of Day 6
- GTH town read on Day 7, 2.5/5 stars grade
- 3/5 stars on Day 10

Notes: Straw started out suspicious of Diiny and very gradually developed a more positive outlook, without ever staunchly defending him. The Strawhenge kill was likely motivated at least in part to smear Marsh though, whoever did it.

Night 11 victim: RadicalFuzz and Diiny

- Gives a "shrug emoticon" read on Diiny on Day 4
- GTH good read on Day 7
- Prods Diiny to expand on his Day 10 suspicion of him and then defends himself in a few posts
- Approves of my green read on Diiny as an unlikely mafia member
- Defends himself some more on Day 11 against Diiny interrogation after his controversial Bullzeye vote/comments

Notes: Fuzz was never an enemy of Diiny in the thread, but later in the game progressing towards Fuzz's death Diiny was vocally very suspicious of Fuzz. If he's the SK, the kill then makes sense from the perspective that he was trying to offset the apparent mafia advantage.

Night 12 victim: DrWilgy and Diiny

- Not interested in lynching Diiny on Days 1 or 2
- Diiny not included in his LC/bcornett lynch wagons analysis
- GTH good read on Day 7
- Supports Diiny on one point of suspicion against Choutas on Day 9
- Defends himself often against mounting Diiny suspicion on Days 10 and 11

Notes: This is almost a copy of the Fuzz content. There's not much there until the most recent phases when Diiny went hard against Wilgy. I think it's likely that the SK's objective over the last two kills was to remove a mafia member, and both of the names chosen fit Diiny's read progressions.

~~~

Conclusion:

I think the most telling things here are the first kill and the last two kills. Burger dedicated a lot of his posts to the matter of Diiny, and even if it wasn't quite negative press it was still press. That is enough of a reason for a self-aligned SK to be perturbed I think. The last two kills strike me as attempts by the SK to eliminate mafia members, and Diiny's reads over Days 10-12 would support those two being names he would select.

Diiny seems like a perfectly viable SK candidate to me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Checking into SK victims' content about Ricochet:

HamburgerBoy:

- It looks like I accidentally attributed a Rico post to Diiny in the first analysis. When Burger was critical of a Day 1 scum read on bcornett, it was Rico's read and not Diiny's. That continues here.
- Center yellow in Burger's Day 1 rainbow

Notes: I acknowledge my error here, though I don't think it has a significant effect on my read. The primary note of interest for Burger/Diiny was only that he talked about him so much -- that holds true still. If Rico killed Burger then it was a rather arbitrary choice.

FZ:

- FZ was clearly suspicious of Rico early in the game.
- "Backed off a little" on Day 1 to avoid tunnel vision in her bad read of Rico
- Suspicious of Rico's treatment of bcornett on Day 1
- Maintains Rico as a suspect into Day 2 despite moving against Epi more aggressively
- Feeling better about Rico later in Day 2

Notes: I suspect this will be the most intriguing thing to emerge from this review. While FZ's suspicion of Rico did wane with time, it was still clearly present and she was obviously paying more attention to him than she was most others.

Golden:

- Is uneasy about Rico on Day 1
- Suspicious enough for a vote here.
- Agreed with LC's proposed link between bea and Rico on Day 1
- Mostly doesn't seem satisfied with Rico's answers to his suspicions
- Suspicion continues and worsens into Day 2
- Includes Rico on a Day 3 scum list
- GTH scum read on Day 3
- After the forced lynch of bea and town flip, Golden's read of Rico changed significantly for the better

Notes: This is a lot like the FZ review just was. Hard suspicion is consistently expressed until an abrupt moment in which it recedes. I think these two kills make sense for Rico.

Epignosis:

- On Day 2, accuses Rico of making one big ass post full of nothing
- Verbally supports my push to lynch Rico on Day 3
- Tells Rico he doesn't consider the SK an immediate priority on Day 4
- Some Day 5 banter about meta and the espers case
- Calls for people to trust him on Night 5 by lynching one among Mac, Black Rock, Russ, Rico, and bcornett
- Reiterates a point made by Rico against Mac on Day 6
- Waves off Rico's Day 8 suggestion that the SK may have deliberately skipped a kill
- Rico among the least implicated in Epi's zero posters theory
- Defends his ambivalent read on me in the face of Rico's questioning
- Tries to calm the Mattzmanian Devil down when he started building an anti-Rico case on Day 9
- Credits Rico's analyses for producing results he agreed with
- States a clear non-mafia read on Rico late on Day 9

Note: Here's another one. Epi was anti-Rico earlier in the game and eventually became a strong Rico supporter. At this point it seems Rico would not be concerned with winning people over if he is the SK, because the last three kills would all be despite him having done that. The last two were more believable because the timing still coincided decently -- FZ and Golden hadn't warmed to Rico long before their demise. With Epi, it was a progressive and long development towards a positive read -- and eventually that read was strong enough that I think a SK Rico would have outright benefited from Epi's continued survival.

Matt F:

- Defends his focus on Day/Dusk 0 material on Day 2 when questioned by Rico
- Compliments Rico for his Day 4 post on LC interactions
- Prods some people including Ricochet to tell him who to vote for on Day 5
- Suspicious of Rico on Night 5 for his questions to the hosts about potential modkills and causing ties in the Day 0 thread
- Likes Rico's post about reading into new angles of the LC interactions like implicating Mac
- Calls Rico anti-mafia on Day 7
- Mildly susses Rico because of Black Rock's reaction to his first LC interaction post on Night 7
- Refused to give Epi all the credit for the Mac lynch and cited Rico's contribution on Day 8
- ISOs Rico on Day 9 and abruptly starts moving for a Rico lynch thinking he's mafia
- Uneasy about Rico's "scumslip" on Day 9
- Officially goes bonkers by GTHing Epi, Rico and I all as mafia
- Seems utterly convinced that Rico and I are mafia team mates later on Day 9
- Thirsts for Rico's blood
- Again wants to lynch either Rico or me next on Night 9
- Big ol' case against Rico on Night 9

Notes:

While it should be said that Matt's push to lynch Rico didn't garner much/any support, I must acknowledge that it happened and it was at its most intense on Night 9 -- the night Matt was killed. Could it be that his case against Rico was wrong (mafia-inclined) but still could have netted a productive lynch (SK)? If Rico is the SK then he blatantly slaughtered his biggest nemesis at the time, so this invites a pile of WIFOM: removing a threat, or smeared by someone else who wants it to look that way?

Strawhenge:

- "Vibey" town read on Rico on Day 1 but also granted FZ made a valid point against him
- Includes Rico on a scum list on Day 5
- GTH scum read on Day 6
- GTH town read on Day 7, 2.5 star grade
- Still 2.5 stars on day 10

Notes: Not much to see here. Strawhenge was suspicious of Rico at one point but never quite explained why. The town GTH reads don't mean a lot since he gave Rico the dead-center-neutral star grades twice. Like with Hamburger, this would strike me as an arbitrary kill by Rico -- unless it was meant to smear MM (and anyone could have done that except MM).

RadicalFuzz:

- Wonders where Rico "ran off to" on Day 5
- Day 7 GTH read good
- Laments that he looks dirtier than Rico on Day 9
- Content with my green read on Rico (non-mafia read)
- Pep talks Rico on Day 11. I love me a good pep talker, you're the man Fuzz.
- Misinterprets Rico sarcastically calling me scum

Notes: Not much to see here either. Rico's own read on Fuzz was pretty inconsistent -- he never seemed to fully commit one way or the other. This leads me to suggest that a Fuzz kill by Rico would also be rather arbitrary.

DrWilgy:

- Lists Rico at mild orange threat-level in his LC lynch wagons analysis
- GTH good read on Day 7
- Tells Fuzz he'd lynch me over Rico in a LyLo scenario on Day 10
- Misinterprets my non-SK read on Rico and asks if I'd be willing to lynch him on Night 10
- Asks Rico "who is not the SK" on Day 11
- Suggests Rico might have some ability to clear someone as a non-SK on Day 11

Notes: I think Doc made it pretty clear that he didn't believe Rico is the SK. If Rico made this kill then it'd probably be in an attempt to kill a mafia read. He wanted to lynch Doc over Bullzeye on Day 11 and seemed willing to lynch him again on Day 12.

~~~

Conclusion:

The most intriguing thing here is that the earlier pile of victims were all suspicious of Rico at one point or another save perhaps for Burger (who did express a mild sort of misgiving once). One can then fairly wonder whether Rico is the SK and has been systematically slaughtering his opposition. This can also be questioned because three of his early opponents (FZ, Golden, and Epi) all eventually warmed to him and read him more positively before they were killed. The latter half of his victims offer pretty inconclusive material here save for Matt F -- the one kill that I think can be most logically assigned to Ricochet.

There's also the matter of Night 5. If we're to believe (I think fairly) that there was no attempted kill by the SK on Night 5, then it's hard to believe Rico is the guy. He had 27 posts as counted by Epi on Night 5 and almost certainly wouldn't have missed his PM to the hosts. This means he'd have had to deliberately skip his kill (something he did suggest was a possibility insert OMG emoticon). This requires a thick layer of tin foil.

I'll present a general question in my next post about the Night 5 situation.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Question to everyone alive, since three of you have much more experience with The Syndicate than I do:

I there anything you can think of that might cause the Night 5 serial killer kill attempt to be absent from MP's host post that night? We know already that he answered this question himself in a seemingly conclusive manner, but I don't know what potential loopholes might exist and this is your opportunity to tell me about them.

Are there any precedents set in TS lore that might offer an alternative explanation for the one generally being accepted?

[Marmot]

Question to everyone alive, since three of you have much more experience with The Syndicate than I do:

I there anything you can think of that might cause the Night 5 serial killer kill attempt to be absent from MP's host post that night? We know already that he answered this question himself in a seemingly conclusive manner, but I don't know what potential loopholes might exist and this is your opportunity to tell me about them.

Are there any precedents set in TS lore that might offer an alternative explanation for the one generally being accepted?

In our lore? Not that I know of.

The only explanation I have (aside from the Epignosis theory), is that the PSK intentionally skipped the nightkill in an effort to throw off pursuit of him. But, there are only a couple players I would not put that past, and neither of them are currently alive in this game.

[Ricochet]

Fell asleep, don't even remember logging off (does that happen automatically after some time?). No Mafia dreams this time.

Thanks for those, JJJ, that angle is definitely helpful (and shorter to assess, in a way), but I'm going to push ahead with mine as well, at least as much as time will permit (which, as I've said, won't be enough in general). Can you do Russ as well, for safe measure?

As for the notes on me, while I still don't have any background or experience as a designated killer (mafia or SK/LMS) (only a teammate getting to pitch in on kill choices) in order to give you clear, psychological rebuttals (not that it wouldn't count as WIFOM, anyway) to your interpretations of my possible actions, here's my take on it:

-- I believe it to be obvious that Government disappeared around the N3 kills time, making FZ. a candidate for that role; if she was Government, then I don't think her suspicion of me simply waned off naturally, but that's obviously pretty much all I can say

-- yes, Golden and I were pretty confrontational in this game, to the point of arguing over meta and over what we're actually trying to achieve by going at each other; I see my defending against Golden not being different, really, from my huge barks against my D3 hounders, of which you and Diiny are still alive, Zebra was killed by Mafia and the other voters (whilst less hounders themselves and more voters or wagoners) were mislynched. Given this field, I see no reason to have made an exception out of Golden. If anything, I was driven by my confrontation with Golden to vote him on D3 and push him into lynch, rather being blinded as to read into his true intentions of wanting to get lynched.

Anyway, what I want to say, more to the point, is that such a suss - defense game I played with Golden would not make me in any way anxious or make me desire to remove Golden simply for stalking me every time I go get bread, to see if I'm not snatching some knives as well

-- with Epig, past the first rounds of suss, I like to believe that I progressively convinced mostly everyone with a town mindset of my good intentions and efforts (in this regard, I feel the mafia and the SK also behaved, rather than attempting to paintspray me), especially after D6 (vote mistakes and wobbles afterwards notwithstanding). I never felt Epig's suss call on me was deep, considering he never built a case around me to the extent he did on Bullzeye, Black Rock, Russ, Mac, seaside and so on. He still resonated with others suspecting me, until he didn't - and all of these were simply moments, rather than continuous assessments (we somehow still never seem to connect beyond such fragmentary interactions, in the games we play together)

-- at this point, I agree Matt's death is probably the biggest one that could be placed in my account, but I have two things to say here: 1) Since I'm not the SK, I tend to believe Matt's death is maybe an attempt to spray me as the serial killer and divert attention from the real serial killer. It reminds me of Recruitement IV and me having (as usual, sadly) a big spat with LoRab. Right when that confrontation reached boiling point, one of the killers decided to kill one of the two members in this dialogue, i.e. LoRab. He failed to do so, but the effect was that LoRaB herself suspected me wanting to shut her up. So I believe this effect can be sought out, as a tactic, by killers outside a confrontation rather than inside it. 2) Killing Matt, as the SK or mafia, in the midst of such intense confrontation, would actually make me more anxious than not. I don't know how much of our Syndicate Mafia time together you recall, JJJ, but the degree of connection a kill can lead back to its killer is quite important for me, when I'm mafia and think about who the team should kill. It rather makes me want to let the hounder live and face the challenge of open confrontation, rather than suppress the hounder and create the least desirable ripple effect: people suspecting the hounded for it. This is WIFOM, of course, but it's consistent with my previous mindsets as a baddie.

-- I thought Strawhenge's death, at the time of it, was either MM going balls to the walls (it still wasn't clear for me, at that time, who MM might be) or the SK wanting to spray all over MM

-- your Fuzz and Wilgy interpretations are pretty much the same for Diiny and me, so I can't add that much personal viewpoint to what is a more general scenario for the SK's moves; I can even agree that the SK may have wanted to keep the mafia numbers in check. In fact, I am shocked that the SK inadvertedly helped my dilemma regarding 'which of three players are the two remaining baddies" equation, instead of killing me or another civ and leaving the dilemma up in the air, making the civ's job far worse throughout this endgame. The only explanation I can think of is the SK being worried he might go through D13-N13 (in which the Mafia can also kill) with one too many mafiosos on the other side. He may have wanted to deal with the mafia, even by thinking there's only one left, because on N13 the mafioso might clip him with his kill, just as much as he might kill the mafioso on the same Night.

[Ricochet]

Now, here's two more bits of WIFOM for ya:

I would never, under normal circumstances, tactically abstain from delivering a kill or a bad action, if I'm bad and such powers serve my interest directly. To some extent, I can see the point in some civ powered players abstaining from using their powers, if it can prove detrimental to the general civ cause (I've given before the example of River accidentally taking a mafioso off the roster, at this very crucial point in the game, should he keep sending his two names; unfortunately, River was already dead by then). I agree with Epig's idea that killers abstaining from killing is not the rational way for them to behave.

If, by any wild stretch of the imagination*, I would be the SK and would have missed a N5 action, my instinct would have been to further replicate that succession of two kills then no kill, even at the risk of letting too many players live, in order to perhaps trick everyone into thinking it's a power-derived occurence. MM and I did have this thought, in fact, until we were proven wrong by the SK himself continuing to kill, after kill twice (and lately killing twice no matter what).

* to my recollection, in my gaming so far I have missed a vote during Lynch phases twice (Film Directors endgame and Watchmen D4 or D5), because of falling asleep, and once forgot to send my night power in Recruitement (a negative vote, I think, that I totally forgot about, because of a lynch turning into a snowball taking my mind off needing to insert some vote manipulation).

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Can you do Russ as well, for safe measure?

My programming only allows me to comply with requests for analysis. Stand by. Processing.

[Ricochet]

Diiny on Day 2

-- agrees with RDW's viewpoint (or meta reference) that death mourners might be the killers themselves (inadvertedly agrees with suspecting Llama for it?)
-- dislikes seaside calling OMGUS on JJJ
-- hella pinged by Sorsha and Strawhenge making WIFOM necklaces around each other's necks for talking about killing 4KJ
-- questions Strawhenge being focused on Ham; considers Strawhenge distancing himself from killing Ham
-- reads Wilgy's BWT the worst (despite, as I even pointed out back then, this being contradictory with agreeing with Wilgy on D1)
-- criticises seaside's meta game and votes for him; reconsiders after rebuttals
-- reissues intent to lynch b24, because of seeing no town activity from him whatsoever
-- plans to look at LC, although nothing stood out to him
-- rebuttal on me being pinged by his flip on Wilgy (did not endorse Wilgy's vote, only considered BWT on his own - I still find this exchange fishy, btw)
-- questions FZ's suspicion of Wilgy [what the hell, he just said he had a scum lean on Wilgy, as well]
-- would still vote Wilgy, but would consider securing b24 over LC
-- pinged by b24 wagon growing (...I think?)
-- makes another call for a Wilgy lynch
-- comments on MacDougall talking about a gut read on Llama, when Zebra questions that talk
-- questions what Floyd is up to (to the extent of a possible gambit)
-- lashes back at Llama's vote for him
-- questions JJJ staying with his vote on b24; stays pinged by JJJ to some extent
-- decides to spare Wilgy for the moment (because of doing some analysis) and votes Llama

Mafia interpretation: If Mafia, this certainly doesn't look to be Diiny's finest day. Only made one post of awareness on LC and then never checked him out, like he said he would. There's a comment about Zebra going at Mac for something that could read as very, very fine soft defending (but I'm not implying it weighs that much, it's more tinfoil) and, in context of b24 never having been voted by scum (other than LC in self-pres mode), his suss on b24 waning, simply because it started to look like a mislynch, can look a bit "yeah, I'll remove myself off him, too". Oh and he does make an aware post about Floyd acting weirdly, something that would probably be the norm for any teammate at that point.

Psycho Killer interpretation: Again, not his most consistent day, by comparing suspicions to where the votes landed (seaside, Llama). b24 suss went nowhere, Wilgy suss was his most consistent, but he lost faith in that due to context (no wagon on Wilgy) or BOTD'ing (Wilgy making efforts to look into things). His Llama vote is the most spontaneous and partially a bit of a NO U, as well, considering Llama's vote.

Amount of workload and hunting is fairly consistent compared to his D1, although I find it more focused, rather than agressive and jumping at everyone. Perhaps some fine-tuning here, after D1 got him in slight trouble?

Blind interpretation: If so, Diiny may have found reason to stick with a Llama vote as to not interfere with the main wagons. Although, it must be said that, after Diiny's vote, Llama himself became a top wagon for a while, so I'm doubting he projected his vote this way - and he had no control later, because of leaving for the day. Hence, I'm doubting he acted Blind-like or is in fact Blind at all.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Checking into SK victims' content about Russtifinko:

HamburgerBoy:

- Lists Russ mild green in his Night 1 rainbow.

Notes: That's it. Burger would be an arbitrary kill choice for Russ.

FZ:

- Says she could see Russ attempting frame Epi with the Night 1 kill of k4j, but favored other possibilities
- Neutral discussion of reads with Russ on Day 2
- Semi-jokes with Russ about teaming up to lynch Epi
- Reiterates the possibility that the k4j kill was an attempt by Russ to frame Epi on Day 3
- Turns hard against Russ on Day 3 based on the timing of his Day 2 vote
Side note: if Russ is mafia-aligned, then FZ was all over this shit on Day 3
- Challenge's Wilgy's reasoning for showering praise on Russ for his Day 2 vote
- Maintains Russ suspicion and vote intent through Day 3

Notes: This makes it 3 for 3 in these analyses for players who would have any potential personal motive to kill FZ. She was suspicious of Rico and Russ for most of her lifespan, and paid a lot of attention to Diiny as well. This means drawing a comparison is a bit difficult -- but it can be said that her aggression was the most severe against Russ at the time of her death.

Golden:

- Favors reywaS over Russ on Day 1 when people were discussing a potential lurker lynch
- Day 3 GTH town read on Russ

Notes: I'm surprised to see so little. The only thing I can think of to personally link Russ to the Golden kill is his well-documented disdain for role-hinting (and Golden did more than just hint). That's reachy though.

Epignosis:

- Epi was vocally suspicious of Russ throughout Day 1. No need to reference every post.
- Suspicion persists through Day 3
- Still suspicious on Day 4
- Wants to lynch one among bcornett, Mac, and Russ on Day 5
- Reiterates the same with a couple extra names on Night 5
- This is horseshit. Russ and BR are team mates.
- Still a suspect on Night 7
- Doesn't implicate Russ as a SK suspect in his zero posters theory (Russ had 10 posts on Night 5)

Notes: Russ would obviously have plenty of motive to remove Epi from the game. Epi's suspicion was entirely mafia-oriented though, and I'm inclined to think he was right.

Matt F:

- "Russ looks completely anti-mafia to me" on Day 3
- "Definitely anti-mafia" on Night 3, reiterated on Day 4
- Neutral discussion on Day 6 about Epi and Wilgy
- "What does everyone think of Russ making ANOTHER late late late vote on a baddie?" on Day 7
- Notes the suspicion BR cast on Russ
- Reviews Russ more thoroughly on Day 8, downgrades read to "neutral"
- Does not endorse Russ lynch
- GTH good read on Russ on Day 9 based on vague role guessing
- Outright "civvie" later read on Day 9

Notes: If Russ is the SK, then he killed his biggest foe (Epignosis) and biggest ally (Matt) at the same time.

Strawhenge:

- GTH town read on Day 6
- Again on Day 7, with a 4 star rating
- Suggests Russ is the "least scummy" on Day 10, 3 star rating

Notes: I don't think Russ would have any discernible motive to kill Strawhenge aside perhaps from smearing MM (applicable to anyone).

RadicalFuzz:

- GTH town read on Day 7
- Russ is one of his top three suspects on Day 11 based on his interactions with Bullzeye

Notes: There's very little to see here. Fuzz did oppose Russ a little earlier than the current field did though (referring solely to the recent climate of the thread, not the entire thread). This would be a slightly-less-than-arbitrary kill choice.

DrWilgy:

- Russ is his top performer in the LC wagons analysis
- Can't see Russ being bad unless bcornett is also bad
- Rainbows Russ in the orange zone on Day 6
- Vaguely suggests Russ might have BTSC with Mac
- GTH good read on Day 7
- GTH bad read on Day 12
- Says he intends to build a case on Russ on Night 12 but dies

Notes: The timing of Doc's suspicion lines up with the kill, though he's not alone in that regard. I think for the most part this kill reflects the same way on all three people I've checked -- it was probably an attempt to kill a mafioso.

~~~

Conclusion:

Some of his opposition died and some of his allies died at the hands of the SK. I think an argument can be made that Russ is the SK, but it'd be a weaker argument than the alternatives. In fact, my confidence in Russ being a mafioso instead of the SK increased as I compiled this and saw old thread data again with all current knowledge in hand.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Voting for Diiny.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'll be out for a while. I'll be back with plenty of time to spare before the deadline though.

[Ricochet]

Diiny on Day 3

-- apologetic post about being limited to phone mafia
-- unconcerned by JJJ making "creepy" posts about wanting to flip (?); makes a projection of JJJ being readable through his reads/analysis not looking well or such
-- questions Floyd's vote and activity
-- feels better about Wilgy, although aware he could tinfoil his effort into having bussed LC (but not pursuing this angle); still unhappy about Llama
-- comments on being glad he didn't jump on b24 wagon
-- pinged by my read on LC before his flip; sees my defense as WIFOM-filled
-- lashes at Llama for commenting on too much posts flooding the thread and making it hard for him to keep up
-- continues suspicion on me for sounding caveaty in assessing LC
-- agrees with Mac on both Llama continuing to look scummy AND his counterwagon being, however, unlikely to be also a bad one (although confuses the facts in saying the llama wagon never picked up)
-- sticks vote on me, finding me defensive and keen to misinterpret accusations

Mafia interpretation: Again aware of Floyd's odd behaviour being off the charts. That "I'm glad I listened to my senses and didn't vote b24" is either purely ironic or quite telling, in context of scum holding off the b24 wagon. Attack on me waffling on LC could be a genuine one or an easy spray target. All these are not really strong observations, however, more on the thin line between "possible" and "reading too much into". But man, so far, until the main game-changer D6 event, I feel I wouldn't have any problem reading Diiny as mafia for these details on D2-D3.

Psycho Killer intepretation: Not much to read into, honestly, his activity dropped due to RL, but his focused increase, by keeping alive a llama suspicion and developing the one on me. If the SK was as consistent and hunt-prone as possible, this looks as consistent and hunt-prone as it can get.

Blind interpretation: His range would have been back at 0 during this Day, so he would have had no issues with pursuing a top wagon.

This day comes off pretty null, overall, in terms of some aspect making the needle start dancing towards a particular faction.

[Ricochet]

I'll be here during this afternoon, but I also have homework, which I'm planning to start soon, rather than staying hooked online. I'll also be here during the last two hours or so.

[Ricochet]

I'll probably make these up to D6 and then halt, to focus on RL business.

Diiny on Day 4

-- missed most of the Day, amuses himself of players thinking he was silenced or such
-- scrambles for some leads re: Sorsha or Devin; questions Sorsha having been a wagon or not on D2, I think?
-- decides for a banter vote on Golden, because he's not informed

Mafia / SK / whatever: null. out of touch seems genuine. Since I'm certain right now that he's bad, his vote move was an easy way out of the situation, regardless, but this activity is technically not something you can put it on the balance and start shouting "yeah, here's your scummy evidence".

Diiny on Night 4*

* hmm, first Night I recall Diiny posting at all. Very interesting taciturn tactic, for a baddie, either way. Probably started posting during the Nights to overcompensate his lack of activity during the Day, due to RL reasons.

-- plans to check what is up with Devin, reevaluate b24, check for bandwagons on Sorsha mislynch, re-check me and Wilgy, plans to read into how fingersplints is doing, in lieu of former suspect Llama

Mafia interpretation: Either an ill-advised (as town) or a well-placed (as mafia) focus on judging bandwagons and whether the mislynched player had a bad counterwagon. What I'm trying to say is that it's worth keeping in mind that this mentality caused us a lot of trouble, until we somewhat finally switched perspective. If he's mafia, Diiny fueled this a bit.

Psycho Killer interpretation: Just as much tinfoiling here as above, but as serial killer, this can be an attempt to cover all leads and re-assert how focused he is on multiple suspects.

Diiny on Day 5

-- apologetic post and "jumping straight into action"
-- criticises Wilgy for near-waffle scum read on JJJ
-- returns to feeling that Wilgy casing LC so late is not actually a good sign
-- plans to re-read me, drops it after seeing I have seven pages of history
-- rebutalls to me questioning his Wilgy suss thought process and his Golden vote
-- curious of Devin not interacting with him, although he insisted on getting thoughts out of everyone, suspects bandwagoning; exchange with Devin goes nowhere
-- rebuttal to JJJ calling him pretending to much out of people and failing to place a vote in the Devin/Sorsha wagons, despite having previous awareness -- stats that town Diiny doesn't make blind [no pun intended] decisive moves
-- votes JJJ for pep talking the field
-- further rebuttal to JJJ's suss on him
-- in reply to Mac, comments on Devin's replacement request, finds it a joke, but then also a possibility of a caveat; votes Devin
-- confirms abandoning Rico reads, focuses on espers
-- rebuttal to JJJ on Devin vote - pushing for response; further rebuttals
-- weirded out by a WIFOM-looking statement from espers
-- rethinks about Devin doing self-vote scum caveats
-- votes espers instead
-- his vote on espers putting him and Devin at 6-6, the following two posts explain eagerness to see a dev flip happening "no matter what" or, in reply to Mac, with whom he agrees, seeing a coin flip

Mafia interpretation: Can be read mostly as possible waffle between two wagons he'd be aware would not flip mafia. For a moment, that "toin coss" talk at the Eod, especially with a baddie such as MacBaddie, made me jump a bit at the thought of mafiosi snickering out loud about this lynch result - but, as I've explained above, it sounds genuine that Diiny didn't anticipate two more votes on espers, after his.

Psycho Killer interpretation: Another attempt to stick to his main suspicions, at least early on, afterwards becoming focused on current events. Focus and language are not as confident as on the first three Days, I should say, so the SK inside Diiny might have been struggling to keep up and look attached to a main story.

Consistency seems to be, again, the main drive. To anticipate Diiny's complaints at this remark, no, I cannot completely distinguish this being SK rather than town, but consistency and civ-looking games can be definitory for an SK's tactics.

Blind interpretation: Just like JJJ's vote, if he is Blind instead, Diiny's vote could have added to Devin's misery (minus 1 on espers, plus Devin being drugged = life sucks). Not to mention Pulled Up might have also been there on Devin, if he was b24.

Diiny on N5

Diiny was absent. SK did not make a move. Empiricism sucks.

Diiny on D6

Diiny was absent. Nearly lynched, as counter to a confirmed baddie.

Mafia interpretation: "I'm gonna say nothing against me becoming a counter-wagon and will agree to take one for the team, for Mac's sake, despite the fact that until the build up of the wagon, I was still looking slightly better than Mac at this point in the collective's mentality"...? I'd say nope on this.

Psycho Killer interpretation: "I'm gonna say or do nothing about potentially being clipped, because of a scum vs town confrontation, and lose the game due to misfortune"...? Naw, sounds more like SK absent was still absent. Diiny's prolonged absence only emphasizes further, for me at least, the odds of him being SK due to the N5 miss.

===

Imma stop here with the analysis, but before I do that, I want to point out that Diiny's reaction to his near lynch was "(And you may ask yourself:) How did I get so popular all of a sudden?". In context of him being a baddie, it sounds like a shrug off, in order to seem calm about how awful his situation nearly went. I can associate this more with SK doing a poker face moment than with a mafioso who, if really out of touch, probably still received around a million PMs from his teammates on how to handle the situation.

[Ricochet]

Color derp on D6, but a good opportunity to bump my count #0.9Kherewego

Psycho Killer interpretation: "I'm gonna say or do nothing about potentially being clipped, because of a scum vs town confrontation, and lose the game due to misfortune"...? Naw, sounds more like SK absent was still absent. Diiny's prolonged absence only emphasizes further, for me at least, the odds of him being SK due to the N5 miss.

[Diiny]

Decided to take yesterday off to let things brew.

The most important thing that occurred to me about night 5 (was it night 5?) is that I really, REALLY don't see why people are assuming that the most likely thing was for PSK to have missed his PMs. Pushing it like that and not even mentioning what I realised are quite obvious alternatives is making me uneasy.

PSK can have different amount of NKs on different days, and so far we have no fucking idea how or why the number changes. I think it's more than fair to assume that he could just have no NKs that day. SK's SECRETS and the provable inconsistency in his NK numbers are more than enough to warrant giving this a serious thought.

There's also the ridiculously slim possibility that I was framed by some attentive mofo but I'm not going to pretend that's likely.

I'm going to find our SK today. It will be my priority although I'll probably end up responding to some shit too

[Diiny]

Aren't arbitrary-ass kills a good sign when tracking the SK? Think that this guy's very aware that they're going to be analysed. I doubt they'd pick someone they were clearly banging on about in-thread. Pardon the wifom, but you should at least consider that the SK killed fuzz/wilgy to frame me specifically because of how I was going on about them, or was convinced by my scummy look on the two.

[Ricochet]

Decided to take yesterday off to let things brew.

The most important thing that occurred to me about night 5 (was it night 5?) is that I really, REALLY don't see why people are assuming that the most likely thing was for PSK to have missed his PMs. Pushing it like that and not even mentioning what I realised are quite obvious alternatives is making me uneasy.

The assumption that SK missed his PM is among the easiest to make, because:

a) there was no SK kill
b) Hosts confirmed that if the SK doesn't send a kill, they will not mention him in the Host Post
c) abstinence is not really common practice, at least here; feel free to tell me, with examples, if it is on RYM; heck, I even played a game on Jesus Toast Mafia and they started ripping inactives to shreds as soon as a killer role didn't do anything on a given Night, because of this exact assumption that that role derped and missed a PM
d) abstinence is not in the interest of a killer role (see Book of Epig, chapter 9, verses 12-13 on that), especially one that needs everybody dead

PSK can have different amount of NKs on different days, and so far we have no fucking idea how or why the number changes. I think it's more than fair to assume that he could just have no NKs that day. SK's SECRETS and the provable inconsistency in his NK numbers are more than enough to warrant giving this a serious thought.

I can no doubt agree, in principle, that the variability of the SK's kill attempt count can stem from his secrets. Problem is we can't define it, since the pattern is CHAOTIC.

N1 - one kill
N3 - one kill
N4 - TWO kills
N5 - NO kills
N7 - one kill
N9 - TWO kills
N10 - one kill
N11 - TWO kills
N12 - TWO kills

Explain to me why a host like MP would create a borderline schizophrenic SK role. There is no pattern in this, except that the kill count started to grow. N12 is compatible with the kill count starting to grow. A missed N5 kill is NOT compatible with the kill count starting to grow. It could be, in theory, compatible with a theory in which the SK gets to kill twice, then has no kill the subsequent night - but this was disproven already by the previous four Night phases.

There's also the ridiculously slim possibility that I was framed by some attentive mofo but I'm not going to pretend that's likely.

I've been thinking about it, but I give it just as much as credence as you do, basically, lol. Epig pulled a list of several people who didn't post on N5. Do you think the mofo was that attentive as to spot that all those six or seven players are not doing anything on Night 5 or that, among six or seven players, you are the most inactive of them, and plot something? I don't even recall you saying you will be out of business starting N5 (although you did foreshadow it with more RL announcements, previously), so can anyone be this attentive.

Do you think Russ was so attentive as to pull this on someone?
Do you think JJJ was so attentive as to pull this on someone?

[Ricochet]

Aren't arbitrary-ass kills a good sign when tracking the SK? Think that this guy's very aware that they're going to be analysed. I doubt they'd pick someone they were clearly banging on about in-thread. Pardon the wifom, but you should at least consider that the SK killed fuzz/wilgy to frame me specifically because of how I was going on about them, or was convinced by my scummy look on the two.

I believe JJJ proved that the Fuzz/Wilgy kills could stand for all three of us (Russ, myself and you) as wanting to remove mafia, not necessarily wanting to remove someone suspecting you.

[Diiny]

a) there was no SK kill
b) Hosts confirmed that if the SK doesn't send a kill, they will not mention him in the Host Post
c) abstinence is not really common practice, at least here; feel free to tell me, with examples, if it is on RYM; heck, I even played a game on Jesus Toast Mafia and they started ripping inactives to shreds as soon as a killer role didn't do anything on a given Night, because of this exact assumption that that role derped and missed a PM
d) abstinence is not in the interest of a killer role (see Book of Epig, chapter 9, verses 12-13 on that), especially one that needs everybody dead

...You're agreeing with me with some of those.

I'm telling you there's a reason OTHER THAN ABSITNENCE/ME MISSING PMs that PSK might not get a kill. I'm saying its within the limitations of his role, which is boltstered by the idea that, no, it's not within PSK's interest to miss an NK.

I agree that me not being here n5 is a reason that makes factual sense for the nk being missing but because of points c and d it's unlikely.

You say there's no pattern, but that's ignorant. OF COURSE THERE'S A PATTERN, WE JUST DON'T KNOW IT. SOMETHING has to be influencing how many NKs the psk gets. Does MP randomly decide whether he gets 1 or 2, and feels more like giving him 2 towards the end of the game? Yes, we've observed a growth, but that's just an observation. Something must be happening, something TIED TO THE SECRETS IN SK'S ROLE, that ALLOWS him to kill more. And you dismissing this is making me very uneasy. You just want to keep pushing your easy DIINY MISSED N5 button without even grappling with the SK's role.

And, no, I haven't found out the pattern. But it definitely exists, because the alternative is a role unlike any other role ever has its number of nks determined by however many MP feels like. I had a theory that it was to do with how many votes the PSK got in the previous day or something but it didn't work out. That's not because there's NO PATTERN, it's because I haven't found it yet.

[Ricochet]

No, you said you "don't see why people are assuming that the most likely thing was for PSK to have missed his PMs". I pointed that's because, factually, the SK clearly didn't send any PM and, comparing reasons, abstinence is unlikelier than the SK missing out on action.

I'm open to hearing ideas other than abstinence or missing out, sure.

You not being here N5 is a reason to believe you are the SK missing out because of you missing out on the Night. AND the following Day phase.

I didn't say there's no pattern, nor that the pattern is random. I said the pattern is chaotic. Me not being able to explain it doesn't mean I'll just file it under *secrets* and never try to process things.

For instance, processing that since the pattern "Two kills, then no kills" did NOT repeat afterwards, that does NOT exclude the option that the NK missed out on his N5 kills. Which puts you in the front seat as the candidate.

If the pattern above would have showed up again (which I also thought it would, until N10 proved me wrong), I would have said, "Yep. It's a pattern and part of the SK's secrets. No reason to suspect N5 for being a missed vote, nor suspect Diiny because he's the most obvious player who phased out at that time."

But since that's not the case...

[Ricochet]

I'll run the theory "SK is empowered to multiple kills, by not receiving votes at any time during a phase" through my personal stats:

D1 both you and Russ received votes - SK killed once
D3 Russ received votes, but you didn't - SK killed once
D4 none of you received votes - SK killed twice
D5 both of you received votes - SK did not kill
D7 both of you received votes - SK killed once
D9 Russ received votes, you didn't - SK killed twice
D10 none of you received votes - SK killed once
D11 you received votes, Russ didn't - SK killed twice
D12 none of you received votes - SK killed twice

Everything in this is erractic, so the theory can't form into a pattern.

[Ricochet]

Erratic*, even

Or better yet err-arctic

[Tangrowth]

Host Announcement:

Sloonei and I have decided that we will be ending Nights as soon as possible after they have started going forward until the game is complete, in the interest of wrapping up this endgame. The amount of Night actions we need is getting way too low to keep the phases 24 hours with potentially 4 or less players remaining.

If this is going to be a scheduling problem, PM me and Sloonei.

[Ricochet]

By my calculations, there's technically nothing JJJ and MM can do anymore during Nights, so I'm totally cool with Nights ending right away, even before allowing killers to send in any more kills. Yup.

What about D14? 48 hours, as usual? What does everyone else think?

[Ricochet]

Wait, you mean this game will eventually end?

[DrWilgy]

Host Announcement:

Sloonei and I have decided that we will be ending Nights as soon as possible after they have started going forward until the game is complete, in the interest of wrapping up this endgame. The amount of Night actions we need is getting way too low to keep the phases 24 hours with potentially 4 or less players remaining.

If this is going to be a scheduling problem, PM me and Sloonei.

I just imagined the virtual reality world you trapped us in begin to collapse. Armageddon style.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Alternative theories to consider and my immediate thoughts:

MM is the SK -- would have to mean that there are tally-affecting mechanics in the SK's *secrets* which would seem to make that role immensely powerful. That doesn't mean it isn't the case, but it forces us to speculate in a completely unknown realm. I do think his recent behavior is suggestive of a player who's role has been correctly identified too.

MM is mafia -- This would likely mean that Drugs is still alive and the motel room lynch was coordinated accordingly. His team mate could easily be either Rico or Russ in this scenario. If this is the case though, the game is essentially over for the townies barring some really lucky breaks. It's also possible Wilgy was Drugs and MM is the last mafioso. The lasting concern for me is that when his lynch seemed imminent he vanished from the thread in such a way that it made me feel really good about how he'd flip. I again reiterate though that in this phase he has behaved like a player whose role has been figured out (without outing himself). While my concerns persist, I don't know if we can afford to rely on a theory this complex.

Rico is the SK -- The possibility exists only if the Night 5 problem can be resolved somehow, but if it can be then sure it's there. The primary issue I have is Rico's consistent immense effort throughout the game which would invite night kill attention from the mafia team and doesn't quite seem like self-aligned play. It could be that the *secrets* involve night kill protection of some kind which would be a bit less overpowered than lynch protection.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Here's the most obvious problem with any assertion that the SK missing Night 5 was related to the mechanics of the role rather than abstinence or absence:

Serial Killer (1)

~~~~> Kills every night <~~~~

*picture*

Psycho Killer – Better run run run run run run run awayyyyyyy. (Secrets)

That would mean that the *secrets* would invalidate the hosts' own claim that the SK kills every night. Is there a TS precedent for that kind of foolery?

[Diiny]

It has to be the case. I'm not the SK and the SK didn't kill. Either the SK missed a PM, which is unlikely, or PSK **can** kill every night but doesn't **have to**.

Also, if this were the case and the idea that I was the SK (which emerged pretty early) was formed because I was away, I'm sure the PSK found it within his interest to not substitute his kill for whatever the fuck he was doing on night 5.

[Diiny]

OR. PSK tried to kill ??? from night 4 again, not realising that there's a double targeting rule until it was too late?

Something like this has to have happened, because I'm not the sk. As much as you all believe it. Gah

[Diiny]

I'd also like to point out that during my discussions with rico, we disagreed over what SK-ish behaviour is like, he suggested 'not finding things to be able to grasp onto' as SKish. I'm reminded of the night bullzeye was lynched (I think?) when he had his meltdown and looked very much as if he was struggling to find things to grasp onto.

Now, when we discussed this I said I didn't think being publicly lost and ambivalent was something the SK would do, but who knows Rico's SK game better than Rico?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also, if this were the case and the idea that I was the SK (which emerged pretty early) was formed because I was away, I'm sure the PSK found it within his interest to not substitute his kill for whatever the fuck he was doing on night 5.

I don't understand what you mean by this.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

OR. PSK tried to kill ??? from night 4 again, not realising that there's a double targeting rule until it was too late?

Something like this has to have happened, because I'm not the sk. As much as you all believe it. Gah

That rule is the norm on this site, and only you and I are not quite regulars here.

I'd also like to point out that during my discussions with rico, we disagreed over what SK-ish behaviour is like, he suggested 'not finding things to be able to grasp onto' as SKish. I'm reminded of the night bullzeye was lynched (I think?) when he had his meltdown and looked very much as if he was struggling to find things to grasp onto.

Now, when we discussed this I said I didn't think being publicly lost and ambivalent was something the SK would do, but who knows Rico's SK game better than Rico?

Do you think he's the SK?

[Diiny]

I mean, I'm assuming the PSK can do something other than NK, as this is the most likely reason that he wasn't killing on night 5. Then he realised it looks like it looks like a missed NK PM and sees that everyone's linking me with that, and decides not to do whatever he was doing on night 5.

I mean, I'm guessing he has two actions per night, which is why he can nightkill twice on some days when he feels like it. I have no idea what else he could be doing, though, but he must have done it twice on night 5 if my thinking's right.

[Diiny]

I don't know. It's certainly be a point in his favour, but I do still believe that Russ lying low smells more like SK to me generally. I'm not done researching yet, but I'll have an answer in time to give it some decent discussion before the deadline.

[Diiny]

I'm also reminded of Rico being SUPER defensive AND wifommy on that day where I voted for him early on, and I'd expect the SK to be even more defensive than mafia. Also, his frustration of putting scum as a green skittle (his defence of which is the subject of said wifom) as the SK makes perfect sense. My gut is telling me Rico SK at this stage.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I mean, I'm assuming the PSK can do something other than NK, as this is the most likely reason that he wasn't killing on night 5. Then he realised it looks like it looks like a missed NK PM and sees that everyone's linking me with that, and decides not to do whatever he was doing on night 5.

I mean, I'm guessing he has two actions per night, which is why he can nightkill twice on some days when he feels like it. I have no idea what else he could be doing, though, but he must have done it twice on night 5 if my thinking's right.

Sorry I'm just having trouble following your thought process here. I don't quite understand what you mean by the highlighted portions or how you're coming to these conclusions.

[Diiny]

What else was the SK doing on night 5? Probably not missing his PM.

[Diiny]

I mean, he might have been doing nothing, but that seems unlikely unless I do find some kind of pattern like I was talking about earlier.

[Marmot]

MM is mafia -- This would likely mean that Drugs is still alive and the motel room lynch was coordinated accordingly. His team mate could easily be either Rico or Russ in this scenario. If this is the case though, the game is essentially over for the townies barring some really lucky breaks. It's also possible Wilgy was Drugs and MM is the last mafioso. The lasting concern for me is that when his lynch seemed imminent he vanished from the thread in such a way that it made me feel really good about how he'd flip. I again reiterate though that in this phase he has behaved like a player whose role has been figured out (without outing himself). While my concerns persist, I don't know if we can afford to rely on a theory this complex.

It's not that I intentionally vanished from the thread, but I was out of town with a friend for the day, so my ability to post was limited.

[Marmot]

OR. PSK tried to kill ??? from night 4 again, not realising that there's a double targeting rule until it was too late?

Something like this has to have happened, because I'm not the sk. As much as you all believe it. Gah

Ricochet, Russ, and I are all knowledgeable of the double-targetting rules.

I would imagine Jay is too, but that's a bigger assumption.

[Marmot]

What else was the SK doing on night 5? Probably not missing his PM.

As Jay pointed out, he still kills nightly.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Diiny, you just do your work to build your cases, whatever they might be, and I'll be ready to observe and make a judgment. I don't want to impede your ability to do that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We have 3.5 hours.