Dune [ENDGAME]

[Matt]

I really wish you (Golden) would share more with us about your trust in FZ and how it came to be.

I've been working very hard, espeically by way of observing others responses to what happens in the game and various discussions and hints, to establish which house I believe each player to be in. There have been good reasons why this has felt like a good strategy for figuring out the game, not least of which is your own contributions. I believe I have established the house of many players. FZ is one. I believe there is evidence as to which house she is in, and I don't think it's Harkonnen.

I won't say more - I'll let FZ claim which house if she will, because even ruling out Harkonnen, if I'm wrong and she wanted to lie she only has a 25% chance of guessing right.

What house do you have me pegged for? What about bea? Just curious.

And no, I'm not accusing bea again, I'm just wondering.

[Golden]

I really wish you (Golden) would share more with us about your trust in FZ and how it came to be.

I've been working very hard, espeically by way of observing others responses to what happens in the game and various discussions and hints, to establish which house I believe each player to be in. There have been good reasons why this has felt like a good strategy for figuring out the game, not least of which is your own contributions. I believe I have established the house of many players. FZ is one. I believe there is evidence as to which house she is in, and I don't think it's Harkonnen.

I won't say more - I'll let FZ claim which house if she will, because even ruling out Harkonnen, if I'm wrong and she wanted to lie she only has a 25% chance of guessing right.

What house do you have me pegged for? What about bea? Just curious.

And no, I'm not accusing bea again, I'm just wondering.

I have you pegged as Atriedes. I feel pretty good about that. Not certain, but I feel good about it.

I have bea pegged as Fremen, but I'm a lot less sure. I'd have that at about 70%.

I'm not going to answer in respect of any more people, because I don't want to narrow down options for other people to presume where they fit into in my 'theory of the game'.

[Golden]

I also have BR and draconus pegged as something, btw. That bit I'm kind of a little proud of!

[Matt]

Golden - So do you still think I'm Wellington (you're wrong, btw) and now that Floyd is dead, do you think Wellington has been recruited by someone else?

[Golden]

Golden - So do you still think I'm Wellington (you're wrong, btw) and now that Floyd is dead, do you think Wellington has been recruited by someone else?

The Wellington thing was just a theory - I had no proof of it in any direction (or even that Wellington is a traitor). And I'll admit, it was paranoia about you defending Floyd, and I feel a lot better about you now that that has passed with Floyd not being Harkonnen.

And if you are honest about you not being Wellington - then no, I don't think Wellington has been recruited, I think Wellington is dead.

[Elohcin]

I really wish you (Golden) would share more with us about your trust in FZ and how it came to be.

I've been working very hard, espeically by way of observing others responses to what happens in the game and various discussions and hints, to establish which house I believe each player to be in. There have been good reasons why this has felt like a good strategy for figuring out the game, not least of which is your own contributions. I believe I have established the house of many players. FZ is one. I believe there is evidence as to which house she is in, and I don't think it's Harkonnen.

I won't say more - I'll let FZ claim which house if she will, because even ruling out Harkonnen, if I'm wrong and she wanted to lie she only has a 25% chance of guessing right.

What house do you have me pegged for? What about bea? Just curious.

And no, I'm not accusing bea again, I'm just wondering.

I think I know who belongs to what house as well for most of the players Although I feel like I am back to square one on who the last Hark may be.

[Elohcin]

These are the players, in alphabetical order, that I think have any chance of being the last Hark. Of course I suspect come more than others and one, I don;t even really suspect at all. I will review them as thoroughly as I can before I vote. I still have this nagging feeling that Niju is bad and seeing how quiet she can be before anyone looks at her .

Bea
Banana
FZ
Niju
Sorsha

[bea]

You don't have luke on that list. Any reason why?

I understand my placement on the list even though I'm not hark.

I agree actually with your remaining list of possibilities. Adding luke instead of me.

[Golden]

Yes, eloh, I'm interested in luke is not on that list? If we could rule him out, wow. I haven't been able to yet. And do you find it at all persuasive that banana hasn't been around but zebra still died?

[MacDougall]

Here is my jive.

Golden is this Wellington Goober who got recruited at some point.

I reckon the scumdogs are at least two now.

I reckon eldawg is the rogue.

The ridgy scum is niju.

I reckon the factions are like ... I reckon Fremen and Emp have to eliminate each other and survive to take solo win or something like that.

Do I sound ridic?

[Golden]

Does it sound daft to me that I would be the one to point out the possibility that Wellington, specifically, could be a recruit if I was that role?

Yes. I do think that sounds daft.

[MacDougall]

I reckon that would be perfectly likely.

[MacDougall]

Hey goldilocks. How do you know bout my thing that I can do?

[bea]

Here is my jive.

Golden is this Wellington Goober who got recruited at some point.

I reckon the scumdogs are at least two now.

I reckon eldawg is the rogue.

The ridgy scum is niju.

I reckon the factions are like ... I reckon Fremen and Emp have to eliminate each other and survive to take solo win or something like that.

Do I sound ridic?

All I have to do is kill hark. Though I don't know if my entire faction shares my win con.

[Golden]

I think the smuggler/rogue may be banana. We haven't seen any ill effects from this role (as far as I'm aware) even though I feel we might have expected to.

[MacDougall]

I think the smuggler/rogue may be banana. We haven't seen any ill effects from this role (as far as I'm aware) even though I feel we might have expected to.

I am going by the assumption that the person who is influencing votes and polls is the rogue.

[Golden]

I think the smuggler/rogue may be banana. We haven't seen any ill effects from this role (as far as I'm aware) even though I feel we might have expected to.

I am going by the assumption that the person who is influencing votes and polls is the rogue.

You think the same person is influencing both? That's a possibility I hadn't considered.

However, I mentioned earlier that epi doesn't allow self-targetting as a host. If the rogue is taking names off the poll, it isn't luke.

[MacDougall]

I don't think that the self targeting rule eliminates the pissibility of a role being that they are able to take themselves off the poll once per game or something.

I am just thinking that a smuggler would be a wheeler dealer type of character and since they seem not to have kills significant vote and poll influence would make sense. Otherwise the rogue is pretty hamstrung. I was thinking their role allowed them to force votes or to remove people. Something like that.

[MacDougall]

Heh pissibility.

[Golden]

Heh pissibility.

Good word

[FZ.]

I think I've made it quite clear that I'm a Fremen in those posts that were deleted. So whoever saw them, should have known. I'm not going to repeat what I said there because Epi didn't like what I asked.

I'm sorry Floyd. I was hesitant in those last few hours but was left with no choice but to vote for you, because it was me against you, and you voting for me did not help matters.


So after I asked SVS where she remembers me as a baddie, since she said that baddie FZ acts in a certain way, and it wasn't here on TS, she said it's probably from my original home site. So I just went to check and SVS played only two games over there. Interestingly, I was a townie in both.


What say you all now? Is SVS lying? I'd say she is.

[Golden]

Thanks FZ. I never saw those posts that were deleted, but I can confirm that I had deduced you to be House Fremen.

[FZ.]

Thanks FZ. I never saw those posts that were deleted, but I can confirm that I had deduced you to be House Fremen.

And what do you think about what I said about SVS? She's never played with me as a baddie, yet she claims to know how I act as one. Doesn't it look to you like maybe she was just trying to make me look bad?

[Elohcin]

You don't have luke on that list. Any reason why?

I understand my placement on the list even though I'm not hark.

I agree actually with your remaining list of possibilities. Adding luke instead of me.

I actually forgot him, thank you for pointing that out.

I think the smuggler/rogue may be banana. We haven't seen any ill effects from this role (as far as I'm aware) even though I feel we might have expected to.

I am going by the assumption that the person who is influencing votes and polls is the rogue.

You think the same person is influencing both? That's a possibility I hadn't considered.

However, I mentioned earlier that epi doesn't allow self-targetting as a host. If the rogue is taking names off the poll, it isn't luke.

I don't think it's the same person.

Thanks FZ. I never saw those posts that were deleted, but I can confirm that I had deduced you to be House Fremen.

And what do you think about what I said about SVS? She's never played with me as a baddie, yet she claims to know how I act as one. Doesn't it look to you like maybe she was just trying to make me look bad?

I think SVS is a misguided civ or recruit.

[Golden]

Thanks FZ. I never saw those posts that were deleted, but I can confirm that I had deduced you to be House Fremen.

And what do you think about what I said about SVS? She's never played with me as a baddie, yet she claims to know how I act as one. Doesn't it look to you like maybe she was just trying to make me look bad?

SVS is someone I have a notable history of being unable to read. I think it is possible she is 'trying to make you look bad'. I also think it is possible she has just convinced herself you are bad. I think its also possible that your death is part of her win condition, even if she is not otherwise bad.

I don't think she is Feyd-Rautha, though.

[FZ.]

Okay, if no one else thinks SVS is bad, I'm letting it go. I made terrible judgements this game, so maybe this is just another one of them

It leaves me with Luke and Blooper.

With Luke, the strongest reason to see him as baddie is how he defended Floyd when there was a tie between MM and Floyd, and the deadline had passed. Only then did Luke say he didn't see why Floyd was getting votes. He had no problem voting for him last day.
In his favour, if he's bad, he didn't really have a reason to jump on the Floyd lynch last day. But if one of his team buddies are still talking to him BTSC, it's more plausible.


With Bloop, Sig took out BR who voted for him on the first day. Blooper voiced suspicion of him but only voted for him on the second day when no one else voted for him, but not on the first day when he had 2 votes. Sig killed Drac on the second night (his other voter from day 1), who was not an active player at all, but left Blooper, who was the only one to vote for him that day, alive. She didn't vote for him the next day either. She voted Floyd after me. She also didn't vote TH, but voted Eloh instead. No idea where that vote came from.


Out of these two, I'd say Blooper feels worse.

[bea]

I agree with your analysis FZ - my two are luke and blooper.

[Luke11646]

Okay, if no one else thinks SVS is bad, I'm letting it go. I made terrible judgements this game, so maybe this is just another one of them

It leaves me with Luke and Blooper.

With Luke, the strongest reason to see him as baddie is how he defended Floyd when there was a tie between MM and Floyd, and the deadline had passed. Only then did Luke say he didn't see why Floyd was getting votes. He had no problem voting for him last day.
In his favour, if he's bad, he didn't really have a reason to jump on the Floyd lynch last day. But if one of his team buddies are still talking to him BTSC, it's more plausible.


With Bloop, Sig took out BR who voted for him on the first day. Blooper voiced suspicion of him but only voted for him on the second day when no one else voted for him, but not on the first day when he had 2 votes. Sig killed Drac on the second night (his other voter from day 1), who was not an active player at all, but left Blooper, who was the only one to vote for him that day, alive. She didn't vote for him the next day either. She voted Floyd after me. She also didn't vote TH, but voted Eloh instead. No idea where that vote came from.


Out of these two, I'd say Blooper feels worse.

I had to re-read the thread and didn't have much time so I stuck a vote in and re-read the thread and I thought Floyd was civvie at the time, but I changed my mind and thought he was bad, it turns out I was wrong to change my mind.

[Matt]

I trust bea that she believes SVS to be civvie, but I'd still like SVS to answer FZ in regards to FZ's meta. Cuz that is kinda strange.

Also, ISO'd a few players. Lots of thoughts, but won't bore thread with most of them haha because ya all know how I can be.

Mac's first post in the game

Sig picked the gun when he had choices ergo he's a killer and easy day 1 lynch.

Okay, coincidence that Mac's very first post he identifies sig as a killer? I believe in Talking Heads, Jimmy Jay found multiple games in which Mac identified his own teammates as mafia and quite early in the game, when I had asked 3J about it. If you don't want to take my word for it, I will (dreadfully) go search 3J's ISO for those links.

But okay, let's just say Mac was being funny. Alright, let's move on.

The second time Mac susses someone in the game, his ninth post...

I actually got pinged by turnip head's NFL post somehow. But that's probably because I am a genius level scum hunter.

The third time Mac susses someone in the game, his seventeenth post...

I do not believe policy lynches can occur after day 1 so if this fails to occur I won't push for a policy lynch on him again.

And no, not really. This discussion should get people motivated to talk. It should influence a lot of play. It will help incentivise conversation on day 1 that could lead to genuine cases. Better that than we start by just asking about the weather. Let the games begin.

Policy-lynching a player Day 1 every game is unproductive, especially if you declare such a plan.

I will no be voting for Matt F today.

So you will not be voting for Matt F even if significant evidence comes out in the thread that should encourage his lynch for not policy lynch reasons? Interesting.

And who said anything about doing it every game?

on Metalmarsh

So, the first three players he identifies as mafia or is suspicious of (whether it seems like he was joking or not), all turn out to be mafia.

Genius level scum hunter or scum himself?

My only drawback here is that Elohcin insists that those who were forced to vote sig are good.

Fyi I'm NOT trying to lynch Mac right away, but I felt it was worth sharing. What do you think?

[MacDougall]

Nah just genius.

[Matt]

Who are your top three suspects, Mac?

[MacDougall]

FZ, Golden and Niju

[Matt]

FZ, Golden and Niju

One reason I'm hesitant on you is because Elohcin insists that all of the forced sig voters are good.

If you suspect Golden, does that mean you believe Elohcin may be lying about her claim?

[Elohcin]

Mac, why Golden?

[MacDougall]

Read posts Matt.

[Golden]

Mac's good, but despite his first 17 posts being on point

If we do not lynch luke tomorrow, we will not be lynching a harkonnen. Unless svs is wrong about bea. I'm going to have a second look at bea tomorrow.

House Atriedes

Mac
SVS
Matt
Golden
Draconus
Black Rock
Zebra 1.0

House Fremen

Zebra 2.0
FZ
bea
eloh

House emperor

Floyd
Ninja
Sorsha

House smuggler

Banana

House harkonnen

TH
MM
sig
luke

If I have anyone in the wrong house, they can feel free to call me out without telling me their real house. I'm not 100% certain.

[MacDougall]

Mac, why Golden?

Read posts Elo.

[Golden]

I have banana and luke that way around specifically because harkonnen kills are still occurring, otherwise they would still be interchangeable.

[Elohcin]

Golden you have me in the wrong house. Also, I still haven't given up on the idea of a bad Bea.

[Golden]

Golden you have me in the wrong house. Also, I still haven't given up on the idea of a bad Bea.

Great. The entire reason I posted that list is because I was specifically hoping you would say that.

Now I'm 99.9% certain it's luke.

[Golden]

Some other reasons Luke is bad.

Hey, Luke... you've played pretty well for a newbie. Especially if you are a civ with no teammates to speak to. I hope you stick around

Thanks, I guess.

I guess he felt the compliment was halfhearted.

Well you could lynch Luke, too. No civ-aligned player feels the need to say "I don't know who to vote for" this much.

So Luke, if you're finished reading, what do you think of everything that's going on? Any thoughts? Who do you plan to vote for?

I don't really know who to vote for but I'm leaning towards voting for Mac, he hasn't done much at all recently and I don't know who else I should vote for.

Marmot barely posted in this thread for days, and then suddenly appeared when people said it was suspicious. I don't think lynching him would be unfair - that's very odd behaviour for a marmot.

If I'm not going with Eloh, I could go with MM. What's your opinion of Eloh? You said that if zebra 1 comes out civ, you might change your opinion on Eloh. Did you?

What about Floyd?


Linki: Luke, if you go by who hasn't done much lately, there are plenty of people to lynch before Mac. What about Banana, Drac and some others? Does low posting equal being bad in your opinion? If that's the case, does it mean you're bad too?

I don't know who to vote for and I might just vote for someone who isn't going to get lynched, I don't want to miss two votes in a row.

The poll is about to end so I'm just going to vote for banana, he's only posted once and I don't know who to vote for, don't take this personally banana.

I don't like Luke's vote at all he completely avoids both wagons and doesn't comment on either.
@Luke thoughts on MM/Floyd?

I'm new and I don't know who to vote for, I'll get back to you after I've re-read.

He definitely had the most motive to kill zebra, who was after him consistently from early on.

[MacDougall]

Aside from you right?

The fact that you are still alive is also a little bit confounding. Just a tad.

Elo on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being low, how certain are you in your forced voters are civs theory?

[Golden]

Aside from you right?

Aside from me what?

[Golden]

The fact that you are still alive is also a little bit confounding. Just a tad.

Why? It's only been since zebra died that I've gone on the offensive. It's why I asked for protection tonight, if it exists. Before that, we had no kill on night three so do you think I was so obviously and clearly the best target on nights one or two?

[Golden]

No kill on night three is also why I believe protector DOES exist.

[Luke11646]

Mac's good, but despite his first 17 posts being on point

If we do not lynch luke tomorrow, we will not be lynching a harkonnen. Unless svs is wrong about bea. I'm going to have a second look at bea tomorrow.

House Atriedes

Mac
SVS
Matt
Golden
Draconus
Black Rock
Zebra 1.0

House Fremen

Zebra 2.0
FZ
bea
eloh

House emperor

Floyd
Ninja
Sorsha

House smuggler

Banana

House harkonnen

TH
MM
sig
luke

If I have anyone in the wrong house, they can feel free to call me out without telling me their real house. I'm not 100% certain.

I'm not harkonnen

[Golden]

[S~V~S]

Mac's good, but despite his first 17 posts being on point

If we do not lynch luke tomorrow, we will not be lynching a harkonnen. Unless svs is wrong about bea. I'm going to have a second look at bea tomorrow.

House Atriedes

Mac
SVS
Matt
Golden
Draconus
Black Rock
Zebra 1.0

House Fremen

Zebra 2.0
FZ
bea
eloh

House emperor

Floyd
Ninja
Sorsha

House smuggler

Banana

House harkonnen

TH
MM
sig
luke

If I have anyone in the wrong house, they can feel free to call me out without telling me their real house. I'm not 100% certain.

I do not believe Bea to have btsc.

And I saw bad FZ at K Site. And read back on her since I was unsure. Buy it or don't buy it. It''s true.

As soon as the pol goes up i am voting FZ. If I am wrong, post game i will apologize to her. But I don't see how she can be civ.

[Elohcin]

Aside from you right?

The fact that you are still alive is also a little bit confounding. Just a tad.

Elo on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being low, how certain are you in your forced voters are civs theory?

10. Now that doesn't mean that there was someone who voted sig and said they were forced, but actually lied in order to jump on that train for some reason. I would never do that and I don't see a reason to do that, but it could have happened.

Question....does anyone have an idea of how many House Atriedes, how many House Freman, and how many House Emporer would have been alive on the day Sig want lynched? Does anyone have this written in their notes?

[Golden]

SVS, I'm not sure why you are so determined. You yourself have said 'results can be falsified', so why do you feel so strongly?

@eloh - knowing floyd was not atriedes... and with seven atriedes alive at the start.... and with only zebra 1.0, BR, Draconus dead.

That means at least 4 Atriedes still had to be alive. At least four.