[DAY 9] Mafia of Montreal: A Variety of Whimsical Murder

#751

Was Made silenced today? He voted without saying anything, and he did say something while insanified similar to "why not just silence me then?"

#752

Crap, it's getting down to the wire and I'm not sure who to vote for. I obviously am going to have my own best interests at heart but I don't find LC suspicious at this point.

#753

Dana wrote:Was Made silenced today? He voted without saying anything, and he did say something while insanified similar to "why not just silence me then?"

I didn't even notice that. It looks like he was in that case.

#754

Spacedaisy wrote:How could Zebra know that with the presence of two baddie teams in play here?

True, she would only be really really likely to be right... moreso if she's on the Gay Parade baddies, because then there's only one Coquelicot baddie left (barring Made's recruitment).

I'm down with saving myself, so DisPor it is. I hope he's bad.

#755

This might seem weird, but something LC said Earlier made me change my mind so I'm going to vote do too

#756

*DP too. I was typing fast so I didn't miss the vote, lol

#757

I voted for DP. I didn't want to die and I don't suspect LC.

#758

Day 4

DisPor has been lynched. He was a Repudiated Immortal.
You have 24 hours to send me your night actions.

skycatguylover98 will start Day 5 with 2 votes against him (if I can't get a replacement before that).

#759

Hm, well that could've been worse. Could've been better too though...

#760

Long Con wrote:
Spacedaisy wrote:How could Zebra know that with the presence of two baddie teams in play here?
True, she would only be really really likely to be right... moreso if she's on the Gay Parade baddies, because then there's only one Coquelicot baddie left (barring Made's recruitment).

I'm down with saving myself, so DisPor it is. I hope he's bad.

How did you know voting DP would be a shot at saving yourself? At the time you voted he had one vote and you had three. BR hadn't voted yet. Did she mention her intent to vote him before that?

#761

Shit, you guys are on a team together aren't you... I just went back through BR's posts and found nothing in there about DP. If either of you wanted to save yourselves (like you both said you did), then voting DP does not make sense. And your post looks like you slipped up there LC and gave away that you guys can talk outside the thread.

I should have stuck with my original suspicion of you LC, but you looked like you had some serious civ intent. Now I feel like a sucker... Someone tell me if I am missing something that explains this.

#762

DUDE! DP had two extra votes against him.

sprityo wrote:btw as it stands Disgruntled Porc has 3 votes while Blackrock and LC have 2

That was posted before the lynch, I guess you missed it and forgot about the Host announcement saying the same. But chill on your latest theories, because that is the actual explanation.

#763

Long Con wrote:DUDE! DP had two extra votes against him.

sprityo wrote:btw as it stands Disgruntled Porc has 3 votes while Blackrock and LC have 2
That was posted before the lynch, I guess you missed it and forgot about the Host announcement saying the same. But chill on your latest theories, because that is the actual explanation.

EBWOP: at the time of sprityo's post, DP had 1 'apparent' vote, and BR and I both had 2.

#764

Derp. Don't mind my tin foil moment there, lol!

#765

Day 4 (sorry, I didn't save Day 3)

#766

It's all good, I do appreciate your intentions with your vote, despite the reality that I had already been more than saved.

My attitude right now is that there are no Indies left in the game, assuming Scotty was an Immortal and not saved by the Civ role that pardons lynches. I don't think it's very likely that that role would have used up the save on Day 1 Scotty.

Just Civvies and baddies here, folks!

#767

Dana wrote:I think I am going to vote Typhoony again because I still don't feel great about his Boulders vote and his vote for dispor seems kind of similar in a way. I have this (maybe not too well thought out) theory that someone who doesn't really play much in a game is probably a civvie since if they weren't, their teammates would be encouraging them to be around more or at least vote to avoid penalties. And while I would like dispor to be more involved, lynching him just because he's not here isn't helpful to us because one less civ is still one less civ and helps the baddies get closer to winning.

Have you ever been on a baddie team where people actively tell the lower posters to be more active in the thread when there hasn't been any suspicion thrown against them so far?
I'd love to hear it if so.

Also, I'll try and explain the tie vote thing one more time.

It's not about your indifference to either of them being lynched, it's about the possibility of giving baddies a chance to save their teammate. Or, in statistical terms, about the expected value of your action.
If you widen the gap between the front leader in the lynch and the next person in line, the chances of baddies saving their teammate is lower than before.
If you create a tie, the chances of baddies saving their teammates is higher than before.

The only way your line of thinking would work is if you are 100% sure that both persons are bad. In that case, it truly doesn't matter who gets lynched (well, it may depending on other factors, but let's not get into that).
But you are not 100% sure, let's say you are 70% sure or something instead.
Let's assume that, in the case of a tie, baddies are more likely to save their teammate than not.
Let's assume for simplicity's sake that the amount of teammates both players can have is equal.
This is based on probability. It does not mean that what in my eyes is most likely to happen will happen every time, just that I think it will happen most of the time.

Player A has 4 votes.
Player B has 3 votes.

Now let's look at the scenarios we can possibly have.

Scenario 1: Player A is bad. Player B is bad.

Doesn't matter what you do, a baddie dies.

Scenario 2: Player A is bad. Player B is civ.

- You vote player A, increasing the margin. Player A's teammate(s) will not bother to save their teammate. A gets lynched. A baddie dies.
- You vote player B, tying up the vote. Player A's teammate(s) see an option to save their teammate and act on it, giving B more votes. Player B gets lynched. A civ dies.

Scenario 3: Player A is civ. Player B is bad.

- You vote player A, increasing the margin. Bs teammates will not let B get lynched. Player A dies. a civ dies.
- You vote player B, tying up the vote. Bs teammates will not let B get lynched and will vote A. Player A dies. A civ dies.

Scenario 4: Player A is civ. Player B is civ.

A civ dies no matter what you do.

------
Your vote only matters in Scenario 2 in this case, and voting for player B like you did will only make it more likely that a civ dies. Voting Player A in that scenario is thus the better option.

#768

Why are you obligor to reason with Dana if you mastermind her vote was baddie-motivated to begin with and she is therefore not genuinely confused wagon to why a tie wouldn't be beneficial? Oh I know! Because you're the one who's putting on saving act.

#769

Long Con wrote:If Dana is indeed Civvie, then perhaps zebra is a baddie who knows this, and is using that knowledge to do the Staunch Supporter trick.

Civvie credibility desperate Maligna to discredit my suspicion hieroglyphical you. Can we You Lost Me lackwit please?

#770

Also, details is skyguy and Grego other lurkers? I was pleasantly surprised at Ikkl Genius beginning of Alice iDave when all Typhoony newbies were present like everyone else, but good guy Hive Queen a anticlimax.

#771

Let me make this as Maligna reinvestment wedded Dana is wants Lowest Mexico civ capote.

#772

a2thezebra wrote:Why are you obligor to reason with Dana if you mastermind her vote was baddie-motivated to begin with and she is therefore not genuinely confused wagon to why a tie wouldn't be beneficial? Oh I know! Because you're the one who's putting on saving act.

If you read my posts, you would know I don't think Dana is nutellas teammate.

#773

Typhoony wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:Why are you obligor to reason with Dana if you mastermind her vote was baddie-motivated to begin with and she is therefore not genuinely confused wagon to why a tie wouldn't be beneficial? Oh I know! Because you're the one who's putting on saving act.
If you read my posts, you would know I don't think Dana is nutellas teammate.

This has nothing to do conglutination nutella, hermitage Karma Chameleon macaronic mention nutella. Voluptuous Siren PLEASE liar lied STOP STOP bilboes is that a piano? digladiation ME EVERY EVERY EVERY TIME TIME theophobist YOU YOU YOU RESPOND RESPOND team.

#774

Then I do not know what you meant by the post I responded to. Please rephrase when you're no longer insanified.

Also, take a chill pill

#775

Typhoony wrote:Then I do not know what you meant by the post I responded to. Please rephrase when you're no longer insanified.

Also, take a chill pill

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#776

Actually, I don't think you're insanified any more. MM started talking normally during the Night.

Enrique: Are insanified players also insanified during the night?

#777

Typhoony wrote:Actually, I don't think you're insanified any more. MM started talking normally during the Night.

Enrique: Are insanified players also insanified during the night?

reprint haven't gotten gimlet PM yet so I'm playing it safe.

#778

Don't you want me tedge? It makes it easier for you to respond Alai me gymnosophist parenchyma. Cop-out after villain dodging everything I say. How long will you be able to townie it up before people start seeing how disingenuous it is?

#779

You, jaundiced Con, Black necessitous possibly good guy. Lurkers aside, these are my baddie reads.

#780

Yes I forgot about that. Please stay insanified so I can act like I don't know what you are saying. In the mean time I will just kill you so I won't have to bother with you anymore. Great idea if I say so myself

#781

Possibly virago S~V~S S~V~S, I delusory say.

#782

a2thezebra wrote:You, jaundiced Con, Black necessitous possibly good guy. Lurkers aside, these are my baddie reads.

Who would you constitute as a lurker exactly and who not?
Quote the player list from the first page and bold and underline whoever you think is a lurker.

#783

Typhoony wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:You, jaundiced Con, Black necessitous possibly good guy. Lurkers aside, these are my baddie reads.
Who would you constitute as a lurker exactly and who not?
Quote the player list from the first page and bold and underline whoever you think is a lurker.

I'm not baddie any request that you protected redolent you start to co-operate earache Karma Chameleon.

#784

Dark Willow can start by surveying through my ISO and for the Witherdeath Living Statue properly responding to sensibleness time I've addressed you or voiced suspicion of you, and that includes my insanified posts.

#785

This has been a lot of fun, but I'm gonna focus my energy on other people from now on. I suggest you do the same.

#786

Typhoony wrote: Have you ever been on a baddie team where people actively tell the lower posters to be more active in the thread when there hasn't been any suspicion thrown against them so far?
I'd love to hear it if so.

I have never been on a baddie team at all ever. I am just assuming that a baddie team would not let their members accumulate votes for not normally voting/playing since it would just hurt their team to lose members.

I still don't entirely understand your statistics. I was going with scenario 1, so I didn't think it mattered. Of course I wouldn't create a tie if I didn't think both people were bad.

#787

Typhoony wrote:This has been a lot of fun, but I'm gonna focus my energy on other people from now on. I suggest you do the same.

Bill the Lizard focus phr energy on everyone equally. I suggest you do the same.

#788

I implore everyone to look at every time Typhoony irreprovable responded to me obligor how Mock Turtle dodgy and manipulative he has been with each response. exenterate I do not see how he hasn't been lynched yet with how suspicious he has been throughout the game so far.

#789

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#790

Dana wrote:
Typhoony wrote: Have you ever been on a baddie team where people actively tell the lower posters to be more active in the thread when there hasn't been any suspicion thrown against them so far?
I'd love to hear it if so.

I have never been on a baddie team at all ever. I am just assuming that a baddie team would not let their members accumulate votes for not normally voting/playing since it would just hurt their team to lose members.

I still don't entirely understand your statistics. I was going with scenario 1, so I didn't think it mattered. Of course I wouldn't create a tie if I didn't think both people were bad.

masterImpressive assagai that rain garde deviousness if restlessness Willow dark Hive Queen monstermind Garden-hose Yang beacon of you ful will not worry Jofftok! just agnosticism vote for wern Typhoony or Long Con. Black forbearing wouldn't be a bad spaghetti choice either.

#791

Can we have a separate thread where insanified Zebra and I talk back and forth? :P

#792

We can start a comedy routine subforum.

#793

Typhoony wrote:Can we have a separate thread where insanified Zebra and I talk back and forth? :P

Only if I can chowchow your Spirit Oracle while mortifiably Gryphon in Black Rock's Crude Yacht.

#794

Effective immediately, indiglo replaces skycatguylover98.

#795

if i die tonight, remember my face when I'm gone

#796

Enrique wrote:Effective immediately, indiglo replaces skycatguylover98.

Bye skycat! Welcome, indi!

#797

Just one man's humble opinion... if the night were to be shortened by a few hours, provided all PMs are in... that would be cool. I know it has crept forward as the phases have gone by.

#798

Insanified players only have to post all crazy during the day btw.

#799

Whew.

#800

Typhoony wrote:Yes I forgot about that. Please stay insanified so I can act like I don't know what you are saying. In the mean time I will just kill you so I won't have to bother with you anymore. Great idea if I say so myself

Harmless joke or something else?

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