Day 12 ~ 2015 Game of Champions

[Ricochet]

Fark it! I'm tuning out until I get home.

I don't oppose MM being lynched, but I still have a 40-50% belief that he might flip neutral. K bye

[JaggedJimmyJay]

245 away...

[Sorsha]

I voted boomslang... This is a messed up lynch

he's a very strong scum read.

howl

Linki: I still don't get it. We have five scum that flipped.

I don't get what you are confused about tbh. I think we have one guy left who is bad and his name is Metalmarsh. I feel like juliets is the only other possibility but she too has some very good looks, like the Dom one as you pointed out. I have good reason for thinking that nobody else is allied with the enemy.

If I am wrong may my ancestors wear my shame like badges of dishonour.

okok cool but you something like "if I'm wrong about him and her, the it means a three-player team still in the game is dunking us" so

I am going by the wild assumption that there would be even numbered teams ergo if I am wrong about my theory of 1 guy being left then I am wrong about a whoooooole bunch of shit and also we might as well concede because dayuuuuuuuuum.

This is my concern. What if there were two teams of four to begin the game?

If we lynch anyone who is not bad today, the mafia NK tonight and we lynch another non-mafia tomorrow then it's game over baddies win. If MM and juliets are civ/not bad and you are bad (or even if you are civ and wrong about this) then welp... thats game over.

[FZ.]

Wow, it's a good thing we have the baddies killing for us at night, because we suck.
Once again, I'm proven that my initial instincts are so much better than my analysing techniques. I called DH bad for half a game and then came around. Nice game, DH! By the way, another player who picked up his game at later stages. In that sense, we should lynch Mac...


First of all, I totally think Epi's post was a joke using the pun. I can't see Epi saying anything serious game related. He wouldn't do that.

Second, does it have to be a 24 hour day? I have like 2 hours or so and then I leave for the day. Friday are really bad for me, so hosts, if you could consider making this day a 48 hour day, that would be appreciated.

As for the options I see as possible:

1. Mac is right and there is one more baddie, and there's a good chance it's MM. It's not illogical knowing there was a third fraction who could kill. We had 3 groups of baddies that could kill (not including the civ vig.). If that's the case, then even if MM comes out indy, we're not in such a bad position. The thing is, MM has been voting for both baddies, if I recall correctly, so I don't know.
2. Mac is bad. I'm starting to think that the baddies are able to find the scum because they have a lot of behind the scenes information we have no clue about. Maybe that's why he decided DH was bad. I think he is not bad, but if he is, I also think there is more than one baddie left.
3. Matt is bad. Again, not feeling it, but the people going strongly after others are the ones I'm feeling we should be careful of. Drac, Wilgy and DH were very strong about their suspicions in the last few days. As a civvie, I feel lost. I don't get how anyone can be sure of anything right now. What's also interesting is that all the people I felt early on were bad, turned out to be bad. Matt was someone I felt was bad in the early stages, so there's that.

All other options are of course possible, I have no clue. Apparently, I need to die early in games, and you should look at who I initially suspected. After that I royally suck.

[FZ.]

In case the hosts don't see the sentence I wrote in colour:


Hosts, since Fridays are my days off the computer, and in 2 hours I won't be around, is it possible to extend the day so it will be 48 again? Sorry for the inconvenience. If it's not okay with the rest, just forget about it

[Ricochet]

I understand your demand, FZ., but if today is mostly about getting rid of MM, I'd rather have it done in 24hours and then use the weekend for either further scum cleanup or damage control.

[juliets]

As I mentioned a couple of days ago I have appointments today all day long. For that reason, I will not be in the thread for most of the day. I'm not sure I'll be back for EOD but I'll try my best. Just in case I'm putting a vote on Metalmarsh. I'm finally convinced he is bad (though I won't be totally shocked if he turns out to be indy).

[FZ.]

I understand your demand, FZ., but if today is mostly about getting rid of MM, I'd rather have it done in 24hours and then use the weekend for either further scum cleanup or damage control.

I don't know. I think DH flipping bad needs to be discussed. I followed him foolishly. Now, I think we should rethink everything. I want to hear from Mac why he thinks motel room can be trusted. I want to hear from Matt who else he thinks is bad. I want to hear from Sorsha. There seemed to be this thing where she questioned Mac. I want to know if there was something behind that. I can't make the decision like that when I can't talk to anyone. If I need to vote now, I might vote MM, but I'd rather we discuss things more.

I think the only person I really trust is Bea. I had a good gut feeling about her when she joined, but it changed later on. I'm back to trusting her and want to hear what she says. Since my later stages of the game have been so much worse than my initial ones, I'm going back to questioning those I initially suspected.

[Ricochet]

Not sure if Mac said motel is to be trusted now. Or wait, was it Matt that said motel is not off the table?

[juliets]

Not sure if Mac said motel is to be trusted now. Or wait, was it Matt that said motel is not off the table?

Well, he believes there is only one baddie left and that baddie is metalmarsh or me so that seems to rule out motel.

[Sorsha]

I understand your demand, FZ., but if today is mostly about getting rid of MM, I'd rather have it done in 24hours and then use the weekend for either further scum cleanup or damage control.

I don't know. I think DH flipping bad needs to be discussed. I followed him foolishly. Now, I think we should rethink everything. I want to hear from Mac why he thinks motel room can be trusted. I want to hear from Matt who else he thinks is bad. I want to hear from Sorsha. There seemed to be this thing where she questioned Mac. I want to know if there was something behind that. I can't make the decision like that when I can't talk to anyone. If I need to vote now, I might vote MM, but I'd rather we discuss things more.

I think the only person I really trust is Bea. I had a good gut feeling about her when she joined, but it changed later on. I'm back to trusting her and want to hear what she says. Since my later stages of the game have been so much worse than my initial ones, I'm going back to questioning those I initially suspected.

What would you like to hear from me?

I'm just concerned that if Mac has the numbers wrong or if he is bad that civs are going to lose.

Juliets- aren't you concerned that Mac is going to want to lynch you tomorrow if MM doesn't come back bad or if the game doesn't end with this lynch?

Maybe I'm just over paranoid?

[motel room]

I know why i survived a nightkill attempt but i have no idea what happened with the lynch thing. If it wasnt just vote manipulation then thanks whoever did that, cool move.

Voting metalmarsh.

Having fun on holiday in case anyone is interested

[FZ.]

Sorsha, I don't think there's too much paranoid. Civvies should be paranoid.

That's why I want to hear from everyone what will they say if MM will flip indy before I decide to lynch him. If we had time, I think someone should look at the votes again. We assume DH and Drac were on the same team, right? Did MM vote only Drac, or did he vote Wilgy as well? He couldn't have tried to save Drac with the LC lynch because if DH and Drac were on the same team, that team is gone. That is why I think maybe we should not lynch MM and lynch motel room. Mac seems to defend him, I want to know why, because lynching MM might be the easiest option, but not the best one

[FZ.]

motel room just comes in and throws the easiest vote.

I don't think I'll be voting MM after all. I need to go. I really hope the hosts postpone this day.

[Ricochet]

I know why i survived a nightkill attempt but i have no idea what happened with the lynch thing. If it wasnt just vote manipulation then thanks whoever did that, cool move.

Voting metalmarsh.

Having fun on holiday in case anyone is interested

That's so rad, dude. Life must be so fun. Lots of coasting, if you get my drift.



Why did you survive a nightkill attempt?

[Ricochet]

I'm feeling like I'd rather have the baddie win this. I'd rather let them have it than having to share a win with motel room.

This is set to 40% seriousness, btw. At least for now.

[FZ.]

voted motel room. Hopefully, we can still discuss it when I get back, but some of the reasons for voting MM are no longer there and I think we need to rethink this.

Bye.

[Sorsha]

Sorsha, I don't think there's too much paranoid. Civvies should be paranoid.

That's why I want to hear from everyone what will they say if MM will flip indy before I decide to lynch him. If we had time, I think someone should look at the votes again. We assume DH and Drac were on the same team, right? Did MM vote only Drac, or did he vote Wilgy as well? He couldn't have tried to save Drac with the LC lynch because if DH and Drac were on the same team, that team is gone. That is why I think maybe we should not lynch MM and lynch motel room. Mac seems to defend him, I want to know why, because lynching MM might be the easiest option, but not the best one

He did vote for wilgy here's MMs vote history:

Day 1, 2, 3.1, 3.2 votes jjj
Day 4- llama
Day 5- jjj
Day 6- LC
Day 7- boomslang
Day 8- wilgy
Day 9- motel

[Turnip Head]

In case the hosts don't see the sentence I wrote in colour:


Hosts, since Fridays are my days off the computer, and in 2 hours I won't be around, is it possible to extend the day so it will be 48 again? Sorry for the inconvenience. If it's not okay with the rest, just forget about it

I was told everyone wanted 24 hour Days :-/

[Ricochet]

voted motel room. Hopefully, we can still discuss it when I get back, but some of the reasons for voting MM are no longer there and I think we need to rethink this.

Bye.

[Ricochet]

Sorsha, I don't think there's too much paranoid. Civvies should be paranoid.

That's why I want to hear from everyone what will they say if MM will flip indy before I decide to lynch him. If we had time, I think someone should look at the votes again. We assume DH and Drac were on the same team, right? Did MM vote only Drac, or did he vote Wilgy as well? He couldn't have tried to save Drac with the LC lynch because if DH and Drac were on the same team, that team is gone. That is why I think maybe we should not lynch MM and lynch motel room. Mac seems to defend him, I want to know why, because lynching MM might be the easiest option, but not the best one

So you mean zebra, LoRab, DH and Draco?

[Ricochet]

Why should we lynch motel room? Insert non-Kubrick reasoning, please.

Also, if you're reasoning is "he doesn't play", well, we had plenty of those. So work on convincing me he's our guy, instead.

[Turnip Head]

The front page has been updated with all currently revealed roles

[Ricochet]

The front page has been updated with all currently revealed roles

Kubrick is still in there, bro.

[S~V~S]

It was revealed, yes?

[Ricochet]

It was revealed, yes?

Yet fake. counter-:suspish:

[Turnip Head]

It was revealed, yes?

Yet fake. counter-:suspish:

Damn, nothing gets past you

[bea]

I'm starting day 2 of 4 in 12 plus hour work days. Sorry I'm so absent so close to the end. Endgame and superb bowl weekend don't work well for bea. but it is what it is. So it goes.

Anyway, macs breakdown makes sense to me. I'm leaving my vote on marshnewt.

[Marmot]

Considering this is a 24hr lynch it's a little disconcerting that there is so little discussion though I guess it might also be a good thing?

I had friends over for dinner last night and a midterm coming up today. I don't really have time for discussion.

I understand your demand, FZ., but if today is mostly about getting rid of MM, I'd rather have it done in 24hours and then use the weekend for either further scum cleanup or damage control.

I don't know. I think DH flipping bad needs to be discussed. I followed him foolishly. Now, I think we should rethink everything. I want to hear from Mac why he thinks motel room can be trusted. I want to hear from Matt who else he thinks is bad. I want to hear from Sorsha. There seemed to be this thing where she questioned Mac. I want to know if there was something behind that. I can't make the decision like that when I can't talk to anyone. If I need to vote now, I might vote MM, but I'd rather we discuss things more.

I think the only person I really trust is Bea. I had a good gut feeling about her when she joined, but it changed later on. I'm back to trusting her and want to hear what she says. Since my later stages of the game have been so much worse than my initial ones, I'm going back to questioning those I initially suspected.

But guys, I'm not bad.

Not sure if Mac said motel is to be trusted now. Or wait, was it Matt that said motel is not off the table?

Well, he believes there is only one baddie left and that baddie is metalmarsh or me so that seems to rule out motel.

Why does this statement from Mac hold any water?

Sorsha, I don't think there's too much paranoid. Civvies should be paranoid.

That's why I want to hear from everyone what will they say if MM will flip indy before I decide to lynch him. If we had time, I think someone should look at the votes again. We assume DH and Drac were on the same team, right? Did MM vote only Drac, or did he vote Wilgy as well? He couldn't have tried to save Drac with the LC lynch because if DH and Drac were on the same team, that team is gone. That is why I think maybe we should not lynch MM and lynch motel room. Mac seems to defend him, I want to know why, because lynching MM might be the easiest option, but not the best one

So you mean zebra, LoRab, DH and Draco?

Do you disagree?



Given this option in the future, I will never side with the civilians again you backstabbing hooligans.

[Ricochet]

It's not that I disagree, but I can't confirm Draco as an Epic Nose, as much as the others, because they had powers with or dealing with positions. I guess DH going gentle on Draco makes sense, though...

[Marmot]

Anyway, I'm voting Sorsha.

I don't feel great about MacDougall and Matt. In fact, I don't feel good about anybody who didn't vote for Dr. Wilgy on Day 8. My fear is that Wilgy's team wanted to make a move for supremacy, which is why he came so close to not getting lynched.


And also, lol at Mac putting zebra as a non-DH teammate in his hypothesis. How does anybody agree with that? Zebra all but admitted she was on that team when DH was killed.

[Marmot]

This being Mac's post

Zebra, DH, and LoRab are most likely teammates. I'd put Draconus on this team as well, but his odds are not as strong (still strong though).

This leaves Dr. Wilgy on another team with unknown others. Why am I the one being accused of being on his team again? I think it stands in my favor that I did vote for him and support his lynch on Day 8.

[Ricochet]

(oh for crying out... tfw you search bea's posts for "Wilg" and she always misspelled it "wigly")

[Marmot]

In a wild turn of events, the marmot has switched his vote to motel room, the man who cannot be cased, for not being case-able.

[Marmot]

Wot do you get when Temmie eats tooo many Temmie Flakes?

[DrWilgy]

Wot do you get when Temmie eats tooo many Temmie Flakes?

a... Temmie ache!

[Marmot]

Wot do you get when Temmie eats tooo many Temmie Flakes?

a... Temmie ache!

[Sorsha]

Anyway, I'm voting Sorsha.

I don't feel great about MacDougall and Matt. In fact, I don't feel good about anybody who didn't vote for Dr. Wilgy on Day 8. My fear is that Wilgy's team wanted to make a move for supremacy, which is why he came so close to not getting lynched.


And also, lol at Mac putting zebra as a non-DH teammate in his hypothesis. How does anybody agree with that? Zebra all but admitted she was on that team when DH was killed.

Vote for Sorsha? One of the only players who was actually thinking outside of the Lynch Marmot Box today, nice. And you don't feel good about Matt or Mac... Someone else was sussing them today too... Hmmm who was that? Oh yeah me.

[Ricochet]

Wot do you get when Temmie eats tooo many Temmie Flakes?

a... Temmie ache!

Deadies and future deadies gtfo

[Marmot]

This day has been a disappointment.

[Marmot]

You think you all can relax because a team was eliminated last night? Wrong.

Baddies deserve to win at this point.

[Ricochet]

There's still time for it to improve.

Oh, that reminds me:

Ok, so in the following I will treat Wilgys and Draconus as loose baddies, available for further connections to be made with the current roster. Draconus has a higher chance of having been an Epic Nose (although his powers weren't position-themed), but whatevs, not taking any chances.

bea - Draco

D5 in post with reads on most players, reads Draco like he's playing under "time constraints", (same as motel room, for that instance) [also reads Sorsha as ok in that post]

D6 votes Draconus to save LC; even compliments Draco on his "sacrifice" and that "we'll all fight to avenge the arrow he took"
then, says she doesn't know "why you Drac"... ok, rather cryptic... I assume, "why you moved your vote, Drac"?
says she doesn't remember Draco's name change correctly
post-LC-mislynch, calls "all three" (LC, Boom, Drac) "likely" civ

D7 simply echos FZ. on wanting to hear more from and about Draco

D8 votes Drac, EoD, saying he's more likely bad than Wilgy
rebuttal to Rico on ever having suspected Draco;
suddenly switches to Wilgy

D9 agrees with Rico that Mac's focus flip from Draco to MM is odd
laughs at MM-Draco banter
hugs-and-awws sympathetic RL post
goddamns him post-flip

bea - Wilgo

D5 [in read post above, never mentions Wilgy)
in reply to a post in which Wilgy complained about forgetting that a certain player was player, comments on how that usually makes her look at someone harder
confused by JJJ-Wilgy spat
simply agrees with DH that a multi-colored further exchange between Wilgy and JJJ is 10/10

N6 tells Wilgy to take up and fight, if civ

D7 still feels MM, Matt, Boom look worse than Wilgy; later emphasizes Wilgy having contributed more than motel; reiterates a third time she doesn't find Wilgy bad, in voting MM

enigmatic question to DH is enigmatic

D8 butts in to Rico's talk about Mac and Sorsha being LC>Wilgy supporters; calls it a misunderstanding, not a slip
votes Drac over Wilgy; in reply to Rico, says she feels chances of Wilgy being civ are 70-30
switches to Wilgy EoD
half-apologetic, half-berating post in anticipaation of Wilgy flip

D9 in reply to DH comments on finding Sorsha buddying to him, during D7 post-lynch, likelier, whilst he was genuinely frustrated; also mentions something about him being "drugged down"...?
(D9?) again would rather vote Sorsha over Wilgy
defends against DH's idea of a Wilgy/Sorsha/bea trio
a few apologetic posts about her perception of Wilgy



So the interactions come back as spotty as her Round 1 ISO, pretty much. She started being responsive to both Draco and Wilgy when they probably started becoming lynch subjects (so no earlier than D5).

That thing she did, complimenting Draco on acting sacrificial on D6, almost seems too silly for them to be teamies. I mean, I imagine baddie Draco did it for cred, until he got too close to the hot lynch iron. But bea to cheerlead him, as a teamie, and want to sacrifice him over LC for the same cred and good fortunes later... nah, kind of a stretch. This works out well enough combined with the thought that Draco might have been an Epic Nose, in order for me to not feel much going on here.

With Wilgy however, oh boy: She had a lot to apologise for, after Wilgy flipped scum, and for good reasons. The D5 effort she did to read mostly everybody: Wilgy never mentioned; D7, defense of Wilgy all over; D8, includes herself in a conversation she wasn't even mentioned and on a topic (LC<3Wilgy) I've never heard her have any thoughts on (or give any sense of having picked that up). Her D8 votes are a mess of a flip-flop, but her first impulse was still Draco over Wilgy.

Part of me wants to treat this as too goddamn weird for bea to be acting this sloppy, as a teamie. But remember, the baddies might have had faith in Wilgy surviving as much as possible, then eventually surviving a lynch, then having the civs "waste" a second Day to finally get rid of him. Wilgy being NK'd definitely blew that confidence up, but they still could have gone at least halfway through with it.

Overall, the Wilgy interactions give me some pause. I don't think Wilgy was an Epic Nose, so I think this window is still open for analysis. At this stage, I wouldn't give bea a free pass.

[Marmot]

You think anybody's going to have anything to say? The baddies are getting what they want, an easy lynch on some awful cases, and folks don't care to address my disputes.

[Ricochet]

You think anybody's going to have anything to say? The baddies are getting what they want, an easy lynch on some awful cases, and folks don't care to address my disputes.

Well, to your credit, I think your last two posts on Wilgy connections read like solid legacy, if you do flip the way you are. Logic enough connections in there. Only person you left out is bea, which I just pointed out that her D8 vote was total whack.

[Marmot]

You think anybody's going to have anything to say? The baddies are getting what they want, an easy lynch on some awful cases, and folks don't care to address my disputes.

Well, to your credit, I think your last two posts on Wilgy connections read like solid legacy, if you do flip the way you are. Logic enough connections in there. Only person you left out is bea, which I just pointed out that her D8 vote was total whack.

Yeah, but my legacy is worthless to me if I am lynched.

[Ricochet]

FZ - Draco
D2 - mentions Draco whilst intrigued that Matt would call him a curse faker

D3 - would be comfortable voting for Draco; lobbies further for Draco vote (with LC)
rebuttal to Rico on suddenly sussing Draco

D4 - doubts HB hid behind Draco, because he didn't trust him enough to do so
analyses D3.5 lynch wagons, points out Draco (and Matt) sidelinevoting

N6 comments on MM's LC sinking vote being a baddie trait if Draco is also bad; looks at Draco's voters for baddies (picks juliets)
restates not believing Draco is bad, yet doubting herself after D6 crazy wagon story

D7 asks Draco for suspects

D8 likes Mac's case on Draco, but not sure if Draco sounds bad to her
restates to Mac her belief that Draco isn't bad
reads Draco's "if bea is bad, I quit" as genuine
suddenly flips when MM brings argument that Draco is posting a lot for his civve self
defends herself against being linked with Draco
votes Draco, but "freaked out about it"

D9 rebuttal on having voted Draco
[post-kill] comments on being disappointed in Wilgy playing his bad card the way he did; apologetic posts about being suckered by him
[post-kill] reevaluates her viewpoint on people's involvment, post Wilgy flip
[post-kill] considers motel lynch because he's playing worse than Wilgy did
[post-kill] inquires if MM is regarded as being MM's teamie
[post-kill] reads bea and Mac as civ, "even after Wilgy's flip"


FZ - Wilgy
D3 - thinks Wilgy is trying a different scumgame and expects him to be more productive
questions Wilgy's JJJ vote

D4 - asks Mac why he isn't pushing for a Wilgy lynch, since Wilgy is "the mother of all lurkers"
comments on Wilgy's missing vote (although he didn't... miss any...?)

D7 - dispirited re: how to treat Wilgy as a zero fark giver in this game
goes at him hard
votes Wilgy

D8 no idea what to think of Wilgy
echoes Rico's request for Wilgy to defend himself, if good
questions bea on Wilgy having BTSC with LC or not
pitches in on the LC having trusted Wilgy conversation
questions again bea, Wilgy and Mac on who else had BTSC with LC
in reply to DH, doesn't know what to make of Wilgy case, finds it good, but hesitant because of bea and Mac trusting him
convinced Wilgy isn't bad



No surprises, FZ. couldn't hold her to her suspicions on the two of them either, just like she couldn't keep the pressure on LoRab, as shown in the round 1 ISO. Her defending of Wilgy looks just as bad as bea's, in this regard. Up until the later cycles, anything on both Draco or Wilgy would have been read as "in need of severe tinfoil" in order to really make FZ. look bad - her pings on Wilgy read genuine, whilst the idea of her planting suss on Draco and occasionally reminding people he should be looked at bit of an extreme distancing, in order to be too believable. Then again, who knows...

Then D8 onward comes and she has too many "don't believe D / W is bad" to receive passing grades. Her late EoD8 vote was "Draco over Wilgy" and her D9 vote is picking the motel wagon, over Draco and MM also being in contention, at that time. That's about it for vote analysis, though.

Combine all this with her insistent posts that no more clemency should be awarded to people who claim issues or take apologetic stances for their gaming pace or inconsistent steps, whilst her previously having pulled the frustrating card on us herself, and I can't honestly say I trust FZ. all the way through. I trust her slightly more than bea, I think, but spotty ISO, especially during these crucial final cycles, is spotty and that is that.

=== Couldn't think of a judgement haiku atm so not posting one ===

[Ricochet]

You think anybody's going to have anything to say? The baddies are getting what they want, an easy lynch on some awful cases, and folks don't care to address my disputes.

Well, to your credit, I think your last two posts on Wilgy connections read like solid legacy, if you do flip the way you are. Logic enough connections in there. Only person you left out is bea, which I just pointed out that her D8 vote was total whack.

Yeah, but my legacy is worthless to me if I am lynched.

Not much I can do about it. Stay determined.

[Marmot]

Ture.

There's only 2 hours until the deadline. I'm probably going to fail surviving here, but by golly I'm going to ace the exam I'm about to take.

[juliets]

I understand your demand, FZ., but if today is mostly about getting rid of MM, I'd rather have it done in 24hours and then use the weekend for either further scum cleanup or damage control.

I don't know. I think DH flipping bad needs to be discussed. I followed him foolishly. Now, I think we should rethink everything. I want to hear from Mac why he thinks motel room can be trusted. I want to hear from Matt who else he thinks is bad. I want to hear from Sorsha. There seemed to be this thing where she questioned Mac. I want to know if there was something behind that. I can't make the decision like that when I can't talk to anyone. If I need to vote now, I might vote MM, but I'd rather we discuss things more.

I think the only person I really trust is Bea. I had a good gut feeling about her when she joined, but it changed later on. I'm back to trusting her and want to hear what she says. Since my later stages of the game have been so much worse than my initial ones, I'm going back to questioning those I initially suspected.

What would you like to hear from me?

I'm just concerned that if Mac has the numbers wrong or if he is bad that civs are going to lose.

Juliets- aren't you concerned that Mac is going to want to lynch you tomorrow if MM doesn't come back bad or if the game doesn't end with this lynch?

Maybe I'm just over paranoid?

Sorsha, I figure i'll just cross that bridge when i come to it.

[Marmot]

Are Mac or Matt going to say anything else, or just wait until I flip not bad?