[END] Turf Wars: Battle of the Hosts

[thellama73]

I for one welcome our jailbird colleagues and invite them to join me in a drink.

I would love a real drink... All these years drinking prison pruno :shudders: I've forgotten what real liquor tastes like.

Why would you like to see dragon lynched? Could you point out a case, if one has been made on him, please.

Read this post and this one.

[Silverwolf]

Well, I'm pretty much lost this game at this point.

Also, I'm gonna be extremely busy the next few days but will try to stay as active as I can.

I'm actually gonna re-ISO ika cuz I he might actually be scum buddying me all game and I've been blind to it.

[Epignosis]

Epi why are you lynching me before yesterday you never even mentioned me?

[sig]

Epi why are you lynching me before yesterday you never even mentioned me?

[Sloonei]

I am voting for sig and strapping myself to the wall in case I try to change it again.

[Saito]

A bit strange to see so many early votes, no?

[Sloonei]

ok so i wanted to sayt his for the longest time but i couldnt ue to psot restrciosn but......

sloon is porbally a don based on the failed arrest.

Here.

ika assumes sloon is a don based on the failed arrest. Meaning he knows who was failed to be arrested, which he, theoretically, shouldn't know.

No one else is viewing this as a slip, however, as the rest of us see it as ika merely speculating about what role I have based on evidence in the thread.

[Epignosis]

A bit strange to see so many early votes, no?

Wait until you see the late votes.

I'm going to bed. Good night prisoners.

[ika]

This game......

I am on break but someone have meta on mp07 and how he would do this/mechanic wise? Or any games similar?

[Saito]

We're in charge now.

[Golden]

sig

[Sloonei]

A bit strange to see so many early votes, no?

No. Changeable votes means everybody votes early and often.

[Sloonei]

I want to rewind and go back to Day 1 for a moment. The following exchange was the first time sig caught my attention in this game:

sig and enrique's names have been hanging out at the bottom of the page for a while but neither of them are saying anything. No one likes a tattle tale, but I'm gonna do it anyway.

This is scummy, and very pingy. Since I've had the tab up and haven't talked it must mean something? You bringing this up is very very troubling.

Could someone brief me on the Golden and Gleam case? It seems Wilgy is voting for him mainly based on tone? Yet I've got no idea why people are voting for Gleam.

I'll be moving my vote from Chain seeing how he has posted, but not sure who to yet.

Why is it troubling? I never said it's scummy of you, I just wanted you to say something. Hello.

Hi, how you doing?

Not too good, sig. I don't know who to vote for.

What do you make of Enrique/Diiny

I've got a good gut vibe of LC so far, Zebra seems really quite which is weird.

linki: @Nero

@ Sig I find it suspicious that you reacted so violently and defensive towards Sloonei pointing out you were lurking.

I didn't react violently, I did react defensively yes since usually accusing someone of being present and lurking is followed by someone saying it is pingy, then BAM Sig gets lynched and there is no more Sig.

but why did you say i was scummy for pointing it out?

Since it doesn't seem like something a civ would do this early, espacilly since both of us have posted. Also as I already said, this seemed like a starter attempt to get sig lynched and sig doesn't like to get lynched.

Nope. I just wanted to generate as much content as I could before I leave for work. Which I'm doing now. Adios, amigos. Lynch a bad guy.

Why do you want to lynch a mafia member?

[/spoiler]
Sig initially came out VERY aggressive against me prodding him for activity, but then back off substantially. He offered up a few light reads and made a suggestion about the pair of Diiny and Enrique (now Boomslang), but what caught my eye most of all was the extreme reactions on both ends of the spectrum here. Sig went from 0 to 100 and back down to 0 in a matter of minutes. I don't know if I just disarmed him or what, but the reaction was alarming, and after that initial post I got a vibe that he was trying to play it safe so as to not provoke me to scum read him in any way.

Sig, what can you recall from this exchange? What thoughts were going through your head?

[Sloonei]

Well that was all supposed to go in a spoiler but I guess it's just gonna sit there in the open now.

[Sloonei]

Scotty, who would you vote for after Quin?

[Spacedaisy]

@ Hosts - Do the prisoner's votes count as normal votes in the lynch poll?

Yes the prisoners' votes count as normal in this lynch poll.

[Scotty]

Scotty, who would you vote for after Quin?

If it comes to it, chaindeath. I could humor a sig lynch, but my paranoia is setting in again that it's just too easy. The whole thing has been too easy and yet we keep falling short of lynching him because it's too easy. Is this finally the day we lynch him to settle our fears?

The thing is, we've given sig ample time to form a civ likeness and he hasn't really come out of his shell, after 2 save opportunities.

I just think that Quin's reads are all wrong and he is more likely to be bad.
But I do see the premise of lynching sig in that he is more likely to give us information.

Linki: well there ya go. Prisoner votes count. That's just great. Those 9 of you unaffiliated ruffians better use some good judgment because we're counting on you to kill the cops that put you in the slammer in the first place.

[Sloonei]

Since ika was the counterwagon to Fuzz who WAS bad, I find it hard to see him as bad, although I guess anything is possible.

I've never understood this mindset, at least not the most general concept of it: that a baddie cannot be the counterwagon of another baddie. That would only indicate that the townies are on point, and I don't think that's outrageous. However, the development of the counterwagon and other contextual details could change my mind. Is there a reason specific to that context that makes you feel this way, or is it purely that ika was the counterwagon?

It was a CFD, and Fuzz had ZERO votes when it started. There was some panic and some people pushing hard against the Fuzz wagon. Like Quin, and Fuzz himself had voted for ika, and kept his vote there. I guess it is possioble, but two others had 4 or 5 votes at that time, and I doubt they were all baddies. and ika would up with the most visible votes, even though Fuzz was lynched:

Okay, a massive CFD is definitely important context so I can understand a bit better. I do think that it's fair to assume that a CFD which fell onto a confirmed mafia Fuzz was probably more town-motivated than not (because if ika is town then the mafia obviously are content to keep it there, and if ika is mafia then it'd be a huge risk to kill one member and leave other as a top suspect still). With that in mind, I'm still not sure it says much about ika's alignment. I'm not saying ika is a top suspect though, because my own interactive read wasn't terribly conclusive.

The context of Fuzz's lynch is unique and highly important to developing any reads on any of the players who were present for it. Quin, sig, and Enrique/Boomslang were the three people who I felt came out of it looking the most "typically" suspicious; that is, they all resisted the wagon and expressed frustration during and even AFTER Fuzz had flipped bad. For a time Enrique seemed to concede the game, but then he was replaced and I think we all just forgot about his part in things.

The thing that stood out most to be about Quin was that moments before RadicalFuzz was suggested as the target for the new bandwagon, Quin seemed to voice support of the idea of lynching someone new at the last minute in this post, but then immediately opposes voting for Fuzz because nothing had been said prior to the bandwagon's formation (here). Quin and I argued this point at length and I came out of it feeling unconvinced. I can't look past what appears to be a complete shift in his stance once the votes piled in, and the best explanation I can think of for such a shift would be that he wanted to protect the person receiving the votes, who was Fuzz, who was bad. I would like to hear some outside opinions on this issue, if any of your prison folk don't mind commenting.

[Sloonei]

Scotty, who would you vote for after Quin?

If it comes to it, chaindeath. I could humor a sig lynch, but my paranoia is setting in again that it's just too easy. The whole thing has been too easy and yet we keep falling short of lynching him because it's too easy. Is this finally the day we lynch him to settle our fears?

The thing is, we've given sig ample time to form a civ likeness and he hasn't really come out of his shell, after 2 save opportunities.

I just think that Quin's reads are all wrong and he is more likely to be bad.
But I do see the premise of lynching sig in that he is more likely to give us information.

Linki: well there ya go. Prisoner votes count. That's just great. Those 9 of you unaffiliated ruffians better use some good judgment because we're counting on you to kill the cops that put you in the slammer in the first place.

You named chaindeath as your, I assume, #2 suspect but then went on to spend the rest of the post talking about people who are not chaindeath. Why is this? And tell me more about chaindeath.

[Sloonei]

ZEBRA, why am I bad?

[Spacedaisy]

In case MP has not already announced this, Prisoners are not eligible to borrow votes from the loan sharks.

[Sloonei]

Turnip Head, I am not sure where your turnip is at right now and you have also seemed to express some confusion and frustration with the game in the last few phases. Would it help if I requested some gun-to-head reads on players? Because I'm gonna do that. Give me an alignment read on Serge, Dragon D. Luffy, Sloonei, Soneji, Draconus, and indiglo.

[Sloonei]

Speaking of indiglo, I want her to name a suspect or two who is/are not currently being widely suspected in the thread.

[Sloonei]

I expect answers to all those questions when I wake up in the morning. Work is done being a bother and I can PLAY again, friends.

Also, welcome prisoners. I will be severely disappointed if George Bluth Sr. is not among you.

[Scotty]

Scotty, who would you vote for after Quin?

If it comes to it, chaindeath. I could humor a sig lynch, but my paranoia is setting in again that it's just too easy. The whole thing has been too easy and yet we keep falling short of lynching him because it's too easy. Is this finally the day we lynch him to settle our fears?

The thing is, we've given sig ample time to form a civ likeness and he hasn't really come out of his shell, after 2 save opportunities.

I just think that Quin's reads are all wrong and he is more likely to be bad.
But I do see the premise of lynching sig in that he is more likely to give us information.

Linki: well there ya go. Prisoner votes count. That's just great. Those 9 of you unaffiliated ruffians better use some good judgment because we're counting on you to kill the cops that put you in the slammer in the first place.

You named chaindeath as your, I assume, #2 suspect but then went on to spend the rest of the post talking about people who are not chaindeath. Why is this? And tell me more about chaindeath.

Oh sorry, I assumed you had read my recent ISO on chaindeath.

Here ya go: death to chains

[Sloonei]

Scotty, who would you vote for after Quin?

If it comes to it, chaindeath. I could humor a sig lynch, but my paranoia is setting in again that it's just too easy. The whole thing has been too easy and yet we keep falling short of lynching him because it's too easy. Is this finally the day we lynch him to settle our fears?

The thing is, we've given sig ample time to form a civ likeness and he hasn't really come out of his shell, after 2 save opportunities.

I just think that Quin's reads are all wrong and he is more likely to be bad.
But I do see the premise of lynching sig in that he is more likely to give us information.

Linki: well there ya go. Prisoner votes count. That's just great. Those 9 of you unaffiliated ruffians better use some good judgment because we're counting on you to kill the cops that put you in the slammer in the first place.

You named chaindeath as your, I assume, #2 suspect but then went on to spend the rest of the post talking about people who are not chaindeath. Why is this? And tell me more about chaindeath.

Oh sorry, I assumed you had read my recent ISO on chaindeath.

Here ya go: death to chains

I am a big dumb idiot for missing this. I like this post, and at the very least it makes me feel better about you. At most, it may also be making me suspicious of chaindeath. Has he responded? Please, do all my work for me.

[Young Lady]

Anyone that does not listen to us will end up listening to the flames as their body turns into a crisp

[Sloonei]

On the subject of things that I'm not seeing, I remember someone at some point making a nice substantial case against Serge that I liked, but most of the last week is just a blur and I hardly retained anything that happened in this game (Scotty cited me in his chaindeath ISO that I looked at just now, and I genuinely had no memory of the post he was referencing). Who's suspicious of Serge, and what are the points against him?

[Sloonei]

Anyone that does not listen to us will end up listening to the flames as their body turns into a crisp

Okay then, speak up.

[Young Lady]

I didn't think that far ahead I'm afraid.

[Young Lady]

But eehhh, death to the Warden!

[Quin]

Apologies for missing your prompt the first time.

Checking Quin's interactions with Fuzz:

Spoiler: show

I'm writing this as I'm reading, so if some points have already been addressed then ignore me.

Spoiler: show

Quin the assumption that anybody acting strange, presumably to perform a task, should be a town read is something I find odd.

You're not wrong. Coming back into it after rethinking things made me wonder what I was thinking. Part of the reason for thinking he is town was in his creation of the 'non-changeable vote' strategy, though. It was so early on that I clicked him as town.

I have like 4 more pages to read, brb.

I'm not a fan of this post for a couple of reasons:

1. Quin backed off of an assertion that I think is sometimes agreeable (blatantly strange behavior is often a towntell) and I don't know why he felt this compulsion to change his mind.
2. This sort of dialogue with a confirmed baddie is a bit suspicious at face value. It's tame, it's safe, and most importantly it features the impression of distance (Fuzz challenging a Quin point) but without any sort of actual accusation.

I think that early on I was really trying to understand the capo/crew functions. His strange behaviour was what I thought to be a direct result of him being in that trio. He did come up with a voting strategy I felt really good about, like I said in that post. I agree with you on the principle that weird behaviour can be seen as town, but I also thought that it was something that could have been exploited, which was definitely at the very least a contributing factor as to why I changed my mind.

I don't have a defence to your thoughts that Fuzz was trying to create a sense of distance between us. I think this post might be the only direct conversation between us, and because of that, all I can say is 'No it wasn't', which I hate to say. If you did find something in your ISO that says otherwise, I'd love to discuss it.

Spoiler: show

I am not seeing a lot of reasoning behind the fuzz vote. I don't like it at all. I can't recall a single thing in the thread even being said that would paint fuzz as scum.

linki: even more 'okay fizz it is' without anything tangible to work with.

It's easy to look at a post like this and come to an immediate negative stance. Quin staunchly defended a confirmed baddie. That doesn't necessarily have to be a bad thing though, because in my experience when a player is this dead wrong on a read it usually is reflective of genuine wrongness. On the occasion it is indeed maliciously-motivated, it tends to come from players who have a special knack for WIFOM (like MacDougall for example). I don't know that I'd associate Quin with that type of player, though I acknowledge that I haven't played with him. I'd like to hear what Sloonei thinks of this specific thought given his experience playing with Quin.

My mafia style is a lot more focused on achieving convincing levels of disassociation with my teammates. Or at least, that's what I like to say. If I was mafia (Yet another thing I hate to say) I definitely would not have thrown myself into this situation by defending him. I want to say that I'm using 'defend' very loosely here. I've said it before, but my reasoning to oppose the Fuzz lynch was in that a lot of votes swung his way in a very short amount of time and I couldn't bring myself to agree with the interpretations and logic that was there to lynch Fuzz. He was by no means a town read, but I felt strongly that ika was a better option, and for reasons that I am still holding onto. I think you can see my mafia style pretty clearly by looking at the Zodiac mafia game, because I feel like I played my best game there. But by all means, take what Sloonei has to say into account as well.

Spoiler: show

no one ever voiced anything about fuzz until know.

This is what I am struggling to understand. It's why I am on principle refusing to vote for fuzz.

Again a strong pro-Fuzz stance is asserted. The same principles apply. By this point it appears a Fuzz lynch was well in hand? Please correct me anyone if I am mistaken. If that's the case, then one could argue that Quin didn't want to make the always-suspicious late-phase pile-on vote for a team mate. However, it is at least consistent with Quin's prior defensiveness of Fuzz and I don't think that assumption should be automatic.

I've seen the last-minute jump so many times I can't really argue against it's validity. I think, if I were to say anything, I'd say that I have definitely been consistent in my thoughts on Fuzz even up to now, because there is no point in pretending I thought something else when I did not. I'm also not trying to move past the EoD2 events, because I feel like it is definitely one of the biggest sources of information that we can gather.

Spoiler: show

And that is why last minute lynch trains are NOT bad. They make the baddies scramble hard, and man do I think they stuffed up.

@quin - I'll have to get my ecstatic emotions in check and be more rational before I can give specifics. The best answer I can give right now is 'behaviour in wake of the shift to a Fuzz lynch'

My refusal to vote for Fuzz was well justified. I did not see any organised reasoning for the bandwagon and it looked fishy as hell. I even made a point of the lack of justification, which nobody decided to respond to.

I'll look at one post-Fuzz-lynch post too here. Given that Quin was so incorrect about Fuzz, I think there's value in checking his reaction to the baddie flip. He stood by his guns and a little frustration showed through the cracks too. At least in terms of tone, I am not perturbed.

There was most definitely frustration. I think that comes with the territory of believing something and then once it's clear that you're wrong, you come to the realisation that there are going to be consequences.

---------------

The first post is the worst of it that I can see. However, I am not overwhelmingly sold on a Quin lynch. His defenses of Fuzz do not bear the standard appearance of a mafia-mafia interaction. It's possible, but it's atypical.

[Celeste]

I expect answers to all those questions when I wake up in the morning. Work is done being a bother and I can PLAY again, friends.

Also, welcome prisoners. I will be severely disappointed if George Bluth Sr. is not among you.

I am among me.

[Sloonei]

I didn't think that far ahead I'm afraid.

How do you plan to use your time in this free thread?

[Quin]

I didn't think that far ahead I'm afraid.

How do you plan to use your time in this free thread?

What do you have to say to my lynch chain? Specifically where I mention you and golden. I haven't got a clue how to do hyperlinks, but it's the first post on page 99.

[Quin]

Sorry, I just remembered I shouldn't be quoting people when I want to ask them a question.

[Young Lady]

Planning is for suckers. I do what I want, when I want, whenever I want.

Who should I vote?

[Golf]

Some of these guys aren't even playing for the hometeam. Some of these people are actually prisoners. I don't like this.

Look, if you're gonna vote for a player today, at least give them a reach around first.

Some of them could actually be undercover cops, for all we know.

Therw's too muUuuUuUuuch paranoias.

Why are you so obviously civ for everyone who knows you?

[Sloonei]

In response to ole Prisoner 509378, I don't have much experience playing with Quin, but I am familiar with his personality and the Mafia community he played in before coming here. I mostly just hosted/co-hosted games there, and only ever played twice. The first time I was mafia and established myself as a strong town read early in the game by bussing one of my teammates. This was apparently something that was very rare there, and people were shocked when it was revealed what I had done.
That said, I certainly would expect Quin to not entertain the thought of bussing, but the idea that he might be a tad bit uncomfortable with lynching a teammate certainly doesn't make me see his Day/Night 2 actions in any more favorable light. Given the chaotic circumstances of RadicalFuzz's wagon and lynch, I tend to agree with Golden that it's more likely that other mafia members genuinely would have been unsettled and not know how to react to the events in real time. It would have forced them to think on their feet and make their own moves in real time without the benefit of behind the scenes plotting. These are all ifs, of course. But, following that theory, I am not opposed to looking out for any behavior that might match the description during that period.

[Young Lady]

I think all Prisoners should unite and determine the outcome of the lynch poll

[Golf]

I think all Prisoners should unite and determine the outcome of the lynch poll

I don't, actually, but it would be nice to scare the bejeesus out of Golden.

[Sloonei]

There are four ideal choices for me right now. Part of why I asked you in the first place was because I wanted to know about what kind of links you could make between your lynch choices. I didn't get exactly what I wanted, but I supposed that's what I get for not making myself clearer.

I've had four people in my mind who would be great lynches. Each of these four have had connections with each other which, to me, came across as building an association with each other that might spare them scrutiny if the others were lynched. You could argue that the links I've made could apply to anybody, and you're not wrong. But I feel confident in these specific ones.

I'll stop you right here and say that this line of thinking can often be dangerous. The likelihood that you'll ever catch 4 baddies together because of their interactions with one another in the thread when NONE of the players in question are even confirmed as bad is slim to none. But, onto the individual cases...

Scotty would be the first. I'm yet to see a side of him in this game I could get a good read from. I think other people are coming around to that realisation as well, which is good. Couple that with my original 'what if' in regards to Tranq, I think he's playing a clever, under the radar game.

I'm not sure what you mean when you say you can't "see a side of him to get a good read from". Does "good" mean "strong", or does it mean "town"? Either way, I'm not sure what the suspicion is based off of. If it's just that he's hard to read, shouldn't that make him a null read? Also, what do you make of his big chaindeath ISO that he just told me to look at? I've had doubts about Scotty too, but the investigation he put on in that one post made me feel a bit better about him.

If he flipped scum, you would be my next point of interest. I think a lot of your posts have been black and white, an interpretation that others also have commented on. You are also connected to my Tranq case, as you made up a shaky defence for Scotty by saying that the police probably knew Tranq can be a threat, but that didn't address my original point at all.

For clarification to anyone else who might be reading, the "you" in this post is Golden, I believe. Quin can correct me if I'm wrong.
Back to Quirinius, my sirens are again going off at that big "If" at the beginning of this paragraph. IF scotty flips scum. You are now putting the cart in front of the horse. If that happens, sure, this can be a legitimate line of thought, but I can't approve of any case that relies on such an unsubstantiated piece of evidence. I also still don't agree with your assessment that Tranq's N1 arrest should be connected back in any way to Scotty. Frankly it seems like an odd connection to make, and I'm not sure what drew you to it. I can't think of any reason why a player voting for the person killed on Night 1 should indicate that that player is bad.

If you then flipped scum, I'd lynch Sloonei. He and you have had a very interesting relationship in this game. I am almost convinced that you have a BTSC link together. I take this interpretation since you are quite possibly the only player Sloonei has yet to question. (I just confirmed this, and in doing so, I learned that I can filter things!) From my understanding of Sloonei's personality, there's no other conclusion I can make. I don't have the same level of tangible evidence to argue for Sloonei's lynch, but I don't think I was seeing a civilian Sloonei throughout EoD2 to EoD3.

So I am a suspect on the third layer of If? Golden's been a solid town read. I also still have trouble grasping why you thought my Day 2 and 3 behavior was so outrageously scummy. I began to formulate stronger reads because the game had been going on for a while. This is a normal thing that happens (and then unhappens when work interferes).

If I was correct yet again, at which point you should be revering me as your one true mafia god, I would lynch Nerolunar. There was a moment that really caught my attention very early, when Sloonei asked if there were any cases that would paint Nero as scum. At this point, I don't think any strong cases painting Nero as scum or civ were out there, so it just seemed a bit wild. This is admittedly the weakest link between the four of you, but no less significant in my eyes. Nero also jumped on the idea of lynching Epignosis for the sake of obtaining information. This is definitely ironic of me to scum read him for, since it was my idea, but Nero has been very 'passive' in this game. He also suggested lynching sig so people would stop talking about him. This is not GOOD town behaviour, in my eyes, so I can only hope is scum for suggesting that.

Four Ifs, and even you are now admitting that you're reaching. Nero was also a strong town read for me early on, but he's kind of lost that spot as the game has worn on.

This post has way too many Ifs in it for me to get behind, and I don't agree with points 1-3 anyway. If you have time, I wouldn't mind hearing some more complete and isolated thoughts about each of Scotty and Nero.

also to hyperlink a post you simply click the red heading that appears at the top of the post ("[DAY 5] Turf Wars...") and the link in your search bar becomes a direct link to that post.

i assume there will be a mountain of linki that i'm just gonna ignore.

or just the one post.

[Sloonei]

Planning is for suckers. I do what I want, when I want, whenever I want.

Who should I vote?

Boomslang

[Young Lady]

Ok

[Sloonei]

Why did you vote for Boomslang? Why not sig?

[Golf]

Or Golden the Warden?

[Young Lady]

Nobody asked me to vote sig

[Sloonei]

Nobody asked me to vote sig

If I asked you to vote for sig, would you?

[Sloonei]

I said I'd be going to sleep an hour ago and then I just kept mafiaing. I'm actually doing that now.

[Young Lady]

Nah I think I'd rather put my vote on you for now.