Downton Abbey Mafia (ENDGAME)

[thellama73]

Lllama why are you suspicious of me? I would like to know

What part of "without explanation" do you people not understand?

[thellama73]

I see three scenarios here.

1. Ika is mafia and killed Silver before she could get a strong read on him.
2. Someone killed Silver to frame Ika, this points to an experienced mafia member.
3. Silver mainly talked about DF, Epi, and LC around the time of her death and EOD. One of them is mafia and killed her.

This list doesn't make sense to me. The Silver kill doesn't frame Ika, it practically exonerates him.

[Marmot]

I see three scenarios here.

1. Ika is mafia and killed Silver before she could get a strong read on him.
2. Someone killed Silver to frame Ika, this points to an experienced mafia member.
3. Silver mainly talked about DF, Epi, and LC around the time of her death and EOD. One of them is mafia and killed her.

This list doesn't make sense to me. The Silver kill doesn't frame Ika, it practically exonerates him.

Isn't that the idea that you supported in the first place?

[thellama73]

I see three scenarios here.

1. Ika is mafia and killed Silver before she could get a strong read on him.
2. Someone killed Silver to frame Ika, this points to an experienced mafia member.
3. Silver mainly talked about DF, Epi, and LC around the time of her death and EOD. One of them is mafia and killed her.

This list doesn't make sense to me. The Silver kill doesn't frame Ika, it practically exonerates him.

Isn't that the idea that you supported in the first place?

Yes, I've always said I don't think Ika capable of killing Silver N1. So I don't see how the kill frames him, as Sig suggests.

[Nerolunar]

Lllama why are you suspicious of me? I would like to know

What part of "without explanation" do you people not understand?

Okay.

I assume Mcgonnamakeyouvoteacertainwaygal made you do it.

I could see a DFaraday lynch today. He has been wallflowering a little and it reminds me of Arkham. BWT looked worse than DF yesterday but with him gone, there is still suspicion towards DF that has not been settled yet. Im voting for him so far.

DFaraday

[sig]

@Scotty nah don't worry about it I'm not mafia.
@Llama I'm saying it is a scenario I didn't rank them in order from most to least likely. Though I disagree that it exonerates him I know if I had someone who could read me that well I'd want them dead asap if I was mafia. I think the third is most likely followed by the first seeing how nobody has yet to jump on the Ika could be mafia thing.

Of course the mafia could've also just killed her since she was active.

[Marmot]

I see three scenarios here.

1. Ika is mafia and killed Silver before she could get a strong read on him.
2. Someone killed Silver to frame Ika, this points to an experienced mafia member.
3. Silver mainly talked about DF, Epi, and LC around the time of her death and EOD. One of them is mafia and killed her.

This list doesn't make sense to me. The Silver kill doesn't frame Ika, it practically exonerates him.

Isn't that the idea that you supported in the first place?

Yes, I've always said I don't think Ika capable of killing Silver N1. So I don't see how the kill frames him, as Sig suggests.

Oh right. I was just being pedantic in that list should make sense to you since it supports your claim.

[thellama73]

I assume Mcgonnamakeyouvoteacertainwaygal made you do it.

You know what they say about when you assume.

[Nerolunar]

I assume Mcgonnamakeyouvoteacertainwaygal made you do it.

You know what they say about when you assume.

I don´t actually. I can´t see any other way.

You could come forward and tell me instead. I can only assume since you insist on keeping your mouth shut about it.

[thellama73]

I'm disappointed that people think I would be so obvious about a vote force.

[Scotty]

I assume Mcgonnamakeyouvoteacertainwaygal made you do it.

You know what they say about when you assume.

I don´t actually. I can´t see any other way.

You could come forward and tell me instead. I can only assume since you insist on keeping your mouth shut about it.

He's saying it makes an ass out of u and him.

Llama's an alpaca, not a donkey.
Though sometimes he can be a complete ass.

[Nerolunar]

Fair enough.

[Long Con]

I assume Mcgonnamakeyouvoteacertainwaygal made you do it.

You know what they say about when you assume.

So... you just assume he knows?

[Long Con]

I'm disappointed that people think I would be so obvious about a vote force.

I usually try to perform a forced vote as naturally as I can, because I value the spirit of the game, and I don't think it's as good to have a vote-forcer if the person can just broadcast that their vote was forced. That's why BR and I made The Hunger, the ultimate opinion-forcer, powered by fear and death. Is this how you approach vote-forcing as well?

[Spacedaisy]

This is a moo point (like a cow's opinion a la Joey from Friends) since the force vote role is gone.

[Long Con]

This is a moo point (like a cow's opinion a la Joey from Friends) since the force vote role is gone.

True, true.

[Dom]

Daisy, would you like to answer my question or?

[thellama73]

I'm disappointed that people think I would be so obvious about a vote force.

I usually try to perform a forced vote as naturally as I can, because I value the spirit of the game, and I don't think it's as good to have a vote-forcer if the person can just broadcast that their vote was forced. That's why BR and I made The Hunger, the ultimate opinion-forcer, powered by fear and death. Is this how you approach vote-forcing as well?

Absolutely.

[DFaraday]

Lllama why are you suspicious of me? I would like to know

What part of "without explanation" do you people not understand?

Okay.

I assume Mcgonnamakeyouvoteacertainwaygal made you do it.

I could see a DFaraday lynch today. He has been wallflowering a little and it reminds me of Arkham. BWT looked worse than DF yesterday but with him gone, there is still suspicion towards DF that has not been settled yet. Im voting for him so far.

DFaraday

I know you've only played the on game with me, but wallflowering is my signature move in every game.

I'm voting Matt for now because literally every post he's had this game is about how he's behind and needs to catch up.

[thellama73]

I'm voting Matt for now because literally every post he's had this game is about how he's behind and needs to catch up.

This is true, and upsetting, and I kind of want to vote for him too, but I can't see a baddie intentionally adopting it as a strategy. Do you think his failure to catch up is indicative of alignment, or is this just a protest vote to try to get him to pay attention?

[Scotty]

I'm voting Matt for now because literally every post he's had this game is about how he's behind and needs to catch up.

This is true, and upsetting, and I kind of want to vote for him too, but I can't see a baddie intentionally adopting it as a strategy. Do you think his failure to catch up is indicative of alignment, or is this just a protest vote to try to get him to pay attention?

I have no idea what to think of Matt's baddie game. When we were bad on Lost Again together, he was loud and boisterous early and then stuck trying to bus a teammate early. This he said was a mistake and that he lost us the game because of it, so who knows what other strategies he has come up with since.

In this instance, Matt has waddled around dragging behind a deflated balloon full of promise.

Don't be a sad clown, Matt. Be the prince that was promised.

[Spacedaisy]

Daisy what do you think of Illy's post?

Daisy, would you like to answer my question or?

Geez, relax a minute here, lol. I read your question at work and wanted to ISO Illy to see what you were talking about. That is why I didn't answer you sooner. The answer is, what post are you referring to? Most of her posts were fluff. I don't mean that disrespectfully, I've been giving it a pass for now because I assume she is just getting reacclimated to the game. But you clearly have one post in mind so could you clarify your question please?

[Epignosis]

I'm going to table the birdwithteeth11 voters for the present. I'd rather pay attention to the outliers.

Polo
1
Polo (18)
4%

If you're a civilian, quit voting for yourself.

Epignosis
1
Black Rock (22)
4%

Black Rock voted me for questioning and voting her, but has changed her mind despite being mean to me. Black Rock was my top suspect going into Day 2, but Lady Edith suggests I dial back on that. Yes, m'lady.

DrWilgy
1
LoRab (17)
4%

Voted Dr Wilgy, because I don't feel so strongly about any of the bandwagons, and I need to vote whle I have a moment. I don't like that he's hiding behind shtick--that is a behavior that generally rings baddie to me. So, really, I guess this is my asking him to just post normally so we can all just read his posts simply.

That post doesn't say one thing or another to me, so I am going to eye Lorab all I want.

Dom
1
ika (1)
4%

ika has 105 posts. I think I can guess why he got silenced. ika voted first and out of the gate and, as you may recall, many followed suit. ika was the only one to leave his vote in place. I have no intention of lynching a silenced person Day 2, so I'll table this too.

That's the solo voters. Predictably, there isn't much there.

[Epignosis]

DFaraday
5
Long Con (5), birdwithteeth11 (6), thellama73 (7), Silverwolf (9), sig (16)
22%

Living people later. Dead people now.

birdwithteeth11, a confirmed civilian, voted DFaraday before saving himself would have even been an issue, so we can have full confidence that DFaraday was Cousin Violet's top lynch choice for Day 1.

Silverwolf is almost a 100% confirmed civilian. Lorab raised the possibility of Mr. Carson redirecting the kill. On Night 1, he would have a 5.55% chance of targeting the killer, and then a 16.67% chance of making that killer target a teammate. If my maths are accurate, then Mr. Carson has less than a 1% chance of accomplishing this Night 1, meaning that Silverwolf has over a 99% chance of being a civilian. That's close enough for confirmed, in my book, which means that's two confirmed civilian votes on DFaraday Day 1.

[Epignosis]

DFaraday
1
Nerolunar (8)

DFaraday has a new challenger, but none of his previous voters have yet stood by their Day 1 accusations.

I could see a DFaraday lynch today. He has been wallflowering a little and it reminds me of Arkham. BWT looked worse than DF yesterday but with him gone, there is still suspicion towards DF that has not been settled yet. Im voting for him so far.

DFaraday

Nerolunar was himself a birdwithteeth voter.

Hmm.

Recently DF has been defending himself pretty well imo. I can see where he is coming from - being wary of wagons that build up too fast. As Scotty just mentioned, BWt´s lack of defense contrary to DF who is actually trying does look worse.

Bwt

If "looking bad" is what we're supposed to be looking for, then I'd say Nerolunar looks pretty bad: The object of Mafia isn't to settle suspicion by mindlessly lynching every runner up in succession.

[Scotty]

There are a few possibilities I can see for llama voting Nero without justification:

-llama is actually a pretty Lady named Sybil and saw someone do something naughty to someone else. Like kill Silver. This would be a snipe in the dark on night 1 on a player that didn't have a huge presence, so while it's possible, it's unlikely.
-llama is Isobel Crowley and found Nero to have BTSC. This is more likely to land someone with BTSC but there should be a cause for pause, since there are civ factions too. I would think llama to be a little more sneaky if this were the case, since he can't be sure Nero is bad then.
-llama is Mr. Carson, and redirected Nero's action to silver. This can be likely, though why he would pick Nero to switch to a mostly believable townie in silver I couldn't tell you. This would mean that his BTSC partner would know as well, and so far llama has been met with trepidation concerning support of Llama's pick.
-llama has been blackmailed by Thomas Barrow. This one raises questions because I'm not sure what blackmailing entails. If it's a frame job, llama made his choice pretty blatant. But I dunno. Could be a likely possibility.
-llama is Mafia and/or Sarah obrien, and wants to eliminate a useful civ role.
-llama is a wild animal and has no rhyme or reason for acting the way he is acting regarding the vote.

I think there are too inconclusive to follow

[Nerolunar]

Not my train of thought. I felt null-bad about both DF and BWT yesterday, but ended up on BWT because he didnt defend himself at all.

Im not going to continue this procedure all game

[Polo]

I guess we all agree that Ika was silenced, correct?
Illyria, Bubbles and Dr. Wilgy (this one has been lurking) have yet to speak today, but please do correct me if I'm wrong or missing anyone.

I'm going to table the birdwithteeth11 voters for the present. I'd rather pay attention to the outliers.

Polo
1
Polo (18)
4%

If you're a civilian, quit voting for yourself.

I believe I've been very clear as to why I did not want to lynch anyone on D1. Let's move on, shall we?

[Epignosis]

I haven't seen any fun in here.

[Polo]

There are a few possibilities I can see for llama voting Nero without justification:

-llama is actually a pretty Lady named Sybil and saw someone do something naughty to someone else. Like kill Silver. This would be a snipe in the dark on night 1 on a player that didn't have a huge presence, so while it's possible, it's unlikely.
-llama is Isobel Crowley and found Nero to have BTSC. This is more likely to land someone with BTSC but there should be a cause for pause, since there are civ factions too. I would think llama to be a little more sneaky if this were the case, since he can't be sure Nero is bad then.
-llama is Mr. Carson, and redirected Nero's action to silver. This can be likely, though why he would pick Nero to switch to a mostly believable townie in silver I couldn't tell you. This would mean that his BTSC partner would know as well, and so far llama has been met with trepidation concerning support of Llama's pick.
-llama has been blackmailed by Thomas Barrow. This one raises questions because I'm not sure what blackmailing entails. If it's a frame job, llama made his choice pretty blatant. But I dunno. Could be a likely possibility.
-llama is Mafia and/or Sarah obrien, and wants to eliminate a useful civ role.
-llama is a wild animal and has no rhyme or reason for acting the way he is acting regarding the vote.

I think there are too inconclusive to follow

Oh, I don't think llama is Mr. Carson.

[Epignosis]

There are a few possibilities I can see for llama voting Nero without justification:

-llama is actually a pretty Lady named Sybil and saw someone do something naughty to someone else. Like kill Silver. This would be a snipe in the dark on night 1 on a player that didn't have a huge presence, so while it's possible, it's unlikely.
-llama is Isobel Crowley and found Nero to have BTSC. This is more likely to land someone with BTSC but there should be a cause for pause, since there are civ factions too. I would think llama to be a little more sneaky if this were the case, since he can't be sure Nero is bad then.
-llama is Mr. Carson, and redirected Nero's action to silver. This can be likely, though why he would pick Nero to switch to a mostly believable townie in silver I couldn't tell you. This would mean that his BTSC partner would know as well, and so far llama has been met with trepidation concerning support of Llama's pick.
-llama has been blackmailed by Thomas Barrow. This one raises questions because I'm not sure what blackmailing entails. If it's a frame job, llama made his choice pretty blatant. But I dunno. Could be a likely possibility.
-llama is Mafia and/or Sarah obrien, and wants to eliminate a useful civ role.
-llama is a wild animal and has no rhyme or reason for acting the way he is acting regarding the vote.

I think there are too inconclusive to follow

Oh, I don't think llama is Mr. Carson.

Why not?

[Nerolunar]

Granted, I did understand his point about being wary of wagons but he looks so much like Arkham - thats the main driving force. Sorry if I'm being confusing about this.

[Polo]

I believe you are Mr. Carson, Epignosis.

[Scotty]

I believe you are Mr. Carson, Epignosis.

[Scotty]

Ok. If Matt never comes back I'm keeping my vote on him.


If not, I'll humor the Nero vote.

[Polo]

I believe you are Mr. Carson, Epignosis.

Call me ingenious for thinking this but he was removed from the lynch poll today, and the only person who can do that is Mrs. Hughes, who has BTSC with Carson.

I think it would be too risky for them to agree to remove someone else from the lynch poll without enough info on their hands; they could end up protecting a mafioso and making stuff worse for us civs.

[Polo]

EBWOP: I actually mean "naïve" instead of "ingenious". Sorry. English is not my first language and "ingenious" is pretty similar to "ingênuo", which is Portuguese for "naïve".

[Polo]

Dr. Wilgy, are you going to insist on lurking?

[Scotty]

I believe you are Mr. Carson, Epignosis.

Call me ingenious for thinking this but he was removed from the lynch poll today, and the only person who can do that is Mrs. Hughes, who has BTSC with Carson.

I think it would be too risky for them to agree to remove someone else from the lynch poll without enough info on their hands; they could end up protecting a mafioso and making stuff worse for us civs.

If they did this- which I have been thinking and why I don't think Epi is bad right now- then Mafia knows who is an easier person to kill tonight

[thellama73]

EBWOP: I actually mean "naïve" instead of "ingenious". Sorry. English is not my first language and "ingenious" is pretty similar to "ingênuo", which is Portuguese for "naïve".

That's where we get ingenue, a stock character type of an innocent young woman. Ain't language neat?

[DrWilgy]

*Polo cries out to the wind*

Dr. Wilgy, are you going to insist on lurking?

*A whisper can be heard*
Yes...

Yes I am...

My phone died and my means of playing and keeping up with the chat are limited...

Scotty, I think you are civ... who should I look at and in what order...

[Scotty]

*Polo cries out to the wind*

Dr. Wilgy, are you going to insist on lurking?

*A whisper can be heard*
Yes...

Yes I am...

My phone died and my means of playing and keeping up with the chat are limited...

Scotty, I think you are civ... who should I look at and in what order...

Why do you think I'm civ, Doctor?

[Epignosis]

I believe you are Mr. Carson, Epignosis.

I believe you are Mr. Carson, Epignosis.

Call me ingenious for thinking this but he was removed from the lynch poll today, and the only person who can do that is Mrs. Hughes, who has BTSC with Carson.

I think it would be too risky for them to agree to remove someone else from the lynch poll without enough info on their hands; they could end up protecting a mafioso and making stuff worse for us civs.

If I were Mr. Carson, I would ask Mrs. Hughes not to take me off the poll Day 1. I would rather try to work out who Daisy is early on, take her off the poll, make the mafia think that person is Mr. Carson to have the vanilla role take the kill and keep myself alive.

Maybe they think I'm Daisy.

I believe you are Mr. Carson, Epignosis.

Call me ingenious for thinking this but he was removed from the lynch poll today, and the only person who can do that is Mrs. Hughes, who has BTSC with Carson.

I think it would be too risky for them to agree to remove someone else from the lynch poll without enough info on their hands; they could end up protecting a mafioso and making stuff worse for us civs.

If they did this- which I have been thinking and why I don't think Epi is bad right now- then Mafia knows who is an easier person to kill tonight

It also means Lord Grantham knows whom to protect.

[DrWilgy]

*Polo cries out to the wind*

Dr. Wilgy, are you going to insist on lurking?

*A whisper can be heard*
Yes...

Yes I am...

My phone died and my means of playing and keeping up with the chat are limited...

Scotty, I think you are civ... who should I look at and in what order...

Why do you think I'm civ, Doctor?

*The ghost of Wilgy appears yet again, still looking like a fool with a bed sheet thrown over him*
I feel it in my gut. You aren't playing like baddie Scotty.

[Polo]

I believe you are Mr. Carson, Epignosis.

Call me ingenious for thinking this but he was removed from the lynch poll today, and the only person who can do that is Mrs. Hughes, who has BTSC with Carson.

I think it would be too risky for them to agree to remove someone else from the lynch poll without enough info on their hands; they could end up protecting a mafioso and making stuff worse for us civs.

If I were Mr. Carson, I would ask Mrs. Hughes not to take me off the poll Day 1. I would rather try to work out who Daisy is early on, take her off the poll, make the mafia think that person is Mr. Carson to have the vanilla role take the kill and keep myself alive.

Which is why I said I may have been very naïve by saying that. I need to consider every possibility, even the most obvious ones. Occam's razor has been very useful to me in real life and it might as well be useful in mafia games!

[Illyria]

Voting for the absentees (or those who aren't posting much) is something I can get along with.

While I do not mind that as a Day One strategy, I would like to see how this day shakes out before we go there.

WOW. Several out of the gate votes, that feels so strange to me. Is this normal now?

I have never read BWT right, this game proves no exception.

This was posted before the lynch result. How do you know you were not reading him right, when you didn't know his alignment?

Or did you know his alignment after all?

No idea on his alignment before the lynch. I was stating I have never read him right, I was all over the place on his alignment as I read through the thread. So yeah, this game is right on track for me. Huzzah.

Also, what name did you call me?

How did you know if you read him right though?

Because I could not decide where he fell, and I know BWT (or did) he was the only player that I knew upon whom I was waffling. I have the new to me people in a ??? category right now until I get a better feel for them as we go.

I did not believe ika to be bad because his play is drastically different than in Turf Wars and I don't think he is simply fooling us. I think at least one of the baddies payed Turf Wars and recognized Silverwolf as a legitimate threat because of her instincts in that game. I need to check out the player list to get an idea of who that might narrow it down to for me.

Also, I am wondering if llama has been blackmailed.

Has ika been in here yet?

I would tell you whether I've been blackmailed or not, but I don't want the lie detector to waste a night power on me.

See, like this. Yes, I concur. This pinged me. It seems a little.... I am not sure. Do we have a Marytrdom Magenta?
Add this to announcing a civ role you think someone is, thus setting them up to be NK'd is very worrying.

Sorry y'all I am here. I am on call as a coordinator this weekend, so I will be around in spurts. This is one of them!

[Illyria]

Bah. Sorry. Polo is to whom the ping over the possible NK set up is directed.

Llama is the original ping for the LD comment.

[thellama73]

Not gonna lie, I didn't understand any of that.

[Epignosis]

I would like to know how serious Black Rock was about lynching Long Con Day 1, and how interested she is about doing so now, if at all.

[Polo]

Bah. Sorry. Polo is to whom the ping over the possible NK set up is directed.

Llama is the original ping for the LD comment.

Wait, what?

What do you mean by ping?