Downton Abbey Mafia (ENDGAME)

[Epignosis]

"Meta" is foolishness.

I disagree. Though if you won't talk meta what do you think of her slightly manipulative posts and comments about how fast and crazy the game is.

What do you think of loaded questions?

[sig]

"Meta" is foolishness.

I disagree. Though if you won't talk meta what do you think of her slightly manipulative posts and comments about how fast and crazy the game is.

What do you think of loaded questions?

I think I wouldn't need to have asked a loaded question if someone had given me a meta read/insight instead of saying meta was foolish.

[Epignosis]

birdwithteeth11
7
Spacedaisy (8), Metalmarsh89 (10), DFaraday (11), Dom (13), Scotty (14), Nerolunar (15), Matt (19)
30%

DFaraday
5
Long Con (5), birdwithteeth11 (6), thellama73 (7), Silverwolf (9), sig (16)
22%

++++

Bubbles
5
Sorsha (10), Spacedaisy (12), Epignosis (13), Polo (15), thellama73 (17)
26%

DFaraday
5
Nerolunar (5), sig (8), Bubbles (9), Long Con (14), Matt (19)
26%

Matt
3
Scotty (2), Metalmarsh89 (3), DFaraday (6)
16%


++++

Lorab
8
Epignosis (4), Nerolunar (10), Matt (11), DFaraday (12), Metalmarsh89 (13), sig (14), Spacedaisy (15), Polo (19)
42%

Spacedaisy
6
thellama73 (2), Scotty (6), Dom (7), ika (8), DrWilgy (16), Long Con (17)
32%

++++

The most important takeaway from the first two Days is that no Mafia was being saved (unless you consider Matt bad), despite accusations to the contrary at the time.

Both killed people were late voters for the individuals that were lynched or should have been lynched, namely DFaraday and Lorab.

Edith advises against a repeat of yesterday.

++++

thellama73 voted for DFaraday Day 1, then Bubbles Day 2, and then spacedaisy Day 3. He also suggested spacedaisy was leading people away from a DFaraday lynch.

Long Con voted for DFaraday twice, but then spacedaisy Day 3.

sig voted DFaraday twice, but then Lorab Day 3.

Those are the three living DFaraday voters from Day 1.

++++

[ika]

N

read the end of your post i quoted, you said "IF I FLIP CIV"

You know ika, your attitude in this game is very different from EST mafia. You've been much more aggressive. What happened?

Day 3 he was killed that night, I don't think it is a coincidence he suspected Ika and was then killed. I'm starting to believe more and more that Ika is mafia, potentially with Llama as a teammate. I'd like to lynch Ika today.

VOTE IKA

I'll ISO him soon.

besides that not much from Polo some early suss on Dom, but he later reads him as civ. As well as daisy and a slight civ read on Ika and maybe on Epi. This actually adds more weight to my Ika theory. Kill the player who suspected then changed his stance on you. It gets rid of an issue and isn't as likely to lead back to the killer.

if you think im scum with llama why do you vote me instead?

[ika]

so sig/llama are sucm and daisy porb third

[Marmot]

"Meta" is foolishness.

I'm more of a believer in "mata" myself.

[sig]

so sig/llama are sucm and daisy porb third

loool that makes no sense. I'm now mafia since I voted you and Daisy/llama are my teammates. I doubt any of use are that sloppy to tie THE ENTIRE TEAM TOGETHER. Nah your mafia and flailing around.


I didn't vote for llama since my mafia read on him is dependent on how you flip, why are so eager for me to switch from one scum to the other why does it matter?


In the wise words on a not so wise women.

"At this point what difference does it make!?"

[sig]

Epi didn't answer my question after throwing some shade at me, then whipped up a case faster then a platter of waffles hmmmm.

[Epignosis]

Epi didn't answer my question after throwing some shade at me, then whipped up a case faster then a platter of waffles hmmmm.

"Then?"

[sig]

Epi didn't answer my question after throwing some shade at me, then whipped up a case faster then a platter of waffles hmmmm.

"Then?"

Yes then.

[ika]

so sig/llama are sucm and daisy porb third

loool that makes no sense. I'm now mafia since I voted you and Daisy/llama are my teammates. I doubt any of use are that sloppy to tie THE ENTIRE TEAM TOGETHER. Nah your mafia and flailing around.


I didn't vote for llama since my mafia read on him is dependent on how you flip, why are so eager for me to switch from one scum to the other why does it matter?


In the wise words on a not so wise women.

"At this point what difference does it make!?"

becasue your setting up associatives pre-flip and doing what llama did "oh if dfar is scum daisy is too" its not one way

[ika]

and frankly im not in any mood to try to defend myself nor care to.

lynch me and then lynch sig/llama/dasiy

[Epignosis]

Epi didn't answer my question after throwing some shade at me, then whipped up a case faster then a platter of waffles hmmmm.

"Then?"

Yes then.

Not then. I was working on that business long before you asked about Illyria.

What case did I whip up?

[sig]

You making that post then Ika's immediate follow up looks fixed. How was my question loaded and why have you yet to answer it?

[Epignosis]

You making that post then Ika's immediate follow up looks fixed. How was my question loaded and why have you yet to answer it?

Erm, okay.

Your question was loaded because it assumed Illyria's posts were manipulative. I would have to share that assumption to answer your question. I don't. Therefore I can't answer your question.

[DrWilgy]

Do we wanna lynch Sig today?

Nah that sounds like a bad idea, why do you want to lynch Sig? He hasn't done anything scummy yet.

GOT EM

[Spacedaisy]

Ok so... I have been struggling with the fact that I am finding it much easier to identify people I think are civ than people I suspect which is weird for me. And then part of me wonders if I am way off about some of these people. So here are my thoughts... in the form of my very first rainbow list!

Epi
Sig
Llama
ika
Dom

Back Rock

Sorsha
Illy
MM
Nero

Matt
Wilgy
Long Con
Lorab
Scotty

Now, of those who are in my top green, I'm most confident about Epi and Sig being civ. If I am wrong about Epi, I think it will be apparent to me by the next Day cycle I think.

Llama, is a 50/50 chance I'm wrong in my assumption about something. If I am right then he is civ, if I am wrong then I would believe him to be bad. But as of now I feel pretty sure I am correct in believing him to be civ.

Dom and ika are based on meta playstyle. They are the two I could most easily be wrong about being civ. I would trust my read of ika more than my read of Dom. But both read civ to me.

The next group are my null/slight town read group, almost entirely based on gut.
The next are my absolutely no read at all on these people group.
And the last group are my null/slight mafia lean, again based mostly on gut.

I would most like to look at the last two groups and will try to do some ISOs on some of them during the rest of this cycle.

As a note, any of the stuff I have talked about here is thread activity I am basing it upon, this is not some kind of information. I'm in no way info dumping or anything. Also, as you can see I don't even feel confident enough in suspecting anyone to put a single name in red right now. Meh...

[DrWilgy]

I want reason for your Rab suspicion 1st if you can daisy.

[thellama73]

I want reason for your Rab suspicion 1st if you can daisy.

Yes, I concur with this.

Scotty is one I could easily see being bad. He's kept kind of a low profile this game.

[Nerolunar]

I could see Sig being bad tbh. Im not that used to his meta, but so far he seems more calculated than usual. Scotty too has this manipulative/calculated vibe. They are not acting the way they did in Turf Wars at least - what do you guys think of this?

I wouldn´t lynch Ika. He is a solid townread for me, as is Epignosis.

[Dom]

I want reason for your Rab suspicion 1st if you can daisy.

Yes, I concur with this.

Scotty is one I could easily see being bad. He's kept kind of a low profile this game.

I agree.


Bad reads for me:
-Scotty
-Daisy

Slight bad reads for me:
-Illy
-ika

[Dom]

And Lorab somehwere between the two.

[Nerolunar]

Yeah I dont think we should rule out Lorab either.

[Spacedaisy]

I want reason for your Rab suspicion 1st if you can daisy.

It's is only a slight suspicion, its mostly lingering because of her response to Silver's death. She has not postulated about anyone else's death being the result of Carson changing the targets. I think she might have been trying to give reasonable doubt to protect a teammate. But its one tiny ping so I don't feel confident in it. I know she answered me, but that small doubt about her is still hanging on.

[Long Con]

Ok, I have read here and there on my phone, but I'm going back to read through stuff since my last post yesterday.

Oh, the anxiety

Damn, man.

Seriously. Great timing on that one Polo, and RIP.

Can someone weight in on Sorsha's scum meta? I recall her being less active as mafia in EST and another game I played with her I think? However, I can't remember how active she usually is.

Sorsha was scum when I was hosting A World Reborn, and although she made it one lynch shy of the end of the game, she was not in the top ten posters. We need some comparison to games when she's Civ to be able to get much information from it without analyzing the content/style of her posts. Maybe I'll search something like that up when I'm done this catchup post. Future edit: I see that she poked her head in to say the other game is taking up most of her Mafia time right now, which is believable.

I see three scenarios here.

1. Ika is mafia and killed Silver before she could get a strong read on him.
2. Someone killed Silver to frame Ika, this points to an experienced mafia member.
3. Silver mainly talked about DF, Epi, and LC around the time of her death and EOD. One of them is mafia and killed her.

I'm requoting this, the more I think about the more likely it is to be true, plus I think all three would think that Ika could be framed for Silver's death. I'll do the leg work for it over the phase, I'm just throwing out some thoughts right now.

Are you and ika both mafia?

I'm not sure if Silverwolf's suspicions really were spot-on before the first nightkill; I believe she did not have enough time to gather much information and the mafia might have killed her just because they know how good she can be at reading people as the game progresses.

But it's still a possibility that one of those is mafia. For reasons I've already stated, I believe Epignosis is civ, but I'm not sure about DFaraday and Long Con.

One thing to consider: maybe the mafia did not vote for BWT because no mafia was among the lynch candidates on D1 and they abstained from jumping on bandwagontarget11 because they wouldn't raise suspicion on themselves.

Out of the people Silverwolf was talking about, Long Con did not vote for BWT; he voted DFaraday on D1 and on D2, when there was a tie between Bubbles/Bea and DFaraday.

Just thinking out loud here.

So he was wrong about DF, that leaves LC and Ika.

Just want to stop you right there. He was wrong about DF, so that leaves LC, ika, and sig. As in: "Are you and ika both mafia? " Putting yourself in the Polo-analysis doesn't incriminate you, but leaving yourself out is not cool, sig.

read the end of your post i quoted, you said "IF I FLIP CIV"

You know ika, your attitude in this game is very different from EST mafia. You've been much more aggressive. What happened?

Day 3 he was killed that night, I don't think it is a coincidence he suspected Ika and was then killed. I'm starting to believe more and more that Ika is mafia, potentially with Llama as a teammate. I'd like to lynch Ika today.

VOTE IKA

I'll ISO him soon.

besides that not much from Polo some early suss on Dom, but he later reads him as civ. As well as daisy and a slight civ read on Ika and maybe on Epi. This actually adds more weight to my Ika theory. Kill the player who suspected then changed his stance on you. It gets rid of an issue and isn't as likely to lead back to the killer.

That does read well from a solve-Polo's-death perspective, but would ika kill Silverwolf on night 1? I've been giving him the 'prob-Civ' benefit of the doubt for that, despite his grossly suspicious playstyle. :lol: I do not agree with Llama being linked up as ika's teammate, but that's neither here nor there at this time.

@Everyone can you clue me in on Illyria's meta? Is she usually so jokey about serious stuff like lynch votes on her? I've seen a few things one in particular which I'll link and I'm unsure if she is being playful or manipulative. (Not in a bad way, but in like a you might be mafia and I wanna kill you way :P)

I'm putting a vote on Illy right now. I didn't love her responses to being suspected and I'm going to be out for the rest of teh day.

That hurts young man.

She seems like regular Illy to me, and I missed her very much. It's been too long for me to give Civ/baddie meta reads on her... I have enough trouble remembering the usual Civ/baddie meta for anyone, really, most people seem the same to me in either alignment. Neutral read on her right now, and I'm probably biased at the moment, not going after her much because I don't want her dead. As for Illy's description of herself being bad as a baddie... that probably has historical truth, nothing I personally remember, other than the hosting thing at which she is good.

"Meta" is foolishness.

I disagree. Though if you won't talk meta what do you think of her slightly manipulative posts and comments about how fast and crazy the game is.

What do you think of loaded questions?

I think I wouldn't need to have asked a loaded question if someone had given me a meta read/insight instead of saying meta was foolish.

The idea that you "needed to ask a loaded question" in order to get the response you wanted is the thing that strikes me as "slightly manipulative" in this situation.

I'm starting to believe more and more that Ika is mafia, potentially with Llama as a teammate. I'd like to lynch Ika today.

VOTE IKA

if you think im scum with llama why do you vote me instead?

so sig/llama are sucm and daisy porb third

So you think sig is scum because he suspects you, and you think Llama is scum because sig said his name?

Anyways, I'm up to Daisy's rainbow list, and I have to go outside and do stuff. So here I post!

[DrWilgy]

Im getting baddie vibrations from Sig.

I'll vote there.

[Matt]

Yeah sig is totes bad so I'll join him and vote ika.

Derp.

[sig]

Im getting baddie vibrations from Sig.

I'll vote there.

Day 4 and only vibrations? Not a very good reason to vote.

[thellama73]

Yeah I dont think we should rule out Lorab either.

I do. Lynch switch is a civ power. Unless she got lucky with the power steal, I am comfortable ruling her out.

[ika]

Yeah I dont think we should rule out Lorab either.

I do. Lynch switch is a civ power. Unless she got lucky with the power steal, I am comfortable ruling her out.

doubt its any power steal or anything of the sort, i bet the person used their power

[Epignosis]

Yeah I dont think we should rule out Lorab either.

I do. Lynch switch is a civ power. Unless she got lucky with the power steal, I am comfortable ruling her out.

I addressed this idea. I am not ruling out Lorab.

I just asked the hostess a question. I do not think Lorab is Tom, and I think Tom is a ninny.

For those wondering, I asked if conditional qualifiers can be put on a lynch switch ahead of time. The answer was no. Lorab would have had to PM a lynch switch in before Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:33 am EST (her last visit) to switch the lynch to DFaraday, and she would have had to do so when she had only one vote (mine).

Therefore, I do not think Lorab is Tom.

[Marmot]

I could see Sig being bad tbh. Im not that used to his meta, but so far he seems more calculated than usual. Scotty too has this manipulative/calculated vibe. They are not acting the way they did in Turf Wars at least - what do you guys think of this?

I wouldn´t lynch Ika. He is a solid townread for me, as is Epignosis.

He doesn't seem calculated at all to me. Long Con is someone who I would call calculated and that isn't unique to this game.

How would you describe their behavior in Turf Wars? What were their alignments and that game?

[Marmot]

Yeah sig is totes bad so I'll join him and vote ika.

Derp.

Lol, what?

vote Matt

[sig]

I could see Sig being bad tbh. Im not that used to his meta, but so far he seems more calculated than usual. Scotty too has this manipulative/calculated vibe. They are not acting the way they did in Turf Wars at least - what do you guys think of this?

I wouldn´t lynch Ika. He is a solid townread for me, as is Epignosis.

He doesn't seem calculated at all to me. Long Con is someone who I would call calculated and that isn't unique to this game.

How would you describe their behavior in Turf Wars? What were their alignments and that game?

Yeah I'm playing more happy go lucky this game. Also Nero Turf War is a bad example, look what happened to me there. :P
Plus I spent a large portion of the game on defense which I'm not doing here.

[Epignosis]

Additionally, Lorab's focus in her last post was on her own voters rather than the DFaraday voters. Given that DFaraday was good and was Tom's victim, I would expect an almost-lynched Tom to use DFaraday's lynch to look for suspects. Lorab didn't go that route.

Lorab, who among DFaraday's remaining voters is the most suspicious to you?

[thellama73]

Yeah I dont think we should rule out Lorab either.

I do. Lynch switch is a civ power. Unless she got lucky with the power steal, I am comfortable ruling her out.

I addressed this idea. I am not ruling out Lorab.

I just asked the hostess a question. I do not think Lorab is Tom, and I think Tom is a ninny.

For those wondering, I asked if conditional qualifiers can be put on a lynch switch ahead of time. The answer was no. Lorab would have had to PM a lynch switch in before Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:33 am EST (her last visit) to switch the lynch to DFaraday, and she would have had to do so when she had only one vote (mine).

Therefore, I do not think Lorab is Tom.

That's... a pretty good point.

[Matt]

Yeah sig is totes bad so I'll join him and vote ika.

Derp.

Lol, what?

vote Matt

unvote ika

VOTE MARMALICIOUS

[Nerolunar]

I could see Sig being bad tbh. Im not that used to his meta, but so far he seems more calculated than usual. Scotty too has this manipulative/calculated vibe. They are not acting the way they did in Turf Wars at least - what do you guys think of this?

I wouldn´t lynch Ika. He is a solid townread for me, as is Epignosis.

He doesn't seem calculated at all to me. Long Con is someone who I would call calculated and that isn't unique to this game.

How would you describe their behavior in Turf Wars? What were their alignments and that game?

Scotty was way more laid back and Sig was being very messy, although he did receive heat by everyone. They were both civs.

[Nerolunar]

What is Matt doing this game?

[thellama73]

I'm putting my vote on Scotty for now. The more I think about him, the more I suspect he's been flying under the radar this whole time.

[Nerolunar]

I'm putting my vote on Scotty for now. The more I think about him, the more I suspect he's been flying under the radar this whole time.

I feel you.

Scotty

[Marmot]

I'm voting Matt for being dastardly.

[Marmot]

I could see Sig being bad tbh. Im not that used to his meta, but so far he seems more calculated than usual. Scotty too has this manipulative/calculated vibe. They are not acting the way they did in Turf Wars at least - what do you guys think of this?

I wouldn´t lynch Ika. He is a solid townread for me, as is Epignosis.

He doesn't seem calculated at all to me. Long Con is someone who I would call calculated and that isn't unique to this game.

How would you describe their behavior in Turf Wars? What were their alignments and that game?

Scotty was way more laid back and Sig was being very messy, although he did receive heat by everyone. They were both civs.

Alright, let's lynch sig. What are you waiting for?

[Nerolunar]

Im more inclined to lynch Scotty this phase as I find him to be the most suspicious right now. I won´t oppose Lorab either.

[Black Rock]

I could see Sig being bad tbh. Im not that used to his meta, but so far he seems more calculated than usual. Scotty too has this manipulative/calculated vibe. They are not acting the way they did in Turf Wars at least - what do you guys think of this?

I wouldn´t lynch Ika. He is a solid townread for me, as is Epignosis.

He doesn't seem calculated at all to me. Long Con is someone who I would call calculated and that isn't unique to this game.

How would you describe their behavior in Turf Wars? What were their alignments and that game?

Interesting, you would call Long Con calculated this game. I would call him "Mr Put His Foot In Mouth" but that's just my opinion since he's said a few things that pissed me off this game.

[Epignosis]

In a nutshell so far:

Somebody: "Let's lynch so-and-so."
About half of everybody else: "Okay."
Somebody else: "No, let's lynch this other person"
A number of the other half: "Okay."

[ika]

In a nutshell so far:

Somebody: "Let's lynch so-and-so."
About half of everybody else: "Okay."
Somebody else: "No, let's lynch this other person"
A number of the other half: "Okay."

pretty much.....

now help me lynch sig

[DrWilgy]

Im getting baddie vibrations from Sig.

I'll vote there.

Day 4 and only vibrations? Not a very good reason to vote.

Seems like a good reason to me. Sig why is the reason behind your vote more concerning than the fact that it happened?

[LoRab]

Additionally, Lorab's focus in her last post was on her own voters rather than the DFaraday voters. Given that DFaraday was good and was Tom's victim, I would expect an almost-lynched Tom to use DFaraday's lynch to look for suspects. Lorab didn't go that route.

Lorab, who among DFaraday's remaining voters is the most suspicious to you?

Do you have a list handy of who those voters are?

[Epignosis]

Additionally, Lorab's focus in her last post was on her own voters rather than the DFaraday voters. Given that DFaraday was good and was Tom's victim, I would expect an almost-lynched Tom to use DFaraday's lynch to look for suspects. Lorab didn't go that route.

Lorab, who among DFaraday's remaining voters is the most suspicious to you?

Do you have a list handy of who those voters are?

Day 1: Long Con, thellama73, and sig.
Day 2: Nerolunar, sig, Long Con, and Matt