[ENDGAME] The Office Mafia

[S~V~S]

Also I will trust serge on this one.

I have not seen much of this show. I have no idea which role might be bad.

[fingersplints]

We need to learn Michael's role. He's pretty important, Andy will replace him so it's either a powerful role and will be alignment-indicative.

Hey Epignosis, you still have another vote you can cast. Why only choose Dwight who is almost sure to be civ?

When we don't have all the baddie roles revealed you think we should reveal the number 1 civvie? I don't think Michaels a wildcard at all. why would you even think this?

[S~V~S]

OK then I will trust you. Michael would be Steve Carrell?

[fingersplints]

Yup!

That's why I voted Gabe and other. Gabe is basically Jo Bennet's (Mafia) assistant, and an enemy of Andy Bernard (civ), so likely bad.
I think the other baddies will be Jan, Robert California, maybe Charles.

I think SD had a good idea when she brought up the Scranton Strangler being a possible Indy. Not sure if it's right, but it would be a fun choice.

[Serge]

We need to learn Michael's role. He's pretty important, Andy will replace him so it's either a powerful role and will be alignment-indicative.

Hey Epignosis, you still have another vote you can cast. Why only choose Dwight who is almost sure to be civ?

When we don't have all the baddie roles revealed you think we should reveal the number 1 civvie? I don't think Michaels a wildcard at all. why would you even think this?

Look at Holly's role. It is implied that Michael's role is probably unbalanced, which might make him a baddie. Though as you said this could go both ways.

[Serge]

Actually, it says Holly is as weird as Michael. Still, Michael's role might be crazy. But I guess it wouldn't make sense for one to be civ and one to be a baddie. Okay, I'll vote other too.

[Serge]

I think if Michael and Andy both die then the Mafia will win or will control some sort of game mechanic. Maybe Michael's the one picking these polls?

[Epignosis]

We need to learn Michael's role. He's pretty important, Andy will replace him so it's either a powerful role and will be alignment-indicative.

Hey Epignosis, you still have another vote you can cast. Why only choose Dwight who is almost sure to be civ?

I've seen this show one and a half times. I voted Dwight because I know Dwight as the funny fellow with the glasses and because I'm used to voting once.

HOLY SHIT FRONT POST GOLD MINE! SVS's VOTE COULD NOT HAVE BEEN FORCED!

"Jo – Jo is very convincing. She can control someone’s vote each odd night. "

SVS voted on Day 3. Night 2 Jo could not control it.

I don't know any way around that.

Maybe there us a power stealer or something; I am not lying, what happened, happened. Nice to make black/white suppositions like that about roles when we don't know all the roles.

"I don't see" isn't a black or white supposition. It's a perspective based on what can be seen.

I am of the opinion that 3J was bad.

Who among you was going to mount the charge against him?

Required reading.

I'm going hunting for his teammates.

As a player in that game I don't necessarily see the similarities. How do you suppose he died last night then if you think he is mafia?

I thought he was bad though.

You're implying that mafia killed their own last night? Or...what? This makes no sense to me.

I'm implying no such thing. But never you mind.

Here's some nonsense to waste some space:

[DrumBeats]

Oh shit, I just looked back at the old outdated character list and serge is right about Gabe. We need the most votes on him right now and then other needs second most.

[DFaraday]

There could be another role that forces votes on even nights. Or the role is made up a la GoC 2015. I see plenty of ways around it, though I realize I'm starting to sound like I'm in denial.

TL;DR making conclusions based off an incomplete list of roles is foolish.

The game definitely has at least two vote controllers already; I think it's very unlikely that there would be three. Since SVS doesn't meet the criteria for Meredith or Jo, the most plausible explanation is that she was not forced.

As for JJJ, I thought he was civ, and unless the baddies missed their kill or were redirected I don't see why he'd be baddie. But then I always remember WWE Mafia where one team inexplicably decided to NK one of their own team members on Night 2 and then I remember that Mafia can make really weird decisions.

[Turnip Head]

There could be another role that forces votes on even nights. Or the role is made up a la GoC 2015. I see plenty of ways around it, though I realize I'm starting to sound like I'm in denial.

TL;DR making conclusions based off an incomplete list of roles is foolish.

The game definitely has at least two vote controllers already; I think it's very unlikely that there would be three. Since SVS doesn't meet the criteria for Meredith or Jo, the most plausible explanation is that she was not forced.

So you think the most plausible explanation is that SVS lied about being forced, knowing that she would eventually be caught in that lie when the Jo role was revealed.

Okay

[Scotty]

On why SVS voted the way she voted:

German.

Who needs a better theme?

I've read too much Jewish philosophy this past week, mainly of Germans, to want that as a theme. I'm going with jazz. It makes my brain hurt less.

Good point. TH, I was just reading back through your posts.

I voted early becasue I was trying to emphasize the similarity of our experiences to Quin. It is also my experience that when you have no choice but to do a thing, either do it immediately and get it out of the way, or wait until the last second and play stupid. For the reason I stated re Quin, I chose the former. Also I am all about open & honest this game, and playing dumb at the last minute does not seem to work with that.

@Daisy, sometimes TPTB just won;t let you say what you really want to say. And you (or me, lol) is sleepy and does it anyhow.

ALSO,re framing, I am mega mega mega MEGA surprised that no one has tried to imply I was the one to kill Rabbit (or if they did I missed it). I know that when I kill someone when I am bad in order to frame another person, I NEVER bring it up myself. I wait for the civvies to bring it up under those circumstances. And there are a few people I would have expected to bring that point up. When Rabbit died I was waiting for it, and it did not come.

@LoRab, I did not think of it in that context. My husbands BFF is German, and that is my first association.

She chose to follow the same pattern of immediacy that Quin gave her when he force voted. This can be believable.

But this:

Jo – Jo is very convincing. She can control someone’s vote each odd night.

DB does bring up a point that Jo couldn't have used her power on Night 2 to influence this, so the options I see are:
a) SVS is faking the force vote or
b) another civ power forced her to vote for Quin.

How likely is it that we have Merideth, who forces votes of inactives, and another vote forcer on even nights? I suppose that would counteract the mafia role of forcing votes on odd nights, but if that were the case, forcing SVS to vote for Quin is an...odd choice.

I dunno SVS...that role reveal is not exactly damning, but it's not a good look for you.

[Scotty]

I think if Michael and Andy both die then the Mafia will win or will control some sort of game mechanic. Maybe Michael's the one picking these polls?

I think that would be woefully unbalanced if mafia win outright with 2 office managers dying lol. I'm voting michael because I'm just curious, but I will change my other vote Gabe as well.

[Scotty]

There could be another role that forces votes on even nights. Or the role is made up a la GoC 2015. I see plenty of ways around it, though I realize I'm starting to sound like I'm in denial.

TL;DR making conclusions based off an incomplete list of roles is foolish.

In the words of Matt: DERP. I totally missed this post and basically just parroted it.

There could be another role that forces votes on even nights. Or the role is made up a la GoC 2015. I see plenty of ways around it, though I realize I'm starting to sound like I'm in denial.

TL;DR making conclusions based off an incomplete list of roles is foolish.

The game definitely has at least two vote controllers already; I think it's very unlikely that there would be three. Since SVS doesn't meet the criteria for Meredith or Jo, the most plausible explanation is that she was not forced.

So you think the most plausible explanation is that SVS lied about being forced, knowing that she would eventually be caught in that lie when the Jo role was revealed.

Okay

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that if a baddie were making that play, they wouldn't know when the complete list of roles would be revealed. And by that point, maybe the waters would be muddied enough that the damage would have been done. Let's say that there IS a civilian forced on even nights, and forced a BAD SVS to vote Quin, they would know Quin is bad so they could hide behind the premise that a) SVS would never do that as bad and b) there is a civilian vote forcer that forced her, so it's really out of her hands.

I think it's a hard road right now to come back from without complete WIFOM.

[Turnip Head]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that if a baddie were making that play, they wouldn't know when the complete list of roles would be revealed. And by that point, maybe the waters would be muddied enough that the damage would have been done. Let's say that there IS a civilian forced on even nights, and forced a BAD SVS to vote Quin, they would know Quin is bad so they could hide behind the premise that a) SVS would never do that as bad and b) there is a civilian vote forcer that forced her, so it's really out of her hands.

I think it's a hard road right now to come back from without complete WIFOM.

So you think that she was forced by a civilian to vote a certain way, and instead of just doing that and not arousing suspicion, she also forced the lynch to end early, shining the spotlight solely in her direction... while simultaneously hoping that the baddie vote forcer she knows exists will be revealed after the civvie vote forcer she also knows exists, her very life depending on this gamble. Also you're assuming that SVS knew Quin was bad even though he was revealed as a civilian role? Maybe that part was a typo.

I'm so lost as to what people think SVS's motive is here. I guess we think she wants to be lynched.

Someone please walk me through this from point A to point B.

[Turnip Head]

And of course the baddies wouldn't know what order the roles would be revealed. But they don't just throw their hands in the air and say "Welp, I hope this pans out!" They plan their tactics accordingly and try to mitigate the damage.

[Turnip Head]

Honestly, my theory that SVS was set up requires far fewer leaps in logic than the theory that she made countless sloppy moves for next to no benefit.

[Scotty]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that if a baddie were making that play, they wouldn't know when the complete list of roles would be revealed. And by that point, maybe the waters would be muddied enough that the damage would have been done. Let's say that there IS a civilian forced on even nights, and forced a BAD SVS to vote Quin, they would know Quin is bad so they could hide behind the premise that a) SVS would never do that as bad and b) there is a civilian vote forcer that forced her, so it's really out of her hands.

I think it's a hard road right now to come back from without complete WIFOM.

So you think that she was forced by a civilian to vote a certain way, and instead of just doing that and not arousing suspicion, she also forced the lynch to end early, shining the spotlight solely in her direction... while simultaneously hoping that the baddie vote forcer she knows exists will be revealed after the civvie vote forcer she also knows exists, her very life depending on this gamble. Also you're assuming that SVS knew Quin was bad even though he was revealed as a civilian role? Maybe that part was a typo.

I'm so lost as to what people think SVS's motive is here. I guess we think she wants to be lynched.

Someone please walk me through this from point A to point B.

No, I'm saying that a bad SVS would know Quin is good, and it makes sense that mafia were clued into Quin being a good lynch, so they ended it. A civilian vote forcer could have forced her to vote that way, OR mafia may already KNOW there is a civilian vote forcer that would eventually get revealed.
There's a lot of factors here that are overwhelmingly coincidental that make it hard for me to believe this was a fluke at this point.

I'm just saying at this point that there's so much WIFOM that it's turned into grape juice. Bubbly, rancid grape juice.

[Enrique]

I can only say what I would do if I was in this position. For now I'm going to assume there is only one baddie team because it says they kill every night, and most two-mafia setups will rotate the kill. The other variables:

• I am a baddie with the power to end at least one Day phase early.
• I may or may not know Quin's role and the benefit it would bring me by lynching him.
• There were two deaths on Night 2, indicating that Andy has either used his one-time ability or there is another third party killer.
• It is Day 3 in a 30 (?) player game.

Given all this, I would absolutely not vote early, end the Day early, in order to take out 2 civilians. Why?

I can feel reasonably safe that my power will not get taken out at Night, if Andy has no more kills left.

I can feel reasonably confident that Quin will not be killed at Night because I am on the only baddie team.

That means that I can use this ability any time during the game, and am in no rush to sacrifice myself to use it this early.

I can save my power for much later in the game when it will cause a bigger tempo swing, perhaps even sealing a victory for my team before the civilians have a chance to crucify me.

Using this power now indicates that I do not feel the need to use it defensively, ergo no one on my team is in danger of being lynched soon... but this will absolutely change if I use this ability in this way, and now I've wasted my only chance to prevent it.




The only time I would use this power on Day 3 is if I can use it more than once, or if, in using it, I will implicate players who are not on my team.

This is not SVS's first rodeo, and she knows how powerful such an ability is. While lynching Quin eventually is a priority for the baddies, this was the least impactful way they could use this ability, and that's not her style.

I would argue that implicating SVS in the lynch is a much better gambit than SVS implicating herself.

I missed you.

DrumBeats, what drums do you use?

[Enrique]

How about this for something completely different:

I'm not a townie.

I'm independent. I've been approved to say that.

Townies: lynching me does not help you win this game.

Baddies: killing me does not help you win this game.

Just leave me be and I'll play Mafia in peace.

Y'all should call me Prisoner 509378.

Before 80 people ask the same question: "Why did you decide to reveal this now, JJJ?"

~ Because these repeated night phases terrify me. If I am one of those poor people who is slaughtered, I'm screwed.

[juliets]

I still haven't caught up but wanted to make a comment and then vote in the night vote. I think I missed a night vote already because I fell asleep early.

My thinking runs similarly to Turnip Head about SVS. Daisy in one of her posts explained how she didn't see SVS as boldly going down a road like this if she's bad. I agree with that having been bad with her before and having been part of the group she touched as John Cavil. I can make sense of everything except this latest thing about Jo. Does it make sense to have someone force a vote on even and odd nights, and on days where they missed voting altogether? I don't know - I suppose it's possible just not probable. So that leaves me with more time to think about SVS - I'm glad we're not voting today or tomorrow though of course I am not happy we got a day taken from us. I don't have any other suspicions yet which is normal for me at this stage of the game given I'm not caught up.

I'm going to vote Gabe and Others.

Unfortunately I will not be in the thread tomorrow because we are traveling once again. My brother-in-law broke his back and will have to have someone take care of him while he's recuperating. I should be fine once we get there its just I can't post while we travel.

[Scotty]

I can only say what I would do if I was in this position. For now I'm going to assume there is only one baddie team because it says they kill every night, and most two-mafia setups will rotate the kill. The other variables:

• I am a baddie with the power to end at least one Day phase early.
• I may or may not know Quin's role and the benefit it would bring me by lynching him.
• There were two deaths on Night 2, indicating that Andy has either used his one-time ability or there is another third party killer.
• It is Day 3 in a 30 (?) player game.

Given all this, I would absolutely not vote early, end the Day early, in order to take out 2 civilians. Why?

I can feel reasonably safe that my power will not get taken out at Night, if Andy has no more kills left.

I can feel reasonably confident that Quin will not be killed at Night because I am on the only baddie team.

That means that I can use this ability any time during the game, and am in no rush to sacrifice myself to use it this early.

I can save my power for much later in the game when it will cause a bigger tempo swing, perhaps even sealing a victory for my team before the civilians have a chance to crucify me.

Using this power now indicates that I do not feel the need to use it defensively, ergo no one on my team is in danger of being lynched soon... but this will absolutely change if I use this ability in this way, and now I've wasted my only chance to prevent it.




The only time I would use this power on Day 3 is if I can use it more than once, or if, in using it, I will implicate players who are not on my team.

This is not SVS's first rodeo, and she knows how powerful such an ability is. While lynching Quin eventually is a priority for the baddies, this was the least impactful way they could use this ability, and that's not her style.

I would argue that implicating SVS in the lynch is a much better gambit than SVS implicating herself.

I missed you.

DrumBeats, what drums do you use?

Hello Mr. I Haven't Posted Since Tuesday.

What do you think of...anything?

[Scotty]

Oh I have a request for tomorrow's day cycle:

Can we play "Hold the Vote" and not vote for someone immediately? That'd be greaaaaaaat.

[Enrique]

Holly – Holly is just as weird as Michael, but more balanced. If she is killed, two days will follow. If she is lynched, two nights will follow.

I know I am way behind and perhaps this has already been said, but judging from that role, I would call Holly a civ. why are we calling her bad?

Like, can no one else think that maybe SVS put in her vote, and there was a baddie around who ended the day early just to set up SVS in case Quin came back good?

Has that crossed no one's mind? Deerp.

"In case Quin came back good?" You're bad, aren't you Matt? If the baddies ended the day on Quin who was civ, then I'm sure they knew how Quin would flip, seeing as how she was not on their team.

Lol. I see the irony btw of me sticking up for SVS against very new and recent accusations that I should give her time to answer herself.

-1 to Matt

Yeah, that was going to be my next thought, why give her answers, let her defend herself. Is it because you know how she will flip and you are trying to buy some civ cred?

Does anyone else want to give SVS the benefit of the doubt here? I mean, you don't think she'd be a little more subtle about outright killing a civilian?

I'd like to keep the discussion going on more than her, because I'm not sold she is responsible.

But I am looking at JJJ and Drumbeats for immediately jumping on her as 100% bad.

So much this. For two guys who analyze the shit out of everything and everyone, you jumped to quick and certain conclusions here.

On reading further I see now that Jay did come the conclusion based on analysis. I'm just not sure I agree with the conclusion, but I can see where his thinking is coming from, consider my suspicion slightly lessened.

I did not mean to use the word forcer; what I meant to say was day ender. That was a poor choice of words and I am half awake so not sure why I used that word.

I was not inclined to suspect you until this post. Civs don't usually feel that concerned about their choice of words as much as baddies do, are you afraid you let something slip you shouldn't have?

SVS's role could might as well be a townie role. Erin's role to stop a lynch is almost the opposite of this role.

SVS, do you deny the allegations?

I deny them categorically. I am not on any team. I did not knowingly have anything to do with Quins death. Doing what I did would be the stupidest move in the world on my part if I knew what was going to happen.

Would ANY of you have done that knowingly?

But I am okay with getting lynched if need be. I think the town could gain some benefit from it.

I find this mildly concerning as well, everyone is on a team unless they are independent, are you claiming independent? This looks a bit like an attempt to cheat an LD. I would only say mildly concerning though because it is followed by another statement that would seem less likely to be able to cheat an LD...

I am appalled that anyone thinks I am enough of an idiot to do this. I mean, I can be an idiot, but I am a player whose best use to a bad team is via manipulation & talking in thread, not out of self sacrifice. But whatevs, if you want to lynch me Drum, go for it. You will be dissappointed if you really expect me to flip bad.

Also, re the use of the word "forced"; has it occurred to you that I am not allowed to directly say I was targeted?

What other factual checkable statement would you like me to make?

Linki @Faraday, what do you think of my factual remarks? We have 2 nights in a row for Pam to check me. What factual questions would you like to ask me?

Here is the sticking point for me, this kind of play would be out of character for SVS. She is super careful about not revealing her identity through times she posts and who might see her and so forth. In BSG she would barely ever post as Cavil in our chat thread because she knew mods can see who is online, even when invisible. We don't use it to our advantage, but she knew I could see it so rather than risk possibly giving anything away, she rarely even posted until she knew I was on her team. And SVS is not one to go against her meta, especially where caution is concerned. I know this is something that people can change up, but I don't see this being something she would ever WANT to change up for any reason. She is fairly risk averse and doesn't sacrifice a teammate unless she has to. I can't reconcile that to the theory put forward here.

Another thought:

~ The advantage gained for the baddies in this situation is diminished some if there are multiple baddie teams (assuming the Syndicate norm for alternating night kills is maintained). The baddies in general enjoy an advantage, but the individual teams not as much. Indeed they might threaten one another additionally in this situation. I think the leetic/Elohcin kills might be a sign of multiple baddie teams -- I thought they both leaned toward the side of badness, perhaps even as team mates.

I disagree, I think we have a baddie team and a SK (probably Scranton Strangler)

I think DB jumping on SVS right out of the gate is opportunism. I acknowledge that literally anyone could have done it, but his doing so and his continual push that she is definitely bad has me thinking the opposite.

I'll let DB answer to the accusation of opportunism, as well as the other things you've asserted. I'll propose a separate point:

I see culture clash. A few Syndicateers see this and their instinctive reaction is "why the eff would a baddie ever do this?"

That's not my reaction at all. I was brought up elsewhere. DB was brought up elsewhere, and Bulbagarden's games are a lot more like RYM's than they are like The Syndicate's. I think that breeds a certain type of player base, and where he comes from I bet this stuff isn't so absurd as some people here seem to think it is. On RYM this wouldn't even be a surprising gambit, it'd be ordinary.

I can understand the benefit and acknowledge the possibility in theory, I can't see it being something SVS would ever do though. She isn't from RYM Or Bulbagarden, andante is something that comes very difficult to SVS especially when they are deeply held ideas like her cautious tendencies.

Conclusion to my massive post:
I don't suspect SVS
I do suspect Matt
I don't suspect Drumbeats or Jay atm.

Getting on a plane now, voting Christmas.

This post feels concerningly diplomatic. Everyone, you're right but you're wrong. I don't suspect you, but I could. This is a problem, but not for me. That and the use cliches such as "civs don't care about their words!" and "everyone is on a team" makes me worried that this post is more about itself than it is about any of the people being discussed. It's just... predictable and vapid.

[a2thezebra]

[Enrique]

Goodbye JJJ

JJJ has been killed.
It is now Night 3.2. You have 24 hours to get your PMs in.

I mean, RIP.

[Enrique]

How about this for something completely different:

I'm not a townie.

I'm independent. I've been approved to say that.

Townies: lynching me does not help you win this game.

Baddies: killing me does not help you win this game.

Just leave me be and I'll play Mafia in peace.

Y'all should call me Prisoner 509378.

Before 80 people ask the same question: "Why did you decide to reveal this now, JJJ?"

~ Because these repeated night phases terrify me. If I am one of those poor people who is slaughtered, I'm screwed.

Well that's fun. I've seen first-hand in the game I hosted how helpful you can be to the town as an independent, so I'm comfortable leaving you alone for now. Hopefully more roles will become available and we can piece together what you are in the coming nights. After we lynch a few mafia, I'm going to entertain lynching you.

@ linki Matt - Lol @ Baseless. You have both provided plenty of reason for me to believe you're a baddie duo. I don't think voting Christmas is relevant at all to you and Scotty being buddies, but I'm still pretty sure you are.

Whyfore again? Just the bullet points please. I'm sorry - I'm a crap player who has limited time and honestly won't go back and reread. I know it's a thing I can't remember the deets. If it peaks my interest I will dig in more.

linki- stuff blowing up and I still am prolly 3 pages behind. I'm terminally in crackberry mode. lol.

Gonna try to speed this before update in case I'm dead.

- Day 0/1 Matt focusses on FS over Scotty despite suspecting both for same thing.

- Day 1 Matt considers voting for Goldy due to a suspicion on Scotty, rather than just voting Scotty.

- Day 2 Scotty questions if Matt has been silenced way early in the day (though he wasn't in the end so this one wasn't that big)

Post more in a sec if I'm alive, I think it's about update time and wanted to get this started.

- Day 2 I was trying to make a Scotty push, and Matt tossed out a throwaway vote on fingersplints. The night after, he began to suggest a Scotty lynch the following day. Looks like distancing imo, because why would Matt not be willing to vote Scotty with me Day 2 if the suspicion was legitimate?

- A minor one, but both players jumped to SVS's defense incredibly fast.

Some of this case is more of individual reads on them as well that make me think each is mafia by themselves too.

- Matt tried to dispel my whole argument about his willingness to vote Goldy over being suspicious of Scotty as a lie due to me using the word "likely" instead of the actual word "maybe". Discrediting the argument based on one word rather than answering it.

- Scotty has placed nothing but inactive player votes, despite his early-game comment of wanting to learn more based on how our lynches flip. First vote was for Goldy, who had zero posts, and his second vote was for leetic, who had in the single digits. He then after leetic died, assumed leetic was mafia, and was confident enough to build a case on me based upon an assumption of an inactive player's allegiance post death, so basically a roll of a dice.

This is all very good. Scotty focusing on inactive players is completely in character for him, but I also thought the assumption that leetic was bad was a huge stretch and definitely not something you can base a whole different case on.

My experience with Matt is he's zany but he's also usually bad. Now watch him stubbornly defend his votes and never come back to Scotty again.

[Enrique]

I am of the opinion that 3J was bad.

Who among you was going to mount the charge against him?

Required reading.

I'm going hunting for his teammates.

As a player in that game I don't necessarily see the similarities. How do you suppose he died last night then if you think he is mafia?

I thought he was bad though.

lol

I didn't feel good about him but I wouldn't go as far as to assume he *had to be* bad. He died last night so yeah that's a pretty good look for him I'd think.

[Enrique]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that if a baddie were making that play, they wouldn't know when the complete list of roles would be revealed. And by that point, maybe the waters would be muddied enough that the damage would have been done. Let's say that there IS a civilian forced on even nights, and forced a BAD SVS to vote Quin, they would know Quin is bad so they could hide behind the premise that a) SVS would never do that as bad and b) there is a civilian vote forcer that forced her, so it's really out of her hands.

I think it's a hard road right now to come back from without complete WIFOM.

So you think that she was forced by a civilian to vote a certain way, and instead of just doing that and not arousing suspicion, she also forced the lynch to end early, shining the spotlight solely in her direction... while simultaneously hoping that the baddie vote forcer she knows exists will be revealed after the civvie vote forcer she also knows exists, her very life depending on this gamble. Also you're assuming that SVS knew Quin was bad even though he was revealed as a civilian role? Maybe that part was a typo.

I'm so lost as to what people think SVS's motive is here. I guess we think she wants to be lynched.

Someone please walk me through this from point A to point B.

The way I see it, SVS trying to pull this off would be ridiculous, because it'd be so much easier to just... you know... not do it.

[Enrique]

I can only say what I would do if I was in this position. For now I'm going to assume there is only one baddie team because it says they kill every night, and most two-mafia setups will rotate the kill. The other variables:

• I am a baddie with the power to end at least one Day phase early.
• I may or may not know Quin's role and the benefit it would bring me by lynching him.
• There were two deaths on Night 2, indicating that Andy has either used his one-time ability or there is another third party killer.
• It is Day 3 in a 30 (?) player game.

Given all this, I would absolutely not vote early, end the Day early, in order to take out 2 civilians. Why?

I can feel reasonably safe that my power will not get taken out at Night, if Andy has no more kills left.

I can feel reasonably confident that Quin will not be killed at Night because I am on the only baddie team.

That means that I can use this ability any time during the game, and am in no rush to sacrifice myself to use it this early.

I can save my power for much later in the game when it will cause a bigger tempo swing, perhaps even sealing a victory for my team before the civilians have a chance to crucify me.

Using this power now indicates that I do not feel the need to use it defensively, ergo no one on my team is in danger of being lynched soon... but this will absolutely change if I use this ability in this way, and now I've wasted my only chance to prevent it.




The only time I would use this power on Day 3 is if I can use it more than once, or if, in using it, I will implicate players who are not on my team.

This is not SVS's first rodeo, and she knows how powerful such an ability is. While lynching Quin eventually is a priority for the baddies, this was the least impactful way they could use this ability, and that's not her style.

I would argue that implicating SVS in the lynch is a much better gambit than SVS implicating herself.

I missed you.

DrumBeats, what drums do you use?

Hello Mr. I Haven't Posted Since Tuesday.

What do you think of...anything?

I have opinions.

I know Michael and Dwight are like, the main characters, so likely civ. Who are Gabe and Ryan and why would they be bad?

[Turnip Head]

The way I see it, SVS trying to pull this off would be ridiculous, because it'd be so much easier to just... you know... not do it.

Thank you for saying so succinctly what it took me like 20 posts to say

[Turnip Head]

Gabe was a corporate employee, and corporate is the most likely group for the baddies. Ryan is the Fire Guy, and he started the fire. Probably a civ, though he did work at corporate for a while.

[LoRab]

Catching up. Headache. But trying to get through and ponder everything.

I think SVS is more than capable of a crazy gambit, but why I don't think she did this in this particular case is that it wouldn't make any sense for her to post about it. It would be far more strategic to just quietly vote without posting before ending day. And then post about it later. It just doesn't seem like SVS to play this out like she's being accused of.

[LoRab]

I don't work that way DB. I work backwards.

tbh, I usually need a few days on SVS and you see I keep finding scenarios where she could still be bad, but honestly, if I use Occum, she reads and feels more civ to me than most.

I'm sad Wilgy died now that I know he was the tracker. Go back and look at my answer and ask yourself, would I have been talking about anyone but SVS? Or maybe Wabbit and Epi?

I felt good about JJ before he claimed/notclaimed indi. JJ - the students of Lorab are watching you. I currently see no reason to not keep him around. But I will flip a bitch as fast as you if make me think you are not working with the civs. As long as he's helpful he's ok. There will - if he lives - a long enough time where his survivial won't be ok. I reserve the right to lynch him when it's time for the potential indy to go. I think deep in his heart he is a civ leaning indy. I'm ok with letting him prove me right or wrong.

I trust a few others. Reading my posts will help you figure out who.

I'd like to hear more from indi and lorab and splintsy just cuz it's all us!! And come on -this is a fun time!!!

sig's still playing right? And he's the low poster I *remember* is playing. I"d like to hear from anyone who has less posts than sig.

linki - what the fucking fuck. Ok - more backtracking.

Other than the fact that "students of LoRab" made me guffaw, I'm confused by this post. You speak as if JJJ is still alive, even though this came after the night post (and I know you post as you catch up, so that's fine), but then you talk about the fact that he might not make. And i don't think you ever went back to correct yourself on him not surviving the night. This almost reads as if you knew he was going to die.

[DrumBeats]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that if a baddie were making that play, they wouldn't know when the complete list of roles would be revealed. And by that point, maybe the waters would be muddied enough that the damage would have been done. Let's say that there IS a civilian forced on even nights, and forced a BAD SVS to vote Quin, they would know Quin is bad so they could hide behind the premise that a) SVS would never do that as bad and b) there is a civilian vote forcer that forced her, so it's really out of her hands.

I think it's a hard road right now to come back from without complete WIFOM.

So you think that she was forced by a civilian to vote a certain way, and instead of just doing that and not arousing suspicion, she also forced the lynch to end early, shining the spotlight solely in her direction... while simultaneously hoping that the baddie vote forcer she knows exists will be revealed after the civvie vote forcer she also knows exists, her very life depending on this gamble. Also you're assuming that SVS knew Quin was bad even though he was revealed as a civilian role? Maybe that part was a typo.

I'm so lost as to what people think SVS's motive is here. I guess we think she wants to be lynched.

Someone please walk me through this from point A to point B.

The logic is that the absolute worst case scenario for the move is a 3 civilian to one mafia trade-off. The absolute worst case is still not a bad move, it's a mediocre one. Then factor in the likelihood of Jo's role being the one that is revealed. It was relatively unlikely that of all the roles available, hers would be revealed in these two night phases. And even then, they can pull the "there could be another vote forcer." There are so many ways for the SVS to get off clean here that it was relatively likely that we wouldn't lynch her for this, and even if we did, SVS would take down three civilians with her. It is a very logically sound move for the scum.

[Turnip Head]

Catching up. Headache. But trying to get through and ponder everything.

I think SVS is more than capable of a crazy gambit, but why I don't think she did this in this particular case is that it wouldn't make any sense for her to post about it. It would be far more strategic to just quietly vote without posting before ending day. And then post about it later. It just doesn't seem like SVS to play this out like she's being accused of.

That's... oddly specific. And I'm not sure I agree that it would be any more strategic.

[LoRab]

Catching up. Headache. But trying to get through and ponder everything.

I think SVS is more than capable of a crazy gambit, but why I don't think she did this in this particular case is that it wouldn't make any sense for her to post about it. It would be far more strategic to just quietly vote without posting before ending day. And then post about it later. It just doesn't seem like SVS to play this out like she's being accused of.

That's... oddly specific. And I'm not sure I agree that it would be any more strategic.

It was what I thought when I read through that section. Why announce that you're voting if you're trying to be sneaky and end the lynch? Maybe I'm wrong that it would be any more strategic. I still don't think it's a scenario that SVS would play out either way.

[DrumBeats]

HOLY SHIT FRONT POST GOLD MINE! SVS's VOTE COULD NOT HAVE BEEN FORCED!

"Jo – Jo is very convincing. She can control someone’s vote each odd night. "

SVS voted on Day 3. Night 2 Jo could not control it.

I don't know any way around that.

Maybe there us a power stealer or something; I am not lying, what happened, happened. Nice to make black/white suppositions like that about roles when we don't know all the roles.

At this point, I am only a distraction. All of you guys will get to target others when I am gone, Lol.

I will give a list of reads before night end.

A power stealer still wouldn't explain anything though, because there is no revealed power that could force your vote on an an even night. The only possible role to explain right now would be an even night vote forcer.

A list of reads would be wonderful though, thank you.

[DrumBeats]

On why SVS voted the way she voted:

German.

Who needs a better theme?

I've read too much Jewish philosophy this past week, mainly of Germans, to want that as a theme. I'm going with jazz. It makes my brain hurt less.

Good point. TH, I was just reading back through your posts.

I voted early becasue I was trying to emphasize the similarity of our experiences to Quin. It is also my experience that when you have no choice but to do a thing, either do it immediately and get it out of the way, or wait until the last second and play stupid. For the reason I stated re Quin, I chose the former. Also I am all about open & honest this game, and playing dumb at the last minute does not seem to work with that.

@Daisy, sometimes TPTB just won;t let you say what you really want to say. And you (or me, lol) is sleepy and does it anyhow.

ALSO,re framing, I am mega mega mega MEGA surprised that no one has tried to imply I was the one to kill Rabbit (or if they did I missed it). I know that when I kill someone when I am bad in order to frame another person, I NEVER bring it up myself. I wait for the civvies to bring it up under those circumstances. And there are a few people I would have expected to bring that point up. When Rabbit died I was waiting for it, and it did not come.

@LoRab, I did not think of it in that context. My husbands BFF is German, and that is my first association.

She chose to follow the same pattern of immediacy that Quin gave her when he force voted. This can be believable.

But this:

Jo – Jo is very convincing. She can control someone’s vote each odd night.

DB does bring up a point that Jo couldn't have used her power on Night 2 to influence this, so the options I see are:
a) SVS is faking the force vote or
b) another civ power forced her to vote for Quin.

How likely is it that we have Merideth, who forces votes of inactives, and another vote forcer on even nights? I suppose that would counteract the mafia role of forcing votes on odd nights, but if that were the case, forcing SVS to vote for Quin is an...odd choice.

I dunno SVS...that role reveal is not exactly damning, but it's not a good look for you.

Why would it have to be a civ power?

[Turnip Head]

The logic is that the absolute worst case scenario for the move is a 3 civilian to one mafia trade-off. The absolute worst case is still not a bad move, it's a mediocre one. Then factor in the likelihood of Jo's role being the one that is revealed. It was relatively unlikely that of all the roles available, hers would be revealed in these two night phases. And even then, they can pull the "there could be another vote forcer." There are so many ways for the SVS to get off clean here that it was relatively likely that we wouldn't lynch her for this, and even if we did, SVS would take down three civilians with her. It is a very logically sound move for the scum.

I could not disagree more. People have been lynched for much less than this. It's literally the first thing everybody thought of when Quin got lynched. "Relatively likely that we wouldn't lynch her for this" doesn't hold water for me.

Mafia could have 3-for-1'd at any point in the game. Why rush to do it on a night where Jo's power isn't active, unraveling SVS's alibi? Why not wait one more day? They knew the Jo role existed and would be revealed eventually... pretending that SVS's vote was forced by the baddies would work a whole lot better on Day 4.

[DrumBeats]

I can only say what I would do if I was in this position. For now I'm going to assume there is only one baddie team because it says they kill every night, and most two-mafia setups will rotate the kill. The other variables:

• I am a baddie with the power to end at least one Day phase early.
• I may or may not know Quin's role and the benefit it would bring me by lynching him.
• There were two deaths on Night 2, indicating that Andy has either used his one-time ability or there is another third party killer.
• It is Day 3 in a 30 (?) player game.

Given all this, I would absolutely not vote early, end the Day early, in order to take out 2 civilians. Why?

I can feel reasonably safe that my power will not get taken out at Night, if Andy has no more kills left.

I can feel reasonably confident that Quin will not be killed at Night because I am on the only baddie team.

That means that I can use this ability any time during the game, and am in no rush to sacrifice myself to use it this early.

I can save my power for much later in the game when it will cause a bigger tempo swing, perhaps even sealing a victory for my team before the civilians have a chance to crucify me.

Using this power now indicates that I do not feel the need to use it defensively, ergo no one on my team is in danger of being lynched soon... but this will absolutely change if I use this ability in this way, and now I've wasted my only chance to prevent it.




The only time I would use this power on Day 3 is if I can use it more than once, or if, in using it, I will implicate players who are not on my team.

This is not SVS's first rodeo, and she knows how powerful such an ability is. While lynching Quin eventually is a priority for the baddies, this was the least impactful way they could use this ability, and that's not her style.

I would argue that implicating SVS in the lynch is a much better gambit than SVS implicating herself.

I missed you.

DrumBeats, what drums do you use?

Snare

[DrumBeats]

I like Enrique's analysis of Spacedaisy.

Catching up. Headache. But trying to get through and ponder everything.

I think SVS is more than capable of a crazy gambit, but why I don't think she did this in this particular case is that it wouldn't make any sense for her to post about it. It would be far more strategic to just quietly vote without posting before ending day. And then post about it later. It just doesn't seem like SVS to play this out like she's being accused of.

This would actually be the worst approach to this. Think about it, the day ends early and Quin dies, but you never saw anybody vote. What's the first thing you do? Check the poll. Then you see SVS's vote. Wouldn't that look much shadier than SVS's paralleling Quin's vote?

[DrumBeats]

The logic is that the absolute worst case scenario for the move is a 3 civilian to one mafia trade-off. The absolute worst case is still not a bad move, it's a mediocre one. Then factor in the likelihood of Jo's role being the one that is revealed. It was relatively unlikely that of all the roles available, hers would be revealed in these two night phases. And even then, they can pull the "there could be another vote forcer." There are so many ways for the SVS to get off clean here that it was relatively likely that we wouldn't lynch her for this, and even if we did, SVS would take down three civilians with her. It is a very logically sound move for the scum.

I could not disagree more. People have been lynched for much less than this. It's literally the first thing everybody thought of when Quin got lynched. "Relatively likely that we wouldn't lynch her for this" doesn't hold water for me.

Mafia could have 3-for-1'd at any point in the game. Why rush to do it on a night where Jo's power isn't active, unraveling SVS's alibi? Why not wait one more day? They knew the Jo role existed and would be revealed eventually... pretending that SVS's vote was forced by the baddies would work a whole lot better on Day 4.

They have, but people have also been let off the hook for much less than this. The fact that even after Jo's role revealed itself we are still divided as a town over this, and before that it was basically me and one or two others wanting to lynch SVS, just shows how strong of a move this was.

Who do you recommend us to lynch tomorrow?

[Turnip Head]

I'm looking at Matt mainly. Still waiting to see more from Epignosis.

[Epignosis]

I'm looking at Matt mainly. Still waiting to see more from Epignosis.

Pervert.

[a2thezebra]

[a2thezebra]

Who is that in your profile pic Turnip?

[Epignosis]

Who is that in your profile pic Turnip?

Spoiler: show

The victim of a pervert.

[DrWilgy]

I'm looking at Matt mainly. Still waiting to see more from Epignosis.

Pervert.

( )

[Turnip Head]

Who is that in your profile pic Turnip?

It's Pennsatucky from Orange is the New Black. The actress is Taryn Manning.