RED vs. BLUE: Endgame

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@sloon - I don't think inh has been coming from the place of a villain. I hope that he comes back and helps catch the sk, because from my perspective the numbers are on the towns side. Lynching inh changes that, from my perspective.

Here's my concern:

You're not in civilian BTSC with INH. He made that clear himself.

You don't have an alignment check on him, since you were thinking about Quin 2.0 having that power.

I'm brought to assume it's purely a read then, and it's one I don't really understand.

[Golden]

Jay, 1+1=3

[Golden]

Perhaps you should think about potential motivations for Maverick players found Maverick things. I can't explain epi killing wilgy, either.

[Sloonei]

When I read inh I am able to see a townie who has a very severe case of Tunnelitis. I think I'll move my vote to the marmot and see how that feels.

[Golden]

Anyway, There is literally no answer to your post within the rules other than 'it's just a read', but people can do with it what they want... I won't be voting for inh today.

[Marmot]

Let's talk about why you are voting for me. Is it just because I've made a couple remarks about Ted Cruz?

I also haven't read you very much otherwise and felt like moving my vote around.

I found it curious that you suggested Ted Cruz is the serial killer twice now. The first time was semi-prompted, but the second time was unprompted.

[Sloonei]

Let's talk about why you are voting for me. Is it just because I've made a couple remarks about Ted Cruz?

I also haven't read you very much otherwise and felt like moving my vote around.

I found it curious that you suggested Ted Cruz is the serial killer twice now. The first time was semi-prompted, but the second time was unprompted.

It's a funny joke, I think.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Serial killer hunt, anyone?

Quin's last post.

[Golden]

I think there is value in looking at slooneis theorised sk kills and considering who they have value for.

Might be less relevant if it's actually trump hunting but worth a look.

Meeting time.

[Sloonei]

I'm not willing to make the assumption that there is an SK. Every player that has been nightkilled has been a vig candidate to an extent.

But like you, I'm more interested in lynching mafia first and foremost.

"I'm not so sure there is a serial killer...
4 minutes later:

As for inh being a SK candidate, he is prime SK material for sure. But I'm not willing to lynch him today.

"But INH makes sense as a serial killer"
Later that night:

This serial killer talk is just a distraction from the main course: MAFIA!

The heat goes on.

"Let's stop trying to catch the serial killer."

[Sloonei]

I think there is value in looking at slooneis theorised sk kills and considering who they have value for.

Might be less relevant if it's actually trump hunting but worth a look.

Meeting time.

I am operating under the assumption that it is Trump hunting.

[Sloonei]

So my question is this: If we assume the serial killer wants to kill Trump, and Trump is a townie, the serial killer would be someone who had been town reading Boomslang, Rico, and Epi at the times of their deaths. Maybe.

Metalmarsh made little to no mention of Boomslang or Rico around their deaths. He had Epi as green on a late rainbow list.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm not willing to make the assumption that there is an SK. Every player that has been nightkilled has been a vig candidate to an extent.

But like you, I'm more interested in lynching mafia first and foremost.

"I'm not so sure there is a serial killer...
4 minutes later:

As for inh being a SK candidate, he is prime SK material for sure. But I'm not willing to lynch him today.

"But INH makes sense as a serial killer"
Later that night:

This serial killer talk is just a distraction from the main course: MAFIA!

The heat goes on.

"Let's stop trying to catch the serial killer."

I'm intrigued.

To be fair, the second post is an expansion of the first, in which he is answering my question. Still, the language "he is prime SK material for sure" inspires a .

[Marmot]

As for inh being a SK candidate, he is prime SK material for sure. But I'm not willing to lynch him today.

This is just generally speaking, not because of what inh has done in this game. :P

Linki: this^

I already explained to you the thought behind that post Jay.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

As for inh being a SK candidate, he is prime SK material for sure. But I'm not willing to lynch him today.

This is just generally speaking, not because of what inh has done in this game. :P

Linki: this^

I already explained to you the thought behind that post Jay.

I don't understand the explanation, now that we're here looking at it again. What about INH, generally speaking and not because of what he has done in this game, makes him prime SK material?

[Sloonei]

As for inh being a SK candidate, he is prime SK material for sure. But I'm not willing to lynch him today.

This is just generally speaking, not because of what inh has done in this game. :P

Linki: this^

I already explained to you the thought behind that post Jay.

In the first post it looks very much like you are at least softly supporting the theory. In the second post, it looks like you are backtracking.

[Sloonei]

So my question is this: If we assume the serial killer wants to kill Trump, and Trump is a townie, the serial killer would be someone who had been town reading Boomslang, Rico, and Epi at the times of their deaths. Maybe.

Metalmarsh made little to no mention of Boomslang or Rico around their deaths. He had Epi as green on a late rainbow list.

This isn't a question. I never asked a question. Do people agree with this premise? And if so, who might that implicate?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

So my question is this: If we assume the serial killer wants to kill Trump, and Trump is a townie, the serial killer would be someone who had been town reading Boomslang, Rico, and Epi at the times of their deaths. Maybe.

Metalmarsh made little to no mention of Boomslang or Rico around their deaths. He had Epi as green on a late rainbow list.

This isn't a question. I never asked a question. Do people agree with this premise? And if so, who might that implicate?

It seems a good enough theory if you're correct about how the kills went down. G-Man's narratives do make it sound as though someone is specifically trying to off Trump. I'd need to look back for the deets.

I know when Boomslang died he was viewed by at least a couple people with some suspicion, given that his vote for leetic was in opposition to Scotty's and perhaps opportunistic against the low-content dude. By the time Rico died, I'm not sure anyone really suspected him beyond maybe Wilgy 2.0, so it's all fair game there. Epignosis was seen as more town than not by most I think, though the sparkle was fading fast as numbers declined.

[Sloonei]

An extension of the theory is that the serial killer would not just be trying to kill a townie every night, but a specific townie. They'd be killing someone who exhibits Trump-like behavior to them. I do not know exactly what that would mean.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

An extension of the theory is that the serial killer would not just be trying to kill a townie every night, but a specific townie. They'd be killing someone who exhibits Trump-like behavior to them. I do not know exactly what that would mean.

I'm not sure there's any consistent thread between Boomslang, Rico, and Epignosis to draw. Rico and Epi were both unamused by PoE I guess.

[Quin]

I don't think that Donald Trump is the serial killer, based on the whole context of the lynch posts. It seems to me that neither he or Hilary Clinton are roles, they're just leading the charge and we're their subordinates.

Ted Cruz would make sense to be the SK, just because of memes.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't think that Donald Trump is the serial killer, based on the whole context of the lynch posts. It seems to me that neither he or Hilary Clinton are roles, they're just leading the charge and we're their subordinates.

Ted Cruz would make sense to be the SK, just because of memes.

Sloonei means the serial killer is trying to kill Donald Trump specifically, not that the killer is Trump.

[Quin]

The odds of Quin being the SK aren't very high, and the odds of him being mafia are extremely slim considering they're likely dead. Yet he's tunneled on me the last day and a half.

Yeah, that's a parallel I'm conscious of. Quin should share his current read on Marmot.

This will be brief, I can't concentrate on my computer for long owing to the pain of the 2nd degree burns on my face.

A lot of my case kind of fell apart, but I could still stick his Day 2 actions on him as a case against him being a SK. I'm not so gung-ho about lynching him specifically anymore.

linki: I doubt that's the case either, I don't think Donald Trump is even a role tbfh.

[Sloonei]

Why is Trump not a role?

[Quin]

Why is Trump not a role?

Because Hilary isn't (unless there actually is a fourth baddie, but I really doubt it), and they're the spearheads of each faction.

[Sloonei]

Why is Trump not a role?

Because Hilary isn't (unless there actually is a fourth baddie, but I really doubt it), and they're the spearheads of each faction.

But Trump is at the center of the whole game while Hillary isn't mentioned anywhere in the flavor text. Trump is, and G-man just told us that the flavor posts are intended to "contain game-relevant information". In these posts he tells us that we are all members of Trump's campaign team, and that someone is in here trying to kill Trump himself. To me this suggests that it may not be a straightforward Serial Killer, but an assassin trying to kill one target over the others. Or the flavor text is just flavor text; but G-man just told us it is not. In all of the write ups it is mentioned that Trump was the intended target of the serial killer but other figures "got in the way". Perhaps there is a serial killer that wins the game when they kill the player who has the role of Donald Trump.

[Quin]

Why is Trump not a role?

Because Hilary isn't (unless there actually is a fourth baddie, but I really doubt it), and they're the spearheads of each faction.

But Trump is at the center of the whole game while Hillary isn't mentioned anywhere in the flavor text. Trump is, and G-man just told us that the flavor posts are intended to "contain game-relevant information". In these posts he tells us that we are all members of Trump's campaign team, and that someone is in here trying to kill Trump himself. To me this suggests that it may not be a straightforward Serial Killer, but an assassin trying to kill one target over the others. Or the flavor text is just flavor text; but G-man just told us it is not. In all of the write ups it is mentioned that Trump was the intended target of the serial killer but other figures "got in the way". Perhaps there is a serial killer that wins the game when they kill the player who has the role of Donald Trump.

Okay. I checked. Hillary was mentioned a few times, just nothing more than just being mentioned.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm watchinh handegg tonight. I'm warming to an MM vote.

[Sloonei]

I'm watchinh handegg tonight. I'm warming to an MM vote.

What strikes you as warm about it?

[Sloonei]

Why is Trump not a role?

Because Hilary isn't (unless there actually is a fourth baddie, but I really doubt it), and they're the spearheads of each faction.

But Trump is at the center of the whole game while Hillary isn't mentioned anywhere in the flavor text. Trump is, and G-man just told us that the flavor posts are intended to "contain game-relevant information". In these posts he tells us that we are all members of Trump's campaign team, and that someone is in here trying to kill Trump himself. To me this suggests that it may not be a straightforward Serial Killer, but an assassin trying to kill one target over the others. Or the flavor text is just flavor text; but G-man just told us it is not. In all of the write ups it is mentioned that Trump was the intended target of the serial killer but other figures "got in the way". Perhaps there is a serial killer that wins the game when they kill the player who has the role of Donald Trump.

Okay. I checked. Hillary was mentioned a few times, just nothing more than just being mentioned.

What are yout thoughts?

[Quin]

Why is Trump not a role?

Because Hilary isn't (unless there actually is a fourth baddie, but I really doubt it), and they're the spearheads of each faction.

But Trump is at the center of the whole game while Hillary isn't mentioned anywhere in the flavor text. Trump is, and G-man just told us that the flavor posts are intended to "contain game-relevant information". In these posts he tells us that we are all members of Trump's campaign team, and that someone is in here trying to kill Trump himself. To me this suggests that it may not be a straightforward Serial Killer, but an assassin trying to kill one target over the others. Or the flavor text is just flavor text; but G-man just told us it is not. In all of the write ups it is mentioned that Trump was the intended target of the serial killer but other figures "got in the way". Perhaps there is a serial killer that wins the game when they kill the player who has the role of Donald Trump.

Okay. I checked. Hillary was mentioned a few times, just nothing more than just being mentioned.

What are yout thoughts?

'Ehh'

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm watchinh handegg tonight. I'm warming to an MM vote.

What strikes you as warm about it?

I like the observation you made and he hasn't really answered to it yet.

[Sloonei]

@ Quin: What sort of strategy are you using to hunt for the serial killer? This is a different thing than hunting a regular baddie. I want to know what everyone's doing about it.

[Quin]

@ Quin: What sort of strategy are you using to hunt for the serial killer? This is a different thing than hunting a regular baddie. I want to know what everyone's doing about it.

I'm searching for passivity. Behaviours that are exhibited for the sake of moving on from the current situation, not for the sake of solving the game.

I'm actually moving towards voting INH from this viewpoint.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just remembered I thought MM looked bad in my Day 3 night kill analysis too, so that's a thing. I think anyone could have killed Epignosis.

[Sloonei]

@ Quin: What sort of strategy are you using to hunt for the serial killer? This is a different thing than hunting a regular baddie. I want to know what everyone's doing about it.

I'm searching for passivity. Behaviours that are exhibited for the sake of moving on from the current situation, not for the sake of solving the game.

I'm actually moving towards voting INH from this viewpoint.

Why INH? Can you point to specific posts that give you this feeling?

[Quin]

@ Quin: What sort of strategy are you using to hunt for the serial killer? This is a different thing than hunting a regular baddie. I want to know what everyone's doing about it.

I'm searching for passivity. Behaviours that are exhibited for the sake of moving on from the current situation, not for the sake of solving the game.

I'm actually moving towards voting INH from this viewpoint.

Why INH? Can you point to specific posts that give you this feeling?

Well, since you asked so nicely, I can.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The fact that INH has said nothing all day makes me think he's less likely to be a SK desperate for survival.

Is that dumb? Am I dumb?

[Sloonei]

Just remembered I thought MM looked bad in my Day 3 night kill analysis too, so that's a thing. I think anyone could have killed Epignosis.

Does this already exist in a post somewhere?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just remembered I thought MM looked bad in my Day 3 night kill analysis too, so that's a thing. I think anyone could have killed Epignosis.

Does this already exist in a post somewhere?

Yeah but phones are stupid. Just a moment.

[Quin]

Spoiler: show

I'm going to throw my vote onto the Scotty bonfire. Him and Sloonei are probably my two most suspicious people at this point, and I'm willing to give Sloonei a chance to earn my trust here. Plus I really don't like the Leetic bandwagon, so helping to derail that is a nice bonus.

Day 1 vote. It was just a fourth vote on the only established wagon. Quin 1.0 town-read this because he wanted to build a wall and make 3J pay for it.

Spoiler: show

True or false: Had 3J been almost anybody else, he would have been summarily lynched today.

False, I would hope. Quin is far more obviously bad than Jay at this time.

Scotty flipped town and his teammates would have known it was going to happen. I find it far less suspicious seeing Jay fight against that lynch than Quin lining up his next target based on a town flip.

Don't forget, scotty himself didn't try voting to save himself...

Scotty voted Leetic, who looked like a pretty popular lynch candidate for a while.

And seriously, someone trying to start a train against a baddie candidate is less suspicious than Quin tossing a vote Sloonei's way?

Golden, I don't hate your Quin case, but you gotta get off your high horse of hyperbole and let your facts speak for themselves.

Epi asked you about 3J, and you still found a way to drag Quin through the mud.

He resisted voting Quin 1.0 for what kind of seems to be Golden 1.0's attitude. There's more dialogue than this but at one point he says the case is 'solid' but he sticks to voting 3J without that confidence in his posts. If he voted Golden 1.0, I could understand.

Spoiler: show

PROPOSED STRATEGY: Lynch JaggedJimmyJay.

If he's scum, celebrate.

If he's town, lynch Quin.

This is what initially made me start to doubt my town read for him. This kind of contingency is just anti-town from all perspectives.

Spoiler: show

@Quin voters who aren't 3J: In the event that Quin is civ, would you be open to a 3J lynch Day 3?

How will you feel about everyone in the event that Quin is mafia?

I'd look more at the inacts, and cast a wider net.

I wouldn't stop suspecting you, though. I may not stump super hard for your lynch Day 3, but you'd still be on my shitlist.

I mentioned this once. I'm still not sure why Quin 1.0's flip would have in any way implicated the inactives. It kind of sounds like an excuse to get some easy mislynches in.

Spoiler: show

3J I'll respond to that after my lynch analysis.

Spoiler: marmot looks bad. How do you feel about him?

I could see marmot being bad. Especially if INH is bad, because it makes sense marmot would look to push scotty over the edge if he is a seemer, rather than lose inh, when the pair of them were fighting on day 1.

I really find inh shifty. Yesterday he called my case on you good, but basically absolved himself from it just based on me being arrogant. I don't like when people use ad hominem in place of detective work. I'm going to take whatever tone I like if I think it might be effective, and actually even while I left my vote on Quin I thought the best point in his favour was his reasoning for giving me a town read.

He also literally ignored posts endeavouring to get him to put in rational thought while accusing others of trying to stop rational thought.

idk how to respond to the marmot thing, there's just too many assumptions there.

i said that the case against Quin made sense, but that I found 3J's case more interesting. your tone had zip to do with it.

And honestly, shut up about the whole "rational thought" thing. Whenever you say it, you obviously mean "agreeing with my opinions about the game", so just don't even bother.

I'd take the lynch that made sense over the lynch that was interesting anyday. But that's just me.

Spoiler: show

So, Golden has been taken in by the paradoxical WIFOM tornado of scumminess that is 3J.

Quin and Marmot are now at each others throats for some reason.

And 3J is just encouraging the Quin and Marmot thing, drawing a line in the sand between him, Golden, Marmot and the treasonous Quin.

Quin and Sloonei, what's your read on 3J?

I feel at this point, forcing a tie is the best possible scenario here.

Marmot, are you dedicated to voting Quin?

Forcing a tie is essentially just taking the power to determine whether your biggest scrumread is lynched out of the equation and just letting a dice decide it for you. Perfect for avoiding unwanted attention, perfect for lynching someone who isn't you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just remembered I thought MM looked bad in my Day 3 night kill analysis too, so that's a thing. I think anyone could have killed Epignosis.

Does this already exist in a post somewhere?

Yeah but phones are stupid. Just a moment.

On Day 3 I went through every living player and checked the ISOs of the night killed players to look for kill motives. It's the same strategy I used in Talking Heads that led to me voting for serial killer Diiny.

Metalmarsh89 serial killer hunt

Concluding rainbows

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Forcing a tie is essentially just taking the power to determine whether your biggest scrumread is lynched out of the equation and just letting a dice decide it for you. Perfect for avoiding unwanted attention, perfect for lynching someone who isn't you.

Good point. I'd also assert that in a tied tally, if the lynched player is town, the winner of the coin flip usually gets lynched next (or at least eventually).

[Sloonei]

Just remembered I thought MM looked bad in my Day 3 night kill analysis too, so that's a thing. I think anyone could have killed Epignosis.

Does this already exist in a post somewhere?

Yeah but phones are stupid. Just a moment.

I would have dug it up myself if not for the stupidity of phones.

[Golden]

The fact that INH has said nothing all day makes me think he's less likely to be a SK desperate for survival.

Is that dumb? Am I dumb?

No.

After I saw epi flip I thought sloonei was my most likely vote today, but the stuff sloonei has written on MM is persuasive. Quin seems least likely of the three to be SK (to me).

The difficult thing for me is sloonei's behaviour is like a guy who got town cred early then vanished into the shadows to not get NKed but also not take suspicion. I know it could be only rl stuff, but it also lines up. Now that we are only SK hunting, sloonei is back to take the lead.

On the other hand, sloonei feels genuine, and the stuff on MM makes sense. But, if sloonei is the sk, then of course it's to his advantage to find a case on someone else that looks solid fast.

And I know I don't have that much more time genuinely around to decide this.

Jay, quin, thoughts on sloonei as sk?

[Golden]

Having a quick look at Jay's sk hunt... the main concern with the rationale behind the conclusions is if it has to be discarded because the sk is specifically looking for trump.

The Rico kill also makes tons of sense with no other rationale if this is actually true.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay, quin, thoughts on sloonei as sk?

There's nothing objective to preclude him from candidacy. I have considered the same concerns you're voicing here. At the very least we have a precedent set from before this game started and also in the other game that Sloonei really has been busy. His activity arc is SK-compatible, but I don't struggle to think that's coincidental.

What I like about Sloonei right now isn't so much that he's "leading" the SK hunt, or that he initiated the new case brewing on MM. It's that he's engaging everyone else individually to determine how they are working this out, which would seem an ideal way for him to judge whether people are being genuine in their efforts. It's also something that could be faked, but anything could be faked. I don't think it's especially likely that I vote for Sloonei on Day 4.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Having a quick look at Jay's sk hunt... the main concern with the rationale behind the conclusions is if it has to be discarded because the sk is specifically looking for trump.

The Rico kill also makes tons of sense with no other rationale if this is actually true.

Yeah, if the SK is specifically looking for Trump then that stuff is probably less relevant now. I am not sure it's completely irrelevant, because I don't know if this hypothetical SK variant would have a good way of knowing which of his town reads is most likely to be Donald Trump. With that in mind they may still have other motives in their kills with the added hope of getting lucky. It's all quite speculative.

[Golden]

Yes, sorry. I know I'm positing a problem without a solution, but... I in particular read your case on Marmot and also your one on sloonei and they both... just didn't help me as much as I was hoping given my time constraints. It's not a criticism just... I wish it was more clear cut.

[Sloonei]

And so far I've gotten good vibes from the three of you today. INH and MM remain in the dark until they get in here and start throwing things around.

Linki: Yeah, everything abot the SK/Trump thing is entirely speculative. I am considering it as a possibility but I wouldn't want to bank on it at this stage of the game.