RED vs. BLUE: Endgame

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If we can collectively PoE this thing to two people (accurately) then town wins.

Golden is peeling me off of INH. They're not team mates so I don't know what nefarious motive he'd have for that.

I like Sloonei today. I think my current PoE is MM/Quin 2.0.

[Sloonei]

Tell me about this Quin 2.0.

[Quin]

The fact that INH has said nothing all day makes me think he's less likely to be a SK desperate for survival.

Is that dumb? Am I dumb?

No.

After I saw epi flip I thought sloonei was my most likely vote today, but the stuff sloonei has written on MM is persuasive. Quin seems least likely of the three to be SK (to me).

The difficult thing for me is sloonei's behaviour is like a guy who got town cred early then vanished into the shadows to not get NKed but also not take suspicion. I know it could be only rl stuff, but it also lines up. Now that we are only SK hunting, sloonei is back to take the lead.

On the other hand, sloonei feels genuine, and the stuff on MM makes sense. But, if sloonei is the sk, then of course it's to his advantage to find a case on someone else that looks solid fast.

And I know I don't have that much more time genuinely around to decide this.

Jay, quin, thoughts on sloonei as sk?

An ill-informed 'probably not' for Sloonei as the SK. He's been a consistent town read for me for some time. He's well invested in solving the game despite how busy he is, where I feel like a typical indie would coast a bit in that situation.

[Quin]

If we can collectively PoE this thing to two people (accurately) then town wins.

Golden is peeling me off of INH. They're not team mates so I don't know what nefarious motive he'd have for that.

I like Sloonei today. I think my current PoE is MM/Quin 2.0.

You would not believe the heaviness of the sigh I just let out reading this.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Tell me about this Quin 2.0.

It's the name my brain spat out. I think I am the least inspired by the case for Quin not being the SK.

Denver is going to win this stupid game, son of a ______. Come on Carolina.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If we can collectively PoE this thing to two people (accurately) then town wins.

Golden is peeling me off of INH. They're not team mates so I don't know what nefarious motive he'd have for that.

I like Sloonei today. I think my current PoE is MM/Quin 2.0.

You would not believe the heaviness of the sigh I just let out reading this.

If it makes you feel better, I suspect MM more.

[Sloonei]

If we can collectively PoE this thing to two people (accurately) then town wins.

Golden is peeling me off of INH. They're not team mates so I don't know what nefarious motive he'd have for that.

I like Sloonei today. I think my current PoE is MM/Quin 2.0.

You would not believe the heaviness of the sigh I just let out reading this.

Rank all of us from most suspicipus to least. Please and thank you.

[Quin]

If we can collectively PoE this thing to two people (accurately) then town wins.

Golden is peeling me off of INH. They're not team mates so I don't know what nefarious motive he'd have for that.

I like Sloonei today. I think my current PoE is MM/Quin 2.0.

You would not believe the heaviness of the sigh I just let out reading this.

Rank all of us from most suspicipus to least. Please and thank you.

Golden
Sloonei
JaggedJimmyJay
metalmarsh89
insertnamehere

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Is that least suspicious to most?

[Quin]

Is that least suspicious to most?

Correct.

[Golden]

Mine is

inh
Jay
Quin
sloonei
MM

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think Golden is more likely to be a SK than INH at this point. The only ill motive I can see for his continued defense of INH is that it earns him a voting ally as the SK himself. That's something he'd need at LyLo.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Effing Gano.

[Sloonei]

The marmot has started to separate himself for me, mostly because everyone else has done something to make me believe they are not the serial killer. Metalmarsh has done no such thing.

[Golden]

I think Golden is more likely to be a SK than INH at this point. The only ill motive I can see for his continued defense of INH is that it earns him a voting ally as the SK himself. That's something he'd need at LyLo.

Of all the people who are least likely to be my allies based solely on what goes on in this thread (or at least, who I'd trust the least), I'd count inh as number one.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think Golden is more likely to be a SK than INH at this point. The only ill motive I can see for his continued defense of INH is that it earns him a voting ally as the SK himself. That's something he'd need at LyLo.

Of all the people who are least likely to be my allies based solely on what goes on in this thread (or at least, who I'd trust the least), I'd count inh as number one.

I think what I'd be worried about is an INH-Golden 2.0-JJJ LyLo.

His griefs with you would be secondary to his suspicion of me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I guess at the current likely scenario, LyLo would be 4 players not 3.

G-MAN: Is it possible to no lynch in this game?

[Golden]

I think Golden is more likely to be a SK than INH at this point. The only ill motive I can see for his continued defense of INH is that it earns him a voting ally as the SK himself. That's something he'd need at LyLo.

Of all the people who are least likely to be my allies based solely on what goes on in this thread (or at least, who I'd trust the least), I'd count inh as number one.

I think what I'd be worried about is an INH-Golden 2.0-JJJ LyLo.

His griefs with you would be secondary to his suspicion of me.

I get it. It's wrong, and the problem is you are reading inh wrong and you should try reading him as someone whose motivations for posting whatever he posts is not able to be understood and stop ascribing meaning to it.

[Golden]

But I can definitely see how, if I was SK (or frankly, anyone not named you and inh in my spot, that's an ideal situation to win.

[Golden]

Boting MM before I leave work, in case I never get back.

[Marmot]

As for inh being a SK candidate, he is prime SK material for sure. But I'm not willing to lynch him today.

This is just generally speaking, not because of what inh has done in this game. :P

Linki: this^

I already explained to you the thought behind that post Jay.

I don't understand the explanation, now that we're here looking at it again. What about INH, generally speaking and not because of what he has done in this game, makes him prime SK material?

In my eyes, inh is the quintessential SK. When I think of him in mafia, I think of him being a dastardly and cunning fellow.

So my question is this: If we assume the serial killer wants to kill Trump, and Trump is a townie, the serial killer would be someone who had been town reading Boomslang, Rico, and Epi at the times of their deaths. Maybe.

Metalmarsh made little to no mention of Boomslang or Rico around their deaths. He had Epi as green on a late rainbow list.

This isn't a question. I never asked a question. Do people agree with this premise? And if so, who might that implicate?

I didn't townread Ricochet. But if I was the SK, I would certainly entertain killing him since he asked. I do have a sense of humor like that.

I didn't have anything to say about any of the kills iirc.

I'm watchinh handegg tonight. I'm warming to an MM vote.

These thoughts are so very related.

Just remembered I thought MM looked bad in my Day 3 night kill analysis too, so that's a thing. I think anyone could have killed Epignosis.

I have never and have no intention of ever nightkilling Epignosis.

Tell me about this Quin 2.0.

Tell me also about this Quin.

[Marmot]

The marmot has started to separate himself for me, mostly because everyone else has done something to make me believe they are not the serial killer. Metalmarsh has done no such thing.

Can you make a list of these things?

[Golden]

Why wouldn't you kill epi, marmot?

[Marmot]

Why wouldn't you kill epi, marmot?

A few personal reasons I don't want to discuss. But one of them is that he dies way too often and way too early in mafia games. It hasn't been as prevalent lately, but it used to be a thing.

[Golden]

Why wouldn't you kill epi, marmot?

A few personal reasons I don't want to discuss. But one of them is that he dies way too often and way too early in mafia games. It hasn't been as prevalent lately, but it used to be a thing.

I can understand that as a rule... I have in the past had a similar feeling towards you (it only lasts so long from me though, until the luck evens out). Are you suggesting there are no exceptions to this rule?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[Marmot]

Why wouldn't you kill epi, marmot?

A few personal reasons I don't want to discuss. But one of them is that he dies way too often and way too early in mafia games. It hasn't been as prevalent lately, but it used to be a thing.

I can understand that as a rule... I have in the past had a similar feeling towards you (it only lasts so long from me though, until the luck evens out). Are you suggesting there are no exceptions to this rule?

Much appreciated.

Not necessarily. If I am on a team with other people, and they felt the need to kill Epignosis, it would happen. Endgame scenarios are ruled out as well.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Endgame scenarios are ruled out as well.

If Epignosis had flipped town, we might be in an endgame scenario right now.

[Golden]

My gut says sloonei is the right vote. it's where I'd vote in a vacuum.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't feel good about voting for anyone. I hate serial killers.

[Marmot]

Here's some proof for you too, a list of every game I've played on this site and been mafia.

X-Men - Epignosis hosted.
The Hobbit - Epignosis survived to the end, but did not win.
Monopoly - I intentionally did not kill him, but the other baddies did.
Film Directors - Epignosis did not play.
Death Note - I did not kill Epignosis as mafia, but Bass the SK did.
Recruitment - Epignosis was killed Night 1 by the other baddies. He replaced back in for DH later, and we had to kill him late in the game because we knew he was a very powerful civilian role that we needed dead to win.
World Reborn - I can't remember who killed Epignosis, but I had nothing to do with it.
Downton - I let Epignosis live until my bitter end.
Angry Birds - Epignosis hosted.
Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder - He was lynched Day 1 lol.
Dune - Epignosis hosted.
Pikmin - We let Epignosis live until the end, and we won!
Barry Lyndon - We killed Epignosis to win the game. Epignosis essentially lived the whole game.
Psychic - I don't remember much of this game, but I subbed in and was almost immediately nightkilled myself. I do recall Epignosis living a while though.

So there you go, I've been on a team that has killed Epignosis twice. Once was to end a game. Once was because I (we) needed his role dead as part of our win condition. Epignosis being killed in this game does not fit in a scenario that I would kill him, and I absolutely did not do it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

For some reason I believe you, Marmot.

[Marmot]

I don't feel good about voting for anyone. I hate serial killers.

Going back through all of my games, I realized that I've never been a SK.

Linki: I would kill Ricochet in a heartbeat though.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Regarding the case Sloonei raised against Marmot, there is some manipulative potential I could readily identify. He drew a comparison between two posts that he identified as being separated by four minutes to show a contradiction between them.

The contradiction was only apparent on the surface though, because MM was answering a question I had asked him which featured a restricted context opposed to his uncertainty about a SK's existence.

This is to say there was no actual contradiction when context is acknowledged. Marmot's language when speaking of INH does bug me, but that's not the case Sloonei presented. I wish we could have talked about this hours ago.

[Marmot]

For some reason I believe you, Marmot.

I'm mildly surprised. Remember that other guy who said he's only ever bussed a teammate once?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

For some reason I believe you, Marmot.

I'm mildly surprised. Remember that other guy who said he's only ever bussed a teammate once?

Yeah I'm an idiot.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Regarding the case Sloonei raised against Marmot, there is some manipulative potential I could readily identify. He drew a comparison between two posts that he identified as being separated by four minutes to show a contradiction between them.

The contradiction was only apparent on the surface though, because MM was answering a question I had asked him which featured a restricted context opposed to his uncertainty about a SK's existence.

This is to say there was no actual contradiction when context is acknowledged. Marmot's language when speaking of INH does bug me, but that's not the case Sloonei presented. I wish we could have talked about this hours ago.

I'll expand on this. Sloonei's post:

Spoiler: show

I'm not willing to make the assumption that there is an SK. Every player that has been nightkilled has been a vig candidate to an extent.

But like you, I'm more interested in lynching mafia first and foremost.

"I'm not so sure there is a serial killer...
4 minutes later:

As for inh being a SK candidate, he is prime SK material for sure. But I'm not willing to lynch him today.

"But INH makes sense as a serial killer"
Later that night:

This serial killer talk is just a distraction from the main course: MAFIA!

The heat goes on.

"Let's stop trying to catch the serial killer."

I'll return to the original Marmot post with full context:

Jay, you listed reywas lower on each of these lists, why did you then vote for DrWilgy?

I could vote reywaS too. Wilgy's current vote is more suspicious than reywaS doing nothing so I voted there. I think it's more important to pursue the mafia today, not the SK.

I don't think reywaS as an SK or a vig. He hasn't been online in a few days.

Could be. I'm pretty comfortable in those two being mafia. I like that you're willing to remove him from SK contention after I'd labeled you a top SK candidate. What do you think of INH as a SK candidate?

I'm not willing to make the assumption that there is an SK. Every player that has been nightkilled has been a vig candidate to an extent.

But like you, I'm more interested in lynching mafia first and foremost.

As for inh being a SK candidate, he is prime SK material for sure. But I'm not willing to lynch him today.

The yellow stuff pertains to the SK in general. You'll note that Marmot's post referenced by Sloonei was a part of a larger dialogue with me. He wasn't willing to assume a SK exists, but he still had my question to answer. And he answered it in the next post shortly thereafter.

The answer itself makes me queasy, but I don't think it's contradictory. Context reveals that, and Sloonei's retrieval of MM posts did not allow for that.

[Marmot]

Another note.

Sloonei raised the point that I didn't want to search for the SK earlier. That was correct. I didn't want to spend the energy looking for a solitary player when a team of 3 is easier to pursue. I did the same thing in Talking Heads. This is not a new strategy for me.

If the best and pretty much most viable method to hunt a SK is to study their nightkills, then doing early game hunts for such a role would probably be fruitless.

[Marmot]

Also note, Sloonei did not call Jay out for also wanting to pursue mafia over the SK on Day 3.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also note, Sloonei did not call Jay out for also wanting to pursue mafia over the SK on Day 3.

This reminded me of a thing. Stand by.

This post is pointless, I'm sorry for it.

[Marmot]

Also note, Sloonei did not call Jay out for also wanting to pursue mafia over the SK on Day 3.

This reminded me of a thing. Stand by.

This post is pointless, I'm sorry for it.

I'm going to bed when I finish my beer.

But I should be around in the morning.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What is your gripe with a reywaS lynch?

I told you. I'm more interested in lynching someone who could be either mafia or serial killer. I don't think reywaS or DrWilgy are the latter. You could be either one.

That is a peculiar strategy. Why are you using it?

What makes it peculiar?

Why would you not simply want to lynch the person most likely to be mafia or most likely to be the serial killer? It seems you are thinning out or weakening your suspicions by trying to potentially lynch them both. You can only lynch one player at a time. Why not focus on one role?

Because you catch serial killers by luck. Even if I'm wrong that 3J is mafia, there's a chance he's a serial killer. If you're wrong about reywaS, you're probably not getting the serial killer.

I do not agree that we catch serial killers purely by luck.

Epignosis may have been scum, but that's irrelevant to the SK. He didn't know that. Thus, anyone communicating with Epignosis among the living people would be interacting with him as they would anyone else.

Epi rejected the reywaS lynch because he said it didn't boast dual-potential to net a mafia or a serial killer. He wanted to lynch someone who was a viable candidate for both (he was bullshitting, but it's the perspective he provided). Given this mindset he portrayed, he was clearly conscious of both the mafia and the serial simultaneously -- the mindset Sloonei would seem to favor when he criticizes MM for "let's ignore the serial killer".

This might be an actual contradiction from Sloonei and evidence a disingenuous interaction.

[Quin]

I intend to move my vote from marmot at some point. I don't know where I want it to go.

Marmot, do you have a list of most/least likely to be the SK?

I've seen yours in the form of a PoE, Jay, but can you also do this for me?

[Marmot]

I told you. I'm more interested in lynching someone who could be either mafia or serial killer. I don't think reywaS or DrWilgy are the latter. You could be either one.

That is a peculiar strategy. Why are you using it?

What makes it peculiar?

Why would you not simply want to lynch the person most likely to be mafia or most likely to be the serial killer? It seems you are thinning out or weakening your suspicions by trying to potentially lynch them both. You can only lynch one player at a time. Why not focus on one role?

Because you catch serial killers by luck. Even if I'm wrong that 3J is mafia, there's a chance he's a serial killer. If you're wrong about reywaS, you're probably not getting the serial killer.

I do not agree that we catch serial killers purely by luck.

Epignosis may have been scum, but that's irrelevant to the SK. He didn't know that. Thus, anyone communicating with Epignosis among the living people would be interacting with him as they would anyone else.

Epi rejected the reywaS lynch because he said it didn't boast dual-potential to net a mafia or a serial killer. He wanted to lynch someone who was a viable candidate for both (he was bullshitting, but it's the perspective he provided). Given this mindset he portrayed, he was clearly conscious of both the mafia and the serial simultaneously -- the mindset Sloonei would seem to favor when he criticizes MM for "let's ignore the serial killer".

This might be an actual contradiction from Sloonei and evidence a disingenuous interaction.

I like this a lot. It's a small thing to pick up on, but it does not agree with what he's accused me of.

[Marmot]

I intend to move my vote from marmot at some point. I don't know where I want it to go.

Marmot, do you have a list of most/least likely to be the SK?

I've seen yours in the form of a PoE, Jay, but can you also do this for me?

I made one earlier.

My vote today will end up on either insertnamehere, Sloonei, JaggedJimmyJay. I think there's enough circumstantial evidence based on activity to rule out Quin 2.0 and Golden 2.0. Those 3 are listed in order of my current vote preference.

But it needs to be updated, so here's my new colorful one.

Golden 2.0
Quin 2.0
JaggedJimmyJay
insertnamehere
Sloonei

[Quin]

I intend to move my vote from marmot at some point. I don't know where I want it to go.

Marmot, do you have a list of most/least likely to be the SK?

I've seen yours in the form of a PoE, Jay, but can you also do this for me?

Just to go a bit more in depth,

marmot does not seem to me the kind of person to use 'emotional appeals' like this as a scum/indie tactic.

Why wouldn't you kill epi, marmot?

A few personal reasons I don't want to discuss. But one of them is that he dies way too often and way too early in mafia games. It hasn't been as prevalent lately, but it used to be a thing.

[Marmot]

I intend to move my vote from marmot at some point. I don't know where I want it to go.

Marmot, do you have a list of most/least likely to be the SK?

I've seen yours in the form of a PoE, Jay, but can you also do this for me?

Just to go a bit more in depth,

marmot does not seem to me the kind of person to use 'emotional appeals' like this as a scum/indie tactic.

Why wouldn't you kill epi, marmot?

A few personal reasons I don't want to discuss. But one of them is that he dies way too often and way too early in mafia games. It hasn't been as prevalent lately, but it used to be a thing.

I used to get emotional in mafia games, but that was before I became a marmot.

Quin, what's your candidate list look like?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've seen yours in the form of a PoE, Jay, but can you also do this for me?

I think mine already changed again.

Hunting serial killers is one of the most difficult tasks a town can face. There really is no good way to go about it, especially in a game like this which has so far looked close to mountainous.

I'll give you a rainbow, from least likely to most. Tiers make more sense for me now because a concrete rank wouldn't reflect the truth: I'm stumped.

insertnamehere -- Golden has made this close to an impossible vote. I don't think he defends INH in the manner he has (with brief, frank explanations) unless he is either uniquely informed or has some other agenda. It's not like his defenses of me, which he qualified thoroughly with a great deal of reasoning. This means I am left judging Golden's motives, not INH's.

Quin 2.0 -- I have no good reason to say Quin is the serial killer and no good reason to say he isn't. I wish I could offer a more inspired take than that, but it's really all I have to say.

Golden 2.0 -- I think the universe I painted earlier is plausible enough to warrant serious consideration. If Golden is the SK, the easiest route to victory available to him is to ensure INH is not lynched and then go to LyLo with him and I alive (and one other player). The chances of INH voting for someone other than me appear pretty small. This could also apply to any LyLo phase featuring INH and I, not just one with Golden -- but he is the one protecting INH.

Metalmarsh89 -- The language he used to describe INH as "prime SK material, for sure" is perhaps the worst-looking thing at face value. I think there's a little implication in the night kills, if that's even relevant.

Sloonei -- I just posted my new concerns about Sloonei.

[Quin]

Golden 2.0
metalmarsh89
Sloonei
JaggedJimmyJay
insertnamehere

[Marmot]

I'm off to bed now. Catch you all in the morning.