Monkey Island [ENDGAME]

#701

MovingPictures07 wrote:
motel room wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
motel room wrote:
Scotty wrote:Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet
This post feels like a presentation and it's got that here's a thing, but then here's the opposite of that thing structure that they do in cold reading.
Do you gain any potential alignment read from Scotty as a result?

And welcome back!
From his follow up chats, I'm into the guy.
Wait, sorry, I'm tired and dense right now. What do you mean by "into the guy"?

Means I like him, putting him as town for now.

#702

I would vote for either sig or Epignosis today, but I'm still interested in hearing more from sig so I'll abstain from actually voting for a bit longer.

#703

motel room wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
motel room wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
motel room wrote:
Scotty wrote:Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet
This post feels like a presentation and it's got that here's a thing, but then here's the opposite of that thing structure that they do in cold reading.
Do you gain any potential alignment read from Scotty as a result?

And welcome back!
From his follow up chats, I'm into the guy.
Wait, sorry, I'm tired and dense right now. What do you mean by "into the guy"?
Means I like him, putting him as town for now.

Got it, thanks. My bad.

#704

Quin wrote:I would vote for either sig or Epignosis today, but I'm still interested in hearing more from sig so I'll abstain from actually voting for a bit longer.

Let's talk. Initially I'm feeling kinda better about sig based on his recent contributions, but again, I need to dig through his content in detail. (gonna start that now)

Why those two? Any thoughts on the others?

#705

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Quin wrote:I would vote for either sig or Epignosis today, but I'm still interested in hearing more from sig so I'll abstain from actually voting for a bit longer.
Let's talk. Initially I'm feeling kinda better about sig based on his recent contributions, but again, I need to dig through his content in detail. (gonna start that now)

Why those two? Any thoughts on the others?

My reason for suspecting sig kind of lines up with what I've discussed with you, and my Epi suspicion rests on his approach to the 'let's cull the inactives' mindset.

motel room came back in strong, and I already had a civ tone-read on Eloh, so I could shade him as a light green read. Same to you - but I'm perhaps slightly hesitant because of your supposed record involving emotional appeals/outbursts. Nacho is my strongest town read. I like that he's come out swinging from the get-go even though he's in an unfamiliar environment.

#706

Quin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Quin wrote:I would vote for either sig or Epignosis today, but I'm still interested in hearing more from sig so I'll abstain from actually voting for a bit longer.
Let's talk. Initially I'm feeling kinda better about sig based on his recent contributions, but again, I need to dig through his content in detail. (gonna start that now)

Why those two? Any thoughts on the others?
My reason for suspecting sig kind of lines up with what I've discussed with you, and my Epi suspicion rests on his approach to the 'let's cull the inactives' mindset.

motel room came back in strong, and I already had a civ tone-read on Eloh, so I could shade him as a light green read. Same to you - but I'm perhaps slightly hesitant because of your supposed record involving emotional appeals/outbursts. Nacho is my strongest town read. I like that he's come out swinging from the get-go even though he's in an unfamiliar environment.

Do you not have any thoughts on sig's d2 behavior?

I agree with motel room; he'd get a slight green once I update my rainbow.

Speaking of which, want to compare rainbows at some point?

I won't be updating mine until I do these ISOs though.

#707

I don't do rainbows but this is what I've got scrawled from a read through starting somewhere during Night 1, already sort of said most of it

Good - quin, MP, scotty
Bad - metalmarsh, dfaraday, sig
Golden (vouched for) - Long Con, MP

#708

MovingPictures07 wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:
Long Con wrote:On the other hand, rainbow lists can paint a target on the heads of those who are deemed most Civ.
This is why I hate rainbow lists. On the other hand, I do use them to determine someone's alignment based on how they rate me. Self-centered, perhaps, but it's been working decently well. Mostly hate for rainbows, though.

I think that's all I have for now. Happy to address whatever, or discuss whatever. I feel like a normal human again, both in workload and health

MovingPictures07 wrote:RIP Golden.

Seriously, who the hell would kill Golden in his comeback game? Heartless bastards, that's who.

I haven't caught up, and still won't until I've finished all my preparations for Parks and Recreation Mafia hosting. Sorry. I should be around at some point today though and I'll be ISOing you folks. So be prepared.
So a page full of MP posts. So, normal mafia.
Blooper, can you elaborate on this bolded/underlined bit?

There is a pattern I've noticed about how I am rated by certain players on rainbow lists. I shall elaborate no further for fear of giving away my super secret awesome baddie senses

#709

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Quin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Quin wrote:I would vote for either sig or Epignosis today, but I'm still interested in hearing more from sig so I'll abstain from actually voting for a bit longer.
Let's talk. Initially I'm feeling kinda better about sig based on his recent contributions, but again, I need to dig through his content in detail. (gonna start that now)

Why those two? Any thoughts on the others?
My reason for suspecting sig kind of lines up with what I've discussed with you, and my Epi suspicion rests on his approach to the 'let's cull the inactives' mindset.

motel room came back in strong, and I already had a civ tone-read on Eloh, so I could shade him as a light green read. Same to you - but I'm perhaps slightly hesitant because of your supposed record involving emotional appeals/outbursts. Nacho is my strongest town read. I like that he's come out swinging from the get-go even though he's in an unfamiliar environment.
Do you not have any thoughts on sig's d2 behavior?

I agree with motel room; he'd get a slight green once I update my rainbow.

Speaking of which, want to compare rainbows at some point? I won't be updating mine until I do these ISOs though.

He's entertaining both perspectives on the issue of the single night kill, but he did take a stance so it's not like he's trying to sit on the fence. I would say that's a good look. When he replied to my elaboration on my suspicion of Epi he said he wondered if I had any other reasoning, which feels like he was expecting something specific from me which I didn't give him. He should tell me what that was or whether I'm just reading too much into things.

I don't lean either way on his NK analysis.

And sure, but probably later on. I feel more productive at night so I'd rather do elaborate things like that then, at the risk of sounding lazy.

#710

Quin is either bad or a fool.

#711

Epignosis wrote:Quin is either bad or a fool.

thank u

#712

Listen.

Black Rock has two posts. That's it. If she's good, she isn't doing anything to find Mafia. If she's bad, bingo.

Couple that with the knowledge that lots of people missed Night 1 and only one person died, and again BINGO.

Stop being cute.

#713

boarding a flight to Cali right now and won't want to mafia on my way to our next stop, so I'll post now and check back tomorrow

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Scotty, got any reads you want to throw at the thread?

As you probably know, I tend not to like to throw around civ reads too early.
But, I get good vibes from you, Epi, and...surprisingly, sig (NOT DOG).
I think zebra is my biggest baddie read right now. I don't remember if she ever got back to me why she suspected Snow and not me. Her behavior is either a flamboyant townie that is full of WIFOM or a blatant baddie. It's hard for me to differentiate but I'm leaning bad.
Of the 3 N1 inactives, I like that Boom responded to it, but I am actually leaning towards him as a slight mafia read. His inference that he was around but just didn't post doesn't sit well with me.

Quin wrote:I'll post this here as well just so people are aware of why my activity or level of effort might drop in this game:

Quin wrote:I'm getting one of my wisdom teeth out tomorrow. Originally I was supposed to get both of my bottom teeth out way back when I got the first one out, but I had some issues getting scans done so the dentist postponed getting one of them. So now I get to go through recovery a second time
My painkillers make me drowsy and between that and the expected repeat of the lack of sleep and pain I went through last time, I probably won't be incredibly motivated for a while

oh dude that sucks. I got all 4 of mine taken out a bit ago, and that was a pain in the ass (mouth). I got dry sockets on the bottoms and had to pack gloves or some shit into them every day to stop the bleeding and pain. Oh god the pain

#714

Oh, and I like motel room's entrance.

I was digging supatown Nacho in D1 and he hasn't posted since day 1, so I'm feeling less good about him atm.

I do feel like an infusion of some of the low posters will help this phase along.

K, turning phone off

#715

I voted for Black Rock.

Who opposes her lynch, and why do you oppose it?

#716

Working on the sig ISO. Spoiler alert: this guy looks bad. Real bad.

#717

Epignosis wrote:I voted for Black Rock.

Who opposes her lynch, and why do you oppose it?

I don't oppose a Black Rock lynch, but I think we have a little more time to hunt before committing to a target. Reading over other people, I think there's a case to be made against Wilgy. Starting out with the bold not-checking-my-role gambit, then devolving almost immediately into fluff. He hasn't had a single post of substance all game, other than a "gut read" of MP as bad and claiming to "frown upon those that miss the vote" despite missing it himself. That continual jokey language of helping townies in "their" plight also seems too cute. I'd really like to see something solid out of him, and soon.

#718

Boomslang wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I voted for Black Rock.

Who opposes her lynch, and why do you oppose it?
I don't oppose a Black Rock lynch, but I think we have a little more time to hunt before committing to a target. Reading over other people, I think there's a case to be made against Wilgy. Starting out with the bold not-checking-my-role gambit, then devolving almost immediately into fluff. He hasn't had a single post of substance all game, other than a "gut read" of MP as bad and claiming to "frown upon those that miss the vote" despite missing it himself. That continual jokey language of helping townies in "their" plight also seems too cute. I'd really like to see something solid out of him, and soon.

Follow your conscience, pal.

#719

This weekend ended up being a weekend that was surprisingly productive for all things that aren't mafia; I'll try to catch up in full in the morning and then will be back to regular activity levels after tomorrow (which will be another mostly quiet day)

#720

MovingPictures07 wrote:Working on the sig ISO. Spoiler alert: this guy looks bad. Real bad.

That means I must be a civ.

Also I'd say I don't look bad at all, I was going based on gut.

#721

ISO of sig

==========================================================================================================================

Day 1

Spoiler: show

This is an admittedly minor grievance, but I don't have anything to like in this post. The vague sentiment that my tongue-in-cheek town team-up comment "seems early" shifts attention in my direction but in a noncommittal and unspecific fashion.

Spoiler: show

Here's sig's first meaty post of the game (fourth overall). He concludes that he had minor pings for three players, so I highlighted what he wrote about those players to compare/contrast with what he wrote about the rest.

Although sig's thoughts on me and Mac were a bit vague, and I think those thoughts could be easily fabricated, I can see a potential link between his initial thoughts expressed here and concluding that they were minor pings. I'm having trouble reconciling sig's thoughts on motel room with a minor ping, however, since "seemed a little weird" is an incredibly vague version of a ping/accusation. This is potentially bothersome if it came at a point in the thread in which motel room was already receiving negative attention (note to self / others: investigate this).

Also, sig, where's that LC ISO?

Spoiler: show

There is an unexplained discrepancy in sig's posts back to back, which is a bad look. In sig's previous post, he said "Nacho is posting alot looking good, but I think we should watch him a mafia member becoming a town leader can be devastating", but here he says he can't shake his ping of Nacho. The ping he can't shake is also completely vague (gut read). This needs to be explained by sig ASAP, because there is nothing in either post that indicates a change of mind, which implies that sig lost track of whether he found Nacho a town or mafia read. I don't see how a member of the town genuinely could lose track of that. This is troublesome.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:
MacDougall wrote:
sig wrote:
Boomslang wrote:Also, obligatory finger-pointing at a2zebra, sig, and motel room for either not posting in Day 1 or posting nothing of substance. Sig, I see you lurking. What's on your mind?
That math test wasn't to hard
Roommate is dumb
Shameless is a good show y'all should watch it
Zebra has been quiet (hello pot meet kettle lets both be black together)
Drunken Motel seemed a little weird
I dislike Mac clearing Motel for being drunk, very pingy?
No vibes from LC either way I'll ISO him later
Nacho is posting alot looking good, but I think we should watch him a mafia member becoming a town leader can be devastating
I dislike the vote for Wilgy, this is his normal behavior
Epi is being very fluffy, which is normal but less content then usually.
and I remember very little from MP's posts which is odd since I know he is posting alot, I just can't recall them.

So a few minor pings for MP, Mac, and Motel.

Boom and Quin both look okay so far. \

And I'm off to bed, but I'll be on tomorrow with a few more in depth reads (hopefully) and around to cast my vote. I plan to look over LC, MP, and Mac before voting.
Sig is town guys.
Why am I town?

Golden wrote:I feel more clueless than usual for day one - I don't have any active bad reads. My vote is going to a player who I don't think has yet matched my perception of their civ meta.

I feel a bit like a dick doing that because I know how frustrating I find it when I get lynched on day one merely for not posting 150 times! But I have nothing better to go on.

That means, for me, motel room, sig or ninja. I normally get an early town vibe from MR that is lacking here. Sig is waaay too quiet for sig. Ninja's check in was probably before any content developed, but she is adept at using her limited posts well and that's what I'm waiting to see.

I'd wait for the morning if I could, but I can't. So, ninja it is.
Sig has been busy and he kinda forgot about the game.

I find it odd you plan to vote for me for being quieter then usually seems like a good scapegoat vote.

MovingPictures07 wrote:sig, I've provided more reads on players than almost everyone else in the game. If you can't remember my content that's on you, not me.
You've provided reads yes, but you've done nothing that sticks out one way or another if that makes sense. So your posting and in my mind I know that you're being active but, from my read over you don't seem to be being helpful.

I find that to be very odd.

I don't like sig's mention of "odd" twice in this post, because I feel like "odd" and "weird" and similar synonyms are easy ways for mafia members to manufacture suspicion without much substance. Furthermore, I find it highly dubious that odd behavior translates to suspicious behavior, as townies act oddly or irrationally often.

Spoiler: show

Here sig doubles down on a defense of DrWilgy (in a previous post he said that Wilgy's behavior is 'normal meta'). I like his thoughts on Wilgy here, as he sticks his neck out for him, but I'm not sure how alignment indicative it really is. The rest of the post is full of noncommittal statements indicating no thoughts about whether sig finds anything alignment indicative of those players' behavior. Overall I don't feel much of anything about this post.

Spoiler: show

Another vague post. Says motel room's post is "super weird", but doesn't elaborate upon it. Slightly bad look.

Spoiler: show

Here sig elaborates upon his suspicion of me, which I feel is difficult for me to attempt to judge without some sort of bias, so your thoughts would be appreciated. He says he is eyeballing Wilgy voters (Blooper and Soneji) and motel room. I still find it bothersome that sig is continuing to bang the motel room drum. It's especially ironic given sig's subsequent post here:

Spoiler: show

where he criticizes me for my "weak" vote after saying he suspects motel room all d1 with next to no reason. I find this incredibly suspicious behavior.

I find it intriguing that sig says if I am mafia, he would like to look into lynching Wilgy, yet he defended Wilgy more than any other player prior to this point. This presents further reason for me to believe that sig is manufacturing his thoughts on players.

Spoiler: show

Votes for me based on being out of character yet simultaneously similar to another game (Scrimmage game). Not sure why I didn't find it off previously, but there is a bit of cognitive dissonance there. sig, if you can elaborate how my behavior was simultaneously out of character yet similar to my behavior in another game, that'd be great.

Spoiler: show

Further alarm bells. He doubles down on criticizing me for my motel room vote when he previously said he suspected motel room and said he'd be okay with it. This is suspicious.

Spoiler: show

Pushes suspicion of me further. Quin's post expressing dislike of this content makes an excellent point; sig's post implies that he doesn't care whether I am being genuine in whether my vote was out of self-preservation, only the fact that I didn't state that it was.

Spoiler: show

I commented on this post at the time with basically "No". I feel the same way now. sig's "odd = suspicious" statement here is something I think is absolutely false, and he provides no substantive backing for his assertion.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Quin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:sig, I've provided more reads on players than almost everyone else in the game. If you can't remember my content that's on you, not me.
I suspect sig for this. There's another post later on I'll get to eventually, but I could easily interpret this as a bad sig not even reading the thread, hence 'not remembering' a whole 17 (... )meaty posts in a row from MP.
I would say that if anyone suspecting me right now is mafia, it's most believable to be sig, but I'm a bit hesitant to pursue that train of thought aggressively for multiple reasons:

1) I have not yet had the opportunity to engage directly with sig and he has not yet seen these recent responses of mine, so perhaps he has not had enough information to come to a more informed assessment of me.

2) sig not thoroughly examining the thread, or even reading it, and then making gut-based interpretations of my behavior is just as compatible with a town sig that increasingly is becoming bothered with aspects of my behavior in the game as it is with a mafia sig that is trying to push me as mislynch because everyone on this site knows that I'm a relatively easy mislynch to push. Do you have reason to believe that it is more compatible with the latter explanation? I haven't seen anything compelling personally.

3) Although I do still firmly believe it is on sig that he does not recall my content, his accusation is still potentially legitimate if he believes I am a mafia member manufacturing my suspicions and trying to flood the thread with posts but my substance in those posts is lacking. Now the point I was raised in my quoted post above was that I was contributing more than nearly everyone else, and while that is likely unarguable, mulling over it I think I missed sig's point and that was that he believes, in comparison to his perception of what he believes town MP would be posting, my content is lacking. I did not adequately address that concern.

sig, let me know if you want to engage on any of this.
Yeah MP hit the nail on the head, also it isn't that he isn't posting content it's that he is posting content in an MP mafia sort of way. Maybe i'm just paranoid after seeing him destroy town in Scrimmage, since in that game he flooded the thread amd it was meaty, but it was lacking content since he wasn't attempting to actually solve the game, but distract people. That is what I was seeing from day 1 MP, so of course I sounded off and pointed it out.

I still have a mafia lean on MP, but less so after his latest batch of posts.

In response to Quin wanting sig's head, I expressed that I believed sig is the most likely accuser of me to be bad, but I stated three clear hesitations in heavily pursuing that train of thought. Perhaps I shouldn't have done that quite yet, since here sig comes back into the thread and basically says "yeah, what MP said". It could be that I did indeed hit the nail on the head, but this is also an easy way for a mafia sig to backpedal a bit and not have to provide his own response to Quin.

==========================================================================================================================

Day 2

Spoiler: show

sig states that LC, Epi, and I all are town reads. sig's gradual change from strongly suspecting me to less so during n1 to not at all now, with no associated reasoning, again would be an easy thing to fake. I also find his thoughts on me tend to coincide opportunistically with sentiment currently in the thread, which lends more credence to the theory that he is manufacturing them.

What is further problematic is that sig states here that he believes the mafia didn't vote at all or voted on a non wagon. This is a 180 from everything he was blasting me and Wilgy voters for the prior day, with no apparent reason for the change. Suspicious as hell.

Spoiler: show

Here are sig's thoughts on the lack of n1 kill. He argues against the inactive argument. I find this null, but thought it was worth highlighting in here.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:
Golden wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Nachomamma8 wrote:And, while I'm at it: MovingPictures, would you mind elaborating on your LC town lean a little more? I understand there might not be much behind it, but what do you think of him scumreading DrWigly early? It seems to me that DrWigly doing something weird (like not reading his role PM) isn't really unexpected and I don't actually think there's any scum motivation behind not reading your role PM; why don't you think that he's pushing on an easy target early?

If I was able to vote and change my vote, I'd be voting Long Con for those reasons; MovingPictures is a civilian read at this point.
Yeah, there really isn't much behind it, and LC is historically difficult for me to read. LC's post history has seemed genuine to me; I like the way he handled Mac's "you're trying too hard" with "try harder", he handled the accusation well.

You make a good argument as to why Wilgy's not worth scum reading though; that's why I didn't find it worth any read personally. I've been wrong about LC before for what seemed like manufactured or opportunistic early suspicions though.
I'm historically pretty damn good at reading LC - defending him against bad accusations, attacking him when no one else will listen..

For right now I think he is town. His role analysis shines more when he is town, I think. I can't put it into exact words, but there is a depth to it that indicates genuine thought an desire to get the answers.
I found this bit on LC interesting will get back to it later.

Golden wrote:I feel more clueless than usual for day one - I don't have any active bad reads. My vote is going to a player who I don't think has yet matched my perception of their civ meta.

I feel a bit like a dick doing that because I know how frustrating I find it when I get lynched on day one merely for not posting 150 times! But I have nothing better to go on.

That means, for me, motel room, sig or ninja. I normally get an early town vibe from MR that is lacking here. Sig is waaay too quiet for sig. Ninja's check in was probably before any content developed, but she is adept at using her limited posts well and that's what I'm waiting to see.

I'd wait for the morning if I could, but I can't. So, ninja it is.
Mentions me and Ninja, for being to quiet he did end up voting for Ninja but he didn't really push on her.

Golden wrote:Hey zebra. I see you lurking - although maybe you can only post in smilies right now. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the game so far though.

Also, snow, sorry for not buddying you sooner, but it's nice to meet you. Your name comes up a lot, so I'm looking forward to playing with you.
Talks about zebra worth noting, but again he wasn't really pushing zebra.

Golden wrote:Re my opinion on MP

I have seen him be frustrated at accusations as both alignments.
I've seen him buddy people as both alignments.

I can recall specific instances of him burning me with each of them in the past when bad, but it's easy to let 'you have done that to me when bad before' sway your read to 'bad' when it's actually 'null'.

I also think that MP has been incredibly regularly on the table for lynching on day one/two recently, and I've seen a marked uptick in him getting frustrated at the accusations early rather than maintaining a rational calm. Again, I see this as null, because I've seen it as both alignments. And I don't really blame him - I have been through runs in the past where I'm in that spot where no matter what you do, people are immediately inspecting me and declaring me bad, and it can get very frustrating. Sometimes you just want a run of not being on defense to get your hunting straight.

All of those null things straight - here are things I've seen as genuinely potentially alignment-indicative from MP

1) His happiness to have the game going at a slow pace - town-aligned. I think he would be much more focussed on his meta upkeep if he was bad, but in this game I did not get the sense he cared about maintaining any appearance. This is also a major town tell with me, and I believe it's a pretty reliable one.

2) His focus on nacho in the early game - feeling out and interacting with a new player - town-aligned. I felt like MP was genuinely trying to get a good sense of who he is and what he is bringing to the table.

3) His inability to see epi's case as holding merit - slightly bad-leaning. I can understand the frustration, but I have more difficulty understanding why MP wouldn't recognise a legitimate meta case and respond to it as such (rather than a nonsense case). It may be based on a predisposition to assume epi's cases are not intended to hold merit but are just intended to see what responses come, which is in fact the tack MP took. It's also something epi is well known for doing. But that makes it a very easy 'rote' defense to any epi case.

Overall, I still see MP as town-aligned, and in particular point (1) is very persuasive to me.

A big post defending MP which I find interesting.

All in all we see very little from Golden he mentions that he can read LC well and sees him as being townie and that he has MP as town-aligned. Now knowing that many TS people won't put much merit in why people are killed and having a town aligned read for day 1 isn't that big a deal I think we can discount that MP/LC killed him to look better.

The largest post that stands out to me is what Golden said about LC, however it really doesn't give me a better or worse opinion of LC. If we believe this post had something to do with Golden's death we can glen two things.

LC is mafia and killed Golden before he could get a solid read on him
or
Mafia killed Golden in an attempt to set up LC

Two seems very unlikely for reasons stated above, so I'm leaning to one if this line of thinking is correct. I could also see LC killing Golden day 1. This is nowhere near enough evidence to lynch LC, but i do think it is something to keep in mind.
Besides that I don't see much from my ISO of Golden he was having a slow start and just kind off prodding people. The only other thought that comes to mind is Golden was killed since he was defending MP and the mafia is hoping we lynch MP, but all these theories have no real basis in reality and I wouldn't bet on any of them.

I initially felt good about sig's contribution here with an night kill analysis / ISO of Golden. I feel a bit less inspired now, since I don't think there is any reason to town or mafia read sig for this contribution, seeing as it could have been easily made with a mindset from either alignment. This is still the best post he's made so far though. It at least has the semblance of appearing as though he wants to solve the game, whether that's true or not.

Spoiler: show

It is intriguing that sig is really downplaying his NKA ISO post. I'm not sure what to make of that.

Spoiler: show

A continuation of the prior post, sig is waffly on whether his NKA ISO was helpful or meaningless. That's great and all, but at this point if he really cared about solving the game I think he'd start investigating some players.

==========================================================================================================================

In conclusion, I would place sig in the orange (moderate mafia) section of my rainbow. There is plenty of reason to doubt whether sig's contributions are genuine, though I wouldn't say this is a slam dunk case by any means.

Please throw your thoughts at me regarding this analysis, especially since sig is typical mislynch fodder, and some of this was admittedly difficult for me to analyze 'objectively' given I was sig's biggest target of suspicion during d1. Where do you agree? Disagree? How are you reading sig?

#722

I'm going to do other ISOs now alphabetically, and we'll see how many players I can get through before bedtime.

#723

ISO of a2thezebra

==========================================================================================================================

Days 0-1

Nothing. Only emoticon posts.

==========================================================================================================================

Day 2

Spoiler: show

More emoticons.

Spoiler: show

zebra's first emoticon-free post of the game expresses an unsubstantiated desire to lynch Quin. I don't know what to do with this.

Spoiler: show

Similar unsubstantiated desire to lynch Snow Dog with an accompanying vote.

Spoiler: show

I don't understand this post's existence.

Spoiler: show

Or these.

Spoiler: show

...

Spoiler: show

I already asked zebra to elaborate on this, because I don't know what she was implying.

Spoiler: show

Two presumably gut-based town reads with no substantiation.

==========================================================================================================================

Argh. I don't know what to do with any of this. I happen to know zebra is busy right now RL, but it'd be nice, even imperative, for zebra to come in here and elaborate upon her town and mafia reads. Based on a meta perspective, zebra seems to either play aggressive supertown or gut-based chaos, and this fits the latter category. Unfortunately I do not think it is alignment indicative.

Given I'm not entertaining null reads as a possibility, I guess she is slight mafia. I'm not inspired to give her a town read for any reason.

#724

ISO of Black Rock

==========================================================================================================================

Day 1

Spoiler: show

BR's first post of the game expresses disagreement of the suspicion surrounding LC and me. I do like that she specifically provides reasoning ("convenient"), even if it is brief.

==========================================================================================================================

Day 2

Spoiler: show

BR notes that my emotional reaction is null. That is all.

==========================================================================================================================

This is a tough one since BR only has two posts. I don't see any compelling reason to want to lynch her, but I don't see any reason to town read her either. Slight mafia, I guess.

#725

Epignosis wrote:I voted for Black Rock.

Who opposes her lynch, and why do you oppose it?

I'm not particularly opposed, but I already have one other player I'd rather vote for (sig), and there is still plenty of time left in Day 2 and plenty of players to ISO. So I likely won't be joining you, but we'll see.

What do you think of sig?

#726

ISO of Boomslang

==========================================================================================================================

Day 1

Spoiler: show

Nacho (I believe) made a good point about this post in that if Boomslang thought it was too quiet he could have instead tried to generate content, but I don't think this post is mafia indicative nonetheless. I'd say null. I don't see any compelling reason to view this post in a positive or negative light.

Spoiler: show

I like this post. Boomslang drops his opinion in the thread regarding the Quin d1 self-vote and provides an understandable perspective for his mafia read.

Spoiler: show

I like this post too. Here Boomslang continues defending his interpretation of Quin's behavior against Nacho's opposing interpretation all the while laying out his specific perspective for why he interprets Quin's behavior as mafia-indicative instead of town.

Spoiler: show

This post mirrors much of the feeling I felt when I went to cast my vote for motel room versus Blooper on d1, so I can easily see a genuine perspective. Conversely, there is potential for a mafia Boomslang abandoning his Quin read to join a motel room vote based on the case of someone else, so this could be concerning.

Spoiler: show

Here is his vote for motel room. Similar to previous content, nothing new really. My commentary on the prior post applies here as well.

==========================================================================================================================

Day 2

Spoiler: show

I don't find any alignment indicative content here, but highlighted it to show Boomslang's thoughts re: the missed n1 kill.

Spoiler: show

Further NKA. I don't like the use of the word "interesting" at the end though. Vague. Perhaps Boomslang can elaborate on this thought as to its contribution.

Spoiler: show

I like this post. Boomslang brings Wilgy back into the conversation for d2 suspects.

==========================================================================================================================

Boomslang is still solidly slight town. He could be moderate town potential but I need more town spark before making that declaration (yes, I am very hesitant to assign moderate and strong reads at this early stage), and I am not sure how to interpret his d1 vote.

#727

ISO of DFaraday

==========================================================================================================================

Day 0

Spoiler: show

I still think this is the best check in post ever. Null with respect to alignment though.

==========================================================================================================================

Day 1 - Night 1

Spoiler: show

Game-related questions to the host. Null.

Spoiler: show

There really isn't anything here. This is less than ideal because DFaraday could have at least thrown out thoughts about someone, but he chose not to.

==========================================================================================================================

DFaraday's post history is a whole bunch of null, which isn't particularly out of meta particularly given it is still early in the game, but the lack of any reads whatsoever leaves slight mafia as the only possible conclusion for my read.

#728

I'm getting real tired. I'll finish by taking a look at Wilgy, then catching up / responding to any of these last few posts I haven't read yet, then it's bedtime. Will be back tomorrow to hopefully finish the ISOs before end of Day 2.

#729

nijuukyugou wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:
Long Con wrote:On the other hand, rainbow lists can paint a target on the heads of those who are deemed most Civ.
This is why I hate rainbow lists. On the other hand, I do use them to determine someone's alignment based on how they rate me. Self-centered, perhaps, but it's been working decently well. Mostly hate for rainbows, though.

I think that's all I have for now. Happy to address whatever, or discuss whatever. I feel like a normal human again, both in workload and health

MovingPictures07 wrote:RIP Golden.

Seriously, who the hell would kill Golden in his comeback game? Heartless bastards, that's who.

I haven't caught up, and still won't until I've finished all my preparations for Parks and Recreation Mafia hosting. Sorry. I should be around at some point today though and I'll be ISOing you folks. So be prepared.
So a page full of MP posts. So, normal mafia.
Blooper, can you elaborate on this bolded/underlined bit?
There is a pattern I've noticed about how I am rated by certain players on rainbow lists. I shall elaborate no further for fear of giving away my super secret awesome baddie senses

That's fair, just was curious.

#730

Epignosis wrote:Listen.

Black Rock has two posts. That's it. If she's good, she isn't doing anything to find Mafia. If she's bad, bingo.

Couple that with the knowledge that lots of people missed Night 1 and only one person died, and again BINGO.

Stop being cute.

You could say this (bolded/underlined) about other players though. I'm not inspired.

#731

Scotty wrote:boarding a flight to Cali right now and won't want to mafia on my way to our next stop, so I'll post now and check back tomorrow

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Scotty, got any reads you want to throw at the thread?
As you probably know, I tend not to like to throw around civ reads too early.
But, I get good vibes from you, Epi, and...surprisingly, sig (NOT DOG).
I think zebra is my biggest baddie read right now. I don't remember if she ever got back to me why she suspected Snow and not me. Her behavior is either a flamboyant townie that is full of WIFOM or a blatant baddie. It's hard for me to differentiate but I'm leaning bad.
Of the 3 N1 inactives, I like that Boom responded to it, but I am actually leaning towards him as a slight mafia read. His inference that he was around but just didn't post doesn't sit well with me.

Quin wrote:I'll post this here as well just so people are aware of why my activity or level of effort might drop in this game:

Quin wrote:I'm getting one of my wisdom teeth out tomorrow. Originally I was supposed to get both of my bottom teeth out way back when I got the first one out, but I had some issues getting scans done so the dentist postponed getting one of them. So now I get to go through recovery a second time
My painkillers make me drowsy and between that and the expected repeat of the lack of sleep and pain I went through last time, I probably won't be incredibly motivated for a while
oh dude that sucks. I got all 4 of mine taken out a bit ago, and that was a pain in the ass (mouth). I got dry sockets on the bottoms and had to pack gloves or some shit into them every day to stop the bleeding and pain. Oh god the pain

We need to talk about sig.

#732

Nachomamma8 wrote:This weekend ended up being a weekend that was surprisingly productive for all things that aren't mafia; I'll try to catch up in full in the morning and then will be back to regular activity levels after tomorrow (which will be another mostly quiet day)

Looking forward to your thoughts.

#733

Well, I'm out. See you all tomorrow.

#734

Those were huge. I haven't read them yet, but they must have taken you a long time.

.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:// Method for Monkey Island gameplay
while (alive) {
if (vompatti == alive) {
vote(vompatti);
} else if (a2thezebra == alive) {
vote(a2thezebra);
} else {
vote(self);
}
}

return;
This is too real for me. Fuck coding.

It's one of my favourite posts in the game.

Quin wrote:I'll post this here as well just so people are aware of why my activity or level of effort might drop in this game:

Quin wrote:I'm getting one of my wisdom teeth out tomorrow. Originally I was supposed to get both of my bottom teeth out way back when I got the first one out, but I had some issues getting scans done so the dentist postponed getting one of them. So now I get to go through recovery a second time
My painkillers make me drowsy and between that and the expected repeat of the lack of sleep and pain I went through last time, I probably won't be incredibly motivated for a while

I got 4 impacted wisdom teeth out at once, and I was eating within 24 hours, with no pain or anything. You just gotta have the right surgeon.

#735

Long Con wrote:Those were huge. I haven't read them yet, but they must have taken you a long time. .

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:// Method for Monkey Island gameplay
while (alive) {
if (vompatti == alive) {
vote(vompatti);
} else if (a2thezebra == alive) {
vote(a2thezebra);
} else {
vote(self);
}
}

return;
This is too real for me. Fuck coding.
It's one of my favourite posts in the game.

Quin wrote:I'll post this here as well just so people are aware of why my activity or level of effort might drop in this game:

Quin wrote:I'm getting one of my wisdom teeth out tomorrow. Originally I was supposed to get both of my bottom teeth out way back when I got the first one out, but I had some issues getting scans done so the dentist postponed getting one of them. So now I get to go through recovery a second time
My painkillers make me drowsy and between that and the expected repeat of the lack of sleep and pain I went through last time, I probably won't be incredibly motivated for a while
I got 4 impacted wisdom teeth out at once, and I was eating within 24 hours, with no pain or anything. You just gotta have the right surgeon.

You and Scotty make me feel like such a whinger

#736

Scotty wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I'm not interested in MP right now. I want to give him room Day 2 to get his ideas out there (like he ever needed room for that ), but I want to know who missed a kill. That's a team of four and a team of three. One of those teams fell asleep at the wheel.
Not necessarily- both teams could have vied for Golden. Or one was blocked.

Though I originally thought back in The 3 Kingdoms that they were blocked or something and the entire team did in fact miss the kill on night 1, so this isn't so far fetched, especially considering the missing votes.

I just don't think we necessarily should assume they missed the kill is all.

Guess who missed the Night 1 kill in that game? A team of myself, MacDougall, insertnamehere, and DrWilgy (who was lynched Day 1) and SVS (who had no internet).

sig wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
sig wrote:I do think our mafia members either didn't vote or voted on a non wagon avoiding both major lynches. I do however, believe night kills where submitted and I don't think we should just start lynching lurkers on the off chance an entire team forgot/wasn't around to submit a kill.
On what basis do you believe both kills were submitted?

It is rather rare for kills not to be submitted isn't it? It also requires very little effort to submit a kill. If only one player could do it I might be able to see that argument, however it is very unlikely a whole team was so inactive that they didn't send in a kill.

Okay Quin I was wondering if you had any other reasoning

See above.

Scotty wrote:@HOST Are you at liberty to say the exact number of PMs that were missing last night? And if so, how many?

Question for the thread: so I'm never fully sure of what makes a NK a good one when it comes to the victims' suspicions.
Does it help the killer look more civ if the killer was a suspect of the victims? How about if they were defending? There may not be a correct answer, I'm just curious.

I've nightkilled players because they've suspected me.

I've nightkilled players who haven't suspected me or even mentioned me.

I've nightkilled players who have townread me.

I've nightkilled players who haven't posted in days.

I've nightkilled players who are the most active players in the game.

I've nightkilled mafia teammates (yup).

I've tried nightkilling the host.

A good nightkill is one that's hard to trace. Since nightkills are often full of WIFOM anyway, they're often hard to trace. Have you ever been mafia before? The one time I remember you being mafia, you were lynched Day 1 so couldn't even nightkill lol.

Welcome back motel room.

motel room wrote:Think I'd vote metalmarsh if I had to vote right now

Never mind, get out.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:It's Day 2 and I'm still here!

First order of business; Sockface, are you a member mafia?
Nope! Are you?

I am neither mafia, nor doing much to find them.

#737

Epignosis wrote:Listen.

Black Rock has two posts. That's it. If she's good, she isn't doing anything to find Mafia. If she's bad, bingo.

Couple that with the knowledge that lots of people missed Night 1 and only one person died, and again BINGO.

Stop being cute.

Ok I'll bite.

- break;

vote(blackRock);

#738

Lynch is ending before i get up for work so im down to start the sig train

#739

A rainbow list for MP and I to have a chat about later

. Most of these are substantiated and would ideally do with a more in depth ISO. No specific order, other than the obvious.

Nachomamma8

Boomslang
MovingPictures07
Elohcin/motel room 2.0
Scotty
metalmarsh89
DrWilgy
MacDougall

Vompatti
DFaraday
Snow Dog
nijuukyougou

Black Rock
Soneji
a2thezebra
Epignosis
sig
Long Con

@linki - I was just about to do the same thing before I went to bed. Voted sig.

#740

motel room wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:But I already voted for Snow Dog who is also bad so #YOLO

Snow Dog wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:I want to lynch Quin.

That's right suckers I can talk.
I never thought otherwise.
Your OMGUS historical revisionism game is on point!
I never once posted an opinion on the matter.

Snow Dog wrote:I sense you are trying to rile me. I'll ignore for now.
How come you're not interested in why she thinks you're bad and put a non-changeable vote down, Snow Dog?

I presumed it was a return vote because i voted for her. I am more interested in why she wants to lynch Quin.

#741

a2thezebra wrote:I want to lynch Quin.

.

Why do you want to lynch Quin?

#742

Long Con wrote:Those were huge. I haven't read them yet, but they must have taken you a long time. .

Yeah, they can take a while. The sig one took especially long. I have gotten a little quicker at them over time though.

Curious what thoughts you have on any of them!

#743

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Listen.

Black Rock has two posts. That's it. If she's good, she isn't doing anything to find Mafia. If she's bad, bingo.

Couple that with the knowledge that lots of people missed Night 1 and only one person died, and again BINGO.

Stop being cute.
Ok I'll bite.

break;
vote(blackRock);

Hey MM, what reads do you have at this time?

#744

motel room wrote:Lynch is ending before i get up for work so im down to start the sig train

Why? Did you find my ISO compelling? If so, what specifically compelled you to give sig your vote?

I do feel relatively confident in my findings, but I don't want to start a bandwagon here. Discussion should be had.

#745

Quin wrote:A rainbow list for MP and I to have a chat about later . Most of these are substantiated and would ideally do with a more in depth ISO. No specific order, other than the obvious.

Nachomamma8

Boomslang
MovingPictures07
Elohcin/motel room 2.0
Scotty
metalmarsh89
DrWilgy
MacDougall

Vompatti
DFaraday
Snow Dog
nijuukyougou

Black Rock
Soneji
a2thezebra
Epignosis
sig
Long Con

@linki - I was just about to do the same thing before I went to bed. Voted sig.

Oooooh, a shiny rainbow, I love it! How the hell is Nacho still ahead of me? What do I have to do for you people?

I need to continue my ISO assessments this morning (they will have to wait until after teaching though), so some of these players I don't have super firm reads on. But we have some cognitive dissonance. Why slight town on MM and Wilgy? What did you think of my crappy Wilgy ISO? Why is Snow Dog a null (right?) read? I have more questions but I'll leave it at that for now.

#746

Hey Snowy, why did you vote for zebra?

#747

Am I being too harsh on sig? Are there town interpretations of his behavior where I thought he seemed like he was manufacturing his thoughts? Or do you agree with me that he looks bad? Or does he look even worse than I am assessing? What do you all think? This is important, especially if people are going to come in here and just hop on the wagon. Don't do that. Talk to me and the thread.

BBL for now, more ISOs incoming once I return.

#748

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Snowy, why did you vote for zebra?

i didn't like the vote for motel or you. i had already announced I'd probably go for a low poster and zebra was top of the list.

#749

MovingPictures07 wrote:Am I being too harsh on sig? Are there town interpretations of his behavior where I thought he seemed like he was manufacturing his thoughts? Or do you agree with me that he looks bad? Or does he look even worse than I am assessing? What do you all think? This is important, especially if people are going to come in here and just hop on the wagon. Don't do that. Talk to me and the thread.

BBL for now, more ISOs incoming once I return.

i have found your analysis on on sig quite compelling. What are your thought on Quin?

#750

I will read your Sig ISO again.

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

2014 Sockys
2015 Sockys
Miscellaneous

2014 Sockys
2015 Sockys
Miscellaneous

Wow we're really down to the wire now!