Lost Again Mafia (Season 2) - Game Over

[Epignosis]

MP is good. That lashing out at his accusers tonight? That's good stuff.

I've got Eloh and MP as good. Mafia getting nervous yet?

[Quin]

MP's gone from rationalizing everything he's been saying to just flinging accusations now. I'm going to go sharpen my knives.

What are you talking about?

Spoiler: show

If I weren't the colour of recently squeezed cyst contents then I'd find myself in agreement with this list. I'll do my own later.

yo Quin, you up for lynching MP D4?

Maybe. I'll give you my updated reads before night ends. I do think that my vote will likely go for one of your bottom three tomorrow, though.

You're INH's teammate, aren't you?

[Tangrowth]

MP is good. That lashing out at his accusers tonight? That's good stuff.

I've got Eloh and MP as good. Mafia getting nervous yet?

In the past few months between playing games with Daisy and spectating games where she's played, I think I've found myself a very reliable town tell in her behavior. It's what led me to town read her hard in the Election Night Burglary, and I'm seeing it again here. I also noticed it was missing completely from her P&R game (but I had confirmation there, so ehh). So, unless she's pulling the wool over my eyes, I'd say I'm 97% sure she's town.

So, if you're town, I'm town, and you and I are both right in our spouses being town, then we've damn near solved the game, yeah? Because that just leaves INH, Scotty, Sorsha, and Quin.

Also, I'm dying to know the answer to this:

I'm still convinced Eloh is okay. If she's bad, then good on her and good for you people who saw what I didn't. But I stand by my man. Er, woman.

Is Kate bisexual? A scene with her and Juliet could have ramped up the ratings, know what I mean?

Whom do you suspect?

[Quin]

I'm calling a baddie team of Elo/INH/Quin right now.

I've been gunning for both of my teammates almost exclusively since the game began? Okay.

[Tangrowth]

MP's gone from rationalizing everything he's been saying to just flinging accusations now. I'm going to go sharpen my knives.

What are you talking about?

Spoiler: show

If I weren't the colour of recently squeezed cyst contents then I'd find myself in agreement with this list. I'll do my own later.

yo Quin, you up for lynching MP D4?

Maybe. I'll give you my updated reads before night ends. I do think that my vote will likely go for one of your bottom three tomorrow, though.

You're INH's teammate, aren't you?

I'm just puking gut-based crap into the thread. That should be evident.

I notice you didn't answer my question though.

[Tangrowth]

I'm calling a baddie team of Elo/INH/Quin right now.

I've been gunning for both of my teammates almost exclusively since the game began? Okay.

I don't put anything past you after Mad Max.

But a decent point nonetheless.

[Quin]

I've avoided a lot of questions in this game.

[Tangrowth]

Quin, tell me this. Do you find INH's sudden suspicion of me genuine in any way? If so, show me.

[Quin]

No, I don't. And I don't find your suspicion of me genuine in any way either.

[Tangrowth]

No, I don't. And I don't find your suspicion of me genuine in any way either.

How do you figure?

Why should I town read you? Honest question. Same goes to everyone else, really.

[Tangrowth]

I guess a better question is: How can I address your concern, Quin? What do you need to see from me to believe that I'm being genuine?

[Tangrowth]

[Quin]

No, I don't. And I don't find your suspicion of me genuine in any way either.

How do you figure?

Why should I town read you? Honest question. Same goes to everyone else, really.

The turning point in your suspicion of me seemed to be based on a blatantly sarcastic post. I do not understand why you suspect me because you really only spoke to INH and then drew me as his teammate. I can't fathom how I went from a moderate town to moderate scum based on those posts.

I guess a better question is: How can I address your concern, Quin? What do you need to see from me to believe that I'm being genuine?

I don't have a checklist. Just be town.

[insertnamehere]

Furthermore, DF never was questioning the intentions of the CFD. He used declarative language all game to say that he thought either G-Man or Elo was saved by the CFD, never considered another perspective that they were NOT, and used that to dictate his suspicions all game.

Those are all facts. If you find elsewhere in his ISO that DF was ever open-minded on any of those fronts, and that the assumption of "d1 was a save" is ever missing from any of his suspicions, INH, by all means.

Otherwise, you're misrepresenting.

One could easily say that you're doing the same exact thing, dude, by saying Elo definitively wasn't saved by either CFD's.

It's less of a leap for me that they were saved than it is for me to assume that they weren't, and it's all some wacky coincidence.

Furthermore, DF did consider other factors, and misrepresenting him as some one-issue pony is doing him a disservice.

Here's every post of DF's that talks about Day 1 being a save.

Spoiler: show

Hey guys, has anyone seen Libby around? We were gonna go have a picnic, and she said she was gonna go grab some blankets...



But seriously, I really dislike the CFD shenanigans that occurred here. Going into Day 2, the Soneji voter-dudes are who I'm gonna be looking at.

That was absolute bollocks. Nobody talks about Soneji all day, then with ten minutes to go the votes pile on? That's bloody ludicrous!

If anyone asked me, I'd think the baddies are made up of two Soneji voters and either Eloh, Sorsha or G-Man. This just screams save.

That's just one factor. The bigger issue for me is the Day 1 lynch, which still looks like a blatant save attempt. Since G-Man wasn't being saved, the most logical option is Elo. And of course Rico suspected Elo shortly before his demise.

I think one or two of the Soneji voters were trying to save someone (I think G-Man). Since Rico died I'm feeling either Elo or G-Man is the culprit.

He made 24 posts in this thread and the Hatch thread. Only 1/8th of them said anything about Day 1 being a save.

You're honestly gonna tell me that I'M misrepresenting YOU?

Whatever dude.

[Elohcin]

I got to the end of page 13 and saw there were two more pages to read before I am caught up and all I did was sleep.

The more I hear from MP, the more I find him civ. He asked Epi and I about switching our votes to INH late in the Day. That was a ping for my right off, but after the flip, it makes me think better of MP and not worse. Then there is this from INH.....

All of this despite me and Epi telling him that literally all of his suspicions/thoughts are based on one flimsy assumption: that someone was being saved on Day 1. I think that's ridiculously dubious.

MP's case against DF was mostly based on DF thinking that the D1 Soneji thing was a save-job.

Seems more like MP just wanted to get rid of someone who found him suspicious. Or he was so shocked that someone would find him suspicious for his D1 CFD mislynch that he decided to target him for yet another CFD mislynch.

It's like raaaaain on your wedding day...

I don't get the impression at all that DF cares about solving the game at all. I'd like to lynch him today.

Translation: DF finds me suspicious; get him!

Full disclosure, whenever I read the phrase "solving this game," I roll my eyes.

@ MP - Up until your post on him setting up easy lynches, I hadn't really thought anything of him. In reading the Hatch thread I thought briefly that he seemed more engaged that he normally comes across to me, but I don't think that is necessarily a baddie tell or anything, he is usually disengaged either way I believe. But your post about setting up lynches was a good point. He basically has a lynch lined up no matter what result Elo might flip, which would be a nice place for a baddie to be sitting. It is something to consider.

INH is doing the exact same thing in that post I quoted. I find it equally suspect.

Both DF and INH seem so uninterested in actually hunting for mafia. They're just drawing connections based on incredibly dubious assumptions.

Hey, lookie here:

MP seems so uninterested in actually hunting for mafia. He's just drawing connections based on incredibly dubious assumptions.

See? I can do it too.

Also, once again, "incredibly dubious assumptions" = questioning the intent of a D1 CFD mislynch. That sounds reasonably grounded in logic and fact to me, but then again, I didn't cause a D1 CFD mislynch. I guess MP's perspective is different.

Their games are the epitome of lacking any town spark whatsoever. They don't indicate any consideration of hunting.

Translation: I don't like DF and INH's games and hunting efforts because they implicate me.

Dude, it's a good thing I won the lottery. Otherwise, I'd be broke because of all this discrediting MP is doing to me.

I don't find INH's translations to be good/true/convincing at all.

I am putting INH on the naughty list for now. Like I said, I still have two pages to read, but still.

[Elohcin]

I don't see where DF suspected MP.

Okay, top of page 14. Yes, this. I was going to say this in my post but feared I may have been wrong so refrained. Looky there, I did remember something.

[Tangrowth]

No, I don't. And I don't find your suspicion of me genuine in any way either.

How do you figure?

Why should I town read you? Honest question. Same goes to everyone else, really.

The turning point in your suspicion of me seemed to be based on a blatantly sarcastic post. I do not understand why you suspect me because you really only spoke to INH and then drew me as his teammate. I can't fathom how I went from a moderate town to moderate scum based on those posts.

I guess a better question is: How can I address your concern, Quin? What do you need to see from me to believe that I'm being genuine?

I don't have a checklist. Just be town.

Tinfoil. It seemed in the moment like you two were conspiring against me. I also didn't like this post:

My rainbow list currently has no town reads.

But I'll fairly re-assess. Like I said, it was gut-based drivel. In reality you're probably not that low, or other people are below you that weren't there.

Also, you didn't answer my question about why I should town read you.

[Tangrowth]

Furthermore, DF never was questioning the intentions of the CFD. He used declarative language all game to say that he thought either G-Man or Elo was saved by the CFD, never considered another perspective that they were NOT, and used that to dictate his suspicions all game.

Those are all facts. If you find elsewhere in his ISO that DF was ever open-minded on any of those fronts, and that the assumption of "d1 was a save" is ever missing from any of his suspicions, INH, by all means.

Otherwise, you're misrepresenting.

One could easily say that you're doing the same exact thing, dude, by saying Elo definitively wasn't saved by either CFD's.

It's less of a leap for me that they were saved than it is for me to assume that they weren't, and it's all some wacky coincidence.

Furthermore, DF did consider other factors, and misrepresenting him as some one-issue pony is doing him a disservice.

Here's every post of DF's that talks about Day 1 being a save.

Spoiler: show

Hey guys, has anyone seen Libby around? We were gonna go have a picnic, and she said she was gonna go grab some blankets...



But seriously, I really dislike the CFD shenanigans that occurred here. Going into Day 2, the Soneji voter-dudes are who I'm gonna be looking at.

That was absolute bollocks. Nobody talks about Soneji all day, then with ten minutes to go the votes pile on? That's bloody ludicrous!

If anyone asked me, I'd think the baddies are made up of two Soneji voters and either Eloh, Sorsha or G-Man. This just screams save.

That's just one factor. The bigger issue for me is the Day 1 lynch, which still looks like a blatant save attempt. Since G-Man wasn't being saved, the most logical option is Elo. And of course Rico suspected Elo shortly before his demise.

I think one or two of the Soneji voters were trying to save someone (I think G-Man). Since Rico died I'm feeling either Elo or G-Man is the culprit.

He made 24 posts in this thread and the Hatch thread. Only 1/8th of them said anything about Day 1 being a save.

You're honestly gonna tell me that I'M misrepresenting YOU?

Whatever dude.

....I NEVER SAID EITHER OF THESE THINGS.

INH, seriously, if you are town and you want us to have a constructive conversation, politely I'm going to have to tell you to go back and reading my freaking posts. I'm not going to respond to you if you keep throwing out blatant misrepresentations literally every time you talk about me, because that's all you've done.

First you insinuated that I wanted DF gone because he suspected me... and he never named me by name.

Furthermore, in here, I've never said that Elo and G-Man were never saved. I just thought the notion was incredibly dubious, because I initiated the CFD, and I know I'm town, Daisy joined me and I'm pretty sure she isn't town, and generally it's much more common that mafia members will try to pile on various town wagons on d1 precisely for this reason. All I've said all game is that there's no reason to believe there was a save any more than there's reason to believe that there wasn't a save and everyone who had votes on d1 was town. I've never debunked or "definitively" said there wasn't.

Also, I never said that's all DF posts said; I said that the ONE ASSUMPTION that dictated all of his suspicions was that "there was a d1 save". This is true. If you can find literally any suspect that DF had that wasn't dictated by this one flimsy assumption, INH, by all means.

From now on, I won't respond to you unless you please illustrate things that I've said with quotes and your accompanied interpretation, because this conversation isn't constructive if you're going to continually misrepresent me.

[Tangrowth]

INH, I never got a response to this post, and I'd like one because I'm trying to determine whether you're a desperate baddie making a play on mislynching me tomorrow or whether you genuinely believe I'm bad.

My rainbow list currently has no town reads.

Why?

why not?

some of us are better at seeing town reads than others.

Sorsha's the one I have the best view of, but not by much

What is that view? Why is she your top read?

it's like I went through some kind of...procedure of removal...in my mind, and Sorsha was the one who rubbed me wrong the least. She's the least objectionable, not the most commendable. Hence the yellow hue.

I don't understand your first response. What does that mean?

But why? What about Sorsha rubs you wrong the least? What has she done that's least objectionable?

[Tangrowth]

I guess a better question is: How can I address your concern, Quin? What do you need to see from me to believe that I'm being genuine?

I don't have a checklist. Just be town.

Well, apparently the fact that Soneji, G-Man, and DF were all "town" wasn't enough, so I thought it was a fair question.

[Tangrowth]

The problem with INH's strategy, if he is mafia, is that he could have selected a different player to tunnel out of the end of d3 and convinced someone more easily to vote for them, Elo, Sorsha, and Scotty I think would have little resistance.

Since we're going into LYLO tomorrow, the tides turning on me in the moment appeared blatantly sinister, but if that is the case, it seems to be a completely reactive and perhaps poor mafia strategy.

I also am not sure INH would argue with me with such conviction and with such blatant misrepresentations if he were mafia. It seems over the top.

[Tangrowth]

Fellow townies, whoever you are, I can't stress enough how important d4 is going to be. I'm not sure how Golden is going to handle it, but since we are already down 2 power roles and likely don't have the third, it's incredibly likely that if a townie votes another townie tomorrow, the other mafia will pile on and we'll lose instantly. Let's try to keep that from happening. Assess everyone.

[Tangrowth]

The problem with INH's strategy, if he is mafia, is that he could have selected a different player to tunnel out of the end of d3 and convinced someone more easily to vote for them, Elo, Sorsha, and Scotty I think would have little resistance.

Since we're going into LYLO tomorrow, the tides turning on me in the moment appeared blatantly sinister, but if that is the case, it seems to be a completely reactive and perhaps poor mafia strategy.

I also am not sure INH would argue with me with such conviction and with such blatant misrepresentations if he were mafia. It seems over the top.

Following this train of thought, if INH is mafia, Quin being his teammate makes little sense. There were moments, both d1 and d3, when INH legitimately could have gotten lynched, and I'm not sure Quin is THAT ballsy to risk going after his teammate relentlessly all game. I think I was suffering tinfoil and recency bias a bit too much when I threw that out there.

Funny what a little backing away emotionally and accompanied sleep will do for a person.

[Tangrowth]

I'd like to hear more from Epignosis, Scotty, and Sorsha in particular.

[Elohcin]

I'm calling a baddie team of Elo/INH/Quin right now.

Why would I be teammates with Quin? That makes no sense at all MP. Listen, I think you are civ. But I also think you need to take a step back to evaluate your read on me here. I called out Quin for THREE days. And I called out INH today. You all were so convinced that Quin was claiming a power role to distract the baddies. I thought he was doing it b/c he knew he wasn't in trouble of being killed b/c he WAS a baddie. Now how do you change your story on that topic? Was I correct on the matter? Would I call out a teammate like that if I were bad and if I were correct on that matter. Your reads are getting all jumbled, MP. I think the baddies are Scotty/Sorsha, INH, and Quin. I think that makes a lot more sense.

I know Scotty is a new name for me to throw around, but I just about forgot he was even playing

[Tangrowth]

I'm calling a baddie team of Elo/INH/Quin right now.

Why would I be teammates with Quin? That makes no sense at all MP. Listen, I think you are civ. But I also think you need to take a step back to evaluate your read on me here. I called out Quin for THREE days. And I called out INH today. You all were so convinced that Quin was claiming a power role to distract the baddies. I thought he was doing it b/c he knew he wasn't in trouble of being killed b/c he WAS a baddie. Now how do you change your story on that topic? Was I correct on the matter? Would I call out a teammate like that if I were bad and if I were correct on that matter. Your reads are getting all jumbled, MP. I think the baddies are Scotty/Sorsha, INH, and Quin. I think that makes a lot more sense.

I know Scotty is a new name for me to throw around, but I just about forgot he was even playing

Why that combination? I mean, if you could succinctly summarize why you think the behavior of those players displays mafia-aligned behavior, and why the behavior of players you DIDN'T include in your fictional team, that'd be great. I know you've talked about it before, but just brief little blurbs about each player would be nice.

I'm remaining open-minded myself, hence why I said "right now" in that quote you're responding to. I don't think I'd agree with last night MP right now. I'm not sure what I would say right now. I need to dig through ISOs first... I hope I have time to.

[Tangrowth]

My schedule is going to be pretty busy today and tomorrow, but I'll squeeze whatever time I can during that frame (assuming the mafia kills someone other than me... which I think is very likely) to digging through ISOs and trying to as fairly re-assess everyone as possible. If I somehow don't survive the night, make sure you all do this.

Even one miscast vote tomorrow could screw our chances to win.

[Elohcin]

I'm calling a baddie team of Elo/INH/Quin right now.

Why would I be teammates with Quin? That makes no sense at all MP. Listen, I think you are civ. But I also think you need to take a step back to evaluate your read on me here. I called out Quin for THREE days. And I called out INH today. You all were so convinced that Quin was claiming a power role to distract the baddies. I thought he was doing it b/c he knew he wasn't in trouble of being killed b/c he WAS a baddie. Now how do you change your story on that topic? Was I correct on the matter? Would I call out a teammate like that if I were bad and if I were correct on that matter. Your reads are getting all jumbled, MP. I think the baddies are Scotty/Sorsha, INH, and Quin. I think that makes a lot more sense.

I know Scotty is a new name for me to throw around, but I just about forgot he was even playing

Why that combination? I mean, if you could succinctly summarize why you think the behavior of those players displays mafia-aligned behavior, and why the behavior of players you DIDN'T include in your fictional team, that'd be great. I know you've talked about it before, but just brief little blurbs about each player would be nice.

I'm remaining open-minded myself, hence why I said "right now" in that quote you're responding to. I don't think I'd agree with last night MP right now. I'm not sure what I would say right now. I need to dig through ISOs first... I hope I have time to.

Is it rude to ask you to just reread my posts? I'm just really not feeling well...got a cold Sunday night and its kicking my butt.

[Quin]

Starting my ISO's with Scotty; in some cruel twist of fate his lack of presence makes him one of the better looking people on my list purely by the fact that he hasn't done much of significance.

Spoiler: show

Well wouldja look at that? If no one moves their asses, we got 2 people on each location. Quin and that faraday guy in hat hell hatch, and me and twinkle toes rubbin kneecaps on the beach.

We comfy with that? It would be suicide if a kill happened to any of us and they ain't killin otherwise

Coward covered this in the rules already:

3) Each day, declare whether you will spend the night at the hatch or on the beach. You may only be killed by a killer in your midst at your location. If you don't declare a location, you will be considered to be spending part of the night at each and therefore can be killed by any killer at any location. If a killer does not choose a location, they cannot kill.

If no one else claims a location for the night, then those non-claimers will be considered to be at both locations. By my count, we've got six location claims and seven undecideds:

Beach Bodies
-Scotty
-Soneji

Hatchlings
-DFaraday
-Elohcin
-Quin
-Ricochet

Undeclared
-Dom
-Epignosis
-G-Man
-insertnamehere
-MovingPictures07
-Sorsha
-Spacedaisy

What if we took a chance on leaving things where they are as of right now. If the seven of us who haven't claimed a bunk for the night continue to withhold a claim, then no baddies among us get to kill. If there's a kill tonight, we'll know at least one of the six claimers is a baddie. The baaddie(s) among the six would almost certainly kill one of the seven undeclared, thereby narrowing down two fields at once. A baddie among you six could always just abstain but how long would they be willing to risk that strategy?

Arghhh I totally misread that. I don't have my glasses.

I think it's in our best interest, and I mean OUR, to declare a location so we're not in some limbo. That's just be wrong.

The highlighted 'and I mean OUR' stands out to me. I don't have a strong opinion on it. It's just weird.

Spoiler: show

I literally hopped on here last second to vote and saw I had voted so I voted Soneji. To save myself

I don't feel bad about his self-preservation vote. I believe I made a point earlier in the game that Scotty deserves a tentative town read for doing so because it was placed at the very last second and Scotty had basically no presence at EoD and could have easily just sat out the lynch and come up with some excuse if he were bad.

In this and his follow-up post, he's analysing the consequences of the lynch given that we're separated. His scrutiny of the fact that the beach buds should, by rights, be voting among the hatchlings is a good look.

---

I think Scotty is good. His unexplained inactivity these last few phases hasn't helped supplement that very much, which I would not be particularly impressed about if he turns out to be bad.

My ongoing rainbow list:

Scotty

[Quin]

Nevermind. Blatant contradiction.

Scotty

[Quin]

Sorsha

---

Begins his Day 1 with Michael role-play. Doesn't really contribute much content in the early phase phase. The tin-foiler in me wonders whether he's got a power-role which made it necessary for him to do that. His shtick ended Day 2, so maybe going to the beach worked out for him in that respect. Or maybe he just got bored.

Spoiler: show

Constrained by dinner prep. My three baddie suspects are:

1. Sorsha
2. Rico
3. MP07

Voting Sorsha for now. Her use of roleplay has resulted in the lowest level of content.

How much content is really expected in a day one? Plus, you've been "suspicious" of me since I made my first post in the game entirely for what happened on the show between our characters.

I'm just looking for my son. You never answered me earlier if you had seen him.


WWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALT!

Suggests there's a limit to how much content should be expected to be put out on Day 1. Yuck. I think she's taking G-Man's initial suspicion of her too literally. He was civ, and by all rights should have undoubtedly been scum-hunting, so there was probably something in your posts he disliked, such as your reliance on role-play which he covered later.

Spoiler: show

Constrained by dinner prep. My three baddie suspects are:

1. Sorsha
2. Rico
3. MP07

Voting Sorsha for now. Her use of roleplay has resulted in the lowest level of content.

How much content is really expected in a day one? Plus, you've been "suspicious" of me since I made my first post in the game entirely for what happened on the show between our characters.

I'm just looking for my son. You never answered me earlier if you had seen him.


WWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALT!

Her decision to hold her vote when votes are changeable doesn't make sense to me. It's like she's just trying to avoid upsetting anyone.

Here, she has a similar opinion to Scotty in that she wants to look at the hatchlings for a vote. Good.

Nevermind. Her reasoning is less bullocks than Scotty's is though.

Ongoing rainbow list:

Sorsha
Scotty

[Quin]

Sorsha is a female, there should be no mistake.

[Quin]

Epignosis:

---

Spoiler: show

Scotty jumped on the end of that wagon at the last second after it had already taken charge. He hadn't voted before then AFAIK, so I might actually be inclined to civ read him for that. If he were bad, maybe he would've just not voted.

I saw that Sorsha had voted Scotty right after I did, and Scotty jumped on Soneji right after that.

I don't know how likely it'll be, but if we flipped either a bad Scotty tomorrow, I think we could clear Epi as town. I don't think Epi would deny his teammate civ-cred like this.

Spoiler: show

Living Hatch people:

DFaraday
Elohcin
Insertnamehere
MovingPictures07
Quin

The exchange between Elohcin and Quin gave me the impression that both are good. Despite my opinion about her, Quin's response wasn't to consider that Eloh is, in fact, good, but rather to latch on to DF's idea that we are teammates. Quin's justification for considering that idea is weak- that I should have been moved in some way by how Eloh considered voting Sorsha (i.e., someone on the beach and not in the hatch), but I'm not. Mechanics are not in the forefront of Eloh's mind. Notice how she keeps asking Quin that same question over and over. I say she genuinely doesn't know, and if she had BTSC, she could have asked that question in there, got her answer, and kept quiet about the matter in the thread. Instead, she's gone after Quin relentlessly. That says civilian to me, and I am more convinced about her goodness than I am about Quin's.

As one might infer, I am suspicious of DFaraday. In the Hatch, he stuck to the idea that someone was being saved Day 1, and he named G-Man and Eloh. Now that G-Man is gone, DF sticks to his theory and can conveniently default to Eloh for his Day 3 vote. Now he names me as Eloh's teammate. Not good, heroin-head.

Now MP...

I'd also prefer to vote Elo over G-Man myself, but I'm not really sold on Elo being a worthwhile vote.

I feel tentatively OK about Sorsha's response, even though I find it ironic that she displayed a willingness to vote someone for RPing/low content. I don't really want to vote for her at this point either.

CFD on someone else?

...suggested the out-of-nowhere train against Soneji. G-Man was good, and if you accept that Eloh is good as I do, then this means that an evil MP would have no reason to suggest randomly jumping on someone else. If he is bad, it means he took a really unnecessary risk for Day 1.

INH was indignant about G-Man holding his cards to his chest and...that's about it. He didn't follow up on his Quin suspicion at all in the Hatch except to color the name orange. I have no reason to believe insertnamehere is a civilian based on any of that.

Of the hatchlings, I am most likely to vote DFaraday and least likely to vote Eloh or MP.

I don't think this is the most genuine thing I've read. For starters, Epi is a man of statistics, so I'll use my brain for once to make a point. He should have an opinion beyond having no opinion as to Eloh's possible vote for Sorsha, because there was between a 20%-60% chance that we'd lynch a baddie if we voted out a hatchling, while the chance of lynching a bad beach-goer yesterday was only between 0%-40%. So, yes. You should have had an opinion.

Additionally, he says that MP was responsible for the CFD on Soneji. That's false. I was. He's just the one who put the phrase 'CFD' out there.

Ongoing rainbow list:

Sorsha
Scotty
Epignosis

[Quin]

Spoiler: show

Considering that there is a 5.3% chance of repeating as a baddie cover role, I'm willing to chance it on Day 1.

This is the same like, logical fallacy that makes roulette players bet on red after a big string of blacks.

It's like saying I'm more likely to have a baddie role in this game because I've recently had a string of civilian roles.

If the cover roles really are randomly chosen, there's literally no reason to trust DFaraday and Epignosis for being Charlie and Kate.

I think I missed a step. Where did we learn that the cover roles were chosen randomly?

I like that she's being inquisitive. If she had a cover role maybe she wouldn't have scrutinised the issue so much.

Spoiler: show

Why MP, brotha?

He's one of few who hasn't declared his location yet. I'm inclined to believe the baddies would wait until later on so they can go to wherever their target goes.

I could buy this reasoning on Day 2 or later, but I don't think it's a strong enough reasoning for a vote at this point. Why did you choose him over the others who have not declared?

I had to get her to walk me through her thinking for this post, which was essentially that she believes Day 1 would be spent by baddies trying to scout for power roles rather than positioning themselves along with their targets. I agreed with it then, but now it just seems false because baddies could easily do both. If either MP or Daisy flips bad, I think the other is too.

Spoiler: show

I got no feeling at all on them, and what are we feeling about Scotty? I would say those three have left no major impression on me.

No feelings about 3 players, 2 of which are dead civs.

She spearheaded the beach thread, where she could easily have gone with the flow of inactivity if she were bad. I'd lean civ on it, but there's no strong reason for why I shouldn't see it as a baddie just trying to control the thread.

Spoiler: show

I'm looking at the votes and it looks like it's tied at the moment. I'm going to place my vote with the people I find more trustworthy because I can go either way on this one. I'm voting DFaraday.

I still don't like her DFaraday vote. Her justification isn't even because she suspects DFaraday, it's because she wants to be on a wagon with people she trusts. There were two hours between where she listed her intended votes of Eloh, Scotty or Sorsha and this was her only post in between:

Spoiler: show

@ MP - Up until your post on him setting up easy lynches, I hadn't really thought anything of him. In reading the Hatch thread I thought briefly that he seemed more engaged that he normally comes across to me, but I don't think that is necessarily a baddie tell or anything, he is usually disengaged either way I believe. But your post about setting up lynches was a good point. He basically has a lynch lined up no matter what result Elo might flip, which would be a nice place for a baddie to be sitting. It is something to consider.

Disappointing. I don't think a span of two hours with one post of discussion is enough to move someone from 'Hadn't really thought about him' to 'I'm voting him', when her other suspects have been rationalised and talked about over the course of multiple days.

Spoiler: show

Why would you have not voted for Scotty? I don't know if it was a bad choice, but it makes no sense to flip your vote all over the place and not give any reason why you are voting for that person. And the fact that Scotty (the person you said you wanted to vote for) had already voted for him, it makes even less sense to me. At least I had a reason for my vote.

As far as the assessment of me, I can understand why he thinks that. He's wrong, I was not aware voting for G-Man would prevent Elo from dying. I wasn't saving her. I wasn't saving her the first time either. But I can understand why it might look that way yes. My eyeroll was not about that it was about the fact that of course you would jump on that, considering everything I've said before that about you.

Right now I could see casting a vote for Elo, Scotty, or Sorsha right now. Probably in that order. Though I might be willing to swap Scotty and Elo, I don't know. Epi's defense of her is holding me back, because he usually seems to be right, but she has gotten good at fooling him I've noticed, so yeah... Meh.

I don't like Spacedaisy's vote, especially considering this post. DFaraday wasn't even on her radar.

This is true, he wasn't. I pointed that out myself in my response to MP. Because he brought something to my attention I really hadn't thought about. The fact that DF was setting up the follow up lynches no matter how Elo's lynch might result. That is shady to me in a big way, but it wasn't even something I was considering until it was pointed out to me. New information Quin, it can change your perspective. As well as lots of conversation about one of the two forerunners for my vote, some of those arguments changed my opinion.

This does put me at ease about my earlier worries slightly. You don't have to be involved in the discussion for your opinion to be swayed, I guess.

---

My gut is screaming bad when I look at Daisy, but her posts make me think less so. My intuition usually sucks so I'm torn.

Ongoing rainbow list:

Sorsha
Scotty
Epignosis
Spacedaisy

[Quin]

Spoiler: show

so if the killer doesn't pick a side, RE: Beach or Hatch, he doesn't get to kill.

Is there any way we can take advantage of that?

@Golden: Can you tell us if there are multiple killers or not?

If there's only one, we could have half the players on each side, see who gets killed, then redistribute the witnesses onto opposite sides and see who gets bumped off until one person, the culprit, is left.

It'd be some kind of procedure of removal.

I appreciate that he came right out of the gate with mechanic analysis and strategy. However, the fact that he's strategising around something before his question is even answered feels like overcompensation.

I guess the real quandary facing us is that if half of us go to the hatch, and half of us go to the beach, and someone from the hatch is killed, do we automatically clear everyone on the Beach? That seems like it could potentially backfire and be taken advantage of.

The answer to this question is obvious so I don't understand his motivation for asking it in the first place.

I feel like it's best to be upfront, y'know, to help the group out.

So, I'm Hugo Reyes, and I'm a vanilla civ. Dudes.

Also, the numbers are bad.

INH, I think you were scouting for potential power roles. What say you to this assertion?

I'd say you're wrong. Singling me out for roleclaiming when a bunch of other people did it as well just doesn't make sense to me, dude. I, like, didn't try to force anyone else to roleclaim or do anything like that. I just didn't see a downside to admitting that I'm a vanilla civilian.

This response sounds genuine. I'd expect a more brash and over-defensive response from a baddie.

Spoiler: show

I want to know where people's thoughts are, so I'm breaking the '1st to vote' stigma with a vote for INH.

why

I want to know where people's thoughts are, so I'm breaking the '1st to vote' stigma with a vote for INH.

Why him? You want to know people's thoughts. Tell us your own thoughts on INH.

I did, nerds

I feel like it's best to be upfront, y'know, to help the group out.

So, I'm Hugo Reyes, and I'm a vanilla civ. Dudes.

Also, the numbers are bad.

INH, I think you were scouting for potential power roles. What say you to this assertion?

I no longer think this.

Okay, dude. Then why is your vote on me?

I'm just gonna put my vote on you until you either give another explanation for why you suspect me, or you remove your vote.

I don't like this or his follow up to this. The vote isn't based on suspicion. It's retaliatory. Immediately after this post, I moved my vote and told him as much and for the next one or two hours after this he was active in the thread and did not reciprocate as promised.

Spoiler: show

I hate to break a promise, like how I said I'd inventory and ration out all of the Hatch food, and I just ended up giving it away to everyone, but I'm keeping my vote on Quin for the time being.

I don't like his reasoning for suspecting me, and I don't like his switcharoo over to MP and then back.

He just seems a little desperate to point his finger at someone for what are, in my opinion, kinda arbitrary reasons. It's enough for him to get a Day 1 vote from me.

If I was going to vote for anyone else, it'd probably be G-Man. That weird and obviously wrong logic behind wanting to clear Epi and Faraday (who is confusingly not playing as Faraday) just keeps annoying me, like a piece of cilantro stuck in my teeth.

Then again, he's the dude out here providing the most content, and I think some of his wack-o theories have something to them.

I don't like this at all. He doesn't talk to me, he just says he doesn't like it and leaves for the day.

He says he'd kill Rico if he was bad. Dead Rico. Some fantastic WIFOM ammunition.

In this post he paints G-Man's witholding of updated reads as much worse than it is and doesn't consider the benefit in that the information we get in the end will be higher quality. I made a post in my hatch ISO that goes into more detail.

Spoiler: show

Dinner time, BBL.

Linki: Well, fuck. RIP DF. I'm sorry I was wrong, but I don't regret my decision; I still stand by my assessment.

Now I suppose it's time to re-assess again.

Yep.

RAINBOW LIST:

Sorsha
Epignosis
Scotty
Quin
Spacedaisy
Elochin
MovingPictures

Not a single dude deserves above a yellow, in my book. MP and SD hijacked and hoodwinked the lynch away from Elo for the third consecutive time. Good job with the shell game. I'm still not 100% sold on SD and Elo being bad, SD could've made a mistake the last couple days, and Elo could be a smokescreen false-flag type deal. If Elo is good, I think Quin must be bad. (Insert "FALSE EQUIVALENCY WEE WOO WEE WOO SIRENS" here)

Scotty, Epi, and Sorsha I have little to no impression of. Scotty booked a trip on the MP Mislynch CFD Express D1, and then disappeared. Epi believes Elo is civ, which either looks good or bad depending on her alignment. Sorsha's the one I have the best view of, but not by much. She still gladly followed MP on a witch hunt today.

INH's list is coming together as a near perfect mesh of my own. I like that. I struggle to think it's fabricated to earn my favour, either.

---

Contrary to Daisy, most of his posts suck. But I'm just starting to feel like I should trust him, even though he sucks.

Ongoing rainbow list:

Sorsha
insertnamehere
Scotty
Epignosis
Spacedaisy

[Quin]

I thought I'd be done by now but I've got to go and run some errands. Hopefully I can finish before night ends. If I don't and I'm killed tonight someone should follow up with an MP and Eloh ISO. And everybody else. Everybody should do everybody. Just like high school.

[Elohcin]

Hey Quin, Is everyone going to be orange-ish? I can't say that's a true rainbow

[Quin]

Hey Quin, Is everyone going to be orange-ish? I can't say that's a true rainbow

Probably.

[Quin]

Spoiler: show

Why MP, brotha?

He's one of few who hasn't declared his location yet. I'm inclined to believe the baddies would wait until later on so they can go to wherever their target goes.

This is logical. If I don't end up having to save myself then I will vote MP.

I'm also going to start keeping a list of those who go after me on Day 1 and see if they end up bad. I think people think I'm an easy target. It will take several games to determine if this is true and to use this info to find baddies, but I'm too lazy/busy with other things to go back and research other games.

So you're willing to vote for me under this logic even though I'm not the last one to declare?

Also, I think that's not going to do you much good. People will suspect you, whether they're mafia looking for a mislynch or townies who actually think you're suspicious. As a townie I have trouble keeping myself from finding you suspicious nearly every game we play together.

I did the same thing Eloh did, yet MP wasn't on my case about voting for him with my reasoning.

Spoiler: show

Mr. Eko's Prayer/Jesus Stick - Lost Again S2 Rainbow #1

G-Man
insertnamehere
Quin
Spacedaisy

DFaraday
Dom
Elohcin
Epignosis
Ricochet
Scotty
Soneji
Sorsha

Why do you town read INH?

Nothing amazing, just a gut-based read. He is active and seems genuine.

Plus in another life I just led a d1 mislynch on him, so maybe I'm less apt to vote for him than I should be.

Not a fan of the second half of this post. Feels like backpedaling.

Constrained by dinner prep. My three baddie suspects are:

1. Sorsha
2. Rico
3. MP07

Voting Sorsha for now. Her use of roleplay has resulted in the lowest level of content.

How much content is really expected in a day one? Plus, you've been "suspicious" of me since I made my first post in the game entirely for what happened on the show between our characters.

I'm just looking for my son. You never answered me earlier if you had seen him.


WWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALT!

If no one produces any game-related content on Day 1, then how do you propose we should find the mafia-aligned players?

Where is your vote going?

Any civ should be scrutinising this Sorsha post. It's a point of parity. Not terribly difficult for a baddie to fake, though.


Most of where I think MP's meat is is probably at the Day 1 CFD and the Day 3 not-really-a-CFD-but-still-felt-like-pretty-much-the-same-thing so I'll do a separate post assuming I survive. I don't know exactly what time day ends so I just wanted to get this out before night ended.

MovingPictures07, pending further reading.

[Golden]

To compensate for earlier late post, I shall be bringing night forward an hour. Death will occur in around ten minutes.

[Golden]

Scotty has died. He was:

Spoiler: show

You are James "Sawyer" Ford. You are one of the good guys. That would never stop you perpetrating a long con, though. Everyone, watch out for those guns.

It is now day 4. You have 48 hours to nail a baddie. It may or may not be lylo. Votes are still changeable, and there is no hammer vote in effect.

[Epignosis]

Hatch

DFaraday -Lynch
Elohcin
G-Man - Lynch
Insertnamehere
MovingPictures07
Quin
Ricochet - Kill

Beach

Dom - Kill
Epignosis
Scotty - Kill
Sorsha
Spacedaisy

From the hatch, that leaves:

Eloh
INH
MP
Quin

I stand by my assessment of Eloh and MP. If I'm wrong, oh well. That means my vote today is going to either Quin or INH.

[Quin]

@Golden - did the baddies have BTSC while we were separated?

[DFaraday]

[insertnamehere]

The problem with INH's strategy, if he is mafia, is that he could have selected a different player to tunnel out of the end of d3 and convinced someone more easily to vote for them, Elo, Sorsha, and Scotty I think would have little resistance.

Since we're going into LYLO tomorrow, the tides turning on me in the moment appeared blatantly sinister, but if that is the case, it seems to be a completely reactive and perhaps poor mafia strategy.

I also am not sure INH would argue with me with such conviction and with such blatant misrepresentations if he were mafia. It seems over the top.

Following this train of thought, if INH is mafia, Quin being his teammate makes little sense. There were moments, both d1 and d3, when INH legitimately could have gotten lynched, and I'm not sure Quin is THAT ballsy to risk going after his teammate relentlessly all game. I think I was suffering tinfoil and recency bias a bit too much when I threw that out there.

Funny what a little backing away emotionally and accompanied sleep will do for a person.

Right now, MP, you're my biggest lynch candidate.

If you think me and Quin are both civ, and you yourself are civ, you need to give me a better alternative here.

GTH, who do you think is the baddie team?

[insertnamehere]

INH, I never got a response to this post, and I'd like one because I'm trying to determine whether you're a desperate baddie making a play on mislynching me tomorrow or whether you genuinely believe I'm bad.

My rainbow list currently has no town reads.

Why?

why not?

some of us are better at seeing town reads than others.

Sorsha's the one I have the best view of, but not by much

What is that view? Why is she your top read?

it's like I went through some kind of...procedure of removal...in my mind, and Sorsha was the one who rubbed me wrong the least. She's the least objectionable, not the most commendable. Hence the yellow hue.

I don't understand your first response. What does that mean?

But why? What about Sorsha rubs you wrong the least? What has she done that's least objectionable?

My first response was based on something you said in GY!BE mafia. It was something akin to "I find it easier to townread people than to scumread them." My mind works the opposite way. I'm verrry hesitant to award a town read to someone, especially in a game where we haven't managed to lynch a civilian yet, and it's LYLO time.

My sole townread in this game was DFaraday. And you lynched him for reasons I disagree with.

When I say that I find Sorsha the least objectionable, it's not that I think aspects of her game play indicate her civvieness, it's that I think everyone else has more scummy aspects.

If you asked me what made Sorsha civ, I'd shrug in your face. But if you asked me what makes every single other player, excluding myself and her, suspicious, I'd be able to list a couple things.

She could still easily do something suspicious, and I'd immediately change my view of her.

[Quin]

I have a job interview this morning I need to psych myself up for, so I'll be in the thread around lunchtime. I have to finish my MP and Eloh ISO's.

[Elohcin]

Good luck, Quin. What are you interviewing for?

[Quin]

Good luck, Quin. What are you interviewing for?

A customer service role at a marketing firm. Not that extravagant but it's a good step in the direction I want to go.

[Golden]

Good luck, Quin. What are you interviewing for?

A customer service role at a marketing firm. Not that extravagant but it's a good step in the direction I want to go.

Is it a power role?