Lost Again Mafia (Season 2) - Game Over

#601

Quin is confronted by complaining customer. He targets customer with a silence.

#602

if only it were that easy in retail...

#603

#604

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Quin is confronted by complaining customer. He targets customer with a silence.

Insanification would be more amusing:

"Peter knavery that you give me guinde money Red King!"

#605

Quin wrote:
Elohcin wrote:Good luck, Quin. What are you interviewing for?
A customer service role at a marketing firm. Not that extravagant but it's a good step in the direction I want to go.

That's how reach goals

#606

sorry for not being as present right now guys, trying to spend some time with Alex before he leaves for a week and a half...

#607

I haven't yet had time for this game. Sorry all. Between spending time with Annie and packing, and then leaving out of Austin tomorrow, it'll be busy. I'll do what I can.

#608

I need to entertain the idea that MP and Eloh are both bad and I've been had. I'll do that later this evening.

#609

Let's break it down.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
insertnamehere wrote:One could easily say that you're doing the same exact thing, dude, by saying Elo definitively wasn't saved by either CFD's.

It's less of a leap for me that they were saved than it is for me to assume that they weren't, and it's all some wacky coincidence.

Furthermore, DF did consider other factors, and misrepresenting him as some one-issue pony is doing him a disservice.

He made 24 posts in this thread and the Hatch thread. Only 1/8th of them said anything about Day 1 being a save.

You're honestly gonna tell me that I'M misrepresenting YOU?

Whatever dude.
....I NEVER SAID EITHER OF THESE THINGS.

INH, seriously, if you are town and you want us to have a constructive conversation, politely I'm going to have to tell you to go back and reading my freaking posts. I'm not going to respond to you if you keep throwing out blatant misrepresentations literally every time you talk about me, because that's all you've done.

You misrepresent and suspect anyone who thinks Elo was saved on Day 1 or 3 by painting them as small minded people who aren't considering the bigger picture. You accuse anyone who suspects you of blatant misrepresentation, forcing them to waste an hour of their life combing through your post history highlighting examples in order to force you to actually answer the points they made against you.

WALL OF QUOTES:

Spoiler: show

MovingPictures07 wrote:
insertnamehere wrote:I really dislike the CFD shenanigans that occurred here. Going into Day 2, the Soneji voter-dudes are who I'm gonna be looking at.
Why wouldn't you look at and evaluate everyone's votes?

Attempting to discourage me from looking at Soneji voters.

MovingPictures07 wrote:"Save" arguments are putting the cart ahead of horse. It's just as likely that the baddies took advantage of a multi-town wagon.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I don't agree with sweeping generalizations, and I think that teammate interactions cannot be accurately surmised until we have one mafia flip. Everyone should be individually assessed for their votes.

Discouraging people from reading D1 as an Elo save attempt; covering his ass.

MovingPictures07 wrote:If anything, I find DF and Elo's predetermined hyperfocus on Soneji voters to be suspicious at face value, but I'm trying not to let disagreements in approach color my vision there too much.

First attempt to cast shade against people who think Elo was saved. Funny how his attempt to not let his vision get colored by disagreements in approach lasted roughly 2 phases.

After this, and in the Hatch thread, MP goes after Elo pretty hard, and votes for her D2. *cough*DISTANCING*cough*

aaaaand then this happens:

MovingPictures07 wrote:
DFaraday wrote:That's just one factor. The bigger issue for me is the Day 1 lynch, which still looks like a blatant save attempt. Since G-Man wasn't being saved, the most logical option is Elo. And of course Rico suspected Elo shortly before his demise.
I found this dubious before, and I still find it dubious.

If anyone is taking advantage of a scummy-seeming town Elo, it's DFaraday.

Interesting back-pedaling. Lemme put on my tinfoil: mayhaps he was attempting to bus Elo D2, but luckily G-Man got the numbers to be eliminated. Plus there was a definite need to distance himself after D1. Now that he has a vote for Elo on his record, he can turn around and start going after the people who think Elo was saved. Tinfoil off.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I could see a universe in which DF and INH are bad and are 'setting up' easy mislynches.

The only person who is mislynching anyone is you, MP. In fact, if you get your wish, and I get lynched today, you'll be personally responsible for 3/4ths of why the civilians lost this game. You're a smart cookie, MP, so I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming you're doing this out of malevolence.

But yeah. We say Elo was saved D1. You go after us for it, while insisting that "you're open to both sides." C'mon. You really expect us to buy you're hemming and hawwing over whether or not Elo and DF were saved?

Whatever dude.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm torn on Elo. I really, really thought she was bad. I'm less inclined to think she is, but I am not completely ignoring the perspective that she's just feigning all of this. Her contributions are weak either way, and I still think her town read of me reads like she has information that I'm town rather than any compelling in-thread reason to believe I'm town.

What exactly made this flippy floppy? Were you tryin' to do your best? You need to lock the door and kill the beast!

Kill it!

But seriously, this explanation for why he went from trying to lynch Elo D2 to trying to lynch her accusers D3 is as vague as a Brian Eno ambient track. Got anything you want to add?

First you insinuated that I wanted DF gone because he suspected me... and he never named me by name.

Furthermore, in here, I've never said that Elo and G-Man were never saved. I just thought the notion was incredibly dubious, because I initiated the CFD, and I know I'm town, Daisy joined me and I'm pretty sure she isn't town, and generally it's much more common that mafia members will try to pile on various town wagons on d1 precisely for this reason. All I've said all game is that there's no reason to believe there was a save any more than there's reason to believe that there wasn't a save and everyone who had votes on d1 was town. I've never debunked or "definitively" said there wasn't.

Also, I never said that's all DF posts said; I said that the ONE ASSUMPTION that dictated all of his suspicions was that "there was a d1 save". This is true. If you can find literally any suspect that DF had that wasn't dictated by this one flimsy assumption, INH, by all means.

I'm sorry MP, but I'm not you. I don't know that when you do suspicious looking things, you mean well because you're a civilian. I just see a person doing suspicious things.

Lemme isolate this one quote from the above:

All I've said all game is that there's no reason to believe there was a save any more than there's reason to believe that there wasn't a save and everyone who had votes on d1 was town.

I disagree with this. With this logic, literally all vote histories are completely inadmissable. You're trying to say that lynching a civilian isn't an inherently suspicious act, and rather the suspicion lies with those who find others for it. That's some weird, flawed, desperate justification-y logic right there.

You expect others to seriously not find people suspicious for lynching a civilian?

Also, you think SD is scum? Where did this come from?

MovingPictures07 wrote:If Daisy is bad, I will record video of myself eating a hat. This is her town game.

Alas, I think the earlier post is a typo, and we shall see no hat-eating videos.

But yeah, I think you and Daisy both are as suspicious as that Henry Gale guy for lynching those two civilians. Sorry, three civilians in Daisy's case.

It's like when Jill Stein says "we need to look into whether vaccines cause autism" and responds to criticism with "what? I never said I think vaccines cause autism, I was just saying we can't definitively rule it out!"

You saying "we can't judge the people who joined either CFD" is pretty much the same as saying "the CFD's weren't save attempts" in my book, no matter how hard you spin it.

Coming up: a special section about how MP's case on DF as well as everything else he's said about him is misrepresenting compost.

#610

First you insinuated that I wanted DF gone because he suspected me... and he never named me by name.

Wrong.

I insinuated that you wanted DF gone because he thought Elo was saved D1, which implicated you. Just him bandying about the idea that it was a save, and basing some suspicions on it was enough for you to both completely discredit and lynch the dude.

Also, I never said that's all DF posts said; I said that the ONE ASSUMPTION that dictated all of his suspicions was that "there was a d1 save". This is true. If you can find literally any suspect that DF had that wasn't dictated by this one flimsy assumption, INH, by all means.

Let's flex our high-school English muscles and analyze the diction of this quote.

ONE ASSUMPTION

dictated all of his suspicions

literally

flimsy assumption

This is the most discrediting "I DON'T AGREE WITH THIS PERSON" language imaginable.

But yeah, let's take MP's sneering little wager, and climb into the ISO time machine to once again analyze DF's posts, because if I don't, MP just won't respond to me.

Nice trick, this. Switching the roles, making your accuser be the one on the defensive while you ignore his points and force him to comb through ISOs.

I'll remember this next time I'm bad, it'll come in handy.

OTHER SUSPICIONS DFARADAY HAD:

Spoiler: show

Anyway, I don't think it's a coincidence that two of Rico's top suspects, G-Man and Elo, were here in the hatch with Rico and he turns up dead. WIFOM and all that, but right now I'd wager it's one of those two.

G-Man looks worse than Elo in this regard since she claimed hatch before Rico did. I mean to get to the other hatch residents as well, but I'm almost likely not voting for any of the beach dwellers this time, since we know for a fact that a baddie is here. Unless someone can present an outstanding case for one of them, I'll be voting someone on our side.

G-Man's reluctance to share throughout this game makes me view him more suspiciously as well.

DFaraday wrote:
Sorsha wrote:And I think it's borderline mean to pick on me for low contribution on day one when that pretty much all I ever have on day one

Sorsha wrote:Lower posters, Scotty and DF declared their locations fairly quickly and skedaddled. That seems a bit suspicious to me, knowing how civs like to tear themselves apart in games- it would benefit them to get business out of the way and then fade out of the convo.

DFaraday wrote:
Scotty wrote:I literally hopped on here last second to vote and saw I had voted so I voted Soneji. To save myself
You had one vote on you, mate. I mean, that's not exactly mortal danger, is it?

DFaraday wrote:
Elohcin wrote:You said, you understand what Quin is doing. You say it's done a lot in small games like this. I am 100% honest in saying that I have NO CLUE what you are talking about. What is done a lot in small games like this one?

Linki.....now see...you are evading my questions too. You and Quin are having yourselves a little laugh in the BTSC thread aren't you?

"LOL, Quin, I'm getting in on this too. I'm going to annoy Eloh just like you have been. It, it, it! :P"
"Good job, Sorsha. We can easily get her lynched if we keep this up. And look, Daisy is being fooled by it all too. That other game where she fooled Epi is really playing in our favor."
"Wassup guy!, DF here. Epi is on to me. :O"

More linki....Quin, I have too much stuff that goes on in my life. I don't remember crap from game to game. Once the game is over, I have to empty out the details so I can function as a business owner, stay-at-home, homeschooling mother of three.

More linki (from SD)I will read in a minute
But if you knew about the power claiming stuff in another game, that doesn't seem the sort of thing you'd up and forget all about. Also, nice triple NO U. Voting Elo.

To compare, here's everything DF said about D1 being a save:

Spoiler: show

Now here's how MP painted DFaraday to the thread. I've bolded some descriptive language MP uses for emphasis.

Spoiler: show

MovingPictures07 wrote:I found this dubious before, and I still find it dubious.

If anyone is taking advantage of a scummy-seeming town Elo, it's DFaraday.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I could see a universe in which DF and INH are bad and are 'setting up' easy mislynches.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Spacedaisy wrote:Why would you have not voted for Scotty? I don't know if it was a bad choice, but it makes no sense to flip your vote all over the place and not give any reason why you are voting for that person. And the fact that Scotty (the person you said you wanted to vote for) had already voted for him, it makes even less sense to me. At least I had a reason for my vote.

As far as the assessment of me, I can understand why he thinks that. He's wrong, I was not aware voting for G-Man would prevent Elo from dying. I wasn't saving her. I wasn't saving her the first time either. But I can understand why it might look that way yes. My eyeroll was not about that it was about the fact that of course you would jump on that, considering everything I've said before that about you.

Right now I could see casting a vote for Elo, Scotty, or Sorsha right now. Probably in that order. Though I might be willing to swap Scotty and Elo, I don't know. Epi's defense of her is holding me back, because he usually seems to be right, but she has gotten good at fooling him I've noticed, so yeah... Meh.
What do you make of DFaraday?

Giving Daisy the opportunity to agree so that her vote doesn't seem random.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Quin v. Elo is increasingly reading town v. town to me. I think our mafia are sitting back and letting town fight it out. I'm inclined to think some combination of DF, INH, Scotty, and Sorsha are our baddies.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Everything about DF's gameplay is really bugging me. This is basically what he's done since the Soneji CFD:

- Soneji voters must be bad! Look at how they mislynched him out of nowhere! They were saving G-Man or Elo for sure.
- Votes for G-Man based on that logic, comes up town. It must be Elo!
- Then proceeds to vote for Elo based on the same faulty logic.

All of this despite me and Epi telling him that literally all of his suspicions/thoughts are based on one flimsy assumption: that someone was being saved on Day 1. I think that's ridiculously dubious.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I don't get the impression at all that DF cares about solving the game at all. I'd like to lynch him today.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Spacedaisy wrote:@ MP - Up until your post on him setting up easy lynches, I hadn't really thought anything of him. In reading the Hatch thread I thought briefly that he seemed more engaged that he normally comes across to me, but I don't think that is necessarily a baddie tell or anything, he is usually disengaged either way I believe. But your post about setting up lynches was a good point. He basically has a lynch lined up no matter what result Elo might flip, which would be a nice place for a baddie to be sitting. It is something to consider.
INH is doing the exact same thing in that post I quoted. I find it equally suspect.

Both DF and INH seem so uninterested in actually hunting for mafia. They're just drawing connections based on incredibly dubious assumptions.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm voting DFaraday as well. He's not considering any perspectives that don't fit his incredibly rigid plan that someone was being saved d1. I think he's using it as a smokescreen to set up consecutive mislynches.

He says, after saying that they should lynch INH next.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Quin wrote:I don't like either of the two who are currently voting with me. But I also don't want to move my vote.
I understand your reservations about Elo. Trust me. I came into this thread ready to grill her to oblivion. I still have doubts lingering in the back of my mind.

But contrast her game with DF and INH's games. Their games are the epitome of lacking any town spark whatsoever. They don't indicate any consideration of hunting.

Take a leap of faith with me.

The complete frankly ridiculous level of hyperbole in the third line makes me snigger like a schoolgirl every time I read it. I'm considering adding "lacking any town spark whatsover" to my signature as a badge of honor.

MovingPictures07 wrote:What puts INH over DF for you specifically?

I'm open-minded to considering INH; we just have to make sure we have a sufficient wagon going. I'd rather vote for DF because I feel ever so slightly more confident about him, but as long as we're lynching one of them over someone else, I don't really care.

MP, you're very resistant to anyone calling D1 a save, because you led the CFD, and you know you're a civilian, so naturally, they must be patently incorrect.

You can maybe see how when I read the sentence "as long as we're lynching one of them over someone else, I don't really care," and you were talking about two people I know to be civilians, I was more than a little bit suspicious of you.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Epi and Elo, would you be willing to vote INH?

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Epi and Elo, would you be willing to vote INH?
Not at this time. I am not convinced he is bad.
Why? What specifically do you find suspicious enough about DF to vote for him, but not about INH?

Now he's trying to lynch me, despite barely interacting with me the entire game, because I've considered D1 to be a save. That, plus my evident complete and utter lack of town spark.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
DFaraday wrote:What the bloody hell bollocks is this? I'm getting lynched for being too focused on one sodding person? MP, you say I am not trying to solve the game. What about all the players just voting with the flow? Is that really better? The baddies are obviously steering the lunches. At this point I bet it isn't even Elo. It's probably the sodding band wagoners.
That's not the reason.

The one assumption that literally your entire game has focused on has been "someone was saved d1", even though you have no reason to believe that to be more likely than all of the vote-receivers being town on d1. I have pointed this out. Epi has pointed this out. You don't seem to care.

MovingPictures07 wrote:DF's response is unconvincing. I'm content with my vote.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Dinner time, BBL.

Linki: Well, fuck. RIP DF. I'm sorry I was wrong, but I don't regret my decision; I still stand by my assessment.

Now I suppose it's time to re-assess again.

MP uses the same loaded language over and over when referring to DFaraday and yours truly. He calls thinking D1 was a save a "flimsy and dubious assumption" upon which "literally DF's entire game" was based upon. Plus, "DF and INH aren't hunting," and "lack town spark."

I'm surprised he didn't just start calling DF "Lyin' Faraday."

#611

i'm gonna go watch the Survivor finale.

Be back later with a summation of everything, and an analysis of how MP responded to me post-D3.

#612

insertnamehere wrote:i'm gonna go watch the Survivor finale.

Be back later with a summation of everything, and an analysis of how MP responded to me post-D3.

Damn I hate having to download it. And be at work while it's on. I'm jealous.

#613

Quin wrote:
Elohcin wrote:Good luck, Quin. What are you interviewing for?
A customer service role at a marketing firm. Not that extravagant but it's a good step in the direction I want to go.

Ah, so turns out me and the company have a definition of what 'customer service means'.

To them, it means door knocking for donations. Pass.

I'm back now, I'll get back into the swing of things soon enough.

#614

My time for this Day phase will pretty much be limited to what I can contribute over the next hour tops, so here goes my best effort at least.

#615

Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm calling a baddie team of Elo/INH/Quin right now.
Why would I be teammates with Quin? That makes no sense at all MP. Listen, I think you are civ. But I also think you need to take a step back to evaluate your read on me here. I called out Quin for THREE days. And I called out INH today. You all were so convinced that Quin was claiming a power role to distract the baddies. I thought he was doing it b/c he knew he wasn't in trouble of being killed b/c he WAS a baddie. Now how do you change your story on that topic? Was I correct on the matter? Would I call out a teammate like that if I were bad and if I were correct on that matter. Your reads are getting all jumbled, MP. I think the baddies are Scotty/Sorsha, INH, and Quin. I think that makes a lot more sense.

I know Scotty is a new name for me to throw around, but I just about forgot he was even playing
Why that combination? I mean, if you could succinctly summarize why you think the behavior of those players displays mafia-aligned behavior, and why the behavior of players you DIDN'T include in your fictional team, that'd be great. I know you've talked about it before, but just brief little blurbs about each player would be nice.

I'm remaining open-minded myself, hence why I said "right now" in that quote you're responding to. I don't think I'd agree with last night MP right now. I'm not sure what I would say right now. I need to dig through ISOs first... I hope I have time to.
Is it rude to ask you to just reread my posts? I'm just really not feeling well...got a cold Sunday night and its kicking my butt.

It's not rude, but I think it's prudent that we all re-assess. We haven't lynched a single member of the mafia. If you're still holding onto weak or Day 1 reasons to town read someone, that's not sufficient. So I was asking for updated reads from you, which I think is a more than fair request.

#616

Quin, I appreciate your ISO analyses; I apologize to you and the rest of town that I haven't been able to hold my end of the deal on performing all of that like I've wanted to. Reading them now.

#617

Epignosis wrote:Hatch

DFaraday -Lynch
Elohcin
G-Man - Lynch
Insertnamehere
MovingPictures07
Quin
Ricochet - Kill

Beach

Dom - Kill
Epignosis
Scotty - Kill
Sorsha
Spacedaisy

From the hatch, that leaves:

Eloh
INH
MP
Quin

I stand by my assessment of Eloh and MP. If I'm wrong, oh well. That means my vote today is going to either Quin or INH.

I'm not impressed. What are your actual thoughts on Quin or INH?

#618

insertnamehere wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:The problem with INH's strategy, if he is mafia, is that he could have selected a different player to tunnel out of the end of d3 and convinced someone more easily to vote for them, Elo, Sorsha, and Scotty I think would have little resistance.

Since we're going into LYLO tomorrow, the tides turning on me in the moment appeared blatantly sinister, but if that is the case, it seems to be a completely reactive and perhaps poor mafia strategy.

I also am not sure INH would argue with me with such conviction and with such blatant misrepresentations if he were mafia. It seems over the top.
Following this train of thought, if INH is mafia, Quin being his teammate makes little sense. There were moments, both d1 and d3, when INH legitimately could have gotten lynched, and I'm not sure Quin is THAT ballsy to risk going after his teammate relentlessly all game. I think I was suffering tinfoil and recency bias a bit too much when I threw that out there.

Funny what a little backing away emotionally and accompanied sleep will do for a person.
Right now, MP, you're my biggest lynch candidate.

If you think me and Quin are both civ, and you yourself are civ, you need to give me a better alternative here.

GTH, who do you think is the baddie team?

I understand. I realize I haven't been a beacon of townie behavior this game or anything. I hope at least, if you are town, you can re-examine everything I've done and the conversations you and I have had especially of late and see enough of a glimmer of my alignment in there, because if you vote for me this game will be over.

I'm mulling over it; nonetheless, I'll be sure to answer your question. It's difficult to answer because we don't even have a single flip by which to judge any teammate interactions, and the Scotty NK really threw me for a loop.

So yeah, let me get back to you on this after I've caught up.

#619

insertnamehere wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:INH, I never got a response to this post, and I'd like one because I'm trying to determine whether you're a desperate baddie making a play on mislynching me tomorrow or whether you genuinely believe I'm bad.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
insertnamehere wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Quin wrote:My rainbow list currently has no town reads.
Why?
why not?

some of us are better at seeing town reads than others.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
insertnamehere wrote:Sorsha's the one I have the best view of, but not by much
What is that view? Why is she your top read?
it's like I went through some kind of...procedure of removal...in my mind, and Sorsha was the one who rubbed me wrong the least. She's the least objectionable, not the most commendable. Hence the yellow hue.
I don't understand your first response. What does that mean?

But why? What about Sorsha rubs you wrong the least? What has she done that's least objectionable?
My first response was based on something you said in GY!BE mafia. It was something akin to "I find it easier to townread people than to scumread them." My mind works the opposite way. I'm verrry hesitant to award a town read to someone, especially in a game where we haven't managed to lynch a civilian yet, and it's LYLO time.

My sole townread in this game was DFaraday. And you lynched him for reasons I disagree with.

When I say that I find Sorsha the least objectionable, it's not that I think aspects of her game play indicate her civvieness, it's that I think everyone else has more scummy aspects.

If you asked me what made Sorsha civ, I'd shrug in your face. But if you asked me what makes every single other player, excluding myself and her, suspicious, I'd be able to list a couple things.

She could still easily do something suspicious, and I'd immediately change my view of her.

This all checks out. Thanks for explaining.

#620

INH, in response to your post:

I think we're misunderstanding each other. I'm not saying that suspicion lies with folks away from the CFD inherently; I think each individual should be judged on a case by case basis. Regarding Daisy and Quin, I found reason to believe both of their intentions are genuine, and I know I'm genuine, so I found DF's view on the CFD myopic. It's natural that we're coming to different conclusions, and perhaps even natural that you're mafia reading me, because we approach mafia very differently and this game in particular we've not seen eye to eye.

No, I don't think SD is scum; that one instance was a typo. I meant the opposite.

Again, everyone should be judged. I'm not saying we can't judge anyone. I'm also not discounting vote analysis; that's an important tool. But without a single mafia flip, vote analysis all comes down to an individual assessment of each player's vote for sincerity or nefarious intentions. And I think it's logically fallacious to automatically cast more suspicion upon players who have voted for confirmed civilians more than those who have voted for [alignment unknown], because generally (in my experience anyway) I've not found that players who consistently vote for flipped townies are any more often mafia-aligned (who were consistently voting on townie wagons) than town-aligned (who were just flat out wrong).

#621

I'm still entertaining INH as mafia, but his contributions are increasingly strikingly genuine to me. I also think him being town fits into the Scotty NK last night (more on that in a minute).

#622

Alright, so I'm caught up and unfortunately am running low on time, and I'll busy all day tomorrow with travels and such.

Here are my thoughts on the Scotty NK:

It surprised me greatly. It doesn't make sense to me if INH is mafia. Given how d3 and post-d3 n3 discussions transpired, it was evident that INH and I would be squaring off today and that not only would he be likely to vote for me today but also I would be relatively likely to return the favor. It also should have been evident that Epi wouldn't be likely voting for me or Elo and that Daisy and I weren't likely going to be voting for each other either. Separately, Quin has consistently been the town tour de force this game. That leaves INH, Sorsha, Scotty, and me as likely candidates for today's vote. Consequently, it strikes me as strategically unsound for INH, as a likely lynch candidate for d4 (LYLO at that) to kill off another possible lynch candidate. Now Scotty hasn't had tremendous heat applied to him (but others haven't either) and we don't often lynch low posters around these parts, but given his absence, I think the potential for some serious heat could have headed his way today. Furthermore, Epi, Elo, Daisy, and even Quin would have been more logical choices for the NK since they have less potential for being today's lynch candidate. So... why the hell would a mafia team with INH, the guy with maybe the most potential to be lynched today after our conversation yesterday and Elo saying he wasn't being convincing, leave any of those players alive in favor of NKing Scotty?

I don't feel inclined to hand my vote to INH. I also don't feel inclined to give it to Daisy or Quin. That leaves just Epi, Elo, and Sorsha.

#623

I've found Epi's contributions genuine throughout this game, but thinking on it, I'm not entirely sure why. His contributions leave a bit to be desired. He doesn't seem too interested in actually uncovering who the mafia are given our current dire situation; where's the sense of urgency?

I flipped on Elo for what I deemed as legitimate reasons during yesterday's lynch, but I've since been questioning that. I find the following things questionable:
- Why is it that Elo dropped the power role thing upon my explanation when a previous similar explanation was given this game?
- Why was Elo unwilling to vote for INH due to seeming "helpful" only to find his arguments against me last Night unconvincing, and thereby seemingly more likely to vote for him? I don't see any assessment from Elo regarding whether INH's contributions are genuine, regardless of how convincing or not they are.
- Why is Elo still essentially clearing me based on my activity level? This still reeks of TMI, and I wonder if I was too quick to overlook this.

Lastly, regarding Sorsha, I'm torn on her. At times I've found her contributions genuine, but there's some definite reason to suspect her, especially her behavior during d3. What was that voting based on her trusting players, yet having no opinion at all on the two players she was considering voting for? I think that's an awful look.

Nonetheless, I'm torn.

#624

I'm not sure what to do. This has been a tough game. And we don't even have a single mafia flip so I hate having nothing tangible by which to judge interactions. I suppose I'll hold off on my vote to see what you all think, continue to mull over all of this, and make some brief time for this tomorrow, but don't expect anything from me other than quick phone posting while I'm at the airport or something.

#625

MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm not sure what to do. This has been a tough game. And we don't even have a single mafia flip so I hate having nothing tangible by which to judge interactions. I suppose I'll hold off on my vote to see what you all think, continue to mull over all of this, and make some brief time for this tomorrow, but don't expect anything from me other than quick phone posting while I'm at the airport or something.

I guess if I had to vote literally at this very moment, it'd be for Elo or Sorsha. I'm going to drop a vote on Sorsha for now.

Sorsha, please come in to this game and provide your suspicions and thoughts in length when you can. Thanks.

#626

Quin wrote:@Golden - did the baddies have BTSC while we were separated?

Can Golden answer this? Or say that this is something he can't answer?

#627

MovingPictures07 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm not sure what to do. This has been a tough game. And we don't even have a single mafia flip so I hate having nothing tangible by which to judge interactions. I suppose I'll hold off on my vote to see what you all think, continue to mull over all of this, and make some brief time for this tomorrow, but don't expect anything from me other than quick phone posting while I'm at the airport or something.
I guess if I had to vote literally at this very moment, it'd be for Elo or Sorsha. I'm going to drop a vote on Sorsha for now.

Sorsha, please come in to this game and provide your suspicions and thoughts in length when you can. Thanks.

I don't like this vote. Aside from you, there are three hatchlings left; Me, INH and Eloh. If you're not bad, then you should know that there is a confirmed baddie among Eloh, INH and myself. Yet you're voting outside of us, where the probability of there even being a single scum there is unknown. You've been making the point that we're in LYLO more than anybody else and yet you're the one taking a risk by choosing the option with an unknown percentage of flipping a baddie, instead of the one where you have between at least a 33% chance.

I voted MP, and I think Eloh is your teammate.

#628

Quin wrote:
Quin wrote:@Golden - did the baddies have BTSC while we were separated?
Can Golden answer this? Or say that this is something he can't answer?

The baddies did have btsc while you were in the hatch/beach threads.

#629

Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:
Quin wrote:@Golden - did the baddies have BTSC while we were separated?
Can Golden answer this? Or say that this is something he can't answer?
The baddies did have btsc while you were in the hatch/beach threads.

My proposed scum-team is MP, Eloh and Spacedaisy.

#630

Sorsha could be subbed in as an alternative to Spacedaisy, but it's unlikely given MP's current vote.

#631

To break down my reasoning:

- MP was on board to lynch Eloh when we were separated into the two threads. Having BTSC, and knowing that there were two separate lynch polls, he would be able to co-ordinate with his team if he had a teammate on the other side to have them place a vote to save Eloh (by either SD or Sorsha), with hopes to lynch G-Man instead.

- MP has since avoided lynching Eloh both days since. I found both the DF wagon yesterday and MP's current vote to be fallicious for reasons I just underlined. I think this is justification enough to create the possibility that he and Eloh are teammates. I think MP placing a vote on Sorsha hints towards the fact that they are not teammates.

Therefore, I think MP, SD and Eloh are bad.

#632

Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:
Quin wrote:@Golden - did the baddies have BTSC while we were separated?
Can Golden answer this? Or say that this is something he can't answer?
The baddies did have btsc while you were in the hatch/beach threads.

Just so clarify, you do mean ALL the baddies, right? Not just whichever baddies were in the same location?

#633

Quin wrote:
Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:
Quin wrote:@Golden - did the baddies have BTSC while we were separated?
Can Golden answer this? Or say that this is something he can't answer?
The baddies did have btsc while you were in the hatch/beach threads.
Just so clarify, you do mean ALL the baddies, right? Not just whichever baddies were in the same location?

The three baddies all had btsc during that period of time.

#634

Cool. If I'm right about this I'm going to buy myself something nice.

#635

rez me pls

#636

MovingPictures07 wrote: Lastly, regarding Sorsha, I'm torn on her. At times I've found her contributions genuine, but there's some definite reason to suspect her, especially her behavior during d3. What was that voting based on her trusting players, yet having no opinion at all on the two players she was considering voting for? I think that's an awful look.

Nonetheless, I'm torn.

I'm not always going to come up with a novel reason to be suspicious of someone. By saying I trusted certain players I mean that I trust their assessment of the players/situations and agree with them.

#637

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Hatch

DFaraday -Lynch
Elohcin
G-Man - Lynch
Insertnamehere
MovingPictures07
Quin
Ricochet - Kill

Beach

Dom - Kill
Epignosis
Scotty - Kill
Sorsha
Spacedaisy

From the hatch, that leaves:

Eloh
INH
MP
Quin

I stand by my assessment of Eloh and MP. If I'm wrong, oh well. That means my vote today is going to either Quin or INH.
I'm not impressed. What are your actual thoughts on Quin or INH?

My thinking is along the same lines as Epi here with regards to the hatch people- we know that at least one of these players is the killer. The difference being that I think Quin is the least likely to be bad. If I ranked the hatchlings it would be Quin, MP, INH, Eloh. Including the beach bums I'd put Epi with MP and INH and Daisy a step down from Quin.

#638

I didn't get to this last night because I was too busy punching in the numbers. I won my first DFS tournament.

Not that money does any good on this island.

Setting aside my preconceptions:

Spoiler: show

"just ???? on Eloh." Then a minute later:

Spoiler: show

MP- You agreed with me about Eloh but you said you were ??? about her (where ??? stands in contrast to "townreading") a minute prior. How does seeing nothing that suggests someone is bad make you ??? about her?

Spoiler: show

I don't get anything from this, but I'm including it anyway. This on the other hand:

Spoiler: show

This sudden shift came after the Hatch, so time to go there.

Spoiler: show

Eloh never responded to MP about the "obvious lack of congruence," but said that she thinks MP would be making this more of a priority if he were bad. I don't agree with that assessment and I don't think MP would either.

Spoiler: show

The only context of their Hatch exchange that makes any sense to me if they are both bad is that Eloh flubbed her rainbow list and MP felt the need to call that out before anybody else did.

Spoiler: show

MP did leave the door open to go either way with his vote (despite calling G-Man good Day 1).

Spoiler: show

That underlined segment is ironic given the criticism of how "intent" DF was.

Spoiler: show

This is an unnecessary push if MP and Eloh are teammates. Quin raised the point that Mafia would have the advantage of seeing both sides, so that's worth investigating.

Spoiler: show

Dom cast his Beach vote for G-Man the evening before, so G-Man already had one on that side.
MP cast his vote for Eloh at 6:09pm EST after G-Man had two Hatch votes.
G-Man voted Eloh 6:59pm EST
Quin followed suit at 7:02pm EST.
Spacedaisy cast the last vote on the Beach side at 7:15pm EST, which sealed the deal for G-Man.

In the very least, this timeline supports Quin's theory.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
DFaraday wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Quin wrote:
DFaraday wrote:
Quin wrote:In looking into whether I can garner any form of motivation for a Dom kill besides it just being convenient, there wasn't much relevant content related to Dom. I found one post from both SD and DF that I'd like them to talk about some more.

Spoiler: show
Spacedaisy wrote:Literally nothing.

Scotty came in, Sorsha said she suspected him the most but didn't want to vote someone not present to defend himself. She asked me my opinion of MP and my response was I am solidly reading civ MP this game.

Dom voted G-Man with no explanation, which is why I went back to the main thread to see if he voted him Day 1, and he did. Reading Dom in ISO made me feel like I trusted him more than anyone else in my thread at that point too.

Scotty voted Epi/Kate because he didn't flirt more with Scotty/Sawyer in his roleplay.

Sorsha voted G-Man with no explanation, then quickly switched to Epi with no explanation except that she didn't want to vote for someone not there to defend himself.

I voted G-Man because all I had was Day 1 to go off of, and I only trusted Dom because everyone else was hopped up on drugs or something judging by the way they were popping off votes with no explanation or reasoning.

Epi missed the vote.

Whole lot of nothing. Very confusing nothing.
Daisy, neither of these statements provided a definitive conclusion about you felt about Dom in the wider scope of the game, more-so it was specific to those on the beach. Help me understand why you thought this post was necessary, because I don't know why it matters how you felt about someone among an apart-from-the-obvious completely random minority. I'd also like to know your thoughts on those who were with you on the beach.

@DFaraday - in this post, you've got Dom smack bang in the middle of your rainbow list. What was your reason for this?
I didn't have any read on him at all. Same reason Daisy and Epi were in the middle. Though right now I'd move Epi down, since I'm starting to suspect Epi and Elo are bad together.
Epi not thinking anything in particular about the fact that Eloh considered going left-field with her vote doesn't jive too well with me. If we lynch Eloh and she flips bad, I don't think Epi looks great.
So I'm supposed to think Eloh is bad for that? Is that how this works?
That's just one factor. The bigger issue for me is the Day 1 lynch, which still looks like a blatant save attempt. Since G-Man wasn't being saved, the most logical option is Elo. And of course Rico suspected Elo shortly before his demise.
I found this dubious before, and I still find it dubious.

If anyone is taking advantage of a scummy-seeming town Elo, it's DFaraday.

I didn't see anything in MP's posts to suggest a change of mindset that went from "strong mafia read" to "scummy-seeming town Elo."

Spoiler: show

Now at "torn."

Spoiler: show

Nope- MP didn't agree with her assessment of him.

Spoiler: show

From "torn" to "town" in nine minutes.

Spoiler: show

My question regarding the underlined is this: Why wouldn't you grill her anyway? If you had real questions that needed answers, why not do your thing and see what comes of it?

Spoiler: show

To use MP's words, there's an "obvious lack of congruence" regarding this and MP's current vote. To be fair, MP would later call this "gut-based drivel."

Spoiler: show

There's a minor tiff between Eloh and MP here, in contrast to the more explosive back and forth between MP and INH.

Spoiler: show

MP has expressed the gamut of possibilities regarding Eloh. The above is his explanation of that. Having now looked at all of MP's interactions with Eloh, I'm left with this: Why doesn't MP ask her these questions and demand responses? Outside of the Hatch, MP has treated Eloh with kid gloves. I would think that if you are genuinely torn on someone, you would be more eager to strive for answers so that you could gain a clear opinion.

In summary, I am less convinced of MP's goodness than I was, and I cannot rule out an MP-Eloh relationship. However, the points in his favor that I made earlier are still points in his favor.

I don't have time, but if you are interested, here are two times when MP and Eloh have been teammates.

#639

I'm here but not for long at all.

#640

Quin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm not sure what to do. This has been a tough game. And we don't even have a single mafia flip so I hate having nothing tangible by which to judge interactions. I suppose I'll hold off on my vote to see what you all think, continue to mull over all of this, and make some brief time for this tomorrow, but don't expect anything from me other than quick phone posting while I'm at the airport or something.
I guess if I had to vote literally at this very moment, it'd be for Elo or Sorsha. I'm going to drop a vote on Sorsha for now.

Sorsha, please come in to this game and provide your suspicions and thoughts in length when you can. Thanks.
I don't like this vote. Aside from you, there are three hatchlings left; Me, INH and Eloh. If you're not bad, then you should know that there is a confirmed baddie among Eloh, INH and myself. Yet you're voting outside of us, where the probability of there even being a single scum there is unknown. You've been making the point that we're in LYLO more than anybody else and yet you're the one taking a risk by choosing the option with an unknown percentage of flipping a baddie, instead of the one where you have between at least a 33% chance.

I voted MP, and I think Eloh is your teammate.

Oh, I didn't think about it that way. I suppose you're right hat mathematically it makes more sense to limit my scope to the Hatch, but the problem is that we don't know where the other two (?) baddies are, so it's possible that all three were at the hatch (you, Elo, INH), but also possible that two were at the beach and only one at the hatch, making it better to focus on beach folks. There's too much uncertainty. I would rather focus on who is objectively scummy and go from there.

But if I feel about equally about Elo and Sorsha, I should have voted Elo due to the confirmed at least one at the hatch and since I was at the hatch, you're right. I wasn't thinking of that.

#641

Quin wrote:
Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:
Quin wrote:@Golden - did the baddies have BTSC while we were separated?
Can Golden answer this? Or say that this is something he can't answer?
The baddies did have btsc while you were in the hatch/beach threads.
My proposed scum-team is MP, Eloh and Spacedaisy.

I know it's not me, and I highly suspect it isn't Daisy. You need to rethink this if you're Town because otherwise we are sunk right now.

#642

Quin wrote:To break down my reasoning:

- MP was on board to lynch Eloh when we were separated into the two threads. Having BTSC, and knowing that there were two separate lynch polls, he would be able to co-ordinate with his team if he had a teammate on the other side to have them place a vote to save Eloh (by either SD or Sorsha), with hopes to lynch G-Man instead.

- MP has since avoided lynching Eloh both days since. I found both the DF wagon yesterday and MP's current vote to be fallicious for reasons I just underlined. I think this is justification enough to create the possibility that he and Eloh are teammates. I think MP placing a vote on Sorsha hints towards the fact that they are not teammates.

Therefore, I think MP, SD and Eloh are bad.

I am incredibly flip floppy on Elo. I can't read her for shit. That's my real problem. And it doesn't help that she and Sorsha have been completely absent since yesterday. What the heck is that about?

#643

Sorsha wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote: Lastly, regarding Sorsha, I'm torn on her. At times I've found her contributions genuine, but there's some definite reason to suspect her, especially her behavior during d3. What was that voting based on her trusting players, yet having no opinion at all on the two players she was considering voting for? I think that's an awful look.

Nonetheless, I'm torn.
I'm not always going to come up with a novel reason to be suspicious of someone. By saying I trusted certain players I mean that I trust their assessment of the players/situations and agree with them.

Oh never mind here's Sorsha.

#644

Sorsha wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Hatch

DFaraday -Lynch
Elohcin
G-Man - Lynch
Insertnamehere
MovingPictures07
Quin
Ricochet - Kill

Beach

Dom - Kill
Epignosis
Scotty - Kill
Sorsha
Spacedaisy

From the hatch, that leaves:

Eloh
INH
MP
Quin

I stand by my assessment of Eloh and MP. If I'm wrong, oh well. That means my vote today is going to either Quin or INH.
I'm not impressed. What are your actual thoughts on Quin or INH?
My thinking is along the same lines as Epi here with regards to the hatch people- we know that at least one of these players is the killer. The difference being that I think Quin is the least likely to be bad. If I ranked the hatchlings it would be Quin, MP, INH, Eloh. Including the beach bums I'd put Epi with MP and INH and Daisy a step down from Quin.

With Elo and Sorsha going after each other essentially all game I think it's odd that neither of them have shown more desire to convince other players to lynch each other.

#645

Not really sure what to make of it though.

#646

Epi, sorry my ???? Was unclear. What I meant is that I didn't have any reason to read her bad but I didn't feel I had a compelling reason to Town read her either, hence ????

My immense indecision regarding Elo this game should be clear. It's because it's genuine and I don't know what to make of her. I constantly have been shifting between thinking she is bad to thinking she sounds really genuine and is just making scummy-seeming posts at face value. Right now I'm somewhere in between.

Props to whoever the baddies are in this game because I have no fucking clue who you are.

#647

I have to finalize my vote now because we are boarding momentarily and I won't land in Cincinnati until not long after the vote is over. Fuck. I just don't know what to do. It probably doesn't matter anyway because f either quin or (probably) INH is Town and they are voting for me then we have lost this game.

I guess I'll vote Elo. Ugh.

#648

MovingPictures07 wrote:Props to whoever the baddies are in this game because I have no fucking clue who you are.

Neither do I. If it's not you, anyway. They deserve this win if that's the case

I'm definitely voting a hatchling, and I don't think it's going to be INH. So either you or Eloh.

#649

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Quin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm not sure what to do. This has been a tough game. And we don't even have a single mafia flip so I hate having nothing tangible by which to judge interactions. I suppose I'll hold off on my vote to see what you all think, continue to mull over all of this, and make some brief time for this tomorrow, but don't expect anything from me other than quick phone posting while I'm at the airport or something.
I guess if I had to vote literally at this very moment, it'd be for Elo or Sorsha. I'm going to drop a vote on Sorsha for now.

Sorsha, please come in to this game and provide your suspicions and thoughts in length when you can. Thanks.
I don't like this vote. Aside from you, there are three hatchlings left; Me, INH and Eloh. If you're not bad, then you should know that there is a confirmed baddie among Eloh, INH and myself. Yet you're voting outside of us, where the probability of there even being a single scum there is unknown. You've been making the point that we're in LYLO more than anybody else and yet you're the one taking a risk by choosing the option with an unknown percentage of flipping a baddie, instead of the one where you have between at least a 33% chance.

I voted MP, and I think Eloh is your teammate.
Oh, I didn't think about it that way. I suppose you're right hat mathematically it makes more sense to limit my scope to the Hatch, but the problem is that we don't know where the other two (?) baddies are, so it's possible that all three were at the hatch (you, Elo, INH), but also possible that two were at the beach and only one at the hatch, making it better to focus on beach folks. There's too much uncertainty. I would rather focus on who is objectively scummy and go from there.

But if I feel about equally about Elo and Sorsha, I should have voted Elo due to the confirmed at least one at the hatch and since I was at the hatch, you're right. I wasn't thinking of that.

I don't think not knowing where the other two baddies are is a problem you need to care about when you have a one-in-three shot of lynching a bad hatchling and at worst a 0 percent chance of lynching a bad beachbody. I think you slipped up.

#650

I am faced with this following situation. I am very certain Alex is civ. I am fairly certain Epi is civ. I feel like Quin is likely civ judging by his ISOs. I trusted Epi's assessment of Elo yesterday despite my own misgivings on it and that did not work out well for us when DF flipped civ. If I eliminate Alex, Epi and Quin by PoE I have my baddies in INH Sorsha and Elo. I'm voting Elo with MP.

Will you run, hide, or die?