A Mafia of Unfortunate Events [END GAME]

#1851

Long Con wrote:Elon, why do you want Epi to theorize about who is on the team of his suspect? Wouldn't it be a better use of time to wait until it is proven that Quin is bad, and then to look into who might be his teammate?

Yes, that does make more sense. I guess I was just looking for a reason to address Sir Epi in the post. I just love Sir that much. Can't let a post go by without talking about my Sir.

#1852

I think the right question for epi is - do you disagree with jacks assessment about how that statement is able to be checkable, and that it could only be checked if ddl or snow was Quinn teammate?

I agree with Daisy's point on quin. I wouldn't have a clue if I've made any ld statements, but I certainly wouldn't have been trying to avoid making them - quite the opposite, putting a whole lot of stakes in the sand maximises the chance that an ld can find something to check me with.

#1853

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Long Con wrote:Elon, why do you want Epi to theorize about who is on the team of his suspect? Wouldn't it be a better use of time to wait until it is proven that Quin is bad, and then to look into who might be his teammate?
That's like saying I have reason to suspect that you, LC, have teammates so you may be baddies together.

Then I refuse to explain who you are teammates with and why I think so, saying it's better to lynch you first and confirm you are bad.

Bad argument. Suspicion of LC increasing.

Agree completely. It's wise to have a theory of the game, and certainly unwise to dismiss the concept of a theory of the game.

#1854

Golden wrote:hmm - yeah, Dom subbing back in is a minefield. Should we presume he has no info? Probably best to infer nothing and make it off limits to discuss dons past life with him?

One thing we do know, Dom was not Olaf since Olaf killed.

@jack - what do you mean by 'Golden is following epi'?

I disagree, Golden. I don;t think anything should be off limits. We don't want to limit thoughts and ideas. I think we can use his returning as helpful info. Perhaps his tidbit of info on his deathbed was not really info at all and Quin is actually civ. I cannot imagine DF letting him back in with info like that. Or, perhaps it was an oversight on behalf of DF. I think we ought to wait and hear from Dom and I think if he is allowed to open up about his past life, then we should take what he has to say into consideration. Then again, perhaps he came back bad. There are just a lot of things to take into account and we ought not dismiss discussion.

@ Epi - Don't you agree, Sir?

Linki...its always good to get info from one lynch before going after another who you suspect based on the original suspicion. BUT, Jack is right that there is nothing wrong with asking Epi who his other suspicions are based on his suspicion of Quin. And, yeah...I'd still like to know.

#1855

Golden wrote:hmm - yeah, Dom subbing back in is a minefield. Should we presume he has no info? Probably best to infer nothing and make it off limits to discuss dons past life with him?

One thing we do know, Dom was not Olaf since Olaf killed.

@jack - what do you mean by 'Golden is following epi'?

We don't know that, DF has already said all Troupe kills will be written as Olaf regardless.

#1856

That's exactly the problem eloh - 'I can't imagine do would let...' the first thought might be to say he doesn't have info on quin. But what if he did? And Dom can't tell is, I think, can he? It could lead us to very bad conclusions (or very good ones that we'd never reach if Dom hadn't subbed back in)... I just think it's dangerous.

Linki thanks daisy!

#1857

Wait, we DO know that Dom's first role was not Olaf since we know his previous role. What we do NOT know is if the role he is in now was previously Olaf based on Olaf's kills.

#1858

Unless olafs secret extends to being a seemer in death... yeah, I think someone would have been more adamant about Dom by now if he was a seemer in death though

#1859

You guys aren't getting it. I could really explain better if I could post on my computer and not my phone.

Quin isn't getting accused specifically of having certain teammates. The SNOW-DDL thing became a non-issue when the host said that statement wasn't checkable. All this stuff you are confronting Epi with is based on the SNOW-DDL statement and is rooted in an argument that doesn't exist any more.

Neither Epi nor I think Quin is bad based on the idea that he has certain teammates, so discrediting that argument is pointless.

I think Quin is bad based on his behaviour, and the point Sorsha made is good as well.

#1860

Long Con wrote:You guys aren't getting it. I could really explain better if I could post on my computer and not my phone.

Quin isn't getting accused specifically of having certain teammates. The SNOW-DDL thing became a non-issue when the host said that statement wasn't checkable. All this stuff you are confronting Epi with is based on the SNOW-DDL statement and is rooted in an argument that doesn't exist any more.

Neither Epi nor I think Quin is bad based on the idea that he has certain teammates, so discrediting that argument is pointless.

I think Quin is bad based on his behaviour, and the point Sorsha made is good as well.

What was Sorsha's point?

#1861

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:@Epi

Let's simplify this.

Do you think hunk Quin is scum buddies with DDL and/Snow Dog or not?

Cause both the distancing and the lie detect argument point to that conclusion if you buy into them.

I have not commented on who is bad with Quin. That was not the purpose of the exercise regarding lie detectors.
I'm asking you to comment on it.

What was the purpose of the excercise regarding lie detectors, then?

I don't have any comment about it- it wasn't my opinion.

My purpose was to explore the fact that, with his dying breath, the lie detector called out Quin. I dug through Quin's posts to find items that might qualify for Dom's ability. That's one I found. Quin argued that items prefaced with "I think" couldn't be checked, and I disagreed with him by providing a counterexample. That's all. The thread is a canvas for my musings.

Golden wrote:I think the right question for epi is - do you disagree with jacks assessment about how that statement is able to be checkable, and that it could only be checked if ddl or snow was Quinn teammate?

That's kind of the point I was making.

But none of this is important for today.

#1862

Ugh sorry, that should be Spacedaisy's point.

#1863

Maybe Dom subbed in for someone on Quin's team.

#1864

Sorry that wasn't arrogance, I thought I had missed what Sorsha's said.

#1865

Hey Dom, what do you think of Quin?

#1866

Epignosis wrote:Maybe Dom subbed in for someone on Quin's team.

This is what I was thinking when I said he could have came back bad, Sir.

#1867

Long Con wrote:You guys aren't getting it. I could really explain better if I could post on my computer and not my phone.

Quin isn't getting accused specifically of having certain teammates. The SNOW-DDL thing became a non-issue when the host said that statement wasn't checkable. All this stuff you are confronting Epi with is based on the SNOW-DDL statement and is rooted in an argument that doesn't exist any more.

Neither Epi nor I think Quin is bad based on the idea that he has certain teammates, so discrediting that argument is pointless.

I think Quin is bad based on his behaviour, and the point Sorsha made is good as well.

Epi's other point was that he said Quin was bad back on Day 2.....for making a play that looked like distancing from DDL and Snow.

Unless I'm misreading something, both arguments are rooted in that w/w possibility that Epi continually refuses to comment on.

You guys keep assuring me there is a stool but won't take a stance on the existence of the stool's leg. This is baffling to me.

#1868

Epi enjoys arguing/debating, especially semantics. Don't get hung up on it.

#1869

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Long Con wrote:You guys aren't getting it. I could really explain better if I could post on my computer and not my phone.

Quin isn't getting accused specifically of having certain teammates. The SNOW-DDL thing became a non-issue when the host said that statement wasn't checkable. All this stuff you are confronting Epi with is based on the SNOW-DDL statement and is rooted in an argument that doesn't exist any more.

Neither Epi nor I think Quin is bad based on the idea that he has certain teammates, so discrediting that argument is pointless.

I think Quin is bad based on his behaviour, and the point Sorsha made is good as well.
Epi's other point was that he said Quin was bad back on Day 2.....for making a play that looked like distancing from DDL and Snow.

Unless I'm misreading something, both arguments are rooted in that w/w possibility that Epi continually refuses to comment on.

You guys keep assuring me there is a stool but won't take a stance on the existence of the stool's leg. This is baffling to me.

You will probably continue to be baffled if you spend more time honing your metaphor than you do reading.

#1870

Long Con wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Long Con wrote:You guys aren't getting it. I could really explain better if I could post on my computer and not my phone.

Quin isn't getting accused specifically of having certain teammates. The SNOW-DDL thing became a non-issue when the host said that statement wasn't checkable. All this stuff you are confronting Epi with is based on the SNOW-DDL statement and is rooted in an argument that doesn't exist any more.

Neither Epi nor I think Quin is bad based on the idea that he has certain teammates, so discrediting that argument is pointless.

I think Quin is bad based on his behaviour, and the point Sorsha made is good as well.
Epi's other point was that he said Quin was bad back on Day 2.....for making a play that looked like distancing from DDL and Snow.

Unless I'm misreading something, both arguments are rooted in that w/w possibility that Epi continually refuses to comment on.

You guys keep assuring me there is a stool but won't take a stance on the existence of the stool's leg. This is baffling to me.
You will probably continue to be baffled if you spend more time honing your metaphor than you do reading.

My metaphor is brilliant and you know it!

#1871

Epi, if you suspect Quin based on thinking he is Snow Dog or DDL's teammate, please make that clear, and I will admit I am wrong about your point of view.

#1872

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Long Con wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Long Con wrote:You guys aren't getting it. I could really explain better if I could post on my computer and not my phone.

Quin isn't getting accused specifically of having certain teammates. The SNOW-DDL thing became a non-issue when the host said that statement wasn't checkable. All this stuff you are confronting Epi with is based on the SNOW-DDL statement and is rooted in an argument that doesn't exist any more.

Neither Epi nor I think Quin is bad based on the idea that he has certain teammates, so discrediting that argument is pointless.

I think Quin is bad based on his behaviour, and the point Sorsha made is good as well.
Epi's other point was that he said Quin was bad back on Day 2.....for making a play that looked like distancing from DDL and Snow.

Unless I'm misreading something, both arguments are rooted in that w/w possibility that Epi continually refuses to comment on.

You guys keep assuring me there is a stool but won't take a stance on the existence of the stool's leg. This is baffling to me.
You will probably continue to be baffled if you spend more time honing your metaphor than you do reading.
My metaphor is brilliant and you know it!

My liking of your metaphor is not relevant right now, I will enjoy and/or reuse it on my own time. It's my last line from my post a few posts ago that I refer to you needing to read. It indicates why I suspect Quin, and it's not this Snow Dog- DDL thing.

#1873

Long Con wrote:Epi, if you suspect Quin based on thinking he is Snow Dog or DDL's teammate, please make that clear, and I will admit I am wrong about your point of view.

My suspicion of Quin has nothing to do with anybody from Wales or Brazil.

#1874

I don't believe there is any balance issue.

#1875

My theory: Dom 1.0 missed pms and/or checked folks who are now already dead.

#1876

DFaraday wrote:I don't believe there is any balance issue.

Long Con wrote:My theory: Dom 1.0 missed pms and/or checked folks who are now already dead.

Agreed. Fine with the replacement in that case

RE:Metaphors

Quin put the early DDL/Snow Dog teamup post and Epi thought it was forced/too simple to be a real Quin suspicion. My bad.

I don't have much to say about that, though, cause it's my first game with Quin.

@Daisy and Golden

Who do you suspect most among the lynchable players.

@Golden

I only want to hear new stuff about Sonji. Your other posts about him are noted. I just want you to go beyond that.

#1877

Jack I'm in a training class. Posting from my phone. I would not even be posting and reading the thread like I am if not for the really bad smacking noise another guy at my table keeps making with his mouth and I absolutely NEED to distract myself or I might kill him. I cannot handle it, I feel an irrational sense of anger closing on rage because he has been doing this for three and a half hours. I can't give thoughts on something I have to go research. I will when I get home tonight. Watch the news to see if there is a story of a woman going postal on someone in San Antonio, that might be me....

#1878

@Daisy and Golden

You're definitely misinterpreting my intentions when I continued to question people to find a lie detectable post in my ISO. I'm not trying to suggest that I'm making sure that I'm not making statements that can be checked, what I'm trying to do is refute bad cases founded on poor logic. I'm pushing people to find a post that supports the the idea that Dom checked me so that a bunch of people don't just say 'Well, he could have checked him' and pile on votes for me without putting in the effort. There won't be anything to read into once I'm dead otherwise.

#1879

Quin wrote:@Daisy and Golden

You're definitely misinterpreting my intentions when I continued to question people to find a lie detectable post in my ISO. I'm not trying to suggest that I'm making sure that I'm not making statements that can be checked, what I'm trying to do is refute bad cases founded on poor logic. I'm pushing people to find a post that supports the the idea that Dom checked me so that a bunch of people don't just say 'Well, he could have checked him' and pile on votes for me without putting in the effort. There won't be anything to read into once I'm dead otherwise.

I have my own reasons to think you are bad, but you aren't on the poll today, and that gives me time to go through every statement you made. I agree that people should not vote you on the basis of lie detector business without finding something that could have been checked and returned as evidence of your guilt. So there's that.

I want to be very clear on this:

Just because you made no detectable statement does not exonerate you. It merely eliminates a piece of evidence. Bear in mind that regardless of his ability, Dom Senior was a civilian, and he expressed no unclear opinion about you.

#1880

Dom's ability matters. If he's a lie detector and I've made no detectable statements, he's just another civ who pointed his finger at me in his scum hunting. He can be wrong. He is.

Since I'm not on the poll today, spend your time looking at the people you actually can vote for. I'm going to be talked about enough anyway.

#1881

We can't lynch you today since you are not on the poll, so I will not talk about you anymore this lynch.

I will start by saying the following people I am unwilling to vote for without a really compelling case to convince me I am wrong about my reads on them:

Epi
MP
Nacho
Sig

(And obviously I won't be voting for myself

)

I have no reason to suspect Marco before he was replaced and I don't see any reason to vote Dom out right after replacing in. At least with sprityo there was a case there, here I see no reason. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong on that, but Marco was not even here was he?

So that leaves me with the following people to consider:
DDL
Elo
Snow Dog
Soneji
Zebra

Of those, I have gone back and done an ISO on Soneji. I found it making me feel more comfortable with him. During Day 1 I was under the impression that he was going against Snow Dog, when what I actually found was he was finding Zebra's response to Snow Dog's comment to be suspicious. Not because she defended him, but because she seemed to be attributing to it a strategy that there was no reason to believe was there and she was playing "gotcha" as he put it. I realized as I read it, that my feelings of Soneji doing something shady was cultivated not by what Soneji actually said but by the way Zebra (and possibly others) were framing it. The only thing he said or did that I found to be suspicious was his vote for Dom with no real supporting reasons.

I will go check out some more of these. I think this one makes me want to go check out zebra next.

#1882

As I begin reading through Zebra's posts, I can see exactly what Soneji was saying about Zebra's response to Snow Dog's initial statement. I am also struck by the fact she was going on and on about how they (DDL, MM, Jack, Soneji, whoever else) were assuming what his intentions were and attacking his tactics, but Snow Dog has never given us any indication the comment was anything more than a joke, so her passionate tirade about accepting unusual tactics seems hypocritical at best and possibly emotional manipulation at worst. That said, I can see why she might have passionate about it since they were putting forward the idea of a possible policy lynch on someone who might be choosing to play without reading their role. So while I think it is hypocritical, I'm not sure it is intentional manipulation.

I had to laugh at the idea of Soneji suspecting her for revenge from a past game. Soneji has never struck me as the type for that. I could be wrong, I have not known him all that long, but it seems a bit dramatic to me.

Honestly, I've not seen anything in there that seems overtly baddie. But I have also not seen anything that spoke town to me. In fact, outside of the silly Snow Dog comment situation I have seen no contribution from her. So personally I am pretty neutral on Zebra at this point.

On to Snow Dog...

#1883

Ok, to recap Snow Dog basically it's a whole lot of jokes, one line posts responding to questions and things with no real answers and the occasional one liner that actually adds a little something to conversation. I am torn here. He looks primarily like a half engaged, goofing off civ, but there is so little there yet he has three pages of posts when you click his "in this thread" link. That's more than either of the other two I've read so far. The amount of posts in comparison to what he has actually brought to the game scares me. He may be hiding behind the jokes. The only thing holding me back is the Day 0 comment, because it seems like a silly thing for a baddie to say, even in jest. I am really torn on Snow Dog. Day 0, even Day 1 I dismissed him as probably just a civ being silly, but now we are on Day 4 and I don't see where he has really weighed in heavily on anything or gave some concrete opinions that could help us to decide what alignment we think he is. Meh. I feel undecided here.

Next up Elo...

#1884

@Golden

I only want to hear new stuff about Sonji. Your other posts about him are noted. I just want you to go beyond that.

Fair. Most people I suspect are on the poll. I do suspect soneji and ddl of being teammates, but I won't give any case unless I have new stuff.

I'll answer more in a bit when I get a moment, but there are only theee on the poll of rule out voting right now - daisy, mp, sig.

#1885

Okay. I am worn out to shit but I finally finally finally have some free time on my hands and it's time to do some work. I am only focused on doing a reread of the game today; don't care one whit about organizing my reads into some form that makes sense, just want to get the game read and commented on today. Tomorrow I will try to turn whatever word soup that I create today into something that people might be able to understand.

#1886

Elo...

A couple things stand out to me regarding Elo. She seems to be sheeping a lot. And she seems to be buddying up to Epi. I don't mean the Sir thing either. I mean she is specifically asking him in particular for opinions and stuff. I don't recall seeing her doing that in the past. But she does try to pocket him when she is bad, and who could blame her. I've done the same to my husband. People tend to put more stock in a spouse/SO read of you.

Another thing I found concerning was her flip flop, before Dom flipped she was gunning for me and Quin. Then Dom flipped and she was all, "oh I should look at who started this train." Just such an easy flip flop, it makes me uncomfortable with her. Most votes are not that clear cut to sort out who on them was good and bad, and it feels like an attempt to pin something onto an easy lynch that doesn't affect her.

Leaning bad on Elo. Possibly Indy though.

#1887

I will say that I weight Epi's suspicion of Elo heavily, being the whole married couple thing and all - is there a reason I shouldn't do this?

#1888

Going to go on to DDL now... see you guys sometime tomorrow, I'm sure he has posted a lot as per his usual.

Nacho: That was no my point. My point was I think Elo knows that and is trying to buddy him by seeking out and sheeping his opinions. I actually am civ reading Epi and have been since the start.

#1889

And hilariously enough, didn't read Spacedaisy's post above mine before that last post.

SD, why do you find Elo leaning on Epi to be odd behavior from her? It seems only natural to lean on someone close to you for reads; I get that you haven't seen it from her before, but have you played a game with her where she was extremely busy before (maybe she's more likely to lean on Epi when she doesn't have time) and why do you think she'd do that if bad when she can scumhunt genuinely in a multiball game?

#1890

Spacedaisy wrote:Going to go on to DDL now... see you guys sometime tomorrow, I'm sure he has posted a lot as per his usual.

Nacho: That was no my point. My point was I think Elo knows that and is trying to buddy him by seeking out and sheeping his opinions. I actually am civ reading Epi and have been since the start.

I wasn't even responding to your point there - just an odd coincidence.

#1891

Other things that are coming to me as the gears are turning is that I don't understand the recent Golden suspicion - I liked his recent response to Epignosis over the "clown" comment - his talk about how Epignosis changes his mind based on internal mechanisms and there's nothing he can do to stop it in addition to the "that's fine you can call me a clown but fuck you" type of comments. I don't really have anything definitive or particularly compelling for this point, but the way the comments flowed came across how I always hope my responses to strong suspicion like that look as scum so if he is scum here I'm jealous as hell.

#1892

Nachomamma8 wrote:And hilariously enough, didn't read Spacedaisy's post above mine before that last post.

SD, why do you find Elo leaning on Epi to be odd behavior from her? It seems only natural to lean on someone close to you for reads; I get that you haven't seen it from her before, but have you played a game with her where she was extremely busy before (maybe she's more likely to lean on Epi when she doesn't have time) and why do you think she'd do that if bad when she can scumhunt genuinely in a multiball game?

I find it odd because it is out of character from what i have seen from her in the past, whether civ or bad. Elo has grown in her game a lot in the past couple years, and I find this behavior to be incongruent with growth I would identify as civ behavior, it looks more like someone trying to pocket someone else to me, and it makes sense because of exactly what you said, Epi being her spouse will carry more weight with the group. So if she could pocket him it would help her more as a baddie. Civ's don't need to pocket others, baddies do. And it sure looks like she is trying to pocket Epi to me.

#1893

Spacedaisy wrote:
Nachomamma8 wrote:And hilariously enough, didn't read Spacedaisy's post above mine before that last post.

SD, why do you find Elo leaning on Epi to be odd behavior from her? It seems only natural to lean on someone close to you for reads; I get that you haven't seen it from her before, but have you played a game with her where she was extremely busy before (maybe she's more likely to lean on Epi when she doesn't have time) and why do you think she'd do that if bad when she can scumhunt genuinely in a multiball game?
I find it odd because it is out of character from what i have seen from her in the past, whether civ or bad. Elo has grown in her game a lot in the past couple years, and I find this behavior to be incongruent with growth I would identify as civ behavior, it looks more like someone trying to pocket someone else to me, and it makes sense because of exactly what you said, Epi being her spouse will carry more weight with the group. So if she could pocket him it would help her more as a baddie. Civ's don't need to pocket others, baddies do. And it sure looks like she is trying to pocket Epi to me.

The only point I was trying to make is that maybe she's grabbing at a lifeline because she feels like she's drowning; when my girlfriend and I play together usually I'm happy to form my reads and go my own ways but whenever I'm feeling overwhelmed or particularly frustrated than I tend to follow her like a lost puppy.

I understand the point you're making and will probably follow up with it once I have the slightest idea once I'm talking about again.

#1894

Long Con's role analysis here: Golden, I'm looking for your input on this specifically; I was impressed how you looked at his Monkey Island role spec and came away feeling great about it (and was even more impressed when I agreed with your conclusions). I was expecting you to comment on it here because I thought that it was significantly weaker here than it was there (in particular, the part that stood out to me there was his analysis of baddie roles there but I thought it lacked the same depth here); do you not usually comment on his role analysis/do you think this one was particularly neutral/did you decide not to comment on it just so I'd call you out about it later?

#1895

Hi Epi!
Can you talk about why you think your wife is trying to kill you while I'm trying to catch up? It might make fighting the good fight go a bit smoother!

#1896

Nacho, it is significantly weaker. Enough for me to not be town reading him. Not enough for me to get a significant sense of doom though. Could be bad, could be indy... but it would not be truthful to say I am reading him bad yet either (although I'm still working my way through older posts and his recent ones aren't inspiring). Sometimes I get clean reads on the people I can read, other times it's not as clean. Definitely nothing clean here.

#1897

Elo frequently gets overwhelmed and behind in games, it's why she usually says she likes Heists better than full games. But in all this time playing with her I have never felt like she specifically was sheeping Epi. It's a new move for her and I can't see a good reason for it that looks civ to me. I could see her being Indy, after her response to the Dom lynch though.

Still reading through DDL at the moment.

#1898

Golden wrote:Nacho, it is significantly weaker. Enough for me to not be town reading him. Not enough for me to get a significant sense of doom though. Could be bad, could be indy... but it would not be truthful to say I am reading him bad yet either (although I'm still working my way through older posts and his recent ones aren't inspiring). Sometimes I get clean reads on the people I can read, other times it's not as clean. Definitely nothing clean here.

Why didn't you comment on it when you saw it?

#1899

Spacedaisy wrote:Elo frequently gets overwhelmed and behind in games, it's why she usually says she likes Heists better than full games. But in all this time playing with her I have never felt like she specifically was sheeping Epi. It's a new move for her and I can't see a good reason for it that looks civ to me. I could see her being Indy, after her response to the Dom lynch though.

Still reading through DDL at the moment.

That makes sense; I agree with your conclusion that what you've found is probably more of an Indy tell.

DFaraday, do people that are recruited by Ishmael flip as Cult of Ishmael or do they flip their original role and nothing more?

#1900

I don't understand why people are suspecting DDL even a little bit; I've seen him annoyedly posting at Golden and Quin and he seems pure enough to me.

Who needs to practice their stabbing?