A Mafia of Unfortunate Events [END GAME]

[Tangrowth]

That was painful reading. I got nothing out of it. It's also hard to put any stock in Golden's perspective and early vote because he did the same thing to me last phase.

I see a similar Quin that I saw in Mad Max. I think dom's observation of Quin declaring me bad and then proceeding to argue Golden is disingenuous and bad is a good one as well. He seems like a desperate baddie willing to discredit and try to make an argument seem town vs town but personally I don't think it is.

You are not seeing a similar quin because that is not at all how I carried myself in mad max. Talk about a bad post.

I'm roadtripping for the next five hours. Adios.

I thought the comparison was apt.

[Golden]

At this point, I think the rest of the Troupe have to be found in one of two pools

LC, Jack, Quin, Epi; or
MP, Daisy, Sorsha, Dom

I don't see any overlap between them. Also, I really don't think Epi and Dom are bad, but they still would only belong on those respective sides in my view.

[Tangrowth]

"I think MP is bad because he's obviously Indy"

You can lynch me today. I'm cool with that. I really am. But you will be next, because you just stepped on a land mine.

Why the hell would I be next? I've heard literally no argument for why I should be lynched other than "MP is acting like he's an Indy and I don't believe him", which is absurd. But at least LC is giving something. The rest of you all are giving nothing. You just said "MP is bad" with nothing to assert it, even when I countered your post with a legitimate question.

It's frustrating and makes you look suspicious as fuck.

[Tangrowth]

It's almost as though Jack, LC and Quin are hinting at being the Ishmael cult, but then wtf would Quin be saying he had a damning case on sig being Ishmael? That would make no sense, since sig actively wrote a massive case on LC. So, this explanation doesn't check out.

I'm trying to think of a single good town explanation for why LC, Jack and Quin would all be protecting each other with little more than 'trust me, you're wrong' to go on with.

I don't think they are hinting at that, but I don't know what else they could be hinting at.

[Golden]

It's almost as though Jack, LC and Quin are hinting at being the Ishmael cult, but then wtf would Quin be saying he had a damning case on sig being Ishmael? That would make no sense, since sig actively wrote a massive case on LC. So, this explanation doesn't check out.

I'm trying to think of a single good town explanation for why LC, Jack and Quin would all be protecting each other with little more than 'trust me, you're wrong' to go on with.

I don't think they are hinting at that, but I don't know what else they could be hinting at.

That's my problem too

[Tangrowth]

Also, the denials that go on. Like, Quin definitely acted as though he knew you have the bowl, and then backtracked.

I feel like one of them is a deepwolf tricking the other two. I don't know how else this all makes sense.

[Golden]

Also, the denials that go on. Like, Quin definitely acted as though he knew you have the bowl, and then backtracked.

I feel like one of them is a deepwolf tricking the other two. I don't know how else this all makes sense.

Well I'm confident they don't all have town roles. There's not enough left to go around.

[Tangrowth]

MP, I really want to get your thoughts on things generally. Like, do you trust LC and Jack and their defence of Quin? Who do you think is bad?

I don't know what to make of their defense of Quin. I trust Jack but I don't trust that he knows what he thinks he knows because he's certainly wrong about me, for one, and I don't understand his defense of Quin. I think I trust LC.

I don't trust Quin as far as I can throw him, but I don't think he's a slam dunk either only because of LC and Jack defending him. The whole thing is just a clusterfuck I can't make sense of.

[Epignosis]

Meanwhile, nary a word about Sorsha.

[Epignosis]

Or from.

[Tangrowth]

Other thoughts: I don't think Daisy, DDL, you, and sig are bad. I'd be surprised to find any of you are. Jack seems trustworthy just due to be cleared by mechanics. I really was thinking Epi was bad but I don't think that anymore. I tentatively trust LC.

That just leaves Dom, Sorsha, and Quin, hence my GTHs from earlier reflecting that.

[Tangrowth]

Meanwhile, nary a word about Sorsha.

I mean, I guess I could get behind a Sorsha vote. I don't have any reason to call her town by any means.

I also have to stay concerned about self-preservation though.

[Golden]

Meanwhile, nary a word about Sorsha.

She wouldn't be a terrible choice.

[Tangrowth]

This is one of the most difficult lynch decisions I've been involved in for a while.

[Golden]

This is one of the most difficult lynch decisions I've been involved in for a while.

I agree. There are legitimate reasons to consider every person to not be bad.

[Golden]

Truth be told, I won't be surprised if there is only one Troupe member left after all.

[Tangrowth]

Truth be told, I won't be surprised if there is only one Troupe member left after all.

I'm really thinking that's the case. 2 tops.

[Jackofhearts2005]

It's almost as though Jack, LC and Quin are hinting at being the Ishmael cult, but then wtf would Quin be saying he had a damning case on sig being Ishmael? That would make no sense, since sig actively wrote a massive case on LC. So, this explanation doesn't check out.

I'm trying to think of a single good town explanation for why LC, Jack and Quin would all be protecting each other with little more than 'trust me, you're wrong' to go on with.

I don't think they are hinting at that, but I don't know what else they could be hinting at.

That's my problem too

I am Groot.

I am Groot.

Vote Quin?

NOOOOOO!


Voting Quin with the worst of tastes in my mouth.

[Tangrowth]

It's almost as though Jack, LC and Quin are hinting at being the Ishmael cult, but then wtf would Quin be saying he had a damning case on sig being Ishmael? That would make no sense, since sig actively wrote a massive case on LC. So, this explanation doesn't check out.

I'm trying to think of a single good town explanation for why LC, Jack and Quin would all be protecting each other with little more than 'trust me, you're wrong' to go on with.

I don't think they are hinting at that, but I don't know what else they could be hinting at.

That's my problem too

I am Groot.

I am Groot.

Vote Quin?

NOOOOOO!


Voting Quin with the worst of tastes in my mouth.

Wait, what? Why are you voting Quin after all?

[sig]

Lynching SOrsha would delay everything by a day imo, I mean sure it might shed some light and if she flips bad yay. However, unless she is the last baddie then we're still messed up.

For LC's claim it's just that a claim. We have no way to verify that the item wouldn't just move the lynch to the second player or in being immune he just wouldn't count.

Was my question about kills ever answered? Since assuming the other team doesn't inherit the kill we won't be in the worst shape.

linki: We have one down, assuming what LC said was true then out of the dead players we have
INH lock cleared if we believe LC
Soneji who voted for Glorf making it unlikely. Possible Guardian though.
Nacho Total unknown
Soup: Unlikely
Lorab: Unlikely
Scotty: Unlikely

Scotty since I have a role in mind, plus hitting a mafia member so early seems almost impossible I'd love if someone else would check him out though see if anything in his posts stick out.

I think the only two who might fit the bill is Nacho or Soneji, Nacho being more likely. This would all depend on Sunny having a good kill. Though it would explain killing Zebra (assuming she is Sunny) if their teammate got killed by her.


linki: Wth? Why explain I thought you wanted MP lynched?

[Tangrowth]

Whom do you want to lynch, sig?

[Golden]

This is fascinating. Now that Jack voted Quin I have a theory... I'll see if it holds after the lynch though.

[Golden]

I dunno sig, maybe sorsha is the last baddie.

[Jackofhearts2005]

It's almost as though Jack, LC and Quin are hinting at being the Ishmael cult, but then wtf would Quin be saying he had a damning case on sig being Ishmael? That would make no sense, since sig actively wrote a massive case on LC. So, this explanation doesn't check out.

I'm trying to think of a single good town explanation for why LC, Jack and Quin would all be protecting each other with little more than 'trust me, you're wrong' to go on with.

I don't think they are hinting at that, but I don't know what else they could be hinting at.

That's my problem too

I am Groot.

I am Groot.

Vote Quin?

NOOOOOO!


Voting Quin with the worst of tastes in my mouth.

Wait, what? Why are you voting Quin after all?

Whoever won the bowl must have put a lot of votes in. There's no way Olaf risks it.

If we're gonna mislynch, why not mislynch a non baddie that's gonna get himself lynched anyway?

I mean, if lynching Olaf isn't on the table, why not Quin?

[Tangrowth]

It's almost as though Jack, LC and Quin are hinting at being the Ishmael cult, but then wtf would Quin be saying he had a damning case on sig being Ishmael? That would make no sense, since sig actively wrote a massive case on LC. So, this explanation doesn't check out.

I'm trying to think of a single good town explanation for why LC, Jack and Quin would all be protecting each other with little more than 'trust me, you're wrong' to go on with.

I don't think they are hinting at that, but I don't know what else they could be hinting at.

That's my problem too

I am Groot.

I am Groot.

Vote Quin?

NOOOOOO!


Voting Quin with the worst of tastes in my mouth.

Wait, what? Why are you voting Quin after all?

Whoever won the bowl must have put a lot of votes in. There's no way Olaf risks it.

If we're gonna mislynch, why not mislynch a non baddie that's gonna get himself lynched anyway?

I mean, if lynching Olaf isn't on the table, why not Quin?

I don't understand. There were (and still are frankly) plenty of votes to come in for today's lynch. If you really think Quin is a mislynch then why would you vote him, and why now? I still was contemplating whom to lynch myself.

[sig]

Whom do you want to lynch, sig?

That is a very good question, LC, Quin, or maybe Daisy.

I think Olaf is between Dom or LC. Rereading it I'm not convinced by LC explanation agaisnt my case, also yes when he voted he did tie it three ways, but why tie it three ways? Why not put your opponent ahead of you? Either way I think the key is in day 2.

I'm agaisnt lynching Daisy right now though, so I guess LC or Quin maybe you, but I don't see a good case. I'm flying blind minus my Klaus suspicion, but I think it's pretty good.

I'd also add we should watch Epi, not lynch him right now, since I do still think he is a civ, but if we had a deepwolf it is either him or LC.

I also don't believe we only have one Troupe member left, two is possible, but not one.

Why is lynching Olaf off the table Jack?

[sig]

I don't like Jack's vote at all it makes zero sense, as does his reasoning for it.


@Golden why do you think that?

[Golden]

I don't like Jack's vote at all it makes zero sense, as does his reasoning for it.


@Golden why do you think that?

Quin's death might clear Jack and LC in some way, or at least that might be the intent. And if so, I can see merit in it.

[Tangrowth]

This game is insane.

[sig]

I think that's bad, which is why I hate Indy's, and I don't see how it would clear LC/Jack? Since Quin never claimed Indy did he, wasn't that MP.

[sig]

And did anyone pick up Jack's role hints? Since I didn't see anything sticking out on my read over.

[Golden]

And did anyone pick up Jack's role hints? Since I didn't see anything sticking out on my read over.

I've got a couple of theories. But nothing certain.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Dammit, I'm beginning to think one person in particular has me fooled. LC, you're Olaf aren't you?

You can survive a lynch? Why? Hmm....

I bid a ton for that bowl, but I didn't get it. Why? Someone with a lynch save bid more.

Then the sprit lynch. No effort to save at all. We know for a fact there were no teamies on his chain. And why not? Could it be that sprit was less valuable than losing a lynch save?

I'm willing to bet today ends with a no lynch no matter what, because I'm pretty sure that LC has bid a lot of votes for that bowl.

I'm officially afraid of you now. I'm looking through all these interactions and no answer makes sense. That means someone is pulling the wool over my eyes. It isn't Jack or DDL, they are lock cleared. I'm certain it isn't sig, he's nailing baddies to the wall. MP is, as far as I'm concerned, clearly an indy. Sorsha and Daisy have less to clear them, but their games look so town.

That leaves you, epi, Quin and Dom.

I realised that INH can't be troupe either (he is lock cleared like Jack and DDL), so out of deadies I've narrowed it down to soneji, nacho, soup, lorab. Nacho and soup seem most unlikely to me. LoRab and soneji could be, although I'm not sure that LoRab actually is. Soneji seems like a strong candidate to be Troupe to me.

And if so, soneji bussed sprit despite LC being on the table...

This is all locking together in my mind. I cleared LC for his theory that Dom was on the Troupe, but this theory is almost cartoonesque by now. Despite the fact DF keeps saying there are no balance issues, LC keeps pressing Dom's substitution, something that (by the way) Eloh also did and something that I can only see bad reasons for doing. It's massively dangerous drawing assumptions from host actions, as I've said over and over. People try to draw conclusions from my actions as host all the time and I choose my actions very carefully (as a host) so as to dupe or wifom players who try it. It simply isn't worth it. But LC just won't drop it.

There are any number of reasons why balance is not an issue with Dom subbing in. He missed his PMs (LC says this does effect balance? How?). Or, he only LDed people who have already been lynched and had their roles revealed. It could be anything. It is not 'so obvious' that Dom subbed back in as bad, to me. Dom's behaviour looks pretty good since he subbed back in.

LC has also had a new level of confidence since.... oh, I dunno... about the time the bowl thing was announced? He seems to have gone into overdrive.

Troupe - possible team

sprit
soneji
LC
Quin

I think that's what we are looking at. It's my 'theory of the game', if you will. LC being Olaf.

How many votes is a ton? 4? 7?

Suppose Sorsha, DDL and Quin don't vote. Suppose Dom doesn't play along cause he's a rebel. Suppose whoever we try to lynch doesn't self vote.

That leaves 4, maybe five non badies to try to lynch Olaf. And then you go right back to trying to lynch Quin tomorrow.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I wish Daisy had felt the need to tell us why she's so sure MP is on the up and up.

One player on the short list vouching for another player on the short list makes me itchy. Very few MP posts (especially if Daisy skipped some during catch-up). Several dead info gatherers.

I don't believe Daisy. There's little reason to.

[Tangrowth]

I wish Daisy had felt the need to tell us why she's so sure MP is on the up and up.

One player on the short list vouching for another player on the short list makes me itchy. Very few MP posts (especially if Daisy skipped some during catch-up). Several dead info gatherers.

I don't believe Daisy. There's little reason to.

Because she's right.

And if you don't believe her why didn't you vote for me?

[Tangrowth]

I'm beyond confused. Be back in a bit.

[sig]

See that is the thing I really dislike jack's vote.

@Jack could you explain your Quin lynch? Since I see no reason why'd you support it unless you have malicious intentions, when i don't recall you wanted him gone or lynched.

[Golden]

I wish Daisy had felt the need to tell us why she's so sure MP is on the up and up.

MP looks pretty good to me too. Why are you so fixated on him?

[Golden]

I wish Daisy had felt the need to tell us why she's so sure MP is on the up and up.

One player on the short list vouching for another player on the short list makes me itchy. Very few MP posts (especially if Daisy skipped some during catch-up). Several dead info gatherers.

I don't believe Daisy. There's little reason to.

Because she's right.

And if you don't believe her why didn't you vote for me?

Or her...

[Sorsha]

I haven't read anything from this day phase yet. Bbl

[Golden]

One player on the short list vouching for another player on the short list makes me itchy.

Welcome to how the rest of us feel about you, LC and Quin...

[Jackofhearts2005]

I wish Daisy had felt the need to tell us why she's so sure MP is on the up and up.

One player on the short list vouching for another player on the short list makes me itchy. Very few MP posts (especially if Daisy skipped some during catch-up). Several dead info gatherers.

I don't believe Daisy. There's little reason to.

Because she's right.

And if you don't believe her why didn't you vote for me?

Cause there's no way to get enough votes on you by my estimation.

If Sorsha, DDL and Quin were going to be around today and if Golden and Daisy hadn't already thrown away their votes, maybe I would.

Quin implied his death would somehow catch you. Let's go, minesweeper.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Sig was entirely responsible for the glorfindel/sprit suspicion from the start, and was the only one out of anyone who gave reasons beyond glorf subbing out (and was on it before glorf subbed out). There is no good reason to have him at orange in your rainbow, it's just bizarre.

Yes there is. We still don't know why Glorfindel subbed out or the conversations he may have had with his team about it. He could have told his team to bus him for the civ cred towards the beginning of the game.
The fact that he was replaced anyway does counter that theory to a degree, but there's no good reason to think that both couldn't have happened.

No team in their right mind would ever say 'yes' to this.

If Glorf comes in to my team and asks to be bussed day one, I tell him 'ask for a replacement, we are not bussing you'. What a waste of a limited resource that would be. Especially in a game where you only get a kill once every second day.

Epi did that on Guess Who and you didn't say anything.

[Jackofhearts2005]

One player on the short list vouching for another player on the short list makes me itchy.

Welcome to how the rest of us feel about you, LC and Quin...

Yeah, but you know I'm not mafia.

Why does MP get the benefit of the doubt but I don't? Only one of us can be lying to you.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Not that I don't agree with Sig = town btw. Just pointing out contradictions.

[Golden]

Sig was entirely responsible for the glorfindel/sprit suspicion from the start, and was the only one out of anyone who gave reasons beyond glorf subbing out (and was on it before glorf subbed out). There is no good reason to have him at orange in your rainbow, it's just bizarre.

Yes there is. We still don't know why Glorfindel subbed out or the conversations he may have had with his team about it. He could have told his team to bus him for the civ cred towards the beginning of the game.
The fact that he was replaced anyway does counter that theory to a degree, but there's no good reason to think that both couldn't have happened.

No team in their right mind would ever say 'yes' to this.

If Glorf comes in to my team and asks to be bussed day one, I tell him 'ask for a replacement, we are not bussing you'. What a waste of a limited resource that would be. Especially in a game where you only get a kill once every second day.

Epi did that on Guess Who and you didn't say anything.

You didn't ask to be bussed day one, and you already had heat from others.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

The only reason I brought it up again is because you asked me and that was my specific answer to that question.

Incredibly specific. I asked if you thought he was bad and you said "No, I think he's Ishmael". Then you went on to post further and call posts he made 'damning'.

How can anything pointing to him being Ishmael be "damning"? That's why I think you are shifting attention.

If you ask me if that's what I think, I'm going to tell you what I think. That's just a no brainer. I went further because your night kill survival opened up a new train of thought and I decided to pursue it.

If you don't agree with the word 'damning', read his posts and tell me why you disagree. There threat Ishmael poses is insignificant compared to the baddies, yet he came in with a clearly anti-Ishmael agenda, even instructing the baddies to seek him out and kill him. I'd say that's pretty strong distancing.

Why does someone need to distance from their own role? Why wouldn't the real Ishmael ideally want to minimise the threat that can be caused by their role? Doesn't it make more sense for Ishmael to be someone who talked about how little of a threat they were?

I disagree with the word 'damning' because Ishmael is no threat to the town. Are you suggesting we need to deal with Ishmael at some point?

The Syndicate has a 'lynch rogues if all else fails' philosophy that I've pretty often since I joined. It's no surprise that indies would want to distance themselves from their roles.

And I'm not suggesting we lynch him at all. I'm using damning to illustrate that I think I have a strong case.

linki: You're arguing semantics.

This is a generalization.

Explain why Ishmael would be seen as a threat in this game.

[Golden]

One player on the short list vouching for another player on the short list makes me itchy.

Welcome to how the rest of us feel about you, LC and Quin...

Yeah, but you know I'm not mafia.

No I don't.

[Jackofhearts2005]

One player on the short list vouching for another player on the short list makes me itchy.

Welcome to how the rest of us feel about you, LC and Quin...

Yeah, but you know I'm not mafia.

No I don't.

If I'm Troupe, LC dies instead of Spirit2 on Day 1.

The mod told you the GGs are dead.

Please explain how I can be mafia.

[Golden]

Why does MP get the benefit of the doubt but I don't? Only one of us can be lying to you.

Good to know you are outright telling me that 'one of you must be lying'.

But it doesn't explain why you trust Quin.

I've played what feels like 100 games with MP. He isn't getting 'the benefit of the doubt'. I don't think he is bad. He's fooled me before, though. But not often. I don't know you at all. I do know LC, and what I know is LC would absolutely revel in a plot that would lock clear you.

Having said that - right now I wouldn't say I trust either of you, exactly. I'm keeping my mind open to the idea that either of you are bad.

But you and LC coming out and suddenly defending Quin post-fact of my vote is unhelpful. I'd been angling toward him as a key suspect all day. Why did neither of you ever make a proper case about why Quin looks good and not on sprit's team if you wanted to defend him so much?