A Mafia of Unfortunate Events [END GAME]

#3601

Is it at all possible that Quin is trying to stop the end of the game so that the cult doesn't lose?

#3602

I am not trying to stop a civilian win, Golden.

#3603

Quin wrote:I am not trying to stop a civilian win, Golden.

That's not what I said.

#3604

Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:I am not trying to stop a civilian win, Golden.
That's not what I said.

I know.

#3605

I'm actually leaving in like 10 minutes

#3606

So... MP, Daisy and Quin might end up voting a civilian in order to delay the end of the game.

Jack, what would you do?
Sorsha would vote in self defence, obviously.

That might mean that only me, sig, DDL and Dom are actually voting for a town victory today. And that's assuming none of them are cult as well.

I guess Ishmael just became a threat.

#3607

Dom, I see you there, I want your thoughts badly. Are you willing to vote Sorsha today?

#3608

It must be that none of the four of us are cult. If the cult numbered four, they could lynch sorsha and they'd be at 50%.

If all of the four of us vote for sorsha, I believe we can carry the day and get the civs a win. And Jack would win as well.

#3609

Golden wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:@Golden

Maybe you think there's no world where a mafia member busses a teammate at the very beginning without provocation but I've seen it happen, specifically when the player that got thrown under the bus wasn't going to be able to participate much and would have replaced out if he hadn't been lynched.
Are any of those situations where the numbers were as against scum teams as they are here? Were there two teams that could kill each other? Were there two potential civ vigs?

There are extenuating circumstances here. I saw it happen once at RYM, that someone bussed their teammate without provocation on day one, and won the game for it. But they never had any risk of natural attrition to their team, because they held the only kill.

Here, we were talking about a 4 person scum group out of 25 players.

In the game I linked to, the setup starts here (http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/showpost. ... count=1748).

18 townies, 2 serial killers, 2 cult recruiters (one that would kill and then his targets would resurrect as cult a few days later and another that would "corrupt" his recruits and they'd turn cult if they ever lynched a townie), 1 survivor and a 7 member mafia team. Major rule differences on the site are majority required for lynching, claiming and infodumping allowed (hell, encouraged) and generally all kills happen every night instead of mafias/sks alternating.

So, the mafia in question had more expendable members and less alternative lynch candidates (at least at the beginning). Both games would require the scum to survive quite awhile and not get shot up at night to win. I think that's basically the heart of what you're asking, yeah?

Rokk (the busser) lead the town around, lynching a couple neutrals and drawing doctor and bodyguard protection for much of the game. That was honestly the biggest advantage to the tactic. The mafia got free kills the townies of their choice because the "most townie" player was actually mafia. The bussed player had a powerful ability (doctoring, essentially, quite useful with like 6 indy/town killing roles) but also a downside (could win with the town if he was the last mafia member and a specific townie, the character's sister, was still alive).

The details of the "Sig could be Troupe" theory are very reminiscent of that game with a powerful scummer with an ability that could backfire and a player that can't participate getting lynched early and the lynch leader basically arguing "I wouldn't do that if I was mafia."

That said, I'm not discounting your take on Sig's meta or the differences between that game and this one.

Linki: I've been selectively replying. I"m at least a page behind. Someone asked "What would I do" and I'm gonna have to read a bit before I can answer.

#3610

Do that, Jack! We're at a fork in the road, here.

#3611

DDL, Dom, sig - I think that provided we all agree to vote together, we're going to be fine.

#3612

Quin wrote:
Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:
Golden wrote:I don't believe there are two because I don't think Sorsha would pull that stunt if there were two. But, MP and Daisy are the other options in my mind. Dom a very outside chance, but I feel confident I have him pegged.
MP and Daisy are not Troupe. Dig me?
Sig, DDL and Dom are not Troupe. Dig me?

That's why I'm telling you that it's Sorsha and Sorsha alone. I'm sure of it.
With the role I've got you pegged as, I don't know how you could have cleared two townies.

There could be more ways to clear people than just the ones liosted in the OP.

#3613

Quin wrote:
Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:Are you saying that there is a zero percent chance that your research is wrong?
I'm saying that you don't know what the percentage of me being wrong is, and I don't know what the percentage is for you either, and we can't know that for sure. But if you believe I'm town and I believe you're helping the town then the way we win the game is to trust each other and leave the tinfoil reads behind until such time as we haven't solved the game and we need to think again.
I don't have that luxury right now.

I don't think you have the luxury of tinfoiling, actually.

Follow Occam's razor. If that fails, then you start wondering where the claims and the information went wrong.

#3614

I'm itching to vote now. I don't know what in formation can be gained.

But there isn't really much reason to vote now either so I'm holding the temptation.

#3615

Unchangeable votes are cruel. I love to vote.

#3616

It's simple really. If we were to give the cult a break and let them try to win, sorsha just kills a cult member to delay their victory and put them in the same position tomorrow. Town doesn't have the luxury of being merciful.

#3617

VFD can protect someone though. Or RB Sorsha.

#3618

Golden wrote:It's simple really. If we were to give the cult a break and let them try to win, sorsha just kills a cult member to delay their victory and put them in the same position tomorrow. Town doesn't have the luxury of being merciful.

Yes you do. The Vfd exists.

#3619

And if VFD is cult they have no reason not to do that.

Unless Sorsha is cult too.

#3620

Or... we can lynch MP and end this madness.

But I reckon it will be way harder to get traction on an MP lynch than a Sorsha one.

#3621

Oh Ishmael is lynch immune isn't he. Nvm.

#3622

So, MP, who do you want to lynch today?

#3623

Quin wrote:Golden, let's leave sig out of it for a moment.

Let's talk about Dom, using the logic I used to accuse sig. This isn't some 'if it applies to Dom, why doesn't it apply to sig' thing. I'm genuinely asking.

Dom voted to lynch LC, who would be very likely to have the bowl. The civs have no particularly strong reason to want the bowl out of play, given that lynches are their primary tool if they don't have a night kill. Do you agree? The baddies are the ones who want the bowl out of play, because it essentially leaves that townie/indy/other scum team member immune to their roles.

what exactly are you accusing me of here?

Quin wrote:
Golden wrote:I just have been working on a lot of deductive reasoning throughout the game. You get hints here and there, you put it together, you figure things out.

I wouldn't have voted you yesterday, either, but for Jack's vouching for LC, which confused me as to your role because I bumped you for LC. It's one of those things where I could be wrong all over the place, but I'm pretty sure I'm not, because things fit together well.

linki - you are so stubborn.

Why do sig or dom try to kill sorsha, quin? What sense does that make?
Night kill analysis isn't my thing. I'm more comfortable going off what I can read, and I can't read their BTSC chat.

Nobody wanted to lynch sig except for me, so I think he has free reign over the night kill. It's just another bucket of 'what' he could hide behind.

As for Dom, he's a low flier. Not sure he actually knows what's going on.

linki: I get that. It's not that I don't trust you. But I'm aware that your reason for wanting to clear those two could be wrong.

I have, never in my life, been accused of being a non-participant until y'all new people came in.

I skipped 30+ pages of the game when I replaced back in. So yeah, a bit confused. No one EVER offered a recap. And you all suck and lynched me in the first place.

Golden wrote:Dom, I see you there, I want your thoughts badly. Are you willing to vote Sorsha today?

yeah i think i've made that clear if not drunkenly

#3624

Quin wrote:
Golden wrote:It's simple really. If we were to give the cult a break and let them try to win, sorsha just kills a cult member to delay their victory and put them in the same position tomorrow. Town doesn't have the luxury of being merciful.
Yes you do. The Vfd exists.

The VFD doesn't help us that much at all. Especially since the mafia should know who they are. So just ignore the VFD and take out civs until they wi.

Personally I'd say if Sunny wasn't sure who to shoot they should aim for the VFD, no point in maybe killing townies. However, I think the chances of the civs winning this phase is high.

@Golden I'm pretty certain Dom is a civ, I don't think a mafia Dom would vote for.

Also do we think Poe was blocked last night? It could explain the no kill from Olaf, but there was an attempted kill. I'm very unsure here, the final baddies/baddie has to be between MP, Daisy, and Sorsha.

So I suggest we decide on one, I guess Sorsha, and go for it.

linki: I gave you a recap Dom?

#3625

Dom wrote:
Quin wrote:Golden, let's leave sig out of it for a moment.

Let's talk about Dom, using the logic I used to accuse sig. This isn't some 'if it applies to Dom, why doesn't it apply to sig' thing. I'm genuinely asking.

Dom voted to lynch LC, who would be very likely to have the bowl. The civs have no particularly strong reason to want the bowl out of play, given that lynches are their primary tool if they don't have a night kill. Do you agree? The baddies are the ones who want the bowl out of play, because it essentially leaves that townie/indy/other scum team member immune to their roles.
what exactly are you accusing me of here?

Quin wrote:
Golden wrote:I just have been working on a lot of deductive reasoning throughout the game. You get hints here and there, you put it together, you figure things out.

I wouldn't have voted you yesterday, either, but for Jack's vouching for LC, which confused me as to your role because I bumped you for LC. It's one of those things where I could be wrong all over the place, but I'm pretty sure I'm not, because things fit together well.

linki - you are so stubborn.

Why do sig or dom try to kill sorsha, quin? What sense does that make?
Night kill analysis isn't my thing. I'm more comfortable going off what I can read, and I can't read their BTSC chat.

Nobody wanted to lynch sig except for me, so I think he has free reign over the night kill. It's just another bucket of 'what' he could hide behind.

As for Dom, he's a low flier. Not sure he actually knows what's going on.

linki: I get that. It's not that I don't trust you. But I'm aware that your reason for wanting to clear those two could be wrong.
I have, never in my life, been accused of being a non-participant until y'all new people came in.

I skipped 30+ pages of the game when I replaced back in. So yeah, a bit confused. No one EVER offered a recap. And you all suck and lynched me in the first place.

Golden wrote:Dom, I see you there, I want your thoughts badly. Are you willing to vote Sorsha today?
yeah i think i've made that clear if not drunkenly

Nobody can effectively recap over 30 pages. At least my memory isn't that good.

#3626

Golden wrote: Explain to me this - if you were on sprit's team, and there was a bus going in, is there any world in which you as a team allow the votes between sprit and LC to be tied so as to clear three people?

Sorsha was clearly blocked. Look at the person of indeterminate gender role!

Are we cleared, though?

We were only cleared as not Troupe and even then, Sig said he believed I was Troupe yesterday and voted to lynch a person I said I was sure wasn't scum. Doesn't seem like those "confirmations" hurt the mafia much.

I don't get your point about the person of indeterminate gender. Sorsha couldn't block and kill at the same time. That would take two

Golden wrote: Third, there are two apparently civilian killers out there. There is no reason for townies to presume that only townies would want to get their hands on the bowl. I see no good reason why sig or dom ought to consider LC to be town even if they knew he had the bowl. Before yesterday came, I actually bid what I get to prevent LC getting his hands on it because I was afraid LC was Olaf.

So, no, I don't think that LC was voted to get the bowl out of play. That's not to say it's impossible, but it seems unlikely.

LC was a rolechecker. That's dangerous to the mafia.

Golden wrote:So... MP, Daisy and Quin might end up voting a civilian in order to delay the end of the game.

Jack, what would you do?
Sorsha would vote in self defence, obviously.

That might mean that only me, sig, DDL and Dom are actually voting for a town victory today. And that's assuming none of them are cult as well.

I guess Ishmael just became a threat.

I'd pursue my win condition.

Lots of wild and not so wild theories floating about.

Priority is to determine how many mafia members there are.

#3627

sig wrote:
Quin wrote:
Golden wrote:It's simple really. If we were to give the cult a break and let them try to win, sorsha just kills a cult member to delay their victory and put them in the same position tomorrow. Town doesn't have the luxury of being merciful.
Yes you do. The Vfd exists.
The VFD doesn't help us that much at all. Especially since the mafia should know who they are. So just ignore the VFD and take out civs until they wi.

Personally I'd say if Sunny wasn't sure who to shoot they should aim for the VFD, no point in maybe killing townies. However, I think the chances of the civs winning this phase is high.

@Golden I'm pretty certain Dom is a civ, I don't think a mafia Dom would vote for.

Also do we think Poe was blocked last night? It could explain the no kill from Olaf, but there was an attempted kill. I'm very unsure here, the final baddies/baddie has to be between MP, Daisy, and Sorsha.

So I suggest we decide on one, I guess Sorsha, and go for it.

linki: I gave you a recap Dom?

It's like you want me to lynch you.

#3628

There's one mafia member. It's Sorsha. We're now beyond a shadow of a doubt on this. This is where I believe we stand.

We have four civilians. They are sig, dom, DDL and I.
One survive to win indy, Jack
Three Ishmael indies, MP, Daisy, Quin
One Troupe member, sorsha.

The civilians best move is to end this, and sorry to the cult. I can't sit by and watch a civilian get lynched, nor can I guarantee that even if I did that, the cult would be able to win tomorrow. We might just be back in the same spot.

Good to hear that DDL, Dom and sig are all on the same page. I think that's what we need.

@Jack - there is no reason to assume a kill would stop you using your role power. I've never seen that done here.

#3629

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:LC was a rolechecker. That's dangerous to the mafia.

Huh. I never noticed that.

#3630

Golden wrote:There's one mafia member. It's Sorsha. We're now beyond a shadow of a doubt on this. This is where I believe we stand.

We have four civilians. They are sig, dom, DDL and I.
One survive to win indy, Jack
Three Ishmael indies, MP, Daisy, Quin
One Troupe member, sorsha.

The civilians best move is to end this, and sorry to the cult. I can't sit by and watch a civilian get lynched, nor can I guarantee that even if I did that, the cult would be able to win tomorrow. We might just be back in the same spot.

Good to hear that DDL, Dom and sig are all on the same page. I think that's what we need.

@Jack - there is no reason to assume a kill would stop you using your role power. I've never seen that done here.

That hurts.

#3631

Quin wrote:That hurts.

I bet. I wouldn't want to be in your shoes. It's most unfair.

But, seriously, what are my other options? You simply cannot guarantee that no cult members die overnight, you can't guarantee we won't be back here tomorrow, sorsha can play us off against each other, and while I would like to be magnanimous and help everyone get a win, circumstances are such that, instead, the civs could end up losing. Also, by extending the game you're risking VFD losing as well.

#3632

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:And if VFD is cult they have no reason not to do that.

Unless Sorsha is cult too.

If Sorsha was cult the game would be over.

#3633

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I'm itching to vote now. I don't know what in formation can be gained.

But there isn't really much reason to vote now either so I'm holding the temptation.

If we have all four of us on board, there isn't much reason not to vote either. But I only want to do it when all four of us are absolutely agreed.

#3634

Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:That hurts.
I bet. I wouldn't want to be in your shoes. It's most unfair.

But, seriously, what are my other options? You simply cannot guarantee that no cult members die overnight, you can't guarantee we won't be back here tomorrow, sorsha can play us off against each other, and while I would like to be magnanimous and help everyone get a win, circumstances are such that, instead, the civs could end up losing. Also, by extending the game you're risking VFD losing as well.

If you're so confident Sorsha is the last baddie, the VFD will role block her. Poe just needs to keep his hands to himself and not kill any indies.

#3635

@Golden

So if Sorsha is the last scummer and the poig, she could block and kill in one night? Block and kill herself? Why do this instead of just blocking and killing say...you? Doesn't this also cause a paradox? Roleblocker roleblocking herself.

Sig's suggestion that Sunny shoot at the VFDs says he doesn't think the game ends today, which is troublesome.

#3636

I will vote for Sorsha unless new info comes in.

#3637

Quin wrote:
Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:That hurts.
I bet. I wouldn't want to be in your shoes. It's most unfair.

But, seriously, what are my other options? You simply cannot guarantee that no cult members die overnight, you can't guarantee we won't be back here tomorrow, sorsha can play us off against each other, and while I would like to be magnanimous and help everyone get a win, circumstances are such that, instead, the civs could end up losing. Also, by extending the game you're risking VFD losing as well.
If you're so confident Sorsha is the last baddie, the VFD will role block her. Poe just needs to keep his hands to himself and not kill any indies.

What if she roleblocks the VFD first?

#3638

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:@Golden

So if Sorsha is the last scummer and the poig, she could block and kill in one night? Block and kill herself? Why do this instead of just blocking and killing say...you? Doesn't this also cause a paradox? Roleblocker roleblocking herself.

Sig's suggestion that Sunny shoot at the VFDs says he doesn't think the game ends today, which is troublesome.

Good point.

#3639

Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:
Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:That hurts.
I bet. I wouldn't want to be in your shoes. It's most unfair.

But, seriously, what are my other options? You simply cannot guarantee that no cult members die overnight, you can't guarantee we won't be back here tomorrow, sorsha can play us off against each other, and while I would like to be magnanimous and help everyone get a win, circumstances are such that, instead, the civs could end up losing. Also, by extending the game you're risking VFD losing as well.
If you're so confident Sorsha is the last baddie, the VFD will role block her. Poe just needs to keep his hands to himself and not kill any indies.
What if she roleblocks the VFD first?

I don't know how that would work. DFaraday can answer how he'd tackle this.

#3640

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:@Golden

So if Sorsha is the last scummer and the poig, she could block and kill in one night? Block and kill herself? Why do this instead of just blocking and killing say...you? Doesn't this also cause a paradox? Roleblocker roleblocking herself.

Sig's suggestion that Sunny shoot at the VFDs says he doesn't think the game ends today, which is troublesome.

Well, Jack, I don't know if sorsha gets lynched today. And that makes me as scared as sig.

Sorsha would do it for the clear he gives her. But we don't even know she did block herself. She could have been blocked by someone else too. She could have been counting on it. I mean, surely she knew that Poe would probably target her, for instance. If he kills her, what does she have to lose? She may as well gamble on his block. Plus, there's no reason to assume the VFD wouldn't also block her.

It's a pretty smart gamble, precisely because of the kind of tinfoiling you are doing.

But it's time to stop the tinfoil and trust me.

#3641

Additionally troubling is how the Sorsha reads turned from town to only possible mafia member overnight with no Sorsha posts inbetween.

What changed?

Why is Dom town? Dom's alignment is important for determining Sig's imo. (Cause I think hes a specific townie is unconvincing. I need reasons or at least key posts).

Linki: For the clear? I was mechanically cleared and nobody cared. Unconvincing argument. Why would Sorsha shoot herself? Why would the scum shoot Sorsha if she wasn't scum? No good answer to either of those questions.

#3642

My Rainbow List (in-terms of how much someone is not Troupe, indies don't count)

DDL
Sig
Golden
Jack
Quin
MP
Daisy
Dom
Sorsha

#3643

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:My Rainbow List (in-terms of how much someone is not Troupe, indies don't count)

DDL
Sig
Golden
Jack
Quin
MP
Daisy
Dom
Sorsha

I don't understand this list.

#3644

Maybe I do.

#3645

I'm really just waiting for the absolute definite from dom. I'm sure sig will be in.

#3646

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Additionally troubling is how the Sorsha reads turned from town to only possible mafia member overnight with no Sorsha posts inbetween.

What changed?

Why is Dom town? Dom's alignment is important for determining Sig's imo. (Cause I think hes a specific townie is unconvincing. I need reasons or at least key posts).

Linki: For the clear? I was mechanically cleared and nobody cared. Unconvincing argument. Why would Sorsha shoot herself? Why would the scum shoot Sorsha if she wasn't scum? No good answer to either of those questions.

There is either trust, or there isn't trust. All I want is a straight answer from you, are you going to stick with the town, or help the cult. That's all it comes down to now. The consequence for helping the cult is that, by pushing the day into extra phases, you could risk your own death. The consequence of helping the town is your buddy quin could lose. You're in a shit position.

I already gave you everything you needed to deduce dom's role, yesterday and today, if you want to try, so that you can get yourself in to the mindset of why dom is a townie. But, for me, it's just about picking a side at this point.

#3647

I mean, I don't need a straight answer. I'm confident that provided all four of the townies vote for sorsha, the game ends today and there is nothing the cult can do to stop it. I just want one because I want you to be on board with us, I guess.

#3648

There are nine players tho. What if Jack sides with Sorsha?

#3649

Do the VFD win as a team, or do they need each to be alive to win?

#3650

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Do the VFD win as a team, or do they need each to be alive to win?

I think they win as a team, but honestly I don't even know if this game is 'alive to win' or not.

Who needs to practice their stabbing?