Homestar Runner [Day 13]

[A Person]

I've thought about the hut problem some more. The best strategy is not merely to send in a PM. The best strategy is to convince everyone else not to send in a PM, and then send in one yourself. This drastically increases the chance of survival.

For this reason, I may consider a vote for A Person today.

That would be a good idea, but since it's done in secret I'd have no way of knowing if people actually do it.

It doesn't matter. Every person who doesn't send in a PM increases the survival chances of those who do. So even if only a few people followed your advice, it would still benefit you.

ture, but it also benefits everyone else who sends in a PM. My reasoning behind choosing to go with trogdor was to lower the chances of dying for those who happened to be in the hut trogdor chose.

[Tangrowth]

Turns out my current GMAT lecture is Sentence Correction 2 (a topic I'm mostly comfortable with and I can listen along with), so I'm multitasking listening to it and trying to catch up. I have about 7 pages to read. Hopefully I'll have at least some thoughts here; that way I don't have to cram all of my reading and then analyzing and then posting within less than an hour at lunch tomorrow.

[thellama73]

An A Person vote might not be the worst of ideas, but I'm still strongly leaning towards Devin for reasons that became apparent during last lynch.

Yeah, I worry about Devin too. His "lynch me everybody!" feels like it might be an elaborate double bluff. Then again, some of his commentary yesterday when he thought he was going to die sounded like a sincerely frustrated civ (I should know! Ha!) so I am unsure about him at the moment.

ture, but it also benefits everyone else who sends in a PM

Which is why it would be a good plan for someone with BTSC teammates to suggest.

[A Person]

ture, but it also benefits everyone else who sends in a PM

Which is why it would be a good plan for someone with BTSC teammates to suggest.

ture, but even if I had BTSC I'd still think about lying to my teammates, so I'm sure others would as well.

[thellama73]

I can't decide whether I've caught A Person attempting something fiendishly clever, or whether he just had a bad idea he didn't fully think through.
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/HanlonsRazor
I hope other people will weigh in.

linki: that makes no sense to me.

[A Person]

All I mean to say is that I'd rather have a teammate die than me die.

[Vompatti]

ture, but it also benefits everyone else who sends in a PM

Which is why it would be a good plan for someone with BTSC teammates to suggest.

ture, but even if I had BTSC I'd still think about lying to my teammates, so I'm sure others would as well.

I hope someone won't accuse me of not reading the roles, but don't the teams who have BTSC win with their teams? How would lying to your teammates increase your chances of winning, whether you die or not?

[A Person]

ture, but it also benefits everyone else who sends in a PM

Which is why it would be a good plan for someone with BTSC teammates to suggest.

ture, but even if I had BTSC I'd still think about lying to my teammates, so I'm sure others would as well.

I hope someone won't accuse me of not reading the roles, but don't the teams who have BTSC win with their teams? How would lying to your teammates increase your chances of winning, whether you die or not?

I'd rather be alive than dead.

[Vompatti]

ture, but it also benefits everyone else who sends in a PM

Which is why it would be a good plan for someone with BTSC teammates to suggest.

ture, but even if I had BTSC I'd still think about lying to my teammates, so I'm sure others would as well.

I hope someone won't accuse me of not reading the roles, but don't the teams who have BTSC win with their teams? How would lying to your teammates increase your chances of winning, whether you die or not?

I'd rather be alive than dead.

Don't you ever wish you had never been born?

[A Person]

Don't you ever wish you had never been born?

i do that fairly often k

[Vompatti]

Don't you ever wish you had never been born?

i do that fairly often k

me too k

[A Person]

Don't you ever wish you had never been born?

i do that fairly often k

me too k

[timmer]

ture, but it also benefits everyone else who sends in a PM

Which is why it would be a good plan for someone with BTSC teammates to suggest.

ture, but even if I had BTSC I'd still think about lying to my teammates, so I'm sure others would as well.

you would lie to your reammates?

[timmer]

oy, that came out wrong.

[A Person]

ture, but it also benefits everyone else who sends in a PM

Which is why it would be a good plan for someone with BTSC teammates to suggest.

ture, but even if I had BTSC I'd still think about lying to my teammates, so I'm sure others would as well.

you would lie to your reammates?

I wouldn't, but I would assume my teammates would lie to me.

[Vompatti]

ream 2 (rm)
tr.v. reamed, ream·ing, reams
1. To form, shape, taper, or enlarge (a hole or bore, for example) with or as if with a reamer.
2. To remove (material) by this process.
3. To squeeze the juice out of (fruit) with a reamer.

[A Person]

I thought it was 500 sheets of paper[

[Vompatti]

I woudlnt' mind 500 sheets of paper, if you know what I mean.

[A Person]

true, printer paper is eixspensive

[Vompatti]

ture

butt i haven't had to buy it lately because i haven't written anythin.g

[A Person]

ture

butt i haven't had to buy it lately because i haven't written anythin.g

not even for nerouvs ouhoares q.m.

[Vompatti]

ture

butt i haven't had to buy it lately because i haven't written anythin.g

not even for nerouvs ouhoares q.m.

i wrote the essay about communism butt i'll mostly put in old stuff like ellen's oiled vagina k

[A Person]

ture

butt i haven't had to buy it lately because i haven't written anythin.g

not even for nerouvs ouhoares q.m.

i wrote the essay about communism butt i'll mostly put in old stuff like ellen's oiled vagina k

oih
that one is classic k
what about the story with a bit of necrophilia q.m.

[Vompatti]

ture

butt i haven't had to buy it lately because i haven't written anythin.g

not even for nerouvs ouhoares q.m.

i wrote the essay about communism butt i'll mostly put in old stuff like ellen's oiled vagina k

oih
that one is classic k
what about the story with a bit of necrophilia q.m.

i don't think i have that anywhere k ;/Ä*&(

[A Person]

:*(

[Vompatti]

I wonder if anyone has a copy k

[Matahari]

Good grief, it's hard to catch up in this game. I started trying back when svs made her last post, and then more posts/ accusations to catch up on, then more, until I've almost forgotten where I started. I'm going to weigh in now, before trying to catch up again.

First let me say that I'm sorry I can't do multi quotes. I am completely on an iPhone, and each time I start a quite post, I have to transfer between screens, when I grab a quote, and go back to my screen with the post, it starts over and whatever I had in there is gone. Sucks. If its very important, I can do a lot of 1 quote posts, boosting my post count unfairly, but if I'm mentioning just pings, I'll try to just address people in one post.

So here goes: svs, I'd like to hear your opinion on Bea. It would be nice to move her off my ping list, if other people trust her. She made the one response to my post to her, saying that she might not have noticed my original post, then she was removed from the poll. Then she got fairly quiet after that. That us one reason why she is still a ping for me, because I feel like she is trying not to attract attention. I don't know if that is for a good or bad reason, so I'm interested in opinions about bea's style of playing.

Mp- at one point, you stated that you were leaning 1% civvie on mongoose, but by the end of your post, you said mongoose was not getting your vote that day. 99% non-civvie seems like a powerful incentive to lynch someone, I don't understand your thinking here.

Ok, there's more but I forgot it. I'll be back after I read back a little.

[thellama73]

ture, but it also benefits everyone else who sends in a PM

Which is why it would be a good plan for someone with BTSC teammates to suggest.

ture, but even if I had BTSC I'd still think about lying to my teammates, so I'm sure others would as well.

you would lie to your reammates?

I wouldn't, but I would assume my teammates would lie to me.

It wouldn't matter if your teammates lie to you, as long as you sent a PM. Your explanations make increasingly little since.

[A Person]

It wouldn't matter if your teammates lie to you, as long as you sent a PM. Your explanations make increasingly little since.

Sense when? I just think you have roughly the same chance of dying with the hut thing and just randomly choosing someone to die.

[thellama73]

It wouldn't matter if your teammates lie to you, as long as you sent a PM. Your explanations make increasingly little since.

Sense when? I just think you have roughly the same chance of dying with the hut thing and just randomly choosing someone to die.

Yes, you have roughly the same chance with the hut thing and randomly choosing someone to die, but only if everyone agrees to your method. If anyone defects, their odds increase and yours decrease. It would be good strategy for a team to say "let's all send in our pms, and then convince other people not to. It would increase the odds for that team surviving considerably if they could get people to fall for it. Whether you then decided to lie to your team about what you actually did would make no difference.

[Tangrowth]

I've felt really strange this past week, and just earlier this morning I was heavily contemplating getting replaced in this game because I felt so insanely overwhelmed. Nonetheless, even though I sometimes don't feel like playing this, I don't want to do that. I just am feeling time-rushed because my GMAT test in a month and I'm behind my self-inflicted schedule... so, again, not sure how often I will pop around. When I do pop around, I'll try to post a TON, for that reason, since I won't be able to show up much at all, so I might as well take advantage of the times I do have to come here.

Now I know people are complaining about my long posts, so I'm going to break my thoughts up. First, to discuss what happened on Day 2. Second, to address specific players' posts/quotes. Then lastly, to share my current suspicions.

I really should be studying more intently, and I actually had to pause my multitasking to do some of this, but what can I say, despite so much going on in my life right now, this game is awesome, and it consumes my thoughts.

Wow, okay. Lots of crazy stuff. First off, RIP no one for Day 2, RIPIYWG borrokuei, sad to see you go on a friend level, not sure how I feel on a player level, and welcome back IYWG Bullzeye! I had good vibes on you before you left, so I think this is good. And welcome to S~V~S, bye to reywaS! I appreciate your thoughts as you catch up, S~V~S, and very much look forward to what you have to say once you catch up regarding what I am about to say, in addition to your own thoughts after reading through everything, and in response to anyone else.

First off, I am absolutely surprised players seem to be clearing llama, or at the least believing that he is no longer worthy of votes. This is very odd. Things are not that simple. There is actually more than what meets the eye as to what happened in Day 2; it is possible that Devin was supposed to die. Want proof? Go look at the roles; there is one civvie role that we know of that has a second vote (Poopsmith) AND there are some secret abilities as well as prizes. This means it is perhaps even possible the lynch was tied and Devin was chosen to die. However, I don't believe that to be true, but it's a possibility.

More importantly, I feel it is helpful to examine how these roles could have survived Day 2. One of them was a civvie lynch stop (Crackotage). One is a civvie who cannot be lynched (Homsar) and one is a baddie who cannot be lynched (Cheerleader). I feel it is especially notable that the Crackotage role not only has one lynch stop but TWO lynch stops.

Given the fact that Devin received five votes literally out of nowhere and within a very short time frame, it could be possible either Devin or llama to be this role. In fact, llama repeatedly said he did not know how he survived. His behavior consistently indicated this to not be the case. I find this post most notable:

I'm not an unlynchable baddie. After reading the roles I can only conclude that some kind soul stopped the lynch on my behalf. Thank you, kind soul!

I find it interesting llama came to this conclusion because I am starting to think it might be true.

Look at Devin's behavior, in contrast:

Why is it that I'm ALWAYS lynched early as a civ.

Go ahead keep voting for me!
I ask for no pardon in the way I say this but the civvies will be fucked if I am lynched. I reference boo's circumstance in Bioshock as being EXACTLY like mine.

But as I said, don't let this stop you from voting for me. Keep voting for me. I have no protection. I will not survive this. Just keep voting

Notice how he references boo in Bioshock. Also how he so blatantly says to keep voting for him, that he has no protection, won't survive, and wants everyone to keep voting. His behavior since this post has been similar.

In addition, he posted this:

Well, I'll be back after I've been lynched. Laters!

When he could have seriously considered he would be the one to die. Now, ask yourself, if Devin were Crackotage, and you were in his shoes, would you use your lynch stop, especially if you had two? Damn sure I know I would.

It's even possible that Devin is Homsar and knew he will never be lynched. It would actually make a lot of sense given that he is playing a wacky game and posting a ton. Think about it: he is not exactly trying to draw attention to himself, but he seems to think it is harmless.

On the flipside, it is also possible Devin is Cheerleader. But for Devin to be Homsar and Cheerleader, there had to be at least some level of vote manipulation taking place here. The only way that could happen would be the civvie role that has two votes cast his or her second vote for Devin OR one of the secrets. Therefore, those possibilities are less likely.

I think the most plausible explanations for what happened on Day 2 are either of the following:
- Devin decided to stop the lynch, fearing he would die, even though by the end of the period he did not have the most votes.
- llama is Homesar or the Cheerleader. However, his behavior does not seem to match either of these, so if I had to guess, definitely I would say the Cheerleader. Also, I still believe him to be bad, perhaps even more so now, but more on that later.

There are many possibilities, in fact, but I believe both of those to be the most likely.

[Tangrowth]

Now to address some specific quotes/posts:

MP, I think you and I just have different approaches to situations. I will promise I will vote you today if you are my main suspicion but as much as people say mafai and personal are separate, it would not make me happy to vote for a friend at a time like this. I will however pledge to do that if the time comes. The other thing I note is I think I am clear on why you voted for Vompatti I just don't agree that its a civv thing to do to try and lynch someone just to get information. Maybe I'm not understanding you correctly but that is what it sounds like you are saying.

I know you said you won't be back on here but when you are maybe you could address this. In one place in your post you say:

" Keep an eye for players trying to drum up suspicions on players out of nowhere for weak reasons."

And then you turn around and say:
"I do agree that Matt F's observations are notable. It's funny you mentioned juliets, Matt, because I'm not too sure I've been seeing a civvie JC here either, but didn't want to mention her just yet because I really am on the fence about her, and it's so early in the game so it's hard to interpret intentions using so little to go off on."

I would argue here that Mr F's post is exactly what you said in the first post: Mr F trying to drum up suspicions on players out of nowhere for weak reasons. I can't see anything weaker than making a case based on what people might have said if they had bts.

So it seems like you would see the suspicion on me drummed up out of nowhere for weak reasons. You instead said that you were on the fence about me and Matt's post was notable. So I ask you, what exactly have I said or done that's caused you to be slightly suspicious? And do you really think a made up conversation that supposedly took place in a made up bts is notable?

First, you don't agree my vote for Vompatti was a civvie thing to do. It is your right to disagree.

Second, to address everything else. I thought Matt F's theory, while convoluted, was notable. I didn't say it was genius; I said it was notable. Notable does not even mean correct.

Sure, his were weak reasons, but they fell in line with the vibes I've been getting both from you and llama, so I believed them to be of note (hence, notable). I am very much on the fence about you, especially as it's too early to tell, but my thoughts about your posts thus far as to why I believe you might be worthy of suspicion can be summarized succinctly by I think you might be insincere in some of your posts.

And I entirely disagree, Matt F is at least trying. His case is far from what the "weakest" could be. I think that's actually a bit absurd, especially since so many players randomized for Day 1 and latched onto other players' thoughts for Day 2.

MP, I think you and I just have different approaches to situations. I will promise I will vote you today if you are my main suspicion...

I assume this goes for everyone else, as well? Yet you voted Gleam, a low poster, after accusing me of being a baddie and being partners with Lizzy.

Okey dokey.

Folks, if I am wrong about Llama, I sincerely apologize, but even in my original long ass post, I said "I may be wrong about Dom or Llama, but Juliets is DEF baddie". Her posts after my susps post make me continue to believe that.

As for peeps saying I will go down if Llama is lynched and flips civ, what??? I am not the sole voter in this game, what I did was come up with a case against three players whom I believe to be baddie.

Nearly all I have to say, sir, is that I can relate with you so much here.

I also want to point out that your observation regarding juliets's contradictory Day 2 vote is noteworthy. I agree it was a pointless vote and perhaps a nefarious one.

OK, Day One:

I have to say I don't quite understand or agree with any of the votes against me.

This ^^

It is also interesting that you took NO votes Day Two It always makes me scratch my head when people drop their suspicions. I also found the Day One results interesting in that Snows vote for Elo was #19, there were like 8 more votes after that, and only one was made for a person that could be construed as a potential save vote, Hedgies vote for you at # 25. So I am gonna guess that, with the potential exception of Hedgie, who I have mixed feelings about, Elos other teammates voted before Snow did.

I find this very interesting as well. I am not getting particularly civvie vibes from Vompatti.

Also, interesting observation about Elo's other teammates voting before Snow. That is a very good train of thought. I think you might just be right.

Good grief, it's hard to catch up in this game. I started trying back when svs made her last post, and then more posts/ accusations to catch up on, then more, until I've almost forgotten where I started. I'm going to weigh in now, before trying to catch up again.

First let me say that I'm sorry I can't do multi quotes. I am completely on an iPhone, and each time I start a quite post, I have to transfer between screens, when I grab a quote, and go back to my screen with the post, it starts over and whatever I had in there is gone. Sucks. If its very important, I can do a lot of 1 quote posts, boosting my post count unfairly, but if I'm mentioning just pings, I'll try to just address people in one post.

So here goes: svs, I'd like to hear your opinion on Bea. It would be nice to move her off my ping list, if other people trust her. She made the one response to my post to her, saying that she might not have noticed my original post, then she was removed from the poll. Then she got fairly quiet after that. That us one reason why she is still a ping for me, because I feel like she is trying not to attract attention. I don't know if that is for a good or bad reason, so I'm interested in opinions about bea's style of playing.

Mp- at one point, you stated that you were leaning 1% civvie on mongoose, but by the end of your post, you said mongoose was not getting your vote that day. 99% non-civvie seems like a powerful incentive to lynch someone, I don't understand your thinking here.

Ok, there's more but I forgot it. I'll be back after I read back a little.

Mata, that's my fault, you misunderstand what I mean. I often see my suspicions as more of a suspicion bar that looks like this:

100% LIKELY BADDIE ------ 50% LIKELY BADDIE ------ 20% LEANING BADDIE ---- 0% TOTALLY UNSURE ---- 20% LEANING CIVVIE... etc. You get the point. So I meant that Mongoose is literally right on the other side of the 0%, on the civvie side. Hopefully this helps.

Also, regarding bea, I am totally unsure of her intentions, but I do want to hear from others about her.

MP thinks I'm bad for reasons not entirely clear to me. So does Davin, and so does Matt F. They say I sound inauthentic, or something.

So untrue. Man, you are reading so freaking baddie to me this game, it is starting to bother me. I feel this is the perfect segway to my observations about you in the subsequent post.

[Tangrowth]

Now, as to my current suspicions and thoughts... Llama is at the top of my list. If I had to vote now, I would be voting for him again today. I was largely unsure of him before, but something in my gut is making me feel just more and more sure that he is not on our side this game. That said, I am not positive at all, still, as it's almost impossible to be, especially at this stage -- so I'm glad I don't have to vote now. I'm trying to avoid railroading him, but I'm really, really feeling strong about him, so I'm trying to balance the OMG civvie gut "LLAMA MUST BE BAD" Alex with the rational and cautious Alex. It is proving to be difficult. Yes, my mafia self is bi-polar, or something.

There are others as well... I am very wary of juliets, Vompatti, and even Devin, as I'm just unable to decipher their intentions. Additionally, I am starting to wonder if we have been psyched out by Hedgeowl. There was this huge movement against her, orchestrated by llama, with many players saying she seemed most worthy of a vote, and then... NO votes on Day 2. Absolutely none. And hardly anyone is talking about her now. So maybe I was wrong in her intentions and she is lying her ass off, and well. I don't know.

Another thing is I think we should look more closely at players who latched onto Devin and llama yesterday.

It's possible I might go any of those ways, or as the day develops, something else more strong will come up.

I must admit, BWT is starting to catch my eye as well. He voted for llama yesterday and his thoughts seem very with-the-crowd and flip floppy. That being said, I have a terrible track record of reading him, despite knowing him very well IRL, so I really just want to open up discussion on him and see what others think.

I am almost tempted to vote Devin, but I fear he is not the unlynchable baddie, and I really don't know what he is doing here. I don't think we should waste our time on him regardless of whether he is lying or civvie or baddie or whatever.

Additionally, quiet players need to speak more. I might even be tempted to go with Gleam or DFaraday and others, or to at the very least throw their names around. I very highly doubt I'll vote any way here, but hey, anything could happen.

I strongly feel that Matt F is not a Teen Girl Squad baddie in this game. I could be wrong, as he is very hard to read, but of anyone in the game, I think I "trust" him the most at this moment. He could very well be a Blue Laser or Trogdor, and so I'm far from advocating his civvieness, but I want to say this because I find it weird there was a bit of a push in his direction towards the end of Day 2 and such. Whether it was by civvies or baddies or both, I think it might be misguided.

FWIW, I am seeing normal A Person behavior, nothing to tell me whether he is civvie or baddie. I honestly have no idea. I find it odd llama is beginning to make a mountain out of a molehill already here (more on this later).

Regardless, I really, really want feedback on everything. I don't want to railroad llama or anyone else, so if you guys think I'm way off here or if you agree or have anything to say at all, I don't care, just tell me.




Despite what llama has said, I have pointed out quotes or instances from him that make me feel uneasy. Considering he has 128 posts this game and I don't have all the time in the world, I am not going to do my classic-going-through-his-posts-and-telling-you-guys-how-suspicious-he-is-case-building-thing that I do as a civvie (and try to copycat as a baddie), especially since I believe that leads to my own tunnel vision.

However, I do believe llama is manipulating the thread, and he's doing a fantastic job of it. His suspicions, in reality, are all over the place. He also is trying to appear as logical as possible, when in reality, he is exhibiting occasional behavior that is blatantly in the face of what he should know from playing mafia now for as long as he has (and he has exhibited knowledge of these items in other games). This is the clincher for me. It just seems so off. And lastly, especially if Devin is a civvie, the way things went down in Day 2 don't look very good for llama, it must be said, but that's just my take on the matter. He comes up with a pretty arbitrary reason to vote for Devin, tries to make it seem as convincing as possible, then BOOM, votes bandwagon onto him out of nowhere. It struck me as so insincere, all of it.

I can't believe people are taking that crazy, rambling post by Matt F seriously. It's just a bunch of imagined conversations that might have taken place in BTSC. Anyone can do that. I can imagine Matt F in BTSC saying "dude! I'm going to make a long and rambling post linking llama and dom and juliets and it will be hilarious." See? Easy.

I am not bad, I have no BTSC, and if I am lynched I suspect there will be much han wringing and gnashing of teeth among the civilians. I beg my friends in the animal sanctuary not to let this injustice stand.

Also, why are BDH and BWT telling ghost stories?

Dom agrees with me here. I pointed out this post of llama's in a previous post of mine, but thought it deserved to be looked at again. Why would a civvie llama say this? It pings me greatly as completely insincere. Llama, of all people, should recognize that Matt F is behaving the way he is, and that he very well could be a civvie.

In fact, llama has recognized this fact in many games before, and even gave S~V~S the BOTD big time in Mario when she was railrorading Nevinera (all three of which were civvies, it should be said), and realized that civvies can be wrong about civvies.

He doesn't seem to be displaying this bit of information here.

Additionally, llama seems to think that civvies can't make logical fallacies:

I've thought about the hut problem some more. The best strategy is not merely to send in a PM. The best strategy is to convince everyone else not to send in a PM, and then send in one yourself. This drastically increases the chance of survival.

For this reason, I may consider a vote for A Person today.

That would be a good idea, but since it's done in secret I'd have no way of knowing if people actually do it.

It doesn't matter. Every person who doesn't send in a PM increases the survival chances of those who do. So even if only a few people followed your advice, it would still benefit you.

What benefit would A Person have in coming out in the thread and speculating as he has? It's possible he is Trogdor, but the WIFOM associated with that is so strong, and any mafia veteran knows that it's better to NOT attract suspicion when you have an SK role like that, especially in a game like this where Trogdor cannot be traced by whom he kills. He only picks a hut and it kills someone in that hut, so he can't even be traced by his kill targets, something he can use to his advantage. So why would Trogdor come out in the thread and try to influence the way anyone is behaving with regards to Trogdor PMs? There is no reason for him to.

There is a civvie and a baddie explanation for A Person's behavior. Having known A Person very well over the years, I can testify that it seems completely normal for him, and I do not understand how it is telling of alignment.

Yet llama jumps out of the gate and tries to start this bullshit suspicion of him. Llama comes up with all kinds of wacky theories, but they usually have a twisted sense of logic behind them.

What kind of logic is behind this?

This suspicion of his really bothers me because you would think llama would want to assist in looking at players who are bandwagoning, or something more concrete. This suspicion is just so ridiculous IMO.

Sorry, I meant no offense. I definitely talk too little, since I have such a hard time deciding/keeping track of everything.

Ha, no worries; everyone knows it's true.

That said, back to baddie hunting -- so if Hedge, Llama and I are all going to be safe on the animal sanctuary, where does that leave us in terms of suspects?

I think I'm leaning towards Lizzy at this point. She is playing radically different than both other games I've had with her (and I know she is around because she signed up for Sherlock.)

linki Lizzy: thanks for proving my point.

This is the ONLY time he's mentioned Lizzy. He has said nothing about her ever before or since. Don't believe me? Go through his posts.

He did the same type of thing with Hedgeowl. Said he was all ready to vote for her, then conveniently waited until after I said she seemed sincere, and then agreed and did not even vote for her.

While I'm still reading, Juliet, please address your first two posts in the game, and also please explain why you think me and Lizzy are bad, but are voting for Gleam.

Thank you!

Looking forward to the lynch post. If I am wrong here, which I don't think I am, I will obviously have to reevaluate my opinion of Dom.

Juliet...not so much.

Already preparing excuses for when I flip civ, I see.

Posts like these just seem sarcastic, a bit snarky, and totally unlike civvie llama, at least how I have seen. Those who played Bioshock, think about it. Llama's posts in that game were incredibly insightful, gallant, and he was more than willing to consider all the possibilities. I am just not seeing that llama here. At all. And it's really bothering me.

Lastly, the thing that's bothering me the most is that he keeps shrugging off all the suspicions against him as completely unexplained and baseless, when in fact, I've elaborated on my thoughts about him in detail. I realize my thoughts on him are far from concrete and actually pretty abstract, but here are all the times I've mentioned llama as suspicious or in a quasi-suspicious light:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 661#p31661 Before I even said llama was worthy of any attention for being suspicious, I pointed out an observation here how his thoughts on me seemed to waffle and contradict a bit. He responded and said they are compatible. Up until this point, I actually talked back and forth with llama a bunch, giving him the BOTD before judging his intentions.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 231#p32231 I said I was feeling wary of llama here and said it was pretty much mostly gut. I even tell him I know it's hard to defend against.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 312#p32312 I addressed him twice here. Nothing substantial, but it's something.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 349#p32349 Here is my Day 2 vote for llama. It elaborates as to my exact interpretation of his actions. I explain that I had to vote early for RL reasons and I told him it wasn't much at all, but it was gut, so I had to listen to it.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 584#p32584 Now here I explained I have already given specific instances, such as his suspicion mongering, and provide that he read very much like a baddie stuck in a corner last lynch, etc.

That last quote especially is consequently why it bugs me when llama then says to S~V~S that he's unsure why I even suspect him. Before that, OK, maybe, and before the last two or three quotes, sure, I totally get why he doesn't understand. But surely he should see by now that I believe him to be insincere in his intentions and that I have provided instances of this?

I really want players to tell me what they think of this. I could be totally off the mark or maybe I'm onto something. I don't know. But it's what I really feel is going on, and it's unfair to keep it to myself just because I'm afraid of railroading a civvie.

Wow. Okay. I took way too long on all of this. I really have to go now and stop procrastinating on other things. The soonest I'll be back is maybe tomorrow morning (?), but more likely tomorrow at lunch since I'll be in the office.

[Vompatti]

tfw wall of post

[Matahari]

It wouldn't matter if your teammates lie to you, as long as you sent a PM. Your explanations make increasingly little since.

Sense when? I just think you have roughly the same chance of dying with the hut thing and just randomly choosing someone to die.

Scents my sniffer is detecting something foul here. Isn't everything chosen very randomly? How could anyone predict anything?

[A Person]

It wouldn't matter if your teammates lie to you, as long as you sent a PM. Your explanations make increasingly little since.

Sense when? I just think you have roughly the same chance of dying with the hut thing and just randomly choosing someone to die.

Yes, you have roughly the same chance with the hut thing and randomly choosing someone to die, but only if everyone agrees to your method. If anyone defects, their odds increase and yours decrease. It would be good strategy for a team to say "let's all send in our pms, and then convince other people not to. It would increase the odds for that team surviving considerably if they could get people to fall for it. Whether you then decided to lie to your team about what you actually did would make no difference.

ture, I just meant without doing the hut thing at all. Or randomly assigning huts. Without the vote being public there's no incentive to talk about it or strategize, it's just random. Unless someone were to be able to convince people to act a certain way like you said I could be, but people obviously know they'd be putting themselves in danger. It also wouldn't make sense if i was trogdor, because I'd highly doubt there is any one hut that's completely empty, and from the way I understand it, any kill is good for him.

It wouldn't matter if your teammates lie to you, as long as you sent a PM. Your explanations make increasingly little since.

Sense when? I just think you have roughly the same chance of dying with the hut thing and just randomly choosing someone to die.

Scents my sniffer is detecting something foul here. Isn't everything chosen very randomly? How could anyone predict anything?

There's no real way, but if the vote were public again, you could actively choose to bunch together or spread apart.

[Matahari]

I remember the other thing I wanted to post about. A few other people also brought this up. Mongoose had sort of a ready answer for everything- first she was just discussing theories about the day 0 poll, then she was worrying about discussing theories, after someone questioned her about it. mp posted that everyone should stop discussing things, I don't know but if they were teammates, maybe someone was close to figuring something out about them connected to day 0. Or maybe it's nothing. I reread Kate, who didn't get a lot of time to post but she did mention mongoose and elohcin.

Now mp said he couldn't see mongoose and elohcin actually having that Convo in thread if they were teammates. So maybe they weren't, but mongoose could be on the other team and unluckily for her, chose to converse with a cheerleader.

These were just the thoughts going through my head while reading and they may not make a lot of 'logic' cents, but thoughts and theories happen. So there ya go.

Speaking of fowl, I'm going to reread hedgeowl next

[thellama73]

Wow, that's a lot to address. I will do my best.

I can't believe people are taking that crazy, rambling post by Matt F seriously. It's just a bunch of imagined conversations that might have taken place in BTSC. Anyone can do that. I can imagine Matt F in BTSC saying "dude! I'm going to make a long and rambling post linking llama and dom and juliets and it will be hilarious." See? Easy.

I am not bad, I have no BTSC, and if I am lynched I suspect there will be much han wringing and gnashing of teeth among the civilians. I beg my friends in the animal sanctuary not to let this injustice stand.

Also, why are BDH and BWT telling ghost stories?

Dom agrees with me here. I pointed out this post of llama's in a previous post of mine, but thought it deserved to be looked at again. Why would a civvie llama say this? It pings me greatly as completely insincere. Llama, of all people, should recognize that Matt F is behaving the way he is, and that he very well could be a civvie.

In fact, llama has recognized this fact in many games before, and even gave S~V~S the BOTD big time in Mario when she was railrorading Nevinera (all three of which were civvies, it should be said), and realized that civvies can be wrong about civvies.

He doesn't seem to be displaying this bit of information here.

I still don't understand what the accusation against that post of mine is. I do not really think Matt F is bad and have not accused him of being bad. I think he is wrong. I was criticizing the people who were reading his rambling post and going "yeah, great point." It wasn't a great point. It comtained nothing but speculation.

Additionally, llama seems to think that civvies can't make logical fallacies:

What benefit would A Person have in coming out in the thread and speculating as he has? It's possible he is Trogdor, but the WIFOM associated with that is so strong, and any mafia veteran knows that it's better to NOT attract suspicion when you have an SK role like that, especially in a game like this where Trogdor cannot be traced by whom he kills. He only picks a hut and it kills someone in that hut, so he can't even be traced by his kill targets, something he can use to his advantage. So why would Trogdor come out in the thread and try to influence the way anyone is behaving with regards to Trogdor PMs? There is no reason for him to.

There is a civvie and a baddie explanation for A Person's behavior. Having known A Person very well over the years, I can testify that it seems completely normal for him, and I do not understand how it is telling of alignment.

Yet llama jumps out of the gate and tries to start this bullshit suspicion of him. Llama comes up with all kinds of wacky theories, but they usually have a twisted sense of logic behind them.

What kind of logic is behind this?

I specifically said that AP might have just been wrong and not baddie, and I have not decided to vote for him yet. If he had just said "yeah, I was wrong" I would probably have let it drop, but his defenses make no sense. You don't understand why a baddie would benefit from encouraging people not to send in hut PMs? Really? If they could convince people to go along with the plan, they could drastically increase their team's chances of surviving Trogdor.

I think I'm leaning towards Lizzy at this point. She is playing radically different than both other games I've had with her (and I know she is around because she signed up for Sherlock.)

linki Lizzy: thanks for proving my point.

This is the ONLY time he's mentioned Lizzy. He has said nothing about her ever before or since. Don't believe me? Go through his posts.

Lies.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 354#p32354

The reasoning behind all your "evidence" against me this game seems uncharacteristically weak for you, MP. You are usually better than this.

[Vompatti]

I wish Lizzy was around more k

[A Person]

I wish Lizzy was around more k

ture

[thellama73]

It also wouldn't make sense if i was trogdor, because I'd highly doubt there is any one hut that's completely empty, and from the way I understand it, any kill is good for him.

Agreed. I don't think you are Trogdor.

[Tangrowth]

Here literally only for a second because I knew llama would respond. My responses are in light purple. Tried to use my phone but oh my god how terrible that is. Then I need to leave and stop procrastinating things, seriously.

Wow, that's a lot to address. I will do my best.

I can't believe people are taking that crazy, rambling post by Matt F seriously. It's just a bunch of imagined conversations that might have taken place in BTSC. Anyone can do that. I can imagine Matt F in BTSC saying "dude! I'm going to make a long and rambling post linking llama and dom and juliets and it will be hilarious." See? Easy.

I am not bad, I have no BTSC, and if I am lynched I suspect there will be much han wringing and gnashing of teeth among the civilians. I beg my friends in the animal sanctuary not to let this injustice stand.

Also, why are BDH and BWT telling ghost stories?

Dom agrees with me here. I pointed out this post of llama's in a previous post of mine, but thought it deserved to be looked at again. Why would a civvie llama say this? It pings me greatly as completely insincere. Llama, of all people, should recognize that Matt F is behaving the way he is, and that he very well could be a civvie.

In fact, llama has recognized this fact in many games before, and even gave S~V~S the BOTD big time in Mario when she was railrorading Nevinera (all three of which were civvies, it should be said), and realized that civvies can be wrong about civvies.

He doesn't seem to be displaying this bit of information here.

I still don't understand what the accusation against that post of mine is. I do not really think Matt F is bad and have not accused him of being bad. I think he is wrong. I was criticizing the people who were reading his rambling post and going "yeah, great point." It wasn't a great point. It comtained nothing but speculation.

You don't think he's bad? Yet you accused him of "making up excuses for when you flip civvie" (not exact quote, but close enough, don't have time to pull it). Why would a civvie have to make up excuses? Bullshit.

Additionally, llama seems to think that civvies can't make logical fallacies:

What benefit would A Person have in coming out in the thread and speculating as he has? It's possible he is Trogdor, but the WIFOM associated with that is so strong, and any mafia veteran knows that it's better to NOT attract suspicion when you have an SK role like that, especially in a game like this where Trogdor cannot be traced by whom he kills. He only picks a hut and it kills someone in that hut, so he can't even be traced by his kill targets, something he can use to his advantage. So why would Trogdor come out in the thread and try to influence the way anyone is behaving with regards to Trogdor PMs? There is no reason for him to.

There is a civvie and a baddie explanation for A Person's behavior. Having known A Person very well over the years, I can testify that it seems completely normal for him, and I do not understand how it is telling of alignment.

Yet llama jumps out of the gate and tries to start this bullshit suspicion of him. Llama comes up with all kinds of wacky theories, but they usually have a twisted sense of logic behind them.

What kind of logic is behind this?

I specifically said that AP might have just been wrong and not baddie, and I have not decided to vote for him yet. If he had just said "yeah, I was wrong" I would probably have let it drop, but his defenses make no sense. You don't understand why a baddie would benefit from encouraging people not to send in hut PMs? Really? If they could convince people to go along with the plan, they could drastically increase their team's chances of surviving Trogdor.

You're suspicion mongering. You did the same damn thing with Mongoose and Elohcin. It's a subtle "oh let me draw attention to this person so that I keep it off myself and my teammates". Don't try to tell me you haven't tried setting this up already for A Person. It's more of the "oh, but I didn't say they were baddie, did I? I left open a possibility for them not to be!" It doesn't matter. You said you might even vote for him, correct? Wouldn't that mean you believe him to be bad strongly enough at this point to consider voting for him, even in the face of all the evidence that we have to go off of like voting records? And yet you threw out you were considering putting a vote on A Person for THIS?

I think I'm leaning towards Lizzy at this point. She is playing radically different than both other games I've had with her (and I know she is around because she signed up for Sherlock.)

linki Lizzy: thanks for proving my point.

This is the ONLY time he's mentioned Lizzy. He has said nothing about her ever before or since. Don't believe me? Go through his posts.

Lies.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 354#p32354

Okay, so I missed one post. You have 128. I must have missed it; I apologize. My point still stands. Your suspicions are all over the freaking place

The reasoning behind all your "evidence" against me this game seems uncharacteristically weak for you, MP. You are usually better than this.


You think so? Yeah, that could be due to the fact that nearly all of the reasons I feel you are bad are not evidence. They are my interpretations. Way to misrepresent my intentions and try to discredit me.

And you wonder why I am usually better at this? How many times have we played a game together and I was a lone civvie? Once? Out of god knows how many? Hmmm. I wonder why I'm usually better than this then.

[thellama73]

What you call suspicion mongering, I call investigating and feeling people out. When you have no teammates to confer with, it is hard to tell who is good or bad. How they react to being pressed can tell you a lot. I don't know who I'm voting for yet today, so I'm exploring other people's reactions.

[Draconus]

YAY! Thanks whoever had a rezz, I love you (a little)! Okay so I've been following along but only barely so I might need to reread the past day or so but I'm pretty much ready to slaughter some baddies. Trogdor too. You'd better believe I'm gonna kill him right in the face.

@SVS: I did not play GTA. My general tactic with baddie info though is to push it while also pushing the option I think is most likely to be civ (see Pokemon on HV) so if it flies back in my face I can claim I was only really pushing the civ option and just accidentally believed a baddie option was good. But I'm a civ and voted for a civ option so it doesn't matter anyway.

@Strong Sad: You seem to think I'm bad judging from your poem the night I was senselessly murdered by that brutish dragon. I hope you've realised the error in your judgment and if not I hope I can convince you to do so

You're welcome! Welcome back!!!

2 whole pages to catch up on brb... Prewarning I may post as I go so sorry in advance.

[Draconus]

An A Person vote might not be the worst of ideas, but I'm still strongly leaning towards Devin for reasons that became apparent during last lynch.

Thanks for the reminder! votes Vompatti
Why? Because I already said I was going to (way before seeing this). This shouldn't be a surprise, but if you want to vote for me still go right ahead! The more votes the merrier!

By the way, vomps, I completely respect the way you play the game and I always love having the wombat around In fact, you, Lizzy, and Zany Dex have inspired my current play style.

[Draconus]

I'm atill on spotty wifi so can't look back but did a person realky suggest not sending in a hut? that's an odd suggestion.

Meant to address this in my previous post along with making an additional comment: The additional comment is that I am extremely pinged by the rare responses vompatti makes to llama.
That said: Yes, A Person's suggestion is odd. But that's all it is. Odd. I will not be voting for A Person because of this silly idea and I think that Vomps and llama are just trying to circulate someone else's name who hasn't really been discussed yet.

[Draconus]

Well, I'll be back after I've been lynched. Laters!

When he could have seriously considered he would be the one to die. Now, ask yourself, if Devin were Crackotage, and you were in his shoes, would you use your lynch stop, especially if you had two? Damn sure I know I would.

It's even possible that Devin is Homsar and knew he will never be lynched. It would actually make a lot of sense given that he is playing a wacky game and posting a ton. Think about it: he is not exactly trying to draw attention to himself, but he seems to think it is harmless.

On the flipside, it is also possible Devin is Cheerleader. But for Devin to be Homsar and Cheerleader, there had to be at least some level of vote manipulation taking place here. The only way that could happen would be the civvie role that has two votes cast his or her second vote for Devin OR one of the secrets. Therefore, those possibilities are less likely.

I think the most plausible explanations for what happened on Day 2 are either of the following:
- Devin decided to stop the lynch, fearing he would die, even though by the end of the period he did not have the most votes.
- llama is Homesar or the Cheerleader. However, his behavior does not seem to match either of these, so if I had to guess, definitely I would say the Cheerleader. Also, I still believe him to be bad, perhaps even more so now, but more on that later.

There are many possibilities, in fact, but I believe both of those to be the most likely.

No, I would have actually died. I just didn't care. I still don't tbh. But if you try to lynch me today, it will not work. Just trust me. I have only lied once during this entire game. It would be a waste of time to try and lynch me today, so just try again tomorrow.

I will say this, though. I wouldn't be surprised that the reason we didn't see a NK from TGS is that they tried to kill me and failed.

Now, discuss

[Matahari]

Either way, I missed the deadline and didn't send in a PM and am still alive.

Devin, a person missed a pm, do you know for certain that you were targeted last night for a kill?

[BigDamnHero]

My main suspicion still lies with Moving Pictures and the following post he made makes it even worse for him in my eyes:

When he could have seriously considered he would be the one to die. Now, ask yourself, if Devin were Crackotage, and you were in his shoes, would you use your lynch stop, especially if you had two? Damn sure I know I would.

It's even possible that Devin is Homsar and knew he will never be lynched. It would actually make a lot of sense given that he is playing a wacky game and posting a ton. Think about it: he is not exactly trying to draw attention to himself, but he seems to think it is harmless.

On the flipside, it is also possible Devin is Cheerleader. But for Devin to be Homsar and Cheerleader, there had to be at least some level of vote manipulation taking place here. The only way that could happen would be the civvie role that has two votes cast his or her second vote for Devin OR one of the secrets. Therefore, those possibilities are less likely.

I think the most plausible explanations for what happened on Day 2 are either of the following:
- Devin decided to stop the lynch, fearing he would die, even though by the end of the period he did not have the most votes.
- llama is Homesar or the Cheerleader. However, his behavior does not seem to match either of these, so if I had to guess, definitely I would say the Cheerleader. Also, I still believe him to be bad, perhaps even more so now, but more on that later.

There are many possibilities, in fact, but I believe both of those to be the most likely.

He started off the game worrying about the TINIEST chance that a civilian role would be compromised during the "Day 1 info" discussions, and now he's basically throwing out players names and the civilian roles he believes them to be! Yes, he gives potential other baddie options, but his entire ideology/strategy seems to be going back and forth and all over the place.

[Dom]

YAY! Thanks whoever had a rezz, I love you (a little)! Okay so I've been following along but only barely so I might need to reread the past day or so but I'm pretty much ready to slaughter some baddies. Trogdor too. You'd better believe I'm gonna kill him right in the face.

@SVS: I did not play GTA. My general tactic with baddie info though is to push it while also pushing the option I think is most likely to be civ (see Pokemon on HV) so if it flies back in my face I can claim I was only really pushing the civ option and just accidentally believed a baddie option was good. But I'm a civ and voted for a civ option so it doesn't matter anyway.

Bullz, did you play Avant Garde 2? Most (if not all) of my team voted for our option and we actually won the game.... and one of us was lynched pretty early.

MP, I think you're spot on with Llama. He's been extra dismissive. He and Dev have been all over the place and I think they're both good people to look at. BDH, I think you should think about how dismissive Llama has been. He really has not taken any suspicion of himself very seriously.