Phenon Mafia: ENDGAME - Snuffed

[nutella]

nutella, when you are finished with your speedchuck research could you talk about your suspicion of LC? I am a notoriously bad reader of him - I once handed him the game when I was a civ and he was a baddie. I did skim through his posts and saw he changed to Marmot seemingly on your recommendation which I thought was a good thing but obviously you are seeing something else in him.

A lot of it has to do with connections to other players, including Marmot. When I looked at LC's ISO I got the feeling he's a likely teammate of Marmot's based a few things, and JJJ got the same feeling from Marmot's mentions of LC. I could look back and see if I can pull up specific places that support this feeling, but it's also kind of a general vibe, and also has a lot to do with connections I see to other players who I think could be marmot buddies -- there are several I have considered, but sketchy interactional reads re: LC have been the common denominator between all of them. To be fair, I flip-flopped on LC a fair amount for the first couple days as well, so it might just be that he looks ambiguous and so people have ambiguous feelings toward him, but that's easy for a teammate to hide in, so in my mind it increases the likelihood that I'm right about at least one or two of these possible connections I'm seeing.

[Scotty]

Just finished looking through speedchuck's posts and I am seeing some of the same things that Scotty mentions above. Definitely some weird waffling on MM. He quickly follows me in voting for him, only to switch back to Scotty. Then comes a lot of confusing flip-flopping: before those votes, he had done his Scotty ISO and then a quick one on MM, after which he seemed to have a pretty null read on MM. After he follows my vote, he says Marmot and INH are tied for his second-place scum read/lynch preference after Scotty, and puts them as red in his rainbow. He then switches his vote back to Scotty, says he likes INH's criticism of the MM train, and then suddenly makes that weird post saying he thinks MM and INH are town out of almost nowhere, and says he thinks it's very unlikely that MM and INH are scum. But then at the last minute he puts the finishing vote on MM. I don't really understand what happened in his mind there.

Part of me wants to feel the same way about him that I feel about Sloonei, that he was honestly changing his mind and was flip-flopping with good intentions. But part of me finds it pretty suspicious -- and it goes along with his flip-flopping in reads of LC as well. Early in the game he mentions several times how he could see LC as bad but leans slight town on him nonetheless. Then he goes back to a slight scumread of him after Strawhenge posts a case, but never follows that up. On Day 2 he says "LC gradually made more sense" and later that he's "looking better" and "I'm at a slight town read on him where I was once light scum." Next mention of LC is in the orange section of a rainbow with no explanation. WTF?? Like, I understand having trouble making up your mind on LC because that's how I felt for a while too, but saying you have a town read of him and then suddenly placing him at a solid orange without explaining why... that's textbook teammate behavior.

It was quite enlightening reading back. I was like 2 hours behind when I read back at 10:40p and I was more or less focused on whether or not I got lynched to focus on the specifics. But his motivation makes absolutely no sense. To have a red read on 3 people, vote one, and then fully abandon the other 2, and in fact question whether or not they are TOP TOwN reads leaves me flabbergasted.

That's like looking at 3 murder criminals in a police lineup, admitting they all seem sketchy, and then at the last second going, "oh wait, that guy has a funny looking scar I don't like- he's the murderer! The other ones are so sweet, they used to cut my lawn, you can release them!"

Funny looking scar indeed. You coulda lynched Harry Potter, chuck

[Scotty]

I hate to bring this up because it's probably just harmless dead chat but:

Thanks for the lynch! I can relax a little more easily now.

Thanks for the game sprityo!

Reads to me as someone who probably didn't mind getting the hatchet. I wouldn't excuse anyone on MM as civ.

[juliets]

nutella, when you are finished with your speedchuck research could you talk about your suspicion of LC? I am a notoriously bad reader of him - I once handed him the game when I was a civ and he was a baddie. I did skim through his posts and saw he changed to Marmot seemingly on your recommendation which I thought was a good thing but obviously you are seeing something else in him.

A lot of it has to do with connections to other players, including Marmot. When I looked at LC's ISO I got the feeling he's a likely teammate of Marmot's based a few things, and JJJ got the same feeling from Marmot's mentions of LC. I could look back and see if I can pull up specific places that support this feeling, but it's also kind of a general vibe, and also has a lot to do with connections I see to other players who I think could be marmot buddies -- there are several I have considered, but sketchy interactional reads re: LC have been the common denominator between all of them. To be fair, I flip-flopped on LC a fair amount for the first couple days as well, so it might just be that he looks ambiguous and so people have ambiguous feelings toward him, but that's easy for a teammate to hide in, so in my mind it increases the likelihood that I'm right about at least one or two of these possible connections I'm seeing.

Ok great. Don't bother to pull up specifics - I can look for the connections. I have not reviewed JJJ yet so missed that he had a related observation.

Scotty, I take back what I said about you not having any passion. I guess I'm going to have to suck it up and read yesterday's EOD to get the full flavor.

[Scotty]

nutella, when you are finished with your speedchuck research could you talk about your suspicion of LC? I am a notoriously bad reader of him - I once handed him the game when I was a civ and he was a baddie. I did skim through his posts and saw he changed to Marmot seemingly on your recommendation which I thought was a good thing but obviously you are seeing something else in him.

A lot of it has to do with connections to other players, including Marmot. When I looked at LC's ISO I got the feeling he's a likely teammate of Marmot's based a few things, and JJJ got the same feeling from Marmot's mentions of LC. I could look back and see if I can pull up specific places that support this feeling, but it's also kind of a general vibe, and also has a lot to do with connections I see to other players who I think could be marmot buddies -- there are several I have considered, but sketchy interactional reads re: LC have been the common denominator between all of them. To be fair, I flip-flopped on LC a fair amount for the first couple days as well, so it might just be that he looks ambiguous and so people have ambiguous feelings toward him, but that's easy for a teammate to hide in, so in my mind it increases the likelihood that I'm right about at least one or two of these possible connections I'm seeing.

Ok great. Don't bother to pull up specifics - I can look for the connections. I have not reviewed JJJ yet so missed that he had a related observation.

Scotty, I take back what I said about you not having any passion. I guess I'm going to have to suck it up and read yesterday's EOD to get the full flavor.

It's ok. My defense was pretty lackluster yesterday because I got lynched in GoC along the same lines of not being around to defend myself. And still wasn't around to really defend myself when the same thing was seemingly happening over here. So I was just like "fuck it".

i don't know what it is with Montreal but I've had a hell of a time trying to wake up and do shit here. Something in the air? French toast perhaps? Very pretty city though, if y'all ever get to make it out here. I found a crocheting kit today at a boutique so I think Ima start that because YOLO

Ima crochet a scarf and name it Scarfy

[Quin]

Spoiler: show

Ok, I'm starting here, for reference, I think it's far enough back to get some reads on the MM lynch. It's a bit arbitrary, I almost started a page later, but things were already too "happening" so I went back further. Maybe later I will look back more, but for now, it's there. Some random colouring for separation.

QUESTION FOR EVERYONE:

Would you rather Dyslexicon be lynched, or no one be lynched?

I'll take somebody over nobody unless that somebody is me or someone I am 100% certain is town.

I'll state the obvious. You're one of the few active voters who is still up in the air.

I know you aren't voting MM. I'm trying to convince you to vote Dyslexicon. If we want to actually learn something from this day, we need to get something going here.

Looking over the posts, I thought this was interesting, because Sloonei did vote MM, and (surely) we did learn something from this day!

Silver and INH are at odds.

Quin, who should I vote for?

Eloh, why did you ask Quin in particular?

Sloonei defends Dyslexicon.

I'm surprised that Silver didn't kill INH last night - he suspected him.

I don't think Quin is bad. Does Quin still suspect Dyslexicon? (I apologize if any of these questions are moot by by the time I post)

The Silver-INH thing almost reads like Silver was trying to protect INH with vig threats. I wouldn't be telling the victim who I plan to vig-kill.

Metalmarsh votes Dyslexicon after a short period of self-voting. I guess his self-voting strategy didn't work out.

Sloonei, how do you feel about Silver and speedchuck mocking your willingness to let Scotty prove himself through his Civvie role?

speedchuck, in that post, you are vehemently against a Dyslexicon lynch. Why so vehement, Mr Vehement?

INH brings up an interesting point in that Dizzy had put Nacho down as her only null read. That seems like a rookie error, which she apparently is not, and given Dizzy's presence in the thread, I think it's likely she'd have spoken out against a Nacho kill for that specific reason.

I agree with INH for what he said about her fluctuating read on 3J. I'm not bothered by drops and rises of one or two tiers on a rainbow list, but to describe it as a roller coaster is correct. My interpretation of 3J's standing in the respective posts looks like this

1 A slight scum, for agreeing with me about the Sorsha discussion and voting 3J
2 Says he has no real scum-reads
3 A rainbow list where 3J is listed as his 2nd top town read. Justification is that he couldn't find anything suspicious about him
4 Slight scum, a cold read.

I still don't see evidence that this is an inconsistent thought process rather than a person simply changing their mind a couple of times. What would be the baddie motivation to change it up like that? Or do you believe Dyslexicon simply lost track of his own read on the most vocal player in the game? That would be a genuine slip.

Tbh, this is the one point that I keep waffling on that could convince me that Dys could be bad, and to me it would entail that JJJ is his teammate. But I'd only be willing to entertain that possibility after determining Marmot's and/or INH's alignment.

Ok, nutella, we have determined MM was bad, so can you update this thought?

Sloonei, you defended Dyslexicon multiple times- why so sure she's Civ?

lots of linki. Sloon can you give reasons you think MM is town?

No one would vote for themselves that close to the deadline if they were scum?

Clearly a joke, but I'm inclined to agree with you. Also makes INH look better because if they're scum, they somehow aren't worried about buddying. Like, it's all too bold and brazen to be scum.

Still hate the way INH tries to pursue lynches.

This post from speedchuck is suspicious to me. It's pushing the MM=town agenda in a very loose, light way. Fishing for agreement, subtly influencing.

This post from INH flies in the face of me assuming a teammate wouldn't act that way, because it's too... brazen? Just a suspicious post, in hindsight.

.... ok, that's all I have time for right now. I'm looking at this post by speedchuck. Another "don't lynch MM" sentiment.

Quin does still suspect Dyslexicon. Quin has been lazy and hasn't given mafia any attention since yesterday though, so.

On what LC said, Sloonei brought it up later on, but I don't think Sloonei defended Dyslexicon once yesterday. There were instances where he said he wasn't seeing part of a case, but that can't be called a defence.

[Quin]

Something to throw out there is that Nacho might not have been the intended kill given marmots role flip.

I recall Golden mentioning his actual Night 1 target wasn't who he had initially targeted. Was that person Nacho?

No. I targeted Jay and ended up targeting Fredwood.

Would you agree with me if I said that this indicates that they're very likely not both bad? I don't see a reason marmot would target two of his teammates. One, maybe.

[Golden]

Something to throw out there is that Nacho might not have been the intended kill given marmots role flip.

I recall Golden mentioning his actual Night 1 target wasn't who he had initially targeted. Was that person Nacho?

No. I targeted Jay and ended up targeting Fredwood.

Would you agree with me if I said that this indicates that they're very likely not both bad? I don't see a reason marmot would target two of his teammates. One, maybe.

Full confession, I only just went back and read marmot's role now to be able to answer this (I was sneaking in a moment just to see how he flipped yesterday while with the wife's family). So I haven't dwelt on it, but that makes sense to me. Assuming that it was marmot that redirected me.

[Quin]

Of the two, I'd be more inclined to see Fredwood as bad just because I believe that 3J would have opposed a Nacho kill. It's possible they're both town and marmot just targeted wildly, obviously.

[Sloonei]

A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

[Quin]

Feeling better about Dizzy a bit after seeing her interactions with/about marmot. She was the first to vote for him (to my knowledge), moved off for a while but didn't dial back on her accusations and desire to lynch him. She ended up second on the train after it gained traction via nutella. It reads fine to me.

[nutella]

A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

I'm inclined to agree with this (the hypothesis that Marmot wanted things intended for JJJ to go to his teamie Fred and vice versa).

[Sloonei]

I also have to ask Scotty to elaborate on his scum read against me.

Hi.

In light of rereading the last 7 pages of the EoD, you made bold decisions to turn the tide against Mm and onto me. Speed followed you around like a puppy.

In a way, that makes Speed look worse than you, but I'm not gonna lie: both of you made a joint effort to steer that lynch away from Mm from my perusal and when there was significant backlash to my lynch, only then did you both basically give up on me and seal the fate for MM.

I'd say you guys are looking pretty solidly bad as potential savers for MM.

You think I was steering things? That's remarkable. I had absolutely no idea what I was doing. A reminder once again that I had just subbed into this game during Day 2.

I know about the last point. You keep bringing that up.

I keep bringing it up because none of my accusers seem to acknowledge it. Quin and others earlier accused me of being non-committal, to which I say: how else should I have been? You seem to be accusing me of some sort of calculated scum ploy, to which I say: I'm flattered, but that's not something I could have pulled off. I just got here, after all.

Yes. There were 4 votes parked on MM 4 hours before EoD: after more discussion with yourself, you decided to switch to me, followed by 3 other sycophants. People were following you whether or want to admit it or not. You have a habit of leading discussion, which is awesome by itself, but the discussion quickly turned towards ambiguity towards the end when people weren't biting on y'all's calls for my lynching due to my supposed "contradiction".[/quote]I did not get the sense that I was leading anything. I am not saying that it did not happen, but I was singularly focused on determining my vote. I had no time to worry about persuading anyone else to come along with me. If anyone followed me, that was entirely on them and I was blissfully unaware of the power I held.

Don't play victim here- "I had absolutely no idea what I was doing" you had a enough of a disposition to feel confident in your read of me, even though, as you continually said, you hadn't fully caught up.
Even you yourself said you played sloppily the EoD. I don't owe you results of my night action, and I certainly don't accept you trying to abstain from responsibility of he thread.

On the flip side, I didn't do shit to steer the thread, because I was barely around. Can you agree with that?

I am not trying to play the victim, I am just trying to represent myself as honestly as I can. I did play sloppily. I absolutely did. If you were my strongest scum read and you are as glaringly obviously town as you say you are, that should be a testament to my sloppy play. I was all over the place because I had no idea what I was doing because, again, I just subbed into this game on Day 2 and had less than 48 hours to get caught up and cast a vote. I am repeatedly bringing these things up because they are essential to reading my behavior yesterday. All I was trying to do was figure out what the hell was going on. I took a very fortuitous shot in the dark at the last moment and now I'm receiving heat for it. Sometimes things go right in this game. The sky is not always falling.

[Quin]

A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

What about investigations? Pretty key role you left out.

[Sloonei]

A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

I'm inclined to agree with this (the hypothesis that Marmot wanted things intended for JJJ to go to his teamie Fred and vice versa).

I should also note that we don't know whether or not he's the only misdirector in the game.

[Sloonei]

A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

What about investigations? Pretty key role you left out.

read the sentence at the bottom.

[Quin]

A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

What about investigations? Pretty key role you left out.

read the sentence at the bottom.

No, this is still along the lines of a town 3J. If I'm the cop, 3J is among one of the highest priorities for a cop check. Redirecting said investigation to a scum Fredwood would be a big dumdum.

[Sloonei]

I'm already frustrated by this interactive marmot analysis. Can we all decide on one name to call him by to make searches easier in the future please?

[Sloonei]

A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

What about investigations? Pretty key role you left out.

read the sentence at the bottom.

No, this is still along the lines of a town 3J. If I'm the cop, 3J is among one of the highest priorities for a cop check. Redirecting said investigation to a scum Fredwood would be a big dumdum.

Good point. I suppose I just have a hard time understanding why scum metalmarsh redirects things from town Jay onto another townie.

[Sloonei]

EBWOP

I also have to ask Scotty to elaborate on his scum read against me.

Hi.

In light of rereading the last 7 pages of the EoD, you made bold decisions to turn the tide against Mm and onto me. Speed followed you around like a puppy.

In a way, that makes Speed look worse than you, but I'm not gonna lie: both of you made a joint effort to steer that lynch away from Mm from my perusal and when there was significant backlash to my lynch, only then did you both basically give up on me and seal the fate for MM.

I'd say you guys are looking pretty solidly bad as potential savers for MM.

You think I was steering things? That's remarkable. I had absolutely no idea what I was doing. A reminder once again that I had just subbed into this game during Day 2.

I know about the last point. You keep bringing that up.

I keep bringing it up because none of my accusers seem to acknowledge it. Quin and others earlier accused me of being non-committal, to which I say: how else should I have been? You seem to be accusing me of some sort of calculated scum ploy, to which I say: I'm flattered, but that's not something I could have pulled off. I just got here, after all.

Yes. There were 4 votes parked on MM 4 hours before EoD: after more discussion with yourself, you decided to switch to me, followed by 3 other sycophants. People were following you whether or want to admit it or not. You have a habit of leading discussion, which is awesome by itself, but the discussion quickly turned towards ambiguity towards the end when people weren't biting on y'all's calls for my lynching due to my supposed "contradiction".

I did not get the sense that I was leading anything. I am not saying that it did not happen, but I was singularly focused on determining my vote. I had no time to worry about persuading anyone else to come along with me. If anyone followed me, that was entirely on them and I was blissfully unaware of the power I held.

Don't play victim here- "I had absolutely no idea what I was doing" you had a enough of a disposition to feel confident in your read of me, even though, as you continually said, you hadn't fully caught up.
Even you yourself said you played sloppily the EoD. I don't owe you results of my night action, and I certainly don't accept you trying to abstain from responsibility of he thread.

On the flip side, I didn't do shit to steer the thread, because I was barely around. Can you agree with that?

I am not trying to play the victim, I am just trying to represent myself as honestly as I can. I did play sloppily. I absolutely did. If you were my strongest scum read and you are as glaringly obviously town as you say you are, that should be a testament to my sloppy play. I was all over the place because I had no idea what I was doing because, again, I just subbed into this game on Day 2 and had less than 48 hours to get caught up and cast a vote. I am repeatedly bringing these things up because they are essential to reading my behavior yesterday. All I was trying to do was figure out what the hell was going on. I took a very fortuitous shot in the dark at the last moment and now I'm receiving heat for it. Sometimes things go right in this game. The sky is not always falling.

[nutella]

Pfft, searching is for the weak. I just skim every post in each iso for mentions of him. (To be fair I usually skim just to look for anything notable, not necessarily just marmot mentions, but I feel better knowing I'm not missing anything)

[nutella]

A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

What about investigations? Pretty key role you left out.

read the sentence at the bottom.

No, this is still along the lines of a town 3J. If I'm the cop, 3J is among one of the highest priorities for a cop check. Redirecting said investigation to a scum Fredwood would be a big dumdum.

Good point. I suppose I just have a hard time understanding why scum metalmarsh redirects things from town Jay onto another townie.

Yeah. I don't see any good reason why Marmot would target two townies, one of them being Fredwood who doesn't stand out much/isn't widely read as town. I can't really see him picking Fred to be a target if he wasn't his teammate. So, barring the possibility that this switch was the work of another switching role, I think this is actually pretty damning for Fred. Occam's Razor tells me Fred is MM's teammate.

[Quin]

I just said exactly why this isn't damning for Fred.

[Sloonei]

I just said exactly why this isn't damning for Fred.

This looks like a good time to ISO Fredwood, I think. Who wants to volunteer? I've got marmot things going on.

[Quin]

I just said exactly why this isn't damning for Fred.

This looks like a good time to ISO Fredwood, I think. Who wants to volunteer? I've got marmot things going on.

Not me. I've got dealing-with-borderline-fraud things going on.

[Long Con]

A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

What about investigations? Pretty key role you left out.

read the sentence at the bottom.

No, this is still along the lines of a town 3J. If I'm the cop, 3J is among one of the highest priorities for a cop check. Redirecting said investigation to a scum Fredwood would be a big dumdum.

Wouldn't that make it appear like town JJJ is bad?

[Quin]

A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

What about investigations? Pretty key role you left out.

read the sentence at the bottom.

No, this is still along the lines of a town 3J. If I'm the cop, 3J is among one of the highest priorities for a cop check. Redirecting said investigation to a scum Fredwood would be a big dumdum.

Wouldn't that make it appear like town JJJ is bad?

I'd imagine said cop would be informed that he received Fred's results if Golden's claims are anything to go by.

[Long Con]

A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

What about investigations? Pretty key role you left out.

read the sentence at the bottom.

No, this is still along the lines of a town 3J. If I'm the cop, 3J is among one of the highest priorities for a cop check. Redirecting said investigation to a scum Fredwood would be a big dumdum.

Wouldn't that make it appear like town JJJ is bad?

I'd imagine said cop would be informed that he received Fred's results if Golden's claims are anything to go by.

Well, that is an important assumption. The purpose of a baddie redirector should be to cause misdirection... I'd play it in favour of the baddies if I were the host.

[Quin]

Golden, if you want to, can you explain why you knew your targets had been switched? Was there an in-thread 'thing' you were expecting to see, or were you told explicitly?

This is an ironic question.

[Sloonei]

There is more to come, but doing a cursory glance through marmot's posts to get started and I found exactly 1 mention of Fredwood. It's the same post I pulled out earlier:

@Marmot - Do you still think it was a legit slip? In which case, you should be voting me I guess? That theory is pretty much totally out of the question and I would've expected you to gain info about that also without looking at the other game. It's also not a matter of reading an entire game, it's one post in that game.

The other thing, alrlight *shrug*
Do you have more reads in this game? I know you're busy, but it would be very helpful to know where your head is at.

I dislike DrWilgy because he was a relative inactive Day 1.

I have no read on Elohcin, because there's just no content to judge. I will add a meta caveat, she tends to get more invested in a game when she is mafia. The most invested I've ever seen her was in Series of Unfortunate Events, in which we were mafia teammates.

From the more active participants, I like Golden. I also like Fredwood. I like your posts except for that one post. But I'm going to choose to read you as civilian for now. Nutella I also like.

I don't have much of an impression on the other players.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Strongly agree there's no reason for a mafia busdriver to target two townies (unless you're swapping your kill target, which we can safely assume the mafia didn't).

Disagree that it makes Fred mafia.

Agree that it makes Fred or JJJ mafia. I see little reason not to lynch one of them today.

Not sure what good things the scum would expect the town to send town JJJ's way. Seems like a great way to get scum Fred copped much earlier than he would normally be.

Flip their alignments and townie Fred isn't gonna get much action redirected to scum JJJ while scum JJJ can't be copped, redirecting to Fred instead.

So to me, one of them is bad and from a purely strategic POV, the busdrive makes the most sense if JJJ is mafia.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Of the two, I'd be more inclined to see Fredwood as bad just because I believe that 3J would have opposed a Nacho kill. It's possible they're both town and marmot just targeted wildly, obviously.

Doubtful. To what end?

[Golden]

Golden, if you want to, can you explain why you knew your targets had been switched? Was there an in-thread 'thing' you were expecting to see, or were you told explicitly?

This is an ironic question.

Hmm, I think I'll chose not to answer that one.

I believe that there is no room for doubt, however.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Golden, if you want to, can you explain why you knew your targets had been switched? Was there an in-thread 'thing' you were expecting to see, or were you told explicitly?

This is an ironic question.

Fishing. Do not like.

Combined with Quin wanting us to think JJJ and Fred are both town (he's protecting one mafia member, whoever it is) and the Sloonei accusation and Quin looks bad bad bad.

[Quin]

Golden, if you want to, can you explain why you knew your targets had been switched? Was there an in-thread 'thing' you were expecting to see, or were you told explicitly?

This is an ironic question.

Fishing. Do not like.

Combined with Quin wanting us to think JJJ and Fred are both town (he's protecting one mafia member, whoever it is) and the Sloonei accusation and Quin looks bad bad bad.

ok

[Quin]

Of the two, I'd be more inclined to see Fredwood as bad just because I believe that 3J would have opposed a Nacho kill. It's possible they're both town and marmot just targeted wildly, obviously.

Doubtful. To what end?

To the end that that's what they did. I'm not their strategist.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Of the two, I'd be more inclined to see Fredwood as bad just because I believe that 3J would have opposed a Nacho kill. It's possible they're both town and marmot just targeted wildly, obviously.

Doubtful. To what end?

To the end that that's what they did. I'm not their strategist.

Oh, so you know that JJJ and Fred are both town, then?

How did you come to that conclusion?

[Quin]

Of the two, I'd be more inclined to see Fredwood as bad just because I believe that 3J would have opposed a Nacho kill. It's possible they're both town and marmot just targeted wildly, obviously.

Doubtful. To what end?

To the end that that's what they did. I'm not their strategist.

Oh, so you know that JJJ and Fred are both town, then?

How did you come to that conclusion?

wat

[Sloonei]

insertnamehere interactions with/about metalmarsh:

Spoiler: show

How do YOU intend to forge a civilian victory?

By doing My Thing.

I will do my best to outwork every other player, because every other player is less confidently civilian than I am (in my own universe). Time constraints might prevent the same kind of effort I have given in some past games, but I will surely still work hard. I don't like to leave any stones unturned.

My work cannot be quantified, and therefore cannot be outdone.

Sold.

METALMARSH 2016

MAKE MAFIA UNQUANTIFIABLE AGAIN

Jokingly pledges support for the Marmot on Day 0, later reveals he voted to give him the map (here) while initiating his skepticism of the other map claimers. The biggest point working in favor of INH today is that his support of metalmarsh from the start of the game through the end of yesterday seems too obvious to be that of two scum teammates. It started right away (with the map vote, not that first post) and never went away. I prodded him on this at some point yesterday, asking if there was any tangible reason why INH would be so supportive of metalmarsh all game long. I briefly considered that they were town BTSC partners. We know that was not the case now. I forget how INH responded to me earlier, if at all. I suppose I'll find out soon enough.

There are several other posts where INH supports Metalmarsh in the whole map business. I'll leave them out of here for the sake of keeping it somewhat short. After that, there's some soft Marmot defense sprinkled all over his big fat Dizzy case.

Spoiler: show

One thing that I did not like, though, was his loyalty to Metalmarsh in the whole map business, which seems like it may be spreading out into the game in general. He can correct me if I'm wrong, but I do not believe INH had any serious reason to trust the Marmot on Day 0 when he voted to give him the map, but he seems to have continued to trust him with some reliance on this premise deeper into the game (and I don't just mean with regards to the map claims. I believe there was some soft Marmot defense in INH's Dizzy ISO). I'd like to hear more about that.

While I do not agree with all of his case against Dyslexicon, I also think it looks believable and I like the contribution INH has made with that case. I've never seen a scum INH, but this looks like his usual town self so far. I would, however, like to hear some expanded thoughts from him. We know where he stands on Dizzy. What about Metalmarsh? What about Jay? What about Golden? He was an early suspect; what has become of that now?

I'll be up front. I don't get the case against MM. The parts of it that I do get remind me of the case against Sig, and the one against myself, both of which I know to be BS.

I can't help but think if I hadn't shown up with my big ol' ISO, I'd be the one people were pressuring others about. If MM were here right now, responding to people, defending himself, I doubt he'd be in the lead with the votes.

There seems to be a trend of voting out "controversial" players when they aren't around to defend themselves. It took sig, and I'm worried it's gonna take MM too. That's a big reason why I wish sprityo was as active in posting the vote tallies as he was D1. I'd be very interested in the overlap between the Sig and MM voters.

It feels like the path of least resistance to me.

Jay and Golden I'm indifferent towards currently. I feel better about Jay than I do Golden, but I'm not about to scum read either of them.

First, this answers my question of how he responded to my question. My god, I even ask myself questions! I have a problem. His defense takes on a different tone in this post. It's no longer related to map votes or the sort of indirect defense that was in his Dizzy case earlier. This is direct and personal defense of metalmarsh. "If MM were here right now defending himself, I doubt he'd be in the lead." This reads almost paranoid and frantic. I still am on the side that this is too obvious to be scummate defense, but in this particular post I am catching a whiff of a player who is afraid that he's watching a teammate get taken down.

I'm assuming MM is in the lead, right?

How does this make you feel?

You're like a therapist who speaks solely in leading questions, Sloonei.

It makes me feel nervous, but maybe that's just childhood trauma rearing its ugly head once again.

Playfully dodges my question a little but also admits to nervousness (?) about the impending marmot doom.

Sorry Sloonei, that question was directed towards nutella. I didn't catch that portion of her post until you highlighted it.

Linki: I haven't been around the last 5 hours, so I missed that.

Unvote

Vote Lynch Dizzy

I don't actually want to lynch Sloonei.

YEAH WELL... uh

dude wtf

Then he yells at me for voting to lynch the bad guy. Interesting.

On one side of the coin, this is the type of defense that's too bold and too obvious to be taken as two scum partners, and INH is a player who's not afraid to take strong stances on things. On the other side, his support of metalmarsh was unwavering from Day 0 through Day 2. I never saw a substantial reason for INH to trust him besides the negation of the case which eventually sprouted up against him. Prior to that he trusted him for no discernible reason.

Marmot interactions with/about INH:

Spoiler: show

North-east because I like a little of everything.

Lynch: Scotty

His support of me in the map business looked fake. Also I appreciate those who entrusted the map to me, I will do my best to live up the appropriate standard.

I'm sorry it looked fake.

It's because it was.

I voted for INH to receive the map

Cheers, although it was ultimately in vain as I am 100% mapless.

I will say that I dislike very much the fact that three different people all claimed to possess the map. I voted for MM, so his claim at least has some legitimacy in my eyes.

Going into Day 1, 3J and Golden both get the squinty-raised-eyebrow treatment from me. I'm not willing to vote for them yet (as we have 60 GODDAMN HOURS to do so), but I'm gonna be watching their posts.

No map for me

I've never been voted to get anything like that. Maybe one day.

I wouldn't have chosen to say this in a vacuum, but since I already said I didn't get the map...

I did get the map. I was just impatient and assumed the PM had gone elsewhere.

It doesn't feel massively helpful, but it does enable me to turn the compass directions on this poll (and others) into specific locations. If we go to a location that turns out to be favourable, I might be able to help us get back there. It looks like you can't get everywhere from everywhere, though. For now, it's meaningless to me.

Thanks to those who trusted me. It genuinely is the first time I've been elected to get one of these! I assumed it had gone to Jay.

This little flippity flop especially struck me the wrong way.

I appreciate multiple players saying they got the map. It gives less legitimacy to the players who claimed to have it, but at the same time, it protects them.

Additionally, thanks for the vote.

Counter argument to INH's suspicion of the map claimers. I get no strong reads from this, I could see it being teammate interaction just as easily as not.

Likes an INH post (but was never going to vote for him anyway). The support cuts both ways, it seems. This gives me a vibe of a scum player pocketing a townie who's already established as being on their side. So decent look for INH.

Spoiler: show

INH and Quin are making me sad. Dys is the player I trust the most currently (or on about equal footing with Silver and Golden). I believe SO strongly that Dys is civ, I'd say even more so given the recent discussion -- especially their replies to Quin. I was thinking "amen" to everything Dys said in response to Quin's utterly ridiculous and nuance-lacking accusation that they haven't provided reads/reactions to the fakeslip when they so clearly have, and has generally acted very town.


I'm also disappointed in you, Sloonei. I'm glad you backed off of Scotty, since he's been hinting all game and that's part of why I believe he's probably town. But I thought you had said a couple pages back that you'd also be willing to vote for INH or Marmot, and now you don't seem to be considering that at all. I wish you would consider switching to Marmot, especially so close to the deadline when we're not even hitting the soft lynch threshold and he's our best shot.

lots of linki. Sloon can you give reasons you think MM is town?

If you could vote for anyone not named Metalmarsh89 or insertnamehere, who would you vote for?

And this. Not really a meaningful interaction, just lazily prodding nutella towards the end of the day. This might be the scummiest post in metalmarsh's ISO, but that's irrelevant now (except to say that nutella is hella town).

Yeah, I do not know. I am still inclined to say that INH's strong defense of metalmarsh all day long is too bold to be the play of baddie teammates, but I also cannot let him slip by without any skepticism. So I'll need INH to give us some updated thoughts on the game, of course, and maybe explain what it was that he saw in metalmarsh.

[Quin]

Jack is forcing the most literal interpretation of my hypothesis. I'm not liking this dialogue at all.

[Golden]

There was something else fishy with it as well, and I feel like I've now put myself in the position where I have to be open, which I didn't really want to be, but here goes...

I'm a watcher. I watched Jay. If marmot did what you guys are suggesting and swapped fred and jay, I should have gotten 'golden targeted fred' but I didn't. I wasn't showing as watching fred, despite the fact the results I got were for Fred. I got that no-one was targeting Fred.

It should be noted that last night I was showing as targeting the player I watched. So I've since had that confirmation.

It was a baffling result for me. I still haven't figured it out. But it isn't entirely explained by the marmot role, even if that is part of what happened.

[Long Con]

I am still inclined to say that INH's strong defense of metalmarsh all day long is too bold to be the play of baddie teammates, but I also cannot let him slip by without any skepticism.

Pretty much exactly how I feel - I believe I expressed a similar sentiment in my larger, coloured post. INH is a great one for a cop to check.

[Long Con]

Quin, did you say that JJJ was a townish type that people who want to target town people would choose? I don't agree with that assessment - he's gotten a share of suspicion; there's others who I think are seen as more town than him.

[Long Con]

There was something else fishy with it as well, and I feel like I've now put myself in the position where I have to be open, which I didn't really want to be, but here goes...

I'm a watcher. I watched Jay. If marmot did what you guys are suggesting and swapped fred and jay, I should have gotten 'golden targeted fred' but I didn't. I wasn't showing as watching fred, despite the fact the results I got were for Fred. I got that no-one was targeting Fred.

It should be noted that last night I was showing as targeting the player I watched. So I've since had that confirmation.

It was a baffling result for me. I still haven't figured it out. But it isn't entirely explained by the marmot role, even if that is part of what happened.

Seems like a slender distinction. Hard to figure out how a host will work out some more intricate details. So you think that MM isn't responsible for your retargeting?

[Quin]

Quin, did you say that JJJ was a townish type that people who want to target town people would choose? I don't agree with that assessment - he's gotten a share of suspicion; there's others who I think are seen as more town than him.

Not really, what I'm saying is based more on principle rather than a context-based reading, if that makes sense.

I think that roles like investigations are best suited to be used early on players like 3J. People who have some degree of lynch immunity specifically because of how big of an asset they are to town... when they're town.

[Long Con]

Quin, did you say that JJJ was a townish type that people who want to target town people would choose? I don't agree with that assessment - he's gotten a share of suspicion; there's others who I think are seen as more town than him.

Not really, what I'm saying is based more on principle rather than a context-based reading, if that makes sense.

I think that roles like investigations are best suited to be used early on players like 3J. People who have some degree of lynch immunity specifically because of how big of an asset they are to town... when they're town.

You mean big-talking, controlling-type players, I would guess. Which does make sense - gotta know if they should be followed.

[Golden]

There was something else fishy with it as well, and I feel like I've now put myself in the position where I have to be open, which I didn't really want to be, but here goes...

I'm a watcher. I watched Jay. If marmot did what you guys are suggesting and swapped fred and jay, I should have gotten 'golden targeted fred' but I didn't. I wasn't showing as watching fred, despite the fact the results I got were for Fred. I got that no-one was targeting Fred.

It should be noted that last night I was showing as targeting the player I watched. So I've since had that confirmation.

It was a baffling result for me. I still haven't figured it out. But it isn't entirely explained by the marmot role, even if that is part of what happened.

Seems like a slender distinction. Hard to figure out how a host will work out some more intricate details. So you think that MM isn't responsible for your retargeting?

I don't know who was responsible. On the face of it, if it was marmot and only marmot that was responsible, I would have thought I would see that I was targeting fred.

I might just ask sprit. Stand by.

[Golden]

"As the Busdriver, you may target two targets, actions affecting each targets are switched"

OK, I've checked with sprit, but looking at this again, I can see how I might be still seen as 'targeting jay' as it's just my action that is switched and not my target. That makes sense.

[Long Con]

"As the Busdriver, you may target two targets, actions affecting each targets are switched"

OK, I've checked with sprit, but looking at this again, I can see how I might be still seen as 'targeting jay' as it's just my action that is switched and not my target. That makes sense.

Yeah, that's what I mean about host intricacies.

[Jackofhearts2005]

There was something else fishy with it as well, and I feel like I've now put myself in the position where I have to be open, which I didn't really want to be, but here goes...

I'm a watcher. I watched Jay. If marmot did what you guys are suggesting and swapped fred and jay, I should have gotten 'golden targeted fred' but I didn't. I wasn't showing as watching fred, despite the fact the results I got were for Fred. I got that no-one was targeting Fred.

It should be noted that last night I was showing as targeting the player I watched. So I've since had that confirmation.

It was a baffling result for me. I still haven't figured it out. But it isn't entirely explained by the marmot role, even if that is part of what happened.

Seems like a slender distinction. Hard to figure out how a host will work out some more intricate details. So you think that MM isn't responsible for your retargeting?

I don't know who was responsible. On the face of it, if it was marmot and only marmot that was responsible, I would have thought I would see that I was targeting fred.

I might just ask sprit. Stand by.

If you didn't get MM, he didn't busdrive Fred with JJJ. You were misdirected by someone targeting you or JJJ was nexused.

*crumbles up rainbow list take three*

Glad I'm not time traveling anymore.