Phenon Mafia: ENDGAME - Snuffed

#2051

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Golden wrote:
Long Con wrote:
Golden wrote:There was something else fishy with it as well, and I feel like I've now put myself in the position where I have to be open, which I didn't really want to be, but here goes...

I'm a watcher. I watched Jay. If marmot did what you guys are suggesting and swapped fred and jay, I should have gotten 'golden targeted fred' but I didn't. I wasn't showing as watching fred, despite the fact the results I got were for Fred. I got that no-one was targeting Fred.

It should be noted that last night I was showing as targeting the player I watched. So I've since had that confirmation.

It was a baffling result for me. I still haven't figured it out. But it isn't entirely explained by the marmot role, even if that is part of what happened.
Seems like a slender distinction. Hard to figure out how a host will work out some more intricate details. So you think that MM isn't responsible for your retargeting?
I don't know who was responsible. On the face of it, if it was marmot and only marmot that was responsible, I would have thought I would see that I was targeting fred.

I might just ask sprit. Stand by.
If you didn't get MM, he didn't busdrive Fred with JJJ. You were misdirected by someone targeting you or JJJ was nexused.

*crumbles up rainbow list take three*

Glad I'm not time traveling anymore.

True.

#2052

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Golden wrote:
Long Con wrote:
Golden wrote:There was something else fishy with it as well, and I feel like I've now put myself in the position where I have to be open, which I didn't really want to be, but here goes...

I'm a watcher. I watched Jay. If marmot did what you guys are suggesting and swapped fred and jay, I should have gotten 'golden targeted fred' but I didn't. I wasn't showing as watching fred, despite the fact the results I got were for Fred. I got that no-one was targeting Fred.

It should be noted that last night I was showing as targeting the player I watched. So I've since had that confirmation.

It was a baffling result for me. I still haven't figured it out. But it isn't entirely explained by the marmot role, even if that is part of what happened.
Seems like a slender distinction. Hard to figure out how a host will work out some more intricate details. So you think that MM isn't responsible for your retargeting?
I don't know who was responsible. On the face of it, if it was marmot and only marmot that was responsible, I would have thought I would see that I was targeting fred.

I might just ask sprit. Stand by.
If you didn't get MM, he didn't busdrive Fred with JJJ. You were misdirected by someone targeting you or JJJ was nexused.

*crumbles up rainbow list take three*

Glad I'm not time traveling anymore.

Well done! I didn't even think of that. That makes my question to sprit moot.

#2053

Scotty wrote:I hate to bring this up because it's probably just harmless dead chat but:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Thanks for the lynch! I can relax a little more easily now.

Thanks for the game sprityo!
Reads to me as someone who probably didn't mind getting the hatchet. I wouldn't excuse anyone on MM as civ.

Meant to address this earlier.

MM is playing in the champs game too, right?

Has stated that he's busy as hell. Probably that is the reason for his relief less than anything about what happened yesterday in this game.

#2054

Marmotian/JJJian interactions:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Marmot, while you're sloshed, why don't you tell us a little bit about your mafia team?
They're a wonderful group of peop le .

I'm more scred of the otherm afia team though.

Unless I am missing something, this is the first interaction I see between them. I can see a scum Jay asking this question to his teammate in the thread very easily. The second line is a curious one though. In my initial ISO (in which I came out with a town read on Metalmarsh) this was the one quibble I had. That second part struck me as a bit of nervousness in answering the question. He felt uncomfortable talking about being bad when he earnestly is bad, so he slipped in a little joke about there being a second team. Whether he's nervous because he feels pressured by the question (which would mean town Jay) or because he simply feels a need to provide some WIFOM (which might mean scum Jay), I can't tell.

Spoiler: show

Passing reference RE: Map stuff.

Spoiler: show

They're looking mighty friendly right here. And not in the supremely obvious INH sort of way.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Nachomamma8 wrote:Why is Marmot a townread?
Because he pretended to have the map before anyone else did. I appreciate the cover.

This is to say that it is possible, under certain conditions, for me to not have a town read on Marmot.

This thought feels incomplete. Complete this thought, Jay.

Spoiler: show

Soft defense.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I would like for you guys (Marmot and Quin) to tell me the civilian motive for a fake slip that isn't trying deliberately to get lynched.

Prods him for content RE: the fake slip. Null look.

Spoiler: show

Lists him as orange on his Day 1 GTH rainbow. I am not seeing a traceable progression of thoughts from apparent town read to GTH scum read but, as always, players are allowed to change their minds. I would like to hear more about why Marmot wound up where he did on this list.

Spoiler: show

This is an interesting development. In Jay's attempt to interpret the Nacho kill, he comes up with a list of players he'd count as unlikely to pull the trigger on nacho. Metalmarsh is included in this list. I've also noted what appear to be some soft defenses of Metalmarsh earlier in the game. He also shares this PoE list earlier:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Bad Guys R In Here:

Quin
Long Con
JOH
DrWilgy
Sorsha
speedchuck
Scotty
Elohcin
DFaraday
Dyslexicon
Nachomamma

Absent from this list is metalmarsh. So we have some precedent for Jay appearing to read Metalmarsh as not scum, which generally translates to "town".

But then later we get this:

Spoiler: show

Everybody who he has no reason to read as town was also on his PoE list earlier... except for Metalmarsh, who had apparently been a town read at the time. But now he suddenly has "no reason at all" to town read him. This is an interesting development. Has anyone seen my town read on Jay? I seem to have lost it.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Golden wrote:Marmot
At the moment I see no compelling reasons to trust or suspect Marmot. I can confirm that he's in three games at once so I am willing to give him a break for being quieter. His posts give me no indication of anything.

The nullest of null reads.

This was a less encouraging investigation than I anticipated. There's also a few interesting posts coming from metalmarsh in this pairing that I'll get into in a separate post. But for now my town read on Jay is suspended until further notice.

#2055

At this rate I'm not going to finish these reads until 3 AM if I intend to do everyone. Someone should volunteer to help me out.

#2056

or ask jay how the hell he does this so quickly.

#2057

Sloonei wrote:or ask jay how the hell he does this so quickly.

Something something. Santa Claus. Something something. All in one night.

How do you guys read Quin's reaction to JJJ or Fred being on the chopping block. Fella seemed eager to get away from that theory, no?

Quin, what's your current read on those two players in light of MM not actually busdriving them.

#2058

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Sloonei wrote:or ask jay how the hell he does this so quickly.
Something something. Santa Claus. Something something. All in one night.

How do you guys read Quin's reaction to JJJ or Fred being on the chopping block. Fella seemed eager to get away from that theory, no?

Quin, what's your current read on those two players in light of MM not actually busdriving them.

I'm the one who created it. Like.

I'm GTH'ing scum on them both.

#2059

I hate to interrupt but can someone explain to me what has just been discovered? Are you saying that MM did not switch Golden's action toward JJJ to Fredwood? If not, what happened?

#2060

juliets wrote:I hate to interrupt but can someone explain to me what has just been discovered? Are you saying that MM did not switch Golden's action toward JJJ to Fredwood? If not, what happened?

It's extremely unlikely that the misdirection of Golden's role was caused by marmot, because Golden would have been told that the marmot targeted Fred if that was the case. I'll offer that it's possible that it just wouldn't show up because of the mechanics of the role, but I don't really believe in it.

#2061

Quin wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Sloonei wrote:or ask jay how the hell he does this so quickly.
Something something. Santa Claus. Something something. All in one night.

How do you guys read Quin's reaction to JJJ or Fred being on the chopping block. Fella seemed eager to get away from that theory, no?

Quin, what's your current read on those two players in light of MM not actually busdriving them.
I'm the one who created it. Like.

I'm GTH'ing scum on them both.

Lol.

Imma go play video games with my wife now. Night.

#2062

Some choice Marmot interactions with JJJ:

Spoiler: show

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Elohcin wrote:How do YOU intend to forge a civilian victory?
By doing My Thing.

I will do my best to outwork every other player, because every other player is less confidently civilian than I am (in my own universe). Time constraints might prevent the same kind of effort I have given in some past games, but I will surely still work hard. I don't like to leave any stones unturned.
My work cannot be quantified, and therefore cannot be outdone.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Marmot, while you're sloshed, why don't you tell us a little bit about your mafia team?
They're a wonderful group of peop le .
Which one is your favorite?
The one with the mustache. (that woudl be me)

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:So that's how she was lynched? I remebre having her as a top icv read when I was nightkilled, and mbeing surprised to find her come up maifa.
Not exactly. I don't think the details are relevant here though, my drunken Marmot friend.
I don't think so either. I dont' see anytihng wrong with SRohas' pstos. She looks fluffy but releveant to me.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I would like for you guys (Marmot and Quin) to tell me the civilian motive for a fake slip that isn't trying deliberately to get lynched.
I can't think of one. I play the WIFOM game all the time, but this is different. WIFOM is intended to be ambiguous. A slip is evidence of knowledge. Fake or not, she's fighting an uphill battle.

(Dizzy's a she right?)

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:How does going against the grain make a player genuine?
It doesn't always. It depends upon the person and the circumstance. Sloonei had some concerns about Golden that he wanted to voice, and he did so without concern for standing opposite the general consensus about Golden otherwise -- it's not a lynch he is likely going to be able to generate on Day 2, which means there's little room for opportunism. The more likely reality is that he really is concerned, which would be a good thing. I also don't think it's likely he was deliberately pursuing a read like this one either.
Touche

Jay asked Marmot lots of questions. This is not unusual. I am just unsure what to make of Marmot's tone in a lot of these responses. He definitely does not appear to be prodding back. I can't decide if this is timidness/buddying or two baddie teammates with some stiff interactions in the thread. I would not expect these two to be uncomfortable with false interactions together, so I guess I am leaning slightly pro-Jay in this instance, but it's something that I wanted to put into the thread anyway. Thoughts?

#2063

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Quin wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Sloonei wrote:or ask jay how the hell he does this so quickly.
Something something. Santa Claus. Something something. All in one night.

How do you guys read Quin's reaction to JJJ or Fred being on the chopping block. Fella seemed eager to get away from that theory, no?

Quin, what's your current read on those two players in light of MM not actually busdriving them.
I'm the one who created it. Like.

I'm GTH'ing scum on them both.
Lol.

Imma go play video games with my wife now. Night.

'Lol' isn't very satisfying to me.

I said at the end of my post that them both being civ is a possibility, yet before that I focused on who was more likely to be bad of the two. Why did you focus on the alternative and push it as though it was my ultimate opinion as you did?

#2064

One thing I've picked up on in this ambitious exercise: Dyslexicon is the towniest player in the game based solely on Metalmarsh's ISO.

#2065

Sloonei wrote:One thing I've picked up on in this ambitious exercise: Dyslexicon is the towniest player in the game based solely on Metalmarsh's ISO.

I disagree. I am the ultimate townie. No townie has ever towned as town as I am towning in this game.

#2066

But I also think Dys looks pretty good based on her interactions and marmot vote.

#2067

This is the only time Metalmarsh mentions Soneji. Soft support of a specific post nd vague support of other unstated posts.

Soneji mentions metalmarsh once indirectly as part of a map discussion.

I honestly forgot Soneji was playing in this game. But I am used to him disappearing for stretches and can always count on him providing plenty of juicy content when he returns. So I'll wait for that.

that was much quicker.

#2068

Thanks for taking on the workload, Sloonbeard. I understand your trepidation with my Marmot stuff. You look very town in the assessment. My read on Marmot hinged a bit on his map claim. I thought it quite plausible he had the map since I was lying in part to cover him (and the little campaign with INH on Day 0 allowed him to have at least one vote I could identify). I didn't go after him since I thought he might have the map, and I didn't give him credit either since his map claim was first. When I gave Nacho that vague "might not be a town read" comment, I had the map in mind. Of the claimants to the map, I thought Marmot was the more likely to be a mafia gambit if untrue -- just because of his personality and style.

Anyway I am a 2-shot tracker and already used both. I thought my mappiness and my JJJness might get me killed early.

Player X targeted Quin on Night 1. I'll reveal who if given a good reason. This was what I was poking Quin about before.

Player Y targeted nobody last night. I'll again witthold the name for the time being. I don't know whether it's an unused shot or a passive role, and the distinction may be best kept quiet.

#2069

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Thanks for taking on the workload, Sloonbeard. I understand your trepidation with my Marmot stuff. You look very town in the assessment. My read on Marmot hinged a bit on his map claim. I thought it quite plausible he had the map since I was lying in part to cover him (and the little campaign with INH on Day 0 allowed him to have at least one vote I could identify). I didn't go after him since I thought he might have the map, and I didn't give him credit either since his map claim was first. When I gave Nacho that vague "might not be a town read" comment, I had the map in mind. Of the claimants to the map, I thought Marmot was the more likely to be a mafia gambit if untrue -- just because of his personality and style.

Anyway I am a 2-shot tracker and already used both. I thought my mappiness and my JJJness might get me killed early.

Player X targeted Quin on Night 1. I'll reveal who if given a good reason. This was what I was poking Quin about before.

Player Y targeted nobody last night. I'll again witthold the name for the time being. I don't know whether it's an unused shot or a passive role, and the distinction may be best kept quiet.

You have absolutely no reason to share that information.

#2070

Quin wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Thanks for taking on the workload, Sloonbeard. I understand your trepidation with my Marmot stuff. You look very town in the assessment. My read on Marmot hinged a bit on his map claim. I thought it quite plausible he had the map since I was lying in part to cover him (and the little campaign with INH on Day 0 allowed him to have at least one vote I could identify). I didn't go after him since I thought he might have the map, and I didn't give him credit either since his map claim was first. When I gave Nacho that vague "might not be a town read" comment, I had the map in mind. Of the claimants to the map, I thought Marmot was the more likely to be a mafia gambit if untrue -- just because of his personality and style.

Anyway I am a 2-shot tracker and already used both. I thought my mappiness and my JJJness might get me killed early.

Player X targeted Quin on Night 1. I'll reveal who if given a good reason. This was what I was poking Quin about before.

Player Y targeted nobody last night. I'll again witthold the name for the time being. I don't know whether it's an unused shot or a passive role, and the distinction may be best kept quiet.
You have absolutely no reason to share that information.

Yeah...lol wat.

This is such a blasé role to fakeclaim. There's no accountability for a tracker unless you deliver. And there's nothing delivered here.

And what prompted this?

#2071

I was actually talking about sharing the identity of the person who targeted me, but Scotty makes a point worth pointing.

#2072

The point is so Quin can tell me not to reveal Player X, like he just did. I don't give a shit about accountability. There's my role claim, do with it what you will. I have no time for anything else.

#2073

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Thanks for taking on the workload, Sloonbeard. I understand your trepidation with my Marmot stuff. You look very town in the assessment. My read on Marmot hinged a bit on his map claim. I thought it quite plausible he had the map since I was lying in part to cover him (and the little campaign with INH on Day 0 allowed him to have at least one vote I could identify). I didn't go after him since I thought he might have the map, and I didn't give him credit either since his map claim was first. When I gave Nacho that vague "might not be a town read" comment, I had the map in mind. Of the claimants to the map, I thought Marmot was the more likely to be a mafia gambit if untrue -- just because of his personality and style.

Anyway I am a 2-shot tracker and already used both. I thought my mappiness and my JJJness might get me killed early.

Player X targeted Quin on Night 1. I'll reveal who if given a good reason. This was what I was poking Quin about before.

Player Y targeted nobody last night. I'll again witthold the name for the time being. I don't know whether it's an unused shot or a passive role, and the distinction may be best kept quiet.

So what changed between your PoE list and your "no reason to town read" list?

#2074

Quin, are you aware of being targeted night 1?

#2075

Sorry, I think it's clear you are... I didn't get the linki of the last four or so posts.

#2076

Long Con's interactions with/about Metalmarsh are surprisingly scarce. After the obligatory map chatter, I just see three real instances where Long Con acknowledges metalmarsh. There's this question & answer:

Long Con wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Long Con wrote:Dyslexicon: Is it over? Your fakeslip plan? Should we keep discussing it, or drop it and move on?
What else did you want to talk about?
I wanted to see if, with a little prompting, Dyslexicon would step forward with some results... which is what I would expect to see from a plan like this.

I get nothing from this. Easy prodding question, says nothing about LC's alignment or association with marmot.

Then there's this big list of GTH-style reads where sig and metalmarsh are Long Con's only two bad reads (the list of players was taken from a JoH post):

Long Con wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:I should probably start asking questions.

Silver/Quin/Fred/LC, gtth read someone in my light green to orange area, would you?

I need more evaluation from the players I've played with the most so I can evaluate your evaluations.
LIGHT GREEN
Quin - Slight Civ... the only ping I have had was his Soneji accusation of "shutting down discussion", which isn't accurate in my interpretation
Fred - Civ... just looked back over his posts, and they're pretty genuine
Golden - Civ... same as Quin, I think I'm gettting to know both their games pretty well by now.
YELLOW
Marmot - Bad... feels like he's going through the motions
LC - Civ... I saw his role card
Sig - Bad... not much content yet, but his Golden suspicion feels contrived.
ORANGE
Sorsha - I think she forgot she's playing. Null. I also don't see the "give the map to a female" thing as suspect, despite JJJ's pushing.
Nacho - Civ... Genuine feel
Soneji - Civ... good opinions, many match my own

I think this is a decent look in general for Long Con. As I understand it, Jackofhearts was just looking for singular reads on any of a range of players he'd listed, and Long Con appears to have offered thoughts on all of them. I like that.

Then he casts a vote for him, following the lead of nutella, though it appears to have only be intended as temporary:

Long Con wrote:Golden actually left me in charge of trusting your gut, nutella. I'll place a vote for him until he gets back.

Vote Lynch Metalmarsh89

I dunno. Scarce, but the posts themselves look alright. Am I missing something? I feel like there should be more here.

I'm skipping people with tons of posts because I want to cover more ground tonight. If anyone would like to take a look at people like Quin and Jackofhearts, please do.
I'll also be skipping Dyslexicon and nutella because I think they're town based on what I've seen so far.

#2077

Long Con wrote:Quin, are you aware of being targeted night 1?

No. I am alive and all of my five limbs are securely attached to my abdomen. I don't think it's necessary for him to info dump.

#2078

Golden & metalmarsh:
[Map stuff]

Spoiler: show

Conversation about stuff that's not entirely relevant to this game. Golden appears confused at first. At first glance this does not look like two teammates interacting in the thread. Just appears conversational and out of the blue, and Golden's little moment of confusion at first seems earnest and, I don't know why, but that makes me feel good about him in this context. That said, this is not something I'd build a read around. Just a slight mark in Golden's favor.

Spoiler: show

Day 1 "fine" read on the marmot. Kinda null. His opinion changed somewhere down the line, though. Here's Day 2 Golden:

Spoiler: show

Golden wrote:I have to have a vote that can work as my final vote done in the next eight hours, because there's no guarantee I'll be able to get back (and an absolute guarantee I won't be able to be current with the thread) for at least the rest of the phase after that point.

So, to this end, while I do a bit more of a detailed reads list, I'd really like as many people as possible to give me gth reads or, preferably, a short precis of why they think each of the following people is a good or not good choice for a vote. As things stand right now, these are the people I have any level of active suspicion on.

Jay
Eloh
Marmot
inh

(No, I'm not looking to go with 'most popular vote', but I am already having trouble keeping up with everything due to my limited time, and this will help me make sure I have in the open points in favour and against these choices).

Also @Jay - I saw you said we don't know wilgy is dead, but it looks like he is dead from OP. In any event, because of the way polling works during the day, sprit I think it's worth clarifying whether or not someone who appears dead can actually be alive, and voteable. I'd assume not.

Golden wrote:quin - I've liked Quin since the moment he noticed Dizzy's slip and I think he has done more besides which looks genuinely hunty.
Jack - I get vibes very similar to Unfortunate Events, where although he was technically indy he leaned town all game
nutella - Oozes town

sloonei - I've liked his early stuff. He's not afraid to provide reads even when he's just starting the thread, and I like this a lot. It also doesn't hurt that I liked Sorsha's early responses to Jay
dizzy - his reaction to how people took his fakeslip, and subsequent hunting, both came across as townie to me.

A big pile of yellow here

soneji - The soneji/silver argument kind of passed me by, and I feel like I need to read it back. I've had no real interaction with soneji this game either, and I can't remember his viewpoint on anything.
Silver - Same goes for silver as soneji, although in this case I think it's the number of new people that I'm finding challenging. Part of it is that I know I need to read that early discussion back.
LC - I hated his early dizzy stuff, it's objectively scummy. I also feel like it's par for the course LC, who often looks terrible for stuff like this then comes back town. It usually takes me two or three cycles to get a firm read on LC, but I feel like he's more likely on the upswing than the downswing.
speedchuck - Of all the newbies, speedchuck is the closest to going down the list. His responses to why I pinged him were good on the first read, but when I realised that he had already read my full explanation for why I didn't vote when he raised it (I didn't want to push a bandwagon vote to potential hammer range, especially before doing my own research), it bothers me a bit. I don't really know why speedchuck would see it as the civilian thing to do to rush in on a vote even after knowing my explanation. But, I can't quite tell to what extent this is culture. (I also appreciate his Star Wars reference)
scotty - He's been busy and I have no read. However, I'd rather not vote scotty today (for reasons - not infodumpy reasons though).
DF - How do you solve a problem like DF
fred - fred's banter feels fred, based on interactions in other places like signups and elimination game. It's disarmingly charming, but he doesn't get a town read for being himself.
straw - how to take his dizzy stuff. A civilian pushing a boulder up a metal ramp in the rain, or a baddie looking busy to an end he knew was unlikely to come back to bite? I haven't played with Strawhenge in a while, but I perceive him differently in this game. I usually get a strong town vibe from him, this time I don't yet. I'm giving it time.

inh
jay - I feel like I see a lot of evidence of Jay half-assing his viewpoints and not thinking them through or balancing them, which is what I normally see from him. A point in his favour is that I find his disappointment at Nacho's death genuine
Eloh - It's not the vote, it's the fact that she had to read enough of the thread to know dizzy only had a one vote lead over sig (as at sprit's most recent tally... it was actually tied at the time she voted), and yet she described it as 'following the people'. Town Eloh has trouble keeping up, but my memory is that she also tends to be forthright about it and asks for help/brief catch up posts from others, which was absent here.
marmot - he's been scarce across the board (not just in this game) but I don't understand much of his mindset in this game yet. Reminds me a little of Dune.

Metalmarsh is on his short list of suspects and at the very bottom of his rainbow. The reasons stated here are vague, but I don't hate it. That's mostly all there is until today. This makes me feel slightly better about Golden, even if it's a bit scarce. I still owe him a proper investigation.

I am getting very tired. It's been a long day and I think I'm running out of steam.

#2079

Quin wrote:
Long Con wrote:Quin, are you aware of being targeted night 1?
No. I am alive and all of my five limbs are securely attached to my abdomen. I don't think it's necessary for him to info dump.

So, if he's telling the truth, then you were targeted by some passive action.

#2080

speedchuck:

Spoiler: show

Early scum read. I like this. I'll be a little nervous and say it's possible a new player to our community wanted to take a bold stance and come out bussing one of their teammates Day 1, but that's a tinfoil theory.

Spoiler: show

I believe he is being critical of metalmarsh's vote for Dyslexicon here, as part of a larger post. I like this whole post and the discussion it is a part of from speedchuck. He puts some good thoughts into the thread, stands up for what he believes in (Dyslexicon's slip was intentional), and gets some reads out of it. Big positive marks for speedchuck here.

A big list of common suspects which includes a marmot. Nothing to see here.

Speedchuck was one of the first people to engage with me when I entered the thread and started hurling questions at everything. I liked his tone from the start. He was relaxed and open and his accounts of things appear to have been as objective as a person is able to be. He names metalmarsh as one of his top suspects (along with Scotty) in this post and also offers a comment on him regarding the Dyslexicon slip. His suspicion is looking consistent and genuine to me at this point.

speedchuck wrote:http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 78#p335178

This post is interesting because it contradicts itself? It, at the beginning of the post, says that logic points to Dizzy doing an on-purpose fakeslip.
Then says later in the thread that it is an accident.
Then I think they ended the day on Dizzy, despite saying they felt good about Diz in the same post.

Maybe Marmot just didn't want to be on SIG?

I don't know. Most of what bothers me about marmot's posts probably have to do with their playstyle/his low activity thanks to other games. Nothing particularly useful, I think. Would lynch scotty over marmot. Unless contradicting themselves in order to seem agreeable and unsure is a Meta-Marmot-Metal-Marsh-Mafia-Move.

More of the same. I'm gonna go ahead and slap a town read on speedchuck now, and also note that I believe Scotty criticized him earlier for never following through on his promise to ISO metalmarsh, to which I say... this post exists, Scotty.

speedchuck is town or your money back.

#2081

Sloonei wrote:I dunno. Scarce, but the posts themselves look alright. Am I missing something? I feel like there should be more here.

I think the MM-Long Con connections are more in MM's posts? If that's what you're referring to, "missing something". Ask JJJ and nutella, they are the ones with the suspicion.

As for scarcity... I think three connections is probably more than I have with most players. I'm not the most prolific poster so far.

#2082

The following is a complete compilation of all interactions between Metalmarsh and Scotty in the game of Phenom Mafia:

Spoiler: show

So um.
unvote jackofhearts, I think? Am I still voting for him?

vote Scotty

#2083

Sloonei wrote:So what changed between your PoE list and your "no reason to town read" list?

Time passed. In the immediate aftermath of the map claims I gave Marmot a bit of a berth, and then as his posts went nowhere from that point I progressively cared less about that. Marmot was in my PoE originally anyway, I deliberately didn't list him because of said map. That's what I was trying to nudge to Nacho when he asked me.

Anyway, that one point where I gave the "nullest of null" reads on Marmot should clue y'all in that I am not his teammate. I am literally the guy who analyzes the hell out of dead scum interactions in every game I play, and that means I am very well-versed in what sells and what does not. I don't give you a useless waffle on my teammate because that does nothing to benefit me or my team -- it only leaves me open to answering questions like this later. I know better. Take it or leave it I guess.

I don't follow Jack at all in the bus driver discussion. I don't see why there's any reason to assume anything about either Fred's or my alignment. The most basic value of a re-directing role is that it prevents the civilians from handling the night phase the way they want to -- it promotes a chaotic information environment. There are a ton of different theories one could apply to Marmot's purported actions, assuming he is responsible for the target discrepancy Golden has reported, that work out for three of the four possible alignment arrangements between Fredwood and I. Town-Town, Mafia-Town, and Town-Mafia. The only one that I'd struggle to see a scenario for is Mafia-Mafia, not counting my own inherent knowledge of my alignment. Because I am me, I am generally a likely target for whatever. Doctors love to protect me, jailers love to jail me, cops love to ID me, watchers love to watch me, etc. Shit, in recent memory even vigilantes love to shoot me. Bus driving me with anyone is by default a near-sure means of making certain the role has value that night, because someone's JJJ target will get screwed up.

Even if you're discussing the matter of a cop, the idea still holds in a Town-Town scenario. The scum would stand to lose a lot if I am confirmed town by a cop, because I am a much more potent threat when I am not hindered by accusations (see: Turf Wars, Mad Max, and the latter half of ROTTK). By swapping me with a different townie a less threatening ID is assured. And that's only for a cop, which is already a speculative thing.

At the end of the day we're still talking about Marmot, perhaps the player on this roster least inclined toward actual strategy. He does whatever he wants on a whim.

#2084

Sloonei wrote:Assignment #2 is complete.

Remember when I said this?:
Sloonei wrote:A note: When I've caught Scotty as scum before, it's been for contradictions and inconsistencies in his behavior.
Well...

I'll reiterate an initial part of my beef with Scotty because I don't know if he's given it a proper response yet:
Scotty wrote:I see I missed a lot in being gone from the thread. I'm real busy y'all, Donny participation is highly dragging on all fronts going forward.

I'm caught up, and realize that this is why I prefer to vote no-shows on day 1. I'm not sure who's bad. I thought Nutella was playing the fences early on with her first few posts, but I like her recent posts. The golden thing seems like a pretty good place to continue down I guess.

Not liking Wilgy's entrance. Any time he plays the WIFOM card my eyebrow twitches. Both he and MM.

I see the slip as what it was: a slip. Going to continue to defend me voting Dys. Could be difference in culture, but I don't like the bait tactics and choose to believe it were really that easy to bait a response out of someone with an "obvious" fakeslip, it's just as easy to scumslip.
If Scotty earnestly believes that Dyslexicon slipped on Day 1, why is he also lamenting the problem that he can never tell who's bad on Day 1? If that was a slip, isn't it plain as day that Dyslexicon is bad?

What do you have to say to this, Scotty? I'm interested in hearing what your thought process was when you made this post, if that's something your memory even has access to. You've dismissed it, I think, but not in a way that actually addresses it, unless I'm misremembering things.

#2085

My brain is fried and any more analysis I provide will be half-assed, so I'm calling it a night on that front. I'll still be around, but I'm done digging through posts now. I owe Scotty another thorough ISO in the morning, but I've also got a long day of work tomorrow. I won't have a ton of time to do things here.

#2086

Sloonei wrote:The following is a complete compilation of all interactions between Metalmarsh and Scotty in the game of Phenom Mafia:
Spoiler: show
So um.
unvote jackofhearts, I think? Am I still voting for him?

vote Scotty

#2087

I've done more cramming since I joined this game than I did in 5 years of college.

#2088

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Sloonei wrote:So what changed between your PoE list and your "no reason to town read" list?
Time passed. In the immediate aftermath of the map claims I gave Marmot a bit of a berth, and then as his posts went nowhere from that point I progressively cared less about that. Marmot was in my PoE originally anyway, I deliberately didn't list him because of said map. That's what I was trying to nudge to Nacho when he asked me.

Anyway, that one point where I gave the "nullest of null" reads on Marmot should clue y'all in that I am not his teammate. I am literally the guy who analyzes the hell out of dead scum interactions in every game I play, and that means I am very well-versed in what sells and what does not. I don't give you a useless waffle on my teammate because that does nothing to benefit me or my team -- it only leaves me open to answering questions like this later. I know better. Take it or leave it I guess.

I don't follow Jack at all in the bus driver discussion. I don't see why there's any reason to assume anything about either Fred's or my alignment. The most basic value of a re-directing role is that it prevents the civilians from handling the night phase the way they want to -- it promotes a chaotic information environment. There are a ton of different theories one could apply to Marmot's purported actions, assuming he is responsible for the target discrepancy Golden has reported, that work out for three of the four possible alignment arrangements between Fredwood and I. Town-Town, Mafia-Town, and Town-Mafia. The only one that I'd struggle to see a scenario for is Mafia-Mafia, not counting my own inherent knowledge of my alignment. Because I am me, I am generally a likely target for whatever. Doctors love to protect me, jailers love to jail me, cops love to ID me, watchers love to watch me, etc. Shit, in recent memory even vigilantes love to shoot me. Bus driving me with anyone is by default a near-sure means of making certain the role has value that night, because someone's JJJ target will get screwed up.

Even if you're discussing the matter of a cop, the idea still holds in a Town-Town scenario. The scum would stand to lose a lot if I am confirmed town by a cop, because I am a much more potent threat when I am not hindered by accusations (see: Turf Wars, Mad Max, and the latter half of ROTTK). By swapping me with a different townie a less threatening ID is assured. And that's only for a cop, which is already a speculative thing.

At the end of the day we're still talking about Marmot, perhaps the player on this roster least inclined toward actual strategy. He does whatever he wants on a whim.

meh

#2089

I want to shift the focus of all the discussion onto Scotty. Everyone talk about Scotty. I command it.

#2090

These were the two Marmot things about Long Con that I took note of during my quick skim:

Spoiler: show

Right now I am more inclined to shrug. It's not material that screams teammates; it just has that chummy feel that sometimes seems to happen early, particularly on Marmot scum teams. The second post is a little facilitator that might provide LC with an avenue to defend himself, something I know scummers hate to lack.

I wouldn't lynch LC for this stuff. I was more hoping someone else could look deeper into the interaction and see what comes up.

#2091

I cannot wait for Sloonei to get to me, because I'm pretty sure all I've talked about with marmot is fluff.

#2092

Quin wrote:meh

Remember that time I POE'd the civilians down to the Dom/Quin dichotomy that defined the double-LyLo?

Remember when you killed me before I could finish you off?

You played a great game though obviously. This post might be OT but whatever.

#2093

Quin wrote:I cannot wait for Sloonei to get to me, because I'm pretty sure all I've talked about with marmot is fluff.

I clicked on your ISO, did one quick Ctrl + F, and left.

#2094

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:meh
Remember that time I POE'd the civilians down to the Dom/Quin dichotomy that defined the double-LyLo?

Remember when you killed me before I could finish you off?

You played a great game though obviously. This post might be OT but whatever.

I'm pretty sure I killed you because you were the doctor. Not 100 percent sure what my reason was. Won't deny getting rid of you just for the sake of it was part of it, though.

#2095

Sloonei wrote:
Quin wrote:I cannot wait for Sloonei to get to me, because I'm pretty sure all I've talked about with marmot is fluff.
I clicked on your ISO, did one quick Ctrl + F, and left.

Appropriate.

#2096

Sloonei wrote:I want to shift the focus of all the discussion onto Scotty. Everyone talk about Scotty. I command it.

I have no reason to town read him. I don't know that a blank interactive analysis necessarily means he's evil since I do see those often with civilians when I take on the same workload.

But there's nothing in his posts that I have seen that say to me "oh, there's civilian Scotty". I'd lynch him. He actually just gave me shit for my tracker claim not being accountable when I believe he soft claimed exactly something very early in the game. I don't know what it was. Did that ever become a hard claim? I haven't read everything.

#2097

I still have a residual town read on LoRab every time I see her thanks to Mad Max. I could see her walking down the street and I'd let everyone around me know that she's definitely town.

#2098

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Sloonei wrote:I want to shift the focus of all the discussion onto Scotty. Everyone talk about Scotty. I command it.
I have no reason to town read him. I don't know that a blank interactive analysis necessarily means he's evil since I do see those often with civilians when I take on the same workload.

But there's nothing in his posts that I have seen that say to me "oh, there's civilian Scotty". I'd lynch him. He actually just gave me shit for my tracker claim not being accountable when I believe he soft claimed exactly something very early in the game. I don't know what it was. Did that ever become a hard claim? I haven't read everything.

Some of us threatened him with votes yesterday and he said he could verify his something claim in the night if we'd just leave him alive, and then when the thread opened back up on Day 3 he said "aw phooey, i was blocked."

#2099

I feel alright about Scotty. I put him in my GTH civ list because of my suspicion of Sloonei.

I have nothing else to say about him.

#2100

Sloonei is my top town read short of nutella.

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