Phenon Mafia: ENDGAME - Snuffed

#2751

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
juliets wrote:**Because he seems to have disappeared but unlike Elo hasn't asked for replacement. I need to read through his posts.
Thanks for the reads, juliets. I think you forgot Elohcin though; where'd she be situated on the ol' rainbow?

Quin too.

#2752

I don't even know what a Guide or an Unculter are. Not that it matters

#2753

juliets wrote:JJJ
Sloonei
Dyslexicon
Golden
speedchuck*

Scotty
Long Con
Fredwood
Soneji

Strawhenge**
Jack of Hearts***

*If there was a color that was a lighter green thats where I would rate speedchuck. I read through his posts and like what he was saying about the Dyslexicon suspicions while they were going on and otherwise he seemed to be trying to analyze and give his view on things. I agree with the school of thought the he could have just not voted for MM and that been seen as ok. This is really a gut read, I don't know him at all.
**Because he seems to have disappeared but unlike Elo hasn't asked for replacement. I need to read through his posts.
**Still at the bottom but I am re-evaluating based on his Silver Lantern claim.

If someone moves into solid red I will place a vote for them.

I like this post.

I don't like being low on the list but if I was Juliets and a vanilla townie, I could see this being a logical rainbow. This is in contrast to Quin and LC, who have illogical rainbows that they shouldn't believe are true if they are town.

#2754

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Off the top of my head, I can think of five town roles that I would have targeted roughly the same players with on the same nights.
Do you think there'd be any harm in stating those five?
Not at all.

Doctor
Bodyguard
Nexus
Guide
Unculter

Could you tell me what a Nexus, Guide and Unculter are?

#2755

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Guide
Unculter

I am unfamiliar with these two.

#2756

speedchuck wrote:I don't even know what a Guide or an Unculter are. Not that it matters

Guide prevents their target from being blocked or misdirected. May also prevent other negative effects like silencing.

An unculter turns cult back into their previous alignments generally reserved for games where cultists don't have BTSC or are getting anonymous instructions from the cult leader through the mod.

#2757

Nexus does a thing to whoever targets their target.

So if I'm a roleblock nexus and I target Quin, anyone else targeting Quin is roleblocked.

There could also be misdirection nexuses. Scum occasionally has silencing nexuses.

#2758

Luckily there is no cult.

#2759

I have time for one Marmot interactive analysis. Gimme a name.

#2760

speedchuck wrote:Luckily there is no cult.

Exactly what I'd expect a cult leader to say.

#2761

My ears are burning.

#2762

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
speedchuck wrote:Luckily there is no cult.
Exactly what I'd expect a cult leader to say.

#2763

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I have time for one Marmot interactive analysis. Gimme a name.

No I don't. I'll still take a name though.

Be back later.

#2764

Really dislike the mention of a cult, even as possible power. It's bad vibes man.

Typical Mafia, getting the town riled up about a cult, guess we should be glad you don't have a ghostwrite ability.

#2765

Doesn't it say in the OP that there's no cult-mechanics?

Anyway. I'm awake.
Rip, Nut, there goes my sanity.

Will be on later tonight.

#2766

Where is Straw and Soneji? Can we kill one of them?

#2767

I'm not trying to scare people into thinking there is a cult.

I was simply making the point that not every role that targets top townies is a doctor.

#2768

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:I'm not trying to scare people into thinking there is a cult.

I was simply making the point that not every role that targets top townies is a doctor.

They aren't???

I've been living on a lie!

#2769

OP specifically says there are no cults in this game

#2770

sprityo wrote:OP specifically says there are no cults in this game

That doesn't mean we can't tinfoil for days!

#2771

The problem with mods just telling you things is you can't really trust mods.

#2772

Dang, Fred got out of here without answering my question.

Fred, you probably didn't see this because it was in a longer post but here's my question:

Do you think it's believable that Jack would have not killed Silver Lantern, and argued with teammates not to kill him, because of his community outlook on Lantern's participation? I'm asking you because from what I gather you know Jack the best and come from the same community.

#2773

Dyslexicon wrote:Where is Straw and Soneji? Can we kill one of them?

Which would you prefer to kill and why?

#2774

So:

JOH isn't claiming or not claiming doctor. He could be soft claiming of the other non-cult roles he listed. He targeted Quin N1. Quin didn't experience any hindrances to his knowledge. There are some mafia-oriented roles suitable to Jack here:

Roleblocker (a doctor Quin protecting someone other than the kill target wouldn't know about being blocked unless sprityo explicitly tells him).

Role cop (identifies Quin's role)

Redirecting role (odd next to Marmot but technically possible)

Probably other possibilities I can't recall right now on my phone

JOH: is there anything in your posts or targets that you think could discount these possibilities?

#2775

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:So:

JOH isn't claiming or not claiming doctor. He could be soft claiming of the other non-cult roles he listed. He targeted Quin N1. Quin didn't experience any hindrances to his knowledge. There are some mafia-oriented roles suitable to Jack here:

Roleblocker (a doctor Quin protecting someone other than the kill target wouldn't know about being blocked unless sprityo explicitly tells him).

Role cop (identifies Quin's role)

Redirecting role (odd next to Marmot but technically possible)

Probably other possibilities I can't recall right now on my phone

JOH: is there anything in your posts or targets that you think could discount these possibilities?

Probably wouldn't have bothered redirecting or roleblocking you but I can't prove I targeted you last night.

If I blocked Nut night 2, would he have been able to use a day power?

#2776

I would not expect a night block to hinder a day action.

I do not believe I was blocked, and I doubt you'd role cop me after I claimed. So that's decent, though it relies upon believing your claim of targeting me. I don't know that I have a reason to believe that.

#2777

juliets wrote:Dang, Fred got out of here without answering my question.

Fred, you probably didn't see this because it was in a longer post but here's my question:

Do you think it's believable that Jack would have not killed Silver Lantern, and argued with teammates not to kill him, because of his community outlook on Lantern's participation? I'm asking you because from what I gather you know Jack the best and come from the same community.

Don't know, Silver being the vig is sticky. I would agree that he would have argued against killing Silver in a normal situation. With him saying he was vig I think that argument gets shot down by the other mafia.

So, I'm not saying he did or didn't argue that Silver shouldn't be killed, but that it wouldn't have mattered because he was overridden or didn't have a better alternative. I certainly don't view Silver's death as proof of his innocence.

#2778

What Jack's claimed targets confirm is that he operates each night phase (as opposed to Quin's odd nights claim).

I don't think a bodyguard role fits well with a doctor since it's just a weaker version of the same. A guide could fit if there's any meta basis for that role to exist in a sprityo game. I have heard of a nexus, though Jack's description isn't the role I have seen exactly. That could fit; it's a very nuanced role concept though.

#2779

I am currently running a 10 person game on HCRealms with mostly Syndicate rules. Silver is really getting into it on Day One. Far and away his most active Day One ever on the site and he's encouraged similar upping of Day One performance from the other players. Makes me super happy.

#2780

Fredwood wrote:
juliets wrote:Dang, Fred got out of here without answering my question.

Fred, you probably didn't see this because it was in a longer post but here's my question:

Do you think it's believable that Jack would have not killed Silver Lantern, and argued with teammates not to kill him, because of his community outlook on Lantern's participation? I'm asking you because from what I gather you know Jack the best and come from the same community.
Don't know, Silver being the vig is sticky. I would agree that he would have argued against killing Silver in a normal situation. With him saying he was vig I think that argument gets shot down by the other mafia.

So, I'm not saying he did or didn't argue that Silver shouldn't be killed, but that it wouldn't have mattered because he was overridden or didn't have a better alternative. I certainly don't view Silver's death as proof of his innocence.

Yeah I wasn't focused on the rest of the team when I started thinking about this last night. Thanks.

Do you still see Scotty and Soneji (and maybe Quin, I wasn't sure if your list was in order or not) above Jack on your list of people you think are bad?

linki

#2781

Would love someone besides JJJ and I to weigh in on Marmot's evaluation of Eloh's meta.

I've read it as a slight point against her. JJJ read it as a null thing.

#2782

Would also love any evaluations of my previously stated group, especially Sonjei and Straw.

#2783

GUYS I'M STILL IN THIS GAME I'M SORRY FOR LURKING I SERIOUSLY DID NOT KNOW I WOULD BE THIS BUSY PLEASE FORGIVE MEEEEEEEEEE

I'm still in the process of catching up right now, but something caught my eye yesterday and I wanted to bring it up. It's this. This quote that I'm going to control-vee right below this paragraph. You'll see it. Hold on.

Quin wrote:I don't think LC is a great choice. I don't know what anyone's beef with him is.

There we go. Okay, so, I'm befuddled as to Quin's motivation for this post. This was prompted by Dyslexicon voting for Long Con, but here's the thing. The kicker. At that time (if the subsequent votals were accurate), Dyslexicon was the only person who voted for Long Con. And the wording there is strange. 'I don't know what anyone's beef with him is.' That reads like a response someone would make to a bandwagon, not a single late-in-the-day post.

Plus, Quin should know what at least my beef with him is. I concede that this would require people to have actually read my ISO of LC, which, ha.

Anyway, weird thing. Wanted to point that out. See what you all thought of that. Pinged me as a possible DON'T SUSPECT HIM, DON'T YOU DARE sorta fing.

#2784

Dyslexicon wrote:Where is Straw and Soneji? Can we kill one of them?

Uh, rude!

#2785

juliets wrote:
Fredwood wrote:
juliets wrote:Dang, Fred got out of here without answering my question.

Fred, you probably didn't see this because it was in a longer post but here's my question:

Do you think it's believable that Jack would have not killed Silver Lantern, and argued with teammates not to kill him, because of his community outlook on Lantern's participation? I'm asking you because from what I gather you know Jack the best and come from the same community.
Don't know, Silver being the vig is sticky. I would agree that he would have argued against killing Silver in a normal situation. With him saying he was vig I think that argument gets shot down by the other mafia.

So, I'm not saying he did or didn't argue that Silver shouldn't be killed, but that it wouldn't have mattered because he was overridden or didn't have a better alternative. I certainly don't view Silver's death as proof of his innocence.
Yeah I wasn't focused on the rest of the team when I started thinking about this last night. Thanks.

Do you still see Scotty and Soneji (and maybe Quin, I wasn't sure if your list was in order or not) above Jack on your list of people you think are bad?

linki

Yes...

Quin was about equal at the beginning of today as Jack, the back and forth today means they aren't w/w, just not sure that it doesn't mean T/T. Jack's behavior is familiar, but he has moved ahead of Quin in suspicion for the time being. Still not in my top suspects.

#2786

Would rather kill Soneji than Strawhenge at the moment. Gut feeling. Probably need to find out why that is.

#2787

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:I am currently running a 10 person game on HCRealms with mostly Syndicate rules. Silver is really getting into it on Day One. Far and away his most active Day One ever on the site and he's encouraged similar upping of Day One performance from the other players. Makes me super happy.

I have crusaded all over the Internet trying to show people the value of Day 1. I love to see the integration of site styles too.

#2788

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:I just did. I'm not lying.
Cool, I dig.

I didn't track you.

I just got fucking PTSD.

linki: Man, lurker-lynching this late in the game just...that just tastes foul.

#2789

Strawhenge wrote:I just got fucking PTSD.

Christ's ass.

Strawhenge, would you say you're decently well caught up on the action or no?

#2790

Strawhenge wrote: linki: Man, lurker-lynching this late in the game just...that just tastes foul.

Who would you like to lynch that hasn't been lurking?

#2791

Jay: Mostly, end of pg. 66.

speedchuck: as of the end of pg. 66, Quin's not looking great.

#2792

And I still don't trust LC, but I haven't seen much new info from him.

#2793

I don't believe Long Con ever addressed Strawhenge's review. I called for this once already.

Hey LC:

#2794

Strawhenge, when you're caught up as much as you care to be, it'd be really super neat to see your GTH reads on the living players.

#2795

Putting all the final tallies in one place for ease of reference.

Day 1

Spoiler: show

Day 2

Spoiler: show

Day 3

Spoiler: show

#2796

JJJ analyzes the interaction dynamic of Metalmarsh89 and Strawhenge on the 22nd of February, 2017

Marmot stuff

Spoiler: show

Marmot played into the inside joke with Strawhenge (stemming from Straw's intense but misguided suspicion of Marmot in Talking Heads Mafia) quite a bit. I think this is pretty null, because Marmot is just capitalizing on an opportunity to place an easy and silly vote that will be understood by a few regulars here. It doesn't have much value as a mafia-mafia distancing effort because nobody takes it seriously anyway. This tells me little about Strawhenge.

Strawhenge stuff

Spoiler: show

Strawhenge himself didn't really take Marmot's votes seriously either. I think the middle post in this spoiler is a decent look, because I am inclined to think that if these two wanted to distance from one another then this isn't the kind of super chumminess they'd elect to utilize. It's a minor point.

Strawhenge missed the Day 2 vote, so he neither contributed to nor opposed the Marmot lynch.

~~~

I don't believe Sloonei covered this interaction.

Conclusion

This doesn't say much to me either way about Strawhenge. I had one positive comment to make but it also felt like reaching. Strawhenge will have to earn a stronger town read by other means.

#2797

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Would love someone besides JJJ and I to weigh in on Marmot's evaluation of Eloh's meta.

I've read it as a slight point against her. JJJ read it as a null thing.

I read it null. I looked at two of Elo's games over the night period, Unfortunate Events and Transistor and it seemed like she posted a good amount. My impression of her without looking at more games is the same as what MM said, i.e., that she is more involved when bad. She also voted herself which didn't strike me as something she would do as bad. The other side of that is the post JJJ brought up that was almost exactly like her vote for Dys. All in all, the reason she ends up a "don't know yet" on my read list is I think her rl situation last week trumps any conventional wisdom I might be using to make a read.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Would also love any evaluations of my previously stated group, especially Sonjei and Straw.

I have proven to be a bad reader of Soneji, having just voted to lynch him in GOC for not providing reads. That said, I'm not wild about the fact that he left his vote on Fred when we were trying to decide the INH v. JOH lynch. Strawhenge is here now so maybe I can get a better picture of him/her(?).

Strawhenge wrote:Jay: Mostly, end of pg. 66.

speedchuck: as of the end of pg. 66, Quin's not looking great.

Just fyi, we are probably not all on the same page number. I'm set to 100 ppp for example (makes multi-quoting easier) so I only have 28 pages total for this game.

#2798

GTH reads as per Jay's request. Though these are GTHs, I'll stress that while I have only just caught up, I've yet to do thorough reads on anybody. Hopefully I'll have time to do that.

JayJayJay (confirmed town)
ThatchedEarthwork (top bloke; good egg)

Sloon Unit Zappa (aside from good scum hunting, voted to lynch marmot when he could have just abstained and had a no-lynch)
VelocityCharles (good scum hunting)
MultipleCapulets (also good scum hunting)

PlayingCard
Fredwood

GoldenCaulfield
JamesDoohan
DizzyGillexicon (in this tier because there is some good scum hunting, but the vvlll-esque devil-may-care behavior has shown some mildly scummy things, like being super thirsty to lynch lurkers. That may be a Mafia-cultural difference, though.)
Eloh/their possible replacement?
Soneji

Dr. Quin, Medicine Woman
OohLongConson

Nobody in solid red, because my scummiest reads have a sprinkling of good-looking posts. Again, I'll need more time to thoroughly go through folks' posts to generate some solid reads.

#2799

Jay, re: your look at my interactions with Marmot, that's a fair assessment. The Talking Heads game played heavily into how I interacted with Marmot this game, because I was so cot-durned certain he was scum that time, and was wrong. Since he behaved much in the same way this time, I backed off and read his posts as fluff. Also, if he were alive right now I'd still have some trepidation in posting about him because he could just say, 'Talking Heads,' and I would be like, 'Oh you're right you're probably fine I'll just go scream at someone else now.'

Not a good stance to take, but I am a frail human.

#2800

JJJ analyzes the interaction dynamic of Metalmarsh89 and Elohcin on the 22nd of February, 2017 (is this annoying yet? )

Marmot stuff

Spoiler: show

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:@Marmot - Do you still think it was a legit slip? In which case, you should be voting me I guess? That theory is pretty much totally out of the question and I would've expected you to gain info about that also without looking at the other game. It's also not a matter of reading an entire game, it's one post in that game.

The other thing, alrlight *shrug*
Do you have more reads in this game? I know you're busy, but it would be very helpful to know where your head is at.
I dislike DrWilgy because he was a relative inactive Day 1.

I have no read on Elohcin, because there's just no content to judge. I will add a meta caveat, she tends to get more invested in a game when she is mafia. The most invested I've ever seen her was in Series of Unfortunate Events, in which we were mafia teammates.

From the more active participants, I like Golden. I also like Fredwood. I like your posts except for that one post. But I'm going to choose to read you as civilian for now. Nutella I also like.

I don't have much of an impression on the other players.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Add jackofhearts to the list of suspicions.

I don't like this post. I don't see how he can conclude that I "benefited" from suspecting Dizzy. He also has Elohcin's meta wrong (which I described above). I get that he hasn't played here long, but I can only recall one game recently from Elohcin, and it's the same one I described in a previous post, it was one of the most active games I've ever seen from her.

Additionally, there's the nightkill analysis. But that is very minor ping, dependent on his answer to my question.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Add jackofhearts to the list of suspicions.

I don't like this post. I don't see how he can conclude that I "benefited" from suspecting Dizzy. He also has Elohcin's meta wrong (which I described above). I get that he hasn't played here long, but I can only recall one game recently from Elohcin, and it's the same one I described in a previous post, it was one of the most active games I've ever seen from her.

Additionally, there's the nightkill analysis. But that is very minor ping, dependent on his answer to my question.
You mean that game where Epi tried to lynch her day 1 because she didn't want to play and talked about how she might not have an info or BTCC role cause she wasn't invested at all? Yeah, her day 1 here and there look pretty similar.

Re:question

How did you benefit? Meant you looked better in my eyes. Or are you looking for how it did that?
I'm having trouble finding this game. There was Mafia of Unfortunate Events where she was my mafia teammate. She was lynched Day 5 and had 87 posts while alive. Then there was Monkey Island where she subbed out Day 1 (or 2, sometime early). But she was a civilian in that game. You were in both of these games, which is why I mention them.

That makes more sense. I don't get how I would personally benefit from suspecting a person, but I get that it impacts other players' reads. But I tend to play better under suspicion, so

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
nutella wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
nutella wrote:INH and Quin are making me sad. Dys is the player I trust the most currently (or on about equal footing with Silver and Golden). I believe SO strongly that Dys is civ, I'd say even more so given the recent discussion -- especially their replies to Quin. I was thinking "amen" to everything Dys said in response to Quin's utterly ridiculous and nuance-lacking accusation that they haven't provided reads/reactions to the fakeslip when they so clearly have, and has generally acted very town.

I'm also disappointed in you, Sloonei. I'm glad you backed off of Scotty, since he's been hinting all game and that's part of why I believe he's probably town. But I thought you had said a couple pages back that you'd also be willing to vote for INH or Marmot, and now you don't seem to be considering that at all. I wish you would consider switching to Marmot, especially so close to the deadline when we're not even hitting the soft lynch threshold and he's our best shot.

lots of linki. Sloon can you give reasons you think MM is town?
If you could vote for anyone not named Metalmarsh89 or insertnamehere, who would you vote for?
Well, I wouldn't, but hypothetically if I had to, probably someone out of Jack, LC, maaaybe Eloh, and... yeah that's about it.
I understand an Elohcin vote, but only because she's made it clear she's not interested in the game.

jackofhearts I get... sort of. I recall a couple things he's said that pinged me, although his responses were solid.

Why Long Con?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
Quin wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
Quin wrote:
Elohcin wrote:Quin, who should I vote for?
I wouldn't recommend voted outside of those already on the poll. Decent cases have been made for everyone currently on it.
and who would that be?
I won't tell you that. I'd rather you make a decision on your own.
I just wanted to know who even had votes. Ah well..whatever. I'm over this game.

and the linki is INSANE....has been all hour.

AH....like 4ths linki and I finally see votals. really? votals? lord. I vote Elohcin

LINKI LINKI GAHHHHHH
Scum would not make such a ballsy move.

Marmot went to a lot of trouble to stand in Elohcin's defense. He put more into that than he put into anything else in his post history, by my measure. He provided a meta perspective of her play which I would call patently false (Elohcin has plenty of mafia games where she does very little). The truly interesting portion though is the one I have highlighted at the end.

I think Marmot spewed her town. Marmot has the advantage of inside knowledge given his team's makeup, and contrary to popular belief -- a scum has reasons to town read a low content player like Elohcin. Bad guys perceive these opportunities as cake-walks to creditsville -- civilians love to lynch people with Elohcin's general profile in this game, and when they get it wrong they turn on one another for attacking the easy target. Marmot high-roaded it instead, and that last post was a mistake of his IMO. She self-voted because she was genuinely sick of trying to deal with this game (and I don't think she'd have been inclined to do that as a baddie; I've been teamed with her twice), and Marmot felt like he had to react to it in some way.

So he reacted with the truth.

Elohcin stuff

Elohcin said nothing about Marmot.

~~~

I don't see a Sloonei take on this.

Conclusion

I've changed my mind. I don't think this is a null look for Elohcin, I think it paints her as a civilian. I welcome argument on this point as it may not be consensus.

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

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