Phenon Mafia: ENDGAME - Snuffed

[Strawhenge]

I've been meaning to ask, but refresh me on the meaning of POE.

It's one of those lantern-toting ghosts in Ocarina of Time.

I've been meaning to ask, but refresh me on the meaning of POE.

He was a time-traveling alcoholic who wrote horror stories.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Golden, have any of your earlier reads changed significantly in the present?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

-

lol

process of elimination

[speedchuck]

Strawhenge:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Process_of_elimination

[Fredwood]

Usually when I want to be completely noncommittal when challenged about my suspicions, I tend to fall quite short of three paragraphs. I applaud your effort.

(.gif of Fry narrowing his eyes)

To be fair I was addressing juliets specific question as to why I was reading Jack as scum previously, not in regards to my view of Jack's play today. My view has progressed and I'm inclined to view that there is a high probability that he is scum.

I think JJJ's post earlier was interesting about making the mafia choose between Jack and Quin, and while he may have an optimistic view of the situation, my pessimistic brain keeps concocting the scary scenario that if they don't kill either of them we'll just keep having this same argument, that's where my mind keeps going. I do feel, the way this day turns out, one of them has to be dead by the end of the phase. Scum is killing universally approved townies with strong powers, I disagree about this argument fitting into that scenario.

[Sloonei]

I want Golden's night results.

Claiming watcher puts a target on your back. Doing so without bringing forward good information is unnecessary.

I can understand some hesitancy to reveal night information due to the possibility of outing say, the doctor, but I think that ship has sailed.

We already ran into trouble with Golden misinterpreting his information (thinking Marmot had busdriver JJJ and Fred). I wouldn't be surprised (assuming Golden is town) if there was a useful gem of information for the town in those results.

Bullshit. We didn't run into any trouble with me misinterpreting information. I made the claim specifically because I was trying to draw out whether or not jay was bad (I mean, it followed from my claim that I was misdirected). Then I gave accurate information that I did not misinterpret.

I have been very clear that I saw no one but me in my watching results the last two nights. What 'useful gem of information' do you think is in there? Because I can only think of one, and that is knowing who I've targeted, and I think that's of more use to scum than town.

Why are you alive? Why did you not watch the publicly exposed vigilante and cop the last two nights?

These questions seem oddly contradictory.

You're right. But on the one hand, you claim to be an unlimited-shot watcher (I think) while all the other roles in the game seem somehow limited, and you're also apparently holding the map, yet you've gone untouched by the mafia.

On the other hand we've had two publicly outed town power roles who you've failed to watch over at night. Two separate possible angles to doubt the validity of your claim.

[Strawhenge]

<snip>
Why are you alive? Why did you not watch the publicly exposed vigilante and cop the last two nights?

These questions seem oddly contradictory.

Yet pretty decent questions.

linki: thank yewwww

linki 2: FW, I'll read your post when people stop posting and I can get this post posted.

linki 3: goddammit Sloonei I'm trying to post here

[Sloonei]

It does not seem that anybody in the game has a town read on Soneji.

[speedchuck]

It does not seem that anybody in the game has a town read on Soneji.

Bussing or mafia waiting for a lynch train to start?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It does not seem that anybody in the game has a town read on Soneji.

Marmot did.

[Sloonei]

It does not seem that anybody in the game has a town read on Soneji.

Bussing or mafia waiting for a lynch train to start?

I'm not sure I understand this question.

[Strawhenge]

Usually when I want to be completely noncommittal when challenged about my suspicions, I tend to fall quite short of three paragraphs. I applaud your effort.

(.gif of Fry narrowing his eyes)

To be fair I was addressing juliets specific question as to why I was reading Jack as scum previously, not in regards to my view of Jack's play today. My view has progressed and I'm inclined to view that there is a high probability that he is scum.

I think JJJ's post earlier was interesting about making the mafia choose between Jack and Quin, and while he may have an optimistic view of the situation, my pessimistic brain keeps concocting the scary scenario that if they don't kill either of them we'll just keep having this same argument, that's where my mind keeps going. I do feel, the way this day turns out, one of them has to be dead by the end of the phase. Scum is killing universally approved townies with strong powers, I disagree about this argument fitting into that scenario.

Why doesn't the argument fit into this scenario?

[speedchuck]

It does not seem that anybody in the game has a town read on Soneji.

Bussing or mafia waiting for a lynch train to start?

I'm not sure I understand this question.

Do you think it's more likely that mafia are throwing their teammate Soneji under a bus since Soneji has provided little value and a lot of suspicion?

Or do you think that Soneji is town, hasn't been around, and mafia are continuing to remind us of how much we suspect them while waiting for us to "cast the first stone", so to speak?

[Strawhenge]

When I've been scum in the past, I've personally employed both options; they're equally likely, I think.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm moving Fredwood to my Not Lynching tier. Come at me, mafia.

[Fredwood]

Usually when I want to be completely noncommittal when challenged about my suspicions, I tend to fall quite short of three paragraphs. I applaud your effort.

(.gif of Fry narrowing his eyes)

To be fair I was addressing juliets specific question as to why I was reading Jack as scum previously, not in regards to my view of Jack's play today. My view has progressed and I'm inclined to view that there is a high probability that he is scum.

I think JJJ's post earlier was interesting about making the mafia choose between Jack and Quin, and while he may have an optimistic view of the situation, my pessimistic brain keeps concocting the scary scenario that if they don't kill either of them we'll just keep having this same argument, that's where my mind keeps going. I do feel, the way this day turns out, one of them has to be dead by the end of the phase. Scum is killing universally approved townies with strong powers, I disagree about this argument fitting into that scenario.

Why doesn't the argument fit into this scenario?

Which argument the first part or second part?

I was saying I disagreed with JJJ's view that the mafia are likely to kill one of them tonight. Neither of them are universally approved townies, I don't see any reason why scum would want to kill them, especially since it is an even night tonight. It wasn't an argument, I'm just paranoid about his scenario.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We should remember that Sloonei's gun provides an added benefit -- it can used to eliminate a player who is otherwise a difficult lynch. Soneji is not a difficult lynch right now. That's probably a waste of a bullet.

We can shoot someone else, absorb the information gained, and then decide to lynch Soneji or someone else thereafter.

[speedchuck]

I'm moving Fredwood to my Not Lynching tier. Come at me, mafia.

Cool.

He's been there most of the game for me.

Come at US.

[Sloonei]

It does not seem that anybody in the game has a town read on Soneji.

Bussing or mafia waiting for a lynch train to start?

I'm not sure I understand this question.

Do you think it's more likely that mafia are throwing their teammate Soneji under a bus since Soneji has provided little value and a lot of suspicion?

Or do you think that Soneji is town, hasn't been around, and mafia are continuing to remind us of how much we suspect them while waiting for us to "cast the first stone", so to speak?

I could see both, but given that several town reads (including one confirmed town) have expressed some degree of suspicion against him, I do not fear scum manipulation too much here. My own read of him turned up very little that was positive.

I would prefer to shoot a widely suspected player like Soneji and leave the more contested options to be settled via lynch. That way we have votes and conversation to analyze tomorrow.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was saying I disagreed with JJJ's view that the mafia are likely to kill one of them tonight. Neither of them are universally approved townies, I don't see any reason why scum would want to kill them, especially since it is an even night tonight. It wasn't an argument, I'm just paranoid about his scenario.

I understand. I think it might be a good problem to have, because if the mafia agree with you and let us continue arguing about it -- they're also leaving a supporting role alive. Like I said before: pick your poison baddies.

I'm not hardheaded about pursuing that strategy though.

[Long Con]

EBWOP: I mean Sloonei. Damn name similarities.

Have you given an answer about your nights 1 & 3 targets?

No. I have no such targets.

[Fredwood]

It does not seem that anybody in the game has a town read on Soneji.

Bussing or mafia waiting for a lynch train to start?

I'm not sure I understand this question.

Do you think it's more likely that mafia are throwing their teammate Soneji under a bus since Soneji has provided little value and a lot of suspicion?

Or do you think that Soneji is town, hasn't been around, and mafia are continuing to remind us of how much we suspect them while waiting for us to "cast the first stone", so to speak?

Frankly this is why I thought we were giving him a pass, we learn nothing by his lynch. There has been a precedent for town giving skaters a pass this game with eloh, so the fact that he hasn't been lynched or strongly pursued to this point hasn't been a red flag.

Should I reassess this belief?

[Sloonei]

EBWOP: I mean Sloonei. Damn name similarities.

Have you given an answer about your nights 1 & 3 targets?

No. I have no such targets.

So your only night action has been to give me a gun on Night 2?

[Strawhenge]

We should remember that Sloonei's gun provides an added benefit -- it can used to eliminate a player who is otherwise a difficult lynch. Soneji is not a difficult lynch right now. That's probably a waste of a bullet.

We can shoot someone else, absorb the information gained, and then decide to lynch Soneji or someone else thereafter.

Who would you suggest?

[Long Con]

Even at the time, as the actual map holder, it was clear to me lc was not asking if he could trust me but rather if the map was useful, which is why my response to him was what it was.

For some reason I'm unable to grab the actual post, but the quote is, 'To the three Map-Holders: Do you think you should be followed? Do you feel like you can look at the map and further a Civ win with your choices?'

Do you think you should be followed. Do you feel like you can look at the map and further a Civ win with your choices.

That is, literally, asking them if they can be trusted. But I do need to stress that this was just a peculiar post, rather than an outright suspicious one. It's far from my main focus on LC.

This point is getting extremely droppable, yet you keep hanging on.

I can't be any more clear as to the difference between what you are saying and what I was saying. I just. My question was about deciphering the map, and clarity of vision due to the map.

[Long Con]

EBWOP: I mean Sloonei. Damn name similarities.

Have you given an answer about your nights 1 & 3 targets?

No. I have no such targets.

So your only night action has been to give me a gun on Night 2?

Correct.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We should remember that Sloonei's gun provides an added benefit -- it can used to eliminate a player who is otherwise a difficult lynch. Soneji is not a difficult lynch right now. That's probably a waste of a bullet.

We can shoot someone else, absorb the information gained, and then decide to lynch Soneji or someone else thereafter.

Who would you suggest?

Probably one of the employees of Phenon Mafia Municipal Hospital.

[Sloonei]

EBWOP: I mean Sloonei. Damn name similarities.

Have you given an answer about your nights 1 & 3 targets?

No. I have no such targets.

So your only night action has been to give me a gun on Night 2?

Correct.

Are you willing to share any more information about your role?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Correct.

Was your intent to give Sloonei a gun, or to give Sloonei a thing?

[Long Con]

I've been meaning to ask, but refresh me on the meaning of POE.

Predict, Observe, Explain.

[Long Con]

Correct.

Was your intent to give Sloonei a gun, or to give Sloonei a thing?

I knew what I was giving him.

[Strawhenge]

Even at the time, as the actual map holder, it was clear to me lc was not asking if he could trust me but rather if the map was useful, which is why my response to him was what it was.

For some reason I'm unable to grab the actual post, but the quote is, 'To the three Map-Holders: Do you think you should be followed? Do you feel like you can look at the map and further a Civ win with your choices?'

Do you think you should be followed. Do you feel like you can look at the map and further a Civ win with your choices.

That is, literally, asking them if they can be trusted. But I do need to stress that this was just a peculiar post, rather than an outright suspicious one. It's far from my main focus on LC.

This point is getting extremely droppable, yet you keep hanging on.

I can't be any more clear as to the difference between what you are saying and what I was saying. I just. My question was about deciphering the map, and clarity of vision due to the map.

You just keep telling yourself that.

[speedchuck]

Nobody is really 'wrong' concerning who to lynch and who to vig.

At some point, though, Eloh and Soneji need to die or we need to get info on them in some way. Anything we use to kill them will not provide much discussion. Mafia won't do it for us.
Just saying. They're good targets for investigations or vigs, but all of those are dead.

Soneji, you can go for better discussion, or you can be satisfied with the discussion we already had and shoot a complete unknown, to get it out of the way.

[speedchuck]

Even at the time, as the actual map holder, it was clear to me lc was not asking if he could trust me but rather if the map was useful, which is why my response to him was what it was.

For some reason I'm unable to grab the actual post, but the quote is, 'To the three Map-Holders: Do you think you should be followed? Do you feel like you can look at the map and further a Civ win with your choices?'

Do you think you should be followed. Do you feel like you can look at the map and further a Civ win with your choices.

That is, literally, asking them if they can be trusted. But I do need to stress that this was just a peculiar post, rather than an outright suspicious one. It's far from my main focus on LC.

This point is getting extremely droppable, yet you keep hanging on.

I can't be any more clear as to the difference between what you are saying and what I was saying. I just. My question was about deciphering the map, and clarity of vision due to the map.

You just keep telling yourself that.

I think literally everyone disagrees with your interpretation... at least Golden, I, and LC do.

[Long Con]

EBWOP: I mean Sloonei. Damn name similarities.

Have you given an answer about your nights 1 & 3 targets?

No. I have no such targets.

So your only night action has been to give me a gun on Night 2?

Correct.

Are you willing to share any more information about your role?

I'd prefer not to. Not today anyway.

[Long Con]

Soneji, you can go for better discussion, or you can be satisfied with the discussion we already had and shoot a complete unknown, to get it out of the way.

Hee hee hee you did it too!

[Long Con]

What is the difference between Elohcin and Soneji?

[Long Con]

Even at the time, as the actual map holder, it was clear to me lc was not asking if he could trust me but rather if the map was useful, which is why my response to him was what it was.

For some reason I'm unable to grab the actual post, but the quote is, 'To the three Map-Holders: Do you think you should be followed? Do you feel like you can look at the map and further a Civ win with your choices?'

Do you think you should be followed. Do you feel like you can look at the map and further a Civ win with your choices.

That is, literally, asking them if they can be trusted. But I do need to stress that this was just a peculiar post, rather than an outright suspicious one. It's far from my main focus on LC.

This point is getting extremely droppable, yet you keep hanging on.

I can't be any more clear as to the difference between what you are saying and what I was saying. I just. My question was about deciphering the map, and clarity of vision due to the map.

You just keep telling yourself that.

I won't turn down a cheers.

[speedchuck]

Soneji, you can go for better discussion, or you can be satisfied with the discussion we already had and shoot a complete unknown, to get it out of the way.

Hee hee hee you did it too!

Yeah, that was for Sloonei.

Sloon, kill that impostor so that we stop getting confused. *kidding*

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What is the difference between Elohcin and Soneji?

I would call the former a truly absent player and the latter an actively suspicious player. Soneji isn't in trouble because he is quiet.

[Golden]

I want Golden's night results.

Claiming watcher puts a target on your back. Doing so without bringing forward good information is unnecessary.

I can understand some hesitancy to reveal night information due to the possibility of outing say, the doctor, but I think that ship has sailed.

We already ran into trouble with Golden misinterpreting his information (thinking Marmot had busdriver JJJ and Fred). I wouldn't be surprised (assuming Golden is town) if there was a useful gem of information for the town in those results.

Bullshit. We didn't run into any trouble with me misinterpreting information. I made the claim specifically because I was trying to draw out whether or not jay was bad (I mean, it followed from my claim that I was misdirected). Then I gave accurate information that I did not misinterpret.

I have been very clear that I saw no one but me in my watching results the last two nights. What 'useful gem of information' do you think is in there? Because I can only think of one, and that is knowing who I've targeted, and I think that's of more use to scum than town.

Why are you alive? Why did you not watch the publicly exposed vigilante and cop the last two nights?

These questions seem oddly contradictory.

You're right. But on the one hand, you claim to be an unlimited-shot watcher (I think) while all the other roles in the game seem somehow limited, and you're also apparently holding the map, yet you've gone untouched by the mafia.

On the other hand we've had two publicly outed town power roles who you've failed to watch over at night. Two separate possible angles to doubt the validity of your claim.

This is all fair, but the claim is the truth.

Being lynched would be a blessed relief, but it's not going to help the town.

[Strawhenge]

There's a lot of stuff I wasn't here for, so if someone else has the answer to this, I would love to be enlightened.

But hey Golden, I'm curious about your vote for INH instead of La Marmota?

linki: Oh, cool, he's here. Golden! Hey Golden! {points at question]

[Strawhenge]

(I wholeheartedly apologize if this has been answered.)

[Sloonei]

These two posts from Day 3 are the most relevant, I think, when trying to asses whether or not Long Con would conceivably have given me a gun during night 2. He had very little to say about my spot in the game the first two days (null on sorsha, I came in late) but placed a relatively early vote on Metalmarsh on Day 2. He then came in saying Day 3 that he'd be worried about people who were pushing for marmot to be town in less extreme terms than INH. I had been in that camp for a little while prior to my vote, but I think my vote could have believably cancelled that out in Long Con's mind.

The second post I linked to above is a big long catch-up style post. He prods me with a couple of questions regarding my treatment of Dyslexicon around the deadline on Day 2. I don't get strong interrogative vibes from the questions, but they did seem to contain a hint of skepticism. I wouldn't say it's strong enough to rule out the possibility that he believed in my towniness enough to gift me with a gun Night 2.

However, his apparent obliviousness as to what happened at the end of the day and relative silence about me prior to Night 2 makes it a little questionable that he would choose to gift me a gun that night as his one and only night action for the game thus far.

[Golden]

There's a lot of stuff I wasn't here for, so if someone else has the answer to this, I would love to be enlightened.

But hey Golden, I'm curious about your vote for INH instead of La Marmota?

linki: Oh, cool, he's here. Golden! Hey Golden! {points at question]

I wasn't around for the second half of the phase. I've already addressed this earlier although I admit my iso is a pain. I can't say what I would have done for sure but marmot was on the table for me.

[Sloonei]

Golden, do you know anything about the specific items in each area on the map?

[Golden]

Golden, do you know anything about the specific items in each area on the map?

No. I know nothing except the locations and where you can get to from each one. And they are two different sets of information so I need to cross reference all the time. It's fun but I don't feel there is any game benefit to the holder.

[Sloonei]

The biggest and most obvious hang up with Long Con's role claim is that we know that items are being passed out based on our travel destinations. I am uncertain that I believe we have a town inventor who is also giving out items along with this built-in game mechanic. It's not impossible, but I'm not sure how likely it is either. It does not help that LC claims to have given out no other items in the game, and that I am having a hard time justifying him giving me the gun of all people.

[Sloonei]

I leave for work in 2 hours. I'd like to shoot before then to give myself time to cast a good vote as well.

[speedchuck]

The biggest and most obvious hang up with Long Con's role claim is that we know that items are being passed out based on our travel destinations. I am uncertain that I believe we have a town inventor who is also giving out items along with this built-in game mechanic. It's not impossible, but I'm not sure how likely it is either. It does not help that LC claims to have given out no other items in the game, and that I am having a hard time justifying him giving me the gun of all people.

But at the same time, he knows what night you got it.

Did you hint at it enough for him to guess confidently?