Phenon Mafia: ENDGAME - Snuffed

[Strawhenge]

Guys, I've been so damn busy I haven't even checked the EOD from last day phase. It'll be a while before I'm caught up.

[Dyslexicon]

Hi, and good night^^

[Dyslexicon]

Oh lol. Didn't even see Quin and Golden die. GG guys^^

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Yeah, it looks like the thread is supposed to be locked and we're supposed to be quiet now. The hammer was dropped.

[Dyslexicon]

Long Con, Quin and Golden I kind of wish we could triple lynch.

My prayers are answered. \o/

[Dyslexicon]

Oh, thought we could post until thread was locked.

Good night^^

[Epignosis]

I don't understand.

If you think the thread is supposed to be locked, and no one is around to lock it, why not just...I don't know...refrain from posting?

[Epignosis]

Anyway, you're going to have to wait for sprityo. This is his show. I'm here for other purposes, not locking the thread or announcing lynches. That's all sprit.

[Epignosis]

But I locked it anyway.

[sprityo]

oh I see you guys hammered?

Speedchuck they're not used to our CPI ways

I'll post the reveal shortly

[sprityo]

Night 5 - And Another

Long Con has been lynched! He was Rex:

Spoiler: show

LongCon -Mafia Power Killer:
You are the Other Night Power Killer and are aligned with the HIVE (Mafia).

When performing the Night kill, you can choose to do a Silent kill or a Piercing kill. You cannot perform the night kill on consecutive nights unless last mafia alive. You win when the mafia equal or outnumber the town

Night ends in 25.5 hours or at approx 11 pm est 2/27/2017

[sprityo]

The item for tonight is the Camouflage!

Send in your votes and send in your night actions asap!!!

[sprityo]

Day 6 - Culling of the Weak


The train slowly pulls to a stop at the Moonshine Resort Town Train Depot. Not even a week before. There had been three times the people aboard this train in search of a better life. Now, only Eight remain. Car No.3 felt empty. Some people shied away from talking. While others were trying their damndest to keep investigations going. Besides….It appears that they weren’t 100% done with removing threats yet.

----------------------------------

Eugene Gamma leaned over the desk underneath his television display. Dark circles under his eyes, he looked awful. Bottles and broken glass lay strewn about on the carpet, stained beyond repair. “Soon enough Eugene…. Soon enough.” He picked himself up and shambled over to his sink, splashing water onto himself. “Now wake the fuck up you ugly shit!” He stared at the person in the mirror that looked back at him. Lines of his aging body were apparent, around his eyes the most. His silver hair looked thin and limp. His face, unshaven and patchy.

“Just a few more days……”


-------------------------------------------

Eugene entered the Car briefly to tell the rest of the passengers that he was going out for some fresh air. And that he was going to have the Dragons watch over the train car from the outside in his stay. The Dragons, as some knew, are what remains of the official United States military, and were a force to be reckoned with.

“Oh and one more thing….” Gamma added.

“It appears, our friend Scotty has finally succumb to his wounds…. Or at least, I hope that is the case.”

When Gamma mentioned wounds and Scotty, the rest of the passengers recognized who he was referring to immediately. It was a miracle Scotty had lived this long, even able to move around with the handmade prosthetics.

But every runs out of time eventually. Scotty was Mike Dini, The Quadriplegic:

Spoiler: show

Mike Dini had one of the most average lives imaginable. A car salesman, with a wife and two kids. Two story house with a green lawn and a nice car. The Cleanser had changed everything for him, like so many other people. Mike had boarded the train in the midst of a horde of ferals and was severely injured. The doctor on board had to make the decision quickly to save his life, and it left him with nothing more than….stumps.

With a situation as bad as this though, it couldn't get any worse. I mean, who would kill a defenseless man?

Scotty - Stump
You are the Stump and are aligned with the Lifelurkers (Town).

You win once all threats to the Town have been eliminated. During the night, you may activate and become a Treestump (confirm yourself as a stump). You will be removed from the voting list as well as not count towards the total amount of living players. You are not allowed to vote either. You must activate at Night.

Eugene Gamma exits the car and strolls into the jungle covered beachside resort to enjoy himself, without alcoholic beverages for once this week. Okay. Maybe some drinks.


With 7 Alive, it takes 4 to Lynch.

Day ends in 48 hours or at 11pm EST 3/1/2017. THIS IS THE FINAL 48 HOUR DAY! Days will now be 24 hours long starting Day 7.

(Posting this a little early again tonight, since im tired.)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

speedchuck
Elohcin/MovingPictures07
DFaraday/juliets
Fredwood
Strawhenge
Dyslexicon

Tell me why you're not a threat.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We started with 21 players. We have 5 flipped as mafia. I think these are our most probable scenarios with 7 players alive:

~ 6 civilians vs. 1 independent (starting ratio of 15 vs. 5 vs. 1)

~ 5 civilians vs. 1 mafia vs. 1 independent (starting ratio of 14 vs. 6 vs. 1)

There's potential for a non-hostile independent somewhere in the equation too. A 6-player mafia team sounds a little steep but not implausible given the strength of town roles we have seen. We also must note that there was a death in the night phase, which may imply a living mafioso or that the demo man inherited their kill.

[Strawhenge]

First, before anything, let me just briefly celebrate that this is the most correct I have ever been about the scum team, in any mafia game ever.

Second, let me briefly weep about such a game being the one I have had dick for time for.

Third, @Jay, I'm not a threat because I'm a top bloke. A good egg, in fact. I have nothing else. I could roleclaim, but I almost want to save it as a backup in case we don't lynch the last (? hopefully last?) scum/rogue today. My role might come in handy.

And yes, I have a good reason for why I haven't even mentioned having a role this entire time.

[speedchuck]

We started with 21 players. We have 5 flipped as mafia. I think these are our most probable scenarios with 7 players alive:

~ 6 civilians vs. 1 independent (starting ratio of 15 vs. 5 vs. 1)

~ 5 civilians vs. 1 mafia vs. 1 independent (starting ratio of 14 vs. 6 vs. 1)

There's potential for a non-hostile independent somewhere in the equation too. A 6-player mafia team sounds a little steep but not implausible given the strength of town roles we have seen. We also must note that there was a death in the night phase, which may imply a living mafioso or that the demo man inherited their kill.

Don't forget that there are two independents. INH already flipped. Also, I don't think the marker would inherit the nightkill. Seems overpowered.
As strange as it sounds, I'm willing to bet on 5 civilians vs. 1 mafia vs. 1 independent (starting ratio of 13 vs. 6 vs. 1 vs. 1)

That... could be worse, as settings go. I'm super surprised to see a nightkill at this point.

As for your question, please tell me what an answer to that would be. "Because I'm town"? "Because I'm X role"? It's not the first time I've been asked that question in this game, and it's not a question I'm used to. I'm not sure what you're looking for with that.

[Strawhenge]

Also I'm baffled that the scum and/or rogue have let Jay live this whole time. Having a confirmed town is nothing but detrimental to them, if I'm not missing something.

[speedchuck]

Also I'm baffled that the scum and/or rogue have let Jay live this whole time. Having a confirmed town is nothing but detrimental to them, if I'm not missing something.

Agreed. Especially when it's JJJ.

Though right now, they're probably trying to kill the rogue marker, given yesterday.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If there's another mafioso I think it's you, speedchuck. You fit the paradigm of the scum interactions in this game better than the others at a glance.

[Strawhenge]

Jay could you summarize why velocitycharles fits such paradigm, for your friend Strawhenge who hasn't been able to stay current on this game?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay could you summarize why velocitycharles fits such paradigm, for your friend Strawhenge who hasn't been able to stay current on this game?

I'd have to do full reviews to clarify, which won't happen tonight. I think he was the right mix of distancing, unclear reads progression, and WIFOM from the dead scum directed his way.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

MP, since you already claimed your role, it'd be ideal to know exactly how your role works and exactly who you have targeted with it.

[Strawhenge]

I see. I guess I'll have to read your case, whenever it happens. I didn't read him too closely, but he was coming off as fairly genuine to me.

I might have time to case one person by EOD. Strong 'might', no pun intended. Who should I do?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I see. I guess I'll have to read your case, whenever it happens. I didn't read him too closely, but he was coming off as fairly genuine to me.

I might have time to case one person by EOD. Strong 'might', no pun intended. Who should I do?

Fredwood or Dyslexicon

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've already eliminated two candidates for today's lynch. Maybe I'll tell you who they are later. If someone out there can show their glorious town colors brightly enough to become #3, then the town will win this game.

[Strawhenge]

I'll do Frederick Wood. I'll do my damnedest to do it tomorrow, because my ancient brain must sleep.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

speedchuck is correct that I had forgotten about INH in my alignment ratio considerations. That means our most likely starting ratios were either

(13 vs. 6 vs. 1) + 1 (INH) [currently 5 vs. 1 vs. 1]

or

(14 vs. 5 vs. 1) + 1 (INH) [currently 6 vs. 1]

Truth be told, I don't think it matters that much. We have the capability to POE this game to its resolution even considering the likely presence of an anti-town independent. It just demands a focused effort from the civilians still alive. The game can still be lost with complacency.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Note: it isn't actually confirmed that the presumably existent "marker" role is actually what killed Golden and Quin on Day 5. I think it's the most likely reality and will proceed accordingly; however, if anyone has a reason to propose an alternative theory it would be ideal for you to do so sooner than later. I have had some success in past games identifying LMS independents based upon their kill selection. In this case it would be mark selection, and it's probably a bit muddier than a serial killer's targets would be. I will see what I can dig up anyway.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Did speedchuck have a visible motive to make Golden and Quin go boom?

Golden stuff

Day 1

The two had a brief encounter on Day 1 which led to my own initial spat with Golden. This started with hostility but cooled quickly.

Golden asking speedchuck about Dizzy's slip. There's a tone of interrogation.

Did speedchuck have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 1? Sure.

Day 2

Dead center of the neutral yellows in a rainbow

Did speedchuck have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 2? Not a new one. It'd still be Day 1 material if so.

Day 3

The Day 1 suspicion returns to a degree

Positive feedback

Did speedchuck have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 3? Perhaps so. Even given the positive marks later in the phase, the resurgence of the Day 1 gripe is still negative attention.

Day 4

Last place in a rainbow

Waffle

Did speedchuck have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 4? Yes.

~~~

Is it easily conceivable that speedchuck marked Golden? Yes.

~~~~~~~

Quin stuff

Day 1

Their dialogue was limited and not hostile.

Did speedchuck have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 1? Not really.

Day 2

GTH civilian

Did speedchuck have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 2? Not really.

Day 3

"Doesn't get" line of questioning. Vaguely critical.

"He's just there"

Did speedchuck have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 3? Barely.

GTH civilian

Critical assertion, albeit vague

Critical assertion again, albeit vague again

Did speedchuck have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 3? Kinda.

~~~

Is it easily conceivable that speedchuck marked Quin? I wouldn't say it's easily conceivable. Quin would be a pretty arbitrary choice, which is still plausible enough.

~~~~~~~

Conclusion

I'd say speedchuck is compatible with the marking targets, a lot more for Golden than Quin.

[Marmot]

Stop killing my teammates!

[Quin]

Stop killing my teammates!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Did Fredwood have a visible motive to make Golden and Quin go boom?

Golden stuff

Day 1

Mildly interrogative

Did Fredwood have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 1? Barely.

Day 2

Lower sector of the yellow pile in a rainbow.

Mildly critical based on EOD1 voting behavior

Did Fredwood have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 2? Kinda sure.

Day 3

Golden watched Fredwood on Night 1 when he meant to watch me. He saw Elohcin/MP targeting Fredwood.

Isolated accusation of sheeping

Did Fredwood have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 3? I'm going to say yes. The watching target doesn't appear to threaten Fred, but it does bring attention to him -- no LMS indy wants that.

Day 4

Dead center of a rainbow

Otherwise there's a bunch more chatter about the watch target.

Did Fredwood have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 4? I guess it's the same as Day 3, if a bit less so.

~~~

Is it easily conceivable that Fredwood marked Golden? Yes.

~~~~~~~

Quin stuff

Day 1

Suspicion for his waffling on Dizzy / Reiterated

GTH bad

Would vote

Did vote

"Poor sportsmanship"

Did Fredwood have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 1? Absolutely.

Day 2

Back to it / Voices suspicion of Fredwood's hammer behavior

Continued

Likely to vote / Not inspired, were you Quin?

GTH bad

Did Fredwood have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 2? Absolutely.

Day 3

More bad than JJJ

Jokes

Did Fredwood have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 3? Sure.

Day 4

GTH bad

lol semantics lol

Did Fredwood have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 4? Sure.

~~~

Is it easily conceivable that Fredwood marked Quin? Yes.

~~~~~~~

Conclusion

I think it looks perfectly plausible that Fredwood marked both of these two. There are motives all over the place.

Separate note: Working through this also has me pretty much sold that Fredwood is not a member of the mafia team, if any of them are still alive. I think Quin and Soneji both spewed him town -- he was their easy mislynch target and it didn't work.

[Tangrowth]

RIP Scotty.

Okay, I'm here for just a bit. Not long. I need to do more work and stuff, but I needed a quick break.

Also I'm baffled that the scum and/or rogue have let Jay live this whole time. Having a confirmed town is nothing but detrimental to them, if I'm not missing something.

Agreed. Especially when it's JJJ.

Though right now, they're probably trying to kill the rogue marker, given yesterday.

I agree, but there's always my role.

[Tangrowth]

speedchuck
Elohcin/MovingPictures07
DFaraday/juliets
Fredwood
Strawhenge
Dyslexicon

Tell me why you're not a threat.

I'm the towniest town that ever towned.

[Tangrowth]

MP, since you already claimed your role, it'd be ideal to know exactly how your role works and exactly who you have targeted with it.

I select two targets. Actions normally affecting those two targets are switched. So, say I target Player B and Player C. B is town, C is mafia.

Mafia Player X targets Player B with a role block. My ability would instead switch that effect to teammate Player C.

That's how I understand it anyway, and I've been given no reason to believe it works differently.

Elo targeted:
N1 - Golden and Fredwood
N2 - JaggedJimmyJay and Strawhenge
N3 - N/A

I'm not sure I want to reveal whom I've targeted since then. If we do have a remaining mafia member, it's possible they're avoiding NKing JaggedJimmyJay because they're afraid of me targeting him every other night. It's also possible that they targeted him already and someone else was NKed instead, against their intention. Correct?

So given that, assuming I'm not missing something or interpreting all this incorrectly, would it be wise for me to give my other targets?

[Tangrowth]

Note: it isn't actually confirmed that the presumably existent "marker" role is actually what killed Golden and Quin on Day 5. I think it's the most likely reality and will proceed accordingly; however, if anyone has a reason to propose an alternative theory it would be ideal for you to do so sooner than later. I have had some success in past games identifying LMS independents based upon their kill selection. In this case it would be mark selection, and it's probably a bit muddier than a serial killer's targets would be. I will see what I can dig up anyway.

Something to keep in mind:

If the indy demo-man is the reason Golden and LC were marked, it's possible either or both of those players wasn't his original target. That makes analysis more unfortunately complicated, but perhaps there's a way we can determine the likelihood that this was the case?

[Tangrowth]

Oh wait, I mean Golden and Quin. LC was lynched. Just saw your speedchuck analysis.

[Tangrowth]

Okay, I better get back to work. I'll revisit the thread later today though, for sure.

[Dyslexicon]

Are there even more mafia? 6 seems a lot..

[juliets]

speedchuck
Elohcin/MovingPictures07
DFaraday/juliets
Fredwood
Strawhenge
Dyslexicon

Tell me why you're not a threat.

I'm not sure what you're looking for here but I'll try. I think my adding to the negative thoughts about Quin (even though my confidence wasn't strong) speaks to me not being mafia. And I think the fact that I knew something that caused me to question Quin shows I'm not the marker because how would the marker know something that would cause him to have doubts about Quin?

If there's a mafia left I'm not sure why they would choose to kill Scotty last night instead of someone who could potentially be the rogue. I guess Scotty could have been rogue but I think we all found his claim of stump to be believable. Also, wouldn't 13:6 be way beyond the normal ratio for civ to baddie? I guess anything is possible.

I still need to read your analyses in depth JJJ I just wanted to get your question answered before I spent time on that.

[juliets]

I forgot I have a mechanics question. Is it common for the demo man to mark and explode people and then be able to make and explode people again and again? I'm only familiar with mechanics that allow one explosion, though that is with a bomb which is a little bit different.

[juliets]

EBWOP: In my second sentence it should say "to mark and explode people again and again"

[Dyslexicon]

Also I'm baffled that the scum and/or rogue have let Jay live this whole time. Having a confirmed town is nothing but detrimental to them, if I'm not missing something.

Agreed. Especially when it's JJJ.

Though right now, they're probably trying to kill the rogue marker, given yesterday.

No they're not, as Scotty was obviously not the marker.

I wonder if Jack managed to save town with his unmarking. Looks like it, actually.

I guess we should prepare for 1 mafia and 1 3p left, though I must say that is the most scum dense ratio I've seen in a while.

[Dyslexicon]

I've already eliminated two candidates for today's lynch. Maybe I'll tell you who they are later. If someone out there can show their glorious town colors brightly enough to become #3, then the town will win this game.

I have three, including myself and you, if I'm in a good mood, so really just one. >_>
But this is very instinct level, and not meditated carefully.

[Dyslexicon]

Alright. Can we revisit the Golden/Eloh/Fred/JJJ target switch mindfuckery?
Golden said he targeted JJJ, but got Fred as a result.
Golden was probably full of shit, but not so shitty that it could easily be discovered he was lying.
MP says Eloh targeted Golden and Fred and switched them.
Would it be reasonable to assume that Golden tried watching himself?

[Dyslexicon]

I forgot I have a mechanics question. Is it common for the demo man to mark and explode people and then be able to make and explode people again and again? I'm only familiar with mechanics that allow one explosion, though that is with a bomb which is a little bit different.

On my home site, this role would be called arsonist, and it works something like this: The arsonist douse people in the night time and then lit them on fire at any point another night. So, for example he douses Barbra on N1 and Belinda on N2, and then N3 he decides to lit them on fire, causing both Barbra and Belinda to die over night. If Golden and Quin was targeted by the marker it seems there is a day detonation thing in this game, which makes it quicker to kill for the marker. However, only two people died, so either Jack did his job well or the marker can only mark every even or other night.

I don't really see how the Scotty kill can be made by the marker. Though, as a target, Scotty makes a lot of sense - not top protect priority, but very unlikely to be framed as marker (or any type of scum). But that would mean the marker can choose between regular kills and marking. I guess, it's possible.

Problem is, how do we decide lynch?
We don't know for sure that there is still mafia left?
For example, I agree that Fred seems unlikely to be mafia, but he is very much a candidate for 3p in my mind.
Speed fits both categories somewhat in my mind.
This seems very complicated when we don't know exactly what's going on.

[Dyslexicon]

Alright. Can we revisit the Golden/Eloh/Fred/JJJ target switch mindfuckery?
Golden said he targeted JJJ, but got Fred as a result.
Golden was probably full of shit, but not so shitty that it could easily be discovered he was lying.
MP says Eloh targeted Golden and Fred and switched them.
Would it be reasonable to assume that Golden tried watching himself?

Of course, MP could be lying too.

[juliets]

Alright. Can we revisit the Golden/Eloh/Fred/JJJ target switch mindfuckery?
Golden said he targeted JJJ, but got Fred as a result.
Golden was probably full of shit, but not so shitty that it could easily be discovered he was lying.
MP says Eloh targeted Golden and Fred and switched them.
Would it be reasonable to assume that Golden tried watching himself?

If self targeting is allowed in these games this would make sense to me. Otherwise, I don't understand how JJJ fits into the equation if Elo targeted Fred and Golden. To your later point Dys, MP could be lying, it just didn't strike me that he was given he gave the information so quickly when asked without knowing much (we presume) about the game.

I also agree this will be a hard decision on who to lynch. Since JJJ said he suspected Fred for the marker prior to our communication being cut off yesterday I took a look back at Fred's recent posts. I thought this post was interesting:

Spoiler: show

MP07 will be filling in for Eloh. He is of course very busy and is mostly going to just submit night actions

Sup folks?

So I really shouldn't be playing any mafia right now, but this game looks amazing and sprityo badly needed a replacement for Elo. Tried to help him find one to no avail.

Slank cover: Obviously I'm preoccupied with RL stuff and on mafia break. So I'm around to at least make sure this role doesn't go to waste. I will try to contribute however I can, but it's going to be at like less than 1% normal MP levels. Sorry, but it is what it is. I still figure that's better than the 0% that was being put forth without a replacement.

There's no way I'll be able to read this thing. So please be patient with me regarding my familiarity with in-thread content, even days out. I've popped in occasionally and I've read maybe 1/20-1/15 of the thread overall, but I really don't know what's going on, and I have no intention of reading backwards since I won't even be able to keep caught up I'm sure. So some quick summaries on major events would be appreciated.

I won't really be able to do anything until d5, assuming I'm still alive, but I may cast a vote if I can quickly become acclimated enough to feel comfortable doing so. I'll be around for a little bit off and on until d4 EoD while I continue working.

What immediate concerns or questions can I address?

Please say you didn't place a Bomb on me

because when MP came into the thread my only thought was finding out who Elo targeted on Night 1 so we could get that issue resolved. It seems that Fred had "bomb" on the brain which I know shows nothing more than it was top of mind but why was it top of mind? I think it's possible that he is the marker and knew he would soon be blowing up Quin and Golden and wanted this post to be out there to make it look like he wasn't the marker, if that makes sense.

Also Dyslexicon thanks for the explanation of the arsonist. Maybe that is how the marker works in this game which would mean Scotty was indeed killed by mafia.

[Dyslexicon]

Reactions to the boom boom bang might be worth looking over:

Juliets:

Oh wow - wth -

Whats the current vote count? Can I just vote now?

I can't believe this is over!

So this was the most immediate of the suspects. This looks pretty innocent to me.

MP:

What in the world?!?!

So I have only skimmed briefly and seen the big explosion. What should I do with my vote?

The interesting here is that MP calls it an explosion.
Did you read the story, MP?

Spped:

Hey guys, I'm back.

I'm crying right now I just can't.

What.

Hammer Long Con

This "Hey, guys, I'm back" is suspicious to me. Looks like putting emphasis on being away.
Can someone check if Speed has had posts like that earlier in this game? (I have to go now, or else I'll check this myself tonight).

Straw:

Guys, I've been so damn busy I haven't even checked the EOD from last day phase. It'll be a while before I'm caught up.

This to me looks more truthfully unaware. Don't know if Straw would need to post at all if he had anything to do with the boom boom bang?


Fred was not here to post anything. Neutral, but certainly not clearing.