Phenon Mafia: ENDGAME - Snuffed

[speedchuck]

Gotcha.

This is a special technique of speedchuck's called 'Mining the Townfirm.' In this technique, speedchuck asks the townfirm a ton of questions, expecting to get well-intentioned answers.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Gotcha.

This is a special technique of speedchuck's called 'Mining the Townfirm.' In this technique, speedchuck asks the townfirm a ton of questions, expecting to get well-intentioned answers.

I encourage that method, and would also call it on-topic.

I expected to start dealing with some tinfoiling by now though. Why are y'all so comfortable with Mr. Confirmed Townie being alive right now?

[speedchuck]

Gotcha.

This is a special technique of speedchuck's called 'Mining the Townfirm.' In this technique, speedchuck asks the townfirm a ton of questions, expecting to get well-intentioned answers.

I encourage that method, and would also call it on-topic.

I expected to start dealing with some tinfoiling by now though. Why are y'all so comfortable with Mr. Confirmed Townie being alive right now?

A role that we haven't seen yet is miller/godfather. Even though JJJ has publicly been named town, that doesn't mean he couldn't be scum!

Think about it.

Then immediately discard that train of thought into trash canyon, as JJJ is a proven tracker, and we know that he couldn't have gotten his results from other roles based on what flipped and what Golden learned. It is completely impossible that he is scum, or third party based on what we know of markers.

Not to mention that even if he was mafia, the 3p has no reason to leave him alive, and vice versa, so even tinfoil wouldn't explain his continued life.

Busdriver's still alive though.

[juliets]

Gotcha.

This is a special technique of speedchuck's called 'Mining the Townfirm.' In this technique, speedchuck asks the townfirm a ton of questions, expecting to get well-intentioned answers.

I encourage that method, and would also call it on-topic.

I expected to start dealing with some tinfoiling by now though. Why are y'all so comfortable with Mr. Confirmed Townie being alive right now?

I actually had the fleeting thought that maybe there was a baddie recruiter or the marker could recruit but dismissed it as giving too much power to the baddie team or the marker. I never thought there would be 6 baddies though. I guess at the end of the day I figure the baddies think you're the most likely target for protection. Also, they may have tried to get you when Sloonei died. Maybe I'm just naive and want to trust you so bad that I'm rationalizing.

linki will read after I post

[juliets]

Gotcha.

This is a special technique of speedchuck's called 'Mining the Townfirm.' In this technique, speedchuck asks the townfirm a ton of questions, expecting to get well-intentioned answers.

I encourage that method, and would also call it on-topic.

I expected to start dealing with some tinfoiling by now though. Why are y'all so comfortable with Mr. Confirmed Townie being alive right now?

A role that we haven't seen yet is miller/godfather. Even though JJJ has publicly been named town, that doesn't mean he couldn't be scum!

Think about it.

Then immediately discard that train of thought into trash canyon, as JJJ is a proven tracker, and we know that he couldn't have gotten his results from other roles based on what flipped and what Golden learned. It is completely impossible that he is scum, or third party based on what we know of markers.

Not to mention that even if he was mafia, the 3p has no reason to leave him alive, and vice versa, so even tinfoil wouldn't explain his continued life.

Busdriver's still alive though.

Ah I didn't think about the tracking results proving that he's town. Good. Also, is a miller/godfather the same thing I call a recruiter?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Did Strawhenge have a visible motive to mark Golden and Quin?

Golden stuff

Day 1

There's not much. Strawhenge poked Golden a couple times and got rather timid responses.

Did Strawhenge have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 1? Not really.

Day 2

Lower quarter of the yellow portion in a rainbow

Did Strawhenge have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 2? Kinda.

Day 3

Notta.

Did Strawhenge have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 3? Not really.

Day 4

Second last in a rainbow list

Strawhenge should replace LC on JJJ's shortlist

Bad gut read

Did Strawhenge have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 4? Sure.

~~~

Did Strawhenge have a visible motive to mark Golden? The timing is limited for the visible evidence, but it does exist.

~~~~~~~

Quin stuff

Day 1

Strongly positive feedback

Did Strawhenge have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 1? Not really.

Day 2

Notta.

Did Strawhenge have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 2? Not really.

Day 3

Notta.

Did Strawhenge have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 3? Not really.

Day 4

Notta.

Did Strawhenge have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 4? Not really.

~~~

Notta.

Did Strawhenge have a visible motive to mark Quin? No. Quin would have been a very arbitrary choice.

~~~~~~~

Conclusion

I'm not seeing the visible evidence. If Strawhenge marked Golden and Quin, it was for reasons not seen in this game thread.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Ah I didn't think about the tracking results proving that he's town. Good. Also, is a miller/godfather the same thing I call a recruiter?

A miller is shown to be a mafioso when investigated by a cop even though they're town.

A Godfather is shown to be a townie when investigated by a cop even though they're mafia.

[juliets]

Oops I hit enter too soon. speedchuck what are you referring too when you say "bus driver's still alive though". That role is a little confusing so I'm not connecting it with JJJ still being alive.

linki - Oh thanks JJJ. All these new terms.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I would like to hear what everyone thinks about this methodology I am employing to hunt for the marker. I have my reasons for doing the work; tell me what potential you believe it has to yield results.

[juliets]

I would like to hear what everyone thinks about this methodology I am employing to hunt for the marker. I have my reasons for doing the work; tell me what potential you believe it has to yield results.

At least it's methodical. I don't know of a good method to find an sk, never have been good at figuring it out, so from my standpoint it's got a higher potential of yielding results than what I'm doing which is just reading back on people. I feel like we probably should have divided them up and done them so you didn't have to do all the in-thread work.

[speedchuck]

I would like to hear what everyone thinks about this methodology I am employing to hunt for the marker. I have my reasons for doing the work; tell me what potential you believe it has to yield results.

I'm split.

On the one hand, if the 3P is taking out those that seem like a barrier to him, your analysis is spot on. It's good to see what they would have no their mind in that case.

But regarding arbitrariness: It seems like the correct picks for the marker to make are people that town wouldn't lynch and that mafia wouldn't kill. Looking at both of those things, your analysis doesn't seem as relevant.

But that's just my opinion on what the marker should have done. Obviously they didn't do that.

So yeah, I think what you're doing is probably helpful. And in a world where a Mafia dude is still alive, we get to analyze that dimension of it as well.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I feel like we probably should have divided them up and done them so you didn't have to do all the in-thread work.

Hey that's no worry, I'm JJJ! This is what I do.

I'd certainly be pleased to see whatever you come up with though regardless of the method you use.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Do each of you think you could name two lead prospects to be the marker (if you've already done so, please just restate)?

[juliets]

But regarding arbitrariness: It seems like the correct picks for the marker to make are people that town wouldn't lynch and that mafia wouldn't kill. Looking at both of those things, your analysis doesn't seem as relevant.

But that's just my opinion on what the marker should have done. Obviously they didn't do that.

One thing that occurred to me is the marker was trying to take out mafia first because after silver lantern's death the mafia are the highest threat to him. Civs can't kill him, the mafia can. Maybe someone already pointed this out.

[juliets]

screwed up those quotes dang it

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I would like to hear what everyone thinks about this methodology I am employing to hunt for the marker. I have my reasons for doing the work; tell me what potential you believe it has to yield results.

I'll speak more on this and answers received once I have more answers.

[speedchuck]

If there was a busdrive tonight, knowing the results could basically guarantee town victory.
MP, if you could pop in at some point for that one thing, that'd be great.

Do each of you think you could name two lead prospects to be the marker (if you've already done so, please just restate)?

Juliets and Fredwood. Strongly leaning toward Fred.

Honestly, I think Strawhenge is the last mafia.

My reasoning:
If Juliets was mafia, I'd probably be dead. Mafia, as she just said, is probably going for the marker if not the townfirm. Juliet's last post yesterday guessed that I was the marker. I doubt a busdriver would have saved me from her wrath. (stuff like this is why we need MP)

Sensed some definite anti-alignment between Fredwood and Soneji early, I think. Besides, if mafia had a vote they weren't using, I feel like they might have pressured him to use it. Not sure on that second point.

That leaves Strawhenge for last mafia, in my eyes. MP confirmed town.
If it's dizzy, after all this, I cry.

POE (if nothing else) leaves juliets and Fredwood. As others have said, there are other reasons to suspect FW for a 3p role.

[juliets]

Do each of you think you could name two lead prospects to be the marker (if you've already done so, please just restate)?

I still see Fred as a prospect. I haven't read Dyslexicon back yet so I'll hold on my other. Right now I am seeing Strawhenge as least likely based on my read back which shows he has been behind or not here most of the game and I think the marker would have had to keep up. I'm aware that could just be a ruse though. Wish I knew him better. If speedchuck ends up being my other prospect it will be because he has been smart as a whip all game and your analysis indicated he's a possibility.

[speedchuck]

If speedchuck ends up being my other prospect it will be because he has been smart as a whip all game and your analysis indicated he's a possibility.

<3

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Did Dyslexicon have a visible motive to mark Golden and Quin?

Golden stuff

Day 1

"This is what a real slip looks like"

Backs down quickly

Won't be voting

Did Dyslexicon have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 1? Barely, I guess.

Day 2

Light green in a rainbow

Did Dyslexicon have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 2? Not really.

Day 3

Defending Dizzy as an easy target

Did Dyslexicon have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 3? Not really.

Day 4

Top town read in a rainbow other than me

Did Dyslexicon have a visible motive to mark Golden on Night 4? Not really.

~~~

Did Dyslexicon have a visible motive to mark Golden? Not seeing one that means much to me.

~~~~~~~

Quin stuff

Day 1

Caught the "slip"

Not impressed by Dizzy's remarks

Still thinks Dizzy slipped

Did Dyslexicon have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 1? Sure.

Day 2

Still trying to smear Dizzy

Warping the accusation to keep it alive

Well these two definitely aren't teammates because everything Quin is saying is silly.

Did Dyslexicon have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 2? Sure.

Day 3

Still suspects Dizzy

Looks good in interactions with Marmot

Did Dyslexicon have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 3? Less so, but it technically exists.

Day 4

GTH good

Isolated ponder emoji

Did Dyslexicon have a visible motive to mark Quin on Night 4?[/url] Barely.

~~~

Did Dyslexicon have a visible motive to mark Quin? The most applicable day is Day 2, I think.

~~~~~~~

Conclusion

The sector of this analysis which most implicates Dyslexicon is Nights 1 and 2 for Quin (half of which may be absolved by Jack demarking Quin on N1). Otherwise I don't see much. It's plausible but not especially interesting.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just to scare everyone though:

When Dizzy made the "slip", the three players who first jumped to the attack were Quin, Marmot, and Golden. What do they all have in common? That might increase the viability of a purposeful effort by Dizzy, coordinated with the others in BTSC, to pull the full scope of the gambit as a mafioso.

I do think Dizzy looks like a civilian at face value though, and the combined effort of Quin and Long Con to smear them well beyond Day 1 for it might alleviate that tinfoil.

[Golden]

I'm happy to help with these analyses of who killed me if you just rezz me??? Please?

[juliets]

Just a question here about MP since we are basically discounting him as the marker or the last mafia. He says Eloh targeted Golden and Fred. If Golden targeted JJJ and saw Eloh on Fred does that jive with Eloh targeting Fred and Golden? I never fully worked this out to my own satisfaction.

[speedchuck]

I think it would be best if Strawhenge, Dizzy, and MP checked in. Parking the questions I had right here:

Strawhenge, who do you think is most likely to be scum/3P? What defense do you have against you being scum?
Dizzy, elaborate on your Golden vest-giving action N2. I have an idea of what happened, but I want confirmation.
MP, if your busdriving involved scotty last night, it's helpful to know who else you targeted. If it didn't touch scotty, it is also helpful to know that. Please come in and tell us when you can. It might solve this phase.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Juliets, I hadn't noticed that inconsistency. That's probably a problem.

Either double busdriver shenanigans are somehow involved, or you're misremembering, or MP is lying. Which... yeah.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This is why I asked MP for a clear explanation of the role. I am still not entirely clear. This is what would have to happen:

Golden targets JJJ (which can have been a lie anyway, he may have self-targeted)

Golden gets a result for Fredwood (Eloh targeted Fred)

Thus:

Elohcin targets Golden and redirects his target to Fredwood. This doesn't require my name to exist (or Golden's initial target regardless of whom) in the PM.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Elohcin targets Golden and redirects his target to Fredwood. This doesn't require my name to exist (or Golden's initial target regardless of whom) in the PM.

There seems to be a discrepancy between what's above and what's below.

MP, since you already claimed your role, it'd be ideal to know exactly how your role works and exactly who you have targeted with it.

I select two targets. Actions normally affecting those two targets are switched. So, say I target Player B and Player C. B is town, C is mafia.

Mafia Player X targets Player B with a role block. My ability would instead switch that effect to teammate Player C.

MP, further clarity is paramount. We can't afford to have miscommunication right now.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Wait. If Golden targeted himself then it works.

Golden watches Golden.

Elohcin switches Golden with Fredwood. Golden instead watches Fredwood.

I think Golden watched himself and lied about the target because it would make no sense for a civilian watcher to self-target.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Do you see this, Syndicate?

Even when people are infodumping all over the place the game isn't any easier to figure out (when it's designed that way).

[speedchuck]

Wait. If Golden targeted himself then it works.

Golden watches Golden.

Elohcin switches Golden with Fredwood. Golden instead watches Fredwood.

I think Golden watched himself and lied about the target because it would make no sense for a civilian watcher to self-target.

Then why did he info-dump at all?

And also, why did he info-dump something that town could easily prove to be a lie, if not for Eloh's inactivity?

(Agreed with your point on info dumping, though. In the end, we're still discussing motives and reads, despite the information.)

[juliets]

Wait. If Golden targeted himself then it works.

Golden watches Golden.

Elohcin switches Golden with Fredwood. Golden instead watches Fredwood.

I think Golden watched himself and lied about the target because it would make no sense for a civilian watcher to self-target.

EXCEPT this is from Golden's role reveal:

"You cannot choose to visit yourself."

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Wait. If Golden targeted himself then it works.

Golden watches Golden.

Elohcin switches Golden with Fredwood. Golden instead watches Fredwood.

I think Golden watched himself and lied about the target because it would make no sense for a civilian watcher to self-target.

Then why did he info-dump at all?

And also, why did he info-dump something that town could easily prove to be a lie, if not for Eloh's inactivity?

I think it's important to consider the context of where you are when you just role claiming and infodumping behavior. 90% of the time is illegal here, and only over the last year or so has it even begun to appear at all (the newest Heist section is where it's most prevalent). With this in mind, I don't think most of the typically prevailing wisdom about what makes sense and what doesn't with information claiming applies here. I say this as a player who started somewhere else, not on The Syndicate, where claiming was commonplace.

I think Golden claimed his role when he did because I had made my own tracker ability relatively obvious, and his fits decently well next to it. I think he claimed to have watched me because the predictive value of such a target would be similar to the truth (that he self-targeted). Either way he is targeting a vocal player who has a decent chance of drawing targets from other civilians, primarily protective roles. I am pretty sure that was his mafia-inclined objective when he did it too, to identify support roles.

He revealed it because he didn't expect it to be a problem. I did the same thing. If I were playing in a place where roleclaiming was more typical, I wouldn't have blabbed my tracker role so early. People around here don't know what to do with that stuff yet, and it left me quite comfortable to just out myself. I'm still here, as you can see. Golden felt his claim was an easy ticket not only to town credit, but also to putting him in a position of leadership.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

EXCEPT this is from Golden's role reveal:

"You cannot choose to visit yourself."

Meanwhile, everything I just said is patently incorrect.

Good eye, juliets.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

So, MP: you got some splainin' to do.

[juliets]

If Eloh is the marker and visited Fred on night 1 then Fred would have blown up with Golden and Quin unless Jack targeted Fred night 3. I can't remember if Jack told us who he targeted night 3. If he did and it wasn't Fred then I don't think MP is the marker. Golden had no reason to lie about seeing Eloh on Fred.

See if that logic makes sense.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If Eloh is the marker and visited Fred on night 1 then Fred would have blown up with Golden and Quin unless Jack targeted Fred night 3. I can't remember if Jack told us who he targeted night 3. If he did and it wasn't Fred then I don't think MP is the marker. Golden had no reason to lie about seeing Eloh on Fred.

See if that logic makes sense.

Jack didn't target Fred; he suspected him. I agree that MP isn't the marker because of this. He could be mafia though.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm having a hell of a time finding Jack's N3 target. The first two are clear: Quin and nutella. After that,

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Logically it would have been me, and that's what I'll assume. I don't see it stated in his posts though.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You don't have to plainly state what you did. It would be ideal to know who else you've targeted though.

Same thing I did to my top town read night 2 (Nut) and another strong town read on night 3 (JJJ).

There it is.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Theory: MP isn't a bus driver at all (two on one mafia team would be goofy). As a mafia member all he has to do is corroborate what his teammate Golden already said. His role could be anything. He refused to state targets earlier too which immediately rubbed me the wrong way. Golden pulled the same crap.

Vote MovingPictures07

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Elo targeted:
N1 - Golden and Fredwood
N2 - JaggedJimmyJay and Strawhenge
N3 - N/A

I'm not sure I want to reveal whom I've targeted since then. If we do have a remaining mafia member, it's possible they're avoiding NKing JaggedJimmyJay because they're afraid of me targeting him every other night. It's also possible that they targeted him already and someone else was NKed instead, against their intention. Correct?

I want every single target. I don't care about the Mafia strategy.

[speedchuck]

Theory: MP isn't a bus driver at all (two on one mafia team would be goofy). As a mafia member all he has to do is corroborate what his teammate Golden already said. His role could be anything. He refused to state targets earlier too which immediately rubbed me the wrong way. Golden pulled the same crap.

Vote MovingPictures07

With a bit of coaching, I could see MP making the moves he made as mafia. The claim and all.

Also, we had pE make a "mistake" regarding Golden's results, forgetting to show the busdriver visit (maybe Golden forgot how busdriver works or something). I'm going to go look at that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also, we had pE make a "mistake" regarding Golden's results, forgetting to show the busdriver visit (maybe Golden forgot how busdriver works or something). I'm going to go look at that.

Not sure what you mean by pE?

[speedchuck]

Also, we had pE make a "mistake" regarding Golden's results, forgetting to show the busdriver visit (maybe Golden forgot how busdriver works or something). I'm going to go look at that.

Not sure what you mean by pE?

Sprityo. My mistake.

He'll always be pE in my heart.

[speedchuck]

Got a response from sprit. He made a mistake, eloh and I targeted Fred. Still not marmot though.

as a note to everyone, I'm not a perfect host, so if you want me to double check something, just ask

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Elohcin targeted Fredwood with a roleblock. Or a role cop. Or a rogue cop. Or a whatever. This dialogue hinges on MP expanding on the role precisely, reconciling it with the Golden claims, and spilling those other targets.

[sprityo]

Do you see this, Syndicate?

Even when people are infodumping all over the place the game isn't any easier to figure out (when it's designed that way).

hehehehe

[Dyslexicon]

@Golden, you're being dense about the fact that it's me that's having your back, and not Soneji.

So I'll just make that official, cause it's creating confusion, I've given Golden a vest on N2, because I was told I could give someone a vest and I had to make up my mind in no time and my head just said "let's give it to Golden". This means Soneji had time to give out a gun, and probably didn't give out a vest at all.

Dizzy, is there anything we should know about this interaction? I have an idea of what happened, but I want to see your response first.

I don't think there's anything you need to know right now, actually.

Let's also state: if we're really dealing with a scum team that went 6-deep, bussing Marmot on Day 2 was not a big deal for them. We already know Long Con did it. I don't really think that lynch is a great indicator for anyone.

I actually disagree. If the scum team were as many as 6 I know I'd make it paramount to keep the numbers. With 6 live mafia in thread, outnumbering town can hit faster than what town would expect, plus having the sway of 6 mafia votes in thread is huge.

I would like to hear what everyone thinks about this methodology I am employing to hunt for the marker. I have my reasons for doing the work; tell me what potential you believe it has to yield results.

I was actually thinking about that just when I read your Straw post. And I was thinking I was not sure that it made sense to me or would yield the most accurate result. Speaking only for me, I frequently do night actions without exactly knowing why, like giving a vest to someone you have a null read on for example >_> I was really considering just giving it to Silver, but for some reason I was temporarily in love with Golden and had no time to decide, so that just kind of happened. Point is, I think there can be a lot of randomness in deciding actions, and knowing how a particular person reasons (or don't reason) to make a decision is easily faulty imo. BUT, this also depends, obviously, on the person, the action, the game and everything. So if you ask, "would marker be interested in going after people that they perceived a threat in thread?" I'd say that depends on what type of player they are, what their position is in thread, if they think that would make them more or less safe (wifom), if they would consider other things as more important (like how likely their targets was to die in other ways), and probably other stuff. That was a long rant, but basically - sure all analysis is useful, but I don't think those results are accurate by themselves.

Then again. My perspective might be limited and you may have reasons I don't understand.

Just to scare everyone though:

When Dizzy made the "slip", the three players who first jumped to the attack were Quin, Marmot, and Golden. What do they all have in common? That might increase the viability of a purposeful effort by Dizzy, coordinated with the others in BTSC, to pull the full scope of the gambit as a mafioso.

I do think Dizzy looks like a civilian at face value though, and the combined effort of Quin and Long Con to smear them well beyond Day 1 for it might alleviate that tinfoil.

Don't forget Soneji commenting that he doesn't understand trickster types.
It would be super cool.
I just realized that when I felt Golden knowing I was town I was right. This is why I should trust all suspicion I have that feels like insights, and just leave the messy overthinking stuff.

Also, I agree with your suspicion on MP. I do not clear MP as other people seem to do here.
Though I do recall Eloh asking Quin, specifically, who to vote for in threa. But Quin answered that she could vote any of the wagons. Why not just say the name on the player he voted (me) instead if Eloh was town?
Also, Marmot commented "scum would never do this?" when Eloh self voted. I could see Marmot being the type of player doing this to a teammate for lulzy wifom reasons. I know, cause I'd do it too.

[Dyslexicon]

@Speed, I haven't really felt strong about you being mafia for a long time, and not really at any point in the game. If I were, I'd try harder to get you lynched. I have had suspicion on you, but mostly I've wanted to do some poking and apply some kind of pressure.

Why are you clearing MP btw?

---

I'm not sure I liked how MP roleclaimed. I don't know how he would be cleared.

I'm liking Juliets as town the most.

Fred's answers looks not good on surface levels. Speed's answers looks better. Not sure where I'm at with that.

Straw is kind of forgettable at this point. I don't think he's mafia (?)

[Dyslexicon]

Kind of sucks how five mafia are dead, and I still feel we're in a dire position. o.o

[speedchuck]

Why are you clearing MP btw?

I'm not, at this point. I thought his targets meshed with Golden's claim. I misremembered, and Juliets brought it to my attention.

Basically, in trying to clear you, I was wondering if the vest you threw at Golden was the item from night one. I don't want to assume that you are an even-night vest giver or something.
If this is fishing, ignore it. It seems more like un-claiming to me, though.