Phenon Mafia: ENDGAME - Snuffed

#4251

speedchuck wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote: Why are you clearing MP btw?
I'm not, at this point. I thought his targets meshed with Golden's claim. I misremembered, and Juliets brought it to my attention.

Basically, in trying to clear you, I was wondering if the vest you threw at Golden was the item from night one. I don't want to assume that you are an even-night vest giver or something.
If this is fishing, ignore it. It seems more like un-claiming to me, though.

I either don't want to say or don't know myself lol.
So either you will have to flip tables or just leave it at that.
I should probably feel good about you wanting to clear me though.

#4252

speedchuck wrote:I think it would be best if Strawhenge, Dizzy, and MP checked in. Parking the questions I had right here:

Strawhenge, who do you think is most likely to be scum/3P? What defense do you have against you being scum?

1. I haven't caught up yet, but my gut is saying Dys or Fred. Jay made a good point about you being a last scum/rogue as well, so maybe you too?

2. I cased Long Con, voted Soneji, and accused Quin of being scum and being on Soneji's team. Plus my role, which I'll reveal in a pinch, but I really don't want any remaining scum or night-killing rogue to know about it, if I can help it.

#4253

Also, re: Fredwood's claim that he couldn't have been the demo man if he wasn't around during the time of the 'accident'...

That doesn't clear Fred at all. When I was a demo man (in a game Jay hosted, I believe), my marks died automatically at the end of Night 3, if I survived until then. Yeah, the bombs in this game didn't go off at an EOD or EON, but the role could have been written such that this would happen. There's no way for us to know or for Fred to prove exactly how his role works, so his absence at the time of detonation is moot.

Just my two cents before I dive in and start reading until I grow a long white beard and everyone in the world forgets that I exist.

#4254

@speedchuck I will clarify my gut-reads of Dys and Fred as such: I think Dys could be the rogue, and Fred could be either rogue or scum. I'm pretty sure Dys is not on the scum team.

#4255

Strawhenge wrote:I think Dys could be the rogue.

As long as it looks something like this in your head (?):

---

One thing that hasn't been discussed is whether the rogue could be not rogue but actually have a teammate. Probably not likely or productive to speculate on, but it's crossed my mind.

#4256

Right now I am feeling:

MP as mafia
Fredwood as demo man

Strawhenge as backup for both
Dizzy as tinfoil city

#4257

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Right now I am feeling:

MP as mafia
Fredwood as demo man

Strawhenge as backup for both
Dizzy as tinfoil city

I think I feel the same thing. Although I'm sad that I think Speed is probably just town.

#4258

Dyslexicon wrote:I think I feel the same thing. Although I'm sad that I think Speed is probably just town.

Why's that sad?

#4259

Aaaand there went all of my time. And I got one god damn page in.

I'm not scum or rogue. I'm town and I have a role that can help that I don't want any anti-town to know. That's all I have, other than apologies that I didn't have more time to play.

#4260

Strawhenge wrote:Aaaand there went all of my time. And I got one god damn page in.

I'm not scum or rogue. I'm town and I have a role that can help that I don't want any anti-town to know. That's all I have, other than apologies that I didn't have more time to play.

I hope you can appreciate that that sort of soft claim of a role that is a thing doesn't help much. We're kind of in the crucial stages here. There's not much space for patience.

#4261

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:I think I feel the same thing. Although I'm sad that I think Speed is probably just town.
Why's that sad?

I sometimes just want to read people as scum. It's a thing. I kind of wanted to read you as scum D1.

#4262

Okay, I'm a revenge-killer. Choose someone every night and if I get NK'd, they die too.

My targets:

N1 Jay (you'd said some lowkey shady shit, sorry)
N2 (missed the night phase)
N3 Long Con
N4 Quin
N5 Fred

#4263

I know, it's unprovable. And now if there's a night killer they probably won't target me. But there you have it.

#4264

Strawhenge wrote:Okay, I'm a revenge-killer. Choose someone every night and if I get NK'd, they die too.

My targets:

N1 Jay (you'd said some lowkey shady shit, sorry)
N2 (missed the night phase)
N3 Long Con
N4 Quin
N5 Fred

There's a gap between the 17th and 19th in Strawhenge's posts which decently-well corroborates the missed action on Night 2.

#4265

Strawhenge, I'm looking for thread evidence to justify your targeting of me on Night 1. I don't see much. This is the closest you came to voicing suspicion of me. Elsewhere you actually seemed to be following my lead, particularly regarding sig. What gives?

Strawhenge wrote:
Golden wrote:I have to say, for me the most bothersome thing about remaining on sig is that Jay is also on it.

Jay isn't returning today, though, he made that clear.
Do you suspect him? I've been focusing on other players; I thought you guys were just in disagreement on certain things.

Strawhenge wrote:
Golden wrote:linki @Straw - no, I suspect him, for sure. It's not urgent right now but it's worth a look back to understand why when you get time. It would be useful to get the perspective of someone else who has a lot of play with Jay, especially since he's so rarely bad on the Syndicate.
He was rarely bad on RYM as well. It's weird, it's like the universe knows to put one of its top scum hunters on town.

#4266

Strawhenge wrote:I know, it's unprovable. And now if there's a night killer they probably won't target me. But there you have it.

I think I believe this claim.
But this also might mean you do get targeted if your suspicions is wrong.
So can we talk about why you suspect me being 3p? Is it just an aura thing, cause I get that a lot. I have a verifiable claim though, but didn't want to get into that before I had to (don't want scum targets to get easy).

However, this claim seems reasonable to me.
And JJJ is confirmed.
So adding me now rather than later is probably better.

#4267

Strawhenge wrote:Okay, I'm a revenge-killer. Choose someone every night and if I get NK'd, they die too.

My targets:

N1 Jay (you'd said some lowkey shady shit, sorry)
N2 (missed the night phase)
N3 Long Con
N4 Quin
N5 Fred

But wait, does this work for lynching as well?

#4268

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Strawhenge, I'm looking for thread evidence to justify your targeting of me on Night 1. I don't see much. This is the closest you came to voicing suspicion of me. Elsewhere you actually seemed to be following my lead, particularly regarding sig. What gives?

<snip>

I don't remember what it was, but you said a couple things that pinged. I admit that it was a moment of paranoia based on your meta of always looking supertown even when you're scum, and I had no better choices at the moment. It was obviously a poor choice, and on D2 I wound up being really glad I hadn't been killed, because you read as town after that.

linki: It's mainly just an aura thing, yeah, if I'm catching your meaning of 'aura' correctly. And no, it doesn't work with lynching.

#4269

Okay, now I really have to go. I'll be back before EOD. (I hope.)

#4270

Straw's role claim is a creative one if it's fake. It has the adequate profile to be fake given that it cannot be resolved without him dying anyway, but that doesn't mean it isn't true. The targets interest me more than the claim itself, as they lend substance upon which Straw can be judged. The only target that appears strange is the first one, when he targeted me, and I might actually like that. Straw has been subject to my scum wins as much as anyone and he has more reason to be paranoid of my shenanigans than most people.

I've a personal bias in the matter though and would appreciate others' takes.

#4271

Moreover, if we insert Straw's claim into the larger dynamic of the setup we have seen so far, there may be a place for that on the civilian side. When a host builds a game with a seemingly difficult ratio (like 13 vs. 6 vs. 1 + 1 would be for the civilians), the most obvious balancing mechanism available is non-mafia kills. The demo man, Silver Lantern, and Strawhenge might represent that equalizer.

#4272

Strawhenge wrote:linki: It's mainly just an aura thing, yeah, if I'm catching your meaning of 'aura' correctly. And no, it doesn't work with lynching.

Well, people generally like to slap a 3p read on me now and again, it happens a lot. I think it's just something to do with how I come across. I'm town though, always, every game, trust and believe. Ok, maybe not all games, but this one at least.

#4273

Dyslexicon wrote:
Strawhenge wrote:linki: It's mainly just an aura thing, yeah, if I'm catching your meaning of 'aura' correctly. And no, it doesn't work with lynching.
Well, people generally like to slap a 3p read on me now and again, it happens a lot. I think it's just something to do with how I come across. I'm town though, always, every game, trust and believe. Ok, maybe not all games, but this one at least.

I think it's a natural tendency for any player who employs a whimsical style, particularly when WIFOM is rampant. The same phenomenon is felt here by Marmot.

#4274

I think it rings of truth. He could have easily said Eloh for example and we would have never known the difference. Or he could have said Dyslexicon - didn't he vote for him at some point on day 1? I don't think we would have had much question about that. But he said you instead Jay, which causes some question. I think he's telling the truth.

linki will read after posting

#4275

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Straw's role claim is a creative one if it's fake. It has the adequate profile to be fake given that it cannot be resolved without him dying anyway, but that doesn't mean it isn't true. The targets interest me more than the claim itself, as they lend substance upon which Straw can be judged. The only target that appears strange is the first one, when he targeted me, and I might actually like that. Straw has been subject to my scum wins as much as anyone and he has more reason to be paranoid of my shenanigans than most people.

I've a personal bias in the matter though and would appreciate others' takes.

First reaction is to believe the claim. Also, he didn't seem to want to claim at first, which I think is relevant. In contrast MP seemed to want to claim, which I didn't like as much. That was more like how Golden claimed.

#4276

Dyslexicon wrote:First reaction is to believe the claim. Also, he didn't seem to want to claim at first, which I think is relevant. In contrast MP seemed to want to claim, which I didn't like as much. That was more like how Golden claimed.

I think I agree. When a player hesitates to claim at a time like this, my initial concern is that they need time to manufacture something false -- but once I gave Strawhenge a stern, fatherly glare he was able to produce a claim quickly.

#4277

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:
Strawhenge wrote:linki: It's mainly just an aura thing, yeah, if I'm catching your meaning of 'aura' correctly. And no, it doesn't work with lynching.
Well, people generally like to slap a 3p read on me now and again, it happens a lot. I think it's just something to do with how I come across. I'm town though, always, every game, trust and believe. Ok, maybe not all games, but this one at least.
I think it's a natural tendency for any player who employs a whimsical style, particularly when WIFOM is rampant. The same phenomenon is felt here by Marmot.

Yup, and that makes sense for Marmot. One player that I took a lot of notes from when I first started playing (the one that played the first time PerC participated in the championship) has the same "syndrome".

#4278

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:First reaction is to believe the claim. Also, he didn't seem to want to claim at first, which I think is relevant. In contrast MP seemed to want to claim, which I didn't like as much. That was more like how Golden claimed.
I think I agree. When a player hesitates to claim at a time like this, my initial concern is that they need time to manufacture something false -- but once I gave Strawhenge a stern, fatherly glare he was able to produce a claim quickly.

Lol, a fatherly glare. That is so cute and kind of creepy at the same time.

#4279

Everybody always reads me as town because I am always town.

#4280

Another thing to consider regarding who is the marker and not:
The marker would probably not want to lynch anyone they had already marked. So, Juliets wanting to lynch Quin is a good look, unless Quin was marked that last night, of course, but I feel that is less likely as there was controversy around him at that point. Wouldn't take it to the bank, but maybe to the post office.

#4281

I think between MP, Fred and Speed, we have the last threats. And it's probably MP and Fred. Not sure who I'd want to kill first.

#4282

I'd prefer to remove the night kills first if possible, which I think would favor an MP lynch. It's all muddy though because the alignment ratios currently in play are still not easily discernible.

#4283

Dyslexicon wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Straw's role claim is a creative one if it's fake. It has the adequate profile to be fake given that it cannot be resolved without him dying anyway, but that doesn't mean it isn't true. The targets interest me more than the claim itself, as they lend substance upon which Straw can be judged. The only target that appears strange is the first one, when he targeted me, and I might actually like that. Straw has been subject to my scum wins as much as anyone and he has more reason to be paranoid of my shenanigans than most people.

I've a personal bias in the matter though and would appreciate others' takes.
First reaction is to believe the claim. Also, he didn't seem to want to claim at first, which I think is relevant. In contrast MP seemed to want to claim, which I didn't like as much. That was more like how Golden claimed.

MP entered the thread at 8:20 pm and claimed at 8:31 pm. That's 11 minutes to claim in a game he ostensibly knew very little about. That's just too quick even if he's experienced in role claiming games (he would have had to get that experience on other sites than the ones I've been on with him).

linki again

#4284

Believing strawhenge atm. Not around as much at night my time as I am during the day. About ready to vote MP, but I want a response from them first.

Unless deadline approaches.

linki: Juliets makes a good point. Not completely sound, as MP might have some knowledge before then, but highly possible.

#4285

juliets wrote:MP entered the thread at 8:20 pm and claimed at 8:31 pm. That's 11 minutes to claim in a game he ostensibly knew very little about. That's just too quick even if he's experienced in role claiming games (he would have had to get that experience on other sites than the ones I've been on with him).

linki again

juliets, you have been money for the little details in this game. Bang up job, because I agree with you here. This kind of reminds me of Quin in Mad Max, replacing into the game and immediately bussing his teammate to oblivion -- so fast that it was suspicious. MP's gleefull roleclaim behavior here kind of suits the same scenario, as does his "I don't want to claim all of my targets to prevent the mafia from working around me" type stuff Golden was saying.

#4286

juliets wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Straw's role claim is a creative one if it's fake. It has the adequate profile to be fake given that it cannot be resolved without him dying anyway, but that doesn't mean it isn't true. The targets interest me more than the claim itself, as they lend substance upon which Straw can be judged. The only target that appears strange is the first one, when he targeted me, and I might actually like that. Straw has been subject to my scum wins as much as anyone and he has more reason to be paranoid of my shenanigans than most people.

I've a personal bias in the matter though and would appreciate others' takes.
First reaction is to believe the claim. Also, he didn't seem to want to claim at first, which I think is relevant. In contrast MP seemed to want to claim, which I didn't like as much. That was more like how Golden claimed.
MP entered the thread at 8:20 pm and claimed at 8:31 pm. That's 11 minutes to claim in a game he ostensibly knew very little about. That's just too quick even if he's experienced in role claiming games (he would have had to get that experience on other sites than the ones I've been on with him).

linki again

Isn't that assuming that he knew nothing about the game? If he was replacing in as scum could he not have talked to the scum members first? Also, he's claiming that he still don't understand the role entirely, which is actually very suspicious to me. I would expect MP to be a person who would ask for clarification until he understood his role exactly.

@JJJ, What do you think about the point over, about MP not seeming to understand his own role fully?

#4287

Oh, I thought Juliets brought it up to clear MP, but seems I misunderstood?

#4288

Dyslexicon wrote:Oh, I thought Juliets brought it up to clear MP, but seems I misunderstood?

Right, I wasn't trying to clear him I was saying that was suspicious behavior. I think you're right, if he's bad he did get with his teammates ahead of time and thats why he was comfortable claiming so quickly. He would have known the issue about Golden's targets needed to be cleared up.

#4289

juliets wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:Oh, I thought Juliets brought it up to clear MP, but seems I misunderstood?
Right, I wasn't trying to clear him I was saying that was suspicious behavior. I think you're right, if he's bad he did get with his teammates ahead of time and thats why he was comfortable claiming so quickly. He would have known the issue about Golden's targets needed to be cleared up.

Yeah, the whole thing doesn't feel right.

Always kill MP!

#4290

I'm still open to hearing what MP has to say when he is able to make an appearance.

#4291

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm still open to hearing what MP has to say when he is able to make an appearance.

Yeah me too. I don't want to get too excited before having heard his side of the story.

#4292

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:Additionally, it really doesn't make sense why the marker would choose that time to blow up the people who they did when they did. They weren't in danger of being lynched or pressured, in fact there was very little talk of the marker or push to get the marker after it was brought up. Town was preoccupied with trying to eliminate all the targets, then they go an blow up the people that are buying them time. Conceivably we would have had to take 3 days to lynch all the people that were killed that day thus giving the marker relative freedom to continue doing his dirty deeds.
Not a fan of this thought process. If the marker had left all of those people alive, potentially [in the mind of the marker] with mafia among them, they'd be further exposed to night kills from their opposing anti-town faction. Moreover, if we lynch all of the marker's targets one by one, then the eventual detonation is going to be an anticlimactic dud. They need their marks alive to get anything out of blowing them up. Otherwise it's a bunch of flippy-floppy smoldering corpses.

Except the marker needs mafia to win right, especially with them only have 2 "marks"? That goes into my second post about poor mark targets. Why pick Quin, he was under pressure from day 2 on. I would think you remove obstacles not suspects. Especially since Quin wouldn't have been a mark day 1 it makes less sense.

#4293

Fredwood wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:Additionally, it really doesn't make sense why the marker would choose that time to blow up the people who they did when they did. They weren't in danger of being lynched or pressured, in fact there was very little talk of the marker or push to get the marker after it was brought up. Town was preoccupied with trying to eliminate all the targets, then they go an blow up the people that are buying them time. Conceivably we would have had to take 3 days to lynch all the people that were killed that day thus giving the marker relative freedom to continue doing his dirty deeds.
Not a fan of this thought process. If the marker had left all of those people alive, potentially [in the mind of the marker] with mafia among them, they'd be further exposed to night kills from their opposing anti-town faction. Moreover, if we lynch all of the marker's targets one by one, then the eventual detonation is going to be an anticlimactic dud. They need their marks alive to get anything out of blowing them up. Otherwise it's a bunch of flippy-floppy smoldering corpses.

Except the marker needs mafia to win right, especially with them only have 2 "marks"? That goes into my second post about poor mark targets. Why pick Quin, he was under pressure from day 2 on. I would think you remove obstacles not suspects. Especially since Quin wouldn't have been a mark day 1 it makes less sense.

Is that what the marker needs? I'd assume the marker can only win alone. What do you know?

#4294

Sup folks?

I'll try to skim what's been said and contribute however I can before I get some zzzz's in time for another really early morning tomorrow.

#4295

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I would like to hear what everyone thinks about this methodology I am employing to hunt for the marker. I have my reasons for doing the work; tell me what potential you believe it has to yield results.

I think it's content to digest, but marking or killing people in my experience is less based on who you had negative interactions with but what death benefits you the most. By this exercise with that logic everyone would have cause to mark Quin, but because of Quin's status of suspect they are unlikely to. My gut is telling me whomever targeted Quin with the mark had a small window to do it, and had little "motive" from your standpoint to do so.

#4296

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:Additionally, it really doesn't make sense why the marker would choose that time to blow up the people who they did when they did. They weren't in danger of being lynched or pressured, in fact there was very little talk of the marker or push to get the marker after it was brought up. Town was preoccupied with trying to eliminate all the targets, then they go an blow up the people that are buying them time. Conceivably we would have had to take 3 days to lynch all the people that were killed that day thus giving the marker relative freedom to continue doing his dirty deeds.
Not a fan of this thought process. If the marker had left all of those people alive, potentially [in the mind of the marker] with mafia among them, they'd be further exposed to night kills from their opposing anti-town faction. Moreover, if we lynch all of the marker's targets one by one, then the eventual detonation is going to be an anticlimactic dud. They need their marks alive to get anything out of blowing them up. Otherwise it's a bunch of flippy-floppy smoldering corpses.

Except the marker needs mafia to win right, especially with them only have 2 "marks"? That goes into my second post about poor mark targets. Why pick Quin, he was under pressure from day 2 on. I would think you remove obstacles not suspects. Especially since Quin wouldn't have been a mark day 1 it makes less sense.
Is that what the marker needs? I'd assume the marker can only win alone. What do you know?

It's game mechanics, early game Marker needs Mafia to help whittle down numbers, later game they want mafia dead once the numbers dwindle. I don't think they were at that point yet, especially if the Mafia kill targets continued the way they did, unless they felt that they could possibly be in a position to be killed (meaning solidly read town)

#4297

Fredwood wrote:It's game mechanics, early game Marker needs Mafia to help whittle down numbers, later game they want mafia dead once the numbers dwindle. I don't think they were at that point yet, especially if the Mafia kill targets continued the way they did, unless they felt that they could possibly be in a position to be killed (meaning solidly read town)

A few things:

~ The marker doesn't know who is mafia and who isn't, so their marking behavior isn't going to be infallibly aligned with the strategy you're presenting.

~ The marker likely wasn't limited to just two marks, as evidenced by Jack's preventive role and the passage of four night phases prior to the explosion.

~ This is all pretty speculative anyway, as our attempts to judge the desired strategy of an independent marker are inhibited by the fact that we simply don't have that role (those of us who are not guilty at least).

If not you, then who?

#4298

MovingPictures07 wrote:Sup folks?

I'll try to skim what's been said and contribute however I can before I get some zzzz's in time for another really early morning tomorrow.

You have a lot to answer for, so please make the effort.

#4299

Spoiler: show

What story do you mean? The host post? I just was recalling the conversation re: demo man, and "explosion" seemed appropriate considering the double day kill and that role's 'theme' so to speak. Hope that makes sense.

#4300

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Sup folks?

I'll try to skim what's been said and contribute however I can before I get some zzzz's in time for another really early morning tomorrow.
You have a lot to answer for, so please make the effort.

OK, I'll see what I can do.

How would you Rate this game?