GAME OVER: BLUE vs. RED

#451

Quin wrote:I don't see a problem with his voting for me. Jack is outted but that doesn't mean we absolutely have to lynch him today (though we should)

Why did it take you so long to mention Jack?

#452

DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:I don't see a problem with his voting for me. Jack is outted but that doesn't mean we absolutely have to lynch him today (though we should)
Why did it take you so long to mention Jack?

I didn't want to until now.

#453

Quin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:I don't see a problem with his voting for me. Jack is outted but that doesn't mean we absolutely have to lynch him today (though we should)
Why did it take you so long to mention Jack?
I didn't want to until now.

Why?

#454

Jackie O is vanilla.

I was comfortable keeping him around, saying that I would rather lynch the mafia member with an ability.

However, I looked back and saw that none of us (the RED vs. BLUE mafia) had any ability at all, and there was a third party, and Trump had an ability.

Given that data, I think it is reasonable to assume the entire mafia is powerless beyond a kill.

I don't mind lynching Jackie O, but I would only do so as a last resort. Lynching exposed mafia only keeps his teammates out of discussion and pressure.

#455

notsawyer540 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but going after someone else could get an innocent person killed and set us back one lynch. If we get Jack now and go after someone else on day 3, that gives us a whole extra day's worth of information to base our decision off of. Leaving Jack alive just gives the baddies more of an advantage.

What information does it give civilians and what advantage does it give mafia?

#456

Epignosis wrote:Given that data, I think it is reasonable to assume the entire mafia is powerless beyond a kill.

I don't mind lynching Jackie O, but I would only do so as a last resort. Lynching exposed mafia only keeps his teammates out of discussion and pressure.

This.

Scotty basically hog tied and handed us a hostage.

#457

DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:I don't see a problem with his voting for me. Jack is outted but that doesn't mean we absolutely have to lynch him today (though we should)
Why did it take you so long to mention Jack?
I didn't want to until now.
Why?

No reason. I just didn't.

#458

Quin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:I don't see a problem with his voting for me. Jack is outted but that doesn't mean we absolutely have to lynch him today (though we should)
Why did it take you so long to mention Jack?
I didn't want to until now.
Why?
No reason. I just didn't.

But there was a want. If there was no reason wouldn't you have stated "I just didn't" originally.

#459

DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:I don't see a problem with his voting for me. Jack is outted but that doesn't mean we absolutely have to lynch him today (though we should)
Why did it take you so long to mention Jack?
I didn't want to until now.
Why?
No reason. I just didn't.
But there was a want. If there was no reason wouldn't you have stated "I just didn't" originally.

No.

#460

Quin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:I don't see a problem with his voting for me. Jack is outted but that doesn't mean we absolutely have to lynch him today (though we should)
Why did it take you so long to mention Jack?
I didn't want to until now.
Why?
No reason. I just didn't.
But there was a want. If there was no reason wouldn't you have stated "I just didn't" originally.
No.

Why did you use the word want then?

#461

Epignosis wrote:
notsawyer540 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but going after someone else could get an innocent person killed and set us back one lynch. If we get Jack now and go after someone else on day 3, that gives us a whole extra day's worth of information to base our decision off of. Leaving Jack alive just gives the baddies more of an advantage.
What information does it give civilians and what advantage does it give mafia?

Having an extra day of posts and discussion makes it more likely that mafia will slip up and it gives us more time and more evidence to make a good decision. People randomize their votes on day 1 because there's very little information to go off of. Wouldn't it make sense to lynch someone we know is bad today and make a more informed decision tomorrow than we would if we went after someone else today? Even if we're only slightly more informed?

#462

Because I didn't want to.

#463

notsawyer540 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
notsawyer540 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but going after someone else could get an innocent person killed and set us back one lynch. If we get Jack now and go after someone else on day 3, that gives us a whole extra day's worth of information to base our decision off of. Leaving Jack alive just gives the baddies more of an advantage.
What information does it give civilians and what advantage does it give mafia?
Having an extra day of posts and discussion makes it more likely that mafia will slip up and it gives us more time and more evidence to make a good decision. People randomize their votes on day 1 because there's very little information to go off of. Wouldn't it make sense to lynch someone we know is bad today and make a more informed decision tomorrow than we would if we went after someone else today? Even if we're only slightly more informed?

What information do you gain by lynching someone you know is bad today?

#464

Epignosis wrote:What information do you gain by lynching someone you know is bad today?

We would have an extra day and night to make an informed decision based off of the posts and interactions that take place in that time. I just think we're more likely to make a mistake the earlier it is in the game. We got pretty lucky day 1, and I don't think we should push it. The logic just doesn't add up to me.

Do you think it'll be easier to catch other baddies by leaving him alive? If so, how?

#465

notsawyer540 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:What information do you gain by lynching someone you know is bad today?
We would have an extra day and night to make an informed decision based off of the posts and interactions that take place in that time. I just think we're more likely to make a mistake the earlier it is in the game. We got pretty lucky day 1, and I don't think we should push it. The logic just doesn't add up to me.

Do you think it'll be easier to catch other baddies by leaving him alive? If so, how?

How would you have an extra Day and Night? You're going to have the same number of Days and Nights whether you lynch Jack now or lynch him later. Does the number of mafia change depending upon when you lynch them? No. It doesn't.

There are (probably) three Mafia. You know one of them. You lynch him. He's out. Someone is killed. Then you go about Day 3. How does that make you more informed than the alternative below?

You know one of the mafia. You keep him around. Someone else is lynched, good or bad. Someone is killed. Then you go about Day 3.

#466

Quin wrote:Because I didn't want to.

Well here's the thing. Jack only mentioned you once in a comment that lead nowhere and you didn't mention Jack until 24 houra after his reveal. I'm pretty sure your his teammate.

#467

Epignosis wrote:How would you have an extra Day and Night? You're going to have the same number of Days and Nights whether you lynch Jack now or lynch him later. Does the number of mafia change depending upon when you lynch them? No. It doesn't.

There are (probably) three Mafia. You know one of them. You lynch him. He's out. Someone is killed. Then you go about Day 3. How does that make you more informed than the alternative below?

You know one of the mafia. You keep him around. Someone else is lynched, good or bad. Someone is killed. Then you go about Day 3.

More time = more posts. More posts = more information. More information = better decision. Right? Am I missing something?

I know I'm not as experienced as a lot of other players, but in this case my logic just makes more sense to me.

#468

DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:Because I didn't want to.
Well here's the thing. Jack only mentioned you once in a comment that lead nowhere and you didn't mention Jack until 24 houra after his reveal. I'm pretty sure your his teammate.

Okay.

#469

notsawyer540 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:How would you have an extra Day and Night? You're going to have the same number of Days and Nights whether you lynch Jack now or lynch him later. Does the number of mafia change depending upon when you lynch them? No. It doesn't.

There are (probably) three Mafia. You know one of them. You lynch him. He's out. Someone is killed. Then you go about Day 3. How does that make you more informed than the alternative below?

You know one of the mafia. You keep him around. Someone else is lynched, good or bad. Someone is killed. Then you go about Day 3.
More time = more posts. More posts = more information. More information = better decision. Right? Am I missing something?

I know I'm not as experienced as a lot of other players, but in this case my logic just makes more sense to me.

Would I be correct in saying that you care more about the 'safe' choice, as opposed to the 'informative' choice?

#470

The question is, is our chance of making a mistake and lynching a civilian accidentally greater on Day 2 or on Day 3? I tend to think it's better on Day 2, because we have fewer posts to analyze and, assuming there is a night kill, a greater pool of civilians to choose from.

#471

Quin wrote:Would I be correct in saying that you care more about the 'safe' choice, as opposed to the 'informative' choice?

I care equally about both. I think it's smarter to make the safe choice on day 2 than it is on day 3, and I think it'll to a more informative choice on day 3 than it would the other way around.

thellama73 wrote:The question is, is our chance of making a mistake and lynching a civilian accidentally greater on Day 2 or on Day 3? I tend to think it's better on Day 2, because we have fewer posts to analyze and, assuming there is a night kill, a greater pool of civilians to choose from.

This. I thought I was crazy for a few minutes there.

#472

"I think it'll LEAD to a more informative...

#473

thellama73 wrote:The question is, is our chance of making a mistake and lynching a civilian accidentally greater on Day 2 or on Day 3? I tend to think it's better on Day 2, because we have fewer posts to analyze and, assuming there is a night kill, a greater pool of civilians to choose from.

I personally think there's too many variables comparing it to previous day 2 and 3's. The information avaliable changes how we see things. I say we hunt others and keep our hostage.

Besides this can give opportunities for ninja to pick up easy kills, bus driver to swap potential night kills on a target. Look out esc roles can keep an eye on jack to confirm who the vigi may be. I mean if there are strong civ power roles that can gain information by having a global target, why get rid of it so fast?

#474

DrWilgy wrote:
thellama73 wrote:The question is, is our chance of making a mistake and lynching a civilian accidentally greater on Day 2 or on Day 3? I tend to think it's better on Day 2, because we have fewer posts to analyze and, assuming there is a night kill, a greater pool of civilians to choose from.
I personally think there's too many variables comparing it to previous day 2 and 3's. The information avaliable changes how we see things. I say we hunt others and keep our hostage.

Besides this can give opportunities for ninja to pick up easy kills, bus driver to swap potential night kills on a target. Look out esc roles can keep an eye on jack to confirm who the vigi may be. I mean if there are strong civ power roles that can gain information by having a global target, why get rid of it so fast?

I hadn't thought of a civ ninja. That's a good point. If I can find a convincing case in my ISOs tomorrow, I'll consider it.

#475

notsawyer540 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:How would you have an extra Day and Night? You're going to have the same number of Days and Nights whether you lynch Jack now or lynch him later. Does the number of mafia change depending upon when you lynch them? No. It doesn't.

There are (probably) three Mafia. You know one of them. You lynch him. He's out. Someone is killed. Then you go about Day 3. How does that make you more informed than the alternative below?

You know one of the mafia. You keep him around. Someone else is lynched, good or bad. Someone is killed. Then you go about Day 3.
More time = more posts. More posts = more information. More information = better decision. Right? Am I missing something?

I know I'm not as experienced as a lot of other players, but in this case my logic just makes more sense to me.

Your time doesn't change because you lynch Jack. You still get Day 3, do you not? People will make fewer posts during Day 2 if Jack is automatic lynch.

If you lynch Jack now, you get Day 3 and nobody talked about anything else Day 2.

If you leave Jack alone now, you get Day 3 and you force everybody else to talk about other people instead of Jack Day 2.

See?

#476

thellama73 wrote:The question is, is our chance of making a mistake and lynching a civilian accidentally greater on Day 2 or on Day 3? I tend to think it's better on Day 2, because we have fewer posts to analyze and, assuming there is a night kill, a greater pool of civilians to choose from.

When are civilians lynched accidentally?

I always lynch them on purpose.

#477

What's a civilian ninja?

#478

Quin wrote:What's a civilian ninja?

Civilian that can nk.

#479

DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:What's a civilian ninja?
Civilian that can nk.

Cool. Cool cool cool.

I'm familiar with ninjas being scum roles that can avoid tracking/watching roles.

#480

Quin wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:
Quin wrote:What's a civilian ninja?
Civilian that can nk.
Cool. Cool cool cool.

I'm familiar with ninjas being scum roles that can avoid tracking/watching roles.

I see... I generally refer to them as vigilantes idk why I decided to call it ninja this time, but others seem to recognize this roles as such.

#481

Epignosis wrote:
thellama73 wrote:The question is, is our chance of making a mistake and lynching a civilian accidentally greater on Day 2 or on Day 3? I tend to think it's better on Day 2, because we have fewer posts to analyze and, assuming there is a night kill, a greater pool of civilians to choose from.
When are civilians lynched accidentally?

I always lynch them on purpose.

Lol, I know you do.

#482

Epignosis wrote:
Your time doesn't change because you lynch Jack. You still get Day 3, do you not? People will make fewer posts during Day 2 if Jack is automatic lynch.

If you lynch Jack now, you get Day 3 and nobody talked about anything else Day 2.

If you leave Jack alone now, you get Day 3 and you force everybody else to talk about other people instead of Jack Day 2.

See?

I see what you're saying, but we're having a discussion now. And other people will weigh in on the things we say and we can weigh in on the things that they say, etc. I guess it's just a matter of strategy, but advocating not lynching a bad guy definitely seems odd to me.

#483

notsawyer540 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Your time doesn't change because you lynch Jack. You still get Day 3, do you not? People will make fewer posts during Day 2 if Jack is automatic lynch.

If you lynch Jack now, you get Day 3 and nobody talked about anything else Day 2.

If you leave Jack alone now, you get Day 3 and you force everybody else to talk about other people instead of Jack Day 2.

See?
I see what you're saying, but we're having a discussion now. And other people will weigh in on the things we say and we can weigh in on the things that they say, etc. I guess it's just a matter of strategy, but advocating not lynching a bad guy definitely seems odd to me.

Listen:

The objective to Mafia is to find out who is bad. Lynching them is the easy part.

Granted, if this were some scenario where there were secrets involved and vote manipulations, I'd be all for lynching the bad guy and being done with it.

In this particular scenario, there is one team, probably with three powerless people, and no independent to muddy things. As far as I'm concerned, Jack is already dead. His vote is useless because nobody is going to follow him. His voice is useless because it's just white noise now.

Use Day 2 to find his team. Lynch them. If you're wrong, so what? You would have been wrong Day 3 instead.

#484

Epignosis wrote:Listen:

The objective to Mafia is to find out who is bad. Lynching them is the easy part.

Granted, if this were some scenario where there were secrets involved and vote manipulations, I'd be all for lynching the bad guy and being done with it.

In this particular scenario, there is one team, probably with three powerless people, and no independent to muddy things. As far as I'm concerned, Jack is already dead. His vote is useless because nobody is going to follow him. His voice is useless because it's just white noise now.

Use Day 2 to find his team. Lynch them. If you're wrong, so what? You would have been wrong Day 3 instead.

But you don't KNOW that you would be wrong on day 3 instead. It's a numbers game, and unless the mafia kill gets blocked or interrupted in some way tonight there will be a smaller chance of lynching a civ tomorrow because there will be one less civ.

What would the mafia prefer: Being down one player or having a full team where only one of them is known? I think mafia would prefer having that extra player even if they are outed, because the odds are on their side.

#485

notsawyer540 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Listen:

The objective to Mafia is to find out who is bad. Lynching them is the easy part.

Granted, if this were some scenario where there were secrets involved and vote manipulations, I'd be all for lynching the bad guy and being done with it.

In this particular scenario, there is one team, probably with three powerless people, and no independent to muddy things. As far as I'm concerned, Jack is already dead. His vote is useless because nobody is going to follow him. His voice is useless because it's just white noise now.

Use Day 2 to find his team. Lynch them. If you're wrong, so what? You would have been wrong Day 3 instead.
But you don't KNOW that you would be wrong on day 3 instead. It's a numbers game, and unless the mafia kill gets blocked or interrupted in some way tonight there will be a smaller chance of lynching a civ tomorrow because there will be one less civ.

What would the mafia prefer: Being down one player or having a full team where only one of them is known? I think mafia would prefer having that extra player even if they are outed, because the odds are on their side.

When I'm remotely scared that we are at a lynch or lose situation then we can kill jack. Easy.

@Epi, I would like for you to go through Quin next if possible. I saw you mention him earlier and I'm curious if you read his interactions with Jack as teammate indicative or not.

#486

notsawyer540 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Listen:

The objective to Mafia is to find out who is bad. Lynching them is the easy part.

Granted, if this were some scenario where there were secrets involved and vote manipulations, I'd be all for lynching the bad guy and being done with it.

In this particular scenario, there is one team, probably with three powerless people, and no independent to muddy things. As far as I'm concerned, Jack is already dead. His vote is useless because nobody is going to follow him. His voice is useless because it's just white noise now.

Use Day 2 to find his team. Lynch them. If you're wrong, so what? You would have been wrong Day 3 instead.
But you don't KNOW that you would be wrong on day 3 instead. It's a numbers game, and unless the mafia kill gets blocked or interrupted in some way tonight there will be a smaller chance of lynching a civ tomorrow because there will be one less civ.

What would the mafia prefer: Being down one player or having a full team where only one of them is known? I think mafia would prefer having that extra player even if they are outed, because the odds are on their side.

And you would be wrong.

Stop worry about the outed mafia. Pretend he doesn't exist.

Now play.

#487

Stop worry. Jesus.

#488

Let me try that again: Stop worrying about the outed member of the mafia. Who are his teammates and why? Go after them.

#489

If we leave Jack alive we need to have unanimous lynch candidates or he can literally pop up and hammer people he knows to be civ. So basically if we are reaching end of day and have no unanimous candidate, we have to lynch him.

Otherwise yeah ignore him for the rest of the day and if we can find a unanimous candidate ignore everything he does as wifom.

#490

MacDougall wrote:If we leave Jack alive we need to have unanimous lynch candidates or he can literally pop up and hammer people he knows to be civ. So basically if we are reaching end of day and have no unanimous candidate, we have to lynch him.

Otherwise yeah ignore him for the rest of the day and if we can find a unanimous candidate ignore everything he does as wifom.

I would love to see him literally pop up and hammer people.

#491

In Soviet Russia, the moles whack you.

#492

Epignosis wrote:
MacDougall wrote:If we leave Jack alive we need to have unanimous lynch candidates or he can literally pop up and hammer people he knows to be civ. So basically if we are reaching end of day and have no unanimous candidate, we have to lynch him.

Otherwise yeah ignore him for the rest of the day and if we can find a unanimous candidate ignore everything he does as wifom.
I would love to see him literally pop up and hammer people.

English lord Epi strikes again.

#493

Epignosis wrote:
MacDougall wrote:If we leave Jack alive we need to have unanimous lynch candidates or he can literally pop up and hammer people he knows to be civ. So basically if we are reaching end of day and have no unanimous candidate, we have to lynch him.

Otherwise yeah ignore him for the rest of the day and if we can find a unanimous candidate ignore everything he does as wifom.
I would love to see him literally pop up and hammer people.

Is literally in context to Jack popping up, hammering people, or both?

#494

Quin wrote:
notsawyer540 wrote:I'm going to assume you meant to say "were," because otherwise you'd be agreeing with me. If that's the case, it brings us back to the misunderstanding bit. You simply didn't understand what I was saying. Perhaps I could've worded it better, but that hangover I mentioned was really fucking with my focus.

Or are you just mad at me for being a redhead?
I'm trying to say that saying 'But then again' is an indicator that supports the idea that you were discrediting your take on the situation.

I could never be mad at you. I'm a red-head too.

The way I see it, I could agree with you if he had said he thought you were suspicious, but then again he hasn't played with you much. That would make sense from a baddie point of view. Trying to throw around accusations, but backing off a little, so you don't draw too much fire. But saying he didn't suspect you and "discrediting" it with a claim that he hasn't played much with you, makes sense if you are both bad, and he's trying to put some distance between you and only subtly defend you.

So to me, you look much worse after this back and forth.

#495

Epignosis wrote:Jackie O is vanilla.

I was comfortable keeping him around, saying that I would rather lynch the mafia member with an ability.

However, I looked back and saw that none of us (the RED vs. BLUE mafia) had any ability at all, and there was a third party, and Trump had an ability.

Given that data, I think it is reasonable to assume the entire mafia is powerless beyond a kill.

I don't mind lynching Jackie O, but I would only do so as a last resort. Lynching exposed mafia only keeps his teammates out of discussion and pressure.

I don't think it's far fetched to assume there's at least some kind of lynch manipulation power. In addition, all those points handed out by the host might be related somehow to lynch results.
I get discussing everything else, but it's not like you're going to learn anything from those voting Jack today or the next day, so why not discuss who looks bad, and unless we find someone who feels bad, get rid of the known baddie?

And instead of discussing other options, we're now wasting our time discussing whether to waste our time voting the baddie or not...

#496

Finally caught up. Good result, all! RIP Elo.

I agree that there's no rush to lynch Jack, we just need to be careful about how close lynches are or he could tip the scales. Then again, I doubt he'd use that to save a teammate, but rather frame a civ.

To Sawyer: I have no suspicion of you. I randomized from everybody besides myself and it was you. That's all.

#497

Epignosis wrote:Let me try that again: Stop worrying about the outed member of the mafia. Who are his teammates and why? Go after them.

At this point he's just a distraction. Here we all are arguing over whether to Lynch him or not rather than discussing alternatives.

Make the outed baddie go away.

#498

FZ. wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Jackie O is vanilla.

I was comfortable keeping him around, saying that I would rather lynch the mafia member with an ability.

However, I looked back and saw that none of us (the RED vs. BLUE mafia) had any ability at all, and there was a third party, and Trump had an ability.

Given that data, I think it is reasonable to assume the entire mafia is powerless beyond a kill.

I don't mind lynching Jackie O, but I would only do so as a last resort. Lynching exposed mafia only keeps his teammates out of discussion and pressure.
I don't think it's far fetched to assume there's at least some kind of lynch manipulation power. In addition, all those points handed out by the host might be related somehow to lynch results.
I get discussing everything else, but it's not like you're going to learn anything from those voting Jack today or the next day, so why not discuss who looks bad, and unless we find someone who feels bad, get rid of the known baddie?

And instead of discussing other options, we're now wasting our time discussing whether to waste our time voting the baddie or not...

This.

#499

I have had drinks so my abilities to findicate baddies is awesome and Faraday is bad.

#500

Epignosis wrote:
notsawyer540 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Your time doesn't change because you lynch Jack. You still get Day 3, do you not? People will make fewer posts during Day 2 if Jack is automatic lynch.

If you lynch Jack now, you get Day 3 and nobody talked about anything else Day 2.

If you leave Jack alone now, you get Day 3 and you force everybody else to talk about other people instead of Jack Day 2.

See?
I see what you're saying, but we're having a discussion now. And other people will weigh in on the things we say and we can weigh in on the things that they say, etc. I guess it's just a matter of strategy, but advocating not lynching a bad guy definitely seems odd to me.
Listen:

The objective to Mafia is to find out who is bad. Lynching them is the easy part.

Granted, if this were some scenario where there were secrets involved and vote manipulations, I'd be all for lynching the bad guy and being done with it.

In this particular scenario, there is one team, probably with three powerless people, and no independent to muddy things. As far as I'm concerned, Jack is already dead. His vote is useless because nobody is going to follow him. His voice is useless because it's just white noise now.

Use Day 2 to find his team. Lynch them. If you're wrong, so what? You would have been wrong Day 3 instead.

*cries a little inside*