[END] Avant-Garde Mafia 2

[triceratopzeuhl]

Yeah except all your "groups" are still based upon the "fact" that I voted for droopy, when I voted vompatti on day 3 and 4

[triceratopzeuhl]

and given there are at least 2 mistakes found in FH's voter history so far, it's seeming pretty inaccurate to me

[DharmaHelper]

Jesus Tap Dancing Christ on a Cracker.


You're right dom, that makes no fucking sense whatsoever. If only someone had put a title with an explanation on the part of the analysis I took that from and OH WAIT HOLD THE PHONE STOP THE PRESS I FUCKING DID THAT.


Groupings (within 1 Vote of each other each vote)


That is from the original analysis post. It quite clearly states that the "groups" are people that have voted within 1 vote of each other each vote (vomp or Droopy)

The rest of that is observations and analysis based on those groups. Of course, you'd have to know that I took all that from my first post for it to make sense.... If only I had clearly stated in the post that I was compounding on my analysis, maybe you'd be less conf- SLAP ME WITH A CATFISH I DID THAT TOO!!!!!





It implies what it says, those people in the groups voted within one vote of each other both for the Droopy and for the Vomp votes.

I dunno what was confusing about that but there you go.

While I'm talking about it, here is some further analysis.

[DharmaHelper]

Yeah except all your "groups" are still based upon the "fact" that I voted for droopy, when I voted vompatti on day 3 and 4

Take it up with FH, it's her voting order. Given that you voted Vomp for 3 and 4, It really does not change much as you are one of the outliers.

[BoatsBoatsBoats]

I fail to see how the closeness of when players vote (for the same player or not) has much to do with what team they're on. In theory: yes, it should make sense. But take me for example; I have a relatively busy schedule, and I try to log in/vote at the specific times I have free. Just because my free time overlaps with others' doesn't mean that we're together. You could say that I vote similarly as other people, and yes, but most of the votes have been nearly everyone voting for one or two people. Especially this early in the game, it means nothing.

[DharmaHelper]

Wait no you're not an outlier, Truth is.

Well in that case the Kate/Boats/Aces connection is the most interesting assuming that it's still accurate.

[Kate]

Yeah except all your "groups" are still based upon the "fact" that I voted for droopy, when I voted vompatti on day 3 and 4

Take it up with FH, it's her voting order. Given that you voted Vomp for 3 and 4, It really does not change much as you are one of the outliers.

If you are going to do a fact based analysis you should do your own fact finding. Fh is probably the last person I'd trust to do that for you.

[BoatsBoatsBoats]

Wait no you're not an outlier, Truth is.

Well in that case the Kate/Boats/Aces connection is the most interesting assuming that it's still accurate.

I would suggest that you try a different method. You have data, data that in the future could become important, but this early in the game, there can't be much that can be interpreted from 3 or 4 votes where nearly everyone voted the same way.

[Kate]

Wait no you're not an outlier, Truth is.

Well in that case the Kate/Boats/Aces connection is the most interesting assuming that it's still accurate.

There is nothing accurate about that.

[DharmaHelper]

Fuck it. I try to come up with a legitimate case against INH and Rabbit because they ping me and because I don't want to vote the way everyone else is voting and it changes jack. I try to help out and give insightful analysis as to the bandwagons and it does jack. I really do not have the energy to keep swimming against the current here, people.

[DharmaHelper]

So if you want my opinion, LT's "OMGWTFNOWAI" response to my posts pinged me. There, you have my opinion.

Also FH is a noob.

[S~V~S]

Yeah except that I don't think at least one, maybe two of them, are bad, based on their posts and such. Like Boats said, maybe they get home from school/work at the same time

I am curious, DH (and I do like the diagrams, there are things in there that interest me), do you still suspect INH? Do you think you might vote for him, or for one of the people you charted? I want to know becasue i was considering following you in a vote for INH, but i got mightlly fishslapped before when I suggested it and it was pointed out that INH does not figure in your analysis.

What's up with that?

Linki

[Kate]

The pink letters were pretty.

Maybe it was the faulty facts. Srsly. Facts, faulty.

[Kate]

So if you want my opinion, LT's "OMGWTFNOWAI" response to my posts pinged me. There, you have my opinion.

Also FH is a noob.

No she is not???

[Dom]

Yeah except all your "groups" are still based upon the "fact" that I voted for droopy, when I voted vompatti on day 3 and 4

Take it up with FH, it's her voting order. Given that you voted Vomp for 3 and 4, It really does not change much as you are one of the outliers.

If you are going to do a fact based analysis you should do your own fact finding. Fh is probably the last person I'd trust to do that for you.

In this game, at least...

Yeah except that I don't think at least one, maybe two of them, are bad, based on their posts and such. Like Boats said, maybe they get home from school/work at the same time

I am curious, DH (and I do like the diagrams, there are things in there that interest me), do you still suspect INH? Do you think you might vote for him, or for one of the people you charted? I want to know becasue i was considering following you in a vote for INH, but i got mightlly fishslapped before when I suggested it and it was pointed out that INH does not figure in your analysis.

What's up with that?

Linki

Exactly.
Where does this line up? Where areyou going?

[DharmaHelper]

I might recheck the voting order when I have a chance. Probably not though, nobody seems to care.

@SVS I'm voting for LT this lynch unless someone confesses to being a baddie. Do I think INH might be bad, maybe. Do I think I can wait on that until something else comes up, yes. Do I think LT is bad, yes, Do I think I can wait on that until something else comes up, no.

[Kate]

Yeah except all your "groups" are still based upon the "fact" that I voted for droopy, when I voted vompatti on day 3 and 4

Take it up with FH, it's her voting order. Given that you voted Vomp for 3 and 4, It really does not change much as you are one of the outliers.

If you are going to do a fact based analysis you should do your own fact finding. Fh is probably the last person I'd trust to do that for you.

In this game, at least...

[Epignosis]

When did Sheldon Cooper suddenly join in?

[Dom]

Yeah except all your "groups" are still based upon the "fact" that I voted for droopy, when I voted vompatti on day 3 and 4

Take it up with FH, it's her voting order. Given that you voted Vomp for 3 and 4, It really does not change much as you are one of the outliers.

If you are going to do a fact based analysis you should do your own fact finding. Fh is probably the last person I'd trust to do that for you.

In this game, at least...

I'm smelling what you're stepping in.

[Kate]

[DharmaHelper]

Thought about it, Don't see the point in going back and getting the right voting order.

[Kate]

Thought about it, Don't see the point in going back and getting the right voting order.

Why not?

[DharmaHelper]

Nobody gave a shit when I thought this voting order was right, coming up with a different theory for nobody to give a shit about is not going to change anything.

[S~V~S]

Well, here are the last two orders FH posted. Her last 2 posts. I checked, and my two votes are correct. Anyone else wrong?

Day 3 Voting Order:
1. Mr. Droopy (rabbit) 1
2. Captain Bunny Killer (rabbit) 2
3. insertnamehere (Mr. Droopy) 1
4. Vompatti (rabbit) 3
5. The Truth (Mr. Droopy) 2
6. birdwithteeth (Mr. Droopy) 3
7. triceratops (Mr. Droopy) 4
8. rabbit (Mr. Droopy) 5
9. DharmaHelper (insertnamehere) 1
10. Flyin' High (Mr. Droopy) 6
11. Littletiger (Mr. Droopy) 7
12. AceofSpaces (Mr. Droopy) 8
13. BoatsBoatsBoats (Mr. Droopy) 9
14. Boomslang (Mr. Droopy) 10
15. reywaS (Vompatti) 1
16. Kate (Mr. Droopy) 11
17. SVS (Vompatti) 2
18. chaindeath (Mr. Droopy) 12
19. DisgruntledPorcupine (Vompatti) 3
20. Epignosis (Vompatti) 4
Didn't vote: Roxy, jokreher, Benthayer (note: Roxy and Benthayer have been replaced since then)

Day 4 Voting Order:
1. Epignosis (Vompatti) 1
2. LittleTiger (Vompatti) 2
3. BoatsBoatsBoats (Vompatti) 3
4. AceofSpaces (Vompatti) 4
5. SVS (Vompatti) 5
6. Kate (Vompatti) 6
7. Juliet (Vompatti) 7
8. Vompatti (Boats) 1
9. DisgruntledPorcupine (Vompatti) 8
10. DharmaHelper (insertnamehere) 1
11. reywaS (Vompatti) 9
12. The Truth (Vompatti) 10
13. rabbit (Vompatti) 11
14. Boomslange (insertnamehere) 2
15. triceratops (Vompatti) 12
16. Flyin' High (Vompatti) 13
17. birdwithteeth (Vompatti) 14
18. chaindeath (Vompatti) 15
19. Mr. Droopy (rabbit) 1
20. insertnamehere (DharmaHelper) 1
Didn't vote: Captain Bunny Killer, jokreher, Roxy (note: Roxy hadn't been replaced yet)

Linki, Gee DH, what a shitty attitude. I have been trying to give a shit, but with that comment, i officially give up

[Kate]

Nobody gave a shit when I thought this voting order was right, coming up with a different theory for nobody to give a shit about is not going to change anything.

Well if you think about why your facts were wrong to begin with, we may get somewhere.

[DharmaHelper]

[Tangrowth]

FYI

Those aforementioned voting orders from FH by the way are correct except for just the one on Day 4 from Trice ((7. triceratops (Mr. Droopy) 4) which has already been pointed out was Vomps.

And I must say thanks to FH for keeping track of them.

[Epignosis]

I am more interested in the night posts than the lynch votes, to be honest. I mean, wouldn't an experienced group of evil people deliberately NOT vote in unison?

[DharmaHelper]

I was going to say "Just read back and cross referenced Day 3/Day 4 with the lists FH provided and they seem legit"

But MP said that.

[reywaS]

When did Sheldon Cooper suddenly join in?

What a crazy start to the day...

[DharmaHelper]

So Kate/Boats/Aces is still legit. And LT is still legit. So, uhm. Sure.

[Dom]

So Kate/Boats/Aces is still legit. And LT is still legit. So, uhm. Sure.

So, are you trying to say tha tyou think Kate/Boats/Aces are on a team togethr?

[S~V~S]

Yeah, but based on thread context, I think one or two of those are civs.

So

I don't know if you used this data, too, there was a mistake here as well on Day Two~ this lynch may have been more telling than the last two as to dispersal, especially Day three when the two big vote getters both flipped civ, it did not really matter where the baddies voted that day.

Boomslang agrees that the third person, when done consistently, can be an interesting character trait. However, if Vomp's vote was forced, then Rabbit may be civ, so I'm getting on the bea bandwagon.

RIPIYWG axxon and Illy!

I didn't really have much of a read yet on either of you.

So here's a breakdown of the voting order with the tally of votes accrued:
1. axxon (LoRab) 1
2. Epignosis (The Truth) 1
3. triceratops (SVS) 1
4. The Truth (SVS) 2
5. Vompatti (rabbit) 1
6. DH (rabbit) 2
7. jokreher (bea) 1
8. Aces (rabbit) 3
9. Kate (bea) 2
10. LT (bea) 3
11. SVS (bea) 4
12. LoRab (triceratops) 1
13. Illyria (chaindeath) 1
14. chaindeath (rabbit) 4
15. Mr. Droopy (rabbit) 5
16. insertnamehere (bea) 5
17. Flyin' High (bea) 6
18. DisgruntledPorcupine (bea) 7
19. Captain Bunny Killer (rabbit) 6
20. rabbit (bea) 8
21.Boomslang (rabbit) 7
Didn't vote: bea, Benthayer, birdwithteeth, boatsboatsboats, reywaS, and Roxy

Since bea was a baddie, there's a chance her teammates may have tried to save her by adding votes onto rabbit in yesterday's lynch. Based on timing, I plan to take a closer look at Captain Bunny Killer and Boomslang. Also chaindeath and Mr. Droopy.

[DharmaHelper]

Actually, bumping Trice out of the equation means the new group is

"BWT, FH, Rabbit"

6. BWT (3rd Vote for Droopy)
8. Rabbit (5th Vote For Droopy)
10. FH (6th Vote For Droopy)

13. Rabbit (11th Vote for Vomp)
16. FH (13th Vote for Vomp)
17. BWT (14th Vote for Vomp)

Dunno. Discuss?

Linki@ Dom I think it's certainly a possibility. I think the closeness of their votes each time warrants scrutiny. If Rey is right and looking at the votes will lead to catching a baddie, then looking at the group of votes might lead to catching a group of baddies.

[Dom]

Actually, bumping Trice out of the equation means the new group is

"BWT, FH, Rabbit"

6. BWT (3rd Vote for Droopy)
8. Rabbit (5th Vote For Droopy)
10. FH (6th Vote For Droopy)

13. Rabbit (11th Vote for Vomp)
16. FH (13th Vote for Vomp)
17. BWT (14th Vote for Vomp)

Dunno. Discuss?

Linki@ Dom I think it's certainly a possibility. I think the closeness of their votes each time warrants scrutiny. If Rey is right and looking at the votes will lead to catching a baddie, then looking at the group of votes might lead to catching a group of baddies.

Are these just consecutive votes?
That could be... hours apart?

[timmer]

Hi all, give me until tomorrow please to read up and figure out everything! Glad to be here!

[birdwithteeth11]

Wait, so suddenly my name has been dropped into the Venn-diagram madness? What the hell is up with that one?

Yeah, I almost think you'd have to go back and check to see what the time was when each of us voted, and how far apart they were for it to start to mean something.

Give me that and I will respond to my name suddenly being tossed out into whatever is going on right now.

Linki: Welcome Timmer! Enjoy catching up on almost 35 pages!

[DharmaHelper]

Vomp Vote:

Vomp, for personal reaons, those being I've not had time to catch up at all. I have meetings till later this week. I will be sporadic at best till then.

I've gone back and re-read on DH, rabbit, and INH. Of those 3, INH strikes me as the most suspicious one, but my suspicions of Vomps will trump that for today. I feel better putting that one off rather than waiting on Vomps to maybe eventually say something that will change my mind. He still has yet to do that.

Votes Vompatti

Sorry for my complete lack of input today. I stayed home sick from work today and didn't really have the energy for mafia.

I didn't have the chance to read back on the people I'd planned to look at so I'm sticking with the Vomps suspicion--I hope this turns out better than the Droopy lynch.

*Votes Vompatti*

Rabbit @ 6:57pm EST
BWT @ 8:12pm EST
FH @ 8:19pm EST


1 hour 15 minutes between Rabbit and BWT
1 hour 22 minutes between rabbit and FH
7 minutes between FH and BWT

Droopy Vote

I have to leave for work in the next few minutes, and we've been so busy lately that I probably won't get a chance to vote while I'm there. Right now I am torn in between Vompatti and Droopy.

On the one hand, Vompatti keeps plugging away on the rabbit bandwagon (even with the quote from DH you posted, I'm not sure I fully buy your reasoning) and even voted for him for "personal reasons". That looks suspicious enough as it is.

On the other hand, Droopy has been very inconsistent, I'm not buying his voting for rabbit just for his "aggressiveness" or however it was he worded it. A lot of what he's been saying seems like a last-ditch attempt to save himself, and I think it's entirely possible he could be one of bea's teammates.

While I'm fine with either option, I originally felt and still feel more strongly about Droopy, so he is getting my vote this time.

Votes Droopy

Well, if Droopy ends up lynched + bad today we will probably look more closely at that theory, rabbit

I agree. Droopy.

Haha, I actually totally see where you're coming from about the way I'm feeling wishy-washy about Mr. Droopy, Aces. But I am never 100% certain (unless I have information).

I could probably go back through many games and pull quotes of myself being "unsure" about a player's alignment while being civvie myself.

I feel like there's enough points of evidence to support Mr. Droopy being a baddie. The tiny part in my brain that is uncertain is knowing this is his first game ever and that we may be seeing a true case of a newbie civvie freakout.

But meh, I've been discussing this all day. Gonna put my vote where my mouth is and *vote Mr. Droopy*

BWT @ 1:45pm EST
Rabbit @ 2:53pm EST
FH @ 2:55pm EST

1 hour and 8 minutes between BWT and Rabbit
1 hour and 10 minutes between BWT and FH
2 minutes between FH and Rabbit

[DharmaHelper]

From that, I guess this is the most interesting bit:

7 minutes between FH and BWT
2 minutes between FH and Rabbit

Even though all 6 votes are less than 2 hours apart, FH votes within minutes of both Rabbit and BWT (on two separate occasions, I'll grant you.)

So the link is there I guess. Again, I'm not anticipating much to come out of this but I'll keep at it anyway.

[triceratopzeuhl]

Wait, so suddenly my name has been dropped into the Venn-diagram madness? What the hell is up with that one?

I don't think anybody really knows

[triceratopzeuhl]

[S~V~S]

From that, I guess this is the most interesting bit:

7 minutes between FH and BWT
2 minutes between FH and Rabbit

Even though all 6 votes are less than 2 hours apart, FH votes within minutes of both Rabbit and BWT (on two separate occasions, I'll grant you.)

So the link is there I guess. Again, I'm not anticipating much to come out of this but I'll keep at it anyway.

i have not forgotten that i owe you a hat-eating from Spongebob.

[DharmaHelper]

So forget Trice, that means Rabbit is also in a voting group with The Truth on both votes..

[DharmaHelper]

So forget Trice, that means Rabbit is also in a voting group with The Truth on both votes..

Ignore that. I'm wrong.

[Dom]

So forget Trice, that means Rabbit is also in a voting group with The Truth on both votes..

[DharmaHelper]

Also ignore the BWT link. I was wrong about that as well.

[DharmaHelper]

I dunno, like i said, I'm gassed out trying to swim against the current here, so whatever happens happens

[birdwithteeth11]

The Vomps one I felt genuinely suspicious about. He was posting a lot of things that did not appear civvie-like to me (to the point where it's still hard to believe he was a civvie). As for Droopy, I could have stuck with Vompatti, but as I mentioned, 1) I had to leave for work shortly after, so that cut into my time to sit an analyze the entire situation and 2) I had legitimate reasons to feel more strongly about Droopy at that point.

Anything else that bothers you with it?

Tons and tons of linki from setting this aside for a few minutes: Okay......nevermind then.....I guess?

[DharmaHelper]

Hold on I'm trying to rework what I have now that Trice is out and it's fuckin' hard because I'm pissed off and tired at the same time so logical thought is at a low point.

[DharmaHelper]

Droopy Votes In Order:

5. The Truth (2nd Vote for Droopy)
6. BWT (3rd Vote for Droopy)
8. Rabbit (4th Vote For Droopy)
10. FH (5th Vote For Droopy)
11. LT (6th Vote For Droopy)
12. Aces (7th Vote For Droopy)
13. Boats (8th Vote for Droopy)
16. Kate (9th Vote For Droopy)
18. Chaindeath (10th Vote for Droopy)

Vomp Votes In Order:

2. LittleTiger (2nd Vote for Vomp)
3. Boats (3rd Vote for Vomp)
4. Aces (4th Vote for Vomp)
6. Kate (6th Vote for Vomp)
12. The Truth (10th Vote for Vomp)
13. Rabbit (11th Vote for Vomp)
16. FH (12th Vote for Vomp)
17. BWT (13th Vote for Vomp)
18. Chaindeath (14th Vote for Vomp


So then BWT *Is* in a voting group with FH and Rabbit. and Rabbit *Is* in a voting group with The Truth...