The Search for Quin [END]

[Serge]

Eh, I don't like playing scum by coasting. If it's desperate to catch up, maybe I should've let myself be replaced.

When I say I have something going on I mean it. So I'm unsure what's desperate about my posts.

[Serge]

Good point, Daisy. I'm always wary of a low-posting scum, and that would make sense here. What feels desperate about Serge to you? I think if he was scum and trying to set up an alternate bandwagon, he'd go after a more easily lynchable target than me.

Or instead of setting up, I could've just coasted, made excuses, then bandwagoned to the end. I bet I won't get lynched that way.

[Serge]

I am truly very I wasn't able to keep my promise. I'll be reading now. Don't worry, I swear I'm town.

Hey Serge, no sweat. All I care about is hearing what you have to say. Even if your thoughts aren't fully formed or if you're not caught up yet. Any slight impressions you get when you look out over the thread would be hella cool right now.

Well, er, I've got bad news. I suspect you. You've played with sanmateo quite a lot, and I find it hard to believe that you found him town after all that. Also, I get the feeling you're on the sidelines in this game, omnipresent but working around the already established happenings like LC vs. Epignosis thing. Also your scum game is fresh to me since I read through Street Fighter.

I don't think your first is fair, or you've overestimated my history with sanmateo. I haven't played with him in well over a year, and even when he did play regularly it's not like we were in every game together all the time. We've played a handfull of games together years ago, but not to the point where reading him should be automatic. I will admit that I wanted him to be town this tame though, and I think that clouded my judgment.
I don't know how to respond to the second point other than to say I'm trying. I want to catch bad guys. Do you want to catch bad guys? I encourage you to entertain the idea that I might be town.
Your third point sounds like recency bias.

We've played a lot too and I honestly just don't feel you're town right now. But maybe it is recency bias, but we'll know when the game ends.

[nutella]

Idk anything about Sydney but I'm just trying to keep zeroing in on the most densely populous areas, and it looks like it's probably C yet again

[speedchuck]

I read through DDL's posts. I recommend doing the same. I'm gonna throw down a chart here.
Xs are suspicions
Vs are votes.
Os are defenses/townreads
Qs are questions
S is a shrug
The number with them tells what phase they were on. 0 is night 0. 1 is D1. 2 is N1. And so on. A little confusing, but necessary. CHART TIME!


MovingPictures07 - X1-X1-X1-X1-V1-X2
nutella - X1-X1-X1-V2-X2
Spacedaisy - X1
Sloonei - O1-O1-O1-X1
speedchuck -
NewTraditionalist -
Serge -
birdwithteeth11 -
Dom -

LC - X0-X0-X1-X1
Dr Wilgy - O1-
sanmateo - S2
Epi - S1-O2

A lot of these townreads, or heck, even scumreads, are weak and DDL backs off as he says them. I considered using lowercase to indicate weakness, but the chart is already hard enough to read.

NT was mentioned in relation to MP's vote for NT. DDL didn't like it. Granted, I wasn't a huge fan either.
Those with no mentions were technically a part of DDL's posts when he said stuff like "Everyone else is null" but I didn't include that.

I would appreciate everyone looking at DDL's sloon mentions, and sloon's treatement of DDL, and see if it looks more like DDL buddying and sloonei hunting or DDL defending and then distancing.

[Sloonei]

Ok so I still want to lynch one of Nutella or MP now that LC is dead.

I also like the idea of lynchig Serge though I personally am not fond of lynching inactives too early so I think Ill back down for now.

Others are either neutral or slight civ reads. Strongest civ read right now is probably Epi, Im liking his logical prpcesses. But I also put Epi on my "never 100% read as civ" list a long time ago and I dont intend to remove him now.

what do we all think of this stance? Epi had briefly discussed voting for Serge earlier due to his lack of content, and DDL sort of applies pressure but not really here. "I could vote for him, but on second thought nah." Nothing is accomplished by this sentence, and I can't make up my mind if it looks more like soft distancing or soft pressuring. It's the only mention I see of Serge in DDL's posts.

[Spacedaisy]

Jay mentioned high traffic tourist zones being the ones with the most tips called in on Quin. So I checked out a map of Sydney and I'm thinking C. Voting there.

Linki: I think distancing personally. I'm inclined to vote serge next based on the tone of his posts during the DDL lynch.

[Spacedaisy]

I read through DDL's posts. I recommend doing the same. I'm gonna throw down a chart here.
Xs are suspicions
Vs are votes.
Os are defenses/townreads
Qs are questions
S is a shrug
The number with them tells what phase they were on. 0 is night 0. 1 is D1. 2 is N1. And so on. A little confusing, but necessary. CHART TIME!


MovingPictures07 - X1-X1-X1-X1-V1-X2
nutella - X1-X1-X1-V2-X2
Spacedaisy - X1
Sloonei - O1-O1-O1-X1
speedchuck -
NewTraditionalist -
Serge -
birdwithteeth11 -
Dom -

LC - X0-X0-X1-X1
Dr Wilgy - O1-
sanmateo - S2
Epi - S1-O2

A lot of these townreads, or heck, even scumreads, are weak and DDL backs off as he says them. I considered using lowercase to indicate weakness, but the chart is already hard enough to read.

NT was mentioned in relation to MP's vote for NT. DDL didn't like it. Granted, I wasn't a huge fan either.
Those with no mentions were technically a part of DDL's posts when he said stuff like "Everyone else is null" but I didn't include that.

I would appreciate everyone looking at DDL's sloon mentions, and sloon's treatement of DDL, and see if it looks more like DDL buddying and sloonei hunting or DDL defending and then distancing.

I'll check this out in a bit here and get back to you speedchuck, don't want you to think I'm ignoring the request.

[Sloonei]

A look at Serge's post history reveals very little in relation to either of the lynched baddies. He showed up in earnest after sanmateo had been dealt with and at the height of the DDL bandwagon. His current position seems to be that I am next in line to be lynched, though I also believe he's expressed some suspicion of bwt and Dom.

I had some misgivings bout bwt earlier, and a look at sanmateo's history turned up this post which reads as a nervous scum over-explaining their decision to vote for an innocent townie. He cites "what people have said", placing the emphasis on the cases of others as the inspiration for his vote and giving it the feel of him maliciously piling on the bandwagon.

There's also this post in which he incriminates both DDL and bwt at the same time. I am not sure he would single out two (possibly his only two) partners like this in the same post so early in the game, but I won't rule it out completely for wifom reasons. Still, sanmateo's treatment of bwt makes me feel slightly better about him.

[Spacedaisy]

Please clarify, sanmateo's treatment of bwt makes you feel slightly better about bwt, or slightly better about serge? The majority of your post seemed to be addressing serge but your final sentence is unclear who it makes you feel better about. If I read that sentence alone I would assume you mean bwt, but in the larger context I am uncertain of which person you are talking about.

[Sloonei]

Serge's three most recent posts all confuse me.

Eh, I don't like playing scum by coasting. If it's desperate to catch up, maybe I should've let myself be replaced.

When I say I have something going on I mean it. So I'm unsure what's desperate about my posts.

what is that first line? why does he specify that he does not like to coast as scum? Is he implying that he's making an effort here because he's scum and coasting is undesirable? this feels too easy to be a scum slip, but it's not making a whole lot of sense as I'm looking at it.

Good point, Daisy. I'm always wary of a low-posting scum, and that would make sense here. What feels desperate about Serge to you? I think if he was scum and trying to set up an alternate bandwagon, he'd go after a more easily lynchable target than me.

Or instead of setting up, I could've just coasted, made excuses, then bandwagoned to the end. I bet I won't get lynched that way.

And then this. Seems to reflect more of the same attitude, but with a twinge of sarcasm? I can't tell what his point is here. I was providing my rationale for giving him a town read, but he seems to renounce everything I was saying so that he could once again reject the strategy of an easy-coasting scum game, a thing which no one is mentioning besides him, as far as I can tell (correct me if I'm wrong).

I am truly very I wasn't able to keep my promise. I'll be reading now. Don't worry, I swear I'm town.

Hey Serge, no sweat. All I care about is hearing what you have to say. Even if your thoughts aren't fully formed or if you're not caught up yet. Any slight impressions you get when you look out over the thread would be hella cool right now.

Well, er, I've got bad news. I suspect you. You've played with sanmateo quite a lot, and I find it hard to believe that you found him town after all that. Also, I get the feeling you're on the sidelines in this game, omnipresent but working around the already established happenings like LC vs. Epignosis thing. Also your scum game is fresh to me since I read through Street Fighter.

I don't think your first is fair, or you've overestimated my history with sanmateo. I haven't played with him in well over a year, and even when he did play regularly it's not like we were in every game together all the time. We've played a handfull of games together years ago, but not to the point where reading him should be automatic. I will admit that I wanted him to be town this tame though, and I think that clouded my judgment.
I don't know how to respond to the second point other than to say I'm trying. I want to catch bad guys. Do you want to catch bad guys? I encourage you to entertain the idea that I might be town.
Your third point sounds like recency bias.

We've played a lot too and I honestly just don't feel you're town right now. But maybe it is recency bias, but we'll know when the game ends.

Have we played together a lot, Serge? I know we have some experience together, but I can profess myself to be an expert on Serge. This also feels like a way of brushing over any need to substantiate his suspicion against me. I pressed him to explain his reasoning in more detail, but instead he cited past experience with me and then gave a suggestive wink which hints at a lack of real intrigue to solve the question of my alignment in-game. we could work on figuring out my alignment right now, Serge, hence the interrogation. Or perhaps you already know that I'm not scum.

[Sloonei]

Please clarify, sanmateo's treatment of bwt makes you feel slightly better about bwt, or slightly better about serge? The majority of your post seemed to be addressing serge but your final sentence is unclear who it makes you feel better about. If I read that sentence alone I would assume you mean bwt, but in the larger context I am uncertain of which person you are talking about.

The first paragraph is about Serge, the second and third about bwt. Serge expressed suspicion of bwt, so after looking at Serge I turned my attention to bwt.

[Spacedaisy]

ok, thank you. I think his not a scum coasting kind of player posts are kind of in response to me saying I could see it being him because he was on of the inactive players and I was leaning towards thinking an inactive might be the third. But my real reason for suspecting him is more about how he came in here when it's pretty much do or die for the last baddie and is posting like crazy, trying to convince us of you. Who I have also suspected in the past cycle.

I haven't yet looked at speedchuck's request, but I would like to know who his top suspects are currently?

[speedchuck]

speedchuck
MovingPictures07
Nutella
NewTraditionalist
birdwithteeth11
Dom
Spacedaisy
Sloonei
Serge

GTH readlist for you spacedaisy. I actually feel better about you and Sloonei than this readlist showed, but I'm more paranoid about you guys. I'm going to try to substantiate these reads before Day 4 end. Assuming scum does the smart thing and kills MP tonight instead of me.

[speedchuck]

speedchuck
MovingPictures07
Nutella
NewTraditionalist
birdwithteeth11
Dom
Spacedaisy
Sloonei
Serge

If you wanted color

[Spacedaisy]

thanks speedchuck.

[Tangrowth]

I have to say that doing this in a forum is really difficult for me compared to sitting around a table. I really have no idea what to look for.

Dude, you are just fine. Took me 5 games before I even knew what the hell I was doing, and took 5 years before I felt I was any decent at this. I still doubt it, but yeah. I'd say everyone just continually develops their own style based on experience.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Night 3 ends.

Following their statistical analysis of the tips they were getting, the team advanced into the heart of Sydney downtown in search of Quin. Well, most of them did anyway.
One of them felt a bit under the weather and decided to take the rest of the hunt off.

Spoiler: show

speedchuck has been killed. He was:

Spoiler: show

Vanilla civilian. Vomit cat.

Day 4 begins and will last 48 hours.

[Spacedaisy]

That was an unexpected kill...

[Tangrowth]

RIP speedchuck. You put forward a great effort, thank you.

Having just caught up quickly here and not done any additional digging beyond what you all have said and what I've done before now, here's where I'm currently at:

Spacedaisy

birdwithteeth11
nutella
Sloonei

NewTraditionalist

Dom

Serge

It's going to be a very busy weekend for me, but I'll force myself to be around more this cycle.

[Sloonei]

Voting for Serge.

[Sloonei]

MP looks great for catching sanmateo and driving home the bandewagon against him with Epi.
Daisy looks great for being the first (or one of the first, independently) to point out the sanmateo/DDL relationship.
Birdwithteeth looks good based on some of sanmateo's posts about him early in the game.
I'll have to look into nutella's relationship with DDL and sanmateo more closely, but I vaguely recall seeing something that made her look good.

Dom was on the DDL bandwagon, but he was a latecomer and was not particularly vocal.
Likewise for Serge, but he also receieved some iffy treatment from DDL earlier.
NT is

[Spacedaisy]

What are your thoughts on the speedchuck kill? I was expecting MP to die so it has surprised me.

[Sloonei]

What are your thoughts on the speedchuck kill? I was expecting MP to die so it has surprised me.

I also expected MP to die, but nightkill analysis is not my bag. Maybe they were just more afraid of speedchuck because of MP's schedule or something. I don't think either of them were getting any votes from anyone.

[nutella]

RIP speedchuck.

[Sloonei]

RIP speedchuck.

Who you gonna vote for?

[nutella]

RIP speedchuck.

Who you gonna vote for?

Most likely Serge. I concur with the notion that he's a probable candidate. Looking forward to seeing his responses to your recent posts.

[nutella]

Hold up guys. Check out what I found.



gg y'all. wasn't in sydney at all but in the ice cream place near my office here in portland

[Sloonei]

That salty bastard

[Sloonei]

It's been too long without any posts, THE GAME would have blown all our heads off by now. Have a rainbow:
MovingPictures
Spacedaisy

birdwithteeth
Nutella

NewTraditionalist

Dom
Serge

[Sloonei]

What do people think of Dom?

[Tangrowth]

What are your thoughts on the speedchuck kill? I was expecting MP to die so it has surprised me.

I also expected MP to die, but nightkill analysis is not my bag. Maybe they were just more afraid of speedchuck because of MP's schedule or something. I don't think either of them were getting any votes from anyone.

I'm frankly shocked I'm cleared/townread this much and still alive. It almost never happens in either regard, especially because I tend to attract a ton of suspicion, let alone both simultaneously.

[Tangrowth]

Hold up guys. Check out what I found.

Spoiler: show

gg y'all. wasn't in sydney at all but in the ice cream place near my office here in portland

[Tangrowth]

What do people think of Dom?

I have practically no read on him. He's made very little impression on me this game, which is certainly unusual. I can't really get anything other than null out of his extant content -- the most notable thing in his ISO/vote history is the suspicion of DDL but it could just as easily have been a brazen bus as it was a relatively uninvolved/uninvested townie expressing solid agreement with what he had seen.

[Tangrowth]

Here's the thing with this game right now. We're definitely on a good track, but we potentially run the risk of blowing it with the complacent pace and consensus suspects. They've worked out really well thus far because we caught sanmateo red handed and managed to tip the game heavily in our favor, but right now I'm feeling like 80% confident the last mafia is Serge and we've won the game and 20% paranoid as fuck that we have an unlikely/somewhat consensus townie third and/or fourth scum person up in here.

Regarding the existence of three or four scum members, I highly doubt there are four, but if there are just three I do also start to worry about a third party role. I'd like to think there's only 3 scum and no 3P given the fact that this is a Heist (and thus the game should be simplistic) and Jay is very meticulous regarding balance, but I'm not super confident in asserting that as the setup here, which is a bit worrisome.

[Tangrowth]

I'm almost certainly going to vote Serge today, but it's prudent that we prepare for the worst case scenario that he flips town and we have to proceed into murkier waters. I need to hear more from NT and Dom. I'll throw a vote on Dom for now to get him to say more things.

[Quin]

Hold up guys. Check out what I found.



gg y'all. wasn't in sydney at all but in the ice cream place near my office here in portland

we were gonna save this revelation for the sequel but ok

[Epignosis]

There's a house with no door...

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I know where Quin is

Spoiler: show

In your hearts.

[Dom]

k

who didn't want to lynch ddl tho

[Tangrowth]

k

who didn't want to lynch ddl tho

Do you think that his teammate wouldn't have bussed him? Why?

[Sloonei]

Dom, what do you think of Serge?
Serge, what do you think of Dom?

[Serge]

I am town :P

Just lynch me then get over with it.

[Serge]

It's a repeat of my last few games here. I know it's my fault but it's frustrating getting lynched because of how you're all unfamiliar with me so you pick me. Not your fault, I just can't seem to get a good way to catch up on games on my phone.

I honestly think you should all still look into Sloonei once I flip.

Good luck!

[Sloonei]

It's a repeat of my last few games here. I know it's my fault but it's frustrating getting lynched because of how you're all unfamiliar with me so you pick me. Not your fault, I just can't seem to get a good way to catch up on games on my phone.

I honestly think you should all still look into Sloonei once I flip.

Good luck!

You have plenty of time and room to change our minds. Also, it's not a you thing right now, it's a process of elimination thing. It's possible someone like daisy or mp is fooling us all (or me, I don't get why you're the only one questioning me), but from where I stand it appears most likely that you, Dom, or NT is (hopefully) the last scum.

This post does read as earnest to me though. I once again feel like there'd be more fight in you if you were scum. I may change my vote to Dom, as he's continued to do nothing but fan the flames of the already-existing bandwagons today. It would be nice to hear from literally anybody.

[Sloonei]

I'm doing it! Changed my vote to Dom.

[Tangrowth]

Sigh. Serge sounds genuine.

[Tangrowth]

Sloonei sounds like he's TMIing right now and his equivocation of Dom, NT, and Serge reads suspiciously to me. I also don't like how he threw in himself when saying Daisy, me, or he could be fooling us all; it read like a subconscious admission of guilt.

I could be tinfoiling, but I really am starting to think Sloonei's the last scum.

[Tangrowth]

I need other input on this.

[Tangrowth]

[mention]Spacedaisy[/mention] [mention]nutella[/mention] [mention]birdwithteeth11[/mention] [mention]NewTraditionalist[/mention] [mention]Dom[/mention]

Get in here and give your opinions. I really want to see if you all see what I am seeing right now. The fate of the game depends upon your participation. Less than 3 hours until deadline and the pace of this game is sluggish. We could still lose.