[ENDGAME] Seinfeld Mafia

[Nicol Bolas]

I finally show up and nobody has anything to say.

[Julinook]

Elaine who bad

[Nicol Bolas]

Elaine who bad

I can't tell you!

[Nicol Bolas]

[Nicol Bolas]

Spoiler: show

The lawyer snuffed old lady Costanza last night.

[November]

So you know who is bad, but it's in the vault?

[Echo]

Ms Benes. Are you suspecting me because you didn't like my method of analysis, or because I've been absent lately?

[Celeste]

I also keep forgetting Tim Whatley exists. That's not ideal.

Why do you think this is this the case? I feel like I've voiced my thoughts consistently?

I'll be voting Peterman. I don't feel bad about it, but there are a handful I can say that about. Let's see where this goes.

Stein, if time allows, I'll review those you asked about.

*opens Tim Whatley's post history*

*CTRL+F for "peterman"*

1 mention in entire history, and it's in this post with this vote. Naw.

Voting Tim Whatley.

Interesting. What should I say over his 7 posts that hasn't been said already?

Seinfeld, do you have a fascination with me. Why is this the case?

Do you think it would be unwise for power roles to claim at this point in the game?

Depends really. There are too many variables in play still.

@George Costanza Where are you and where is your head at? Why did you vote the Soup Nazi day 1 but not day 2? You did say you had a bad feeling about him.

Day 1 votes generally aren't really substantial or based on actual specific clues or content. I didn't feel good about the Newman bandwagon. I didn't vote for Newman.

I'm someone who goes by gut instincts a lot, and I felt Uncle Leo was wishy washy in his stances, as long as he didn't draw attention to himself or garner too much opposition and preferred following the bunch; insincere; not as vocal or skeptical as people should be on Day 2.

My opinion on him hasn't changed yet.

I'm noticing a trend of people who just didn't give a damn about their day one vote. How is this acceptable?

[Nicol Bolas]

Ms Benes. Are you suspecting me because you didn't like my method of analysis, or because I've been absent lately?

I'm suspecting you because of your ineptitude at eliminating the two-shot tracker.

Hi.

[November]

Do you want to be lynched, Elaine?

[Nicol Bolas]

Do you want to be lynched, Elaine?

Is that a serious question?

[Echo]

I'm suspecting you because of your ineptitude at eliminating the two-shot tracker.

Well, that's a flagrant lie.

[Nicol Bolas]

I'm suspecting you because of your ineptitude at eliminating the two-shot tracker.

Well, that's a flagrant lie.

What is my motive for lying?

[Echo]

Why don't you tell us?

[Nicol Bolas]

Why don't you tell us?

You're an imposter.

For example, for a lawyer, you aren't very good with your wording.

I'm suspecting you because of your ineptitude at eliminating the two-shot tracker.

Well, that's a flagrant lie.

The Mafia have eliminated no civilian power roles. Both of them are still alive. So you and your goons have done a piss poor job of getting rid of them. Saying, "Well, that's a flagrant lie" to the above statement means that the Mafia have done a good job eliminating the power roles.

You don't even know how to lawyer.

[Julinook]

lol I have to miss EOD sorry gang. Helping friend with studies.

/hypocrisy

[Nicol Bolas]

lol I have to miss EOD sorry gang. Helping friend with studies.

/hypocrisy

If you don't change your vote to Jackie Chiles, you are mafia. Mafia, Jerry.

[Echo]

Why don't you tell us?

You're an imposter.

For example, for a lawyer, you aren't very good with your wording.

I'm suspecting you because of your ineptitude at eliminating the two-shot tracker.

Well, that's a flagrant lie.

The Mafia have eliminated no civilian power roles. Both of them are still alive. So you and your goons have done a piss poor job of getting rid of them. Saying, "Well, that's a flagrant lie" to the above statement means that the Mafia have done a good job eliminating the power roles.

You don't even know how to lawyer.

The lie is that you tracked me and saw a murder.

[Nicol Bolas]

The lie is that you tracked me and saw a murder.

What is my motive for lying?

[Echo]

The lie is that you tracked me and saw a murder.

What is my motive for lying?

Presumably the same as your motive for lying the last two times you roleclaimed: to draw a nightkill.

[Paul Stevens]

If Elaine is telling the truth, we have a cut and dried case. If she's not, we at least get more intelligence from a Jackie flip than a Peterman flip. *votes Jackie*

[Julinook]

Just saw Elaine's claim. Elaine, give me the word "hard claim", and it's secure.

[Nicol Bolas]

Just saw Elaine's claim. Elaine, give me the word "hard claim", and it's secure.

I don't know what that means. I tracked no one Night 1. I tracked Johnnie Cochran Night 2. He killed Estelle.

I waited as long as I could to get as many interactions and as much information as possible. I also wanted to see if he would hint or claim vigilante since the host post was so vague. He didn't.

Book 'em Danno.

[Julinook]

A hard claim is a conclusive claim with a pledge that it's not cover-claim.

[Celeste]

I'm also speculative of Elaine' s claim. Ever hear the tale of the boy who cried wolf?

Linki - I guess we'll see.

[Julinook]

VOTE JACKIE CHILES YALL

[Echo]

You'll be lynching another Civ.

[Nicol Bolas]

A hard claim is a conclusive claim with a pledge that it's not cover-claim.

I did the fake (fake, get it Jerry? HA HA HA ....HA ) thing twice already trying to make the Mafia think I was covering. I'm still alive for it, because the Mafia are idiots!

I'm hoping Peterman is bad too, because the lawyer hasn't voted yet, and it looks like people voted and scrammed.

[Celeste]

I'm also speculative of Elaine' s claim. Ever hear the tale of the boy who cried wolf?

Linki - I guess we'll see.

Whoever this stranger is has a good point.

[Julinook]

You'll be lynching another Civ.

Who's bad?

[Julinook]

If Jackie is civilian Elaine is confirmed mafia. Lynch Jackie.

[Echo]

George Costanza, Frank Costanza... Elaine Benes.

[Julinook]

It's not LyLo, so all this move gets the mafia team (if Elaine is lying) is a push to LyLo with a confirmed mafia in place. That's not terrible for them, but she'd have no need -- unless Peterman is also mafia.

[Echo]

Well, hopefully we'll find out. *votes J Pederman*

[Julinook]

Looking at the matrix, there's a cop, tracker, killer, or blocker. Someone should have some information by now. Get it together people.

Evidence Elaine was prepping for this reveal (truthfully).

[Celeste]

It's not LyLo, so all this move gets the mafia team (if Elaine is lying) is a push to LyLo with a confirmed mafia in place. That's not terrible for them, but she'd have no need -- unless Peterman is also mafia.

If it's a claim for teammate save I'd be somewhat shocked, it feels too early for that.

[Julinook]

It's not LyLo, so all this move gets the mafia team (if Elaine is lying) is a push to LyLo with a confirmed mafia in place. That's not terrible for them, but she'd have no need -- unless Peterman is also mafia.

If it's a claim for teammate save I'd be somewhat shocked, it feels too early for that.

I don't think it's likely either. Hence my belief.

[Julinook]

Peterman left his vote on me. He can't survive with that vote.

Vote Jackie!

[Tangrowth]

Day 3 Vote Tally

Elaine Benes
0
No votes
Voters: None

Frank Costanza
0
No votes
Voters: None

George Costanza
0
No votes
Voters: None

George Steinbrenner
0
No votes
Voters: None

J Peterman
4
33%
Voters: Uncle Leo, George Steinbrenner, Jackie Chiles, The Soup Nazi

Jackie Chiles
4
33%
Voters: Jerry Seinfeld, Frank Costanza, Elaine Benes, Tim Whatley

Jerry Seinfeld
1
8%
Voters: J Peterman

The Soup Nazi
0
No votes
Voters: None

Tim Whatley [Kenny Bania]
0
No votes
Voters: None

Uncle Leo
1
8%
Voters: George Costanza

*UNVOTE*
0
No votes
Voters: None

*NO LYNCH*
0
No votes
Voters: None

The Doctor (hosts, deadies, non-players)
2
17%
Voters: MovingPictures07, DrWilgy
Total votes: 12

Missing votes: N/A

[Tangrowth]

Day 3

Spoiler: show

Jackie Chiles is outraged at the last-minute turn of events.



Jackie Chiles has been lynched.

He was Long Con and...

Spoiler: show

Vanilla Mafiaoso

It is now Night 3.

You have 24 hours to send in night actions.

[Nicol Bolas]

[Celeste]

That's what we needed right there.

[Julinook]

This was all I wanted to see. MVP and best role play.

[Julinook]

Interactive reads for days this night phase. My time will be limited so I need y'all to get on it.

[Paul Stevens]

VENGEANCE IS OURS! Estelle can rest in peace tonight. Now to get started on the rest of you hoodlums.

I honestly think George is a good target for the next lynch based on interaction reads with Jackie, and I'll tell you why:

George Costanza

Jackie Chiles
Cosmo Kramer
George Steinbrenner
Uncle Leo
Jerry Seinfeld
Jackie Chiles
Elaine Benes
The Soup Nazi
Estelle Costanza
Frank Costanza
Estelle Costanza
Jerry Seinfeld
Elaine Benes
Uncle Leo
J Peterman
Jackie Chiles

Pretty even number of positive and negative stuff here. In contrast to my previous two analyses, this amount of 'vouching' makes me feel suspicious. Mafia know who's not bad, and I could see him finding it easier to be honest when giving opinions, if he's bad. On the other hand, Estelle was his biggest suspect, so why night kill her in that case? Where would that leave him?

That bit about Estelle now reads like pure covering. George never said anything about Estelle being his "biggest suspect." That's exaggeration by a teammate, buried in a long post with analysis of several others. Then, he later starts distancing from George, calling him his own strongest suspect.

[Nicol Bolas]

I'm totally anti-Steinbrenner now.

Do you want to be lynched, Elaine?

So you know who is bad, but it's in the vault?

J Peterman
4
33%


Voters: Uncle Leo, George Steinbrenner, Jackie Chiles, The Soup Nazi

George Steinbrenner was here after I posted what I did, and instead of considering the dump I took in the thread, he only voiced aggression and a threat, and left his vote on Peterman. Maybe he thinks I don't have any grace.

[Julinook]

What's the deal with Jackie Chiles and Frank Costanza?



Jackie's comments

Spoiler: show

ASSMAN! I'LL GIVE HIM ASSMAN!

*votes Kramer*

Now where did this vote come from? You criticize George, Elaine, Estelle... but then vote Kramer with no real explanation! Not to mention that this is a follower vote on someone I'm feeling pretty good about. Highly questionable behavior.

On another not, rereading Estelle's three posts, I find it satisfying to read them in her roleplaying voice. It works despite her admission that she doesn't know how.

Change vote: Frank

Jackie threw some poop at Frank on Day 1 because of his random Kramer vote. It was a very easy accusation to render. If I lean any direction here it's slightly in Frank's favor, but it's not an inspired lean.

Agrees with my suspicion of Frank, but not my suspicion of Estelle on Day 1.

He TMI'd the Estelle read. Perhaps he also TMI'd the Frank read.

Spoiler: show

Well, sure it's unique, because anybody paying attention knows that what your uncle said wasn't true, including you, since you could have tied it up. If I said I liked men but was a lesbian, that would be providing a unique perspective too, but would it be right? Would it be correct, Jerry?

This Benes woman is giving me fits, and not just because she's a Baltimore fan! Seems like she's picking a fight with Seinfeld just to pick a fight. Her argument has my head spinning. Big Stein's getting dizzy. Like riding on one of those carousels, trying to keep up. I never cared for those rides. Rollercoasters, those are okay. Very exhilarating. But a carousel just goes in circles, over and over and over. You never know when they're going to end. I can't figure out where the end of this argument is or where it's beginning either. She says Seinfeld is suspicious for appreciating input from his uncle, then she says he's bad because he voted for Newman. It's not making sense to me, I don't buy her conviction. But Big Stein doesn't see why a mobster would pick a fight like this either. Big Stein is confused, but he'll keep kicking!

I have to say that I find Mr Seinfeld's points about Ms Benes to far more convincing than this attack. This kind of latching-on to minutiae, accusation, and then hands-in-the-air confusion is the kind of base fearmongering that I expect to see from the Mafia. 5 out of 5 for roleplay though!

My top picks for lynch today: Steinbrenner, Frank Costanza, and... let's go with George as a distant third, because I haven't had a good feeling about that guy yet.

He listed Frank alongside Steinbrenner and George as preferred lynch options for Day 2. It isn't clear why.

Color-coded stances analysis

He noted that Frank consistently spoke ill of George, and separately in the Steinbrenner analysis he noted that Big Stein's Frank read had shifted frequently. One minor thing I draw from this:

I don't think the remaining mafia are Frank and Steinbrenner. I doubt Jackie would have tied his teammates together needlessly in this manner.

The specific four names he decided to focus on here align with the fake suspicions he'd stated previously.

Spoiler: show

George Costanza, Frank Costanza... Elaine Benes.

Just before he was offed, Jackie threw these names into the thread when I asked "who is bad?". He was in serious danger of being lynched at this point, so anti-spew should be considered -- but I don't struggle to believe he has comfortably nestled a teammate in there (which would imply a Costanza in 99.9% of universes wherein that assumption holds).

=======================

Frank's comments

Spoiler: show

If Elaine is telling the truth, we have a cut and dried case. If she's not, we at least get more intelligence from a Jackie flip than a Peterman flip. *votes Jackie*

Frank didn't mention Jackie a single time, as far as I can see, in this game until after Elaine claimed her tracking snare against him. Considering Jackie was vocally anti-Frank across multiple phases, this concerns me. It isn't uncommon for distancing to be a one-sided affair like this, because a mafioso being accused by a teammate has no internal fire to respond to those accusations -- their motives are already understood. It's harder to make a priority of that than it is to respond to critical civilians (as seen for example with Frank's consistent willingness to respond to my accusations).

This isn't ideal.

=======================

Conclusion

I don't think this does Frank any favors, and the last point concerns me considerably.

[Spooky Ghost]

VENGEANCE IS OURS! Estelle can rest in peace tonight. Now to get started on the rest of you hoodlums.

I honestly think George is a good target for the next lynch based on interaction reads with Jackie, and I'll tell you why:

George Costanza

Jackie Chiles
Cosmo Kramer
George Steinbrenner
Uncle Leo
Jerry Seinfeld
Jackie Chiles
Elaine Benes
The Soup Nazi
Estelle Costanza
Frank Costanza
Estelle Costanza
Jerry Seinfeld
Elaine Benes
Uncle Leo
J Peterman
Jackie Chiles

Pretty even number of positive and negative stuff here. In contrast to my previous two analyses, this amount of 'vouching' makes me feel suspicious. Mafia know who's not bad, and I could see him finding it easier to be honest when giving opinions, if he's bad. On the other hand, Estelle was his biggest suspect, so why night kill her in that case? Where would that leave him?

That bit about Estelle now reads like pure covering. George never said anything about Estelle being his "biggest suspect." That's exaggeration by a teammate, buried in a long post with analysis of several others. Then, he later starts distancing from George, calling him his own strongest suspect.

Exaggeration by a team mate??

Now that I've gained a little bit of perspective back, I realize the Soup Nazi's been knocked down a few rungs on the suspect list, especially by Jerry and Uncle Leo.

Of those remaining, I hate to say it, but my gut says my son. It's just the kind of sick, twisted thing he'd do after putting her on his baddie list, especially after providing no reason. She was a suspect he couldn't defend if he got asked, so he knocked her off to avoid being asked about her. And he was even the last one seen at her bedside!

[Chuck]

You can probably tell I wasn't around for EoD by the fact that I didn't even close my restaurant. I told that no good cousin of mine Hassan to take care of it!

I would have reacted to the events, otherwise. Though not sure how I feel about women having power, but hey, America! The 90s!

[Julinook]

What's the deal with Jackie Chiles and George Costanza?




Jackie's comments

Spoiler: show

It was my understanding that George Costanza poisoned his fiancée with envelope glue. Despicable, degenerate, deplorable! He'll get my vote.

Jackie placed an early Day 1 poop vote on George.

Spoiler: show

Jackie has been quiet.

Just catching up now, Mr Costanza. Sorry for my absence, but in Real Life I was hospitalized with a chest infection last night. I'm home now, and getting right back to business.

Jackie was gracious in his reception of George's little prod here. This exchange is a bit of a pinger.

Color-coded stances analysis

Jackie had a lot more to say about George than the other three people he stuck in this pile. He threw shade for George's history for "vouching", suggesting it may be indicative of TMI. It's plausible that Jackie himself was engaging in TMI here if George is his teammate. Relating to the point made by Frank, the portion about the Estelle kill is a little bizarre. I find myself wondering if this was an intentional dropping left by Jackie Con as a distraction, because it's really bad distancing if that's what it really is.*****

Spoiler: show

No problem, Mr Seinfeld. I used the time I had, and I had to stop. Just got home from the office, and I'm going to get back to it.

George Costanza looks the worst from my analysis so far.

He reinforces that George was the worst look in his analysis.

Spoiler: show

George Costanza, Frank Costanza... Elaine Benes.

His fake legacy mafia reads included both Costanzas and Elaine. If he stuck a teammate in here, it'd have to be a Costanza unless you're inclined to tinfoil on Elaine to the point of needing a restraint jacket. It's not necessarily true that he included a teammate.

===============

George's comments

Spoiler: show

It was my understanding that George Costanza poisoned his fiancée with envelope glue. Despicable, degenerate, deplorable! He'll get my vote.

Oh come on! Be sensible.

and since when did we ever trust an attorney

This turned into role play banter.

Spoiler: show

I'm feeling good about you people
Kramer
George Steinbrenner
Uncle Leo
Jerry
Jackie

I got bad feelings about you people
Elaine
The Soup Nazi
Estelle
Dad

I got no feelings about the rest of ya.

He felt good about Jackie on Day 1. I don't fault him for that, but here it is for analytic completeness.

Spoiler: show

what is this even.

You know, I did think it was rather farfetched that all four main characters of the show (George, Seinfeld, Elaine and Kramer) would RANDOMLY be picked as town. Kramer was town, I'm town, pretty sure I have good feelings about Jerry...so Elaine, as someone who roleclaimed and wasn't night killed, what's your deal?

Sure Estelle is dead. Yes, I felt peculiar about her. No, I didn't vote for her at any time. Suspicion arises. Everyone is suspicious at some point.

Jackie was a lot more vocal, and when he was, I had good feelings about him. He disappeared, he missed voting. I questioned it. What's up with that? How is it random? I liked the way Jackie was talking, I didn't like the direction Estelle was headed. I'm allowed to make judgement calls based on how I see them.

The green stuff isn't related to Jackie, but this is a good place talk about this separately. It's obvious that George's assertion is fallacious, and I'd expect any civilian to understand that. He said it anyway. I wonder if he is right, and he knows he is right because of his own alignment.

The orange stuff relates to Jackie. He explained his initial positive read on Jackie and his later prod about his having gone quiet. This was in response to accusations leveled upon him by Elaine. Apart from the fallacious green stuff, he was in a defensive posture here. I don't know that I like his tone.

Spoiler: show

Jerry Seinfeld
The Soup Nazi
Jackie Chiles
Uncle Leo
George Costanza
Tim Whatley
Frank Costanza
Elaine Benes
J. Peterman

I'd like to know what Jackie did to earn him a high spot on your list.

I'm not jealous or anything. Why would I be jealous?

George questioned Mr. Steinbrenner about his positive read on Jackie. It's a fair enough question in a vacuum, though I find myself wondering why I wasn't asked the same thing -- I also had Jackie in the green zone.

Spoiler: show

No problem, Mr Seinfeld. I used the time I had, and I had to stop. Just got home from the office, and I'm going to get back to it.

George Costanza looks the worst from my analysis so far.

Care to elaborate, Jackie? Perhaps I can ease your concerns if I had more content to go by and address your issues.

Well this is eloquent and congenial for a guy answering an accusation from someone he has expressed uncertainty about (as evidenced in the prior point re: Steinbrenner).

===============

Conclusion


I had more negative to say about George than positive. I am wary of the point marked with ***** though. He'd be an easy fall guy.