Pirate Mafia [END GAME]

[Tangrowth]

Aw, I was driving home from work. Now I have to help wife with dinner and go to church and stuff. Maybe next time guys.

I might do a GTH catch-up post later

Do it.

[dunya]

i feel like i'm going against all my principles by doing this btw. I need analysis and time to form concrete reads. This rush and gun to head is not my style.

I empathize completely. That's the point of the exercise though. Get out of your comfort zone, dunya.

i don't know how correct my gun to head reads are.

[Spacedaisy]

i realized i wasn't quoting, i'll go back and clarify later

Not necessary, I'll summarize once we're complete.

thanks, i love you

Careful, I don't share.

[Tangrowth]

Anyone else who wants to provide GTH reads should do so, even if it's more ideal to do them in this context.

Thanks for participating, folks, and to Daisy for suggesting it. Let me whip out Excel and post a summary, then I really need to get back to work.

[Kylemii]

i realized i wasn't quoting, i'll go back and clarify later

Not necessary, I'll summarize once we're complete.

thanks, i love you

Careful, I don't share.

caffeine D:

[dunya]

i realized i wasn't quoting, i'll go back and clarify later

Not necessary, I'll summarize once we're complete.

thanks, i love you

Careful, I don't share.

feisty. I like it

[Tangrowth]

i feel like i'm going against all my principles by doing this btw. I need analysis and time to form concrete reads. This rush and gun to head is not my style.

I empathize completely. That's the point of the exercise though. Get out of your comfort zone, dunya.

i don't know how correct my gun to head reads are.

Oh, I'm still not even familiar with half the thread content except for those ISOs I very quickly dug through, but that's GTH for you. Forces everyone to take a stance. It not only can be informative later when hunting but also can help people figure out how they really feel about everyone else in the moment. Always gets me to do some soul searching as to why since there's typically at least one of my own reads that surprises me.

[Tangrowth]

i realized i wasn't quoting, i'll go back and clarify later

Not necessary, I'll summarize once we're complete.

thanks, i love you

Careful, I don't share.

[Tangrowth]

Alright, be right back. #Excelnerd

[Kylemii]

i like these. the guns eat head thing. kinda forces me to rethink my preconceived notions

[speedchuck]

Dragon D. Luffy TOWN
dunya TOWN
Kylemii SCUM
Long Con SCUM
MovingPictures07 SCUM
NewTraditionalist SCUM
Quin TOWN
sig TOWN
Spacedaisy TOWN
SpankGangsta SCUM
speedchuck TOWN

Wow I feel like those are all terrible. Made me realize I actually feel decent about Quin after the lynch. Gutfeel at least.

[dunya]

jesus, MP has 163 posts itt now?!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Kylemii]

is it still common practice to bold your votes or is that not a thing anymore

[speedchuck]

jesus, MP has 163 posts itt now?!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He had like 60 before he came into the thread today.

[speedchuck]

is it still common practice to bold your votes or is that not a thing anymore

It's a good idea but kinda mitigated by the use of lynch polls

[Quin]

jesus, MP has 163 posts itt now?!!!!!!!!!!!!!

he must be having a bad day.

[dunya]

is it still common practice to bold your votes or is that not a thing anymore

i miss those days. when you had to vote itt not a poll. So much confusion. So much awesomeness.

[dunya]

I'm a little burnt out from doing detective work right now and going into MP/ Kyle / Quin / the non-posters. It's past 12am here. I'll do some more digging tomorrow before night ends.

[Spacedaisy]

Get some rest dunya, thanks for doing gth reads with us!

[Tangrowth]

speedchuck, I'll add yours to the spreadsheet even though you weren't here in spirit. Thanks for providing them. Working on it now.

[dunya]

and also, I'll try to address individual issues raised against me (that weren't previously raised until end of day 1--so I have to find out what they are).

[Kylemii]

is it still common practice to bold your votes or is that not a thing anymore

It's a good idea but kinda mitigated by the use of lynch polls

the lynch poll doesn't record past vote placements or timing which. making the votes stick out is incredibly important, without it this could take hours. :\ i really don't see why doing both would go out of fashion, it used to be a requirement, iirc.

how about this, can everyone please write in a post who they voted for, and at what time that vote came in in relative to the day's end? Please? i'll put it together i just need the data

I voted for MP 2 hours and 15 minutes before the end of day

[Kylemii]

pleapleapleapleaseplease?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Wow that sucks.

Sorry Wilgy.

This is what happened, guys: I wasn't feeling very sure on either the Quin or the MP lynch. And don't even get me staretd on NT because I despise lynches on inactives.

So I saw someone mentioned they wanted Wilgy to be punished for his posting. I didn't have an opinion on him at all. But having seen CFDs work in the past, I thought "why not?" and tried to push one on him. Maybe it could reveal us something. I dunno.

It didn't work though.

Though it might have revealed something, from what I'm seeing (I'm not fully caught up)

[Tangrowth]

GTH Exercise -- Night 1 -- Results

Spoiler: show

Alright folks, here are the results from the GTH exercise.

[speedchuck]

It seems the towniest thing to do is not be here for the latter half of the day. Thanks GTH reads.

[Spacedaisy]

Wow that sucks.

Sorry Wilgy.

This is what happened, guys: I wasn't feeling very sure on either the Quin or the MP lynch. And don't even get me staretd on NT because I despise lynches on inactives.

So I saw someone mentioned they wanted Wilgy to be punished for his posting. I didn't have an opinion on him at all. But having seen CFDs work in the past, I thought "why not?" and tried to push one on him. Maybe it could reveal us something. I dunno.

It didn't work though.

Though it might have revealed something, from what I'm seeing (I'm not fully caught up)

Want to post a list of GTH reads for us?

[dunya]

is it still common practice to bold your votes or is that not a thing anymore

It's a good idea but kinda mitigated by the use of lynch polls

the lynch poll doesn't record past vote placements or timing which. making the votes stick out is incredibly important, without it this could take hours. :\ i really don't see why doing both would go out of fashion, it used to be a requirement, iirc.

how about this, can everyone please write in a post who they voted for, and at what time that vote came in in relative to the day's end? Please? i'll put it together i just need the data

I voted for MP 2 hours and 15 minutes before the end of day

this bothered me a lot initially. still does. a huge part of info gathering is factoring in unvotes and how people choose their votes and WHEN they vote and who to (where the vote tally is at the time of their vote, see the switches, see the wagons as they form). I was kinda surprised about how they did vote counts at the syndicate. it's easier, but a little harder to get info from those votes and see voting patterns further than EOD.

[dunya]

i meant easier to count the votes. that's the only benefit I see.

[Kylemii]

is it still common practice to bold your votes or is that not a thing anymore

It's a good idea but kinda mitigated by the use of lynch polls

the lynch poll doesn't record past vote placements or timing which. making the votes stick out is incredibly important, without it this could take hours. :\ i really don't see why doing both would go out of fashion, it used to be a requirement, iirc.

how about this, can everyone please write in a post who they voted for, and at what time that vote came in in relative to the day's end? Please? i'll put it together i just need the data

I voted for MP 2 hours and 15 minutes before the end of day

this bothered me a lot initially. still does. a huge part of info gathering is factoring in unvotes and how people choose their votes and WHEN they vote and who to (where the vote tally is at the time of their vote, see the switches, see the wagons as they form). I was kinda surprised about how they did vote counts at the syndicate. it's easier, but a little harder to get info from those votes and see voting patterns further than EOD.

Does that mean you'll help?

[dunya]

is it still common practice to bold your votes or is that not a thing anymore

It's a good idea but kinda mitigated by the use of lynch polls

the lynch poll doesn't record past vote placements or timing which. making the votes stick out is incredibly important, without it this could take hours. :\ i really don't see why doing both would go out of fashion, it used to be a requirement, iirc.

how about this, can everyone please write in a post who they voted for, and at what time that vote came in in relative to the day's end? Please? i'll put it together i just need the data

I voted for MP 2 hours and 15 minutes before the end of day

this bothered me a lot initially. still does. a huge part of info gathering is factoring in unvotes and how people choose their votes and WHEN they vote and who to (where the vote tally is at the time of their vote, see the switches, see the wagons as they form). I was kinda surprised about how they did vote counts at the syndicate. it's easier, but a little harder to get info from those votes and see voting patterns further than EOD.

Does that mean you'll help?

absolutely. I'll post all my votes in bold hereon and if I unvote I'll bold unvote too before switching and voting in the poll.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Wow that sucks.

Sorry Wilgy.

This is what happened, guys: I wasn't feeling very sure on either the Quin or the MP lynch. And don't even get me staretd on NT because I despise lynches on inactives.

So I saw someone mentioned they wanted Wilgy to be punished for his posting. I didn't have an opinion on him at all. But having seen CFDs work in the past, I thought "why not?" and tried to push one on him. Maybe it could reveal us something. I dunno.

It didn't work though.

Though it might have revealed something, from what I'm seeing (I'm not fully caught up)

Want to post a list of GTH reads for us?

Once I catch up because now I'm 5 pages behind.

[Spacedaisy]

Speed, can you talk to me about your GTH read of LC as bad, and also of NT and Spankgangsta? My inclination with the no shows was to put them as good because I had nothing to go on and neutral reads aren't allowed, so I just said good and moved on. Why do you specifically feel LC is bad and what led you to the opposite tactic for the no shows?

linki: We used to have a poll mod that also tracked what order the votes were placed. So if you changed your vote it would change where your vote was in the order. but with the upgrade to the new site we have not been able to find a mod with that. We believe LT had coded the original one for that purpose and i just don't have that know how at the moment. Sorry to fail you guys. I am willing to bold my vote. I always announce them, just haven't been bolding them.

[dunya]

I will say while talking, I am also finding daddy's recent posts somewhat suspect.

When I responded to her awhile back I thought her post was a godsend of Civ light. Now I'm not so sure.

btw this hurt me a lot. i want to be a godsend of civ light

[Tangrowth]

GTH Exercise -- Night 1 -- Results

Spoiler: show

Alright folks, here are the results from the GTH exercise.

Jay introduced this concept to our site in the Economics game, which served as the first informal crossover of RYM folks over here. I've been doing some digging and I'm trying to find where Jay explains his findings so far on it. I remember when he introduced it in that game and said it was mostly experimental because he picked it from the Mafia Championship and just recently started using it. But I could have sworn there was a game where he summarized some trends he's found. I'll keep looking.

Anyway, some immediate thoughts I had:

- Kyle identified exactly 3 scum. I thought Jay said in a previous game he's found scum are more likely to be hypersensitive to the number of scum in a game so they're more likely to fit their reads to that restriction, which would be a bad look for Kyle. But I need to confirm this; I may be fuzzy on this because this was a while ago, and inevitably trends are just that, trends, and individual players and situations can shake these things up.

- I also recall Jay saying that there's a trend in baddies townreading more players than not, but in this case that would mean I'm bad, and that's not true. I need to confirm this as well though.

- LC and sig are the most consensus townread players. Based on what I'm familiar with at the start of the game, the LC consensus isn't surprising, but the sig one is. Note to self: need to look into this and see what people have said about sig itt.

- Apparently, I'm the least consensus townread. Thanks guys.

I'll mull over this some more and hopefully I can bring in what Jay and others have said about this exercise in the past. Inevitably it's limited and experimental, but hopefully it'll assist in some way in providing information or at least in generating meaningful discussion. Thanks for the participation.

But... now I've spent way too much time here when I should be working. I'll do some really quick digging on this because it'll bug me if I don't, then I'm out of here for a while.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

All this talk, although agreeable, reeks of TMI. If Wilgy comes up town, I'm betting dunya, Daisy, and/or Kyle knows Wilgy is town.

What is a TMI

[dunya]

All this talk, although agreeable, reeks of TMI. If Wilgy comes up town, I'm betting dunya, Daisy, and/or Kyle knows Wilgy is town.

What is a TMI

too much info

[Tangrowth]

TMI = too much info, it means I think that player is mafia and spewing their extra knowledge that someone is town because in a one-team mafia game they would know who all the town players are

[Kylemii]

is it still common practice to bold your votes or is that not a thing anymore

It's a good idea but kinda mitigated by the use of lynch polls

the lynch poll doesn't record past vote placements or timing which. making the votes stick out is incredibly important, without it this could take hours. :\ i really don't see why doing both would go out of fashion, it used to be a requirement, iirc.

how about this, can everyone please write in a post who they voted for, and at what time that vote came in in relative to the day's end? Please? i'll put it together i just need the data

I voted for MP 2 hours and 15 minutes before the end of day

this bothered me a lot initially. still does. a huge part of info gathering is factoring in unvotes and how people choose their votes and WHEN they vote and who to (where the vote tally is at the time of their vote, see the switches, see the wagons as they form). I was kinda surprised about how they did vote counts at the syndicate. it's easier, but a little harder to get info from those votes and see voting patterns further than EOD.

Does that mean you'll help?

absolutely. I'll post all my votes in bold hereon and if I unvote I'll bold unvote too before switching and voting in the poll.

I appreciate that a lot but I was hoping to get some players to post the times and subjects of their votes from the day 1 phase. Day 1 was 14 pages long and I don't think I can do this alone :x

If everyone looks through their own posts and submits the timing of their votes it'll make a 3 hour task into 10 16 minute tasks

[dunya]

have MP and Daisy ever been scum together in a mafia game?

[dunya]

is it still common practice to bold your votes or is that not a thing anymore

It's a good idea but kinda mitigated by the use of lynch polls

the lynch poll doesn't record past vote placements or timing which. making the votes stick out is incredibly important, without it this could take hours. :\ i really don't see why doing both would go out of fashion, it used to be a requirement, iirc.

how about this, can everyone please write in a post who they voted for, and at what time that vote came in in relative to the day's end? Please? i'll put it together i just need the data

I voted for MP 2 hours and 15 minutes before the end of day

this bothered me a lot initially. still does. a huge part of info gathering is factoring in unvotes and how people choose their votes and WHEN they vote and who to (where the vote tally is at the time of their vote, see the switches, see the wagons as they form). I was kinda surprised about how they did vote counts at the syndicate. it's easier, but a little harder to get info from those votes and see voting patterns further than EOD.

Does that mean you'll help?

absolutely. I'll post all my votes in bold hereon and if I unvote I'll bold unvote too before switching and voting in the poll.

I appreciate that a lot but I was hoping to get some players to post the times and subjects of their votes from the day 1 phase. Day 1 was 14 pages long and I don't think I can do this alone :x

If everyone looks through their own posts and submits the timing of their votes it'll make a 3 hour task into 10 16 minute tasks

a lot of people didn't post ITT who their last vote was for, though. That's the problem with that.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Basically, Rico was a legit lynch. With you, Wilgy...

Baby I'm soooooorrrrraaayy!
(I'm not sorry!)
Baby I'm soooooorrrrraaayy!
(I'm not sorry!)

This is one hell of an apologizing when Wilgy hasnt flipped.

[Kylemii]

- Kyle identified exactly 3 scum. I thought Jay said in a previous game he's found scum are more likely to be hypersensitive to the number of scum in a game so they're more likely to fit their reads to that restriction, which would be a bad look for Kyle. But I need to confirm this; I may be fuzzy on this because this was a while ago, and inevitably trends are just that, trends, and individual players and situations can shake these things up.

Hey don't you think that's kind of a stretch? You listed the names in chunks

[Spacedaisy]

have MP and Daisy ever been scum together in a mafia game?

Yes, once not on The Syndicate (American Horror Story on Hedville) and frankly we killed it even though we lost. And once on the site (Romance of the Three Kingdoms) but we were both pretty inactive due to the timing of the game and real life situations.

[Kylemii]

It's a good idea but kinda mitigated by the use of lynch polls

the lynch poll doesn't record past vote placements or timing which. making the votes stick out is incredibly important, without it this could take hours. :\ i really don't see why doing both would go out of fashion, it used to be a requirement, iirc.

how about this, can everyone please write in a post who they voted for, and at what time that vote came in in relative to the day's end? Please? i'll put it together i just need the data

I voted for MP 2 hours and 15 minutes before the end of day

this bothered me a lot initially. still does. a huge part of info gathering is factoring in unvotes and how people choose their votes and WHEN they vote and who to (where the vote tally is at the time of their vote, see the switches, see the wagons as they form). I was kinda surprised about how they did vote counts at the syndicate. it's easier, but a little harder to get info from those votes and see voting patterns further than EOD.

Does that mean you'll help?

absolutely. I'll post all my votes in bold hereon and if I unvote I'll bold unvote too before switching and voting in the poll.

I appreciate that a lot but I was hoping to get some players to post the times and subjects of their votes from the day 1 phase. Day 1 was 14 pages long and I don't think I can do this alone :x

If everyone looks through their own posts and submits the timing of their votes it'll make a 3 hour task into 10 16 minute tasks

a lot of people didn't post ITT who their last vote was for, though. That's the problem with that.

I don't think it would be a lot of work for them to figure it out though.

Next time I'll try to record votes in real time

[Spacedaisy]

My gut still says DDL. When I read his ISO one of the things I noticed was that early on he was pushing other people for reads when he himself had not provided any. Additionally, his back pedalling on Sig and now his treatment of the Quin/MP situation. I feel like he is hedging. I'm voting DDL.

Here you go Kyle, my vote for DDL

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Ok I'll do the GTH thingy.

How do I do it? SOmeone asks me questions?

[Tangrowth]

Here's the main things Jay had to say about the GTH exercise in prior games, in chronological order, for anyone who cares:

Economics

Spoiler: show

Jay: Have you ever tried running this in a larger game, say 30+?

I think the results would be even more telling in that setting.

this is only the second time i've done it. i picked it up from someone in the champs game i played. more participants would definitely be better, but what can ya do.

Talking Heads

Spoiler: show

oh there

Results:

Spoiler: show

I'll decide what I think of this later. I need to go to bed. Please let me know if I made any errors with your reads, I probably did somewhere.

Hopefully that image is sized correctly. Took forever.

How much later, exactly? While I value your analyses of the relationships with Long Con and the other players, it's interesting that you went from the game that you yourself suggested and hosted, straight to a different tactic as a new source for information-building when you returned to the thread, without even mentioning the game. Perhaps the results were a bit too informative?

First thing: this has next to zero impact on my read of you, Mac, or Golden. Golden is experienced with GTH reads and I don't think he'd flub them anyway. You and Mac were strong town reads prior and this didn't do anything to change that. So a few THOUGHTS:

~ I'm interested to know what your misgivings are with motel room, Zebs

~ Everyone hates me I'm so unpopular

~ I'm not sure I've seen Mac talk about bea (sorry if I missed it), so some expansion on that bad read would be groovy

~ It'd be cool if Mac would review my DrWilgy interactive analysis and tell me if he disagrees with any points given his bad read on him

~ Gut reads can turn on a dime if you let them (many of mine just did)

Sorry I know this is much, but I honestly don't think the exercise was very productive. It can be, but it needs a lot of people involved -- especially not just a few people that are already consensus town reads.

Turf Wars

Spoiler: show

Okay, here's a chart of the results from the GTH exercise:

Spoiler: show

Some of my immediate thoughts:

~ I have performed this exercise a decent number of times now, and one thing I have found is that the players who give the most town reads have been more likely to flip mafia than other participants. In this exercise, that would reflect poorly on Quin. It isn't a sure thing, and the sample size is still limited, but this has been the trend I have observed. Quins baddie reads were: Black Rock, ika, Serge, and Nerolunar. While I can on some level understand why someone might feel this way about these players, it strikes me as a bit uninspired for those to be the only four names that Quin's gut was willing to spit out "mafia" for.

~ There always seems to be at least one person who is incredibly paranoid. In this case that looks like it would be Serge (I was also more paranoid than usual and need to reassess some of those M's clearly). This has been a mixed bag in this exercise. I've seen baddies do this to limit their connectivity to their team mates (by obscuring everything under a blanket of baddie reads). I've also seen townies who are just legitimately paranoid. In Serge's case though, I do note that he piled on the baddie reads early in the exercise (8 of the first 9, 9 of the first 11), and after that he leveled off with town reads. This might suggest that he realized his reads ratio had gotten ridiculous, and he had to balance the equation for it to make any sense -- which would be a sign of insincerity.

Battlestar Galactica

Spoiler: show

Counts for the GTH reads as charted by Polo:

Good/Bad/Invalid reads provided BY:

Dex - 13/11
Epignosis - 13/10/1
JJJ - 16/8
Marmot - 13/11
Polo - 12/12/1
S~V~S - 17/7
Silverwolf - 12/7/5
Spacedaisy - 14/10

Good/Bad reads provided ON:

a2theZebra - 3/5
bea - 2/5
Black Rock - 7/0
Dex - 3/4
DrWilgy - 1/7
DrumBeats - 8/0
Epignosis - 7/0
G-Man - 7/1
Glorfindel - 2/6
JJJ - 4/4
juliets - 7/1
Long Con - 1/6
LoRab - 1/7
Matt - 2/5
Marmot - 7/1
ObscureAllure - 7/1
Polo - 6/2
Ricochet - 5/3
S~V~S - 8/0
Scotty - 3/5
sig - 0/8
Silverwolf - 8/0
SokothQultug - 5/3
Spacedaisy - 6/2
Vompatti - 4/3

For a while I had noted a trend in this exercise in which people who call out the most town reads are more likely to be bad than the mean. However, it didn't work out that way last time I did this (in Turf Wars when town Quin was that guy). In this case S~V~S wins that dubious honor, but I can hardly blame her when I am right behind her in the count. Besides the two of us the others seem quite paranoid with double-digit baddie counts. I think that's a somewhat nice look for them. Overall though I don't really have immediate thoughts stemming from this. Its usefulness will probably be in future analyses when these stances can be critically examined.

Some of the results in the latter list are a little surprising, like the strong town-inclined reads on juliets, the clean baddie sweep for sig, and the absence of any baddie reads on cylognosis. We might be moving towards the obligatory Lynch Sig Day that no game is complete without.

Mad Max

Spoiler: show

We all may remember the continuing trend that He Who Names The Most GTH Town Reads is more likely to be bad.

Technically I'm tied for that award this time, but I'm still looking at you motel room. :P

Spoiler: show

We all may remember the continuing trend that He Who Names The Most GTH Town Reads is more likely to be bad.

Technically I'm tied for that award this time, but I'm still looking at you motel room. :P

I do not remember this trend. Results may be skewed if it's already a "trend".

I don't have the true stats in front of me, but I've probably done 15 GTHs like that and that has proven true over half the time (which is more often than randomness would dictate).

Spoiler: show

I find it interesting that you GTH read me town Jimmy since not so long ago I was a dark orange skittle.

Consistency can fuck itself. I don't care.

It should be noted though that the rainbow list was the result of extensive analysis -- head stuff.

GTH reads are all about gut stuff. Sometimes there are differences.

...and that was probably a waste of time, lol, but a bunch of folks in this game haven't done GTH before and/or didn't play a lot of these games. Not sure how helpful this is, but hopefully it is somewhat at least to some of you all. Off-topic, but I need to get with Jay and possibly Rico sometime outside of the game and see if we can actually compile reliable, meaningful data for this exercise somehow.

I really, really need to work now. I'll be back late tonight to catch up on the thread and throw out an updated rainbow and hopefully do some more thorough ISO digging if I have time.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I don't have actual reads on half the people but I guess that's the point of it.

[Spacedaisy]

Voting Sig.

I think this is DDL's first vote.