Christmas stuff is keeping me quite busy. I'm going to struggle to be in this thread much until later tonight approaching the deadline. Some quick thoughts on the discussion at hand:
- At face value, I think Golf's push for a Delta lynch right now looks more like a civilian concern than a con to push a game-ending mislynch. Golf's most recent posts just don't
look manipulative to me.
- I don't think Alpha looks bad for being worried about that game-ending mislynch scenario. Prior to the start of this discussion Alpha had stated an intent to view this game through the lens of having two living baddies right now for the sake of maximum caution, and I'd say we're seeing the results of that mindset.
-
I examined the Hotel/Golf pairing before this discussion and wasn't feeling it. I acknowledge there is some WIFOM in that conclusion, but it's where I was before. I think that right now, a modification of that conclusion based upon the Delta-game-ending-mislynch theory would fall into the realm of tinfoil, and I am just not inclined to go there.
- If Hotel and Golf are both bad, Juliet wasn't bad (if Echo was). That notion gives me problems. Juliet quit at the first indication of having received votes (without any of the typical civilian guilt-tripping) and said
nothing through the finalization of the lynch. That is pretty much textbook for concession behavior. If Juliet wasn't bad, then that was truly a damaging and frankly unfair way to handle that situation. I have my doubts.
- Golf is right that even a civilian Delta presents issues in an end game scenario as a projected non-voter. Consider even a Hotel/Golf pairing: we lynch one and the other proceeds to an endgame phase with Delta alive. The civilian voting power in that phase can only be one vote if Delta doesn't contribute, which means
at best the game can only be won in a 1-1 coin flip.
I think we're forced to make a judgment call here, and any decision is going to come with a degree of risk. That's the nature of this no-reveals setup. We cannot know for sure where we stand, but we still have to act according to the theories we develop. We treat the game probabalistically rather than deterministically. So the theory I feel the most confident about is as follows:
- Echo was bad.
- Juliet was bad.
- There is one living baddie.
- Delta is a prime candidate. After that, Juliet and Echo interactions and behavioral interpretation at face value take precedence. Based on where we stand right now with recent discussion in tow, my first guess after Delta would be Hotel. Continual dialogue and reassessment will be necessary through the finish.
I'm going to place a vote for Delta. I encourage you all to keep talking it out and I will try my best to get here early enough to engage it in real-time before the deadline.