Fiddler on the Roof Mafia

[Sloonei]

Sloonbeard being unstoppable started her wagon.

Well then good job Sloonbread. What prompted this wagon and what do you think of Kyle in light of this?

Me feeling like LoRab was being less than honest prompted me to grill her, which then inspired me to campaign for her lynch. I felt like Kyle was bad unto he made a comment about speedchuck today, aftet speedchuck had died. I don't think mafia kyle forgets which player he just killed.

[Dyslexicon]

Ohai.

Let's all pile on LC.

And let me see where we're at.

[Kylemii]

Kyle, can you remind me who you think the rest of the baddies are?

hm? sorry? I haven't claimed to have any idea of who the third mafia member could be. I think LC is a good place to start.

If LC flips mafia that leaves us 5 (correct math?) tries and 240 hours to find the third member, with like 4 or 5 info roles to guide our lynches. I'm not really worried about our chances.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Reason for reading Nut as town is basically emotional tone from her posts. She also doesn't seem to get flinched and have views I can follow and rather agree with. To be fair we did (I think both) genuinly misread each other when we were on opposite scum teams, but that is a difference dynamic anyway. She reads genuine to me.

Reason for suspecting FZ is just an apologetic tone and always being on the back burner. I also don't think she vibes very different than from the one game I've played with her when she was scum (but I was also scum with her and knew her alignment then). Content is little and a bit vague.

Btw, LoRab's posts are reading very vague and scummy to me. I think Epig mentioned him having misread her before, but they seem like very "general typical scum" posts afaic. Players with meta on her, what do you think?

MacDoug, What's your reasoning for Nut and FZ read?

I don't think we've ever played together. So, hi. Nice to meet you. This is generaly how I play--my posts often seem like they are "general typical scum" to those who have come from more typical gaming sites than those I have ever played on. If you have any specific questions, I'm happy to answer them. Other than that, you don't really give me anything to defend on.

I don't think this was faked, meaning LoRab's first interaction with Dizzy on this site or elsewhere was right here (instead of in BTSC on Day 0/1). One might suspect that it was faked, and even if so I think there's more good evidence in Dizzy's favor in their own post history. They made LoRab a consistent target of suspicion in a way that I don't think looks like typical distancing.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Kyle, can you remind me who you think the rest of the baddies are?

hm? sorry? I haven't claimed to have any idea of who the third mafia member could be. I think LC is a good place to start.

If LC flips mafia that leaves us 5 (correct math?) tries and 240 hours to find the third member, with like 4 or 5 info roles to guide our lynches. I'm not really worried about our chances.

Do you have any alternative suspects?

[Dyslexicon]

So I've flipped my suspeicions a bit. Read through ISO's of my two top suspects, Kyle and Daisy -

I don't think Kyle is mafia anymore. Both his beginning of the game and his posts today has eased my concerns for that. I also still hold that his "respect" comment points to him not being mafia, even if he actually argued against this (which also looks towny imo). Things I had forgotten, so I no longer hold suspicion there.

Daisy, I'm not as sure, but I do like her defense today. It makes sense, at the very least.

I should go over LC's and Mac's posts this day phase.

[Dyslexicon]

Also, I had completely forgotten about the no reveal flips that is used here. I'm not used to that, and it's pretty weird. o.o

[Dyslexicon]

Epi, why are you voting for Wilgy? Why are you not voting for LC?

LC has four votes. He doesn't need mine. And it's early. Burying LC with plenty of hours left in the Day doesn't give him any room to go after mafia if he is indeed civilian, but instead only incentivizes defense mode.

LC needs all the votes and love he can get. Everyone should vote today, and they should vote where they want to see the flip. I want to see LC flip, cause he's been a black hole to me in terms of getting a read on him, and now I don't believe the woops I voted Epig. He's just likely scum with Lorab and he needs to go.

[Dyslexicon]

The Marmot/Mac thing is weird. Mac is being weird.

[Sloonei]

The Marmot/Mac thing is weird. Mac is being weird.

Does weird = bad in either of these cases?

[Dyslexicon]

The Marmot/Mac thing is weird. Mac is being weird.

Does weird = bad in either of these cases?

Uh. I don't know, I haven't read thoroughly enough. Crap shoot says Mac would be more likely bad than Marmot.

[Epignosis]

This may have changed over the years, but Lorab doesn't like to be thrown under the bus.

[Epignosis]

That isn't in response to anything I read. Just something.

[Kylemii]

Kyle, can you remind me who you think the rest of the baddies are?

hm? sorry? I haven't claimed to have any idea of who the third mafia member could be. I think LC is a good place to start.

If LC flips mafia that leaves us 5 (correct math?) tries and 240 hours to find the third member, with like 4 or 5 info roles to guide our lynches. I'm not really worried about our chances.

Do you have any alternative suspects?

For this lynch, not really. LC looks really bad and I think he's probably with the police. I think there's too much evidence pointing towards his and Lorabs partnership in the previous lynch, including but not limited to the fact that they didn't vote for each other or really discuss each other and the fact that there wasn't a push by anyone to add that one extra vote to save lorab by voting for long con.

If long con doesn't turn out to be mafia then the fact that there wasn't a push might implicate players who weren't around for the end of day or players who already had their votes on long con.

Very Good
Epi
JJJ
Sloonei
Kylemii

Pretty Good
Nutella
Wilgy
Mac
Dyslexicon

Neutral
Spacedaisy
Novaselinever

Maybe bad?
FZ
Marmot

Bad
LC

Off the top of my head this is where I place everyone rn. I can't remember any of novaselinever's specific contributions so that's why he's there. Spacedaisy is on yellow because I generally believe she has good vibes but there is still a slight chance that her motivation to not vote LC or LR was out of an aversion to voting for her longtime friends and also mafia buds. Slight. FZ and Marmot are on the bottom because I don't have any solid reasons to read them as civ. I was also etched out a little by FZ's recent post asking me why I hadn't personally solved the entire game yet, and if LC does flip civ then FZ's vote on him looks less than great.

That's all just off the top of my head, though. There's definitely some legwork that could be done there, but rn I don't want to do legwork, I want to play Skyrim. I'm following along and checking in every 30 minutes or so. If LC comes online later and makes a particularly moving case for himself then I'll probably get back into search mode.

[Epignosis]

Epi, why are you voting for Wilgy? Why are you not voting for LC?

LC has four votes. He doesn't need mine. And it's early. Burying LC with plenty of hours left in the Day doesn't give him any room to go after mafia if he is indeed civilian, but instead only incentivizes defense mode.

LC needs all the votes and love he can get. Everyone should vote today, and they should vote where they want to see the flip. I want to see LC flip, cause he's been a black hole to me in terms of getting a read on him, and now I don't believe the woops I voted Epig. He's just likely scum with Lorab and he needs to go.

While I agree with you (in that my biggest suspect if Long Con), I believe dog-piling anyone early in the Day is bad policy. I'm still waiting to hear from him.

[Kylemii]

Dyslexicon is a tone read. I find their posts agreeable for the most part and I think the journey they've been through in an attempt to read me seems genuine. that is another point that could use some further legwork.

[Epignosis]

Kyle, can you remind me who you think the rest of the baddies are?

hm? sorry? I haven't claimed to have any idea of who the third mafia member could be. I think LC is a good place to start.

If LC flips mafia that leaves us 5 (correct math?) tries and 240 hours to find the third member, with like 4 or 5 info roles to guide our lynches. I'm not really worried about our chances.

Do you have any alternative suspects?

For this lynch, not really. LC looks really bad and I think he's probably with the police. I think there's too much evidence pointing towards his and Lorabs partnership in the previous lynch, including but not limited to the fact that they didn't vote for each other or really discuss each other and the fact that there wasn't a push by anyone to add that one extra vote to save lorab by voting for long con.

If long con doesn't turn out to be mafia then the fact that there wasn't a push might implicate players who weren't around for the end of day or players who already had their votes on long con.

Very Good
Epi
JJJ
Sloonei
Kylemii

Pretty Good
Nutella
Wilgy
Mac
Dyslexicon

Neutral
Spacedaisy
Novaselinever

Maybe bad?
FZ
Marmot

Bad
LC

Off the top of my head this is where I place everyone rn. I can't remember any of novaselinever's specific contributions so that's why he's there. Spacedaisy is on yellow because I generally believe she has good vibes but there is still a slight chance that her motivation to not vote LC or LR was out of an aversion to voting for her longtime friends and also mafia buds. Slight. FZ and Marmot are on the bottom because I don't have any solid reasons to read them as civ. I was also etched out a little by FZ's recent post asking me why I hadn't personally solved the entire game yet, and if LC does flip civ then FZ's vote on him looks less than great.

That's all just off the top of my head, though. There's definitely some legwork that could be done there, but rn I don't want to do legwork, I want to play Skyrim. I'm following along and checking in every 30 minutes or so. If LC comes online later and makes a particularly moving case for himself then I'll probably get back into search mode.

I don't understand your mindset with regard to FZ.

She was, as I recall, the prime mover against Long Con.

You think Lorab and Long Con would tiptoe around each other, but FZ. would just come in guns blazing against LC?

[Kylemii]

I don't understand your mindset with regard to FZ.

She was, as I recall, the prime mover against Long Con.

You think Lorab and Long Con would tiptoe around each other, but FZ. would just come in guns blazing against LC?

well, that would probably be where doing the legwork would/will come in handy

but I explained in the later paragraph that FZ probably makes more sense in a Mafia where LC isn't part of it.

[nutella]

Jay's been doing some good work. I could see a Tinfoil Scenario™ where Mac is bad, but I would still be pretty surprised.

At the moment I'm tending to think that if LC flips bad, Kyle is where I want to look next. But this game has been characterized by my opinions of players doing 180-degree flips so who knows what I'll think by tomorrow. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Dyslexicon]

Time's up for me as I need to go to bed.

Good luck, town. Everyone on board and full speed ahead, please.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Oops, I slipped.

[nutella]

Oops, I slipped.

Marmot's bad. Thanks, Marmot.

[nutella]

Or Marmot's the jester.

[Marmot]

I think that at this point, after losing 1/3 of the team so fast, the mafia wouldn't let Wilgy be that quiet

Do mafia teams do this?

I would pm him like crazy to try and get him to be more active. Heck, if I were mafia and my win depended on a player who is just barely posting to not get any reads on him, I wouldn't want that win. But if he's just going to get himself lynched because of not posting, and that would cause his team to lose a power, that's even more reason to call him out

We were mafia partners in Pikmin Mafia which took place around Christmas a couple years ago. I was borderline absent in the later stages of the game due to family events and things. I don't recall you doing that sort of thing. Is that the sort of scenario you're talking about?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.

The only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as Town

Mac 2nd Mafia/3rd Party
Marmot 2nd Mafia/3rd Party

I'm interested in these reads, NVN. You list them both as potentially being either mafia or 3rd party. what stands out about these two, and which do you think is more likely to be mafia, and which is more likely to be 3rd party?

I've been following their quarrel since the beginning of the game. There isn't a lot of substance behind it, it just felt like two scum going at each other and trying to gain Town credits by lynching a scum.
I'm leaning towards Macdougall being the Mafia and Marmot being the 3rd Party. I didn't like how he put his vote on Marmot early D1. His whole reasoning was based on the fact that he usually find Mafia that are missed by most people. He even admitted that Marmot's content read Town but his scum read was a gut feeling lol.

*looks at poll*

[Kylemii]

Oops, I slipped.

Marmot's bad. Thanks, Marmot.

wait what happened?

[Marmot]

Oops, I slipped.

Marmot's bad. Thanks, Marmot.

wait what happened?

Clearly I've missed something.

I have to run in like 10 minutes and won't be around.

What just happened?

[nutella]

we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.

The only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as Town

Mac 2nd Mafia/3rd Party
Marmot 2nd Mafia/3rd Party

I'm interested in these reads, NVN. You list them both as potentially being either mafia or 3rd party. what stands out about these two, and which do you think is more likely to be mafia, and which is more likely to be 3rd party?

I've been following their quarrel since the beginning of the game. There isn't a lot of substance behind it, it just felt like two scum going at each other and trying to gain Town credits by lynching a scum.
I'm leaning towards Macdougall being the Mafia and Marmot being the 3rd Party. I didn't like how he put his vote on Marmot early D1. His whole reasoning was based on the fact that he usually find Mafia that are missed by most people. He even admitted that Marmot's content read Town but his scum read was a gut feeling lol.

*looks at poll*

[nutella]

Jay voted for Marmot. Since he said "oops I slipped" I believe it to be a forced vote.

[Marmot]

Or Marmot's the jester.

Haha I wish.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Oops, I slipped.

Marmot's bad. Thanks, Marmot.

wait what happened?

Clearly I've missed something.

I have to run in like 10 minutes and won't be around.

What just happened?

You should use that time to say who's bad.

[nutella]

And that leads me to thinking Marmot may be bad due to a rather convoluted string of thoughts but mostly because Marmot is Marmot.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay voted for Marmot. Since he said "oops I slipped" I believe it to be a forced vote.

Nah I'm good.

[nutella]

But actually real talk why is Nova voting LC? See, I thought Nova was our info role, but I had also considered the possibility that he's LC's teammate trying some hardcore bussing strategy. That would be pretty wild and daring but like... if he knows LC is bad why isn't he voting for LC? Does he think the 3p is a bigger threat at the moment?

[Marmot]

And that leads me to thinking Marmot may be bad due to a rather convoluted string of thoughts but mostly because Marmot is Marmot.

Can you please explain what convulated thoughts brought you to that conclusion.

[nutella]

Jay voted for Marmot. Since he said "oops I slipped" I believe it to be a forced vote.

Nah I'm good.

........Gotchu fam

[Marmot]

But actually real talk why is Nova voting LC? See, I thought Nova was our info role, but I had also considered the possibility that he's LC's teammate trying some hardcore bussing strategy. That would be pretty wild and daring but like... if he knows LC is bad why isn't he voting for LC? Does he think the 3p is a bigger threat at the moment?

I've voting novacaine for this same reason.

If I'm a third party, why vote for me?

[nutella]

And that leads me to thinking Marmot may be bad due to a rather convoluted string of thoughts but mostly because Marmot is Marmot.

Can you please explain what convulated thoughts brought you to that conclusion.

marmot -> wifom -> crazy gambit (crambit™) -> argyooo wit mac overnight -> ??? -> profit

idk man right now my theories are changing every time I post this game and I'm just exploring a lot of different possibilities

[Marmot]

I think nova is mafia.

Long Con could be mafia.

But I've got a solid gut feeling that one of the more perceptive players in this game is the other mafia member. In that shortlist, I would include MacDougall, Jay, and Sloonei.



That's where I'm

[Marmot]

And that leads me to thinking Marmot may be bad due to a rather convoluted string of thoughts but mostly because Marmot is Marmot.

Can you please explain what convulated thoughts brought you to that conclusion.

marmot -> wifom -> crazy gambit (crambit™) -> argyooo wit mac overnight -> ??? -> profit

idk man right now my theories are changing every time I post this game and I'm just exploring a lot of different possibilities

I've had a scumread on him since Day 1 lol.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

But I've got a solid gut feeling that one of the more perceptive players in this game is the other mafia member. In that shortlist, I would include MacDougall, Jay, and Sloonei.

Any idea what gives you that vibe?

[Epignosis]

Jay voted for Marmot. Since he said "oops I slipped" I believe it to be a forced vote.

Nah I'm good.

........Gotchu fam

Jay "slipped" his vote on to someone else. That's all I got from it. It was a lighthearted way of saying he moved his vote. "My finger slipped." I've seen him say this before.

[Marmot]

But I've got a solid gut feeling that one of the more perceptive players in this game is the other mafia member. In that shortlist, I would include MacDougall, Jay, and Sloonei.

Any idea what gives you that vibe?

Your oopsie.

[nutella]

Jay voted for Marmot. Since he said "oops I slipped" I believe it to be a forced vote.

Nah I'm good.

........Gotchu fam

Jay "slipped" his vote on to someone else. That's all I got from it. It was a lighthearted way of saying he moved his vote. "My finger slipped." I've seen him say this before.

Yeah no I got that. I'm not clear on why he did so, but if he suspects Marmot more than LC I'm certainly not about to stop him. 'Tis all good.

[mention]Marmot[/mention], what about Kyle?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

But I've got a solid gut feeling that one of the more perceptive players in this game is the other mafia member. In that shortlist, I would include MacDougall, Jay, and Sloonei.

Any idea what gives you that vibe?

Your oopsie.

Such butter fingers.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Wondering if the mafia team is just LC and NVN and this is that easy.

[Marmot]

Kyle is yellow to me. I don't know him well enough to make an assertion about his attention.

[Marmot]

Wondering if the mafia team is just LC and NVN and this is that easy.

Here have a vote.

Why is that easy? Why would nova come into the thread, suggest info on his teammate, and vote for someone he think is independent?

[Kylemii]

nut, is the main thing that you suspect Jay's marmot vote was forced and that the mafia selected one of their own (marmot) to be vote recipient for wifom purposes?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Wondering if the mafia team is just LC and NVN and this is that easy.

Here have a vote.

Why is that easy? Why would nova come into the thread, suggest info on his teammate, and vote for someone he think is independent?

I don't interpret him as having claimed to have actual information. That's against the rules anyway. I think he used the word to indicate his "read".