Mortal Kombat Mafia [ENDGAME]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Very well, Jay - you have my attention.

Let's consider the LC wagon:

lapluie, speedchuck, Kylemii, Marmot

The first one we've discussed. Very well. Kylemii was just killed.

speedchuck was made aware of your reputation early in the game. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that isn't great. Marmot knows you well as a long-time veteran of the site. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that's even worse. I'll have to go back and check whether either of them were present at the very end.

Kyle was Outworld?

What makes you think so?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

speedchuck was made aware of your reputation early in the game. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that isn't great. Marmot knows you well as a long-time veteran of the site. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that's even worse. I'll have to go back and check whether either of them were present at the very end.

speedchuck's last post prior to the deadline came a few hours ahead. He posted pretty soon after the TSP flip though. It's possible he was present, but he didn't post.

Quick take.

Long Con has been apathetic all day, and eventually voted lap for self-preservation.

lap is giving what looks like a sincere defence, but is suddenly willing to lynch speedchuck despite not having any reason to. I get self-preservation, but guilting another player into lynching one of their scum-reads.

Marmot was here at EOD. He acknowledged Glorfindel's yelling but did not heed it. He kept asking "why", which is a bit obtuse I think given the rules of the game.

Spoiler: show

And there we have it - our Mafia voting for the confirmed Townie (LC)

Who's a confirmed townie?

LC is confirmed Town you fools

I DON’T LIE!

WHY??

This is the most embarrassing EOD I've ever seen and I'm sorry I didn't break the tie... but I still think tony is more likely bad than lap. If LC dies because of this though... jesus christ you guys

What do you and Glorfindel know about Long Con that we don't?

Not a good look.

[Kylemii]

[Jackofhearts2005]

Well, on the one hand, losing Kyle is a big loss. On the other, that still leaves two other players I trust unconditionally and I still feel really good about Quin.

Doubting many of my reads, particularly my baddie reads on Jimmy and Wilgy. (Laugh it up if I was right you first time you bastards. )

I still feel very confident about my Simon read and I can actually do something about it now.

*Vote Simon*

[Jackofhearts2005]

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

Why do you think a neutral in this game would claim?

What do you think of Speed's analysis on your claim and Marmot's claim yesterday? That is, how good was the analysis and what does it do for your Speedchuck read?

At this point, I'm not even sure if I should even ask you for reads. Whatever.

[speedchuck]

Well, guess I'm the only one here. RIP Kylemii.

Gonna go ahead and vote Simon. I as of yet have seen nothing to dissuade me.

[lapluie]

Hang on a second..why are we voting simon again?

[lapluie]

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] what do you think about tonys case for nutella? Before he died he said she's mafia & he flipped jade so he was very certain she was bad. Thoughts? Also for [mention]speedchuck[/mention] & the rest who are voting simon or are considering it

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JaggedJimmyJay

Why do you think a neutral in this game would claim?

I can't speak for everybody. I don't think it's likely to come from a "this is how I'm going to win this game" mindset though. It's not really a beneficial move in any alignment. So the explanation is more sensibly: boredom. Playing in multiple games with a ton of player overlap while Mafia burnout is already quickly mounting is a monotonous headache. One has to find ways to make it fun again, even if it means doing weird shit that doesn't necessarily help win the game. After all, an indy is alone, and has nobody counting on him/her. There's beautiful freedom in that.

What do you think of Speed's analysis on your claim and Marmot's claim yesterday? That is, how good was the analysis and what does it do for your Speedchuck read?

I think he was on the right track at least in that he recognized 3P is more likely in a vacuum than mafia for me. I think that should be pretty obvious, but part of the intrigue here is to explore civilian paranoia. I am leaning toward a mafia Marmot now though for reasons other than his counterclaim. I don't blame speedchuck for disagreeing on that specific point. The worst thing for speedchuck regarding this conversation alone would be that he dedicated his time and energy to sorting out claims of at least one person who isn't relevant to the civilian win condition. That's a reach I grant.

At this point, I'm not even sure if I should even ask you for reads. Whatever.

You should. Nobody here is obligated to trust the reads I provide, but I am still happy to do so if there is a demand. Believe me or don't, but I don't want this game to end with the civilians left splattered and flattened all over the pavement. That's not ideal. The vast majority of the hunting and solving I have done in this thread has been the genuine sort, and I have reasons to continue doing that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Hang on a second..why are we voting simon again?

I think MacDougall's theory that Jack was bussing Simon was merited enough that one of two scenarios is true:

~ Jack knows something about Simon via honest means, and it's more conclusive than a blocked kill.

~ Jack is bussing Simon.

If the former is true, that's a good lead on Simon being mafia. If the latter is true, Simon is definitely mafia.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay what do you think about tonys case for nutella? Before he died he said she's mafia & he flipped jade so he was very certain she was bad. Thoughts? Also for @speedchuck & the rest who are voting simon or are considering it

I thought his substantive case was uninspiring, but it's pretty evident now that he at least thought he had solid information implicating nutella. That alone placed her in my POE pool -- otherwise I might have read her as a civilian. She is a valid suspect if not necessary a 100% slam dunk.

[lapluie]

@TonyStarkPrime

Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?

@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

I’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.

Is this alone enough proof that nutella is bad, he wasn't so sure about Simon, correct me if I'm wrong about that

[lapluie]

@TonyStarkPrime

Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?

@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

I’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.

Let me rephrase.

"With your recent suspicious actions like saying we shouldn't lynch Simon and with roughly one mislynch allowed before we lose, what actual reasons do we have to trust you are town and what actual reasons do we have to lynch Nutella?"

i have an actual case on Nutella but I’m going to wait until I have time to do it right and why would I say that we shouldn’t lynch Simon today if I knew he wasn’t going to be on the lynch?

I can explain better but give me seven hours.

[lapluie]

I think for now, we should take from what Dunya & Tony have provided us with this nutella information, & if I remember correctly, Dunya also claimed nutella was bad

[lapluie]

If we are voting Simon tonight, we will mislynched & kill another townie, (possibly). So genuine reads from those two are better than a confused & unsure read on simon.

[lapluie]

Sorry for spam, just my two cents on this while situation, hope somebody agrees with me & sees that it could be a right thing to do as of now considering we can't afford to lose more town =/

[speedchuck]

If we are voting Simon tonight, we will mislynched & kill another townie, (possibly). So genuine reads from those two are better than a confused & unsure read on simon.

Dunya's info was probably wrong because of a bit of 3P advice we got. Tony's info, based on his role, could very easily be wrong. Assuming he had info, let's look at the following:

Don't forget that the mafia have five players, and only one of them carries out the kill. Tony was a tracker. He would have had to have been lucky, and tracked the exact right one that was carrying out the kill.

AND

Every single role in this crazy game is a targeting role. I just checked. Everyone is visiting someone.

So IDK. My scumread on Simon, combined with the way his lynch has been PREVENTED and DEFLECTED and BUSSED all in a 48 hour period, feels a lot more certain than some possible info from a guy that would have been insanely lucky to track the kill, and also could easily be wrong because of the way tracking works. My vote stays.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Hang on a second..why are we voting simon again?

Cause the goal of the game is to lynch the mafia before the kill all the townies.

[Glorfindel]

speedchuck was made aware of your reputation early in the game. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that isn't great. Marmot knows you well as a long-time veteran of the site. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that's even worse. I'll have to go back and check whether either of them were present at the very end.

speedchuck's last post prior to the deadline came a few hours ahead. He posted pretty soon after the TSP flip though. It's possible he was present, but he didn't post.

Quick take.

Long Con has been apathetic all day, and eventually voted lap for self-preservation.

lap is giving what looks like a sincere defence, but is suddenly willing to lynch speedchuck despite not having any reason to. I get self-preservation, but guilting another player into lynching one of their scum-reads.

Marmot was here at EOD. He acknowledged Glorfindel's yelling but did not heed it. He kept asking "why", which is a bit obtuse I think given the rules of the game.

Spoiler: show

And there we have it - our Mafia voting for the confirmed Townie (LC)

Who's a confirmed townie?

LC is confirmed Town you fools

I DON’T LIE!

WHY??

This is the most embarrassing EOD I've ever seen and I'm sorry I didn't break the tie... but I still think tony is more likely bad than lap. If LC dies because of this though... jesus christ you guys

What do you and Glorfindel know about Long Con that we don't?

Not a good look.

What you say here about Marmot rings true, Jay. He did appear to me to be far too hard to convince under the circumstances.

Also, apologies to you Lapluie. Jay has made me see the light.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Hang on a second..why are we voting simon again?

I think MacDougall's theory that Jack was bussing Simon was merited enough that one of two scenarios is true:

~ Jack knows something about Simon via honest means, and it's more conclusive than a blocked kill.

~ Jack is bussing Simon.

If the former is true, that's a good lead on Simon being mafia. If the latter is true, Simon is definitely mafia.

[lapluie]

If we are voting Simon tonight, we will mislynched & kill another townie, (possibly). So genuine reads from those two are better than a confused & unsure read on simon.

Dunya's info was probably wrong because of a bit of 3P advice we got. Tony's info, based on his role, could very easily be wrong. Assuming he had info, let's look at the following:

Don't forget that the mafia have five players, and only one of them carries out the kill. Tony was a tracker. He would have had to have been lucky, and tracked the exact right one that was carrying out the kill.

AND

Every single role in this crazy game is a targeting role. I just checked. Everyone is visiting someone.

So IDK. My scumread on Simon, combined with the way his lynch has been PREVENTED and DEFLECTED and BUSSED all in a 48 hour period, feels a lot more certain than some possible info from a guy that would have been insanely lucky to track the kill, and also could easily be wrong because of the way tracking works. My vote stays.

Ofcourse it stays speedchuck, of course it stays & I know why but hey to each their own.

[Jackofhearts2005]

That's not a claim. I just think this is good reasoning.

[lapluie]

speedchuck was made aware of your reputation early in the game. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that isn't great. Marmot knows you well as a long-time veteran of the site. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that's even worse. I'll have to go back and check whether either of them were present at the very end.

speedchuck's last post prior to the deadline came a few hours ahead. He posted pretty soon after the TSP flip though. It's possible he was present, but he didn't post.

Quick take.

Long Con has been apathetic all day, and eventually voted lap for self-preservation.

lap is giving what looks like a sincere defence, but is suddenly willing to lynch speedchuck despite not having any reason to. I get self-preservation, but guilting another player into lynching one of their scum-reads.

Marmot was here at EOD. He acknowledged Glorfindel's yelling but did not heed it. He kept asking "why", which is a bit obtuse I think given the rules of the game.

Spoiler: show

And there we have it - our Mafia voting for the confirmed Townie (LC)

Who's a confirmed townie?

LC is confirmed Town you fools

I DON’T LIE!

WHY??

This is the most embarrassing EOD I've ever seen and I'm sorry I didn't break the tie... but I still think tony is more likely bad than lap. If LC dies because of this though... jesus christ you guys

What do you and Glorfindel know about Long Con that we don't?

Not a good look.

What you say here about Marmot rings true, Jay. He did appear to me to be far too hard to convince under the circumstances.

Also, apologies to you Lapluie. Jay has made me see the light.

Thank you glorf! I'm sorry as well for poor behaviours last night.

what are your thoughts on Tony claims about nutella?

[lapluie]

That's not a claim. I just think this is good reasoning.

Do you agree with Tony or not?

[TonyStarkPrime]

Hang on a second..why are we voting simon again?

Cause the goal of the game is to lynch the mafia before the kill all the townies.

[lapluie]

Hang on a second..why are we voting simon again?

Cause the goal of the game is to lynch the mafia before the kill all the townies.

Accurate reaction.

[Jackofhearts2005]

@TonyStarkPrime

Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?

@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

I’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.

Is this alone enough proof that nutella is bad, he wasn't so sure about Simon, correct me if I'm wrong about that

Trackers are one of the less reliable kmfo gatherers.

Mislynch when:
1) Tracker is misdirected
2) Target targeted mafia hit on purpose but didn't kill them
3) Target targeted the mafia hit on accident but didn't kill them

This is in contrast to cops, who have just problem 1 and semi rare cloaks and millers, lie detectors that are generally airtight and watchers who suffer from 1-3 to a much lesser degree.

That doesn't mean Tony's wrong about Nutella but it does mean that when the town fracker says Nutella is bad, I don't drop what I'm doing, esp at or close to mylo when I have what I believe to be a surefire baddie in Simon.

Nutella is worth looking into.

[Glorfindel]

speedchuck was made aware of your reputation early in the game. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that isn't great. Marmot knows you well as a long-time veteran of the site. If he was here and did not heed your yells to save LC, that's even worse. I'll have to go back and check whether either of them were present at the very end.

speedchuck's last post prior to the deadline came a few hours ahead. He posted pretty soon after the TSP flip though. It's possible he was present, but he didn't post.

Quick take.

Long Con has been apathetic all day, and eventually voted lap for self-preservation.

lap is giving what looks like a sincere defence, but is suddenly willing to lynch speedchuck despite not having any reason to. I get self-preservation, but guilting another player into lynching one of their scum-reads.

Marmot was here at EOD. He acknowledged Glorfindel's yelling but did not heed it. He kept asking "why", which is a bit obtuse I think given the rules of the game.

Spoiler: show

And there we have it - our Mafia voting for the confirmed Townie (LC)

Who's a confirmed townie?

LC is confirmed Town you fools

I DON’T LIE!

WHY??

This is the most embarrassing EOD I've ever seen and I'm sorry I didn't break the tie... but I still think tony is more likely bad than lap. If LC dies because of this though... jesus christ you guys

What do you and Glorfindel know about Long Con that we don't?

Not a good look.

What you say here about Marmot rings true, Jay. He did appear to me to be far too hard to convince under the circumstances.

Also, apologies to you Lapluie. Jay has made me see the light.

Thank you glorf! I'm sorry as well for poor behaviours last night.

what are your thoughts on Tony claims about nutella?

I’d have to go back and check. I can certainly see Nutella as being Mafia. And if read what you said earlier correctly, I agree - the whole Simon thing seems like a bad deal to me and I am skeptical of anyone pushing that agenda right now.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Glorfindel, can you summarize your trepidation with a Simon lynch?

[Jackofhearts2005]

That's not a claim. I just think this is good reasoning.

Do you agree with Tony or not?

I isoed Nutella and she looked good.

That said, I have no doubt Tony tracked Nutella targeting the mafia kill and there is only one known misdirector. While Tony may have drawn the town misd, his info is probably accurate.

If I had to put a number on it, I'd say 75% chance Nutella is bad based on Tony's info. My actual read on her fluctuates with my read on you atm.

But don't listen to me. I said I was really good at mafia the other day but I forgot to mention I apparently suck at mafia except that part of the game where I caught Simon.

[Jackofhearts2005]

[mention]nutella[/mention]

Your targets ever turn up dead.

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

This is like "how was your night?" There be reasons.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JaggedJimmyJay

This is like "how was your night?" There be reasons.

I can't tell if you're actually asking me that or qualifying your own decisions today.

[Jackofhearts2005]

JaggedJimmyJay

This is like "how was your night?" There be reasons.

I can't tell if you're actually asking me that or qualifying your own decisions today.

Qualifying. I thought we had this conversation on HCRealms. I think I'm thinking of a conversation I had with Golden. Nm.

[Jackofhearts2005]

But yeah. How are you?

[Quin]

I figure I'll put it out there that I'm only here until a few hours before EoD. If you've got any beef with, speak now or forever hold your peace.

I'd vote either nutella or Simon. I'd say that I'm leaning more towards nutella because TSP seemed confident in his scum read, plus his flip. Quite likely it's a claim based on information.

[lapluie]

I figure I'll put it out there that I'm only here until a few hours before EoD. If you've got any beef with, speak now or forever hold your peace.

I'm vegan

[lapluie]

hm, there's not much activity ..odd

[speedchuck]

I'll be here for EOD, so that's nice.

. . .

Nothing to talk about but the votes. Simon is in the lead and it should stay that way.

[lapluie]

I'll be here for EOD, so that's nice.

. . .

Nothing to talk about but the votes. Simon is in the lead and it should stay that way.

You're very wrong.
Proof is already in the pudding but you choose to ignore that.

[speedchuck]

I'll be here for EOD, so that's nice.

. . .

Nothing to talk about but the votes. Simon is in the lead and it should stay that way.

You're very wrong.
Proof is already in the pudding but you choose to ignore that.

I have addressed every one of your arguments and provided reasons of my own. And I'm the one ignoring things?

[speedchuck]

Also, hah. I get it. Nutella - Pudding. Clever.

[lapluie]

You guys don't actually think Simon's is bad, youre voting him off because he's inactive, there's no real evidence that he's mafia, the real evidence is in nutella.
Tony was very adamant in nutella being bad.
But I feel like I'm talking to myself now & nobody's listening so ...rip....

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You guys don't actually think Simon's is bad, youre voting him off because he's inactive, there's no real evidence that he's mafia, the real evidence is in nutella.
Tony was very adamant in nutella being bad.
But I feel like I'm talking to myself now & nobody's listening so ...rip....

What if there's very similar evidence against Simon as there is against nutella?

[lapluie]

[mention]Glorfindel[/mention]
[mention]Marmot[/mention]
[mention]Made[/mention]
[mention]Long Con[/mention]

Come back to kick butt thx

[lapluie]

You guys don't actually think Simon's is bad, youre voting him off because he's inactive, there's no real evidence that he's mafia, the real evidence is in nutella.
Tony was very adamant in nutella being bad.
But I feel like I'm talking to myself now & nobody's listening so ...rip....

What if there's very similar evidence against Simon as there is against nutella?

There is no case against simon, I for one am certain simon isn't bad, there's no reason to even lynch him. He's inactive!!!!

=/

[lapluie]

[mention]DrWilgy[/mention] pls tell me why you're voting for speed.. do you think nutella would be a better lynch after what tony made so clear the other day??

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You guys don't actually think Simon's is bad, youre voting him off because he's inactive, there's no real evidence that he's mafia, the real evidence is in nutella.
Tony was very adamant in nutella being bad.
But I feel like I'm talking to myself now & nobody's listening so ...rip....

What if there's very similar evidence against Simon as there is against nutella?

There is no case against simon, I for one am certain simon isn't bad, there's no reason to even lynch him. He's inactive!!!!

=/

I'm surprised you're certain that he isn't bad. I could understand being unconvinced.

How about this: if you consider the way TSP tried to voice his suspicion of nutella and lynch her -- would you say that Jack has done the same thing (or something close) with Simon?

[lapluie]

Its best to lynch mafia players who are still active now, rather than an inactive player imo.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Its best to lynch mafia players who are still active now, rather than an inactive player imo.

That's a fair argument. I would consider them both to be active at least in that they can send night actions. You'll note that Simon voted late in the last day phase, and for you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I do think that if we assume there is information working against both Simon and nutella, then we're left to judge their content apart from that. I have no reason to give Simon civilian credit. If it wasn't for TSP's flip, I might actually read nutella as a civilian right now. If she is mafia then she has worn the mask very well in this game.