Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

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Who must be stopped?

Poll ended at Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:26 pm

Speedchuck (Dunya)
2
11%
Nutella
0
No votes
Colonialbob
3
17%
Sig
0
No votes
Kites
0
No votes
The suspense is killing me (host/dead/non)
13
72%
 
Total votes: 18
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2701

Post by sprityo »

:clap:
Epignosis wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 11:46 pm You all are terrible at this.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:How does it feel to be the Best Civilian Player on the Syndicate?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2702

Post by sprityo »

i do love me some good ole fashioned Statistics, i like the way you brought this around, Epi.

I wish to discuss this with someone, but is there anyone online who is willing?
Epignosis wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 11:46 pm You all are terrible at this.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:How does it feel to be the Best Civilian Player on the Syndicate?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2703

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

I don't suspect dunya because her posts look like civilian posts and there are 500 of them.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2704

Post by Quin »

i know you all just tried to (literally) murder me in my sleep but please have rico try to recruit me we're the best duo the syndicate has ever seen
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2705

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Quin wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:36 pm i do suspect dunya. the argument that a civilian should be meeting a scum read quota is bad. i also suspect nutella for following through with that argument.
How about the argument that your post history to this point has featured barely more than nothing despite being of a well-higher-than-nothing count?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2706

Post by Quin »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:43 pm
Quin wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:36 pm i do suspect dunya. the argument that a civilian should be meeting a scum read quota is bad. i also suspect nutella for following through with that argument.
How about the argument that your post history to this point has featured barely more than nothing despite being of a well-higher-than-nothing count?
valid.
Lunalee wrote: Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:13 amQuin's ISO is full of posts that are actually trying to be helpful to the game. This doesn't look like town Quin.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2707

Post by Marmot »

Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm
Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

sprityo
JJJ
dunya
MM
Cbob

JJJ
random with tweaks (first answer)
(second answer:)
dunya
rdw
Quin
Epi

Cbob
random

Epi
dunya
JJJ
LC
nutella

DDL
Epi
LC
Quin
Colin

MM
lapluie
gwilikers
Tony
Dr. White

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

Kylemii
Quin
dunya OR JJJ
LC OR Epi OR nutella
Wilgy OR lapluie OR Any rym

Tony
dunya
Cbob
JJJ
random

Mac
gwilikers
rdw
dunya
Wilgy

Colin
random

sig
Wilgy
MM
rabbit
Mac

gwilikers
Unknown people

lapluie
MM

LC
Kylemii
nutella
Sloonei
lapluie

Dr. White
MM
random

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Kenway
dunya
Sloonei
Epi
Kylemii
JJJ OR Mac

Kites
dunya
gwilikers
Two non-rym

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Spoiler: show
This is the number of times a player was mentioned. Decimals are owing to the fact that some people said one of a pair or trio, so that point was divided accordingly.

dunya 10.5
JJJ 7
Epi 5.3
Mac 5
rdw 4
Marmot 4
Quin 3
gwilikers 3
LC 2.8
nutella 2.3
lapluie 2.3
Wilgy 2.3
Cbob 2
Kylemii 2
Sloonei 2
rabbit 1.5
Colin 1
Tony 1
Dr. White 1
DDL 1

Iron_Dwarf 0
Kenway 0
Kites 0
sig 0
sprityo 0

1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy. :bighug: The same is true of Iron_Dwarf, Kenway, Kites, and spriyo. I am calling these people civilian until further notice.

2. The two highest voted people were nutella and Quin. nutella was 13% mentioned and Quin was 17% mentioned.

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

4. I'm a lock civilian.

5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.

6. Speaking of Kenway, Kenway was the second person to name Sloonei as a person to draft. There was discussion that that was too evil to be truly evil. I don't agree. There was other discussion that Kenway tries to be as truthful as possible. Appearing blatantly ignorant is one way to accomplish that.

7. Colin was the main person to question all of this, and he got pretty peeved over everything. Getting upset doesn't move me, but context does, and from all of this I do not suspect Colin. I am unhappy that he shat on my exercise, but I respect a man who can stand his ground. He goes back to the neutral pile. What I mean is that I don't think he was deliberately trying to get me to expose myself prematurely.

8. Fuck rabbit.

9. I lied about my own picks (heh heh), but included them in this analysis anyway (heh heh). Why did I do that?

10. I found Marmot's list to be the least believable.

11. I found MacDougall's list to be the most believable.

12. Seriously, a non-player got more votes than sig. Jesus sig. :bighug:

People are going whine about "wine in front of me" and all that, but the fact is that most of the people who contributed to the survey are civilians.

So I don't care.


Votes:

Spoiler: show
[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy
While you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.

I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2708

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Ok this post from Epi is amazing. Good job.

It's brutal statistics, basically. You are using the picks from the civs to infer what the most likely pics from the mafia don were.

Problem is that Dunya is a tryhard, and there is also statistics showing that this level of tryhardness from mafia is nearly unprecedented.

I need to pay more attention to her tho. And to Jay too.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2709

Post by Marmot »

I voted for Kenway in the poll. I want him to join us in Rico's army. :nicenod:
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2710

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Marmot wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pm
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm
Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

sprityo
JJJ
dunya
MM
Cbob

JJJ
random with tweaks (first answer)
(second answer:)
dunya
rdw
Quin
Epi

Cbob
random

Epi
dunya
JJJ
LC
nutella

DDL
Epi
LC
Quin
Colin

MM
lapluie
gwilikers
Tony
Dr. White

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

Kylemii
Quin
dunya OR JJJ
LC OR Epi OR nutella
Wilgy OR lapluie OR Any rym

Tony
dunya
Cbob
JJJ
random

Mac
gwilikers
rdw
dunya
Wilgy

Colin
random

sig
Wilgy
MM
rabbit
Mac

gwilikers
Unknown people

lapluie
MM

LC
Kylemii
nutella
Sloonei
lapluie

Dr. White
MM
random

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Kenway
dunya
Sloonei
Epi
Kylemii
JJJ OR Mac

Kites
dunya
gwilikers
Two non-rym

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Spoiler: show
This is the number of times a player was mentioned. Decimals are owing to the fact that some people said one of a pair or trio, so that point was divided accordingly.

dunya 10.5
JJJ 7
Epi 5.3
Mac 5
rdw 4
Marmot 4
Quin 3
gwilikers 3
LC 2.8
nutella 2.3
lapluie 2.3
Wilgy 2.3
Cbob 2
Kylemii 2
Sloonei 2
rabbit 1.5
Colin 1
Tony 1
Dr. White 1
DDL 1

Iron_Dwarf 0
Kenway 0
Kites 0
sig 0
sprityo 0

1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy. :bighug: The same is true of Iron_Dwarf, Kenway, Kites, and spriyo. I am calling these people civilian until further notice.

2. The two highest voted people were nutella and Quin. nutella was 13% mentioned and Quin was 17% mentioned.

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

4. I'm a lock civilian.

5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.

6. Speaking of Kenway, Kenway was the second person to name Sloonei as a person to draft. There was discussion that that was too evil to be truly evil. I don't agree. There was other discussion that Kenway tries to be as truthful as possible. Appearing blatantly ignorant is one way to accomplish that.

7. Colin was the main person to question all of this, and he got pretty peeved over everything. Getting upset doesn't move me, but context does, and from all of this I do not suspect Colin. I am unhappy that he shat on my exercise, but I respect a man who can stand his ground. He goes back to the neutral pile. What I mean is that I don't think he was deliberately trying to get me to expose myself prematurely.

8. Fuck rabbit.

9. I lied about my own picks (heh heh), but included them in this analysis anyway (heh heh). Why did I do that?

10. I found Marmot's list to be the least believable.

11. I found MacDougall's list to be the most believable.

12. Seriously, a non-player got more votes than sig. Jesus sig. :bighug:

People are going whine about "wine in front of me" and all that, but the fact is that most of the people who contributed to the survey are civilians.

So I don't care.


Votes:

Spoiler: show
[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy
While you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.

I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
The assumption here is that mafia's posts should skew the result, but hopefully the fact most posts (80%) are from town should guarantee some level of accuracy.

I think the biggest problem is that we are trying to infer the whims of just one player, and that player could be some oddball who does not follow community trends for whatever reason, which would flush the whole statistics down the toilet.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2711

Post by Kylemii »

5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.
my purpose wasn't to impress you, the purpose was to give you a thoughtful response in the spirit of the excercise. were i the don in this kind of game I would choose players based on separate non intersecting categories, and my selections represented those categories. If im building a mafia team I'm not gonna just pick my favorite 4 people, I'd have to actually think about it; obviously there'd be variables.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2712

Post by Epignosis »

TonyParkerStark:

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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2713

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

What is funny is that I did notice a relation between myself not getting drafted and almost nobody saying they would draft me, but I never thought of extending that idea to the whole playerbase. Meh.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2714

Post by nutella »

[mention]Epignosis[/mention], there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand :ponder:
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2715

Post by MacDougall »

nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:31 pm @Epignosis @MacDougall @sprityo do you guys have any idea what the post and the "trio of adventuring" stuff in the OP is all about
I think so. It matches my backstory a bit.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2716

Post by Quin »

MacDougall wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm
nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:31 pm @Epignosis @MacDougall @sprityo do you guys have any idea what the post and the "trio of adventuring" stuff in the OP is all about
I think so. It matches my backstory a bit.
It's a reference to L'Arachel, Rennac and Dozla from the Sacred Stones.
Lunalee wrote: Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:13 amQuin's ISO is full of posts that are actually trying to be helpful to the game. This doesn't look like town Quin.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2717

Post by Quin »

nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm @Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand :ponder:
What about 3J? Why single out dunya?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2718

Post by nutella »

Quin wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:10 pm
nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand :ponder:
What about 3J? Why single out dunya?
Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2719

Post by MacDougall »

Is it still night or is it day again? I am confused. Did he just lock the thread briefly at EOD and then open it for night chats?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2720

Post by nutella »

MacDougall wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:17 pm Is it still night or is it day again? I am confused. Did he just lock the thread briefly at EOD and then open it for night chats?
Yeah he just locked temporarily at the vote deadline so nobody could talk from then until the lynch post, then reopened it for night discussion
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2721

Post by Epignosis »

rundontwalk wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:41 pm TonyParker, lol. tonyStarkPrime.

@TonyStarkPrime @gwilikers6

Why do you want Wyvern Rider to join Rico?
Are YOU a Spurs fan?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2722

Post by MacDougall »

nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:18 pm
MacDougall wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:17 pm Is it still night or is it day again? I am confused. Did he just lock the thread briefly at EOD and then open it for night chats?
Yeah he just locked temporarily at the vote deadline so nobody could talk from then until the lynch post, then reopened it for night discussion
Cool, why are you still alive?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2723

Post by MacDougall »

I am amazed that the two players I had the biggest scum reads on were tied for the lynch vote on day 1. I am usually howling at the moon to get my way. I guess it's probably because I was merely lending weight to Dunya's reads who people ACTUALLY trust.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2724

Post by Epignosis »

nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand :ponder:
People who said they would pick one rym player are people I am not inclined to question. I believe that. When I posted my picks, I picked all Syndicate people. Were I the real leader, you damn well better believe I would have take one or two rym players.

So that doesn't bother me.

The people who didn't get named at all are misfits. Again, I am calling them all civilians until further notice. They are not cleared.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2725

Post by Marmot »

Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:24 pm People who said they would pick one rym player are people I am not inclined to question. I believe that. When I posted my picks, I picked all Syndicate people. Were I the real leader, you damn well better believe I would have take one or two rym players.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2726

Post by MacDougall »

I miss when this thread had 20 people in it posting at the same time.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2727

Post by nutella »

Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:24 pm
nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand :ponder:
People who said they would pick one rym player are people I am not inclined to question. I believe that. When I posted my picks, I picked all Syndicate people. Were I the real leader, you damn well better believe I would have take one or two rym players.

So that doesn't bother me.

The people who didn't get named at all are misfits. Again, I am calling them all civilians until further notice. They are not cleared.
....I legitimately do not understand this answer. If you would have picked an RYMer, and you believe that others would have as well, why are you saying that 3 RYMers are "civilian until further notice"?

The way I see it, some people who know certain RYM players named a specific one that they would have picked, but some people (such as myself) who didn't know any of the new RYM players said that they would have picked one of them, more or less at random because they are all equally unfamiliar. So, I guess it follows that the ones who were specifically named have a somewhat higher chance of having been picked, but the ones who weren't should still have a nonzero number in your list (perhaps 1/however many of the new players there are) to account for those of us who said we'd have picked one of the new players.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2728

Post by MacDougall »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:28 am
Not Princess Epi's Lovable Trio of Adventuring
Epignosis - Troubadour
MacDougall - Fighter 1
sprityo - Cleric
[/color]
Wait this got added to the OP. Does this mean that you recruited us Epi?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2729

Post by MacDougall »

dunya
Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay
sig

gwilikers6
rundontwalk

Iron_Dwarf
Kylemii
sprityo
ColinIsCool

Long Con
Dragon D. Luffy
Kenway
Kites

DrWilgy
lapluie
rabbit8

colonialbob
Dr. White
Marmot

TonyStarkPrime
Quin
nutella


For your viewing pleasure.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2730

Post by ColinIsCool »

No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2731

Post by MacDougall »

ColinIsCool wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:42 pm No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.
Is that because Epignosis just stated that he doesn't suspect you?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2732

Post by Epignosis »

Marmot wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pm
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm
Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

sprityo
JJJ
dunya
MM
Cbob

JJJ
random with tweaks (first answer)
(second answer:)
dunya
rdw
Quin
Epi

Cbob
random

Epi
dunya
JJJ
LC
nutella

DDL
Epi
LC
Quin
Colin

MM
lapluie
gwilikers
Tony
Dr. White

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

Kylemii
Quin
dunya OR JJJ
LC OR Epi OR nutella
Wilgy OR lapluie OR Any rym

Tony
dunya
Cbob
JJJ
random

Mac
gwilikers
rdw
dunya
Wilgy

Colin
random

sig
Wilgy
MM
rabbit
Mac

gwilikers
Unknown people

lapluie
MM

LC
Kylemii
nutella
Sloonei
lapluie

Dr. White
MM
random

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Kenway
dunya
Sloonei
Epi
Kylemii
JJJ OR Mac

Kites
dunya
gwilikers
Two non-rym

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Spoiler: show
This is the number of times a player was mentioned. Decimals are owing to the fact that some people said one of a pair or trio, so that point was divided accordingly.

dunya 10.5
JJJ 7
Epi 5.3
Mac 5
rdw 4
Marmot 4
Quin 3
gwilikers 3
LC 2.8
nutella 2.3
lapluie 2.3
Wilgy 2.3
Cbob 2
Kylemii 2
Sloonei 2
rabbit 1.5
Colin 1
Tony 1
Dr. White 1
DDL 1

Iron_Dwarf 0
Kenway 0
Kites 0
sig 0
sprityo 0

1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy. :bighug: The same is true of Iron_Dwarf, Kenway, Kites, and spriyo. I am calling these people civilian until further notice.

2. The two highest voted people were nutella and Quin. nutella was 13% mentioned and Quin was 17% mentioned.

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

4. I'm a lock civilian.

5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.

6. Speaking of Kenway, Kenway was the second person to name Sloonei as a person to draft. There was discussion that that was too evil to be truly evil. I don't agree. There was other discussion that Kenway tries to be as truthful as possible. Appearing blatantly ignorant is one way to accomplish that.

7. Colin was the main person to question all of this, and he got pretty peeved over everything. Getting upset doesn't move me, but context does, and from all of this I do not suspect Colin. I am unhappy that he shat on my exercise, but I respect a man who can stand his ground. He goes back to the neutral pile. What I mean is that I don't think he was deliberately trying to get me to expose myself prematurely.

8. Fuck rabbit.

9. I lied about my own picks (heh heh), but included them in this analysis anyway (heh heh). Why did I do that?

10. I found Marmot's list to be the least believable.

11. I found MacDougall's list to be the most believable.

12. Seriously, a non-player got more votes than sig. Jesus sig. :bighug:

People are going whine about "wine in front of me" and all that, but the fact is that most of the people who contributed to the survey are civilians.

So I don't care.


Votes:

Spoiler: show
[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy
While you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.

I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
First off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote. :rolleyes:

Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.

And maybe dunya is bad, right?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2733

Post by MacDougall »

Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:45 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pm
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm
Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

sprityo
JJJ
dunya
MM
Cbob

JJJ
random with tweaks (first answer)
(second answer:)
dunya
rdw
Quin
Epi

Cbob
random

Epi
dunya
JJJ
LC
nutella

DDL
Epi
LC
Quin
Colin

MM
lapluie
gwilikers
Tony
Dr. White

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

Kylemii
Quin
dunya OR JJJ
LC OR Epi OR nutella
Wilgy OR lapluie OR Any rym

Tony
dunya
Cbob
JJJ
random

Mac
gwilikers
rdw
dunya
Wilgy

Colin
random

sig
Wilgy
MM
rabbit
Mac

gwilikers
Unknown people

lapluie
MM

LC
Kylemii
nutella
Sloonei
lapluie

Dr. White
MM
random

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Kenway
dunya
Sloonei
Epi
Kylemii
JJJ OR Mac

Kites
dunya
gwilikers
Two non-rym

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Spoiler: show
This is the number of times a player was mentioned. Decimals are owing to the fact that some people said one of a pair or trio, so that point was divided accordingly.

dunya 10.5
JJJ 7
Epi 5.3
Mac 5
rdw 4
Marmot 4
Quin 3
gwilikers 3
LC 2.8
nutella 2.3
lapluie 2.3
Wilgy 2.3
Cbob 2
Kylemii 2
Sloonei 2
rabbit 1.5
Colin 1
Tony 1
Dr. White 1
DDL 1

Iron_Dwarf 0
Kenway 0
Kites 0
sig 0
sprityo 0

1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy. :bighug: The same is true of Iron_Dwarf, Kenway, Kites, and spriyo. I am calling these people civilian until further notice.

2. The two highest voted people were nutella and Quin. nutella was 13% mentioned and Quin was 17% mentioned.

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

4. I'm a lock civilian.

5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.

6. Speaking of Kenway, Kenway was the second person to name Sloonei as a person to draft. There was discussion that that was too evil to be truly evil. I don't agree. There was other discussion that Kenway tries to be as truthful as possible. Appearing blatantly ignorant is one way to accomplish that.

7. Colin was the main person to question all of this, and he got pretty peeved over everything. Getting upset doesn't move me, but context does, and from all of this I do not suspect Colin. I am unhappy that he shat on my exercise, but I respect a man who can stand his ground. He goes back to the neutral pile. What I mean is that I don't think he was deliberately trying to get me to expose myself prematurely.

8. Fuck rabbit.

9. I lied about my own picks (heh heh), but included them in this analysis anyway (heh heh). Why did I do that?

10. I found Marmot's list to be the least believable.

11. I found MacDougall's list to be the most believable.

12. Seriously, a non-player got more votes than sig. Jesus sig. :bighug:

People are going whine about "wine in front of me" and all that, but the fact is that most of the people who contributed to the survey are civilians.

So I don't care.


Votes:

Spoiler: show
[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy
While you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.

I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
First off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote. :rolleyes:

Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.

And maybe dunya is bad, right?
In my opinion dunya is a civ for reasons Jimmy has laboured, that she IS one combined with what you've discovered through your analysis is a possible pointer to who is the don. That is to say someone who either isn't aware of her apparent proficiency as a civ player OR someone who chose to let her remain a civ because they either wanted the challenge or felt that there were better options than her.

I think you can rule out a handful of players as the Don at least as a result of this. Namely many of the RYMers, particularly the less confident ones. I could see Jimmy choosing not to pick her for the challenge of it. The rest of the RYMers would pick her imo.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2734

Post by nutella »

ColinIsCool wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:42 pm No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.
I don't understand what other thing(s) you thought he could have done with it (aside from later speculation on teammates when we get a scum flip, which the now-relevant part of the analysis certainly does not preclude). :ponder:
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2735

Post by nutella »

Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:45 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pm
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm
Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

sprityo
JJJ
dunya
MM
Cbob

JJJ
random with tweaks (first answer)
(second answer:)
dunya
rdw
Quin
Epi

Cbob
random

Epi
dunya
JJJ
LC
nutella

DDL
Epi
LC
Quin
Colin

MM
lapluie
gwilikers
Tony
Dr. White

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

Kylemii
Quin
dunya OR JJJ
LC OR Epi OR nutella
Wilgy OR lapluie OR Any rym

Tony
dunya
Cbob
JJJ
random

Mac
gwilikers
rdw
dunya
Wilgy

Colin
random

sig
Wilgy
MM
rabbit
Mac

gwilikers
Unknown people

lapluie
MM

LC
Kylemii
nutella
Sloonei
lapluie

Dr. White
MM
random

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Kenway
dunya
Sloonei
Epi
Kylemii
JJJ OR Mac

Kites
dunya
gwilikers
Two non-rym

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Spoiler: show
This is the number of times a player was mentioned. Decimals are owing to the fact that some people said one of a pair or trio, so that point was divided accordingly.

dunya 10.5
JJJ 7
Epi 5.3
Mac 5
rdw 4
Marmot 4
Quin 3
gwilikers 3
LC 2.8
nutella 2.3
lapluie 2.3
Wilgy 2.3
Cbob 2
Kylemii 2
Sloonei 2
rabbit 1.5
Colin 1
Tony 1
Dr. White 1
DDL 1

Iron_Dwarf 0
Kenway 0
Kites 0
sig 0
sprityo 0

1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy. :bighug: The same is true of Iron_Dwarf, Kenway, Kites, and spriyo. I am calling these people civilian until further notice.

2. The two highest voted people were nutella and Quin. nutella was 13% mentioned and Quin was 17% mentioned.

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

4. I'm a lock civilian.

5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.

6. Speaking of Kenway, Kenway was the second person to name Sloonei as a person to draft. There was discussion that that was too evil to be truly evil. I don't agree. There was other discussion that Kenway tries to be as truthful as possible. Appearing blatantly ignorant is one way to accomplish that.

7. Colin was the main person to question all of this, and he got pretty peeved over everything. Getting upset doesn't move me, but context does, and from all of this I do not suspect Colin. I am unhappy that he shat on my exercise, but I respect a man who can stand his ground. He goes back to the neutral pile. What I mean is that I don't think he was deliberately trying to get me to expose myself prematurely.

8. Fuck rabbit.

9. I lied about my own picks (heh heh), but included them in this analysis anyway (heh heh). Why did I do that?

10. I found Marmot's list to be the least believable.

11. I found MacDougall's list to be the most believable.

12. Seriously, a non-player got more votes than sig. Jesus sig. :bighug:

People are going whine about "wine in front of me" and all that, but the fact is that most of the people who contributed to the survey are civilians.

So I don't care.


Votes:

Spoiler: show
[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy
While you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.

I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
First off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote. :rolleyes:

Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.

And maybe dunya is bad, right?
Bro you need a nap
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2736

Post by MacDougall »

Jimmy seems like his usual civ self but I consider him better at maintaining a civ-like presence when being prolific than dunya.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2737

Post by Marmot »

nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:48 pm
Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:45 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pm
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm
Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

sprityo
JJJ
dunya
MM
Cbob

JJJ
random with tweaks (first answer)
(second answer:)
dunya
rdw
Quin
Epi

Cbob
random

Epi
dunya
JJJ
LC
nutella

DDL
Epi
LC
Quin
Colin

MM
lapluie
gwilikers
Tony
Dr. White

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

Kylemii
Quin
dunya OR JJJ
LC OR Epi OR nutella
Wilgy OR lapluie OR Any rym

Tony
dunya
Cbob
JJJ
random

Mac
gwilikers
rdw
dunya
Wilgy

Colin
random

sig
Wilgy
MM
rabbit
Mac

gwilikers
Unknown people

lapluie
MM

LC
Kylemii
nutella
Sloonei
lapluie

Dr. White
MM
random

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Kenway
dunya
Sloonei
Epi
Kylemii
JJJ OR Mac

Kites
dunya
gwilikers
Two non-rym

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Spoiler: show
This is the number of times a player was mentioned. Decimals are owing to the fact that some people said one of a pair or trio, so that point was divided accordingly.

dunya 10.5
JJJ 7
Epi 5.3
Mac 5
rdw 4
Marmot 4
Quin 3
gwilikers 3
LC 2.8
nutella 2.3
lapluie 2.3
Wilgy 2.3
Cbob 2
Kylemii 2
Sloonei 2
rabbit 1.5
Colin 1
Tony 1
Dr. White 1
DDL 1

Iron_Dwarf 0
Kenway 0
Kites 0
sig 0
sprityo 0

1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy. :bighug: The same is true of Iron_Dwarf, Kenway, Kites, and spriyo. I am calling these people civilian until further notice.

2. The two highest voted people were nutella and Quin. nutella was 13% mentioned and Quin was 17% mentioned.

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

4. I'm a lock civilian.

5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.

6. Speaking of Kenway, Kenway was the second person to name Sloonei as a person to draft. There was discussion that that was too evil to be truly evil. I don't agree. There was other discussion that Kenway tries to be as truthful as possible. Appearing blatantly ignorant is one way to accomplish that.

7. Colin was the main person to question all of this, and he got pretty peeved over everything. Getting upset doesn't move me, but context does, and from all of this I do not suspect Colin. I am unhappy that he shat on my exercise, but I respect a man who can stand his ground. He goes back to the neutral pile. What I mean is that I don't think he was deliberately trying to get me to expose myself prematurely.

8. Fuck rabbit.

9. I lied about my own picks (heh heh), but included them in this analysis anyway (heh heh). Why did I do that?

10. I found Marmot's list to be the least believable.

11. I found MacDougall's list to be the most believable.

12. Seriously, a non-player got more votes than sig. Jesus sig. :bighug:

People are going whine about "wine in front of me" and all that, but the fact is that most of the people who contributed to the survey are civilians.

So I don't care.


Votes:

Spoiler: show
[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy
While you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.

I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
First off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote. :rolleyes:

Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.

And maybe dunya is bad, right?
Bro you need a nap
:haha:

Or maybe some wine!
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2738

Post by MacDougall »

MacDougall wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:41 pm dunya
Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay
sig

gwilikers6
rundontwalk

Iron_Dwarf
Kylemii
sprityo
ColinIsCool

Long Con
Dragon D. Luffy
Kenway
Kites

DrWilgy
lapluie
rabbit8

colonialbob
Dr. White
Marmot

TonyStarkPrime
Quin
nutella


For your viewing pleasure.
[mention]Long Con[/mention] [mention]Kites[/mention] [mention]Kenway[/mention] [mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] would you care to inform me as to why your colour should be greener?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2739

Post by ColinIsCool »

MacDougall wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:44 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:42 pm No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.
Is that because Epignosis just stated that he doesn't suspect you?
No. I think it’s pretty thoughtful analysis though (the section on dunya and JJJ, for example, articulates a small fear I think all of us have) and I think that, even if he did say he suspected me, I’d still find the other bits worth considering.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2740

Post by Epignosis »

Kylemii wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:01 pm
5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.
my purpose wasn't to impress you, the purpose was to give you a thoughtful response in the spirit of the excercise. were i the don in this kind of game I would choose players based on separate non intersecting categories, and my selections represented those categories. If im building a mafia team I'm not gonna just pick my favorite 4 people, I'd have to actually think about it; obviously there'd be variables.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2741

Post by Epignosis »

nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:34 pm
Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:24 pm
nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.

Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand :ponder:
People who said they would pick one rym player are people I am not inclined to question. I believe that. When I posted my picks, I picked all Syndicate people. Were I the real leader, you damn well better believe I would have take one or two rym players.

So that doesn't bother me.

The people who didn't get named at all are misfits. Again, I am calling them all civilians until further notice. They are not cleared.
....I legitimately do not understand this answer. If you would have picked an RYMer, and you believe that others would have as well, why are you saying that 3 RYMers are "civilian until further notice"?

The way I see it, some people who know certain RYM players named a specific one that they would have picked, but some people (such as myself) who didn't know any of the new RYM players said that they would have picked one of them, more or less at random because they are all equally unfamiliar. So, I guess it follows that the ones who were specifically named have a somewhat higher chance of having been picked, but the ones who weren't should still have a nonzero number in your list (perhaps 1/however many of the new players there are) to account for those of us who said we'd have picked one of the new players.
I'm calling them civilians. That my decision. Do with my data as you will.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2742

Post by ColinIsCool »

nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:47 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:42 pm No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.
I don't understand what other thing(s) you thought he could have done with it (aside from later speculation on teammates when we get a scum flip, which the now-relevant part of the analysis certainly does not preclude). :ponder:
My initial reaction was that it would be some of what you describe which I think is very dangerous. I sort of figured that it would go in the stats direction the more I thought about it, but with a different kind of analysis, or perhaps something people would try to use as a “lynching guide.” But I’m pleased to see that it’s not.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2743

Post by Epignosis »

nutella wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:48 pm
Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:45 pm
Marmot wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pm
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm
Spoiler: show

dunya
JJJ
Epi
Mac
rdw

sprityo
JJJ
dunya
MM
Cbob

JJJ
random with tweaks (first answer)
(second answer:)
dunya
rdw
Quin
Epi

Cbob
random

Epi
dunya
JJJ
LC
nutella

DDL
Epi
LC
Quin
Colin

MM
lapluie
gwilikers
Tony
Dr. White

nutella
JJJ
Mac
dunya
Any rym

Kylemii
Quin
dunya OR JJJ
LC OR Epi OR nutella
Wilgy OR lapluie OR Any rym

Tony
dunya
Cbob
JJJ
random

Mac
gwilikers
rdw
dunya
Wilgy

Colin
random

sig
Wilgy
MM
rabbit
Mac

gwilikers
Unknown people

lapluie
MM

LC
Kylemii
nutella
Sloonei
lapluie

Dr. White
MM
random

Quin
DDL
dunya
Epi
LC OR rabbit

Kenway
dunya
Sloonei
Epi
Kylemii
JJJ OR Mac

Kites
dunya
gwilikers
Two non-rym

Iron Dwarf
dunya
rdw
JJJ
Mac

Spoiler: show
This is the number of times a player was mentioned. Decimals are owing to the fact that some people said one of a pair or trio, so that point was divided accordingly.

dunya 10.5
JJJ 7
Epi 5.3
Mac 5
rdw 4
Marmot 4
Quin 3
gwilikers 3
LC 2.8
nutella 2.3
lapluie 2.3
Wilgy 2.3
Cbob 2
Kylemii 2
Sloonei 2
rabbit 1.5
Colin 1
Tony 1
Dr. White 1
DDL 1

Iron_Dwarf 0
Kenway 0
Kites 0
sig 0
sprityo 0

1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy. :bighug: The same is true of Iron_Dwarf, Kenway, Kites, and spriyo. I am calling these people civilian until further notice.

2. The two highest voted people were nutella and Quin. nutella was 13% mentioned and Quin was 17% mentioned.

3. dunya and JJJ are at the top of the list. dunya has a whopping 10.5 mentions- the only double-digit pick. JJJ is second with 7 mentions. Rather than discuss the obvious implication here, I want to point out a different observation: Nobody voted for either of them except Wilgy. Over 58% of the respondents said they would recruit dunya...and none of them voted for her. Not one. And Wilgy didn't respond. Likewise, JJJ was in 39% of the lineups, but nobody at all voted for him. Why is that? Over half the field said they would recruit dunya. Over a third said they would recruit JJJ. That doesn't mean they were recruited, but the numbers implicate them at face value. That should not be ignored, nor should the two highest drafted people get to dismiss accusations against them as "tinfoil" just because they post a lot. I want this to be a point of discussion moving forward to a healthy extent: If you said you would draft dunya or JJJ, why don't you suspect either of them?

4. I'm a lock civilian.

5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.

6. Speaking of Kenway, Kenway was the second person to name Sloonei as a person to draft. There was discussion that that was too evil to be truly evil. I don't agree. There was other discussion that Kenway tries to be as truthful as possible. Appearing blatantly ignorant is one way to accomplish that.

7. Colin was the main person to question all of this, and he got pretty peeved over everything. Getting upset doesn't move me, but context does, and from all of this I do not suspect Colin. I am unhappy that he shat on my exercise, but I respect a man who can stand his ground. He goes back to the neutral pile. What I mean is that I don't think he was deliberately trying to get me to expose myself prematurely.

8. Fuck rabbit.

9. I lied about my own picks (heh heh), but included them in this analysis anyway (heh heh). Why did I do that?

10. I found Marmot's list to be the least believable.

11. I found MacDougall's list to be the most believable.

12. Seriously, a non-player got more votes than sig. Jesus sig. :bighug:

People are going whine about "wine in front of me" and all that, but the fact is that most of the people who contributed to the survey are civilians.

So I don't care.


Votes:

Spoiler: show
[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy
While you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.

I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
First off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote. :rolleyes:

Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.

And maybe dunya is bad, right?
Bro you need a nap
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2744

Post by sig »

Epi what three players do you dislike the most right now?
Epignosis wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:29 pm
1. A non-player (Sloonei) got more votes (two) than sig. Jesus, guy. :bighug:
Jesus guy?


Also wow obviously people missed Scrimmage and Star Wars.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2745

Post by Epignosis »

I've made other mistakes if anybody wants to point them out. I don't give a shit.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2746

Post by sig »

I bet Mac is mafia thoughts?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2747

Post by sig »

Also everyone's saying supertown acting means civ, if you got chosen to be mafia, wouldn't you be more active? Being supertown isn't a civ qualifier at all.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2748

Post by MacDougall »

sig wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:02 pm I bet Mac is mafia thoughts?
Buffy got you worked up huh?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2749

Post by MacDougall »

sig wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:04 pm Also everyone's saying supertown acting means civ, if you got chosen to be mafia, wouldn't you be more active? Being supertown isn't a civ qualifier at all.
Show me where anybody said that?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]

#2750

Post by ColinIsCool »

Something to consider too might be the scene JOH wrote for the aborted lynch. Epi’s character plays a pretty big role in it and sort of interrupts the action. If we assume he’s telling the truth about the lynch switch, then that may suggest it’s an intentional reference to that or depiction of it. Which may suggest that there are, in fact, things to be gleamed from the flavor text - not sure what else, but something to possibly keep in mind?
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