Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]
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- sprityo
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
i do love me some good ole fashioned Statistics, i like the way you brought this around, Epi.
I wish to discuss this with someone, but is there anyone online who is willing?
I wish to discuss this with someone, but is there anyone online who is willing?
- JaggedJimmyJay
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
I don't suspect dunya because her posts look like civilian posts and there are 500 of them.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
i know you all just tried to (literally) murder me in my sleep but please have rico try to recruit me we're the best duo the syndicate has ever seen
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
How about the argument that your post history to this point has featured barely more than nothing despite being of a well-higher-than-nothing count?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
valid.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:43 pmHow about the argument that your post history to this point has featured barely more than nothing despite being of a well-higher-than-nothing count?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Spoiler: show
I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Ok this post from Epi is amazing. Good job.
It's brutal statistics, basically. You are using the picks from the civs to infer what the most likely pics from the mafia don were.
Problem is that Dunya is a tryhard, and there is also statistics showing that this level of tryhardness from mafia is nearly unprecedented.
I need to pay more attention to her tho. And to Jay too.
It's brutal statistics, basically. You are using the picks from the civs to infer what the most likely pics from the mafia don were.
Problem is that Dunya is a tryhard, and there is also statistics showing that this level of tryhardness from mafia is nearly unprecedented.
I need to pay more attention to her tho. And to Jay too.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
I voted for Kenway in the poll. I want him to join us in Rico's army.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
The assumption here is that mafia's posts should skew the result, but hopefully the fact most posts (80%) are from town should guarantee some level of accuracy.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pmWhile you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.Spoiler: show
I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
I think the biggest problem is that we are trying to infer the whims of just one player, and that player could be some oddball who does not follow community trends for whatever reason, which would flush the whole statistics down the toilet.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
my purpose wasn't to impress you, the purpose was to give you a thoughtful response in the spirit of the excercise. were i the don in this kind of game I would choose players based on separate non intersecting categories, and my selections represented those categories. If im building a mafia team I'm not gonna just pick my favorite 4 people, I'd have to actually think about it; obviously there'd be variables.5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.
Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
TonyParkerStark:
Are you a Spurs fan?
Are you a Spurs fan?
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- Dragon D. Luffy
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
What is funny is that I did notice a relation between myself not getting drafted and almost nobody saying they would draft me, but I never thought of extending that idea to the whole playerbase. Meh.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
[mention]Epignosis[/mention], there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.
Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand
Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
It's a reference to L'Arachel, Rennac and Dozla from the Sacred Stones.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
What about 3J? Why single out dunya?nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm @Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.
Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Ask Epi. He singled her out. She did have the most picks by a significant margin, but yes Jay is a fairly close second and the same theory could be applied to him. Idk, I thought earlier about whether the don would have chosen Jay (for the WIFOM or because he's generally a strong civ presence), and it's possible, but he has looked like his supertown self (and claimed not to have been picked, but ofc that means little)Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:10 pmWhat about 3J? Why single out dunya?nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.
Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Is it still night or is it day again? I am confused. Did he just lock the thread briefly at EOD and then open it for night chats?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Yeah he just locked temporarily at the vote deadline so nobody could talk from then until the lynch post, then reopened it for night discussionMacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:17 pm Is it still night or is it day again? I am confused. Did he just lock the thread briefly at EOD and then open it for night chats?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Are YOU a Spurs fan?rundontwalk wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:41 pm TonyParker, lol. tonyStarkPrime.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Cool, why are you still alive?nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:18 pmYeah he just locked temporarily at the vote deadline so nobody could talk from then until the lynch post, then reopened it for night discussionMacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:17 pm Is it still night or is it day again? I am confused. Did he just lock the thread briefly at EOD and then open it for night chats?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
I am amazed that the two players I had the biggest scum reads on were tied for the lynch vote on day 1. I am usually howling at the moon to get my way. I guess it's probably because I was merely lending weight to Dunya's reads who people ACTUALLY trust.
Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
People who said they would pick one rym player are people I am not inclined to question. I believe that. When I posted my picks, I picked all Syndicate people. Were I the real leader, you damn well better believe I would have take one or two rym players.nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.
Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand
So that doesn't bother me.
The people who didn't get named at all are misfits. Again, I am calling them all civilians until further notice. They are not cleared.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
I'm losing faith in this strategy you've cooked up.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
I miss when this thread had 20 people in it posting at the same time.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
....I legitimately do not understand this answer. If you would have picked an RYMer, and you believe that others would have as well, why are you saying that 3 RYMers are "civilian until further notice"?Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:24 pmPeople who said they would pick one rym player are people I am not inclined to question. I believe that. When I posted my picks, I picked all Syndicate people. Were I the real leader, you damn well better believe I would have take one or two rym players.nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.
Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand
So that doesn't bother me.
The people who didn't get named at all are misfits. Again, I am calling them all civilians until further notice. They are not cleared.
The way I see it, some people who know certain RYM players named a specific one that they would have picked, but some people (such as myself) who didn't know any of the new RYM players said that they would have picked one of them, more or less at random because they are all equally unfamiliar. So, I guess it follows that the ones who were specifically named have a somewhat higher chance of having been picked, but the ones who weren't should still have a nonzero number in your list (perhaps 1/however many of the new players there are) to account for those of us who said we'd have picked one of the new players.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Wait this got added to the OP. Does this mean that you recruited us Epi?Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:28 am
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
dunya
Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay
sig
gwilikers6
rundontwalk
Iron_Dwarf
Kylemii
sprityo
ColinIsCool
Long Con
Dragon D. Luffy
Kenway
Kites
DrWilgy
lapluie
rabbit8
colonialbob
Dr. White
Marmot
TonyStarkPrime
Quin
nutella
For your viewing pleasure.
Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay
sig
gwilikers6
rundontwalk
Iron_Dwarf
Kylemii
sprityo
ColinIsCool
Long Con
Dragon D. Luffy
Kenway
Kites
DrWilgy
lapluie
rabbit8
colonialbob
Dr. White
Marmot
TonyStarkPrime
Quin
nutella
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Is that because Epignosis just stated that he doesn't suspect you?ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:42 pm No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.
Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
First off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pmWhile you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.Spoiler: show
I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.
And maybe dunya is bad, right?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
In my opinion dunya is a civ for reasons Jimmy has laboured, that she IS one combined with what you've discovered through your analysis is a possible pointer to who is the don. That is to say someone who either isn't aware of her apparent proficiency as a civ player OR someone who chose to let her remain a civ because they either wanted the challenge or felt that there were better options than her.Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:45 pmFirst off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pmWhile you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.Spoiler: show
I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.
And maybe dunya is bad, right?
I think you can rule out a handful of players as the Don at least as a result of this. Namely many of the RYMers, particularly the less confident ones. I could see Jimmy choosing not to pick her for the challenge of it. The rest of the RYMers would pick her imo.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
I don't understand what other thing(s) you thought he could have done with it (aside from later speculation on teammates when we get a scum flip, which the now-relevant part of the analysis certainly does not preclude).ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:42 pm No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Bro you need a napEpignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:45 pmFirst off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pmWhile you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.Spoiler: show
I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.
And maybe dunya is bad, right?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Jimmy seems like his usual civ self but I consider him better at maintaining a civ-like presence when being prolific than dunya.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:48 pmBro you need a napEpignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:45 pmFirst off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pmWhile you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.Spoiler: show
I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.
And maybe dunya is bad, right?
Or maybe some wine!
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
[mention]Long Con[/mention] [mention]Kites[/mention] [mention]Kenway[/mention] [mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] would you care to inform me as to why your colour should be greener?MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:41 pm dunya
Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay
sig
gwilikers6
rundontwalk
Iron_Dwarf
Kylemii
sprityo
ColinIsCool
Long Con
Dragon D. Luffy
Kenway
Kites
DrWilgy
lapluie
rabbit8
colonialbob
Dr. White
Marmot
TonyStarkPrime
Quin
nutella
For your viewing pleasure.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
No. I think it’s pretty thoughtful analysis though (the section on dunya and JJJ, for example, articulates a small fear I think all of us have) and I think that, even if he did say he suspected me, I’d still find the other bits worth considering.MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:44 pmIs that because Epignosis just stated that he doesn't suspect you?ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:42 pm No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.
Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
I buy this.Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:01 pmmy purpose wasn't to impress you, the purpose was to give you a thoughtful response in the spirit of the excercise. were i the don in this kind of game I would choose players based on separate non intersecting categories, and my selections represented those categories. If im building a mafia team I'm not gonna just pick my favorite 4 people, I'd have to actually think about it; obviously there'd be variables.5. I am not impressed by those who gave branching feedback. The "I-would-pick-him-or-her-or-him-but-not-all-three" sort. If you were the mafia leader, you would have to pick, not waffle. Those who did this specifically are Kylemii, Quin, and Kenway. Therefore Kenway gets removed from my list in the first point.
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
I'm calling them civilians. That my decision. Do with my data as you will.nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:34 pm....I legitimately do not understand this answer. If you would have picked an RYMer, and you believe that others would have as well, why are you saying that 3 RYMers are "civilian until further notice"?Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:24 pmPeople who said they would pick one rym player are people I am not inclined to question. I believe that. When I posted my picks, I picked all Syndicate people. Were I the real leader, you damn well better believe I would have take one or two rym players.nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:07 pm Epignosis, there is at least one serious flaw in your analysis. You clear Iron_Dwarf, Kites, and Kenway for not getting picked, yet several people said that they'd choose one RYMer, and you didn't take that into account as a likelihood that these players would be picked. There is absolutely no reason you should clear these players.
Otherwise you have some decent thoughts. Your dunya analysis is intriguing, though there is a lot of WIFOM involved there. Still seems like a really far-fetched tinfoil based on her playing style so far though, but perhaps I shouldn't discount it out of hand
So that doesn't bother me.
The people who didn't get named at all are misfits. Again, I am calling them all civilians until further notice. They are not cleared.
The way I see it, some people who know certain RYM players named a specific one that they would have picked, but some people (such as myself) who didn't know any of the new RYM players said that they would have picked one of them, more or less at random because they are all equally unfamiliar. So, I guess it follows that the ones who were specifically named have a somewhat higher chance of having been picked, but the ones who weren't should still have a nonzero number in your list (perhaps 1/however many of the new players there are) to account for those of us who said we'd have picked one of the new players.
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- ColinIsCool
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
My initial reaction was that it would be some of what you describe which I think is very dangerous. I sort of figured that it would go in the stats direction the more I thought about it, but with a different kind of analysis, or perhaps something people would try to use as a “lynching guide.” But I’m pleased to see that it’s not.nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:47 pmI don't understand what other thing(s) you thought he could have done with it (aside from later speculation on teammates when we get a scum flip, which the now-relevant part of the analysis certainly does not preclude).ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:42 pm No surprise to many of you, Epi’s exercise did not go in the direction I anticipated in terms of purpose or when it would be useful, so I’ll eat crow there. I am pretty comfortably rescinding my earlier suspicions and putting him in town territory for the time being.
Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
I'm tired as shit and my keyboard is crap.nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:48 pmBro you need a napEpignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:45 pmFirst off, I put this together tonight, during the Night phase. Not when I said I wouldn't vote.Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:48 pmWhile you were busy putting this list together and threatening to not vote, Quin, nutella, dunya, and Jay were all posting and giving solid content to read. People reacted accordingly.Spoiler: show
I don't mean to knock your list, I'm glad you did this. But think about this. What if dunya is not mafia? What if then every member of the mafia team fakely added dunya to their list of would-be-mafia teammates?
Second, I am not calling ANYBODY mafia with this. That isn't it's purpose. In dunya's case, I am questioning why people collectively said they would recruit her but don't suspect her. There's value in that.
And maybe dunya is bad, right?
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Epi what three players do you dislike the most right now?
Also wow obviously people missed Scrimmage and Star Wars.
Jesus guy?
Also wow obviously people missed Scrimmage and Star Wars.
Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
I've made other mistakes if anybody wants to point them out. I don't give a shit.
Stream my music for free: https://epignosis.bandcamp.com/
Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Also everyone's saying supertown acting means civ, if you got chosen to be mafia, wouldn't you be more active? Being supertown isn't a civ qualifier at all.
- MacDougall
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- MacDougall
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- ColinIsCool
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Re: Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Day 1]
Something to consider too might be the scene JOH wrote for the aborted lynch. Epi’s character plays a pretty big role in it and sort of interrupts the action. If we assume he’s telling the truth about the lynch switch, then that may suggest it’s an intentional reference to that or depiction of it. Which may suggest that there are, in fact, things to be gleamed from the flavor text - not sure what else, but something to possibly keep in mind?