Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[Iron_Dwarf]

Iow, IronDwarf knows I'm town and can't be arsed to try

I did bring forth a reason for my suspicion.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

8 hours and only 10 posts.

I love you guys.

Catching up.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Spoiler: show

You would say you know Dragon is scum @MacDougall ? And that if you are wrong you have to die? And if you're right you still might have to die in case you're sacrificing scummate?

Damn you're his teammate.

I am if he's town. My concern is you're doing what I would do and sacrificing scummate for town points. Are you?

rundontwalk is teammates with DDL.

Before I get into this, let me explain why I believe DDL is bad.

First, I got the impression that he was keeping me on his good side by talking up my exercise and wanting to give me more time to devote to it. He's not questioned me once. That sort of thing is designed to keep me comfortable, but it's also meant to keep me comfortable with him.

He agreed with me about the usefulness of my thing.
He agreed with me about the overabundance of people's posts.
He agreed with me about JJJ counting Quin's posts.

That's just what I remember.

Second:

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: Iron Dwarf] aubergine

This came up and I liked the points made, especially Nutella's. Then I looked at his ISO and didn't particularly hate it but didn't love it either. Day 1 is mostly smashing Epi for the don exercise thing, then on day 2 he argues a bit more but gets off Epi's back. Coulc be a calculated move to get out of a lynch nobody is interested on anymore. Then a vote on RDW out of nowhere. Lots of "salad", I think. He is contributing, but not in a way that gives me a good vibe.

Right now I think I have much more civ suspicions than bad ones, so this one is one of the slightly bad ones.

This is full of hedging language ("didn't particularly hate it but didn't love it either," "Could be a calculated move," "I think"), and the irony here is that he calls the post "Lots of salad," despite the fact that DDL tied his vote to not one, not two, but three other people: nutella, me, and rundontwalk.

Spoiler: show

If Sprityo is ring he roleblocks the entire town when killed (delaying our investigations and giving easy kills to the mafia) which makes him a primary candidate for bussing. So his insistence on being an easy lynch (the kind of thing that usually makes people want to lynch you more) and posts that suggest he doesn't care about it could be an attempt to be lynched.

Granted, this is subjective, and Sprityo could just be misinterpreted. But even then, the ring is a player who should be trying to be lynched before their teammates.

I addressed this "good catch," as DDL called it earlier. It's foolish. An efficient mafia team is not interested in getting lynched to role block people. Role blocking everyone is insurance, not a goal.

I have no evidence that the underlined is true. Some have said their votes don't count if they vote first. That's not a boon. Is it at all a stretch to think that sprityo has some weakness to lynches?

Spoiler: show

You would say you know Dragon is scum @MacDougall ? And that if you are wrong you have to die? And if you're right you still might have to die in case you're sacrificing scummate?

Damn you're his teammate.

I am if he's town. My concern is you're doing what I would do and sacrificing scummate for town points. Are you?

I believe rundontwalk is accusing MacDougall of doing what he himself is doing.

Spoiler: show

Why would Mac sacrifice a scummate who currently has zero votes?

Because assumption will be he is town. Every single time I'm scum I sacrifice a scum mate when convenient for me.

Spoiler: show

If dragon is scum is indicative of Mac being town

That is the crappiest reason for a vote I've heard all day.

Anybody can look town if you lynch their scum suspect.

That's because it's not a genuine vote.

Dude I don't care about keeping you confortable or not. I just don't feel the need of adding "but he could be mafia" every time I agree with you, or defend you from bullshit accusations, or analyse people under the possibility that you are civ and they are trying to lynch you. I just do it. I can have the possibility that you are bad in the back of my mind, but I sttill agree with stuff that you say and say it out loud because like hell I'll let "don't trust anyone" rules prevent me from saying what I think.

For the record I do think you are a civ read, though of course I'm not 100% convinced of it, but so far I've seen no big reason to suspect you.

As for RDW, I have a weird view on him. He was my #1 civ in Day 0 due to his early contributions. Then I put him in the shelf and passed on analysing him for the rest of the game. I'm probably going to ISO him soon. Though there's a post I recently quoted from him which looked very civ which means I'm probably not suspecting him anytime soon.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

It's the same reason why I keep saying arguments with other people are civ-civ and stuff. No, this is not some newbie mafia slipping on knowing who the civs are. This is me actually taking civ reads into account and using them to analyse situations, without caring about whether I am reminding people that I'm capable of paranoia at the end of every paragraph.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Mafia is not a children's game lol

it is, it's played in scout camps, but that's also not really the point

They usually play werewolf, not actual mafia. Not to mention by your definition nearly all sports, chess, gymnastics, and a bunch other things are all "for kids".

Werewolf and mafia are the exact same game with different role names.

And i was 13 when I first played mafia (not werewolf) and played with people younger than me.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I'll build a basic case on Epignosis:

His exercise had potential, but in the end was not used to its potential. The primary message still ended up surrounding the players who were named the most frequently. This is meaningless given the conditions of the choices are very different for X civilian responding to Epignosis in the game thread and Y mafia don responding to Jack behind the scenes. His own picks were fake. dunya said hers probably weren't representative of what she'd really do. I doubt my picks are either. With more time to think about it -- clearly as would be possible and prudent in the real scenario -- the choices are more strategic and nuanced. I suspect this applies to numerous civilians.

The don, whoever it is, could have chosen literally anyone. There's no good reason to clear people based on this premise, and there's no good reason to suspect people based on this premise. He didn't follow up much at all on the angle that had potential -- demanding reasons for civilians on drafted players from the drafters.

His role ability was to prevent a lynch. I believe this. He said himself that he thought he was threatened and used it early given that he might not have time to use it later. This leaves room for him to have saved himself, at least by intention, as a mafioso. The civilian possibility is as real as the mafia possibility, but it's a bad reason to give him credit.

He is now shitting in my Corn Flakes for going after "easy targets" all the while casting suspicion upon the guy who says whatever the hell he wants in every post. RDW makes himself an easy target by design, and it wouldn't be the first time I've seen a mafioso try to capitalize on that. It was a common mistake in RYM games. Anyone who wants to cast suspicion on RDW wouldn't struggle to find ways of doing so in his posts, because his posts are all over the place. They are always all over the place.

I am bothered that every time you bring up the exercise thing, you just use Dunya to disqualify it completely. Sounds like you are using her as a strawman. As in, if Dunya is so obviously civ, then the whole exercise is crap and maybe you can even suspect Epi for it.

And this could all be smoke and mirrors to deflect the fact that, other than Dunya, you are the most likely mafioso from the results of it, and likewise, a bunch of people come out with good reasons for being civ. Seems like your approach to being suspected is avoid talking about yourself and deflecting to others whenever you can.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I will probably follow nutella's vote. You can remember this for later or whatever, it's my birthday and I'm having some drinks, and I am barely keeping up with the current thread, let alone go back and catch up. I see this big Epi vs RDW thing with some side folks, and it's much wow.

I stick with my Pegasister. And I'm not going after Epi this time.

Why is this guy still alive?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

AUBERGINE [IF VOTES BETWEEN :52 and :00 COUNT]

[5] colonialbob - Marmot, Kites, TonyStarkPrime, Iron_Dwarf, MacDougall
[1] Iron_Dwarf - gwilikers6
[1] Marmot - sig
[1] speedunyachuck - DrWilgy
[1] Long Con - Dragon D. Luffy
[3] Dr. White - ColinIsCool, speedchuck, rundontwalk
[1] sig - sprityo
[5] lapluie - Quin, nutella, Long Con, JaggedJimmyJay, colonialbob
[1] nutella - Dr. White
[1] JaggedJimmyJay - Epignosis
[1] Long Con - Kylemii

No vote: Kenway, lapluie

Colonialbob still on the block because he hit 5 first.

LC had 2 votes.

[MacDougall]

I'll build a basic case on Epignosis:

His exercise had potential, but in the end was not used to its potential. The primary message still ended up surrounding the players who were named the most frequently. This is meaningless given the conditions of the choices are very different for X civilian responding to Epignosis in the game thread and Y mafia don responding to Jack behind the scenes. His own picks were fake. dunya said hers probably weren't representative of what she'd really do. I doubt my picks are either. With more time to think about it -- clearly as would be possible and prudent in the real scenario -- the choices are more strategic and nuanced. I suspect this applies to numerous civilians.

The don, whoever it is, could have chosen literally anyone. There's no good reason to clear people based on this premise, and there's no good reason to suspect people based on this premise. He didn't follow up much at all on the angle that had potential -- demanding reasons for civilians on drafted players from the drafters.

His role ability was to prevent a lynch. I believe this. He said himself that he thought he was threatened and used it early given that he might not have time to use it later. This leaves room for him to have saved himself, at least by intention, as a mafioso. The civilian possibility is as real as the mafia possibility, but it's a bad reason to give him credit.

He is now shitting in my Corn Flakes for going after "easy targets" all the while casting suspicion upon the guy who says whatever the hell he wants in every post. RDW makes himself an easy target by design, and it wouldn't be the first time I've seen a mafioso try to capitalize on that. It was a common mistake in RYM games. Anyone who wants to cast suspicion on RDW wouldn't struggle to find ways of doing so in his posts, because his posts are all over the place. They are always all over the place.

I am bothered that every time you bring up the exercise thing, you just use Dunya to disqualify it completely. Sounds like you are using her as a strawman. As in, if Dunya is so obviously civ, then the whole exercise is crap and maybe you can even suspect Epi for it.

And this could all be smoke and mirrors to deflect the fact that, other than Dunya, you are the most likely mafioso from the results of it, and likewise, a bunch of people come out with good reasons for being civ. Seems like your approach to being suspected is avoid talking about yourself and deflecting to others whenever you can.

Very good. Very good.

[Long Con]

I will probably follow nutella's vote. You can remember this for later or whatever, it's my birthday and I'm having some drinks, and I am barely keeping up with the current thread, let alone go back and catch up. I see this big Epi vs RDW thing with some side folks, and it's much wow.

I stick with my Pegasister. And I'm not going after Epi this time.

Why is this guy still alive?

Give it time, I'm sure that will change, old chum.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I will probably follow nutella's vote. You can remember this for later or whatever, it's my birthday and I'm having some drinks, and I am barely keeping up with the current thread, let alone go back and catch up. I see this big Epi vs RDW thing with some side folks, and it's much wow.

I stick with my Pegasister. And I'm not going after Epi this time.

Why is this guy still alive?

Give it time, I'm sure that will change, old chum.

Valar Morghulis

[Long Con]

Valar dohaeris

[rundontwalk]

Iow, IronDwarf knows I'm town and can't be arsed to try

I did bring forth a reason for my suspicion.

Wasn't a valid reason. I had like a page exchange with Epi after that post.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just to ensure no time is wasted talking about it moving forward:

I am not silenced. Well, I guess it's possible I'll be silenced when the night ends, but as far as I know I'm not silenced. I am on sabbatical. I'll be back soon enough.

[Kylemii]

do we know if the mafia kill is effected by the speed/priority level of the killer's role?

[Marmot]

Just to ensure no time is wasted talking about it moving forward:

I am not silenced. Well, I guess it's possible I'll be silenced when the night ends, but as far as I know I'm not silenced. I am on sabbatical. I'll be back soon enough.

JaggedJimmyJay doesn't take sabbatical from mafia. Mafia takes sabbatical from him.

[dunya]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....rezzzzz plz

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Just to ensure no time is wasted talking about it moving forward:

I am not silenced. Well, I guess it's possible I'll be silenced when the night ends, but as far as I know I'm not silenced. I am on sabbatical. I'll be back soon enough.

Will you be here before EoD3?

[gwilikers6]

do we know if the mafia kill is effected by the speed/priority level of the killer's role?

I see no reason why it wouldn't be.

[lapluie]

P.s I'm not reading all 86 pages... I'll skim.. & nitpick some to flip & make discussion

Have you not read any pages yet? :O

hii marmot

Yes I have maybe over 10 in total, but im not manually reading all of them, I dont have the patience.
I'm skimming through some... notifications. . Reading Nutella's posts specifically >_>

Hiiii!

Can you read my posts and tell me if I'm acting scummy? I'm worried the others'll catch me.

SCUMMY!!

/s

[rundontwalk]

I would policy lynch Marmot for that post

[Marmot]

I would policy lynch Marmot for that post

I welcome the attention.

[Epignosis]

Other points:

- The end phase was as someone else said a hilarious 'clown fiesta'. So many people constantly switchting votes around.
- This makes me suspicious of Epi. He was one of the main instigators of this. He switched a lot. And he had some sort of theory on DDL and Dr. White but then not really sticking to it.
- JJJ was also constantly switching around to low hanging fruit, people who have few posts which can be related to anything (such as this thread having 85 pages now )
- nutella remains her opportunistic self and follows whatever vote seems fashionable.

How is switching votes around a bad thing? What do you think makes a mafia more comfortable: A static lynch or a dynamic lynch?

My theory on DDL and who now?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just to ensure no time is wasted talking about it moving forward:

I am not silenced. Well, I guess it's possible I'll be silenced when the night ends, but as far as I know I'm not silenced. I am on sabbatical. I'll be back soon enough.

Will you be here before EoD3?

Probably.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Just to ensure no time is wasted talking about it moving forward:

I am not silenced. Well, I guess it's possible I'll be silenced when the night ends, but as far as I know I'm not silenced. I am on sabbatical. I'll be back soon enough.

Will you be here before EoD3?

Probably.

Ok, because I might lynch you in Day 3 depending on how it goes, but I feel bad about lynching someone who is not online.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

do we know if the mafia kill is effected by the speed/priority level of the killer's role?

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]

[rundontwalk]

Tinfoil: [mention]Kylemii[/mention] asking moderator questions like that in public​ is what I'd do as scum for some ultimate WIFOM

[gwilikers6]

I mean it kinda has to be.

[gwilikers6]

Like think of all the other roles that can effect the mafia kill. What would be the point of the speed thing if none of it mattered for the kill?

[Epignosis]

Dear Quin,

I commented on lapluie already, that MK had a substantially lower rate of posts than this one, and that she had civilian BTSC in MK, which, in my experience, encourages activity.

I understand that lazy cases can be right. When I say lazy, I mean that there was little thought put into the accusation. For example, this game will eclipse Mortal Kombat's post count by Day 3. It shouldn't take much to consider that keeping up with 424 posts per phase is easier than keeping up with 1,160 posts per phase.

So when I say 3J is being "lazy," I mean it looks like he's putting a lot of effort into suspecting people, but so many of his points can be dismissed with easy counterarguments. And he's gunning for what I consider to be lynches hardly anybody is going to argue against. I find that problematic.

[sig]

Lap isn't a high poster, however after playing a few games with her I'm reading her as civ. I also really dislike the cfd onto her. I think it was an attempt to save bob who should be lynched post haste tomorrow.

[Long Con]

I'm not really convinced that a cfd usually is for saving a baddie teammate. I think that's just an assumption a lot of people make that doesn't really happen that often at all. In fact I kind of suspect sig a little more for suggesting it.

[colonialbob]

Still waiting for somebody to make an actual case on me.

[Kylemii]

are we for sure past the start of dawn right now?

[sig]

I'm not really convinced that a cfd usually is for saving a baddie teammate. I think that's just an assumption a lot of people make that doesn't really happen that often at all. In fact I kind of suspect sig a little more for suggesting it.

I'm against cfds it's well documented on here that this is my stance and I stand by my beliefs that CFDs mainly help mafia members.

[Jackofhearts2005]

do we know if the mafia kill is effected by the speed/priority level of the killer's role?

Jackofhearts2005

it is

[Jackofhearts2005]

Fire Emblem Night 2

Prince Rico, his knights and their thief rode for Castle Hometown.

"Ayiyiyi! Time to save my daddy."

Little did they know was that they were too late.

************

General Colin and a young Nomadian swordsman named Luffy held the gate. Colin's years of training and military experience showed as he struck down anyone who approached. In contrast, it was Luffy's pure rage that made him so fearsome as he bounced around the battlefield.

A wyvern rider approached. "In the name of my brother, prepare to die!"

"Hold off, kid," Colin told Luffy. "This one's mine."

"I'm no child!" Luffy snapped.

"Maybe not but if you go up against his lance that toothpick of a sword, you might as well be. Now scoot!"

The general fought bravely but in the end, his experience was no match for the strength and reflexes of the wyvern. The first stab wound wasn't so bad but the second was a crit and that was that.

"I guess it was time for retirement...after all."

With that, he faded away as the Badguyia army funneled past to take the castle. Within minutes, the King was their prisoner.

************

King Ricosdad struggled against the dark energy that held him. "I'll never talk!" he gasped.

Pinky shook her head with a smile. "You will tell me where the Fire Emblem is and you will die."

"Uh...don't you mean 'or you will die?'"

"No. No, I don't."

The King screamed in pain as the darkness enveloped him.

************

Elsewhere, a man in a dark cloak did vague dark magic researchy things. Or at least he did before someone punched him in the face.

"Middle?" the cloaked one choked out. "How did you find me?"

"Well, we've been looking into dragons. Following up on leads. That sort of thing. You wouldn't know anything about...dragons, would you, Tony?"

The shaman took a deep breath and then breathed out a stream of fire.

"That's what I'm talking about!" Middle shouted.

Pixels flashed as the shaman morphed into a full sized dragon and the maniac launched himself across the room to avoid each fiery blast. Ultimately, it was the shaman's low skill stat that did him in. He couldn't have actually hit the enemy no matter how many chances he got. Middle on the other hand had strength and skill to spare and it showed in the final blow that severed the dragon's everything.

"I suppose my research will go...unfinished."

And he faded out too.

************

Our boy Rico's dudes (and dudette) arrived at the castle to find Luffy outside, sharpening his sword.

"Sup DDL? Where's my dad?"

The nomadian shook his head.

"Noooooooooooooooooooo! This sucks!"


Tonystarkprime has been killed by the mafia. He was secretly a dragon. (Town)

Coliniscool has been killed by a critical hit. He was a general who came out of retirement. (Town)

[Jackofhearts2005]

Who should join Prince Rico's army?
Poll ended at Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:46 pm
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.


Colin the Fighter
2
9%
Voters: Iron_Dwarf, ColinIsCool
Kenway the Mage
3
14%
Voters: Dragon D. Luffy, Kylemii, Marmot
Kylemii the Sage
3
14%
Voters: nutella, gwilikers6, JaggedJimmyJay
Quin the Myrmidon
0
No votes
Voters: None
Luffy the Myrmidon
3
14%
Voters: speedchuck, colonialbob, sig
Hazel the Pegasus Knight
2
9%
Voters: TonyStarkPrime, Long Con
Tony the Shaman
0
No votes
Voters: None
Wilgy the Pirate
2
9%
Voters: Quin, rundontwalk
Bob the Mercenary
2
9%
Voters: MacDougall, sprityo
Elsie the Pegasus Knight
1
5%
Voters: lapluie
Kites the Archer
0
No votes
Voters: None
Warf the Knight
0
No votes
Voters: None
Lapulie the enemy Thief
0
No votes
Voters: None
Sigmund the enemy Wyvern Rider
2
9%
Voters: Kites, Epignosis
Gwilly the enemy Monk
0
No votes
Voters: None
Are Roy and Marth in this game? (host/not playing/dead)
2
9%
Voters: dunya, Jackofhearts2005

[gwilikers6]

Hmmm I didn't get a result from my power last night...

[sig]

These night results are interesting.

[Kylemii]

rip tsp and colin

did anyone fuck with my targeting last night? plz be honest, i won't be mad

[lapluie]

nooo tps; __;

[lapluie]

OK WHAT 2 people are dead.??

[MacDougall]

OK WHAT 2 people are dead.??

It's an enormous role madness game. How is this a shock to you?

[Epignosis]

OK WHAT 2 people are dead.??

Two people died in a lynch in my game.

Now I am starting to doubt you.

[Kylemii]

OK WHAT 2 people are dead.??

colin was killed by a critical hit, which means he was targeted by a myrmidon, or... something else? sniper? but it mentions stabbing...

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] [mention]Quin[/mention]

did either of you have reason to suspect colin?

though the flavor text also mentions the wyvernrider??

it also seems like ddl and colin were fighting alongside each other, i really don't get the implications there. maybe targeting shenanigans? why was he stabbed twice?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I targeted Bob last night. So nothing to do with Colin afaik.

I did read him as town at some point but it was a day 1 thing and I wasn't putting much thought on him recently.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Actually I gather that Sig was the one who offed Colin.

[lapluie]

OK WHAT 2 people are dead.??

Two people died in a lynch in my game.

Now I am starting to doubt you.

honestly forgot about that, why Colin tho? I barely got to play the game with him ;_;

[lapluie]

Actually I gather that Sig was the one who offed Colin.

why do you think so??
did he say anything about Colin before the kill happend ?