Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[Dragon D. Luffy]

For reference:

Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6

[speedchuck]

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] You know Occam's Razor? That nifty tool that says the correct solution to a problem is the one that makes the fewest assumptions? We can look at that with RDW.

For RDW to be town, we have to assume that he doesn't know who scum is and has made poor (uninformed) decisions.
For RDW to be scum, we have to assume that he's been trying to save his teammates, that nobody on the team BTSC has been able to sway him into bussing, that he has no concept of bussing to begin with, etc.

RDW's vote tracking has been awful. Townies are known to do that. I actually don't know scum to do that, assuming they have a decent grasp of the game, and assuming that they have access to BTSC.

RDW has hit me with town tone all game, and the abysmal vote tracking isn't really a point against him IMO.

He would have no problem throwing any of his teammates under the bus if it looked like a good opportunity for him. I dunno if voting works differently where you’ve played most, but on RYM, a lot of players would vote specifically to get a reaction out of someone. Rdw is an instigator. It’s not that he doesn’t see the logic of things, it’s more that he plays by getting reactions out of other players. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

His meta also points to what I'm seeing.

I get your case, I understand why it looks strong, but this is why I'm not going to follow you on it.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Sig's votes

Day 1: starts a rabbit8 wagon in the middle of the day. No change.
Day 2: votes Kenway. Then Marmot immediately after. Stays on Marmot the rest of the day.
Day 3: shows up in the last minute to throw a vote on LC, and ignores the other wagons.
Day 4: early Wilgy adopter. Revotes WIlgy for some reason later. Leaves.
Day 5: 4th vote on Quin. Bussing?
Day 6: Middle RDW vote then vanishes.

Is it just me or did Jack actually have two baddies appear on Badguya in the OP?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Dragon D. Luffy You know Occam's Razor? That nifty tool that says the correct solution to a problem is the one that makes the fewest assumptions? We can look at that with RDW.

For RDW to be town, we have to assume that he doesn't know who scum is and has made poor (uninformed) decisions.
For RDW to be scum, we have to assume that he's been trying to save his teammates, that nobody on the team BTSC has been able to sway him into bussing, that he has no concept of bussing to begin with, etc.

RDW's vote tracking has been awful. Townies are known to do that. I actually don't know scum to do that, assuming they have a decent grasp of the game, and assuming that they have access to BTSC.

RDW has hit me with town tone all game, and the abysmal vote tracking isn't really a point against him IMO.

He would have no problem throwing any of his teammates under the bus if it looked like a good opportunity for him. I dunno if voting works differently where you’ve played most, but on RYM, a lot of players would vote specifically to get a reaction out of someone. Rdw is an instigator. It’s not that he doesn’t see the logic of things, it’s more that he plays by getting reactions out of other players. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

His meta also points to what I'm seeing.

I get your case, I understand why it looks strong, but this is why I'm not going to follow you on it.

Point taken.

What do you think of Sig?

[speedchuck]

What do you think of Sig?

I buy your vote tracking argument on him better than RDW's. He was a part of a lynch that was clearly a bus, and my mama always told me to beware the 4th-or-so vote on a lynch. The rest looks opportunistic and lurk-ish.

But I'd have to look at his actual posts, and I'll see about doing that soon.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

[mention]sig[/mention]

Who have you tried to kill so far?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Epi trusts me since I'm awesome. OR a lot of other reasons.

1. He knows mafia wouldn't pick me
2. He's mafia and we're not on the same team
3. He assumes any mafia worth their salt wouldn't pick someone who always gets lynched. (Which is dumb since I'm an amazing scum I build bandwagons and make the civs pay for them!)
4. YOLO
5. I came in very civvie
6. Ask him.
7. Since I'm amazing.


linki: Dunya my dearest are you mafia?

1. He knows mafia wouldn't pick me

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Epi and Collins is civ on civ

One of the supertown people is mafia no doubt

the other mafia are lurking

Rabbit's gone AWALL which is weird.

For my shots I'm tempting to start trimming off no posters thoughts?

This post is disgusting.

[Kites]

@gwilikers6 what does Bishop do specifically, i have to choose between that and Valkyrie Knight for my promotion, albeit i might just not promote

he tells us and you promote to bishop, you can confirm if it’s true or not

Although I’m not really opposed to this if that’s a route you’d like to take. I just wouldn’t reveal first, naturally.

you don’t have to but it’s fool proof way to confirm you’re a civ. unless you both are scum lol

being secretive about night actions looks bad now tho cos of lap and quin

If that’s what spirit ends up promoting to, I’m down. I just figure my monk role was confirmed enough times that there’s really no need for me to confirm another one, especially when it’s not an info-getting role. I just see no reason to let scum know what I am right now.

wait are you saying that mafia can’t use the draft role powers? how do you know this? i read the rules and there’s only a part about fake backstories but nothing about mafia being unable to use the powers

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I see the point in Epi's exercise, but I don't think Collins not doing it is necessarily scummy, like maybe it's a good day 1 vote, but he's being active so I don't know.

I like that White is arguing with Jay, but if I'm being honest I've just kind off skimmed the argument.

RDW seems to have stopped posting as much as before, I think Mac was scum reading him? What happened with that (Or was that a read on Kyle)

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I like mac's posts, he sounds really genuine here compared to the other game he was just mafia in

That's interesting lapluie is there anything more specific to this or is it all tone?

linki: Why is nobody paying attention to me.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Lap isn't a high poster, however after playing a few games with her I'm reading her as civ. I also really dislike the cfd onto her. I think it was an attempt to save bob who should be lynched post haste tomorrow.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

These night results are interesting.

[Iron_Dwarf]

Dope.

Says the person who criticized me for reacting to the previous scum lynch.

[sprityo]

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention]

DO YOU UNDERSTAND MY GUT NOW?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I think Marmot is scum and he is my preferred lynch.

I could go for this as well

Also I want us to think about Jay's death some more, the mafia had the most to gain through lynching him and I seem to recall MAc and Epi pushing his lynch.

Mac is imo seen as one of the best scum players as is Epi why wouldn't they be picked?

If someone who's been around the block before had anything to do with the mafia pick Mac would be high up he won the GoC in 2015 (?) as well as many other games as mafia. He's also seems to be leading us on a path of destruction.

IF we don't get results soon I suggest looking back over Epi, Nutella, and Mac. I wouldn't be surprised if we had one mafia within that group.

Lists every Jay voter and says one of them is likely bad. ZZZZ

Omg nooooooo another double kill
EVERYBODY FOCUS we got to kill atleast 1 fricken mafia

Why WILGY?
Is it because he just being wilgy, cus I think we should go for epi

You basically came in here to drop a vote and that's it.

That's how Lap plays, I should know I vigged her last game for thinking she was scum.

The case on Wilgy is basically he went after dunya and parroted how he plays as a civ according to JJJ. I also dislike how he's flying under the radar and being less zany than he normally is.

Lap defense.

I think we could've seen a Quin save last night and wouldn't be opposed to voting for him today.

Waffly language. Specially since he was part of the save.

I'm highly doubtful lap is mafia and I'd rather we not lybch her.

More lap defense.

I'd rather lynch Kenway than Quin.

Voting Quin but hey how about kenway?

Nah as much as I hate RDW right now lapluie looks worse.

Fuck with cops not giving results. This is grounds for policy lynch in most places.

[VOTE: lapluie] aubergine

I don't like this at all. I think out of Lap vs RDW, rdw is mafia.

I agree with RDW here. The word usage here is weird. Why saying he is mafia "out of the two"? Does it mean they are both mafia but RDW is the worse?

[Kylemii]

[mention]sprityo[/mention] if you're still up in the air about it I'd take it as a personal favor if you try to remain as a close to a foot bound doctor as possible for synergistic purposes. Though that obviously becomes less relevant if epignosis chose mage knight, (assuming mage knight also has an elfire type spell, which it might not)

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I just listed every post that looked pingy. Confirmation bias applies a lot here. Don't take it for granted that Sig is bad.

His MO seems to have been defend lap and throw Quin under the bus. More believable for a baddie than just defend everyone, I give you that Speedchuck. Saying out loud he thinks lap is bad is safer than showing up at the last second to save her. Now that lap flipped bad, Sig can say he was staying true to himself.

The case here isn't that he has done anything terrible, but more like he hasn't done anything great.

[speedchuck]

The case here isn't that he has done anything terrible, but more like he hasn't done anything great.

But this is what I usually look for.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

he thinks lap is good*

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Dragon D. Luffy

DO YOU UNDERSTAND MY GUT NOW?

I don't get the reference.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Dragon D. Luffy

DO YOU UNDERSTAND MY GUT NOW?

I don't get the reference.

Oh nvm I see your post about Sig.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

The problem about having a gut read that Sig is bad is that this is as natural as breathing.

[gwilikers6]

@gwilikers6 what does Bishop do specifically, i have to choose between that and Valkyrie Knight for my promotion, albeit i might just not promote

he tells us and you promote to bishop, you can confirm if it’s true or not

Although I’m not really opposed to this if that’s a route you’d like to take. I just wouldn’t reveal first, naturally.

you don’t have to but it’s fool proof way to confirm you’re a civ. unless you both are scum lol

being secretive about night actions looks bad now tho cos of lap and quin

If that’s what spirit ends up promoting to, I’m down. I just figure my monk role was confirmed enough times that there’s really no need for me to confirm another one, especially when it’s not an info-getting role. I just see no reason to let scum know what I am right now.

wait are you saying that mafia can’t use the draft role powers? how do you know this? i read the rules and there’s only a part about fake backstories but nothing about mafia being unable to use the powers

That's not what I'm saying, although it does say that they promote immediately. So I guess the only way it wouldn't confirm spirit is if he had already promoted to bishop as scum at the beginning of the game.

[Kenway]

Let's vote out sig tomorrow

[Kites]

[mention]gwilikers6[/mention]
oh cool i had missed that

you’re civ

[sprityo]

The problem about having a gut read that Sig is bad is that this is as natural as breathing.

i mean he got lynched day 1 of phenon when he had the ONE ROLE in the entire setup that helps you from getting bandwagoned and lynched

but that's none of my business

[sprityo]

Day 1

[6] nutella - MacDougall, gwilikers6, dunya, ColinIsCool, rundontwalk, JaggedJimmyJay
[2] Epignosis - Kites, Iron_Dwarf
[6] Quin - Dragon D. Luffy, nutella, , colonialbob, Marmot, Kylemii, Long Con
[1] rabbit8 - sig
[1] ColinIsCool - Epignosis
[1] Kylemii - TonyStarkPrime
[1] TonyStarkPrime - Kenway
[1] dunya - DrWilgy

No vote: Dr. White, lapluie, Quin, rabbit8, sprityo

-------------------------------------------
Day 2

CBob - Kites, Tony, Marmot, Iron, Mac
Lap - Quin, Nutella, LC, Jimmy, CBob
Dr White - Colin, Speed, RDW
LC - DDL, Kyle
Marmot - Sig
Speed - Wilgy
Iron - GWilly
Sig - Sprityo
Nutella - Dr White
Jimmy - Epi
--------------------------------------

Day 3

[6] JaggedJimmyJay - Dragon D. Luffy, McDougall, Epignosis, sprityo, Marmot, DrWilgy
[6] Iron_Dwarf - colonialbob, speedchuck, nutella, gwilikers6, JaggedJimmyJay, Kylemii
[1] sig - Kenway
[1] DrWilgy - Long Con
[3] nutella - Iron_Dwarf, Quin, lapluie
[1] rundontwalk - Kites
[1] gwilikers6 - rundontwalk

No vote: sig (but a good effort)

------------------------

Day 4

[9] DrWilgy - sig, Kites, Iron_Dwarf, Marmot, gwilikers6, Dragon D. Luffy, Quin, rundontwalk, Speedchuck
[6] Quin - lapluie, sprityo, nutella, Kylemii, colonialbob, Epignosis

--------------------------------------

[8] Quin - Marmot, Nutella, Dragon D. Luffy, Sig, speedchuck, gwilikers6, Kylemii, Kites
[4] Iron_Dwarf - rundontwalk, sprityo, quin, Epignosis
[1] Nutella - lapluie
[1] Marmot - Iron_Dwarf
[1] Kenway - colonialbob

No vote: Kenway


---------------------------

[6] lapluie - sprityo, nutella, rundontwalk, gwilkkers6, Epignosis, Kylemii
[4] rundontwalk - colonialbob, Kites, sig, Dragon D. Luffy
[2] nutella - Iron_Dwarf, Speedchuck

Not voting: Kenway, lapluie

---------------------------

We need sloon to replace kenway btw. or someone to repace him


blue is dead
red is mafia
green is people i feel fairly confident are town

i wanna see what happens when i knock RDW, Cbob, Kyle, and nutella off the lists of possibilities, represented in yellow are 'not likely mafia'

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] what do you make of this by the way? what would you change

[rundontwalk]

The problem about having a gut read that Sig is bad is that this is as natural as breathing.

Explain?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

The problem about having a gut read that Sig is bad is that this is as natural as breathing.

Explain?

If you made a museum fo mislynches in this site the main attraction would be big portrait of Sig screaming "I'm a civ!"

[sig]

The problem about having a gut read that Sig is bad is that this is as natural as breathing.

Explain?

If you made a museum fo mislynches in this site the main attraction would be big portrait of Sig screaming "I'm a civ!"

lol, true but very amusing. My meta is my shield and also my worst enemy. A Shinemy?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Fire Emblem Night 6

Our boy Rico planned to charge the enemy because he hadn’t been paying attention to the cutscenes between missions.

Speedie proposed a different plan. She split the army into two groups. She took Ron, Hazel, Kylemii, Kenway and half the uncontrollable green units to the west gate of Fort Supatown. Sloonei and Rico would take the rest of the troops and hold the east gate. Sloonei and Rico agreed with this plan until ten minutes later, when they noticed all their troops with actual names had gone missing.

************

Kites looked down at her red uniform with skulls all over it. “Sigmund, can I ask you something?

“Shoot.”

“Are...are we the baddies?”

“What? No. Of course not. We’re doing this for family. Get on.”

Kites did as she was told and the Wyvern took off.

************

Dunya, Luffy and Gwilly climbed the long flight of stairs to the fort’s tallest tower.

“We’re going to be in so much trouble,” Gwilgy whispered.

“Nobody asked you to come, Goldilocks,” Dunya pointed out.

“Oh leave him alone,” Luffy snapped. “He’s just scared.”

Dunya stopped and squinted at Luffy. “You know Gwilly’s a boy right?”

“Wonderful. Did you use your thiefly observation skills to figure out my gender?”

“...Yes.”

When the group reached the top of tower, they stepped out onto the rampart. Hazel wizzed by with Sig and Kites hot on her tail.

“See?” Dunya asked. “Hazel’s not in her spot. It’s no big deal.”

Hazel’s pegasus shot forward, keeping her just out of Kites’s range. As long as she didn’t stop, Kites wouldn’t get a chance to shoot but she couldn’t do anything as Sigmund made slight detours to slaughter the green NPC defenders. Now or never. She turned and began hurling javelins. Kites took aim and fired back. Just one little arrow.

That arrow was torn apart by a much bigger arrow. “Back off, level fodder,” Bob shouted from the back of his horse. “You hurt a hair on that pretty lady’s head and I’ll fill you and your ride full of wood.”

“Phrasing, Colonel?” Hazel shouted back with a smile.

Up on the tower, Luffy stepped up on the ledge. He drew his sword, looking down as Bob and Hazel cornered the wyvern rider and his archer companion.

“What are you doing?” Gwilly asked his friend.

Luffy took a deep breath. “What I have to.” He jumped.

Luffy landed on the wyvern’s neck and engaged both Sigmund and Kites in one of those matrixy fight sequences that feel a little too scripted. The wyvern was having none of it, though, and crashed into the ground.

Thumb frowned as his soldiers swarmed the crash site. Such a talented and driven swordsman. It was a shame he wouldn’t be spared. Then again, Luffy would never have given up. He had to be put down. With a swing of his axe, that’s exactly what Thumb did.

Dragon D Luffy has been killed by the mafia. He was a revenge driven warrior. (Town)

[nutella]

daaaaang that was dramatic, RIP DDL


so... Kites targeted me with a kill attempt and sig targeted....??? these things are hard to read

[Jackofhearts2005]

Recruit plz. Actions due by 6:15 pm CST. Host post around 8 pm.
Poll runs till Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:32 am
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

You may select 1 option


Bob the Mercenary
3
21%
Voters: sprityo, colonialbob, speedchuck
Warf the Knight
0
No votes
Voters: None
Sigmund the enemy Wyvern Rider
1
7%
Voters: sig
Kites the enemy Archer
3
21%
Voters: Dragon D. Luffy, Iron_Dwarf, Kites
It's like getting picked last at sportsball, right? Disgusting. (host/dead/non)
7
50%
Voters: dunya, Marmot, lapluie, Scotty, JaggedJimmyJay, DrWilgy, Jackofhearts2005
Total votes: 14


Bob wins the RNG prize.

[colonialbob]

Sig explain yoself

[gwilikers6]

The shit in there is way too random to actually be indicative of night actions. I am curious if sig targeted someone, but let’s not crucify him over flavor text.

[sprityo]

[VOTE: Sig] aubergine this shouldve happened days ago

[gwilikers6]

Spirit, what did you upgrade to?

[gwilikers6]

[mention]rundontwalk[/mention] who did you protect and why not DDL?

[sprityo]

Spirit, what did you upgrade to?

i didnt pick yet but ill probably pick valkyrie since i get to keep my protect in addition to a new power

[gwilikers6]

Spirit, what did you upgrade to?

i didnt pick yet but ill probably pick valkyrie since i get to keep my protect in addition to a new power

So you used your cleric role last night instead of upgrading? Who did you protect?

[sprityo]

Spirit, what did you upgrade to?

i didnt pick yet but ill probably pick valkyrie since i get to keep my protect in addition to a new power

So you used your cleric role last night instead of upgrading? Who did you protect?

who do you think?

[rundontwalk]

@rundontwalk who did you protect and why not DDL?

Speedchuck. He's a cop right?

[rundontwalk]

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] did you ID anyone?

[rundontwalk]

[VOTE: Sig] aubergine this shouldve happened days ago

Personally not interested in a runaway sig wagon

[sprityo]

[VOTE: Sig] aubergine this shouldve happened days ago

Personally not interested in a runaway sig wagon

youre right, i should vote you today instead

[rundontwalk]

[VOTE: Sig] aubergine this shouldve happened days ago

Personally not interested in a runaway sig wagon

youre right, i should vote you today instead

If you'd like, but my point is the day just started and you're trying to start a wagon on sig. I think he's scum but I don't want a situation where scum just pile on him and breeze through day

[rundontwalk]

Let's make scum work for it

[sprityo]

im not starting a wagon, im merely putting my vote where i want it

i guess we'll look out for pile on wagons then yeah? its a good thing we dot have hammer lynches

[Jackofhearts2005]

Hammer lynches gave me ptsd