Pikachu Tribe - Day 9

[Epignosis]

I want you all to consider the Night kills. If LC is bad, start thinking about who on the other plane of existence is bad too.

How would this conversation start?

I have already given you a place to start.

However, if there are two mafia teams, you will really have to put your thinking caps on.

Assuming one mafia team, LC and his crew killed nijuukyugou Day 1. Why? Safe kill. Who believes in safe kills?

[DharmaHelper]

I want you all to consider the Night kills. If LC is bad, start thinking about who on the other plane of existence is bad too.

How would this conversation start?

I have already given you a place to start.

However, if there are two mafia teams, you will really have to put your thinking caps on.

Assuming one mafia team, LC and his crew killed nijuukyugou Day 1. Why? Safe kill. Who believes in safe kills?

Boomslang wouldn't kill his would-be-bride would he?
What about LoRab?

[Epignosis]

I want you all to consider the Night kills. If LC is bad, start thinking about who on the other plane of existence is bad too.

How would this conversation start?

I have already given you a place to start.

However, if there are two mafia teams, you will really have to put your thinking caps on.

Assuming one mafia team, LC and his crew killed nijuukyugou Day 1. Why? Safe kill. Who believes in safe kills?

Boomslang wouldn't kill his would-be-bride would he?
What about LoRab?

I think Boomslang would. He's like MP. MP would kill Spacedaisy without any problem.

I don't know why you are asking about Lorab.

[DharmaHelper]

I want you all to consider the Night kills. If LC is bad, start thinking about who on the other plane of existence is bad too.

How would this conversation start?

I have already given you a place to start.

However, if there are two mafia teams, you will really have to put your thinking caps on.

Assuming one mafia team, LC and his crew killed nijuukyugou Day 1. Why? Safe kill. Who believes in safe kills?

Boomslang wouldn't kill his would-be-bride would he?
What about LoRab?

I think Boomslang would. He's like MP. MP would kill Spacedaisy without any problem.

I don't know why you are asking about Lorab.

Because scanning the names on the other end of the world she's the one I felt most comfortable bringing up.

[nutella]

mmm nice job guys on analyzing the townfirms from LC's role

[S~V~S]

This is who is on the other side.

Boomslang
DrWilgy
insertnamehere
Jackofhearts2005
Kylemii
LoRab
Marmot
nijuukyugou
Scotty
sig
Sloonei
Spacedaisy

I think basing who would do what when the victim won't actually die is a bit more complex than normal meta.

Off the bat, with little thought, I could see LoRab, Marmot or Scotty killing someone quiet or non threatening, especially if she picks up steam as she goes along like Niju, out of the gate. This way when she starts to become more involved and astute, she will die when they need her to die. I see all of them as long term planners. Sloonei as well for that matter, I could see as someone who plans ahead. Possibly Daisy. Although Daisy has been busy IRL, so if bad, not sure how much of the process she would have been involved in.

I could see Boom killing her if she said something about him, or more likely if she just reads him well enough, out of proximity but ONLY if she were to perma-die. Not sure he would kill her for these reasons if she was only half dead because his reason to kill her would still exist.

I don't have a lot of meta on Jack.

INH, Wilgy, Kyle and sig all play more like I do, one day at a time, and kill more for mitigation of personal risk, or making a splash, as opposed to the long haul. That would be harder with people not dying. I try to be as unpredictable as possible, although the one or two times I NKed low posters still gets Epis eye whenever a low poster is NKed, lol. So I would think, as Niju is an unexpected target, any of these guys could have went with someone for random reasons. But I also don't think she is a splashy target, so

The other three kills are Scotty, Jack and INH.

If there are two Mafias, and they alternate, this same group/person is likely to have killed Jack, he was night 3.

My main recollection of Jack was the one game we played together where he was really bad. So I am not sure about what in his civ game would draw an NK. It is possible he could have also been low participation due to hosting his game? I don't know about everyone else, but I would probably not NK someone who was hosting a game I was playing. So who over there is and is not playing Fire Emblem? Or am I off base and it is more likely to be someone who IS playing that game?

If two teams then Scotty and INH were probably killed by the second team (or an SK). Scottys reveal might indicate a second team, that role "sounds" fairly bad, but I personally don't believe that whether or not a role "sounds" bad is 100% reliable in the context of this game.

These two, also, based on past gameplay, are more likely to have been killed for a reason than the other two, who I presume to have been quieter, although we can't know that for sure. Both can be very astute, INH unpredictaby so, and would be good people to set up for a future permakill when the time is right. Scotty was the first of them killed, and if he was not already lynched for that role reveal, and he were Permakilled tonight, I would most def posit two teams. If I were bad, I would very likely like to get rid of either of these guys early.

So doing this was helpful to me. I actually think there is very likely to be two different kills taking place, because I can see the same person killing Niju and Jack (especially if Jack is distracted by hosting), but not necessarily INH and Scotty. And I can see the reverse, the same person killing Scotty and INH, but not Niju and Jack.

Maybe a team and an SK? And the SK happens to be over there?

*Waits for someone to come in and tell me something that happened 3 days ago negates all of this, cries in advance preparation*

[S~V~S]

Oh wait, I forgot we have kills too,most likely, so either it IS two Mafias, or it is One Mafia and and an SK, and we are only getting every other night kills here, which could be possible without us knowing? It is all an exercise in conjecture until we know what happened here at night.

So the above ^^ is in a vacuum.

I still think a different thought process went into killing Scotty and INH than did Niju and Jack, fwiw.

[S~V~S]

While I am at it, these are the people in FE also playing this game. Those in the other tribe are highlighted in sarc

Quin
Dragon D. Luffy
nutella
DrWilgy
Epignosis
sig
sprityo
colonialbob
Long Con
Marmot


There are a lot of lists in that game, I think the one I used was the full player list, if I missed anyone, sorry.

I think the orange players are LESS likely to have killed Jack. I would probably not NK someone who was hosting a game I was playing, cause: guilt, not wanting to piss a host off ha ha, but that is me. Does anyone think it that they are MORE likely to kill a host of a game they are playing, or that I am over analyzing (way way possible ha ha)?

Looking at that list, I also think that, of those three, Marmot is the least likely. I could see him being more influenced by the guilt/loyalty thing.

And that is it for this AM, promise.

[juliets]

Please note that night ends today at 6:06 pm eastern standard time. Please send all night actions to me and Golden by 4:06 pm eastern standard time.

[sprityo]

2/3 of those orange players are dead so I don’t think that really affects anything

And sig doesn’t seen like the kind of player to not kill someone because they’re a host

[S~V~S]

It was a tangent thought, one of the things I would consider in a "woulda" scenario.

Epi seemed to be trying to draw us to a conclusion about who would kill Niju, his favorite topic. He seemed annoyed when DH brought up LoRab, so he apparently has a candidate in mind, I wish he would just spit it out. Because one of my candidates for Niju/Jack killer is in fact LoRab on a solely meta basis, since that is really all we have to go on. With the caveat of who ever is killed isn't actually dead.

I wonder if they have any permadead people? Since we can't see their lynches.

[speedchuck]

I'm also in FE.

[S~V~S]

Did you replace someone? I think I used the original list, but could have used the wrong one. Anyone else I missed? Although it really was an academic exercise, trying to guess who would kill who with no thread knowledge at all.

[speedchuck]

Did you replace someone? I think I used the original list, but could have used the wrong one. Anyone else I missed? Although it really was an academic exercise, trying to guess who would kill who with no thread knowledge at all.

Yeah, I did replace in. I don't think there have been other replacements.

[nutella]

yeah svs and out of that list the people still alive in that game are me, epi, sig, sprit, cbob, and speed. not that I think this tangent matters lol

[S~V~S]

Yeah, it really doesn't much matter. Although it was interesting trying to figure out who might kill who with zero thread info.

It did convince me that I think there are probably 2 killers. Maybe one kills there odd, here even, and vice versa or something like that. Hard to say with no thread knowledge of who was NKed here. But I do not think that Niju/Jack and Scotty/INH were killed by the same people, two very different kinds of targets, imo.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I don't think I'd mind killing Jack for that.

If anything I'd be motivated to kill him since it might make him process days faster.

[Epignosis]

It was a tangent thought, one of the things I would consider in a "woulda" scenario.

Epi seemed to be trying to draw us to a conclusion about who would kill Niju, his favorite topic. He seemed annoyed when DH brought up LoRab, so he apparently has a candidate in mind, I wish he would just spit it out. Because one of my candidates for Niju/Jack killer is in fact LoRab on a solely meta basis, since that is really all we have to go on. With the caveat of who ever is killed isn't actually dead.

I wonder if they have any permadead people? Since we can't see their lynches.

I had no one particular person in mind, and I wasn't annoyed regarding DH mentioning Lorab. I can't seem to recall much interaction between her and the victim in previous games ever. I didn't know if DH had some reason for mentioning Lorab like he did with Boomslang.

Your big post is the kind of thing I was hoping to see- other perspectives on who might do what and why. I appreciated the read, and I would add to your caveat the notion that there is probably a cognitive bias operating in the back of the civilians' minds: That victims of kills are still civilians, and that may make them harder to lynch. Perhaps that is something the mafia are considering.

[S~V~S]

It was a tangent thought, one of the things I would consider in a "woulda" scenario.

Epi seemed to be trying to draw us to a conclusion about who would kill Niju, his favorite topic. He seemed annoyed when DH brought up LoRab, so he apparently has a candidate in mind, I wish he would just spit it out. Because one of my candidates for Niju/Jack killer is in fact LoRab on a solely meta basis, since that is really all we have to go on. With the caveat of who ever is killed isn't actually dead.

I wonder if they have any permadead people? Since we can't see their lynches.

I had no one particular person in mind, and I wasn't annoyed regarding DH mentioning Lorab. I can't seem to recall much interaction between her and the victim in previous games ever. I didn't know if DH had some reason for mentioning Lorab like he did with Boomslang.

Your big post is the kind of thing I was hoping to see- other perspectives on who might do what and why. I appreciated the read, and I would add to your caveat the notion that there is probably a cognitive bias operating in the back of the civilians' minds: That victims of kills are still civilians, and that may make them harder to lynch. Perhaps that is something the mafia are considering.

I said LoRab because I was thinking of someone who would NK someone for the reasons you mentioned, and she came to mind based on HER own gameplay, not experience with Niju. LoRab is a pragmatic baddie, with little to no personal investment in games. If a person is trying to make a kill with little to no connection to them, killing someone you have had little or no interaction or history with can be a good idea. A kill like that leaves no traces. It's a pragmatic move; that's why I thought of LoRab.

Sometimes a target is just a target, with no greater meaning in the big picture.

[DharmaHelper]

Epi really likes the other thread hmmm

[S~V~S]

Well, to be fair, their kills are the only real things we have to speculate about. I would guess they probably discuss us too. Especially after Sloonei was here.

[DharmaHelper]

I'm going fucking stir crazy not having anything to go on over here. Merge time Merge Time Merge Time Mergeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[colonialbob]

Your big post is the kind of thing I was hoping to see- other perspectives on who might do what and why. I appreciated the read, and I would add to your caveat the notion that there is probably a cognitive bias operating in the back of the civilians' minds: That victims of kills are still civilians, and that may make them harder to lynch. Perhaps that is something the mafia are considering.

I think this is a good point, and lends itself to a closer examination of the dead roles. For example, as mafia I probably wouldn't mind killing a teammate like INH to get cred, but I'm not sacrificing a role like LC's unless I'm forced to. (I realize neither of those were nightkills)

As such I don't think mafia would kill a teammate with BTSC to somebody not in the faction, especially not N1. I don't remember the other NK'd roles at the moment though.

[DharmaHelper]

LC's role wouldn't be sacked if he died.

[colonialbob]

LC's role wouldn't be sacked if he died.

Yes I'm using those as examples of the train of thought - if somebody flips with a role that would be strong as mafia, it's more likely they were civs. If the role is mediocre to bad as mafia, I would be less inclined to town-clear them for getting NKed.

It's sort of a head start on getting reads on the other thread without being able to read it.

[colonialbob]

Well that's confusing. Getting reads (town/mafia) without being able to read (look at the words) in the other thread.

[nutella]

Why do you guys assume "role cannot evolve" in LC's role means he stays as that role?? Doesn't make sense to interpret it that way. I assume evolve is a specific mechanic taken from the Pokemon game but that it applies to the role itself, but LC would get a Role 2 just like anyone else

[DharmaHelper]

Why do you guys assume "role cannot evolve" in LC's role means he stays as that role?? Doesn't make sense to interpret it that way. I assume evolve is a specific mechanic taken from the Pokemon game but that it applies to the role itself, but LC would get a Role 2 just like anyone else

[DharmaHelper]

Fuck what I should have said was "The hosts and I were spitballing what role to give LC and that's what we landed on"

[speedchuck]

I'm going to play devil's (LC's) advocate for a moment here.

Does his role seem too powerful to you?

[speedchuck]

(Too powerful for scum, I mean)

[S~V~S]

No.

[DharmaHelper]

I'm going to play devil's (LC's) advocate for a moment here.

Does his role seem too powerful to you?

I mean I've been saying since he flipped the role looks civ to me but apparently I'm alone in that regard. Seems like the role, if he knew who to target as his vote, would be too easily exploitable. Whereas a civ would have to do a lot more work for the role to have utility. But what do I know.

[speedchuck]

I'm going to play devil's (LC's) advocate for a moment here.

Does his role seem too powerful to you?

I mean I've been saying since he flipped the role looks civ to me but apparently I'm alone in that regard. Seems like the role, if he knew who to target as his vote, would be too easily exploitable. Whereas a civ would have to do a lot more work for the role to have utility. But what do I know.

If I were scum, I would utilize the role by either voting for all-civ or all-town. This would end up in a net change of 3-4 votes during crucial lynches. That's freaking huge.

Assuming this game has like 22 players, with one of the scum people being worth 3-4 scum people, and around 5-6-ish anti-town total...

That moves MYLO up like 2 days. It's freaking ridiculous.

Example:

2 scum people (Y, Z) versus five townspeople (A-E). Z has -4 votes due to easy voting for town.
Poll:
People voting for Y: Z, A, B, C, D, E
People voting for E: Y

That's a tied vote. THAT'S A TIED VOTE, WITH ZERO TOWNIES VOTING FOR SCUM, AND IT NOT EVEN BEING MYLO.
If he somehow managed to vote for scum every day, then they could control this vote even further. It's ridiculous.

So.

Option 1: We have a scum role with 1.5-2 days worth of vote sway, which is completely controllable and pretty easy to hide. It's slow growth to D4, but as long as it lives, it is guaranteed to sway lynches heavily at that point. If any lynch is close, scum have control, and worse, they can have control FROM THE GOOD SIDE OF THE LYNCH. Negative vote power.

Option 2: We have a difficult to use town role, unreliable, but nuanced (typical of role madness games). Using the lynches as tests, a townie could use the role as DDL has, to determine the alignment of people he voted for. Also, if he figures out what his vote count is at, he can sway lynches one way or another.

Yeah, the role would be more useful for mafia. Too useful.

[DharmaHelper]

Who wants to bet with me that Dom and Epi are bad.

[S~V~S]

As I recall, you two were pro LC yesterday, too.

If he is bad, who do you think is his teammate?

[S~V~S]

Who wants to bet with me that Dom and Epi are bad.

Maybe Chuck?

[DharmaHelper]

As I recall, you two were pro LC yesterday, too.

If he is bad, who do you think is his teammate?

Dom

[S~V~S]

As I recall, you two were pro LC yesterday, too.

If he is bad, who do you think is his teammate?

Dom

I don't. No one had noticed LC's slip until Dom pointed it out, and LC did NOT act like he had that planned. He left and has not come back. I think there are two teams, so Dom could be bad, but not LC's teammate.

[S~V~S]

You two are beginning to freak me out a bit, lol. I see Chuck lurking in the tray, too. See you after the NP

[DharmaHelper]

You two are beginning to freak me out a bit, lol. I see Chuck lurking in the tray, too. See you after the NP

That's what you think

[speedchuck]

Who wants to bet with me that Dom and Epi are bad.

Maybe Chuck?

I'd bet against that RN.

Why are we freaking you out, SVS? I still don't have an explanation for LC's stuff. But his role worries me, and I want to hear what you think of it.

[DharmaHelper]

Who wants to bet with me that Dom and Epi are bad.

Maybe Chuck?

Do your feet hurt from all that tip-toeing around whatever point you're trying to make RE: Chuck and I?

[colonialbob]

I'm going to play devil's (LC's) advocate for a moment here.

Does his role seem too powerful to you?

I mean I've been saying since he flipped the role looks civ to me but apparently I'm alone in that regard. Seems like the role, if he knew who to target as his vote, would be too easily exploitable. Whereas a civ would have to do a lot more work for the role to have utility. But what do I know.

If I were scum, I would utilize the role by either voting for all-civ or all-town. This would end up in a net change of 3-4 votes during crucial lynches. That's freaking huge.

Assuming this game has like 22 players, with one of the scum people being worth 3-4 scum people, and around 5-6-ish anti-town total...

That moves MYLO up like 2 days. It's freaking ridiculous.

Example:

2 scum people (Y, Z) versus five townspeople (A-E). Z has -4 votes due to easy voting for town.
Poll:
People voting for Y: Z, A, B, C, D, E
People voting for E: Y

That's a tied vote. THAT'S A TIED VOTE, WITH ZERO TOWNIES VOTING FOR SCUM, AND IT NOT EVEN BEING MYLO.
If he somehow managed to vote for scum every day, then they could control this vote even further. It's ridiculous.

So.

Option 1: We have a scum role with 1.5-2 days worth of vote sway, which is completely controllable and pretty easy to hide. It's slow growth to D4, but as long as it lives, it is guaranteed to sway lynches heavily at that point. If any lynch is close, scum have control, and worse, they can have control FROM THE GOOD SIDE OF THE LYNCH. Negative vote power.

Option 2: We have a difficult to use town role, unreliable, but nuanced (typical of role madness games). Using the lynches as tests, a townie could use the role as DDL has, to determine the alignment of people he voted for. Also, if he figures out what his vote count is at, he can sway lynches one way or another.

Yeah, the role would be more useful for mafia. Too useful.

This is all great analysis... except that we all have 2 lives. So a) push MYLO back by several days (I mean we're on N4 and afaik no permadeaths yet)
b) going to be tougher to keep your first role until endgame


Other factors you're neglecting IMO
c) once you fully 'power up' the role it's quite powerful, yes, but then each time you 'use' the power it gets less so. For example: you've voted civ 5 days in a row, so your vote is -4. You vote a teammate on d6, so you cancel out 4 civ votes. Wow! But then the next day you only cancel out 3, then 2, etc. Yes, it's still very strong, but that's also the *best* case.
d) you're going to need to explain your voting record, and voting only mafia or only civ the first few phases is going to be suspicious.
e) multi-life games tend to favor civs IMO, because they have longer to figure stuff out and can afford more mislynches. So I'd expect strong mafia roles to balance this.

[DharmaHelper]

As unfortunate as it is for me to say this, any thinking/theorizing I do RE: Whether Commander Shepherd's role is civ or mafia is kneecapped by the fact that I can't parse whether or not JC/Golden would collaborate specifically with Long Con regarding the tribe names.

That is either the worst lie I've ever seen in mafia history, or a completely bizarre thing to have occurred. I run myself into a wall. I can't shake it.

[colonialbob]

Also, that isn't a "difficult to use" town role - it's a town role that disincentivizes them from doing the thing townies are supposed to do - vote. Because you don't know whether your vote is positive or negative, but chances are you're going to vote for town, meaning your vote d2 is worthless (except for determining whether it goes up or down). After that, who knows? Do you vote for your suspects? Or people you think are town? No idea!

[S~V~S]

You two are beginning to freak me out a bit, lol. I see Chuck lurking in the tray, too. See you after the NP

That's what you think

What does this mean? Yikes

Who wants to bet with me that Dom and Epi are bad.

Maybe Chuck?

Do your feet hurt from all that tip-toeing around whatever point you're trying to make RE: Chuck and I?

I am not tip toeing around it. It is bizarre how synchronized you two are. I don't believe you would behave this way with a teammate (no clue about Chuck) so that is why it is freaking me out so much. I can't understand this situation. You both seem to have the same agenda, for lack of a better work, and to be somewhat mirroring each others thoughts. Again, I don't see bad DH doing this. Based on earlier behavior, I don't see you and Chuck as civ BTS partners (after his first death, although I don't know if that is even possible).

It feels like an old seventies movie where these two guys back this woman into a corner, and the next thing you know, she has a blank look on her face and has joined their evil carnival. But again, I don't see you doing this bad.

After I came to think LC was bad, I went back and reread him, and saw he had been buddying me the whole game. So I reread the other people I trusted, like you. And I still feel good about you. Which is, again, why this is freaking me out.

So I do not know what to think of this. And my reaction, in Mafia as irl, is to run from things that confuse me.

And then peep back from around the corner.

[speedchuck]

Fair analysis Cbob. I keep forgetting about the weird double-life thing.

And it makes more sense with LC's 'slip'. I just want to make sure we don't assume.

linki:

[DharmaHelper]

You two are beginning to freak me out a bit, lol. I see Chuck lurking in the tray, too. See you after the NP

That's what you think

What does this mean? Yikes

Who wants to bet with me that Dom and Epi are bad.

Maybe Chuck?

Do your feet hurt from all that tip-toeing around whatever point you're trying to make RE: Chuck and I?

I am not tip toeing around it. It is bizarre how synchronized you two are. I don't believe you would behave this way with a teammate (no clue about Chuck) so that is why it is freaking me out so much. I can't understand this situation. You both seem to have the same agenda, for lack of a better work, and to be somewhat mirroring each others thoughts. Again, I don't see bad DH doing this. Based on earlier behavior, I don't see you and Chuck as civ BTS partners (after his first death, although I don't know if that is even possible).

It feels like an old seventies movie where these two guys back this woman into a corner, and the next thing you know, she has a blank look on her face and has joined their evil carnival. But again, I don't see you doing this bad.

After I came to think LC was bad, I went back and reread him, and saw he had been buddying me the whole game. So I reread the other people I trusted, like you. And I still feel good about you. Which is, again, why this is freaking me out.

So I do not know what to think of this. And my reaction, in Mafia as irl, is to run from things that confuse me.

And then peep back from around the corner.

Yikes. What *did* I mean when I said that. Spoopy.

And, to be fair, this above post isn't tiptoeing around anything. Thank you for expounding.

[DharmaHelper]

Also, that isn't a "difficult to use" town role - it's a town role that disincentivizes them from doing the thing townies are supposed to do - vote. Because you don't know whether your vote is positive or negative, but chances are you're going to vote for town, meaning your vote d2 is worthless (except for determining whether it goes up or down). After that, who knows? Do you vote for your suspects? Or people you think are town? No idea!

I disagree with this.