Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[speedchuck]

there are no town/mafia counters cos the roles were drafted, the game was balanced with the secret powers given afterwards, me thinks

Agreed. Counters aren't a thing. Mafia has abilities like Ring's ability in the OP to balance things out. I think.

[Kites]

we should consider that the mafia was able to kill epignosis through sprityo's protection, however sprityo was a known doctor and gwilikers didn't reveal his PHD until today, so he couldn't have been tampered with for that purpose, right?

I was thinking Gwil said something about doctorin yesterday

Nah I just said I had a new role. I wasn't going to reveal it until it was valuable to reveal. It's honestly a pretty shitty role and I wish I didn't upgrade, seeing as it'll only land if a footsoldier is responsible for the kill and I don't have the double vote power against scum thing any more.

cleric can upgrade to bishop but how are they different then?

[gwilikers6]

It has another ability to replace the vote power of monk, but I'm choosing not to reveal it.

[colonialbob]

alright so assuming gwilikers and kites are telling the truth about their targets and weren't misdirected, only a horseperson could have killed sprityo last night right? and if kenway is telling the truth about reversing cbob (and also wasn't misdirected) then that leaves kenway and rdw as potential killers, correct? are there any other horses?

If Kenway is telling the truth then kenway didn't kill anybody either and RDW is the only possibility

[colonialbob]

there are no town/mafia counters cos the roles were drafted, the game was balanced with the secret powers given afterwards, me thinks

Yes, and also I'm pretty sure he initially claimed the second life was gotten on upgrade, not from the beginning, while ID always had two lives, so even internally his logic doesn't work.

[rundontwalk]

there are no town/mafia counters cos the roles were drafted, the game was balanced with the secret powers given afterwards, me thinks

Yes, and also I'm pretty sure he initially claimed the second life was gotten on upgrade, not from the beginning, while ID always had two lives, so even internally his logic doesn't work.

Can mafia upgrade?

[speedchuck]

there are no town/mafia counters cos the roles were drafted, the game was balanced with the secret powers given afterwards, me thinks

Yes, and also I'm pretty sure he initially claimed the second life was gotten on upgrade, not from the beginning, while ID always had two lives, so even internally his logic doesn't work.

Can mafia upgrade?

Mafia promote instantly at the beginning of the game. Someone said that yesterday or last night and linked the post.

[rundontwalk]

there are no town/mafia counters cos the roles were drafted, the game was balanced with the secret powers given afterwards, me thinks

Yes, and also I'm pretty sure he initially claimed the second life was gotten on upgrade, not from the beginning, while ID always had two lives, so even internally his logic doesn't work.

Can mafia upgrade?

Mafia promote instantly at the beginning of the game. Someone said that yesterday or last night and linked the post.

I promoted like day 7 or whatever and immediately told everyone because I thought it might make IronDwarf look scummier

Yay me

[colonialbob]

RDW, Kenway, and Bob all have horses.

From what I'm gathering, either Kenway and Bob are scum together, RDW is scum with someone, or a LOT of redirecting might have happened.

[mention]Kites[/mention] [mention]nutella[/mention] please respond to this

Nutella your action from last night would be very helpful

[speedchuck]

Please speak up and claim actions Vigs

[sig]

Please speak up and claim actions Vigs

Kenway it failed, this is the second time I targeted him and it didn't go through so between him and rdw I'd rather lynch him. I think it's more likely he's scum.

I'd also say Kites has a chance to be mafia.

One final though does faction nightkill abide by the same rules as other actions? If not I fail to see how this process of elimination works.

[sig]

[VOTE: Kenway] aubergine

I still think nutella could be mafia and the case on bob is compelling, however Kenway is my number one pick for tonight.

[speedchuck]

One final though does faction nightkill abide by the same rules as other actions? If not I fail to see how this process of elimination works.

[colonialbob]

[VOTE: Kenway] aubergine

I still think nutella could be mafia and the case on bob is compelling, however Kenway is my number one pick for tonight.

[colonialbob]

Please speak up and claim actions Vigs

I mean is there a reason for anybody to not claim actions?

[speedchuck]

Please speak up and claim actions Vigs

I mean is there a reason for anybody to not claim actions?

No? But I think most everyone else has.

[Kylemii]

One final though does faction nightkill abide by the same rules as other actions? If not I fail to see how this process of elimination works.

I feel like we were told that it was at some point?

[speedchuck]

One final though does faction nightkill abide by the same rules as other actions? If not I fail to see how this process of elimination works.

I feel like we were told that it was at some point?

Please find it. I'd rather not POE if our POE is full of it.

[Kylemii]

One final though does faction nightkill abide by the same rules as other actions? If not I fail to see how this process of elimination works.

I feel like we were told that it was at some point?

Please find it. I'd rather not POE if our POE is full of it.

ugh you're asking for effort? gross

[Kylemii]

yeah one second

[speedchuck]

I feel ya

I don't want to effort either

[Kylemii]

5) At night, all flying players will resolve their actions first. Then, all horse riding characters will resolve their actions. Then, all infantry will resolve their actions. Roleblocking a player who has already resolved their action will have no effect, etc.

here's the thing in the rules but I think he clarified on this later, I'll dig it up in a sec as soon as my laptop boots up

[Kylemii]

6) All players have one or more weapons. If you have multiple weapons, you must choose one each night. Swords > axes > lances > swords. Anima magic > light magic > dark magic > anima magic. If you use a weapon to target a player with a weapon yours beats, you have a 25% chance to self guide (be unblockable and unmisdirectable). If you use a weapon to target a player with a weapon that beats yours, you have a 25% chance to fail. If you miss your night action and have multiple weapons, you will use the same weapons you used last night. IIf you miss your night one action, your weapon choice will be randomized.

hey has everyone been mindful of the weapon triangle? this could explain some of the failed powers.

[nutella]

I misdirected kites

[colonialbob]

6) All players have one or more weapons. If you have multiple weapons, you must choose one each night. Swords > axes > lances > swords. Anima magic > light magic > dark magic > anima magic. If you use a weapon to target a player with a weapon yours beats, you have a 25% chance to self guide (be unblockable and unmisdirectable). If you use a weapon to target a player with a weapon that beats yours, you have a 25% chance to fail. If you miss your night action and have multiple weapons, you will use the same weapons you used last night. IIf you miss your night one action, your weapon choice will be randomized.

hey has everyone been mindful of the weapon triangle? this could explain some of the failed powers.

Yes, except the one night I decided to target ID because I was trying to get my action in before the deadline and forgot about it

[colonialbob]

I misdirected kites

Argh PoE broken

Now you or Sig could be mafia

Hmm actually it would have to be you *and* Sig for it to make any sense

Or you're bad and trying to frame Sig I guess?

Meh still buy you as town, just means Sig is a legit suspect to me.

[colonialbob]

[mention]sig[/mention] [mention]speedchuck[/mention] [mention]Kylemii[/mention] the entry for mage/sage sure seems to imply they're like any other action:

"Mage
Anima wielding foot soldier known for his versatility and armor piercing.
Fire - Each night, you may target another player and reverse their action. A nightkill will become a doctor, a guide will become a block, a track will become a reverse track, etc.
Promotes to Sage or Mage Knight"

[Kylemii]

Jackofhearts2005 does the mafia automatically get a nightkill?

Yes. One of the Five Fingers must make the kill in place of their night action.

do we know if the mafia kill is effected by the speed/priority level of the killer's role?

Jackofhearts2005

it is

some relevant host answers regarding hosts kills

[Kylemii]

not "host kills" you know what i mean. regular murder kills

[colonialbob]

not "host kills" you know what i mean. regular murder kills

Jack is the murderer scumslip confirmed

[Kylemii]

the fact that the mafia has to choose to do the regular murder kill instead of their own unique role power is a relevant detail that we shouldn't ignore

[Jackofhearts2005]

not "host kills" you know what i mean. regular murder kills

Jack is the murderer scumslip confirmed

Remember that one time this actually happened? Tbf JKLantern did it first and better than me.

[Kylemii]

not "host kills" you know what i mean. regular murder kills

Jack is the murderer scumslip confirmed

Remember that one time this actually happened? Tbf JKLantern did it first and better than me.

tell the story!!! (:

[colonialbob]

not "host kills" you know what i mean. regular murder kills

Jack is the murderer scumslip confirmed

Remember that one time this actually happened? Tbf JKLantern did it first and better than me.

tell the story!!! (:

Kyle nooo
Kyle we need to catch mafia

[Kylemii]

not "host kills" you know what i mean. regular murder kills

Jack is the murderer scumslip confirmed

Remember that one time this actually happened? Tbf JKLantern did it first and better than me.

tell the story!!! (:

Kyle nooo
Kyle we need to catch mafia

jack doesn't need to catch mafia so why can't he just tell the storyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy? ):

please

[Jackofhearts2005]

Story time for [mention]Kylemii[/mention]

Spoiler: show

Once upon a time, JKLantern hosted Animaniacs Mafia. Knowing his player base, if someone not in the game was ever lynched, the host himself would become the serial killer, Steven Spielberg. Another 3rd party role would control this kill and would have the goal of getting the host lynched. The host did become the sk and we did lynch him.

Much later, Jack made the most epic and hilarious but also broken game of all time. It was a 7 player game but 2 of the players didn’t show up. All roles included like 8 powers and 2 win conditions, including a player with 12 lives and another player whose goal was to get laid. Most everyone could win via LMS and had a way to gain a situational nightkill.

All players had sock accounts and you had to guess who they really were to lynch them. After two players were eliminated, a serial killer would enter the game and make situational nightkill attempts on the lowest posters. Players would have to deduce that the serial killer was played by the host.

Predictably, players who were likely to have signed up (CBob) were voted for with no way to defend themselves without revealing who they were. This lead to the lynch of one of the only two players actually invested in the game with the only other player invested in the game gaining some votes and likely to follow soon after. CBob correctly called me out as the serial killer around the time he got lynched. I ended up flipping the table since the game I had spent an entire year making was so fundamentally broken.

But hey, at least it was pretty funny.

[Kylemii]

holy shit

[Kites]

I misdirected kites

then you should have failed because you can’t target me
sniper is a buffed version of archer so basically I still have the same powers, but
a) the kill chance increase of my 1st power was increased
b) i can’t be targeted by fliers when I’m targeting someone with my 2nd power which is what I did

so are you the other scum who didn’t kill sprityo

[Kites]

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine
[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

[Kylemii]

okay so.... i've gotta vote tonight bc i open tomorrow and i can't keep missing votes. i'm going to do a quick review for myself.

rundon'twalk. i have no real concrete reason to see him as civ, his arguments for why he shouldnt be lynched have included logical fallacies, he doesn't have a great voting record

speedchuck.... has eben riding a wave of trust that was started by dunya's semitruck momentum, he's been forthcoming with his results even though some of them had been clearly altered. there's potential for mafia speedchuck but i think it's probably tinfoil. probably

kenway is my magebro and.... if he were mafia i honestly wouldn't be incredibly suprised??? but the thing is he's been more active in our classroom lately despite the obvious difficulty and like.... i just really don't see him as mafia. he's done and said some weird stuff but like.... none of it adds up to what i'd consider to be effective mafia strategy or behavior. i think kenway is just kind of a wild boy. he's told me things in btsc that wouldn't make strategic sense to let me know about if he were mafia.

gwilikers i think is? confirmed by the fact that he seemed to have had the monk power when he snooped on sig's pm that one night. alternatively they could both be mafia??? this is relevant because apparently neither of the monk promotes (bishop nor sage) can replicate the monk's ability, based on sprityo's testimony and the role list...

the biggest thing going for nutella is her record of voting for lapluie and quin and them voting for her, this is mitigated by the fact that lap and quin went after each other a lot so nutella being the subject and also the subjector of hardcore teammate bussing isn't too wildly unbelievable, i'm skimming iron dwarf's posts now for mentions of nutella he went hard against her too... which is.... hmmmm..... nutella also fits the template of being less forthcoming with the results of her actions.

cbob is in a similar boat as nutella, his voting record is pretty good, he's spent a good amount of time battling with actually all of the known dead maifa members but to a much less blatant extent than nutella

my main reason for townreading sig is that, as a vigilante, if he's mafia then he has had every opportunity to lower the population. the probability of him promoting to something that doesn't have a kill ability is unlikely since we did see him kill wilgy.... right? it's possible he promoted to something that only has a one shot kill or something, but then what kind of extra ability would justify that sort of debuff? the fact is, if sig (assuming he didn't promote out of his kill ability) had killed during even just 3 of the nights this game would already be over.

i believe kites is probably civ based on the background synergy with pirate bro wilgy, and the fact that he didn't seem to know that his role was a reference to a specific archer whose brother was a pirate. way too specific to have been faked

in conclusion.... i.....

if i had to pick 2 of these to be our last mafia members..... nutella and cbob???? but is it really possible the mafia made it this far with a strategy of bussing each other pretty much constantly?

i guess mafia Kenway is a possibility that shouldn't be removed from the table. and maybe rundon'twalk?????

alright bear with me cus this is about to lose some sence of continuity cus i'm going out of order a bit.... iron dwarf spent a bit of effort going after both rdw and nutella, which based on the mafia climate of distancing either looks... really good or really bad? but iron dwarf didn't really go after quin or lapluie the way those two did. he almsot ignored quin and almost defended lapluie at some points

uhhhh this post is getting a little long.

[Kylemii]

actually yeah. this feels right. [VOTE: nutella] aubergine

[Kylemii]

i'm not done looking through shit tonight though (even ghough i should definitely be in bed rn to get my standard 6 hours of sleep, and i'll check in before work tomorrow morning.

[colonialbob]

Another possibility: mafia nutella actually MD'd gwil and a footie killed Sprit. Don't feel like the likelihood of that is very high since gwil didn't reveal his doctor until today, but it's possible.

[colonialbob]

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] what do you think about the argument that if nutella was mafia they wouldn't habe killed rabbit8 n1 because mafia would've been safe from the Pegasus kill, and perhaps could've gotten it to fire against town?

(Not my argument originally, I don't remember who brought it up after rabbit died, but I find it reasonably compelling)

[colonialbob]

Also - the Don hand-picked their team. We've seen two RYMers and Quin. Do these choices tell us anything about the likely remaining mafia?

[gwilikers6]

gwilikers i think is? confirmed by the fact that he seemed to have had the monk power when he snooped on sig's pm that one night. alternatively they could both be mafia??? this is relevant because apparently neither of the monk promotes (bishop nor sage) can replicate the monk's ability, based on sprityo's testimony and the role list...

Yo, I know no one actually suspects me these days except for rundontwalk (lol), but I feel like I've clarified this a few times and I'm going to do it again. I got two other PMs from confirmed, now dead, townies - Jay and TonyStark. If you don't want to clear me because you believe bishop could have the same powers as monk, fine. I think I'm better confirmed for placing the deciding vote on lapluie and starting the Iron Dwarf lynch when no one else was talking about it.

[gwilikers6]

@Kylemii what do you think about the argument that if nutella was mafia they wouldn't habe killed rabbit8 n1 because mafia would've been safe from the Pegasus kill, and perhaps could've gotten it to fire against town?

(Not my argument originally, I don't remember who brought it up after rabbit died, but I find it reasonably compelling)

I spent some time thinking about this when rabbit was first killed, and I feel like it's just a distraction. Unless there were two mafia pegasus knights, the chance of actually getting all three of them to target a town player in a game with so much misdirection is slim to none, so I really don't think the mafia would have been counting on it if nutella is in fact scum.

[Kylemii]

gwilikers i think is? confirmed by the fact that he seemed to have had the monk power when he snooped on sig's pm that one night. alternatively they could both be mafia??? this is relevant because apparently neither of the monk promotes (bishop nor sage) can replicate the monk's ability, based on sprityo's testimony and the role list...

Yo, I know no one actually suspects me these days except for rundontwalk (lol), but I feel like I've clarified this a few times and I'm going to do it again. I got two other PMs from confirmed, now dead, townies - Jay and TonyStark. If you don't want to clear me because you believe bishop could have the same powers as monk, fine. I think I'm better confirmed for placing the deciding vote on lapluie and starting the Iron Dwarf lynch when no one else was talking about it.

no i definitely already agree with that? maybe the phrasing was off but i definitely view you as (probably) mechanically confirmed-ish civ.

I'm doing my best to consider all possibilities because it's nearing crunch time.

[colonialbob]

Who's most likely to have killed sprit? I think that's the best way to vote this phase.

[Kylemii]

Who's most likely to have killed sprit? I think that's the best way to vote this phase.

why is that the best way to vote?