Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[nutella]

[VOTE: rdw ] aubergine it's not me y'all that all I know

[gwilikers6]

I really dislike 'the plan.' It's going to fail without a doubt imo.

[gwilikers6]

[VOTE: rdw] aubergine

[speedchuck]

I really dislike 'the plan.' It's going to fail without a doubt imo.

But we have backup

It's like aiming two scum-seeking missiles at RDW. If both are redirected, nutella HAS to be scum, and the other scum also must have a redirect.

[colonialbob]

Also wait I should basically be confirmed town, I've been targeted by foot people before my promotion and they didn't fail (I'm pretty sure) and then kenway failed after my promotion, and then didn't fail last night after he promoted, which should prove I'm on a horse, right?

Hmm hang on I need to confirm I was successfully targeted by a footie before I promoted.

[Kites]

ok so I guess we go with the plan
do i target gwil or kyle to stop fliers messing with this

[Kites]

btw if rdw is ring, will everyone get roleblocked now that he is being lynched even though he doesn’t die?

[gwilikers6]

I really dislike 'the plan.' It's going to fail without a doubt imo.

But we have backup

It's like aiming two scum-seeking missiles at RDW. If both are redirected, nutella HAS to be scum, and the other scum also must have a redirect.

Spell out for me every action taken in this plan plz.

[speedchuck]

I really dislike 'the plan.' It's going to fail without a doubt imo.

But we have backup

It's like aiming two scum-seeking missiles at RDW. If both are redirected, nutella HAS to be scum, and the other scum also must have a redirect.

Spell out for me every action taken in this plan plz.

I think cbob has a post that already did that

[mention]colonialbob[/mention]

[Jackofhearts2005]

Fire Emblem Day 9

At nightfall, Speedie’s troops made camp near the border of Neutralia and Badguyia. Dunya patrolled the campsite, sticking to the shadows and peeking her head into each tent.

In one, Bob and Nutella were engaged in some C, B and A ranked support, if you know what I mean.

In another, Kylemii scolded Kenway for not studying enough. “I’ll do my best!” the banana mage promised.

Dunya’s turned at the sound of an argument and crept closer to the final tent.

“What do you mean you left your armor at the castle?” Speedie shouted.

“I thought maybe Epi or Sprityo would be around and I wanted to be ready” Ron tried to explain.

“Ready? Ready for...oooooo. DISGUSTING!”

Ron came flying out of the tent wearing only a shirt and heart boxers. He looked at the spy, then down at himself, then back at the spy. “Hey Dunya. How you doin?”

“I’m seeing, someone, thanks,” the spy said with a smirk.

Ron shrugged and wandered off, whistling to himself.


Rundontwalk has been lynched but he had two lives. Now he has one.

[colonialbob]

So these actions kinda depend on whether people trust me and/or kenway or not

[Jackofhearts2005]

Who is bad?
Poll ended at Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:07 pm
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.


Rundontwalk
5
26%
Voters: speedchuck, colonialbob, nutella, gwilikers6, Kylemii
Speedchuck/Dunya
0
No votes
Voters: None
Kenway
0
No votes
Voters: None
Kylemii
0
No votes
Voters: None
Gwilikers6
0
No votes
Voters: None
Nutella
2
11%
Voters: sig, Kites
Colonialbob
0
No votes
Voters: None
Sig
0
No votes
Voters: None
Kites
0
No votes
Voters: None
You guys what if we have to lynch Jack? What if he’s the big bad? (host/dead/non)
12
63%
Voters: Marmot, Iron_Dwarf, JaggedJimmyJay, DrWilgy, Dragon D. Luffy, sprityo, MacDougall, lapluie, Scotty, Jackofhearts2005, Epignosis, dunya
Total votes: 19

[Marmot]

[sprityo]

[Kylemii]

If the RDW plan fails can we assume scum has a misdirector?

well....

or a doctor, jailkeeper, a role blocker, or a mage or a ah.... killer......

.............

so basically any of the roles belonging to the players we've narrowed it down to have potential to ruin this plan if they have motive to, other than rdw.... probably. :/

it turns out this is a really bad plan, actually, with like a 120% chance of failure. but at the very least, the exact method of failure could be telling?

[Kites]

btw if rdw is ring, will everyone get roleblocked now that he is being lynched even though he doesn’t die?

what do you think, would this happen?

[Kylemii]

the plan has expanded a little bit to the point that I don't totally understand it, but I think I understand my role in it at least?

[mention]gwilikers6[/mention] you are a killer with a smart bullet tonight, please do your best. I think the publically suggested idea is to target rdw, but mathematically speaking targetting anyone that hasn't been cleared would be helpful, so follow your heart or w/e.

[mention]Kites[/mention] Nutella doesn't misdirect tonight, and sig is a killer so his interference would be super obvious. I guess either of us would be a valid target, as long as you don't reveal it in the thread so the mafia has to guess.

[Kylemii]

wait. fuck. does anime magic beat light magic? are you using staves now? how does this work?

[Kites]

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] promoted nutella misdirects every night

[colonialbob]

The plan initially requires:

Kyle targets gwil
Gwil targets RDW

The other players are:
Nutella - MD (flier)
Sig - vig (flier)
Cbob - guide or block (horse)
RDW - bodyguard? (horse)
Kenway - mage (horse)
Speedchuck - 'cop' (foot)
Kites - protect from fliers (foot)

Kites should target kyle, because that way even if gwil is misdirected there's a chance he'll kill mafia.

I recommend:
Me block nutella
Kenway target RDW
Speedchuck whoever
Sig no action
Nutella no action

This means that if RDW doesn't die, either:
He's town
Nutella misdirected gwil (meaning myself or kenway also didn't follow through with the plan, and thus RDW still isn't mafia by PoE)
I blocked gwil (meaning he will be able to report a block, and I'm mafia)

If he does die, presumably he'll be revealed as mafia. If he's revealed as town, it means:
Mafia killed him (speedchuck, myself, kenway are the suspects)
Sig killed him (Sig is suspect)
Kites killed him (kites is suspect)
Nutella killed him (nutella and I are suspect)

That's my current idea. Please object as you see fit.

[Kylemii]

@Kylemii promoted nutella misdirects every night

ahhh

[Kylemii]

[mention]gwilikers6[/mention]if it's possible, please use light magic tonight so I may have a 25% chance of self-guiding against you, slightly reducing the risk of blocks, jailkeeps, and misdirection fucking with our shit.

[gwilikers6]

I don’t think I can. My role doesn’t specify but it’s not in the spirit of Fire Emblem.

[gwilikers6]

Actually the role says light magic and stave wielding, but the doctor is my only targeting night action so maybe I can.

[nutella]

so my orders are to just not use my power? k got it

wait cbob can you even block me? you're a horseyboy

[colonialbob]

so my orders are to just not use my power? k got it

wait cbob can you even block me? you're a horseyboy

I honestly think that's best whether people are suspicious of you or not.

And yeah I've got a bow now

[Kylemii]

I don’t think I can. My role doesn’t specify but it’s not in the spirit of Fire Emblem.

Actually the role says light magic and stave wielding, but the doctor is my only targeting night action so maybe I can.

this has bugged me a little too, i asked about it early on and didn't receive an answer. i can cast elfire or mend and it would make sense if those types were locked into their realistic spell types. but none of my spells are light magic and it's still an option for me. i've just kept myself on anime magic since there have never been any dark magic targeting powers

[sig]

@Kenway @speedchuck @rundontwalk Thoughts?

This is a pretty interesting point, but I have a couple of questions.

1. Does nutella's crit chance matter to this theory? I noticed you linked the two.
2. It's very possible that there is a mafia misdirection ability that, like Ring's roleblock thing, is hidden behind the scenes. What points you specifically to nutella?

Also, why bring this up now instead of days ago?

1. Maybe
2. While it might be hidden behind the scenes it was the first thought that popped up in my head. I could be wrong, but I feel it's an avenue worth pursuing

[colonialbob]

[mention]Kenway[/mention] need to know how on board you are with this plan

[rundontwalk]

The plan initially requires:

Kyle targets gwil
Gwil targets RDW

The other players are:
Nutella - MD (flier)
Sig - vig (flier)
Cbob - guide or block (horse)
RDW - bodyguard? (horse)
Kenway - mage (horse)
Speedchuck - 'cop' (foot)
Kites - protect from fliers (foot)

Kites should target kyle, because that way even if gwil is misdirected there's a chance he'll kill mafia.

I recommend:
Me block nutella
Kenway target RDW
Speedchuck whoever
Sig no action
Nutella no action

This means that if RDW doesn't die, either:
He's town
Nutella misdirected gwil (meaning myself or kenway also didn't follow through with the plan, and thus RDW still isn't mafia by PoE)
I blocked gwil (meaning he will be able to report a block, and I'm mafia)

If he does die, presumably he'll be revealed as mafia. If he's revealed as town, it means:
Mafia killed him (speedchuck, myself, kenway are the suspects)
Sig killed him (Sig is suspect)
Kites killed him (kites is suspect)
Nutella killed him (nutella and I are suspect)

That's my current idea. Please object as you see fit.

Presumably I'll flip Mafia? You know what they say about assumptions

[rundontwalk]

I'm reading this thread and Benny Hill music should be in background. Kill me IDC. I'm not scum tho.

[rundontwalk]

How likely is it scum would have two players with double lives?

[Kylemii]

I'm reading this thread and Benny Hill music should be in background. Kill me IDC. I'm not scum tho.

you'll only die if you're scum so you only need to be nervous if you're mafia

[Kylemii]

How likely is it scum would have two players with double lives?

.....equally likely as any other set of two roles?

you keep bringing this up like it's a sensible argument but your role was chosen by sig, and your promotion choice was made by you. Jack had no control over the game balance after the draft started, so there's no reason why two players with two lives couldn't be on the same team.

[colonialbob]

How likely is it scum would have two players with double lives?

.....equally likely as any other set of two roles?

you keep bringing this up like it's a sensible argument but your role was chosen by sig, and your promotion choice was made by you. Jack had no control over the game balance after the draft started, so there's no reason why two players with two lives couldn't be on the same team.

let's be honest Jack didn't have any control over the game balance before it started either

[rundontwalk]

I'm reading this thread and Benny Hill music should be in background. Kill me IDC. I'm not scum tho.

you'll only die if you're scum so you only need to be nervous if you're mafia

Unless scum kill me to mess with your plan

[colonialbob]

I'm reading this thread and Benny Hill music should be in background. Kill me IDC. I'm not scum tho.

you'll only die if you're scum so you only need to be nervous if you're mafia

Unless scum kill me to mess with your plan

Oh no if only somebody had thought of that when laying out the plan

[Kylemii]

yeah, there isn't a permutation of events tonight where we won't at least learn something. regardless of whether it's related to rdw or not

mafia has 2 members left, one of them will probably kill tonight, and the other will probably use a power to mess with this plan, if they have one. if they don't, then cool. if they do then that still helps us narrow down which player it could have been that stopped or redirected the thing.

plan doesn't work and someone involved gets a power failed message then that implicates cbob, plan fails with no power fail message then that implicates nutella or kenway.

i guess technically if rdw doesn't die then we won't really know for sure if it was cus the plan worked and rdw is civ or if the plan didnt work and kenway or Nutella messed with the result, but it will help us narrow things down in the future, since the only players who can make the plan fail without murder or fail PMs are Nutella or kenway

[Kylemii]

unless I'm missing something

[Jackofhearts2005]

Fire Emblem Night 9

The army came across a large mercenary band that had been hired by Badguyia. They’d have to fight their way through to reach Castle Lastchapter.

Speedie laid out the plan. Kylemii and Gwilly would attack here. Bob would strike there.

“I don’t see my part of the plan,” Hazel said. “Where do ya need me?”

Speedie smiled. “I need you to do nothing. There are a lot of archers around. I don’t want you to stir up any trouble.”

“Oh. Can’t I just go with the Colonel?”

Speedie shook her head.

“What about me?” Ron asked. “What should I do?”

Speedie put her hand on the cavalier’s shoulder, looked down at his lack of armor and then back up at him. “Hope you don’t die.”

“You got it.”

************

Gwilly tiptoed through the battlefield. Every so often, a bad guy would try to attack him and he’d vaporize the mercenary in self defense. “Sorry! Dreadfully sorry.”

“You look uncomfortable,” Ring said.

Gwilly fell backwards, startled. He looked around but Kylemii and Ron were nowhere to be seen.

“I admit I’m a little embarrassed,” Ring told the holy man. “I misjudged you earlier.”

“It’s probably my hair. It’s okay. A lot of people think I’m a woman at first.”

“Oh no,” Ring drew her sword. “I meant, I didn’t realize you were a traitor.”

Gwilly held his staff in front of him. “I’m warning you.”

“I appreciate the warning. Now die.”

Ring charged from outside the monk’s attack range and cut him down before he even had the chance to counter.

“Luffy...”

Then he faded away.



Gwilikers6 has been killed by the mafia. He was a really good looking lady dude. (Town)

[Marmot]

[Kylemii]

that is actually..... hmmm

that's bad

[nutella]

hmmmmm

[nutella]

so wait do we know if rdw is good now or did it get messed up

[Kites]

did anyone fail?

[Kylemii]

we uh..... we don't actually know anything for sure.

it looks like my power didn't fail. if something was done to screw with gwilikers targeting then then we can't know for sure if it was something that would trigger a "your power failed" pm because he died.

[Kylemii]

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] you've revealed the alignments of your early thief checks but did you ever reveal any specific nationalities?

[Kites]

all our moves were there for mafia to read so if there was a way to screw it up, it was done

if a horse rider or flier killed gwilly, he would die before doing his reverse doctor action, right?

[Kylemii]

all our moves were there for mafia to read so if there was a way to screw it up, it was done

well the thing is we knew there was a high probability that thr plan would get fucked up, but the manner of fucking would reveal something about mafia team composition based on whether gwil received a fail message. him dying means the mafia might not have had to do anything at all since he wouldn't be able to report on his failure or not failure post mortem

if a horse rider or flier killed gwilly, he would die before doing his reverse doctor action, right?

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] ?

[gwilikers6]

Good luck, town.