Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[colonialbob]

I'm very conflicted about my reads atm. :P

So let me try to clean up my post.

If we believe Nutella misdirected me, we should lynch her, since that means she promoted early. If we don't think this is the case than she's most likely a civ.

RDW is in my opinion most likely mafia for his various actions already talked about prior to last day phase and for trying to say he couldn't be mafia due to his role. Which is meaningless in this set up.

If RDW is mafia than either Bob or Speed is his teammate.

If we don't think RDW or Nutella is mafia we should turn around and look at other more blendy players which would be Kites and Kenway. I still don't like that Kenway wasn't active in BTSC chat, but I feel like mafia would've killed Kyle or tried to influence him. This works the same for Kyle as it does for Kenway. So both wouldn't be on my list today.

Why are you ignoring the fact that RDW/speed literally can't be mafia teammates

[Kylemii]

And we would only lynch kites if we don't find the other main people, (RDW/Nutella) scummy.

Though and this is a new thought I'd also look at Bob, he's seem to gotten himself really buried in mechanic/role usage which doesn't seem to help much since we have no idea what mafia might have done or if they have any special powers.

Assuming they don't have special powers, than it brings me back to my point that Nutella must be mafia since I was redirected Night 2 and only another flier could've done that.

Somebody with a bow also could've done that

Or, you could be mafia

are there any roles that have both bow and misdirection, promoted or not?

[Kylemii]

has nutella ever revealed any of her track results?

[colonialbob]

And we would only lynch kites if we don't find the other main people, (RDW/Nutella) scummy.

Though and this is a new thought I'd also look at Bob, he's seem to gotten himself really buried in mechanic/role usage which doesn't seem to help much since we have no idea what mafia might have done or if they have any special powers.

Assuming they don't have special powers, than it brings me back to my point that Nutella must be mafia since I was redirected Night 2 and only another flier could've done that.

Somebody with a bow also could've done that

Or, you could be mafia

are there any roles that have both bow and misdirection, promoted or not?

So this sort of goes back to a question I've had (that I don't think we can answer) - are the promoted roles the same, or do they just upgrade your existing power? e.g. I promoted to Ranger, but the power name is basically my current power on a horse - if archer promoted, would they suddenly become a MD/Block/JK/guide, or would they just have their archer power on a horse (aka faster)?

The bow roles are: Archer, Nomad, Warrior*, Ranger*, Sniper*. Warrior might have an MD, but they promote from Fighters and Pirates, and ColinisCool, MacDougall, and Dr Wilgy were all town.

It could also be a mafia backstory power I suppose.

[colonialbob]

And we would only lynch kites if we don't find the other main people, (RDW/Nutella) scummy.

Though and this is a new thought I'd also look at Bob, he's seem to gotten himself really buried in mechanic/role usage which doesn't seem to help much since we have no idea what mafia might have done or if they have any special powers.

Assuming they don't have special powers, than it brings me back to my point that Nutella must be mafia since I was redirected Night 2 and only another flier could've done that.

Somebody with a bow also could've done that

Or, you could be mafia

are there any roles that have both bow and misdirection, promoted or not?

So this sort of goes back to a question I've had (that I don't think we can answer) - are the promoted roles the same, or do they just upgrade your existing power? e.g. I promoted to Ranger, but the power name is basically my current power on a horse - if archer promoted, would they suddenly become a MD/Block/JK/guide, or would they just have their archer power on a horse (aka faster)?

The bow roles are: Archer, Nomad, Warrior*, Ranger*, Sniper*. Warrior might have an MD, but they promote from Fighters and Pirates, and ColinisCool, MacDougall, and Dr Wilgy were all town.

It could also be a mafia backstory power I suppose.

But yeah it seems like either nutella is mafia or sig is straight up lying about his N2 target.

[colonialbob]

No as a pegasus I had a track every other night. On night 2 I tracked Quin and didn't get a result, and then he claimed that he had abstained. Night 4 I tracked Kites.

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] searched her ISO for "track" this was the only result.

[mention]nutella[/mention] care to a) say Kites target and b) list your other results?

(tracking Quin and no result maketh me suspicious)

[colonialbob]

Day 3

[6] JaggedJimmyJay - Dragon D. Luffy, McDougall, Epignosis, sprityo, Marmot, DrWilgy
[6] Iron_Dwarf - colonialbob, speedchuck, nutella, gwilikers6, JaggedJimmyJay, Kylemii
[1] sig - Kenway
[1] DrWilgy - Long Con
[3] nutella - Iron_Dwarf, Quin, lapluie
[1] rundontwalk - Kites
[1] gwilikers6 - rundontwalk

No vote: sig (but a good effort)

Much vote manipulation. Very unexpect

Day 3 poll. JJJ is lynched. (with 6 townies on the train, even though the other top vote-getter is mafia, natch)

speedunya and nutella both on ID... and all 3 mafia are on nutella.

Here's the order:

Spoiler: show

Day 3

Spoiler: show

Mac - Jay
RDW - ID
Kenway - Sig
Bob - ID
LC - Sig
Sprityo - Sig
DDL - Jay
ID - RDW
Jay - Wilgy
Speed - ID
LC - unvote
Mac - Jay
Sprityo - RDW
Epi - Jay
Mac - Jay
Sprityo - Jay
ID - Nutella
LC - Wilgy
Nutella - ID
Kites - RDW
Quin - Nutella
Marmot - Bob
RDW - Jay
Gwilkers6 - ID
lapluie - Nutella
Jay - ID
RDW - Gwilkers6
Jay - unvote
Marmot - Jay
Jay - ID
Dr. Wilgy - Jay
Kylemii - ID
Sig - LC

Mac
RDW
Kenway
Bob
LC
Sprityo
DDL
ID
Jay
Speed
Mac
Sprityo
Epi
Mac
Sprityo
ID
LC
Nutella
Kites
Quin
Marmot
RDW
Gwilkers6
lapluie
Jay
RDW
Marmot
Jay
Dr. Wilgy
Kylemii
Sig

Key:

Orange - Jay
Light Blue - ID
Green - Nutella
Purple - Sig
Yellow - RDW
Others - White

Not a very informative day. Not a single vote on Quin or lapluie. This might become more informative later if one of ID/RDW/Nutella/Sig flip bad, otherwise, meh.

Quin and lapluie try to lynch Nutella, which means she has hands down the best vote tracking in the game, or she is being bussed like hell. 3-headed oroboros indeed, Kyle.

I am pinged by Sig's useless as shit vote near the end though, and though my memory is not 100% trustworthy, I don't recall thinking well of Sig in any of these exercises. I'll look at him more closely after I'm done here.

The fact that all 3 mafia were on nutella even though one of them was on the chopping block opposite JJJ makes me think there was manipulation going on. Couldn't have been vote stealing, because lapluie was a cop not a thief on N2, and speedunya was on ID. That means either ID had some native vote protection, or something crazy was going on.

[colonialbob]

Sidenote - nutella didn't kill last night. I blocked her. The only exception is if Kenway and nutella are w/w and he targeted me to let her through. Meh, I trust him pretty strongly.

[sig]

I'm very conflicted about my reads atm. :P

So let me try to clean up my post.

If we believe Nutella misdirected me, we should lynch her, since that means she promoted early. If we don't think this is the case than she's most likely a civ.

RDW is in my opinion most likely mafia for his various actions already talked about prior to last day phase and for trying to say he couldn't be mafia due to his role. Which is meaningless in this set up.

If RDW is mafia than either Bob or Speed is his teammate.

If we don't think RDW or Nutella is mafia we should turn around and look at other more blendy players which would be Kites and Kenway. I still don't like that Kenway wasn't active in BTSC chat, but I feel like mafia would've killed Kyle or tried to influence him. This works the same for Kyle as it does for Kenway. So both wouldn't be on my list today.

Why are you ignoring the fact that RDW/speed literally can't be mafia teammates

Why?

Also i dod forget th bow but do we have any bow misdirect and if so why woupd a civ change my target to Collins of all people. Also there's no reason for me to lie if im wrong amd mafia I get lynched whcih gives covs more time.

However, i doubt I'm wrong.

[colonialbob]

I'm very conflicted about my reads atm. :P

So let me try to clean up my post.

If we believe Nutella misdirected me, we should lynch her, since that means she promoted early. If we don't think this is the case than she's most likely a civ.

RDW is in my opinion most likely mafia for his various actions already talked about prior to last day phase and for trying to say he couldn't be mafia due to his role. Which is meaningless in this set up.

If RDW is mafia than either Bob or Speed is his teammate.

If we don't think RDW or Nutella is mafia we should turn around and look at other more blendy players which would be Kites and Kenway. I still don't like that Kenway wasn't active in BTSC chat, but I feel like mafia would've killed Kyle or tried to influence him. This works the same for Kyle as it does for Kenway. So both wouldn't be on my list today.

Why are you ignoring the fact that RDW/speed literally can't be mafia teammates

Why?

Also i dod forget th bow but do we have any bow misdirect and if so why woupd a civ change my target to Collins of all people. Also there's no reason for me to lie if im wrong amd mafia I get lynched whcih gives covs more time.

However, i doubt I'm wrong.

In reverse order

Explain? I meant lying about your N2 target, getting an early kill and pretending it was MD'd

misdirects are random

Because if they were RDW would've died last night, since speed would've had to do the kill (Kenway targeted RDW) and gwil's Kyle-enabled mafia kill would've killed RDW at the same time

[Kylemii]

Because if they were RDW would've died last night, since speed would've had to do the kill (Kenway targeted RDW) and gwil's Kyle-enabled mafia kill would've killed RDW at the same time

wait what

[colonialbob]

Because if they were RDW would've died last night, since speed would've had to do the kill (Kenway targeted RDW) and gwil's Kyle-enabled mafia kill would've killed RDW at the same time

wait what

Ok, assume RDW and speed are mafia. That means everybody else is town and told the truth.

Kenway targets RDW -> RDW can't make the kill.

gwil and speed are both foot, and so their actions fire at the same time. This means gwil's doctor (switched into a kill by you) would've hit RDW and killed him.

[colonialbob]

ok I'm gonna sleep on this and crack it tomorrow. alternatively, I'm gonna go insane.

one of those two things.

[Kylemii]

Because if they were RDW would've died last night, since speed would've had to do the kill (Kenway targeted RDW) and gwil's Kyle-enabled mafia kill would've killed RDW at the same time

wait what

Ok, assume RDW and speed are mafia. That means everybody else is town and told the truth.

Kenway targets RDW -> RDW can't make the kill.

gwil and speed are both foot, and so their actions fire at the same time. This means gwil's doctor (switched into a kill by you) would've hit RDW and killed him.

ahhh you're right.

[nutella]

@nutella file this one under "Kyle doesn't pay attention and doesn't often dig through archives" could you remind me who the players were that you followed before night 6, and also who did they target?

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 43#p420743

oh I didn't say kites' target in that post. it was gwil

I've been asked the same several questions like three times by the same people lmao

[Kylemii]

@nutella file this one under "Kyle doesn't pay attention and doesn't often dig through archives" could you remind me who the players were that you followed before night 6, and also who did they target?

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 43#p420743

oh I didn't say kites' target in that post. it was gwil

I've been asked the same several questions like three times by the same people lmao

it's literally been me three different times lol oops

[Kylemii]

that's actually a good look. Nutella wouldn't have known gwils actual target if she'd already promoted, (unless she lied about what her promotion changes were?)

[colonialbob]

that's actually a good look. Nutella wouldn't have known gwils actual target if she'd already promoted, (unless she lied about what her promotion changes were?)

Other way round. Kites targeted gwil. [mention]Kites[/mention] can you confirm please?

[sig]

I'm fairly convinced Nutella is mafia. Literally every mafia member so far has been under suspicion at some point and almost lynched we just kept choking this is the same thing with nutella. Her reasoning at the beginning of the game made sense, but she never really gave solid reads and is still blendy. So I'm voting there, this is a combination of my own thoughts and the reads on her from literally the start of the game.

[VOTE: Nutella] aubergine

[Kylemii]

that's actually a good look. Nutella wouldn't have known gwils actual target if she'd already promoted, (unless she lied about what her promotion changes were?)

Other way round. Kites targeted gwil. @Kites can you confirm please?

what's the other way around?

[Kites]

that's actually a good look. Nutella wouldn't have known gwils actual target if she'd already promoted, (unless she lied about what her promotion changes were?)

Other way round. Kites targeted gwil. @Kites can you confirm please?

n4? yes I did target gwil, not sure what youre asking here

[Kites]

i have given away all my night actions here after every night so nutella tracking on me doesn’t prove anythin

[colonialbob]

that's actually a good look. Nutella wouldn't have known gwils actual target if she'd already promoted, (unless she lied about what her promotion changes were?)

Other way round. Kites targeted gwil. @Kites can you confirm please?

n4? yes I did target gwil, not sure what youre asking here

Just asking you to confirm nutella's track result is all.

[colonialbob]

i have given away all my night actions here after every night so nutella tracking on me doesn’t prove anythin

Oh, hmm. K.

[Kylemii]

i have given away all my night actions here after every night so nutella tracking on me doesn’t prove anythin

hmmmm which happened first on the day in question? it's important

[Kites]

i have given away all my night actions here after every night so nutella tracking on me doesn’t prove anythin

hmmmm which happened first on the day in question? it's important

me - day 4
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 36#p413336
nutella didn’t mention it until day 8
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 43#p420743

[Kites]

i have given away all my night actions here after every night so nutella tracking on me doesn’t prove anythin

hmmmm which happened first on the day in question? it's important

me - day 4
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 36#p413336
nutella didn’t mention it until day 8
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 43#p420743

sorry wrong quote
day 5
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 53#p415553
the point still stands

[speedchuck]

I've been gone all weekend. What are we doing?

[colonialbob]

Preliminary analysis, begore going back to look at vote trains and interactions:

If we lynch Sig...

... and he's mafia: doesnt narrow down his partner, IMO. It's pure WIFOM whether mafia killed gwil to protect or implicate RDW. That said, Kites can protect somebody from nutella, Kenway can lock down somebody else, and if Kyle helps me I can lock down a third person.

... and he's town: RDW is probably town, and mafia is probably speedunya/nutella.

If we lynch RDW...

... and he's mafia, Sig is almost definitely his partner.

... and he's town, Sig and speedunya are the next top priority and we try to lock down nutella too.

I still feel like RDW is mafia, which makes me want to lynch him. It has the side benefit of narrowing down our next move, too.

I would also vote Sig, if we want to go that way. I'm less convinced on nutella, the voting patterns just still don't make sense to me if she's mafia.

[speedchuck]

Preliminary analysis, begore going back to look at vote trains and interactions:

If we lynch Sig...

... and he's mafia: doesnt narrow down his partner, IMO. It's pure WIFOM whether mafia killed gwil to protect or implicate RDW. That said, Kites can protect somebody from nutella, Kenway can lock down somebody else, and if Kyle helps me I can lock down a third person.

... and he's town: RDW is probably town, and mafia is probably speedunya/nutella.

If we lynch RDW...

... and he's mafia, Sig is almost definitely his partner.

... and he's town, Sig and speedunya are the next top priority and we try to lock down nutella too.

I still feel like RDW is mafia, which makes me want to lynch him. It has the side benefit of narrowing down our next move, too.

I would also vote Sig, if we want to go that way. I'm less convinced on nutella, the voting patterns just still don't make sense to me if she's mafia.

If nutella is town and the plan went according to... plan, then RDW is town, right?

Please, someone catch me up. I'm running on 4 hours of sleep here, and I'm not reading everything today.

[sig]

The plan is overly complex and I still don't get it so i won't be lynching based off of that alone.

I will be keeping my vote on Nutella since that's the way to go.

[speedchuck]

[VOTE: Sig] aubergine for now.

I see you guys watching. Tell me whats up. Why is Cbob on the chopping block, and why is nobody voting?

[colonialbob]

So if RDW is mafia, that leaves Sig or Kyle.

If RDW is town, Sig, Kyle, and/or speedunya.

(This assumes Kenway and I are telling the truth)

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] if you believe kenway and I are town, these are the possibilities as I see them.

[speedchuck]

So sig or Kyle are scum either way.

Assuming you and Kenway are truthful

[colonialbob]

People I'm very confident being town:
Me
Kites
Kenway

So my views:
If RDW is mafia, his partner is Sig or Kyle
If RDW is town, mafia is 2 of Sig, Kyle, speedunya, nutella (with the killer guaranteed to be one of the first 3)

I also believe Kyle is town. That means Sig/RDW, Sig/speedunya, and Sig/nutella are my most plausible w/w pairings.

Sorry this post is probably better. nutella is potentially mafia if RDW is town.

We know mafia isn't RDW/nutella or RDW/speed

[speedchuck]

So why are you not voting for Sig?

[colonialbob]

So sig or Kyle are scum either way.

Assuming you and Kenway are truthful

They're both on the list, yes.

And I feel good about Kyle (I think him clearing Epi was a fairly townie move, as was vouching for Kenway when things were suspicious.)

[colonialbob]

So why are you not voting for Sig?

He's not necessarily mafia. And because if we lynch Ring we all get RB'd tonight. I'm making the decision carefully.

I was also kinda hoping for more discussion tbh

[Kylemii]

wait, walk me through the implications of last night based on what happened to gwilikers and what didn't happen to rdw, with regards to what powers could and couldn't have effected gwil's actions

[nutella]

ughhh yeah we're kind of stuck if we are most confident about sig being bad but that he might be ring :\

Kyle has been acting weird the last couple days (asking the same questions over and over, not understanding all of what's going on though I definitely sympathize with that to some extent)

[Kylemii]

I've only asked you the same question a few times and its an important question considering all of our found mafia have been shady about revealing their night targets.

nut do you have any samples of you having known and mentioned your targets targets before they revealed them

[Kylemii]

why would we care about who ring is?

[colonialbob]

why would we care about who ring is?

Because we all get RBd if we lynch him, and he gets a free kill with no chance of us learning anything. It's not a huge consideration, but it's a consideration.

[colonialbob]

wait, walk me through the implications of last night based on what happened to gwilikers and what didn't happen to rdw, with regards to what powers could and couldn't have effected gwil's actions

So it's kind of a tree with two main branches.

Branch 1: RDW is mafia
This means gwil's reversed doctor didn't go off. So either he was killed by somebody faster than him (flier or horse), or he was blocked/misdirected, or his doctor wasn't reversed.
Assuming Kenway and I are town: nutella couldn't have killed, because she was blocked. RDW couldn't have killed, because he was reversed. Speedchuck couldn't have killed, because he would've been too slow. That leaves you and Sig.
Don't assume Kenway is town: he or RDW could've made the kill.
Don't assume I'm town: I made the kill.

Branch 2: RDW is town
This opens things up more.
Assuming Kenway and I are town: nutella couldn't have made the kill. Sig, Kyle, or speedchuck could have. Any of those 3 plus nutella could be mafia.
Don't assume Kenway is town: add him to the potential killer/mafia list
Don't assume I'm town: add nutella and I to the potential killers, and myself to potential mafia

Does that make everything clear?

[colonialbob]

My personal list:
I'm town.
Kites is basically confirmed town.
I trust Kenway because of his failure/not failure interaction with me coincides with his promotion to being on a horse.

I mostly trust Kyle because of vouching for Epi/Kenway.
I lean town on nutella because of votes.

So my suspects are RDW, Sig, speed, nutella, in that order.

I want to vote RDW because I've been scumreading him for forever, he saved lapluie n2, and his flip gives us the most info. We also know he isn't Ring.

I could vote Sig because his earlier posts today were total player salad and because he could be mafia regardless of RDW's alignment.

I'm interested in hearing people's thoughts on all of this.

[Kylemii]

i think i agree with your rundown. rdw does seem like the most informative lynch all things being equal

it feels like we're on a tightrope rn.

[Kylemii]

hej hej, [mention]speedchuck[/mention] what were the specific nationalities of your pre-promote targets?

[colonialbob]

i think i agree with your rundown. rdw does seem like the most informative lynch all things being equal

it feels like we're on a tightrope rn.

The town is poised upon the edge of a knife - stray but a little, and it will fail.

[Kylemii]

i think i agree with your rundown. rdw does seem like the most informative lynch all things being equal

it feels like we're on a tightrope rn.

The town is poised upon the edge of a knife - stray but a little, and it will fail.

really fucking ominous but okay

[speedchuck]

hej hej, @speedchuck what were the specific nationalities of your pre-promote targets?

Lapluie was allyria

Everyone else was goodguyia