Cerberus Tribe - Day 9

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Lynched Speechuck tomorrow though.

I mean the guy gets revealed as town then we have another role revealed that explicitely reveals other roles as opposed faction. This is confirmation that Speed is bad. Of course, there are a number of ways where this could be wrong, but we should at the very least be strongly considering it.

Mechanical confirmation by host > whatever scumhunting method you like to use.

[colonialbob]

Sorry people I had no idea things had settled out. I was waiting for some kind of notification. I haven't read this thread at all, before I do am I still alive?

[Golden]

Sorry people I had no idea things had settled out. I was waiting for some kind of notification. I haven't read this thread at all, before I do am I still alive?

Yes.

[colonialbob]

Ok well sorry for missing the day, I'll go catch up now.

[Quin]

Lynched Speechuck tomorrow though.

I mean the guy gets revealed as town then we have another role revealed that explicitely reveals other roles as opposed faction. This is confirmation that Speed is bad. Of course, there are a number of ways where this could be wrong, but we should at the very least be strongly considering it.

Mechanical confirmation by host > whatever scumhunting method you like to use.

I like my suggestion. He's confirmed scum from the Limited information we have, so let's wait for more information.

[colonialbob]

Also I just realized C Bob did not vote that day at all.

Fake news

I'm pretty sure I voted every day

[colonialbob]

Also I just realized C Bob did not vote that day at all.

Fake news

I'm pretty sure I voted every day

(Except today because I didn't realize we had restarted)

[LoRab]

Crap weasel. Totally got distracted, and also forgot that being in California means the time of lynches is also different. Clearly I need sleep.

[S~V~S]

Also I just realized C Bob did not vote that day at all.

Fake news

I'm pretty sure I voted every day

I saved all of our polls except the last one. I will check again but am pretty sure you did miss that one day but I might have missed you if you voted for an outlier, I will double-check.

[S~V~S]

I keep going back and forth on Chuck. I kind of still think he's bad based on his aggressive defense of LC. But not for the reasons you all seem to. I don't think Nutella's role had anything to do with that flip. If he's bad he's LCs teammate. If we Lynch him I think he's going to actually appear as the role that was posted, which will mean Nutella did not do it.

I had thought he had been targeted by LC once it became clear they were not gonna Lynch Dom. So if he wins bad we prolly won't know about it until the game is over.

[S~V~S]

Flips bad not wins bad, autocorrect plus bad typing equals fail.

[sig]

Not lynching Speed is like having a red check and saying nah not enough information.

We need him gone tomorrow.

[S~V~S]

Not lynching Speed is like having a red check and saying nah not enough information.

We need him gone tomorrow.

I am not going to fight it; I spent DAYS trying to get people to listen to me about him being bad, and everyone blew me off because "maths". But this reasoning seems wrong to me. I doubt there are two bad role revealers, and I would think there might be a civ one.

But after the lynch, if he flips civ, we need to talk about opportunism, especially from the people who did not see what went down at Pikachu. We spent 5 days (calendar days, not Mafia days) wrangling and arguing and getting fairly heated at times over the LC lynches, and the alternative Chuck and LC were trying to promote. If Chuck winds up bad post game and is NOT LCs partner, I will eat a hat or something. I don't think that is possible. He is either LC's partner (thus Nutella could not have revealed him being a teammate) or he's a civ, because I don't see a baddie defending as hard as Chuck did anyone who was not a teammate.

Sig, I am looking at you if he does not flip bad. Right straight at you. Your "lynch him lynch him" deal is the most opportunistic thing I have seen in a long time.

Also I just realized C Bob did not vote that day at all.

Fake news

I'm pretty sure I voted every day

You did not vote on Day 5, I triple checked.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I doubt there are two bad role revealers

What are you talking about? We only need one bad role revealer.

Your you mean LC's role too?

[colonialbob]

Lynched Speechuck tomorrow though.

I mean the guy gets revealed as town then we have another role revealed that explicitely reveals other roles as opposed faction. This is confirmation that Speed is bad. Of course, there are a number of ways where this could be wrong, but we should at the very least be strongly considering it.

Mechanical confirmation by host > whatever scumhunting method you like to use.

I like my suggestion. He's confirmed scum from the Limited information we have, so let's wait for more information.

What kind of information? How are we acquiring this information?

[S~V~S]

I doubt there are two bad role revealers

What are you talking about? We only need one bad role revealer.

Your you mean LC's role too?

No. I mean that the main reason he appears to be bad was his aggressive defense of LC. Nutella was on LCs team. Nutella could not use her role on a member of her team. There for I do not believe Nutella to have faux revealed Chucks role, I believe that to have been a true reveal.

I doubt there are two roles that could make a false reveal, like Nutella role, in the thread. So I think his role may have been revealed by a civ revealer.

I cannot make sense of a bad Chuck not on LCs team. Can't do it. I am amazed that you, or anyone who was on Pikachu, CAN think Chuck could be bad yet not LCs teammate.

So like I said, I won't fight it. I still think he could be bad based on the LC lynch. But I also think he's gonna flip the role posted in Pikachu, which will mean he is not Nutellas target. And we won't know till end game if he actually is bad.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

It's just a matter of method. If a player is revealed as scum by abilities, I abandon any pre-conceptions about their alignment I might have, and follow the abilities. because the cprobability of those being right is considerably higher than whatever conclusion I had before. Scumhunting is not reliable.

[S~V~S]

It's just a matter of method. If a player is revealed as scum by abilities, I abandon any pre-conceptions about their alignment I might have, and follow the abilities. because the cprobability of those being right is considerably higher than whatever conclusion I had before. Scumhunting is not reliable.

I disagree. The roles in this game are a massive clusterfuck (and I mean this as a compliment [mention]Golden[/mention] ). Jumping to conclusions based on host posts when we have seen some fairly insane roles is ill advised, imo. Two roles we have seen can falsify results. I think the thread is more reliable in this circumstance.

But like I said, I have thought he was bad since LCs first lynch, so not sure why I am even arguing this point. I think the thread points to him being bad. So we can agree to disagree on methodology, I suppose. But if he flips civ, I don't want you to lecture me on "host info > baddie hunting" again.

[colonialbob]

I doubt there are two roles that could make a false reveal, like Nutella role, in the thread. So I think his role may have been revealed by a civ revealer.

Wait, I'm confused. Are you saying you don't think nutella revealed speedchuck because you don't believe her role flip?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

It's just a matter of method. If a player is revealed as scum by abilities, I abandon any pre-conceptions about their alignment I might have, and follow the abilities. because the cprobability of those being right is considerably higher than whatever conclusion I had before. Scumhunting is not reliable.

I disagree. The roles in this game are a massive clusterfuck (and I mean this as a compliment @Golden ). Jumping to conclusions based on host posts when we have seen some fairly insane roles is ill advised, imo. Two roles we have seen can falsify results. I think the thread is more reliable in this circumstance.

But like I said, I have thought he was bad since LCs first lynch, so not sure why I am even arguing this point. I think the thread points to him being bad. So we can agree to disagree on methodology, I suppose. But if he flips civ, I don't want you to lecture me on "host info > baddie hunting" again.

If he flips civ, I will give it to you for making a good thread read, but I stand by my method. The chance of that exact ability being coincidentally screwed up is much lower than the chance that we simply cannot read Speedchuck's mind perfectly.

[sig]

I don't see how shenanigans could work, unless it's something to do with Speed's role, since it was a day action not a night one.

This is also an obviously pro mafia power. so I doubt it's fake in anyway. You pick someone you think is a civ bam they look like mafia and you waste a day lynching them. The only think that puzzles me is that the mafia team didn't try to kill him.

[speedchuck]

SVS is doing a great job of reading my motives. I follow her train of thought perfectly, and agree with it.

But if I were in the position of DDL or Sig, I'd be out for blood regardless. And if I understand their position, which I believe I do, there is no point in defending my towniness. It's the same as my 'mathematically, Quin is town' position. There could be another vote manip (probably is) who happened to affect the lynches in the same way LC did (probably not), which would nullify my Quin townfirm.

In the same way, there could be (and there is) a role that publicly cops a player, without lying about it. That much I know, from my position. But there's no way for me to convince people of that, and without claims, no way for anyone else to defend me.

This situation is the equivalent of me being publicly revealed as scum, and then a public rolecop flip happening right after. Sure, there COULD be an opposite counterpart in the game. But really, nobody is going to look at those odds, or read me. Especially since I happen to be decent at playing the baddie.

If everyone ends up in agreement, I'll spend tomorrow scumhunting and then self-vote. I don't need to save myself to point you in the right direction.

linki: Sig, I think SVS is arguing that there is another role that revealed me, not nutella's.

[Dom]

I doubt there are two bad role revealers

What are you talking about? We only need one bad role revealer.

Your you mean LC's role too?

No. I mean that the main reason he appears to be bad was his aggressive defense of LC. Nutella was on LCs team. Nutella could not use her role on a member of her team. There for I do not believe Nutella to have faux revealed Chucks role, I believe that to have been a true reveal.

I doubt there are two roles that could make a false reveal, like Nutella role, in the thread. So I think his role may have been revealed by a civ revealer.

I cannot make sense of a bad Chuck not on LCs team. Can't do it. I am amazed that you, or anyone who was on Pikachu, CAN think Chuck could be bad yet not LCs teammate.

So like I said, I won't fight it. I still think he could be bad based on the LC lynch. But I also think he's gonna flip the role posted in Pikachu, which will mean he is not Nutellas target. And we won't know till end game if he actually is bad.

There already are two roles that give fake reveals.
Nutella's and LC's.

So you think there's a civ version?

[sig]

I find that harder to believe, it's not in principle a pro civ power. The whole purpose of fake role reveals is that mafia gain something from it, what would town get from a false result.

[speedchuck]

I find that harder to believe, it's not in principle a pro civ power. The whole purpose of fake role reveals is that mafia gain something from it, what would town get from a false result.

A civ TRUE role revealer

[S~V~S]

I doubt there are two bad role revealers

What are you talking about? We only need one bad role revealer.

Your you mean LC's role too?

No. I mean that the main reason he appears to be bad was his aggressive defense of LC. Nutella was on LCs team. Nutella could not use her role on a member of her team. There for I do not believe Nutella to have faux revealed Chucks role, I believe that to have been a true reveal.

I doubt there are two roles that could make a false reveal, like Nutella role, in the thread. So I think his role may have been revealed by a civ revealer.

I cannot make sense of a bad Chuck not on LCs team. Can't do it. I am amazed that you, or anyone who was on Pikachu, CAN think Chuck could be bad yet not LCs teammate.

So like I said, I won't fight it. I still think he could be bad based on the LC lynch. But I also think he's gonna flip the role posted in Pikachu, which will mean he is not Nutellas target. And we won't know till end game if he actually is bad.

There already are two roles that give fake reveals.
Nutella's and LC's.

So you think there's a civ version?

Quite possible. What would be the point of a fake role revealer if there wasn't a REAL role revealer? I don't recall if you played BSG, but Golden wanted to keep people guessing. If people can solve the game from a few posts, Golden thinks he has failed.

Like I said earlier, I have thought Chuck was bad forever. I think we will learn more from a lynch of somebody else. I think he is going to flip that role that was posted in Pikachu. I would be so incredibly shocked if Chuck was a baddie unaffiliated with LC. We went so waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out on a limb to save LC (you recall, you were the one he was dangling off the end of that branch), he has to be a teammate or a misguided civ who thought LC was getting railroaded. That role reveal gave me enough doubt, that I wanted to just watch him for a while.

This Nutella business is a wild goose chase, imo. Why would a baddie use her one time power to save a baddie from another team, especially when she died by surprise and probably wasn't expecting to die? They would use it to make someone look bad, not good.

Saying this points to Chuck being bad makes no sense to me, tbh. Andas I said earlier, the ones who pushed the hardest for it will be the ones I look at the hardest after the lynch, if I am right about this.

But again, I have thought he was bad since Day 4. I think we're going to learn zero from this, but OK. Let's lynch him

[S~V~S]

*He went so way out on a limb

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I don't see how shenanigans could work, unless it's something to do with Speed's role, since it was a day action not a night one.

This is also an obviously pro mafia power. so I doubt it's fake in anyway. You pick someone you think is a civ bam they look like mafia and you waste a day lynching them. The only think that puzzles me is that the mafia team didn't try to kill him.

Well it does give them a free lynch on someone not from their team after Nutella dies.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

This Nutella business is a wild goose chase, imo. Why would a baddie use her one time power to save a baddie from another team, especially when she died by surprise and probably wasn't expecting to die? They would use it to make someone look bad, not good.

She didn't know Speed was bad. She saw a guy who could look bad by association with LC, and seized the opportunity to frame a civ.

[juliets]

Night pms are due by 5:11 pm set, or approximately 1 hour and 50 minutes.

[Quin]

Lynched Speechuck tomorrow though.

I mean the guy gets revealed as town then we have another role revealed that explicitely reveals other roles as opposed faction. This is confirmation that Speed is bad. Of course, there are a number of ways where this could be wrong, but we should at the very least be strongly considering it.

Mechanical confirmation by host > whatever scumhunting method you like to use.

I like my suggestion. He's confirmed scum from the Limited information we have, so let's wait for more information.

What kind of information? How are we acquiring this information?

We wait for more flips. If we lynch him now, an actual exposer might flip later down the line. The probability of him being scum only increases the longer we wait.

[Quin]

Question for the thread: Would you be thinking about lynching speedchuck if it weren't for nutella's reveal?

[Quin]

I find that harder to believe, it's not in principle a pro civ power. The whole purpose of fake role reveals is that mafia gain something from it, what would town get from a false result.

A civ version would work normally, like in Phenon.

[Quin]

Let me put this a different way:

If nutella was the only one that can expose a players role, truthfully or falsely, when she flips her target is fucked regardless because we just flip around the alignments for the true result. That seems unfair. I don't believe that this game is unfair.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Let me put this a different way:

If nutella was the only one that can expose a players role, truthfully or falsely, when she flips her target is fucked regardless because we just flip around the alignments for the true result. That seems unfair. I don't believe that this game is unfair.

Role madness mafia is not fair.

[Golden]

New isos are up.

[S~V~S]

Let me put this a different way:

If nutella was the only one that can expose a players role, truthfully or falsely, when she flips her target is fucked regardless because we just flip around the alignments for the true result. That seems unfair. I don't believe that this game is unfair.

Role madness mafia is not fair.

What?

[Golden]

Sorry for post lateness - incoming shortly.

[Golden]

MacDougall was frustrated. Not everyone had done the job that he hoped, and he didn’t take kindly to failure. He was concerned that the meddling of the Citadel Council was becoming problematic.

He had a clear vision for his next target, however. He sent the acolytes out with nunchucks. If you’re committing murder, you may as well do it in style.

Night 8 has ended. Sprityo has died. He was:

15: Cecil (Welcome to Night Vale). Each night, you can write a news article to be published in the thread via the host.

It is now day 9. It will last for 48 hours

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Let me put this a different way:

If nutella was the only one that can expose a players role, truthfully or falsely, when she flips her target is fucked regardless because we just flip around the alignments for the true result. That seems unfair. I don't believe that this game is unfair.

Role madness mafia is not fair.

What?

It is not. Abilities flying around all the time and most of them are designed to keep players from doing what they want to do, reveal mafia players, redirect abilities and make townies kill each other. It's one million ways to screw up with attempts from players to play the game.

If you want a fair, competitive experience, a game with few power roles like a Heist is better.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

No Speechuck in the poll? Lame.

[S~V~S]

He's not on the poll? That's rich. I think our poll guy did a good job.

And I have played dozens and dozens of role madness games, and balance and fairness is possible and perfectly achievable. I think you just said that to discount any discussion of the likeliness of a faux role revealed without a true role revealed.

I am going to complete my read of sig today, and reading days four and five to figure out why sig had seven votes day five and zero on day four, with an eye tonwhat INH said.

[S~V~S]

Fie on autocorrect; role revealed not role revealed X2

[S~V~S]

REVEALER.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

He's not on the poll? That's rich. I think our poll guy did a good job.

And I have played dozens and dozens of role madness games, and balance and fairness is possible and perfectly achievable. I think you just said that to discount any discussion of the likeliness of a faux role revealed without a true role revealed.

I am going to complete my read of sig today, and reading days four and five to figure out why sig had seven votes day five and zero on day four, with an eye tonwhat INH said.

Balance is achievable. As in, a game where all players have a decent chance of winning.

Fairness is not. Role madness is designed to make some players get screwed up in ways beyond their control or fault.

If a player has a Framer role and they use it on a civ the same night the civ gets investigated, the civ is most likely going to be lynched. It's not fair, but it will happen.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

And please, don't say I want to discount any discussion. I'm not doing that. I'm stating my opinion. If you want to stop arguing with me, i'll stop.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Point is, if you say you don't believe Golden would design a game where Speedchuck could be lynched without chance for defense, I say that's perfectly in line with what I expect from role madness.

[speedchuck]

I think I know who the dude that took me off the poll is.

Thanks. You know who you are too.

[S~V~S]

Second time you're saved by the Bell.

Tell us your suspects, Chuck. You have a bully pulpit for a bit. Convince me.

[Quin]

Let me put this a different way:

If nutella was the only one that can expose a players role, truthfully or falsely, when she flips her target is fucked regardless because we just flip around the alignments for the true result. That seems unfair. I don't believe that this game is unfair.

Role madness mafia is not fair.

That's an argument in semantics, sir.