Cerberus Tribe - Day 9

[Dom]

Very Busy This Week

Wont be around much
Still suspect DDL

[S~V~S]

I remember Day 7, I got up at 4:30 to write a giant post for over an hour about why I suspected Chuck, posted it, then noticed he was off the poll. Good times.

I am beginning to understand why Sloonei brought in a DJ.

[Quin]

Very Busy This Week

Wont be around much
Still suspect DDL

terrible haiku. truly awful.

[S~V~S]

We brought Refrigerator with us?

And yeah, as the Haiku Queen of Pikachu, I concur, I have seen better Haiku

[S~V~S]

How did we go from a 50/50 poll with no votes for sig Day 4 to the Mega sig train day 5? I am going to try to figure that out although if someone who was here wants to help me, that would be cool ..

Basic impressions so far, I started with Night 5, and am a ways into Day 5. I am SO SAD Jack O'H is dead, he was most def a civ, no question in my mind.
Scotty, for someone with a fairly baddie sounding role, spends alot of time judging people based on their first role.
LoRab talks alot about how busy she is.
Unless Booms game has changed immensely, he sounds pretty civ
Thoughts on Daisy & Wilgy? Anyone?


Day 4 Poll

Spoiler: show

Day 4
Who caused Jack's reanimation?

Poll ended at Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:58:13 pm
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.


Boomslang
5
38%
Voters: Marmot, Scotty, Sloonei, DrWilgy, Kylemii

DrWilgy
4
31%
Voters: Boomslang, nijuukyugou, Spacedaisy, sig

insertnamehere
0
No votes
Voters: None

JackofHearts2005
0
No votes
Voters: None

Kylemii
0
No votes
Voters: None

LoRab
0
No votes
Voters: None

Marmot
0
No votes
Voters: None

Nijuukyugou
0
No votes
Voters: None

Scotty
0
No votes
Voters: None

sig
0
No votes
Voters: None

Sloonei
1
8%
Voters: insertnamehere

Spacedaisy
0
No votes
Voters: None

Jeff Probst (host/nons)
3
23%
Voters: MovingPictures07, Golden, JaggedJimmyJay
Total votes: 13

Day 5 Poll

Spoiler: show

Day 5

Who shouldn't survive the cold snap?

Poll ended at Fri Mar 09, 2018 6:05:04 pm
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.


Boomslang
1
7%
Voters: DrWilgy

DrWilgy
0
No votes
Voters: None

insertnamehere
1
7%
Voters: Marmot

JackofHearts2005
0
No votes
Voters: None

Kylemii
0
No votes
Voters: None

LoRab
0
No votes
Voters: None

Marmot
1
7%
Voters: Spacedaisy

Nijuukyugou
0
No votes
Voters: None

Scotty
0
No votes
Voters: None

sig
7
50%
Voters: nijuukyugou, LoRab, Scotty, Sloonei, Boomslang, Jackofhearts2005, insertnamehere

Sloonei
0
No votes
Voters: None

Spacedaisy
0
No votes
Voters: None

Frosty (host/nons)
4
29%
Voters: juliets, JaggedJimmyJay, MacDougall, Golden
Total votes: 14

I think the role didn't make sense as anything but a civ role. My suspicion of him was mostly based on a loose idea he might be teammates with Wilgy, who I still strongly suspect and would rather we lynch today so if anyone is on board with that I am down to move to Wilgy. But INH's role reveal looked civ. So why would I now want to lynch him? Any real suspicion of him I had before is negated by the role reveal. His new role could have changed his alignment, but I don't see any reason to believe that over any of the other people who are in their second role. And I feel like his emotional response is real. I don't know if it is alignment indicative or not, but I see no good reason to vote him.

I still solidly believe Wilgy is bad. And I resent that you keep saying people are voting for Wilgy being WIlgy when I am voting him for the exact opposite reason. I think we are seeing a more serious gameplay Wilgy and it makes me believe he is bad as per meta I have observed from him as previous Baddie Wilgy.

Do you still feel the same about how roles sound in light of new knowledge from flips at Pikachu?

Look, you can go through my posts I posted a whole thing linking to his ISOs from games where he was bad, good and even one 3P game. So I have already given my thoughts on this, I don't have time to repeat myself. Clearly I do think he is playing to his Baddie meta.

As to the first point, you don't get what I'm saying. My point is my previous suspicion is negated by the fact I feel he pretty much flipped a civ role. And I have nothing since then that leads me to suspect him for being bad. So why would I vote for him? Just because he is in a second role? Is that what you are suggesting? If so I disagree. To borrow a sentiment from 3J, I am not playing against the hosts, I am playing against the mafia. I will cast my vote against those I suspect, not against those that I think the theories on setup could possibly make bad. That is not a solid reason to do anything IMO. I am not voting for Scotty because I don't suspect Scotty's play like I do Marmot's. In fact, I have for the most part felt like Scotty was giving me civ vibes.

Do you think Juliets and Golden are making alignments clear based on the first role only?

Isn't Scotty's first role bad?

If you're going to say that INH is good because of his first role, then you have to say Scott is bad because of his first role.

You're the one playing against the mods. You're basically saying "I don't think Golden and Juliets would give this power to a baddie."

I'm playing against INH and Scotty. I'm ignoring their powers and voting based on what they're saying.

Have I mentioned how much I <3 Jack? This guy is the civviest civ who ever civved.

to be continued, I need my job

And if anyone knows the answers, or has an opinion, feel free to chime in

[S~V~S]

As a reminder, if we don’t get a lynch through today, we definitely won’t get one until at least day 7, because colonial “Driveshaft” bob will be taking his bow day 6.

I could vote Marmot. He certainly hasn’t given us anything to work with as of late. I mean, I can name 3 other people id rather be voting for that look scummier to me, but whatevs.

Bing Bing Bing, first post of the day trying to herd the cats into making a cohesive vote.

@Scotty

More and more antsy about INH. Why?

I keep reading into role connotations and find it hard to believe that his first role wasn’t civ. His 2nd role could be anything, sure. It could even be a boat.

Still pretending his own first role doesn't exist.

THE CASE AGAINST SIG

this is gonna have to be multiple posts because ISO’ing someone is fucking impossible on phones

Quick non-insanified explanation of my Sig vote yesterday.

I didn't like his statements on the haiku situation, it kinda felt like covering for possible liars.

I sided with Boomslang on the whole 70% comment. Thought it was weird, and didn't like how people jumped to sig's defense and attacked Boomslang simply for pointing it out.

Then there's his flippity floppity treatment of Sloonei which just felt disingenuous. TBH, I might end up voting for him again today.

To elaborate, he went from town reading Sloonei to voting for him to once again to town reading him to calling his posts scummy a couple hours later. All the while, he was accusing Sloonei of “flip-flipping.” He later provided some explanations that were more than a little half-assed, IMO.

Early in the game, he called Sloonei’s case against me weak and thought it reflected poorly on Sloonei.

By Day 4, he’s completely reversed that opinion, and considers me one of his top suspects because he now believes Sloonei’s early case against me was “good.”

He just hasn’t really shown any consistency in his reads and views, seemingly changing them depending on which way the wind blows. He hasn’t contributed much if any substantial content to the thread, and is by far the strongest candidate for today’s lynch, in my opinion.

After being goaded into posting by suspicion, INH makes first mention of sig in Day 5, approximately 7 hours before the day ends. Up to this point, many have expressed suspicion of INH, and none of sig that I can see during this specific day phase. INH has apparently suspected sig for a while and still does today on Day 9. Good look for INH, imo.

With this long standing suspish, I am surprised he isn't in here periodically (he's hosting, has a life, etc) reminding us of how bad sig is. He only popped in once yesterday iirc, when we started talking about lynching DDL, and then missed the vote.

I can see the case on Wilgy for sure, but I really hate that Slang is pushing that he silenced himself or pretended to be silenced. That's a scummy thing to do and I do have the feeling that the mafia can easily jump on a Wilgy Wagon.

the hell is this post.

Lazy.

About to go into my next class so let I'll be throwing down a vote for wilgy. I'll catch up and hopefully be around to change it if i see fit.

[VOTE: dr.wilgy] aubergine

I'll be more active after Thursday promise

It's after thursday.

Scotty picks up the sig thread, BUT he has mentioned sig often to this point, and has even voted for him prior to day 5. He is still not looking great to me, but this makes him look better.

Here’s what I see:
INH has been busy hosting.
Marmot has been busy with whatever he’s got goig but has been actively engaged with the thread on the time he has has had. Maybe not the past few days, but a marked improvement over his early game.
Sig hasn’t been part of the game all game, and couldn’t care less.

@insertnamehere so to answer your question- probably

Or maybe not.

~~~~~

And I have not gotten any work done today, and I need my job to pay for cereal and rent and pet food, so here's hoping to seeing someone else post

Quickie synopsis, I think Scotty is bad.
I think Jack was good.
I am conflicted on Daisy.
I am conflicted on INH. I think seeing how the rest of the sig lynch goes will give me some clarity here.
I am up to the point like 6 hours before sig is lynched, and his name is just coming up.

I know he will be pleased to hear I said this; I wish Epi were here to give his thoughts on Bloopers game to date. I recall her being quiet and blendy in general, but THIS blendy?

Later, Cerberii

[S~V~S]

Quick question to the thread, and thoughts on intentional vote missing as a strategy?

With the mechanics in this game, the way the lynches work, a missed vote or two can make a big difference, can't it?

[speedchuck]

Second time you're saved by the Bell.

Tell us your suspects, Chuck. You have a bully pulpit for a bit. Convince me.

Dom and Quin are town IMO. There's a start.

[speedchuck]

No wait.

No, just Quin. Dunno about Dom.

[S~V~S]

No wait.

No, just Quin. Dunno about Dom.

Yes, I now agree. And this point makes me feel way better about you. Taking all of us out of the posting powerhouse that was Pikachu and putting us here where almost no one else is talking has led to some reassessment, methinks. I just wish I could wrap my head around what happened with you and LC, but unless we are allowed back into Pikachu after the eventual (presumed?) merge, so I can reread it all, I dunno.

Thoughts on DDL, with his extreme push for you? Misguided civ, or Dragon D. Baddie?

[sig]

I'd be good to go for bloober
Her second life has been very blendy it seems.

[speedchuck]

No wait.

No, just Quin. Dunno about Dom.

Yes, I now agree. And this point makes me feel way better about you. Taking all of us out of the posting powerhouse that was Pikachu and putting us here where almost no one else is talking has led to some reassessment, methinks. I just wish I could wrap my head around what happened with you and LC, but unless we are allowed back into Pikachu after the eventual (presumed?) merge, so I can reread it all, I dunno.

Thoughts on DDL, with his extreme push for you? Misguided civ, or Dragon D. Baddie?

I don't and won't judge anyone for pushing my lynch after nutella's flip. I would be pushing the same thing, whether using their reasoning or Quin's patience.

Evil Evens:

DDL had a not-so-great role in his first life. It was focused on survival, and looked scummy. LC also voted in a way early on that is consistent with them being teammates. None of this is clearer than when LC hopped over to my lynch instead of DDL's.
However, having them both be teammates gives them a ton of vote sway with those first lives. That makes it somewhat unlikely.

Wasn't DDL saved by LC, causing the lynch of nutella, though!? And nutella ended up LC's teammate.

Strexcorp:

Because DDL looked scummy, Epi tried comparing DDL to the other team, assuming that the other team was 'odds'. But DDL's role number was revealed, and he was even. So either we have two strong vote manips on the same team (DDLxLC), or the other scumteam was not odds.
The other scumteam was NOT odds. It was Strexcorp. DDLxMarmot is totally possible.

I feel like I'm rambling.

Conclusions/read:

DDL could be strexcorp. DDL's role raises balance questions if he's evil evens, but that is speculation. DDL was rescued by LC in favor of lynching someone whose second role was evil evens. That baffles me, unless nutella changed alignment, and LC was trying to frame town/other team DDL.

As for DDL's actions themselves, I think he coasted in early game and I don't like his push on my first role (Dom looked worse, though). To me, however, DDL has seemed very genuine insofar as gut read is concerned.

Follow all of that?

If we had any Strexcorp members in Pikachu at gamestart, which I think we did, I'd guess it's DDL or Dom. Epi is technically possible, but I don't think so.

[speedchuck]

Or Colonialbob, I suppose. I wish I could see who voted for him.

Cbob is NOT Evil Evens.

[S~V~S]

K, will think about that. And yeah, Evens are getting a tad crowded, with at least one over here, how many more than three members might they have with two teams total?

What I have read so far is leading me to think Scotty was/is LC's partner over here in Cerberus. I haven't fully iso-ed him yet, but everywhere I touch down, his posts have set off bells. I wonder if Jeff Probst will be visiting again; I sure would love for someone to get a look at what he's saying over there. I know he is someone we can't lynch, but it helps figure things out.

I very much want to hear some Cerberus opinions of Scotty.

Linki, I doubt it too re C-Bob.

[speedchuck]

Linki, I doubt it too re C-Bob.

Nutella's second life was evil evens.

If Cbob was evil evens, nutella knowingly voted and set a bomb off on herself. Knowing how busy nutella has been lately, would she give herself an extra full-day of quiz work to stay alive? I don't think so.

If Cbob is strexcorp, we should be looking at people who did not vote for him or voted early as possible teammates. What do you remember?

[S~V~S]

Linki, I doubt it too re C-Bob.

Nutella's second life was evil evens.

If Cbob was evil evens, nutella knowingly voted and set a bomb off on herself. Knowing how busy nutella has been lately, would she give herself an extra full-day of quiz work to stay alive? I don't think so.

If Cbob is strexcorp, we should be looking at people who did not vote for him or voted early as possible teammates. What do you remember?

Re Bob, not an immense amount. I did save all the polls up to day 5 though. I did not save 6. I should have though, especially in light of Bobs role flip. I can extract voting records later, although not orders obvs.

Another point to a Strexcorp baddie not trying too hard to lynch LC, like voting for a third party, or missing the vote, this letting Cerberus lynch~ it would have led to another day of thread derailing lynching LC. Then the C Bob lynch. Letting us lynch LC over and over again would most def have benefitted Strexcorp. This would be different than standard baddie behavior, but this is not a standard set of mechanics.

I still find Scotty way suspect, but not as sure of team. I somehow was not surprised to see him trying to spearhead the Day Five "We must Lynch" train. But after I finish reading Day 5 here, that may change.

[LoRab]

I’m confused why suspicion seems to have moved away from DDL.

In answer to your questions ACS, I don’t remember why I was feeling good about Scotty. Just general tone I think. Daisy I have no idea. Blooper I’ve had suspicion of on and off. wilgy has also been Suspish, but keeps wilgying out of it. Sig I’ve been back and forth on all game.

[speedchuck]

I’m confused why suspicion seems to have moved away from DDL.

Has it? Has it really?

[S~V~S]

I’m confused why suspicion seems to have moved away from DDL.

In answer to your questions ACS, I don’t remember why I was feeling good about Scotty. Just general tone I think. Daisy I have no idea. Blooper I’ve had suspicion of on and off. wilgy has also been Suspish, but keeps wilgying out of it. Sig I’ve been back and forth on all game.

It hasn't. I am (and now Chuck) the only one posting so I was posting about what I was reading in the thread trying to figure out what happened here on the day of the LC lynch. It looks like an effort to save LC may have been mounted here via the sigwagon. I still suspect DDL, but I would be surprised if there was only one baddie left. Then we are also trying to figure out which, if any, of the folks that came with us are bad.

What are your thoughts on DDL?

[speedchuck]

Regarding 2 scumteams:

I've played night vale mafia. That game had 19 players, with 2 scumteams and an independent. Each scumteam had 3 players. And I think that game was balanced.

Taking that general balance into account, throwing in a possible 3P for the GoC, upping the numbers by three, and keeping in mind that roles can change alignment from first role to second...

My best guess:
Strexcorp and Evil Evens have 3 baddies to start with, all in BTSC. Each team might have a recruit that becomes mafia after their first life. Nutella might have been that. Each team miiiiight have an extra mafioso who becomes town after first lynch, not in BTSC.

This puts both teams in a fluctuating state of 3-4 roles, which fits the balance of this game in my opinion.

Lots of vote manipulators on the mafia teams, based on the flips we've had. That's the only mechanical thing really pointing to DDL being townish.

As for the split, even if it was RNG'd up some, I think mafia NOT having communication across tribes would be crippling. So at least one mafioso in each tribe makes sense. And that's how we caught LC in the first place.

Conclusion: Each team has 1-2 members in each tribe starting out. Probably 2, with a chance of defectors and recruits before this thing is over. I would suggest that we make that general assumption for POE. Assume that there were 4 baddies in each tribe from the start, 2 of each kind. That general observation will take care of recruits and defectors, in my opinion. We also need to keep in mind 3P players, of course.

I'll be doing some POE analysis based on this general assumption, and I think it will be helpful, even if we are not to treat the above as gospel.
(SVS is twitching over this assumption, I can tell you that. )

[speedchuck]

I miscounted. There are 23 players.
I'm going to stick with the assumption of 4 scum on each team, especially now.
Distribution of
14 town
4 Strex
4 Evens
1 indy

More analysis incoming.

[speedchuck]

Initial tribes (assuming 2 scum of each faction starting in each tribe, which includes defectors and recruits):

Boomslang
DrWilgy
insertnamehere - innoculation from SVS's role
Jackofhearts2005 - dead, probably town (his first role forced people to vote one way, second refreshed one-shots)
Kylemii
LoRab
Marmot - Strexcorp
nijuukyugou (nutella's BTSC partner originally)
Scotty - insanifier, scummy first role
sig - first role is incompetent helper
Sloonei
Spacedaisy

colonialbob - Not evens
dharmahelper - haikudude, probably town role (haikus provide protection from lynches with a post restriction)
Dom - not evens, for sure
Dragon D Luffy - vote manip first role, saved by LC in favor of lynching nutella, role #32
Epignosis - kept defending towny players, has been playing passionately (not at all like his night vale performance)
Long Con - Evens
nutella - Evens (maybe recruit)
Quin - town (I have pinpointed his role, and math on a lynch proves him town based on LC's role)
Speedchuck - town (meeeeee)
sprityo - Town for first life (what kid of mafia role is cecil?)
S~V~S - approached her first role in a towny way

Side Note:
Evil Evens kill on Even days
Strexcorp on odd days

Look at marmot's activation of his role for indication of this.

I'm going to grab some lunch, but as you can see, a lot of Pikachu v1 has been figured out. I'm going to do some POE in that. If my calculations are correct, there is at least one Strex in Pikachu V1. Maybe, just maybe, another Strex, a strex recruit, or an Even (only if Nutella was a recruit. Odds of another even in pikachu are low IMO, even in that case.)

[speedchuck]

I still find Scotty way suspect, but not as sure of team. I somehow was not surprised to see him trying to spearhead the Day Five "We must Lynch" train. But after I finish reading Day 5 here, that may change.

"WE MUST LYNCH."

Couple of things about that. As you have noticed, we can POE the roles in Pikachu v1 really well. A mafia member in Cerberus v1 would WANT lynches on their side, so that their teammates aren't completely screwed over.
An EVEN mafia member might want to save LC for 2 more days (thanks to cbob's role).

Or Scotty could have just been a fed-up townie.

[speedchuck]

Cbob, Dom, Epi, DDL.

Three of these players are now in cerberus with us. My analysis says that there is probably 2 scum among them. Definitely 1. I don't think it's Epi.

All of the scum among these are probably Strexcorp, no matter the number. Cbob's role is the most incriminating. Dom's push on LC may have been caused by Dom noticing the cerberus name, because he's seen cerberus. A stretch, but notable. DDL's bad looks mostly come from the evens, and I don't think we had 3 evens hanging out in Pikachu. At the same time, he doesn't look super.

Epi could be an option.

I will [VOTE: colonialbob] aubergine for now.

I want thoughts on the analysis above, especially from the cerberii.

[LoRab]

I’m confused why suspicion seems to have moved away from DDL.

In answer to your questions ACS, I don’t remember why I was feeling good about Scotty. Just general tone I think. Daisy I have no idea. Blooper I’ve had suspicion of on and off. wilgy has also been Suspish, but keeps wilgying out of it. Sig I’ve been back and forth on all game.

It hasn't. I am (and now Chuck) the only one posting so I was posting about what I was reading in the thread trying to figure out what happened here on the day of the LC lynch. It looks like an effort to save LC may have been mounted here via the sigwagon. I still suspect DDL, but I would be surprised if there was only one baddie left. Then we are also trying to figure out which, if any, of the folks that came with us are bad.

What are your thoughts on DDL?

I think the logic of him being bad makes sense. I could see lc and la both voting him as teammates, knowing he had -2 votes, to create perceived distance. I would have likely voted him last Lynch if I hadn’t missed the vote.

As for the split, even if it was RNG'd up some, I think mafia NOT having communication across tribes would be crippling. So at least one mafioso in each tribe makes sense. And that's how we caught LC in the first place.

Golden has said more than once that the tribes were completely randomized. I think it is dangerous to assume he was being disingenuous.

As for gung ho day 5 we must Lynch attitude, I think a lot of that came out of our tribe’s frustration with our inability to actually Lynch.

[S~V~S]

I still find Scotty way suspect, but not as sure of team. I somehow was not surprised to see him trying to spearhead the Day Five "We must Lynch" train. But after I finish reading Day 5 here, that may change.

"WE MUST LYNCH."

Couple of things about that. As you have noticed, we can POE the roles in Pikachu v1 really well. A mafia member in Cerberus v1 would WANT lynches on their side, so that their teammates aren't completely screwed over.
An EVEN mafia member might want to save LC for 2 more days (thanks to cbob's role).

Or Scotty could have just been a fed-up townie.

I dunno. Every where I touched down and read his posts, they struck me as baddimus maximus.

That was the day of the LC lynch in Pikachu, so I would expect his team to be hell bent on lynching over here in Cerberus. Every day we are lynching LC, we are not lynching Nutella, etc.

I have not finished reading Day 5, but will after work. Where I am is 6 hours before the lynch, and not one vote cast for sig yet.

And I have no problems with POE per se; I just think it is not reliable on day 2 when you know nothing about roles or mechanics, haven't had an NK and the lynches only reveal roles not affiliations. It's a lot more feasible now.

Linki @ LoRab, you don't find the fact that the WE MUST LYNCH day coincided with LCs 2nd lynch day to be eye catching?

[speedchuck]

Golden has said more than once that the tribes were completely randomized. I think it is dangerous to assume he was being disingenuous.

As for gung ho day 5 we must Lynch attitude, I think a lot of that came out of our tribe’s frustration with our inability to actually Lynch.

What if the tribes were randomized and one side ended up with only one mafioso?
What if one tribe ended up with no Evens, and the evens were handicapped?

Etcetera.

I don't know much about the setup, and I do believe that Golden randomized things. But, if both mafia teams didn't have at least one member in each tribe, I'm calling Golden out for poor game design. A mafia team that cannot see or effect HALF THE GAME is a mafia team that is destined to lose.

If you want to pare my assumptions down, then take the following into account:
If there was not a single Strexcorp baddie in Pikachu, OR if there was not a singe Evil Even in Cerberus, this game is busted as hell.

We know Long Con knew the name of this tribe. So I know he had a buddy here. Heck, he even said something like "You guys need to let cerberus have some lynches" when the rest of us had no idea what was going on. There is, at the very least, ONE Evil Even in Cerberus V1.

I'm going to assume that Marmot had a buddy in Pikachu, because Golden isn't a terrible game designer. And his buddy is likely one of the four I narrowed it to.

For balance's sake, I think there are (including defectors/recruits) more that 3 baddies on each team, like I said before. I think it's LIKELY that there were 2ish of each team on each tribe. I'm making that assumption to do some solving. But that is an assumption, and I won't rely on it all game.

I WILL rely on there being a Strexbad in Pikachu and an Even in Cerberus at gamestart.

Make sense?

[speedchuck]

I would not be opposed to lynching an OG Cerberite today. It gives us more information to puzzle out Days 1-8.

[LoRab]

The host says differently.

I feel like this is in the rules somewhere.

When you die and get a new role, we don’t know alignment may be different, yeah? That is, could it be an okay thing to get lynched as mafia?

Are roles assigned randomly as first and second roles? That is, could there be only one mafia in this tribe?

Anyone besides Marmot feel like self voting?

2nd roles are not assigned randomly. They were paired and the players received a pair at random.

As was noted in the second post of the thread, the split of players into tribes was random. There is no guarantee of any particular number or ratio of any alignment in the tribe.

But Golden said it was completely random:

I feel like this is in the rules somewhere.

When you die and get a new role, we don’t know alignment may be different, yeah? That is, could it be an okay thing to get lynched as mafia?

Are roles assigned randomly as first and second roles? That is, could there be only one mafia in this tribe?

Anyone besides Marmot feel like self voting?

2nd roles are not assigned randomly. They were paired and the players received a pair at random.

As was noted in the second post of the thread, the split of players into tribes was random. There is no guarantee of any particular number or ratio of any alignment in the tribe.

That doesn't seem like a tricksy host answer, but I guess it could be.

There is no trick. I put all your names in a randomiser. The first half went to one beach, the next half to another.

[speedchuck]

I guess we never asked these questions in Pikachu.

"There is no guarantee of any particular number or ratio of any alignment in the tribe."
Number or Ratio, huh?

What about "Presence"? Is the PRESENCE of each alignment guaranteed in a tribe?

...

The answer to that is NO, if there are any 3P players. You can't be in two tribes at once.

Did Golden guarantee that there was any Strexcorp access to Pikachu?
Y'know what? If Golden didn't guarantee it, the game might be busted for Strex. But if he did, then I'm using that for POE, which isn't quite fair. On top of that, considering the tribes being randomly messed around as they just were... As well as the weirdness of double roles... And SVS's nullifier being in the wrong tribe... And there only being one lynch, which could snowball out of control with the vote manips/uneven participation...

I think DDL is right. This game isn't fair at all. Balanced, maybe, in terms of there not being a clear winner. But dang, this is a hot mess.
(No offense meant to [mention]Golden[/mention]. This game is perfectly fun. I'm just going to stop making balancing conclusions.)

[S~V~S]

Well, we know the Evens were split. They killed in both tribes, and LC knew things about Cerberus; it's why he was lynched.

[S~V~S]

When using targeted abilities, you may only target people on your tribe.

So the evens were split between tribes.

[speedchuck]

Well, we know the Evens were split. They killed in both tribes, and LC knew things about Cerberus; it's why he was lynched.

Yes, I mentioned that in one of my mammoth posts.

On a side note, I checked, and nobody over here mentioned Pikachu until Sloonei was being sent over.

[S~V~S]

Well, we know the Evens were split. They killed in both tribes, and LC knew things about Cerberus; it's why he was lynched.

Yes, I mentioned that in one of my mammoth posts.

On a side note, I checked, and nobody over here mentioned Pikachu until Sloonei was being sent over.

Ha ha the first thing I did when I got here was a thread search for Pikachu.

[LoRab]

I still find Scotty way suspect, but not as sure of team. I somehow was not surprised to see him trying to spearhead the Day Five "We must Lynch" train. But after I finish reading Day 5 here, that may change.

"WE MUST LYNCH."

Couple of things about that. As you have noticed, we can POE the roles in Pikachu v1 really well. A mafia member in Cerberus v1 would WANT lynches on their side, so that their teammates aren't completely screwed over.
An EVEN mafia member might want to save LC for 2 more days (thanks to cbob's role).

Or Scotty could have just been a fed-up townie.

I dunno. Every where I touched down and read his posts, they struck me as baddimus maximus.

That was the day of the LC lynch in Pikachu, so I would expect his team to be hell bent on lynching over here in Cerberus. Every day we are lynching LC, we are not lynching Nutella, etc.

I have not finished reading Day 5, but will after work. Where I am is 6 hours before the lynch, and not one vote cast for sig yet.

And I have no problems with POE per se; I just think it is not reliable on day 2 when you know nothing about roles or mechanics, haven't had an NK and the lynches only reveal roles not affiliations. It's a lot more feasible now.

Linki @ LoRab, you don't find the fact that the WE MUST LYNCH day coincided with LCs 2nd lynch day to be eye catching?

Totally makes sense. Hard to reframe it from an outside perspective if that makes sense. I need to reread that day myself with a new lens.

[speedchuck]

D1 - Quin - survived
N1 - niju (Strexkill)
D2 - speedchuck
N2 - Scotty (Evens)
D3 - nutella (changed from DDL)
N3 - JoH (Strexkill)
INH dies
D4 - Long Con
N4 - Evens blocked by Strex
D5 - Long Con
N5 - Sig (Strex)
D6 - Cbob
N6 - SVS (Evens)
D7 - Marmot

BUTTON

N7 - JoH (Strex)
Nutella dies
D8 - Marmot
N8 - Sprityo (Evens)

What can we learn from this?

1. If the game is actually randomized completely, it is likely that no Strex players were in Pikachu. Or, if not likely, this is at least an explanation for their kill.
2. There is still an Even in Pikachu. If it's someone who stayed, that someone is almost certainly Epignosis. But I don't think so. I think it more likely that the Cerberus Even moved over there.
3. Unless they are a recruit (like I think nutella was, personally), niju and Sig are not Strex. JoH wasn't either. (obvious, but I'm pointing it out anyway.)

[speedchuck]

Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

[S~V~S]

I think Nutella was bad from the get go, based on her posts.

Also forgot Scotty was an even kill, so he is unlikely to be LC's teammate.

[speedchuck]

Also forgot Scotty was an even kill, so he is unlikely to be LC's teammate.

So let's knock "evens" off for Scotty. He could be Strex.

But IF Strex was isolated in Cerberus, why would they want a lynch to happen over here? We saw what happened when the lynch happened. :P

[Quin]

I would not be opposed to lynching an OG Cerberite today. It gives us more information to puzzle out Days 1-8.

We have the most information about the Evens. This is what I'd recommend.

[S~V~S]

Also forgot Scotty was an even kill, so he is unlikely to be LC's teammate.

So let's knock "evens" off for Scotty. He could be Strex.

But IF Strex was isolated in Cerberus, why would they want a lynch to happen over here? We saw what happened when the lynch happened. :P

Who else were we suspecting when LC came under the gun?

Also, since we were doing all the lynches, keeping us busy with LC for more days could be a bonus for them. If the more motivated tribe is busy lynching LC, then they are not lynching anyone else. And I doubt they were isolated in Cerberus. I know what LoRab posted before about the randomization, but I still think it likely there was at least one in Pikachu.

No way of knowing what you propose is true or not, and if all things are unknown, I trust my gut. I would be surprised if Scotty was not bad.

[Quin]

Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

I think I've sorted Dom.

[speedchuck]

Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

I think I've sorted Dom.

Do you agree or disagree with me?

[Quin]

Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

I think I've sorted Dom.

Do you agree or disagree with me?

I kind of tricked myself into associating roles with alignments, which is more or less a no-go in this game.

I don't think him pointing out the slip reflects badly on him, though.

[speedchuck]

Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

I think I've sorted Dom.

Do you agree or disagree with me?

I kind of tricked myself into associating roles with alignments, which is more or less a no-go in this game.

I don't think him pointing out the slip reflects badly on him, though.

Makes sense.

Doesn't answer my question.

[Quin]

Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

I think I've sorted Dom.

Do you agree or disagree with me?

I kind of tricked myself into associating roles with alignments, which is more or less a no-go in this game.

I don't think him pointing out the slip reflects badly on him, though.

Makes sense.

Doesn't answer my question.

I disagree with you because [insert what I just said]

[speedchuck]

Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

I think I've sorted Dom.

Do you agree or disagree with me?

I kind of tricked myself into associating roles with alignments, which is more or less a no-go in this game.

I don't think him pointing out the slip reflects badly on him, though.

Makes sense.

Doesn't answer my question.

I disagree with you because [insert what I just said]

I have no idea what role Dom is. Your post doesn't address my reasons for suspecting/not suspecting him.

[juliets]

Lorab has died. She was:

You are 42: The button (Chicka Chicka 1, 2, 3). The button does something - do you want to press it? You may press the button at any time. The button comes with two charges, each of which has different effects.

The thread is now locked.

[Golden]

Hello everyone.

The main thread is now open. All further posting is to occur there. The tribe threads are now locked.

I will be creating a new poll and restarting the day in due course. In addition, everyone will be given view permissions to both threads.