Game of Champions 2017 - GAME OVER

[Sloonei]

who would be a better lynch tomorrow: colonialbob or dom?

[Epignosis]

who would be a better lynch tomorrow: colonialbob or dom?

colonialbob

[Sloonei]

who would be a better lynch tomorrow: colonialbob or dom?

colonialbob

why?

[Epignosis]

who would be a better lynch tomorrow: colonialbob or dom?

colonialbob

why?

colonialbob died once.

[Spacedaisy]

So JoH was killed by Strex twice. Which would say to me that he might have been hitting on someone that worried them. So I went back and looked at those people and this is what I have right now:

sig and sloonei at first, thinking they were teammates he later backs off sloonei but still seems somewhat suspicious of sig
marmot - we already know he wasn't strex
Boomslang off and on, more on as he went on
INH definitely the biggest suspect he had, he was pushing pretty hard for us to try and lynch INH to get him permanently deaded

If I am going to say his suspicions were a factor in his being killed twice, I would be looking at INH. Also the fact that he was the strongest case JoH pushed and INH gave the strongest defense of Wilgy.

Or I might go back to looking at Boomslang again because of the fact Boomslang appears in this list and he would be someone I would think might have a reason to NK Blooper on N1. I can't see a good reason for Wilgy, LA, or LC wanting to NK Blooper N1. Boomslang I can, it is harder to hide it from the person you live with. Not impossible, but harder. We considered this briefly after her first death but dismissed it as WIFOM. And I probably wouldn't consider it on its own, but in connection with this I would.

That said, I'm concerned about the fact we have got three of one and only one of the other. And also the number of players we might have on each team. I would anticipate no more than four on each team by the second roles. And I think there were probably less than that in the first roles. I don't think we would ever have more than four on each team. And I'm not how confident I feel about there being more than three. Just the numbers seem to be getting to an imbalanced level if you consider Scotty's first role as what appears to be 3P.

Anyway, I'm going to try and take a look at some of the Evens kills. But if we think there is another Strex out there, I would be looking at Boomslang and INH.

[Spacedaisy]

Hold on... JoH died the first time before INH's first death and I feel comfortable with INH's first role being civ. I'm calling Boomslang as the last Strex.

[Epignosis]

marmot - we already know he wasn't strex

Flag on the play.

[Sloonei]

Marmot was strex

Linki: yeah

[Spacedaisy]

LOL, Ok I'm all kinds of confused about these teams then. Let me re-evaluate here.

[Sloonei]

who would be a better lynch tomorrow: colonialbob or dom?

colonialbob

why?

colonialbob died once.

Do you suspect one more than the other?

[DharmaHelper]

Listen whatever we decide I think it's really important that we all understand and agree that I'm the greatest. I'm so great.

[Spacedaisy]

oh wait wait, LC and nutella were Evens and Marmot and Wilgy were Strex. Good god, can I just claim foggy med brain and not have you all think I'm an idiot?

[Sloonei]

oh wait wait, LC and nutella were Evens and Marmot and Wilgy were Strex. Good god, can I just claim foggy med brain and not have you all think I'm an idiot?

I'll allow it

[Spacedaisy]

I still think I would be looking at Boomslang. Marmot could explain killing JoH, but... I don't know I still think Boomslang being in that list combined with the kill of Blooper makes me feel uneasy with Boom's alignment.

[Epignosis]

who would be a better lynch tomorrow: colonialbob or dom?

colonialbob

why?

colonialbob died once.

Do you suspect one more than the other?

I don't suspect dom at this time.

[Epignosis]

If dom is bad, he isn't on LC's team anyway.

[Scotty]

I like the flow of you guys right now. It’s like a pork roast on Fourth of July and no one is vegetarian

[Sloonei]

I like the flow of you guys right now. It’s like a pork roast on Fourth of July and no one is vegetarian

Do you have a file cabinet full of these?

[Scotty]

I like the flow of you guys right now. It’s like a pork roast on Fourth of July and no one is vegetarian

Do you have a file cabinet full of these?

No. The pork would spoil

[Kylemii]

sprityo claimed that he had a cool role early on and it seemed a little jarring? i didn't really understand the benefit of making such a claim, he also seems to have had more of a thread presence back then. did he die? he's on a watch lost for the remainder of my excursion

youre right ive lost some of my bravado and vigor from the early game

are you doing okay? are you alright

[Sloonei]

I don't have any idea how I'd go about balancing this game as a host, and I don't know enough about the mechanics and roles involved to speculate with much confidence here. That said, it would be helpful if we could work toward figuring out what the team sizes might be, and how many baddies there are remaining in this game right now. 23 players, everyone has 2 lives. Does that extra life feature work to town's advantage or scum's? Or is it even? what would the team sizes be if this was a relatively normal game?

[mention]Golden[/mention] will we be made aware if a team is fully eliminated? are you able to answer this?

[Scotty]

Okie Ima make a GTH type read list for myself. And the public. Like a selfie on social media.

Boomslang- GOOD WTF
colonialbob- BAD
dharmahelper- GOOD
Dom- BAD
Dragon D Luffy- GOOD
Epignosis- GOOD
insertnamehere- GOOD
Kylemii - GOOD
LoRab - INDIE
nijuukyugou - BAD
Quin -GOOD
Scotty - GOD
sig- BAD
Sloonei - GOOD
Spacedaisy - GOOD
sprityo - GOOD
S~V~S - BAD

biggest surprise for me is SVS as bad, Kyle as good, and boom as good. I already looked into Boom yesterday and I’m swayed for some reason. I can revisit him later, but boom is also the type of player that will creep into the end game without being killed, just based on the nature of his low posting habits.

I’ve enjoyed kyle’s re-entry into the game. A lot of this is gut but he seems readily engaged with the thread again. Could be that all of his baddie teammates keep dying and now he knows he needs to kick it into high gear to stay alive. I’d list him as more a baaaarely civ lean. He could easily fall back into “BAD” read but he’s not at the top of my list right now.

SVS is bad, but I don’t know why. I hAve no desire to lynch her right now, however. Epi is right- at least how I’m interpreting him- in that maybe the low-contributors are the outliers here. Lynching Speedchuck needed to happen ImO but I see the validity in keeping him around now since he was potently adding to discussion and solving the game. But his lynch was probably inevitable until a mechanic revealed itself to the contrary.

I will revisit SVS later as to why i feel that way. What pisses me off is Wilgy’s last comment regarding SVS being bad. It’s a huge soup of WIFOM and I’m trying to ignore it, but Wilgy was all but a dead man walking at that point and it has to be a strategic move. I could very well link her to Wilgy just on that, but then that wouldn’t be fair to SVS. Wilgy never did answer me when pressed on that, so wtf am I supposed to make of that? If anything, I find it most likely she changed alignments from 1 to 2, since y’all seem to think strex was never originally in Pikachu 1.0

[Golden]

You will be made aware when you win.

[Dom]

cerberus: which team would you think nju would be on if she is bad?

[Scotty]

For those of you pushing for Boomslang’s angle of strex affiliation and therefore killing Nijuu on N1, here’s a quote on Day 3:
Marmot wrote: ↑ Boomslang, who're you voting for today?

Why do you require a read on yourself from nijuu?

Still not 100% sure, but I could get behind a Wilgy vote. Based on posting patterns, I'm guessing either that he's bluffing or that Scotty/Blooper got a silence as their second role. I already didn't like his comment about killing himself before Bloops, and his response to my analysis of JoH was weird. He said I'd thought about Jack more than he had, then never responded why he thought Jack was good himself.

Therefore, I think a WIlgy lynch would give us good information. Imo, there's a not insignficant chance that he's bad, and if he's not, then I think we get valuable intel about Scotty/Blooper's targeting thoughts

Does that seem like someone that is paired with Wilgy? He did a continuation vote on Wilgy Day 4 as well.

Now for Bidoof’s day 5 lynch...

Funnily enough, looking at Day 5 (the LC lynch), Wilgy, Marmot (and Daisy) are the only people not voting for sig. Wilgy and Marmot didn’t even realize they were allowing another mafia team to get lynched.

In many ways, this is the most glaring case against sig, but that is ONLY if strex could see the vote totals on LC. Wilgy cast the last vote, 10 min before the EoD, and chose not to vote for sig. for no good reason.

[Spacedaisy]

I don't think she would be bad personally.

Linki: I like your case against sig Scotty. I would consider voting him. As to whether I believe Boom would or would not say that as a teammate, I would have to check his whole ISO to get a feel for it. But fair point.

[Spacedaisy]

If there were more people here I would follow Scotty's lead and suggest some GTH reads from all of us.

[sprityo]

sprityo claimed that he had a cool role early on and it seemed a little jarring? i didn't really understand the benefit of making such a claim, he also seems to have had more of a thread presence back then. did he die? he's on a watch lost for the remainder of my excursion

youre right ive lost some of my bravado and vigor from the early game

are you doing okay? are you alright

in any case im trying my best to be engaged where i can


Here's something i want to bring back up in recent light: we know LC was aware of Cerberus tribe. hence how we caught him slipping. So who from the cerberus tribe would fit the profile an evil even?

[sprityo]

cerberus: which team would you think nju would be on if she is bad?

Here's something i want to bring back up in recent light: we know LC was aware of Cerberus tribe. hence how we caught him slipping. So who from the cerberus tribe would fit the profile an evil even?

Nutella has died. She was:

86: Proton (Elemental) - You have BTSC with Electron. You will be sent a chat link for BTSC and must log in as "Proton". Each night, you will PM one element to the hosts (Air, Earth, Wind or Fire) and one player to be targeted for any effect the element may have. While Electron is in the game, they will also choose one element out of Air, Earth, Wind or Fire. When you and Electron are both in the game, your element choices will combine to form one effect. Your target will get the benefit of any positive effect, while Electrons target will suffer any negative effect. You may not choose the same pair of elements until each pair has been selected. If Electron dies before you, you may not select the same element on consecutive nights. You may not select the same target on consecutive nights. You will not be informed of the effects of your elements.

Night 1 has ended. Nijuukyugou has died. She was:

97: Electron (Elemental). You have BTSC with Proton. You will be sent a chat link for BTSC and must log in as "Electron". Each night, you will PM one element to the hosts (Air, Earth, Wind or Fire) and one player to be targeted for any effect the element may have. While Proton is in the game, they will also choose one element out of Air, Earth, Wind or Fire. When you and Proton are both in the game, your element choices will combine to form one effect. Proton's target will get the benefit of any positive effect, while your target will suffer any negative effect. You may not choose the same pair of elements until each pair has been selected. If Proton dies before you, you may not select the same element on consecutive nights. You may not select the same target on consecutive nights. You will not be informed of the effects of your elements.

perhaps???

[Sloonei]

I'll ask this again: what evidence is there that the Evens kill on even nights and strex on odd?

[sprityo]

i mean it'd be weird. it'd be a small stretch. but i think its a possibility

[sprityo]

I'll ask this again: what evidence is there that the Evens kill on even nights and strex on odd?

none, aside from trying to plug in the choices of what the teams would want to kill

[Scotty]

sprityo claimed that he had a cool role early on and it seemed a little jarring? i didn't really understand the benefit of making such a claim, he also seems to have had more of a thread presence back then. did he die? he's on a watch lost for the remainder of my excursion

youre right ive lost some of my bravado and vigor from the early game

are you doing okay? are you alright

in any case im trying my best to be engaged where i can


Here's something i want to bring back up in recent light: we know LC was aware of Cerberus tribe. hence how we caught him slipping. So who from the cerberus tribe would fit the profile an evil even?

Well we kinda already thought there were mafia on both teams on Bidoof 1.0 assuming that kills can only target the current tribe.

The prevailing thought was that it was Wilgy.

But I think it could be nijuu

[Spacedaisy]

I just think it would be odd and counter intuitive to give the Evil Evens the kill on the odd nights.

[Spacedaisy]

Here are the kills I can see on even nights:

N2 - Scotty
N4 - None
N6 - SVS
N8 - Sprityo
N10 - None

If there was a team that might have an inactive, this might be a good one to consider. But I am thinking perhaps there is someone who messed with their kill somehow. Either a block or a protect or something perhaps?

[Quin]

It's Day 11. Most Mafia games are winding down or have ended by this point.

No opinion right now on Epi, DDL, Quin & cbob.

I do not understand how one could have no opinion on four people at this stage.

They are all Pikachus, and her rl took off around the time the tribes merged would be my guess.

This, entirely this. I have struggled to understand most pikachu people because I don't have the mental energy to read what happened here while I was over in Cerberus.

Day 11 has ended. DrWilgy has been lynched. He was:

66: Dhalsim (Street Fighter II). Once in the game, you may teleport during the night phase, randomising all player targets for that night. You are MAFIA and a member of STREXCORP.

[/color]

FUCK YEAH! I KNEW IT BITCHES!

Fuckin' merked 'em lads

Take that Mr. "I stopped reading at meta"

Same to you INH for calling my case BS and hollow and judgmental.

Let me be perfectly clear here. I have the highest respect for Wilgy as a player both civ and bad. My point was not that he doesn't contribute as a civ. It was that he did it in a lot more jokey, schticky way that people often would just disregard as just crazy Wilgy. Which frankly is unfortunate because a I previously mentioned, civ Wilgy has an eye for finding baddies. But bad Wilgy tries to be understandable at least so that he looks civ I assume. His contributions in both are good. I think Wilgy is the coolest cat and I know he has an incredible win rate. So if you feel like I was saying anything disrespectful about Wilgy, that is not the case. Also, I will never again trust this meta because once it's out there it becomes irrelevant.

Finally, I am super pumped by that result. I was terrified I would be wrong.

dONT YELL AT ME

[Quin]

Now that we're over the Wilgy thing I want everyone to tell me why we didn't lynch DDL today. Preferably after reading my case.

[Quin]

ddl calls out both LC and nutella early on when they weren't necessarily being targeted by any significant scrutiny yet. at fist glance i'd say this makes him slightly less likely to be a member of the evil evens

going hard against my...entire team was pretty much the first thing i did in fire emblem

#refuted

[Kylemii]

ddl calls out both LC and nutella early on when they weren't necessarily being targeted by any significant scrutiny yet. at fist glance i'd say this makes him slightly less likely to be a member of the evil evens

going hard against my...entire team was pretty much the first thing i did in fire emblem

#refuted

valid point

[Scotty]

Here are the kills I can see on even nights:

N2 - Scotty
N4 - None
N6 - SVS
N8 - Sprityo
N10 - None

If there was a team that might have an inactive, this might be a good one to consider. But I am thinking perhaps there is someone who messed with their kill somehow. Either a block or a protect or something perhaps?

I hypothesized that Marmot blocked all actions on N4. N10, Wilgy could have used his power swap Madness one-shot and who the hell can predict what all transpired there

[Spacedaisy]

I suppose the Marmot thing is possible, but what do you make of the part about anyone venturing out into the blizzard? I take it to mean anyone out there using their ability on that Night will have a chance of dying, and if this is true what impact does it have on your theory?

[S~V~S]

I find it amusing that the two people I most felt bad from Cerberus at the merge are both pushing me now as bad for vague reasons.

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] I want to lynch baddies. If they are also low posters fine. But I don't want to lynch low posters because they are low posters.

[S~V~S]

ddl calls out both LC and nutella early on when they weren't necessarily being targeted by any significant scrutiny yet. at fist glance i'd say this makes him slightly less likely to be a member of the evil evens

going hard against my...entire team was pretty much the first thing i did in fire emblem

#refuted

valid point

Distancing 101. He also tangent voted for anyone but LC on LCs second lynch. BUT two teams of four would be required for him to be An even, since at least one Even had to be at Cerberus since all the kills till me on night six were at Cerberus. And two teams of four baddies plus possible indies seems a bit much when I think about it.

So for that reason I am not sure. If we think teams of three, then DDL drops down my list cause some of the reasons I suspect him are LC related and the third has to be on Cerberus. If four, then

[Spacedaisy]

btw SVS, I don't think it was you that confused me. Well I mean you did, but I think it was because I still don;'t understand why there is such confidence regarding speedchuck being the one Nutella used her power on. How did we come to this?

[S~V~S]

btw SVS, I don't think it was you that confused me. Well I mean you did, but I think it was because I still don;'t understand why there is such confidence regarding speedchuck being the one Nutella used her power on. How did we come to this?

Everyone thought that becasue a role was revealed for him in Pikachu. Host just dropped a post, "Speedchuck is: This civvie role". Then a couple of days later, Nutella was killed and revealed as a baddie role that faux reveals peoples roles in the thread as the opposite of what they really are. SO, we have a role reveal, and a role revealer, Occams = this revealer revealed that role was the reasoning there.

I am not a huge fan of jumping to conclusions in a set up as complex as this is, with the closed set up, tribal mechanics and dual roles.

[Spacedaisy]

Ok, I think I misunderstood how her role worked. I guess I thought that would be a role reveal in the flip. But I don't know why I thought that. It just would seem self defeating to make a role whose power could so blatantly obvious. Seems self defeating. Not that it matters, speedchuck is lynched now. I just wish I had understood this earlier. Thanks SVS.

[S~V~S]

For those of you pushing for Boomslang’s angle of strex affiliation and therefore killing Nijuu on N1, here’s a quote on Day 3:
Marmot wrote: ↑ Boomslang, who're you voting for today?

Why do you require a read on yourself from nijuu?

Still not 100% sure, but I could get behind a Wilgy vote. Based on posting patterns, I'm guessing either that he's bluffing or that Scotty/Blooper got a silence as their second role. I already didn't like his comment about killing himself before Bloops, and his response to my analysis of JoH was weird. He said I'd thought about Jack more than he had, then never responded why he thought Jack was good himself.

Therefore, I think a WIlgy lynch would give us good information. Imo, there's a not insignficant chance that he's bad, and if he's not, then I think we get valuable intel about Scotty/Blooper's targeting thoughts

Does that seem like someone that is paired with Wilgy? He did a continuation vote on Wilgy Day 4 as well.

Now for Bidoof’s day 5 lynch...

Funnily enough, looking at Day 5 (the LC lynch), Wilgy, Marmot (and Daisy) are the only people not voting for sig. Wilgy and Marmot didn’t even realize they were allowing another mafia team to get lynched.

In many ways, this is the most glaring case against sig, but that is ONLY if strex could see the vote totals on LC. Wilgy cast the last vote, 10 min before the EoD, and chose not to vote for sig. for no good reason.

If Wilgy told his team right off the bat that he wanted replacement combined with two roles might be cred distancing. From what I recall there was some aggressive pursuit of Wilgy in Cerberus, they might have expected him to be lynched first. With a player who is known to have asked to replace, I don't think much can be gleaned from who did and didn't vote for him, at least in later phases, especially with the two role mechanic. But Day One, yeah.

Do we think there were any Strex in Pikachu? I think there must have been, but I know there was some talk in Cerberus about true randomization and how there might not have been. Because I think Slooneis point about figuring out how many Mafia we think were on each team is important, AND if we think there could have been recruits? Becasue we are all doing alot of associative finger pointing here, and not sure how useful that would be if there are only three baddies per team. We may have a third Even, for instance, who did not interact in thread with LC or Nutella at all if they were in Cerberus.

Linki, [mention]Spacedaisy[/mention], well it DID get a civ, as most think, lynched.

[S~V~S]

ebwop, that's why I felt there had to be a counter role, or that role would be pretty pointless. The point of it would be to subvert a true reveal, which is in fact what it did.

[Quin]

ddl calls out both LC and nutella early on when they weren't necessarily being targeted by any significant scrutiny yet. at fist glance i'd say this makes him slightly less likely to be a member of the evil evens

going hard against my...entire team was pretty much the first thing i did in fire emblem

#refuted

valid point

Distancing 101. He also tangent voted for anyone but LC on LCs second lynch. BUT two teams of four would be required for him to be An even, since at least one Even had to be at Cerberus since all the kills till me on night six were at Cerberus. And two teams of four baddies plus possible indies seems a bit much when I think about it.

So for that reason I am not sure. If we think teams of three, then DDL drops down my list cause some of the reasons I suspect him are LC related and the third has to be on Cerberus. If four, then

Keep in mind we each have two lives, and scum on their second life could be town on their first. I don't think 4 to a team is unlikely.

[S~V~S]

So what would you think? Three original and one first death recruit?

I wonder what the mechanism would be? If it was number based, like the first NK your team makes, or choice based, the baddies could find out who other baddies are, because their recruit would fail since I would guess they can't recruit from another team.

So either the baddies have info, or it is a random recruiting mechanism, imo. Would lynched people be excluded from the recruit process, since they would bring baggage?

I think Jack was civ both times. He moved from one life to the next cleanly.

This is something to think about, and what it basically says is no one can be excluded based on thread, because the person you just tried to lynch could be your new partner.

Anyone have any thoughts on anyone who change suspicions? Maybe came back from the Pet Semetary?