Ancient Greece Mafia [CONQUEST]

[Marmot]

Hey Turnip Head, more mafia teammates avoid bussing their teammates than they do driving the hardcore bus against their teammate.

I hope you have plans to look elsewhere my dude.

[Turnip Head]

Hey Turnip Head, more mafia teammates avoid bussing their teammates than they do driving the hardcore bus against their teammate.

I hope you have plans to look elsewhere my dude.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I wouldn’t even respond to this nonsense if I could see the votes.

ISO Speed. ISO me. Look at my history as a great dancer who doesn’t need to bus to avoid suspicion. Look at my history of avoiding my teammates all game when I’m bad instead of bussing or harping on them. Hell, go look at Pirates to see exactly how Speed and I treat each other as w/w. This is waaaaaaaay different.

[Marmot]

There's also two scum left, so if Jack is bad, he does have a living teammate. Maybe a living Indymate :O

[dunya]

When have I ever bussed a teammate who was not under suspicion? @colonialbob you ever seen me do that?

ok, I'll bite. You don't usually do that as a baddie. I believe you. but...my worry comes from this place: have you ever been in a game with a teammate who was better dead than alive at some point in the game?

[dunya]

When have I ever bussed a teammate who was not under suspicion? @colonialbob you ever seen me do that?

ok, I'll bite. You don't usually do that as a baddie. I believe you. but...my worry comes from this place: have you ever been in a game with a teammate who was better dead than alive at some point in the game?

that wasn't my question sorry. That was rhetorical because I believe you haven't.

but the question is: wouldn't scum Jack buss scum speed if his role after death almost guarantees them to move to LyLo?

[Jackofhearts2005]

[mention]Marmot[/mention]
Tell me about Scotty, Bob, Dunya and Wolbre.

I have no idea where you stand on anybody but Nova.

[dunya]

I just want to explain where I'm coming from.

Is it tinfoil? maybe. should I just call you supertown Jack without addressing my concerns? I don't feel like I can comfortably do that.

anyway, I've said enough about Jack. I'm moving on to Scotty.

[dunya]

@Marmot
Tell me about Scotty, Bob, Dunya and Wolbre.

I have no idea where you stand on anybody but Nova.

he thinks you're good and scotty is bad.

[dunya]

people should read more Marmot. he's quite entertaining.

[Turnip Head]

I mean it's not really tinfoil if a bunch of people can see it. It's more like... ironfoil.

[Kylemii]

Yesterday Review.

Kyle seems pretty passive/noncommittal starting here.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 63#p438763

Posts just “huh” a couple times and this vote is uninspired.

i wanna see what happens if i [vore]speedchuck[/vore]

Possible 3P hinting to the mafia “don’t kill me”

basically all of that listed was in response to my assumption that you had information of some kind, based on the escalation of your suspicion. It seemed that you were hinting at having a red card on Speedchuck and his posts didn't contradict the idea of a mafia speedchuck so I placed an early vote on him so i could see how things would progress, and who would react

[Jackofhearts2005]

When have I ever bussed a teammate who was not under suspicion? @colonialbob you ever seen me do that?

ok, I'll bite. You don't usually do that as a baddie. I believe you. but...my worry comes from this place: have you ever been in a game with a teammate who was better dead than alive at some point in the game?

No such thing.

I’ve been in games with bomb teammates and similar before. I’ve been in games with inactive teammates before. Still better off with one more suspect and potentially one more vote.

[Marmot]

@Marmot
Tell me about Scotty, Bob, Dunya and Wolbre.

I have no idea where you stand on anybody but Nova.

I've wanted to lynch as early as Night 2 or Night 3, (can't remember which).

I thought bob was town for awhile, but his recent quietness has shifted my read to neutral/needs a look.

Dunya has shifted from suspect to neutral, due to her recent contributions. My gut tells me she might be bad still, but my brain says she's exuding effort.

I don't want to lynch wolbre.

[Marmot]

EBWOP: First line should have Scotty written in it.

[Jackofhearts2005]

When have I ever bussed a teammate who was not under suspicion? @colonialbob you ever seen me do that?

ok, I'll bite. You don't usually do that as a baddie. I believe you. but...my worry comes from this place: have you ever been in a game with a teammate who was better dead than alive at some point in the game?

that wasn't my question sorry. That was rhetorical because I believe you haven't.

but the question is: wouldn't scum Jack buss scum speed if his role after death almost guarantees them to move to LyLo?

We’re not at lylo if we miss lynching scum today.

Two 3P players were unaffiliated. Due to the Speedchuck lynch, one seems to have joined the town. Surprised both didn’t.

Even if we mislynch today how is that better for the mafia than mislynch img yesterday? The mafia may have settled for Speedchuck getting lynched at they may take advantage of his ability that triggers on lynch but one more vote is better than that.

[Marmot]

One vote from Day 1 in particular I didn't like was Scotty's.

He voted 41 hours before the deadline and didn't budge. Here's why I didn't like it. Scotty was around and active all day long, talking with other players, about other players, etc. Yet he left his vote on Epignosis. I've done something like this before. In Mortal Kombat, I was mafia tossed a vote on dunya, and despite some solid genuine effort from her, I left it there in the hopes she'd be lynched. She was. This is what Scotty's vote looks like to me. He had the opportunity to get a strong town player mislynched early, and parked his vote there.

This was the first thing from Scotty that jumped out to me.

[dunya]

When have I ever bussed a teammate who was not under suspicion? @colonialbob you ever seen me do that?

ok, I'll bite. You don't usually do that as a baddie. I believe you. but...my worry comes from this place: have you ever been in a game with a teammate who was better dead than alive at some point in the game?

No such thing.

I’ve been in games with bomb teammates and similar before. I’ve been in games with inactive teammates before. Still better off with one more suspect and potentially one more vote.

fair enough.

[Jackofhearts2005]

@Marmot
Tell me about Scotty, Bob, Dunya and Wolbre.

I have no idea where you stand on anybody but Nova.

I've wanted to lynch as early as Night 2 or Night 3, (can't remember which).

I thought bob was town for awhile, but his recent quietness has shifted my read to neutral/needs a look.

Dunya has shifted from suspect to neutral, due to her recent contributions. My gut tells me she might be bad still, but my brain says she's exuding effort.

I don't want to lynch wolbre.

Thanks.

[colonialbob]

My vote for speedchuck along with my reading him and encouraging SD to give an opinion on him, which resulted in her making a case on him was 90% based on my assumption that Jack has used an info role on Speedchuck during night 4

did you see the link Scotty compiled? why would Jack wait till night 4 to use any info role on speed is the question, considering he's called for speed's lynch and scumminess practically from day 1. who else has Jack done that with? who else has Jack actively hounded up until Day 5? and coincidentally, day 5 is the day he gets heat. seems convenient? I just don't like to assume everything is a coincidence.

When have I ever bussed a teammate who was not under suspicion? @colonialbob you ever seen me do that?

The pressure you talk about was one vote from Scotty. TH’s vote doesn’t count for obvious reasons.

This. Is. Tinfoil.

Cut it out.

No.

Jack seems to subscribe (as do I) to simple math - more mafia = better. He'll jump on a teammate who gets caught, for sure, but actively bussing? Nope. And sure, speed talked about burnout, but a) he was still fighting up to the end, and b) WHY ARE WE FOCUSING SO MUCH ON WHAT HE SAID AFTER HE BECAME THE LIKELY LYNCH

[Marmot]

Simple math - more mafia = usually a negative number, how is that better? :\

[colonialbob]

Simple math - more mafia = usually a negative number, how is that better? :\

Simple math: more mafia = better (as a mafioso)

Each mafia member lost is two civs you need to kill for parity

3 mafia: win with 6 players remaining
2 mafia: win with 4 players remaining

(I'm assuming 3p don't count for mafia parity, since they don't know their identities)

[Turnip Head]

you're explaining checkers to a chess club

[dunya]

8 town
2 scum
3 hellinic

let's say 1 3p for each faction

9 town
3 scum
1 hellinic

after 1 mislynch and nightkill

7town, 3 scum and 1 hellinic who would probably favor scum chances at this point

7town vs 4 scum

[dunya]

(I'm assuming 3p don't count for mafia parity, since they don't know their identities)

hmmmmm how sure are we of that?

[dunya]

"After doing so, his or her win condition will align directly with that faction’s. Any member aligning with the Persians will not be told their identities or added to their BTSC, but they will win or lose alongside them."

[Jackofhearts2005]

8 town
2 scum
3 hellinic

let's say 1 3p for each faction

9 town
3 scum
1 hellinic

after 1 mislynch and nightkill

7town, 3 scum and 1 hellinic who would probably favor scum chances at this point

7town vs 4 scum

You’re assuming a 3Ps want to join the mafia when it’s 8 vs 2 and we have good leads.

You’re counting scum aligned 3Ps as full scum when they don’t even know their teammates and also might get shot by the mafia.

And even if it was 7 vs 4, that’s not lylo without additional game mechanics that might be blocked, traded away, misdirected or burned on 3Ps.

[colonialbob]

(I'm assuming 3p don't count for mafia parity, since they don't know their identities)

hmmmmm how sure are we of that?

We're not, that's why it's an assumption

But it's the way I'd rule it, since parity is essentially just "speeding up the game once civs can't win," and 3p who doesn't know the mafia team could still vote for them.

The point's not really important in the analysis though

[dunya]

no, i said the 3p would join mafia when its 7 vs 3.

i see no reason why the 3ps aren't counted in the factions they claimed alliance to. it wouldn't make sense to me otherwise tbh.

why do you think the last 3p hasn't chosen yet, Jack? on day 6.

edit: linki. in response to jack.

[dunya]

last 3p is in this to win. I garner he/she is someone who isn't under any suspicion and wants to see how the next day/night pan out and choose to align with the team with the better odds of winning this.

if I was 3p, I'd do exactly that. 3ps should be selfish and think about better odds. I'm surprised the first one chose so early on, unless it's someone who likes to be town over scum or scum over town specifically.

[dunya]

my point is, whether we are 1 day from lylo or 2, we should really vote for the person we think is scum and only scum. not scum or 3p. not scummish. someone we can have in deep red on your rainbow lists and someone who is relevant in the discussions as Jack pointed out earlier. I mean, vote for your convictions but also don't do what you think will be lone wolf votes this phase. we have the numbers on our side still if we can unify.

[Scotty]

my point is, whether we are 1 day from lylo or 2, we should really vote for the person we think is scum and only scum. not scum or 3p. not scummish. someone we can have in deep red on your rainbow lists and someone who is relevant in the discussions as Jack pointed out earlier. I mean, vote for your convictions but also don't do what you think will be lone wolf votes this phase. we have the numbers on our side still if we can unify.

Agreed

[Spacedaisy]

holy shit jack, I came on TS to find I had 5 notifications from this game alone thanks to you!

When is the day over?

[dunya]

holy shit jack, I came on TS to find I had 5 notifications from this game alone thanks to you!

When is the day over?

tomorrow at around 1am my time.

[dunya]

actually 12.26. so i assume 5.26pm your time.

[dunya]

remember: votes aren't changeable this round. we have more than 24hrs to go. don't rush anything.

[Spacedaisy]

I'm not rushng

[Jackofhearts2005]

no, i said the 3p would join mafia when its 7 vs 3.

i see no reason why the 3ps aren't counted in the factions they claimed alliance to. it wouldn't make sense to me otherwise tbh.

why do you think the last 3p hasn't chosen yet, Jack? on day 6.

edit: linki. in response to jack.

This assumes no mechanic in SECRETS to offset the idea of 3 BTSCing indies turning a 4 player mafia into a 7 player mafia. I don’t think they can all side with the mafia or else their votes stop counting or the my don’t count towards mafia majority or something.

You’re also assuming the first 3P went scum just after Colin was lynched, which is a bad assumption.

I think the last 3P’s trade fell through and they’ll soon side with the town.

[Jackofhearts2005]

holy shit jack, I came on TS to find I had 5 notifications from this game alone thanks to you!

When is the day over?

I’m supatown.

Only townies post this much.

[dunya]

jay states that the 3ps cant reveal which faction they've chosen. i'm assuming that also means hinting otherwise why state that rule.

[dunya]

You’re also assuming the first 3P went scum just after Colin was lynched, which is a bad assumption.

or the second. or maybe the first felt sorry for scum.

why are you so certain both chose town? that's a best case scenario. when we do situation analysis and predictions, we always account for worse and worst case scenarios too.

[dunya]

I think the last 3P’s trade fell through and they’ll soon side with the town.

explain?

[dunya]

holy shit jack, I came on TS to find I had 5 notifications from this game alone thanks to you!

When is the day over?

I’m supatown.

Only townies post this much.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Ftr, I’d rule it like Bob but there may be mechanics I’m not aware of.

[dunya]

man, i don't even wanna argue about the 3ps. i'm doing what i'm preaching we shouldn't do. I just wanted to illustrate a worst case scenario and that this lynch is important and the Persians think they've got us here, but I think we can team up against them.

[Scotty]

holy shit jack, I came on TS to find I had 5 notifications from this game alone thanks to you!

When is the day over?

I’m supatown.

Only townies post this much.

Oh wow! Well by your logic, I must certainly be town only 8 posts behind you

[Jackofhearts2005]

I think the last 3P’s trade fell through and they’ll soon side with the town.

explain?

Per the role list.

The Diplomatic Representative of Corinth may offer to Themistocles the Oracle of Apollo stone (1-shot alignment check) in exchange for one of the Athenian tracker shots owned by Ground Commander. This offer will be entirely anonymous; neither player will know the identity of the other. If Themistocles accepts this offer, then the exchange will be finalized during the phase following that agreement. Themistocles will then give the item to an Athenian role of his choice, not including himself, and not knowing which player occupies that role. Likewise, leaders of the three factions are permitted to make offers to representatives of the Hellenic League which can be accepted or rejected as those representatives desire. Faction leaders may only send one response per phase. It may feature an acceptance, rejection, or counter-offer. If an offer is made for an ability which has already been expended, only the faction leader will be informed of this so that a counter-offer may be possible.

[Jackofhearts2005]

You’re also assuming the first 3P went scum just after Colin was lynched, which is a bad assumption.

or the second. or maybe the first felt sorry for scum.

why are you so certain both chose town? that's a best case scenario. when we do situation analysis and predictions, we always account for worse and worst case scenarios too.

Cause both switched immidiately after town high points. If I had to pick a side after a mafia lynch, I’d pick town.

But idk. Maybe they’re not all 3 even allowed to pick town.

[Quin]

no, i said the 3p would join mafia when its 7 vs 3.

i see no reason why the 3ps aren't counted in the factions they claimed alliance to. it wouldn't make sense to me otherwise tbh.

why do you think the last 3p hasn't chosen yet, Jack? on day 6.

edit: linki. in response to jack.

This assumes no mechanic in SECRETS to offset the idea of 3 BTSCing indies turning a 4 player mafia into a 7 player mafia. I don’t think they can all side with the mafia or else their votes stop counting or the my don’t count towards mafia majority or something.

You’re also assuming the first 3P went scum just after Colin was lynched, which is a bad assumption.

I think the last 3P’s trade fell through and they’ll soon side with the town.

I agree. If I were indy I'd want to get my trades over and done with so I could get actually get a win condition. 3P don't seem to have one otherwise. So I don't think they're just sitting on it.

[colonialbob]

Doing ISOs on a phone suuuuucks.

Incoming part 1 of my deep dive into scotland