[ENDGAME] The Shawshank Redemption Mafia

#501

Elohcin wrote:I'm not sure enough about anyone right now.

I take that back. I was busy when I posted before and wasn't thinking straight. *votes BWT*

#502

Elohcin wrote:
Elohcin wrote:I'm not sure enough about anyone right now.
I take that back. I was busy when I posted before and wasn't thinking straight. *votes BWT*

Why do you think BWT is civvie?

I don't disagree, just curious.

#503

Elohcin wrote:
Elohcin wrote:I'm not sure enough about anyone right now.
I take that back. I was busy when I posted before and wasn't thinking straight. *votes BWT*

Well thanks! But is there a reason you feel I'm civvie?

@MP regarding Nev: Not sure yet. Don't have a very good read on him yet. Will go back and check though.

#504

Nevinera wrote: I'm kind of hoping for a bit of analysis out of llama, who I'm feeling most confident of so far,
to save me having to reread the thread in my copious free time :-)

Here's my analysis: Mongoose is bad. Lynch her.

#505

S~V~S wrote:The way it is worded, it seems that perhaps the winner will be taken off the poll. Since it's night, it isn't a lynch.

Precisely! That is why I picked A Person. Anyone want to join me?

#506

Although I see that Llama already has 2 votes. If the current pulse is leaning that way, I don't mind changing my vote to throw in with that lot.

#507

birdwithteeth11 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
Elohcin wrote:I'm not sure enough about anyone right now.
I take that back. I was busy when I posted before and wasn't thinking straight. *votes BWT*
Well thanks! But is there a reason you feel I'm civvie?

@MP regarding Nev: Not sure yet. Don't have a very good read on him yet. Will go back and check though.

I know I voted you on Day 1, but since then my mind has been changed about you.

#508

Actually, on some reread, i think i also feel pretty good about BWT

#509

Elohcin wrote:
birdwithteeth11 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
Elohcin wrote:I'm not sure enough about anyone right now.
I take that back. I was busy when I posted before and wasn't thinking straight. *votes BWT*
Well thanks! But is there a reason you feel I'm civvie?

@MP regarding Nev: Not sure yet. Don't have a very good read on him yet. Will go back and check though.
I know I voted you on Day 1, but since then my mind has been changed about you.

Was it something I did or a gut feeling?

Linki: Thanks SVS! I'm kind of curious where this is all coming from though.

#510

MovingPictures07 wrote: Does anyone else think Nev might be bad? I'm hesitant, BUT, I think it's really weird the way he suspected MR really early on, then slowly backed away from the suspicion, finally to arrive at this post above.

I know he's busy, but it seems convenient. Maybe I'm way off, but I want to hear what others think too.

I've posted like.. Four times. I'm not sure how I could have 'slowly' backed away from anything.

I suspected MR for weak reasons that others agreed with, and then changed my mind after reading his reactions that day.
They didn't feel fake to me. I think I've been fairly clear about the few points I've made.

#511

You know how you read some players always as civ? And some you can never read? I always read Nev as bad. Maybe I'm still smarting from Thomas the Tank.

In other words, I'm not the one to ask

#512

Mongoose wrote:Although I see that Llama already has 2 votes. If the current pulse is leaning that way, I don't mind changing my vote to throw in with that lot.

You will never win me over with votes and kindness, Badgoose. I am immune to kindness.

#513

birdwithteeth11 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
birdwithteeth11 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
Elohcin wrote:I'm not sure enough about anyone right now.
I take that back. I was busy when I posted before and wasn't thinking straight. *votes BWT*
Well thanks! But is there a reason you feel I'm civvie?

@MP regarding Nev: Not sure yet. Don't have a very good read on him yet. Will go back and check though.
I know I voted you on Day 1, but since then my mind has been changed about you.
Was it something I did or a gut feeling?

Linki: Thanks SVS! I'm kind of curious where this is all coming from though.

i can't speak for anyone else, but i think i read you fairly well, and you look pretty civ to me.

#514

S~V~S wrote: i can't speak for anyone else, but i think i read you fairly well, and you look pretty civ to me.

Works for me then!

#515

thellama73 wrote:
Mongoose wrote:Although I see that Llama already has 2 votes. If the current pulse is leaning that way, I don't mind changing my vote to throw in with that lot.
You will never win me over with votes and kindness, Badgoose. I am immune to kindness.

Listen, Grinch. I'm not trying to win you over. I can tell I'd be wasting my breath at this point. I'm trying to make sure you have stuff to help you in the game since I think you are civ and that;s more important than you being on my butt all game.

#516

birdwithteeth11 wrote:
S~V~S wrote: i can't speak for anyone else, but i think i read you fairly well, and you look pretty civ to me.
Works for me then!

I agree, you don't seems to possess any baddie behavior

#517

I'm a little weirded out by the buddywagon to BWT. I mean, it could all be legit, but even if it is, talk about painting a target on someone's back!

Nevinera wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote: Does anyone else think Nev might be bad? I'm hesitant, BUT, I think it's really weird the way he suspected MR really early on, then slowly backed away from the suspicion, finally to arrive at this post above.

I know he's busy, but it seems convenient. Maybe I'm way off, but I want to hear what others think too.
I've posted like.. Four times. I'm not sure how I could have 'slowly' backed away from anything.

I suspected MR for weak reasons that others agreed with, and then changed my mind after reading his reactions that day.
They didn't feel fake to me. I think I've been fairly clear about the few points I've made.

You suspected them, then started doubting it, then came off it completely.

I understand; it could be genuine. Just thought otherwise.

Well, do you have any thoughts as to anything else going on? Your insight is always very intriguing, regardless of alignment.

#518

Well this poll seems to be about who you trust, which invites the naming of those you think are civ.

#519

S~V~S wrote:Well this poll seems to be about who you trust, which invites the naming of those you think are civ.

True, I understand that. I just find it interesting Elo has had a complete 360, then you come in chiming you think he is civvie too, and yet he's missed both votes so far.

Again, not necessarily disagreeing, but it strikes me as noteworthy -- take that as you will.

#520

What I don't understand though... and maybe you can help me get it, S~V~S. Why would anyone NOT vote for llama? He has survived an NK and he seems pretty civvie llama to me regardless. Seems like a no brainer.

#521

MovingPictures07 wrote:I just find it interesting Elo has had a complete 360

And you are going for a Ph.D in a mathematical field.

#522

While the team baddies do not have secrets the SK does. So surviving a kill is not proof positive.

It is just a gut thing.

#523

Also, doing a 360 puts you back where you were, total circle. A 180 is diametrically opposed.

#524

Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I just find it interesting Elo has had a complete 360
And you are going for a Ph.D in a mathematical field.

Real funny, yes, I fucked up. I obviously meant 180.

AND Accounting is not mathematics.

S~V~S wrote:While the team baddies do not have secrets the SK does. So surviving a kill is not proof positive.

It is just a gut thing.

When did I say it was not proof positive?

So you don't think llama is civvie? Or do you think BWT is seeming more civvie than llama with his no votes?

#525

I do not read llama well. I do read BWT well. Llama well could be a super awesome nice civ guy. But discerning that is not my forte.

#526

S~V~S wrote:I do not read llama well. I do read BWT well. Llama well could be a super awesome nice civ guy. But discerning that is not my forte.

Hmm, makes sense enough. Thanks for explaining!

#527

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I just find it interesting Elo has had a complete 360
And you are going for a Ph.D in a mathematical field.
Real funny, yes, I fucked up. I obviously meant 180.

AND Accounting is not mathematics.

Yeah, most accountants just use words like "some," "a lot," and "not enough." Numbers are too hard.

Here's my impression of Alex advising a small business:
"You have to fire some employees because you're making not enough money to stay in business, and that sucks a lot."

#528

My Dad is a CPA and he describes himself as a "creative mathematician"

You remind me of him in some ways, MP

#529

thellama73 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I just find it interesting Elo has had a complete 360
And you are going for a Ph.D in a mathematical field.
Real funny, yes, I fucked up. I obviously meant 180.

AND Accounting is not mathematics.
Yeah, most accountants just use words like "some," "a lot," and "not enough." Numbers are too hard.

Here's my impression of Alex advising a small business:
"You have to fire some employees because you're making not enough money to stay in business, and that sucks a lot."

I think that might be the best impression I've ever seen. Well done fine sir!

In response to MP about Nev, I can see where you're coming from. I think it's something worth considering the following day.

#530

S~V~S wrote:My Dad is a CPA and he describes himself as a "creative mathematician"

You remind me of him in some ways, MP

A CPA who describes himself as a "creative mathematician" sounds like he works for the mob.

#531

I randomized and got Dom.

#532

Epignosis wrote:
S~V~S wrote:My Dad is a CPA and he describes himself as a "creative mathematician"

You remind me of him in some ways, MP
A CPA who describes himself as a "creative mathematician" sounds like he works for the mob.

OT, well he is Italian and looks kinda like pacino, and def has his inability to regulate volume, so

#533

Could you imagine if parol was really decided by the inmates?

#534

Devin the Omniscient wrote:You're bugging out Goosey. Boomslang quoted BWT in WWE about WWE. There is no quote from the other game.

Yeah, you're losin' it girl!

#535

I feel really shitty for missing the vote. I spent the whole day traveling and packing.

I don't know who I would've voted for tbh.

#536

I forgive nobody and apologize for nothing.

#537

MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm a little weirded out by the buddywagon to BWT. I mean, it could all be legit, but even if it is, talk about painting a target on someone's back!

This! What I found weird is 3 minutes (I checked) after Elo said she changed her mind about not knowing who to vote for and voted for BWT, SVS said that on second read, she thinks BWT looks more like a civ.
It looks like maybe SVS decided Elo might know that BWT is a civ and therefore there's no point in going after him, therefore said that he seemed civ to her too. I mean where did it come from? Where was the first read? Did she look at BWT's posts because of Elo's vote? Because if so, it took her only 3 minutes to read through and decide he looked civ. Didn't like that post at all.

Now a question: Do you all think the winner of the poll will be taken out of the lynch poll tomorrow? Because if that's the case, what's the point in taking out of the poll the person most people think is a civ, therefore won't be voting him anyway? Wouldn't it be better to ask who everyone thinks is a civ, and then not vote for that person and go with yourself or something? Or someone else you think is a civ but others are less sure of?
If it can save a person from being targeted at night, that's a whole other story.

The problem I'm having is, if we all say who we most think is a civ, aren't we putting a target on his back for tonight? maybe he won't survive the night to be taken out of the poll next day. So I really hope the person we vote for, will be immune to night actions or something.

I don't know if it's me, but I'm not getting any of the logic here. If people can explain, I'd appreciate it

#538

Well, the poll implies someone will get a reward. I would prefer it be a civ. Now I do not have any info, but after seeing what Elo said, I went back and took a good look at BWT. I think I read him pretty well. I think he could be a civ. So I would prefer to reward him rather than someone else. Saying who you feel good about and could potentially trust is as much a part of mafia as saying who you suspect.

And for all the baddies know, with 2 mafias, me, Elo, & BWT could be bad teammates making a particularly ballsy move. I have been known to do so

So saying I trust a particular person in a poll structured this way will not put a target on them anymore than Llama is having a target painted with the votes he has.

#539

Also re the three minutes, pick a person at random, click the "in topic" under their name, and see if you can quickly read over their posts in 3 minutes. Considering that I consider myself a fairly good assessor of BWT, a quick read was all I needed.

#540

MovingPictures07 wrote: You suspected them, then started doubting it, then came off it completely.
I understand; it could be genuine. Just thought otherwise.

Well, do you have any thoughts as to anything else going on? Your insight is always very intriguing, regardless of alignment.

I have to admit, I've only been skimming the thread.

I think the failed kill on llama is very telling though -
First, I don't see any roles that would be kill-immune or defender roles visible, so it must be a secret role.
(My guess is the DA, and that he gets to protect someone and picked llama).

I've generally noticed a tendency to try to off somebody that is in the middle -
not pointing straight at you, but saying things that you would prefer not be said,
or prompting significant discussion when you'd rather things stayed quiet.
I think that in this case the latter is more likely; llama has always been a wonderful conversation starter.

I also think I recognize his flailing-around as civ-llama (though I wont trust it next game, sir!)
He's trying to scrape information out of thin air, and doing it in the least safe but most effective way :-)

Beyond that, and my observations about MR, all I've got is people that are acting confusingly. But a lot of
people appear to do that on purpose any more, probably because it makes their baddie and civvie natures
difficult to tell apart? I'm a little specifically suspicious of j^j^j, but I think that whole stack of people that voted for MR
needs attention. People can say anything, and can lie marvelously well, but there are only a few ways to deceive with your voting and still have an impact on the results.

If anyone else wanted to spend the time tracking down the degree of expectedness for each of those MR votes, I'd be interested in that analysis.
I think some of those votes were intended to be blendy (not necessarily a baddie trait though), and some were opportunistic.

#541

Nevinera wrote: If anyone else wanted to spend the time tracking down the degree of expectedness for each of those MR votes, I'd be interested in that analysis.
I think some of those votes were intended to be blendy (not necessarily a baddie trait though), and some were opportunistic.

Mongoose was the fourth person to vote for MR, after it became pretty clear he was going to be lynched regardless.

I also find her attempts to laugh off my suspicion of her very pingy.

Mongoose wrote:I'm not too concerned. Llama wrongly suspected me in Homestar Runner and slowly saw that he was a gentleman and a scholar but wrong. And I'll think this same thing will happen here since it's the silliest thing since Lohan decided to try "acting."

It's a smart play. If you don't act defensive, people often let it go. It's a play I've employed successfully in the past and so far it is working for her here. I thought the casualness seemed a little forced and calculated though.

#542

Nevinera wrote: If anyone else wanted to spend the time tracking down the degree of expectedness for each of those MR votes, I'd be interested in that analysis.
I think some of those votes were intended to be blendy (not necessarily a baddie trait though), and some were opportunistic.

I was definitely confused by the way the votes flew in for him, I'd sort of expected people to challenge my theory that he'd been saved. Especially the people who would've been his saviours. On the other hand his instant and barely explained vote for me can't have helped him. There are probably some baddies hiding among that bandwagon.

#543

Also, how long are we prepared to tolerate MrThomas' complete absence from the thread? I am starting to lose patience with him, personally.

#544

Also, (sorry for so many posts) I still don't trust boo, as I said back on Day 1, and his late vote for MR doesn't make me feel better about him.

#545

FZ. wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm a little weirded out by the buddywagon to BWT. I mean, it could all be legit, but even if it is, talk about painting a target on someone's back!
This! What I found weird is 3 minutes (I checked) after Elo said she changed her mind about not knowing who to vote for and voted for BWT, SVS said that on second read, she thinks BWT looks more like a civ.
It looks like maybe SVS decided Elo might know that BWT is a civ and therefore there's no point in going after him, therefore said that he seemed civ to her too. I mean where did it come from? Where was the first read? Did she look at BWT's posts because of Elo's vote? Because if so, it took her only 3 minutes to read through and decide he looked civ. Didn't like that post at all.

I know SVS claims to be able to read me fairly well, and I wouldn't deny that either. The bolded part is the main reason the sudden chumminess worries me, because that was similar to my train of thought as well. It felt like SVS was trying to latch onto a potential "BWT is very civvie this game" train. And regardless of what she says, I feel like it does put a slight target on my back. Especially since I haven't been very active yet so far.

thellama73 wrote:
Mongoose wrote:I'm not too concerned. Llama wrongly suspected me in Homestar Runner and slowly saw that he was a gentleman and a scholar but wrong. And I'll think this same thing will happen here since it's the silliest thing since Lohan decided to try "acting."
It's a smart play. If you don't act defensive, people often let it go. It's a play I've employed successfully in the past and so far it is working for her here. I thought the casualness seemed a little forced and calculated though.

Interest in Mongoose has certainly dropped, so I'll give you that at least.

thellama73 wrote:Also, how long are we prepared to tolerate MrThomas' complete absence from the thread? I am starting to lose patience with him, personally.

I'm giving him until the following day to start posting. If he doesn't, I might consider him for a vote then if I don't develop any better suspects.

thellama73 wrote:Also, (sorry for so many posts) I still don't trust boo, as I said back on Day 1, and his late vote for MR doesn't make me feel better about him.

I haven't really felt that way about boo yet. Was it just the late vote or is there another reason?

#546

thellama73 wrote:Also, how long are we prepared to tolerate MrThomas' complete absence from the thread? I am starting to lose patience with him, personally.

I agree but do we really want to be lynching no-shows on day 3 or later? If he's civ that's a day wasted, if he's bad he's not contributing to his team anyway.

#547

Bullzeye wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Also, how long are we prepared to tolerate MrThomas' complete absence from the thread? I am starting to lose patience with him, personally.
I agree but do we really want to be lynching no-shows on day 3 or later? If he's civ that's a day wasted, if he's bad he's not contributing to his team anyway.

If he's bad he could be doing it on purpose and hoping that no one will waste their time lynching him.

#548

thellama73 wrote:Mongoose was the fourth person to vote for MR, after it became pretty clear he was going to be lynched regardless.

This is sort of true. I was the fourth person to vote for him, but I was the second person to really make a case for him (if you scroll up past my vote explanation post, you'll see that this is factual). Just because two people snuck in and voted before I did doesn't mean I should be penalized -- I was already making the case earlier on.

thellama73 wrote: I also find her attempts to laugh off my suspicion of her very pingy.

thellama73 wrote: It's a smart play. If you don't act defensive, people often let it go. It's a play I've employed successfully in the past and so far it is working for her here. I thought the casualness seemed a little forced and calculated though.

If it was any other player other than Llama, I'd probably be defensive. When it's your friend, it's easier not to take it so personal. Does that make sense? Usually I do end up getting defensive (see: any game at Revolution), but tend to face character assassination in stride with logic (see: HSR, SMB). And wherever I play, there's bound to be hyperbole!

Love,
Your Friendly Neighborhood

#549

S~V~S wrote:Well, the poll implies someone will get a reward. I would prefer it be a civ. Now I do not have any info, but after seeing what Elo said, I went back and took a good look at BWT. I think I read him pretty well. I think he could be a civ. So I would prefer to reward him rather than someone else. Saying who you feel good about and could potentially trust is as much a part of mafia as saying who you suspect.

And for all the baddies know, with 2 mafias, me, Elo, & BWT could be bad teammates making a particularly ballsy move. I have been known to do so

So saying I trust a particular person in a poll structured this way will not put a target on them anymore than Llama is having a target painted with the votes he has.

I meant that the target was llama. And I know it's part of the game, but if the vote gets llama for example out of the lynch poll, we basically did nothing, but make it worse for him, because obviously, his problem won't be getting lynched, but dying in other ways.
This is why I don't think it's a lynch thing. It makes no sense. If I were hosting the game, I'd make it something that the person voted for, would actually benefit

I still think there's a chance you were trying to look good when thinking Elo found a civ even if you claim you looked for it for different reasons.

I have to say, that even though llama is one of the people I feel is a civ, it's not impossible that the baddies targeted their own team mate that could survive the first kill, just to make him look like a civ.

#550

A Person wrote:
Bullzeye wrote:
thellama73 wrote:Also, how long are we prepared to tolerate MrThomas' complete absence from the thread? I am starting to lose patience with him, personally.
I agree but do we really want to be lynching no-shows on day 3 or later? If he's civ that's a day wasted, if he's bad he's not contributing to his team anyway.
If he's bad he could be doing it on purpose and hoping that no one will waste their time lynching him.

This sounds so much like something a baddie would say to push for someone's lynch.
If he hasn't posted for reasons that are not related to RL, I'd say he's overwhelmed. And if he's a baddie, it's much more likely that he doesn't know what to say, and not because he thinks we'll forget about him. As scum, it would be much better to just say something and vote someone to get people off your back. Look at how no one is paying attention to Lizzie. She said very little, then voted for herself, then I voted for her, and some people followed. Then, she comes back says that it gives her a reason to vote for one of the three. Does a weird elimination and votes, and then she's gone again. Is anyone even talking about her except me?