Easter Mafia [GAME OVER]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The more Quin doesn't post, the more I'm like, ok maybe it's just Quin. I'm reading his ISO next. I need to take breaks though. I'm truly spending too much time on mafia today.

I find myself wanting to select Scotty over nutella for the backup slot, but she has been as quiet as Quin today (and as confident as he was on Day 4 ), so I'm just like

No she wasn't, she flopped back and forth while Quin held firm.

I meant that at that point, nutella on Day 5 exhibited similar confidence to Quin on Day 4.

[Marmot]

Honestly I cannot imagine that if you were civ you would be so confident about Colin being bad and marmot being good. That's my biggest hangup with you. The rest of us were flailing around considering every angle and even if you had already civ read marmot you should have been reevaluating constantly during day 4 . I just can't see your reactions there as genuine compared to what Jay, Dizzy and I experienced.

It's very simple.

Marmot = good
Colin = x

Both claim the same role, of which there is only one. x = bad. There was no need for panic.

Hope this helps.

You claimed I was civ Day 3 though, when everyone else thought the opposite.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Even if it is Quin, I feel better about the civilian play in this game if we don't allow ourselves to fart around and then lynch him. A backup plan is critical. Besides, I think he is subject to similar time constraints as nutella (with an Australian time zone to boot), so I remain patient.

Who's accusing who of farting around?

Nobody. That wasn't intended to be accusatory.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay why are you self-voting?

It's a placeholder. I have been resisting the itch to just dump my vote on Quin. A huge wagon lead can stifle discussion.

[Marmot]

I don't blame nutella for her confidence, I feel the same way today too tbh.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't blame nutella for her confidence, I feel the same way today too tbh.

Do Quin's most recent posts affect your perspective at all?

[Marmot]

Dunno, still like a hundred posts behind.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm a little concerned that Quin seems to be the only one of the three who has given any remote consideration to a mafia JJJ -- technically I should be in this POE pool. It's been good to avoid that and improve the probability of a hit, but I haven't seen any paranoia about me from Scotty whatsoever, and it's only been a little bit during MP's tirade from nutella.

[nutella]

I honestly cannot decide between quin and scotty and that speaks to their skill as players. No matter which possible world we end up in at this point I will be in absolute awe at how inscrutable they have both managed to be.

You've identified numerous points for each of them which you've judged as highly suspicious in some way or another. What is it about their play that makes them so inscrutable as to inspire awe?

That they've both come across with roughly the same balance of bad looks and good looks, and since it's this hard to decide between them then obviously whichever one is bad has done a pretty good job not looking obviously more bad than the other.

I'm happy to lynch Quin today and see what we get if more of us are leaning toward him over Scotty, but yeah let's make sure we get that good good vote margin.

This doesn't really come out in the ISOs you provided. I see a lot of negative and considerably less positive.

I pointed out some more specific things for the negative parts and use more general descriptions for the positive stuff, but in terms of how I have read them over the course of the game it really balances out in my head.

[nutella]

I'm a little concerned that Quin seems to be the only one of the three who has given any remote consideration to a mafia JJJ -- technically I should be in this POE pool. It's been good to avoid that and improve the probability of a hit, but I haven't seen any paranoia about me from Scotty whatsoever, and it's only been a little bit during MP's tirade from nutella.

I have given it some consideration but I don't think it's likely enough to risk at this point. Your eod4 looks too good especially.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm a little concerned that Quin seems to be the only one of the three who has given any remote consideration to a mafia JJJ -- technically I should be in this POE pool. It's been good to avoid that and improve the probability of a hit, but I haven't seen any paranoia about me from Scotty whatsoever, and it's only been a little bit during MP's tirade from nutella.

I have given it some consideration but I don't think it's likely enough to risk at this point. Your eod4 looks too good especially.

What was your perspective of my three vote switches in the last 5-10 minutes?

[Marmot]

Also, it's not amazing odds, but based on probability from lapluie's peeks, Quin has a 25% chance of being mafia, while nutella, Scotty, Dizzy, and Jimmy all have 20% chance of being mafia. Slightly higher than everyone else's.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This doesn't feel right.

[Quin]

I'm a little concerned that Quin seems to be the only one of the three who has given any remote consideration to a mafia JJJ -- technically I should be in this POE pool. It's been good to avoid that and improve the probability of a hit, but I haven't seen any paranoia about me from Scotty whatsoever, and it's only been a little bit during MP's tirade from nutella.

I have given it some consideration but I don't think it's likely enough to risk at this point. Your eod4 looks too good especially.

This is literally how I handled Sloonei is Mad Max.

[Quin]

"I mean you could be bad but I'm just so sure that it's someone else so I'm not gonna follow through with it at all"

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]Quin[/mention], as quickly as you can, please describe the faith you have in Scotty.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It's going to suck if barely anyone is here at EOD.

[Quin]

Quin, as quickly as you can, please describe the faith you have in Scotty.

I don't. He's just my second choice for the PoE and I want to get it right the first time.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also, it's not amazing odds, but based on probability from lapluie's peeks, Quin has a 25% chance of being mafia, while nutella, Scotty, Dizzy, and Jimmy all have 20% chance of being mafia. Slightly higher than everyone else's.

I think Dizzy is likely to be the last dentist.

[Quin]

I honestly cannot decide between quin and scotty and that speaks to their skill as players. No matter which possible world we end up in at this point I will be in absolute awe at how inscrutable they have both managed to be.

You've identified numerous points for each of them which you've judged as highly suspicious in some way or another. What is it about their play that makes them so inscrutable as to inspire awe?

That they've both come across with roughly the same balance of bad looks and good looks, and since it's this hard to decide between them then obviously whichever one is bad has done a pretty good job not looking obviously more bad than the other.

I'm happy to lynch Quin today and see what we get if more of us are leaning toward him over Scotty, but yeah let's make sure we get that good good vote margin.

What mafia schemes to do this?

[nutella]

I'm a little concerned that Quin seems to be the only one of the three who has given any remote consideration to a mafia JJJ -- technically I should be in this POE pool. It's been good to avoid that and improve the probability of a hit, but I haven't seen any paranoia about me from Scotty whatsoever, and it's only been a little bit during MP's tirade from nutella.

I have given it some consideration but I don't think it's likely enough to risk at this point. Your eod4 looks too good especially.

What was your perspective of my three vote switches in the last 5-10 minutes?

Frantically trying to make the right decision as new content/reasons were being thrown at you very fast

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

[Quin]

It's going to suck if barely anyone is here at EOD.

I FEEL YOU BUDDY

[Quin]

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

[Quin]

[mention]Dyslexicon[/mention] please be here

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Frantically trying to make the right decision as new content/reasons were being thrown at you very fast

"content/reasons" is basically the same thing as "stuff"

No. I don't think you've thought about this at all. I expected to get a bunch of shit for that, and only Quin brought it.

[Quin]

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

If this can't happen make sure you're voting me at the end. It would be 100 times more helpful that I be removed from the PoE than a no lynch winds up happening and we do this all over again except at LYLO.

[Marmot]

Also, it's not amazing odds, but based on probability from lapluie's peeks, Quin has a 25% chance of being mafia, while nutella, Scotty, Dizzy, and Jimmy all have 20% chance of being mafia. Slightly higher than everyone else's.

I think Dizzy is likely to be the last dentist.

orly?

[Quin]

i mean i guess that applies to scotty as well

[Quin]

Also, it's not amazing odds, but based on probability from lapluie's peeks, Quin has a 25% chance of being mafia, while nutella, Scotty, Dizzy, and Jimmy all have 20% chance of being mafia. Slightly higher than everyone else's.

I think Dizzy is likely to be the last dentist.

orly?

ye

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Scotty at least mentioned my vote-switching mess at EOD4, albeit in a passing way.

[Marmot]

I put my tinfoil hat on and read both the Jay/Choutas interactions, as well as the Day 4 EoD with the belief that Jay was bad. I came away with nothing, I just can't see any reason for Jay to be bad.

Sorry, not in the mood to spew out cases and ISOs right now. I'm happy to read and respond live though.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

nutella gives Quin a ton of crap for being so confident on Day 4 in a tense situation.

nutella enters Day 5, what should be another tense situation, with total confidence in a Quin vote.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I put my tinfoil hat on and read both the Jay/Choutas interactions, as well as the Day 4 EoD with the belief that Jay was bad. I came away with nothing, I just can't see any reason for Jay to be bad.

Sorry, not in the mood to spew out cases and ISOs right now. I'm happy to read and respond live though.

You're much more useful judging Quin right now in real time. You're convinced he's mafia, and if that's still the case I need help getting there. If it's not, there's still time.

[nutella]

Guys please don't lynch me. It's not me. I don't know who it is or even why you don't think I'm civ from my attempts to solve the game but I am certain we need to lynch either Quin or Scotty today and the other tomorrow or we could lose. If it's Jay we're fucked but he would deserve it. Don't make a stupid mistake at the last minute.

[nutella]

Frantically trying to make the right decision as new content/reasons were being thrown at you very fast

"content/reasons" is basically the same thing as "stuff"

No. I don't think you've thought about this at all. I expected to get a bunch of shit for that, and only Quin brought it.

What do you mean? What is the point of the stuff comment and yes I have thought about it and think the simplest answer is that you're civ.

[Marmot]

I put my tinfoil hat on and read both the Jay/Choutas interactions, as well as the Day 4 EoD with the belief that Jay was bad. I came away with nothing, I just can't see any reason for Jay to be bad.

Sorry, not in the mood to spew out cases and ISOs right now. I'm happy to read and respond live though.

You're much more useful judging Quin right now in real time. You're convinced he's mafia, and if that's still the case I need help getting there. If it's not, there's still time.

[VOTE: JaggedJimmyJay] aubergine

Why shouldn't I look at your content?

[ColinIsCool]

It's going to suck if barely anyone is here at EOD.

I’m here!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Guys please don't lynch me. It's not me. I don't know who it is or even why you don't think I'm civ from my attempts to solve the game but I am certain we need to lynch either Quin or Scotty today and the other tomorrow or we could lose. If it's Jay we're fucked but he would deserve it. Don't make a stupid mistake at the last minute.

I'm not sure you've tried to solve the game prior to this day phase. At the demand of a three-player POE with you in it, you've brought the analytic fire. Prior to that, you were hopping lilly pads with every fly's jaunt. Your solving amounted to agreeing with other people's solving -- in every possible direction.

[nutella]

nutella gives Quin a ton of crap for being so confident on Day 4 in a tense situation.

nutella enters Day 5, what should be another tense situation, with total confidence in a Quin vote.

There was a period of total confidence, yes. Then I considered Scotty and have been frantically trying to decide between them ever since. Would you prefer Scotty over quin right now bc I'd happily switch

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I put my tinfoil hat on and read both the Jay/Choutas interactions, as well as the Day 4 EoD with the belief that Jay was bad. I came away with nothing, I just can't see any reason for Jay to be bad.

Sorry, not in the mood to spew out cases and ISOs right now. I'm happy to read and respond live though.

You're much more useful judging Quin right now in real time. You're convinced he's mafia, and if that's still the case I need help getting there. If it's not, there's still time.

[VOTE: JaggedJimmyJay] aubergine

Why shouldn't I look at your content?

You just said you looked at my content. I am giving you a next step. The deadline is in a half hour, and the present dialogue is critical.

[Quin]

nutella gives Quin a ton of crap for being so confident on Day 4 in a tense situation.

nutella enters Day 5, what should be another tense situation, with total confidence in a Quin vote.

There was a period of total confidence, yes. Then I considered Scotty and have been frantically trying to decide between them ever since. Would you prefer Scotty over quin right now bc I'd happily switch

And here the rest of us are treating today like LYLO.

[nutella]

Guys please don't lynch me. It's not me. I don't know who it is or even why you don't think I'm civ from my attempts to solve the game but I am certain we need to lynch either Quin or Scotty today and the other tomorrow or we could lose. If it's Jay we're fucked but he would deserve it. Don't make a stupid mistake at the last minute.

I'm not sure you've tried to solve the game prior to this day phase. At the demand of a three-player POE with you in it, you've brought the analytic fire. Prior to that, you were hopping lilly pads with every fly's jaunt. Your solving amounted to agreeing with other people's solving -- in every possible direction.

That's what solving is for me. That's how I play. I consider lots of possibilities and toss out thoughts in multiple directions. I've done the best I could each phase with the information thats been presented to me at the time. If you don't recognize that as how I play by now I don't know what to tell you.

[Marmot]

nutella gives Quin a ton of crap for being so confident on Day 4 in a tense situation.

nutella enters Day 5, what should be another tense situation, with total confidence in a Quin vote.

This is not as tense a situation. We had three roleclaims yesterday, including a counterclaim. The shit was getting hot!

I guess I'm not entirely caught up, but the Quin vs all battle doesn't looks as intense as the Colin vs Marmot (which admittedly, I might be jaded since I was a part of it).

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Guys please don't lynch me. It's not me. I don't know who it is or even why you don't think I'm civ from my attempts to solve the game but I am certain we need to lynch either Quin or Scotty today and the other tomorrow or we could lose. If it's Jay we're fucked but he would deserve it. Don't make a stupid mistake at the last minute.

I'm not sure you've tried to solve the game prior to this day phase. At the demand of a three-player POE with you in it, you've brought the analytic fire. Prior to that, you were hopping lilly pads with every fly's jaunt. Your solving amounted to agreeing with other people's solving -- in every possible direction.

That's what solving is for me. That's how I play. I consider lots of possibilities and toss out thoughts in multiple directions. I've done the best I could each phase with the information thats been presented to me at the time. If you don't recognize that as how I play by now I don't know what to tell you.

I believe that you think you play that way, but I don't know that reality meshes with that belief. I literally went looking for data to confirm or reject that notion, and the most similar example came from Fire Emblem.

[Marmot]

I put my tinfoil hat on and read both the Jay/Choutas interactions, as well as the Day 4 EoD with the belief that Jay was bad. I came away with nothing, I just can't see any reason for Jay to be bad.

Sorry, not in the mood to spew out cases and ISOs right now. I'm happy to read and respond live though.

You're much more useful judging Quin right now in real time. You're convinced he's mafia, and if that's still the case I need help getting there. If it's not, there's still time.

[VOTE: JaggedJimmyJay] aubergine

Why shouldn't I look at your content?

You just said you looked at my content. I am giving you a next step. The deadline is in a half hour, and the present dialogue is critical.

I've nary been around all day, why am I convincing you he's mafia?

[nutella]

Guys please don't lynch me. It's not me. I don't know who it is or even why you don't think I'm civ from my attempts to solve the game but I am certain we need to lynch either Quin or Scotty today and the other tomorrow or we could lose. If it's Jay we're fucked but he would deserve it. Don't make a stupid mistake at the last minute.

I'm not sure you've tried to solve the game prior to this day phase. At the demand of a three-player POE with you in it, you've brought the analytic fire. Prior to that, you were hopping lilly pads with every fly's jaunt. Your solving amounted to agreeing with other people's solving -- in every possible direction.

That's what solving is for me. That's how I play. I consider lots of possibilities and toss out thoughts in multiple directions. I've done the best I could each phase with the information thats been presented to me at the time. If you don't recognize that as how I play by now I don't know what to tell you.

I believe that you think you play that way, but I don't know that reality meshes with that belief. I literally went looking for data to confirm or reject that notion, and the most similar example came from Fire Emblem.

I am playing that way now and I am civ. Your data means nothing to me. This game has felt most similar to Fiddler on the Roof to me if you want to check that one.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I guess I'm not entirely caught up, but the Quin vs all battle doesn't looks as intense as the Colin vs Marmot (which admittedly, I might be jaded since I was a part of it).

I don't think this is Quin vs. all.

This is Quin vs. nutella vs. Scotty.

Despite my best efforts, I still can't eliminate one of them. The one who seems the most civilian right now to me is the one with the biggest wagon on his face at EOD. It's a frantic situation.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've nary been around all day, why am I convincing you he's mafia?

Fuck's sake man, I am asking you to help me. You're more confident than I am.

[Marmot]

nutella gives Quin a ton of crap for being so confident on Day 4 in a tense situation.

nutella enters Day 5, what should be another tense situation, with total confidence in a Quin vote.

There was a period of total confidence, yes. Then I considered Scotty and have been frantically trying to decide between them ever since. Would you prefer Scotty over quin right now bc I'd happily switch

And here the rest of us are treating today like LYLO.

Nah, I fully recognize that today's not LYLO.