Retrocausality Mafia - ENDGAME: A Reprieve in the Desert

[Lunalee]

@insertnamehere and @sig , assuming Quin has been mis-led by this pm, do you think it likely that you could both be aligned?

If he was mislead it would be by mafia so we're both not mafia yeah.

He could be indy, but i doubt it.

So you're not indy?

[Turnip Head]

I'm crawling back into my turnip hole

Can I come with.

Absolutely not

[Golden]

@Quin

nutella is a civ and either one of mac and golden is bad

IS this still true in your mind?

ye

I'm currently thinking about a sig/Golden team.

Why

Also could you explain your note a bit more? And why we should trust some random message.

Golden was quick to deny my info-dump before. Feels like he's your teammate and was protecting you.

No, I was quick to challenge it.

How many times do I have to say that I NEVER PROTECT TEAMMATES. Literally never because it is the stupidest thing to do.

Go read Economics, where I bussed my entire team early and rode it to the end. That's how you win as scum. Not protecting someone who had just been outed as having a 50% chance of being bad.

If you think you should get to say something and everyone just believe it without asking questions, you've got another think coming.

I would still keep a look out for WIFOM-Golden defending his team mates because he'll think we think he knows better.

If I thought that I wouldn't have to keep reminding people when they suspect me for the opposite.

[Epignosis]

Like I'm honestly shocked that in a role madness closed set up game everyone's just believing some random PM with information.

Because we have no reason to doubt it at all and it makes sense to have occurred in this game. There is zero reason to doubt it if you are a civilian and/or unaffected by it.

We have no reason to not not doubt it either though. Also how does it make sense? The way I see it two different night actions would've been needed to achieve it. Also no a civ/unaffected should doubt it. You're following information from an untraceable source, say INH and I both are civs (which you won't know since no flips and a mafia messenger would take advantage of that) who if you do figure out we're civs would you blame? Not quin since he just got the message but some faceless random player.

Honestly wouldn't be shocked if Mac sent the message, built a fake meta case to distance himself from it and now is using it to try to get me lynched. And he doesn't want to kill me since one he might believe I can't be killed and two it would paint a giant LYNCH ME I"M SCUM sign on him.

Epi has already said he wants to lynch INH next that's two phases wasted and no civs gone and mafia 4x closer to winning.


Someone pushing this PM INH vs SIg is bad and had a hand in sending the message. ALso notice how I was targeted and a semi inactive player? And I had just won the election boosting me and giving me something.

Oh ffs.



Is INH a civilian, sig?

[sig]

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

I'm about 85% sure he's mafia and sent the PM to quin to get INH and myself lynched all the while absolving himself of blame for our deaths.

[sig]

I'm crawling back into my turnip hole

Can I come with.

Absolutely not

Rude.

@insertnamehere and @sig , assuming Quin has been mis-led by this pm, do you think it likely that you could both be aligned?

If he was mislead it would be by mafia so we're both not mafia yeah.

He could be indy, but i doubt it.

So you're not indy?

Nope

Like I'm honestly shocked that in a role madness closed set up game everyone's just believing some random PM with information.

Because we have no reason to doubt it at all and it makes sense to have occurred in this game. There is zero reason to doubt it if you are a civilian and/or unaffected by it.

We have no reason to not not doubt it either though. Also how does it make sense? The way I see it two different night actions would've been needed to achieve it. Also no a civ/unaffected should doubt it. You're following information from an untraceable source, say INH and I both are civs (which you won't know since no flips and a mafia messenger would take advantage of that) who if you do figure out we're civs would you blame? Not quin since he just got the message but some faceless random player.

Honestly wouldn't be shocked if Mac sent the message, built a fake meta case to distance himself from it and now is using it to try to get me lynched. And he doesn't want to kill me since one he might believe I can't be killed and two it would paint a giant LYNCH ME I"M SCUM sign on him.

Epi has already said he wants to lynch INH next that's two phases wasted and no civs gone and mafia 4x closer to winning.


Someone pushing this PM INH vs SIg is bad and had a hand in sending the message. ALso notice how I was targeted and a semi inactive player? And I had just won the election boosting me and giving me something.

Oh ffs.



Is INH a civilian, sig?

Yes we both are the message is a lie.

[Lunalee]

@Quin

nutella is a civ and either one of mac and golden is bad

IS this still true in your mind?

ye

I'm currently thinking about a sig/Golden team.

Why

Also could you explain your note a bit more? And why we should trust some random message.

Golden was quick to deny my info-dump before. Feels like he's your teammate and was protecting you.

No, I was quick to challenge it.

How many times do I have to say that I NEVER PROTECT TEAMMATES. Literally never because it is the stupidest thing to do.

Go read Economics, where I bussed my entire team early and rode it to the end. That's how you win as scum. Not protecting someone who had just been outed as having a 50% chance of being bad.

If you think you should get to say something and everyone just believe it without asking questions, you've got another think coming.

I would still keep a look out for WIFOM-Golden defending his team mates because he'll think we think he knows better.

If I thought that I wouldn't have to keep reminding people when they suspect me for the opposite.

Which is why you absolutely would have to remind people of your meta tendency to bus teammates for your ploy to work.

[MacDougall]

Like I'm honestly shocked that in a role madness closed set up game everyone's just believing some random PM with information.

Because we have no reason to doubt it at all and it makes sense to have occurred in this game. There is zero reason to doubt it if you are a civilian and/or unaffected by it.

We have no reason to not not doubt it either though. Also how does it make sense? The way I see it two different night actions would've been needed to achieve it. Also no a civ/unaffected should doubt it. You're following information from an untraceable source, say INH and I both are civs (which you won't know since no flips and a mafia messenger would take advantage of that) who if you do figure out we're civs would you blame? Not quin since he just got the message but some faceless random player.

Honestly wouldn't be shocked if Mac sent the message, built a fake meta case to distance himself from it and now is using it to try to get me lynched. And he doesn't want to kill me since one he might believe I can't be killed and two it would paint a giant LYNCH ME I"M SCUM sign on him.

Epi has already said he wants to lynch INH next that's two phases wasted and no civs gone and mafia 4x closer to winning.


Someone pushing this PM INH vs SIg is bad and had a hand in sending the message. ALso notice how I was targeted and a semi inactive player? And I had just won the election boosting me and giving me something.

Really?

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

I'm about 85% sure he's mafia and sent the PM to quin to get INH and myself lynched all the while absolving himself of blame for our deaths.

This is bullshit.

If you were a civilian, and you knew yourself for a civilian, and Quin got a message saying you and INH were not "aligned," you should have been ready to bury INH.

Instead, you're making up funny theories about the origin of the message.

[Lunalee]

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] can you please put an end-time on these polls?

[sig]

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

I'm about 85% sure he's mafia and sent the PM to quin to get INH and myself lynched all the while absolving himself of blame for our deaths.

This is bullshit.

If you were a civilian, and you knew yourself for a civilian, and Quin got a message saying you and INH were not "aligned," you should have been ready to bury INH.

Instead, you're making up funny theories about the origin of the message.

Nope it isn't, I'm doubtful that the message is good I think its a baddie power. I don't see why that's so odd.

Though seeing how so many people jumped on me maybe I'm wrong and INH is mafia and i'm being pushed by his teammates. BUT I doubt it.

[Epignosis]

By the way, in case it eluded anybody's attention, INH all but claimed not to be a civilian.

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

I'm about 85% sure he's mafia and sent the PM to quin to get INH and myself lynched all the while absolving himself of blame for our deaths.

This is bullshit.

If you were a civilian, and you knew yourself for a civilian, and Quin got a message saying you and INH were not "aligned," you should have been ready to bury INH.

Instead, you're making up funny theories about the origin of the message.

Nope it isn't, I'm doubtful that the message is good I think its a baddie power. I don't see why that's so odd.

Though seeing how so many people jumped on me maybe I'm wrong and INH is mafia and i'm being pushed by his teammates. BUT I doubt it.

On what basis do you believe this message comes from the forces of evil? Be clear.

[Kylemii]

"i bet the kyle and the baddies are laughing in btsc"

these words should be banned

EBWOP

oh good you're gonna double down on that, i guess?

linki: I assumed by his wording he meant a message and he never moved to correct me so I'm sticking with that until he says otherwise.

but you just listed a bunch of ways that that interpretation is impossible, why are you sticking with believing something you think is unlikely, when the idea that quin received blessed knowledge from our father speedchuck, makes more sense in most ways

[Kylemii]

By the way, in case it eluded anybody's attention, INH all but claimed not to be a civilian.

what

[Kylemii]

I'm crawling back into my turnip hole

you....... shouldn't call it that

[sig]

Also if I was mafia why wouldn't I bury INH? THERE ARE NO FLIPS I could've come out swinging against him got him lynched and I'd have been fine. Like it makes no sense why mafia wouldn't take advantage of that. The fact I'm pointing out another option makes me more likely to be civ since I could've just tunneled him.

[Golden]

@Quin

nutella is a civ and either one of mac and golden is bad

IS this still true in your mind?

ye

I'm currently thinking about a sig/Golden team.

Why

Also could you explain your note a bit more? And why we should trust some random message.

Golden was quick to deny my info-dump before. Feels like he's your teammate and was protecting you.

No, I was quick to challenge it.

How many times do I have to say that I NEVER PROTECT TEAMMATES. Literally never because it is the stupidest thing to do.

Go read Economics, where I bussed my entire team early and rode it to the end. That's how you win as scum. Not protecting someone who had just been outed as having a 50% chance of being bad.

If you think you should get to say something and everyone just believe it without asking questions, you've got another think coming.

I would still keep a look out for WIFOM-Golden defending his team mates because he'll think we think he knows better.

If I thought that I wouldn't have to keep reminding people when they suspect me for the opposite.

Which is why you absolutely would have to remind people of your meta tendency to bus teammates for your ploy to work.

Luna, trust me when I say this...

Telling people things never makes them listen. You have to prove it to them over games and games and games before you can flip your meta on them. And it's only worth doing it in circumstances where it's particularly meaningful, because it undoes sooo much work, and you have to start building new metas from scratch.

When I bussed people in Economics, it worked particular well because I NEVER bussed people. It still works because of the way people perceive me. I can get a lot of civ cred through leading a successful lynch if I play my cards right. But also, it partly works because I frequently successfully lead lynches when town, too, so I'm 'on meta'.

I will flip my meta on people one day. But it won't be a day when I'm reminding you of the meta I'm going to flip on you, I promise you. I know enough to know I can never convince you of what I'm telling you and betray it all in the same game - you saw how hard I had to fight just to get people to pick a different poll option on a non-important poll in U-Pick. It's not that easy to get people to listen to what you're saying. I cultivate meta as a long con, not a short con, because that's what builds the successful flip.

(Plus, there's no value to me ruining my meta in that way in a game like this. I could just as easily defend my teammates given they wouldn't flip bad, and then claim I chose to play this game differently because of the different set up which enabled me to do it, but that it isn't a shift in my meta, just a particular circumstance that required different play).

[speedchuck]

@speedchuck can you please put an end-time on these polls?

[sig]

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

I'm about 85% sure he's mafia and sent the PM to quin to get INH and myself lynched all the while absolving himself of blame for our deaths.

This is bullshit.

If you were a civilian, and you knew yourself for a civilian, and Quin got a message saying you and INH were not "aligned," you should have been ready to bury INH.

Instead, you're making up funny theories about the origin of the message.

Nope it isn't, I'm doubtful that the message is good I think its a baddie power. I don't see why that's so odd.

Though seeing how so many people jumped on me maybe I'm wrong and INH is mafia and i'm being pushed by his teammates. BUT I doubt it.

On what basis do you believe this message comes from the forces of evil? Be clear.

I'm a civ
I believe he's a civ
I think it's just as likely that this is a mafia power as a civ power and that thoughts compounded by the fact that nobody else seems to question it.
I think mafia would send a PM saying that one of two civ players aren't civ to get us both lynched and distract the thread from anything else.

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

I'm about 85% sure he's mafia and sent the PM to quin to get INH and myself lynched all the while absolving himself of blame for our deaths.

Sorry the tinfoil took too long to come out to be believable bro

[sig]

Just to be clear I have no information to hint that INH is a civ or that the message was sent by mafia, but I'm almost certain it was and that Mac is a member of that team.

[Epignosis]

sig, at what point did you ever forget that I was in this?

[sig]

sig, at what point did you ever forget that I was in this?

I answered that, when I made a list ranking all the player from civ to mafia you weren't on it I forgot you.

[Golden]

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

I'm about 85% sure he's mafia and sent the PM to quin to get INH and myself lynched all the while absolving himself of blame for our deaths.

This is bullshit.

If you were a civilian, and you knew yourself for a civilian, and Quin got a message saying you and INH were not "aligned," you should have been ready to bury INH.

Instead, you're making up funny theories about the origin of the message.

Nope it isn't, I'm doubtful that the message is good I think its a baddie power. I don't see why that's so odd.

Though seeing how so many people jumped on me maybe I'm wrong and INH is mafia and i'm being pushed by his teammates. BUT I doubt it.

Because it's not a message.

Quin said he's 100% certain. So he didn't get a message from someone else, because he'd never say he was 100% certain in that circumstance. It's either his role power, or an item, or some other thing at play that we can't guess at. The one thing that is obvious is it's not someone pulling the wool over his eyes because this is the first thing I went out of my way to get Quin to rule out.

The only chance this is incorrect is if Quin himself is bad and just making the whole thing up.

[MacDougall]

Also if I was mafia why wouldn't I bury INH? THERE ARE NO FLIPS I could've come out swinging against him got him lynched and I'd have been fine. Like it makes no sense why mafia wouldn't take advantage of that. The fact I'm pointing out another option makes me more likely to be civ since I could've just tunneled him.

Because there are no flips and we have to lynch you both anyway so your only chance of survival is to cast doubt on the message itself.

[Golden]

By the way, in case it eluded anybody's attention, INH all but claimed not to be a civilian.

It did elude my attention. Could you point this out?

Because if INH is indy it's not impossible that sig is town and just being suspicious because that's how he does things.

[sig]

Also if I was mafia why wouldn't I bury INH? THERE ARE NO FLIPS I could've come out swinging against him got him lynched and I'd have been fine. Like it makes no sense why mafia wouldn't take advantage of that. The fact I'm pointing out another option makes me more likely to be civ since I could've just tunneled him.

Because there are no flips and we have to lynch you both anyway so your only chance of survival is to cast doubt on the message itself.

Right here is why i think the entire thing is fake.

[MacDougall]

Just to be clear I have no information to hint that INH is a civ or that the message was sent by mafia, but I'm almost certain it was and that Mac is a member of that team.

Really? Holy shit dude. At least you've finally arrived at your true form.

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

I'm about 85% sure he's mafia and sent the PM to quin to get INH and myself lynched all the while absolving himself of blame for our deaths.

This is bullshit.

If you were a civilian, and you knew yourself for a civilian, and Quin got a message saying you and INH were not "aligned," you should have been ready to bury INH.

Instead, you're making up funny theories about the origin of the message.

Nope it isn't, I'm doubtful that the message is good I think its a baddie power. I don't see why that's so odd.

Though seeing how so many people jumped on me maybe I'm wrong and INH is mafia and i'm being pushed by his teammates. BUT I doubt it.

On what basis do you believe this message comes from the forces of evil? Be clear.

I'm a civ
I believe he's a civ
I think it's just as likely that this is a mafia power as a civ power and that thoughts compounded by the fact that nobody else seems to question it.
I think mafia would send a PM saying that one of two civ players aren't civ to get us both lynched and distract the thread from anything else.

On what basis do you believe INH is a civilian?

[sig]

Also mafia, civ, indy, why would I not cast doubt on a message that's going to get me lynched regardless! If anything this entire thing is NAI.

It should also be noted that Mac is pushing this and he's either mafia trying to lynch me or a tunneling civvie.

[Kylemii]

golden always writes 5 paragraph essays about the consistencies of his meta when he's civ so he's probably civ here too

[MacDougall]

By the way, in case it eluded anybody's attention, INH all but claimed not to be a civilian.

It did elude my attention. Could you point this out?

Because if INH is indy it's not impossible that sig is town and just being suspicious because that's how he does things.

Yes this is true but it's a bloody tight fit to put sig into the civ hole when you look at the analysis of everything on display here including the fact that I had him as primary scum read before he even did this.

[Lunalee]

Spoiler: show

@Quin



IS this still true in your mind?

ye



Why

Also could you explain your note a bit more? And why we should trust some random message.

Golden was quick to deny my info-dump before. Feels like he's your teammate and was protecting you.

No, I was quick to challenge it.

How many times do I have to say that I NEVER PROTECT TEAMMATES. Literally never because it is the stupidest thing to do.

Go read Economics, where I bussed my entire team early and rode it to the end. That's how you win as scum. Not protecting someone who had just been outed as having a 50% chance of being bad.

If you think you should get to say something and everyone just believe it without asking questions, you've got another think coming.

I would still keep a look out for WIFOM-Golden defending his team mates because he'll think we think he knows better.

If I thought that I wouldn't have to keep reminding people when they suspect me for the opposite.

Which is why you absolutely would have to remind people of your meta tendency to bus teammates for your ploy to work.

Luna, trust me when I say this...

Telling people things never makes them listen. You have to prove it to them over games and games and games before you can flip your meta on them. And it's only worth doing it in circumstances where it's particularly meaningful, because it undoes sooo much work, and you have to start building new metas from scratch.

When I bussed people in Economics, it worked particular well because I NEVER bussed people. It still works because of the way people perceive me. I can get a lot of civ cred through leading a successful lynch if I play my cards right. But also, it partly works because I frequently successfully lead lynches when town, too, so I'm 'on meta'.

I will flip my meta on people one day. But it won't be a day when I'm reminding you of the meta I'm going to flip on you, I promise you. I know enough to know I can never convince you of what I'm telling you and betray it all in the same game - you saw how hard I had to fight just to get people to pick a different poll option on a non-important poll in U-Pick. It's not that easy to get people to listen to what you're saying. I cultivate meta as a long con, not a short con, because that's what builds the successful flip.

(Plus, there's no value to me ruining my meta in that way in a game like this. I could just as easily defend my teammates given they wouldn't flip bad, and then claim I chose to play this game differently because of the different set up which enabled me to do it, but that it isn't a shift in my meta, just a particular circumstance that required different play).

Wow, thats quite an explanation, Golden. I believed your claims, but thought I'd poke at it a bit to get more of a response. And you did not disappoint.

[Epignosis]

By the way, in case it eluded anybody's attention, INH all but claimed not to be a civilian.

It did elude my attention. Could you point this out?

Because if INH is indy it's not impossible that sig is town and just being suspicious because that's how he does things.

I'm surprised nobody has said anything.

I thought Scotty's D1 voting pattern was weird and suspicious enough for me to vote for him, however, if he later went against what made me suspicious, I was open to changing it to someone else.

Quin is trying to put me in a situation where I either post the details of my role, proving that I'm not a threat to the civilians, or he's gonna make me look like a confirmed baddie, and serve my head on a platter.

But apparently the first is malevolent blackmail, and the second is okay, kosher civ behavior.


Linki:

Why should I care about your role? Scum gets fakeclaims.

What? I thought fake-claims were more character based. Like, if everyone said the name of their role, and three of the names were obvious bad guys in time-travel related tales, then fakeclaims would allow them to at least appear as simpatico, non-enemy sounding roles. That's how I used them in the games I've hosted. I'm not familiar with fake-claims including fake abilities.

Well, what the fuck do you want from me, Quin? If literally nothing I can say about myself or my role could change anything, fuck it.

Might as well ignore you then.

[sig]

[VOTE: Mac] aubergine

I'm about 85% sure he's mafia and sent the PM to quin to get INH and myself lynched all the while absolving himself of blame for our deaths.

This is bullshit.

If you were a civilian, and you knew yourself for a civilian, and Quin got a message saying you and INH were not "aligned," you should have been ready to bury INH.

Instead, you're making up funny theories about the origin of the message.

Nope it isn't, I'm doubtful that the message is good I think its a baddie power. I don't see why that's so odd.

Though seeing how so many people jumped on me maybe I'm wrong and INH is mafia and i'm being pushed by his teammates. BUT I doubt it.

On what basis do you believe this message comes from the forces of evil? Be clear.

I'm a civ
I believe he's a civ
I think it's just as likely that this is a mafia power as a civ power and that thoughts compounded by the fact that nobody else seems to question it.
I think mafia would send a PM saying that one of two civ players aren't civ to get us both lynched and distract the thread from anything else.

On what basis do you believe INH is a civilian?

Well his day 1 was different then Ass an U-pick which is why i was civ reading him a bit before. Now i'm mainly civ reading him since I think the message is fake (assuming its a message) and that mafia wouldn't have a mafia member in it.

[MacDougall]

Also mafia, civ, indy, why would I not cast doubt on a message that's going to get me lynched regardless! If anything this entire thing is NAI.

It should also be noted that Mac is pushing this and he's either mafia trying to lynch me or a tunneling civvie.

No sig I am a civilian who based on the balance of probability considers you highly likely to be mafia and I am not alone.

[Quin]

INH's reaction is not exactly what I would expect but it is a lot more easy to rationalise than sig's has been.

ye

[Lunalee]

@speedchuck can you please put an end-time on these polls?

okay, but like for next time though.

[sig]

Also mafia, civ, indy, why would I not cast doubt on a message that's going to get me lynched regardless! If anything this entire thing is NAI.

It should also be noted that Mac is pushing this and he's either mafia trying to lynch me or a tunneling civvie.

No sig I am a civilian who based on the balance of probability considers you highly likely to be mafia and I am not alone.

I've not veen mafia for 2 years the gods of RVS hate me so blah.

[sig]

OH WAIT

Did Speed ever say mafia would get fake flavor?

[sig]

OH WAIT

Did Speed ever say mafia would get fake flavor?

Nevermind he did I just didn't read the rules.

[Epignosis]

sig, at what point did you ever forget that I was in this?

I answered that, when I made a list ranking all the player from civ to mafia you weren't on it I forgot you.

So that qualifies as "keep forgetting?"

and wow I keep forgetting that Epi is in this game, and he didnt do any day 1 shenanigans. I'd put him as Mafia maybe on my list.

Your words.

"Keep forgetting" is a tense that implies you have habitually done this. This remark came after you made that list. When did you forget me before?

[Golden]

Now I'm worried about what luna does to speedchuck in the privacy of their own home when speed puts timers on the polls. I feel like we've walked in on something.

[Quin]

By the way, in case it eluded anybody's attention, INH all but claimed not to be a civilian.

ye

[MacDougall]

If INH is indie-claiming then that is a point for sig for a few reasons.

[Epignosis]

@speedchuck can you please put an end-time on these polls?

okay, but like for next time though.

Aren't you his significant other? Can't you show him something else what would be extremely painful?

[Golden]

Thinking on what epi pointed out. First instinct says I agree, want to sit with it and see if I feel differently later.

[Golden]

I beat epi to the joke.

[Quin]

How does a civilian when posed the scenario that another player has info that declares that they are not the same alignment as another player that they should not know the role of - rationalise to question the validity of that information as their primary response as opposed to becoming extremely confident of the scum alignment of the other player?

Mafia however would undoubtedly seek to do this because otherwise they will be lynched in due course. Their only long term plan for survival here is to place doubt on the validity of the information.

Ergo there is very little doubt that sig is scum at this point.

It was a random PM sent saying we were unaligned why trust that? I totally bet somewhere in scum chat land a player is giggling that y'all are failing for such an obvious ploy to get people lynched. Also how would a player both get access to that information AND be able to send a PM? Unless Quin is lying about the PM being sent and it's his role. If so then yeah I'd go after INH since ik I'm civ until we know that though I think Quin is a duped civ and mafia sent him a message containing the names of two civs so y'all would witch hunt us.

In my experience scum don't come up with random gambits that put themselves out there on day 2 just for the benefit of lynching one of two random civilians but I would be happy to receive evidence of such a thing having precedence let alone such frequency so as to be considered an "obvious ploy.

It also doesn't take much creativity to think of a role that another player (not named quin) might have that can explain this event.

"Each night you may send a player a letter with two names in it and they will be informed if those players are aligned together or not."

Work backwards from there to add flavour.

a baddie who digs himself an early grave with such bizarre tactics is a baddie i aspire to be