1. okay but how am i gonna know this without a post/voteThe Dry Flood wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:42 am Also my vote was 7 minutes before end of day. I don’t know if colinisspeed ever made it around
Two-Headed Monster Mafia [GAME OVER MAN]
Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 4]
Fractal
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 4]
Get the tinfoil out of your butt. I’ve townslipped twice and singlehandedly caught cupman for no purpose if I was bad.
You can trust what I say.
You can trust what I say.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 4]
Because Colin indicated he thought you were bad. With me seeming likely to die and Colin possibly going a direction I was sure was wrong, my perspective on what was the higher percentage move changed.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 3]
Golden is TownThe Dry Flood wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:56 pmYou literally tole me why my Cupman/GM can't be a team theory was wrong, and then were worried about my affiliation. This makes zero sense.ColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:51 pmTo your last sentence — why? I don’t see why you would be outside of the POE before today.The Dry Flood wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:46 pmQuite pointless, in fact, so obviously not a bus job.ColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:44 pm It doesn’t seem like that would have been necessary, though, so I struggle to see it.
This also despite the fact I have literally townslipped about the nature of both possible mafia power roles.
Your trying to rationalise my affiliation is entirely false. You know I'm town. Neither Colin nor Speed would have had any doubt from quite a while ago now.
What's the baddie thinking there?
1) We're in the world of the doublevoters and I'm lying about what I know to... eliminate a very viable team makeup I could be selling when I haven't got great reads on either? or
2) We're in the ninja world, so I could be genuinely mistaken about how doublevoter functions but then I've lied about my mistaken understanding of how a ninja works... and I'm still just eliminating a viable team makeup I could be selling.
You're also the one that corrected me about the ninja, but you seem to have forgotten that. You went through a full conversation with me and nutella to test whether that was a genuine townslip. Nutella confirmed that my understanding of ninja is based on our background. So to hit a second example of the same thing and still to have worries? That's unnatural.
There's so many things in this game which point to me being town:
Why have I protected Galactic Mac?
Why did I make an about face on Fratyo?
Why did I go after the mafia power role?
My game is so bold faced town that there couldn't be any doubt now, yet you're trying to rationalise away your doubts, or still harbouring that it could be a bus. It just isn't believable. Both of you are far more willing to trust me when I'm looking this town and you're town.
Occam's Razor, speedcolin is mafia
Fractal
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 4]
yeah i should just go with my original opinion. solving things fucks me up too muchThe Dry Flood wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:47 am Get the tinfoil out of your butt. I’ve townslipped twice and singlehandedly caught cupman for no purpose if I was bad.
You can trust what I say.
Fractal
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 4]
"Event: The tire on the car is flat. Of possible explanations a) It has a screw in it and b) A serial tire-flattener came through the neighbor and sliced the tire open, explanation "a" is more likely."
A is speedchuck/colin
B is golden/marmot
A is speedchuck/colin
B is golden/marmot
Fractal
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 4]
if im wrong, then someone might as well have shit in my cornflakes
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 4]
Legacy post, in case
I’ve swung back and forth on this. I could legitimately go either way. But here’s where I land, finally.
The lunatella kill is the work of colinisspeed. Luna came out with ‘speed is bad’. Then she’s dead.
If speedchuck is actually bad, they really had no choice but to make that kill. There’s no way to avoid it, Luna’s too much of a threat.
From the perspective of an engaged Galactic Mac, you might suggest it could be a deliberate setup. But at mylo, why would they take out such a strong voice against speed as a setup when you have fratyo on the board, the guy who has been pursuing them for an age?
From the point of view of a disengaged Galactic Mac, it makes even less sense - as does the MP1 kill... disengaged teams are even more likely to remove the threat to them.
I found speedand Colin very convincing in their response to me when I came at them. That frustration was real, though... and they’ve had some major scum-leaning tells like ‘if I’m town’ and ‘don’t just suspect me, give me something to defend against’. All in all, colinisspeed just feels like the right vote, and I endorse it.
I’ve swung back and forth on this. I could legitimately go either way. But here’s where I land, finally.
The lunatella kill is the work of colinisspeed. Luna came out with ‘speed is bad’. Then she’s dead.
If speedchuck is actually bad, they really had no choice but to make that kill. There’s no way to avoid it, Luna’s too much of a threat.
From the perspective of an engaged Galactic Mac, you might suggest it could be a deliberate setup. But at mylo, why would they take out such a strong voice against speed as a setup when you have fratyo on the board, the guy who has been pursuing them for an age?
From the point of view of a disengaged Galactic Mac, it makes even less sense - as does the MP1 kill... disengaged teams are even more likely to remove the threat to them.
I found speedand Colin very convincing in their response to me when I came at them. That frustration was real, though... and they’ve had some major scum-leaning tells like ‘if I’m town’ and ‘don’t just suspect me, give me something to defend against’. All in all, colinisspeed just feels like the right vote, and I endorse it.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 4]
Spoiler: show
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Nightkill analysis is not the way to go ... my nightkills are almost never against someone voicing suspicion of me, I’m not that obvious.
This head will confer with the other head about our vote. The night didn’t go the way I planned.
This head will confer with the other head about our vote. The night didn’t go the way I planned.
Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
And sorry sprit, but that’s not how Occam’s Razor works.
Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
(I’m pretty sure I know what my other head is going to say, but let’s draw the drama out a little while.)
Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Since my boss isn’t here and I have nothing to do, and we’re still tasked with defending ourselves: there is NO world in which I behave the way I did toward the Cuphead lynch if I’m scum. Look at my scum games — I tried bussing Sloonei in AG early on, I bussed Choutas and fought with Scotty in Easter, I bussed everybody almost without a second thought in Retro. Compare that to my town games — I inadvertently defended Long Con and Fractal in Courage, I did the same to SEVERAL scum (Luna, Sloonei) in U-Pick. I won’t speak for speed, but I’m a busser through and through and I would have been an ardent Cuphead voter if I were scum. I’ve got receipts.
Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
I don't know why my other head waited for me to vote. Seems obvious what we should do.
It's possible to tinfoil Dry Flood since they weren't killed tonight. But that would be silly. Mafia Dry Flood could have killed any player currently in the game, except for themselves, and still win by lynching ColinIsSpeed or Galactic Mac. Tinfoiling their alignment is a possibility, but Galactic Mac is a vote that is less risky, makes more sense, and really if Dry Flood is scum at this point, they deserve the win against this town activity.
That all said, it's not that strange for Fratyo to be killed by Gmac. It may look scummy for me to say this because of WIFOM, but Dry Flood decided to lynch us right before the night ended, looks like. Why wouldn't Galactic Mac keep them around to finish ColinIsSpeed off?
Regarding Dry Flood's nightkill analysis: When this head is in control of the kills in a game, he goes full Death Note with it. Killing WIFOM-full targets is great. I never kill people that suspect me when in control. But...
But the second part of my scumkill meta is that I never try to take control of the kill because I just don't give a crap, and I don't want the guilt on my hands of choosing. Make of that what you will. I think I have been on a team that killed Epi on Night 1, because I just stayed out of it. Felt guilty anyway.
The lack of voting for Gmac yesterday by this account was due to genuine absence, at least from this head. I'm certain Gmac is scum, outside of tinfoil. Why wouldn't I go ahead and vote for that? It certainly would have been better than going into today with Dry Flood gunning for us. Again.
Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Oh, and ditto the bussing thing. Only time I defend people as scum is if they are town, because I get good guy points for it. Only time I defend scum is if I'm town, because I'm a moronic hunter. I'm pretty sure my meta record is perfect on those things, and it's gonna stay that way.
Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
I actually don’t have the option to vote from checking the results.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Fixed.ColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:20 pm I actually don’t have the option to vote from checking the results.
Spoiler: show
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
As much as I endorsed a side before the result came in... I really want to hear from Galactic Mac today.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Oh and the ‘why wouldn’t they keep flood around to finish us off’ is a terrible argument.
I posted 6 minutes before end of night and made sure that neither daisy nor Mac nor Colin nor speed were around before I did it.
In fact, the reverse could be said. I tried to cfd Galactic Mac yesterday. I have no indication my position had changed. Wouldn’t it make sense for colinisspeed to keep me alive rather than GM so I’ll finish GM off?
I posted 6 minutes before end of night and made sure that neither daisy nor Mac nor Colin nor speed were around before I did it.
In fact, the reverse could be said. I tried to cfd Galactic Mac yesterday. I have no indication my position had changed. Wouldn’t it make sense for colinisspeed to keep me alive rather than GM so I’ll finish GM off?
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Didn't realize the timing of that. Obviously I wasn't around. I rescind my argument.The Dry Flood wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:56 pm Oh and the ‘why wouldn’t they keep flood around to finish us off’ is a terrible argument.
I posted 6 minutes before end of night and made sure that neither daisy nor Mac nor Colin nor speed were around before I did it.
In fact, the reverse could be said. I tried to cfd Galactic Mac yesterday. I have no indication my position had changed. Wouldn’t it make sense for colinisspeed to keep me alive rather than GM so I’ll finish GM off?
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
[mention]jaggedjimmyjay[/mention] is hammer voting in effect?
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
[mention]colinisspeed[/mention] [mention]coliniscool[/mention] [mention]speedchuck[/mention]
I would like to know each of your independent views on developing townreads and using PoE as a method, independent of this game situation.
I would like to know each of your independent views on developing townreads and using PoE as a method, independent of this game situation.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
[mention]galactic Mac[/mention]
[mention]snakedaisy[/mention]
I want a genuine assessment of whether you would have carried out those nightkills in a vacuum, and if not why not, taking into account your levels of activity.
[mention]snakedaisy[/mention]
I want a genuine assessment of whether you would have carried out those nightkills in a vacuum, and if not why not, taking into account your levels of activity.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
[mention]macdougall[/mention]
In a relatively disengaged way, you suspected colinisspeed. I’d like to hear about what it was that made you feel that way, and whether you had any specific reads of other socks at the time, regardless of whether you now know those reads were right or wrong.
In a relatively disengaged way, you suspected colinisspeed. I’d like to hear about what it was that made you feel that way, and whether you had any specific reads of other socks at the time, regardless of whether you now know those reads were right or wrong.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Looking back at 2 dogs night 1.
Damn it was phenomenal. Dunya basically solved the game except, unfortunately, for the question of which of these two are bad. Looking at that stuff she’s so on point that it’s no wonder she was killed. Also TH was there
Damn it was phenomenal. Dunya basically solved the game except, unfortunately, for the question of which of these two are bad. Looking at that stuff she’s so on point that it’s no wonder she was killed. Also TH was there
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Hm. Speed here.The Dry Flood wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:19 pm @colinisspeed @coliniscool @speedchuck
I would like to know each of your independent views on developing townreads and using PoE as a method, independent of this game situation.
I only have hard townreads as scum, or due to mechanics.
Generally, as town, I'm adaptable. I sometimes trust other people to be better hunters than I am, and only serve to cog up the world and make people evaluate things. I especially pay attention to the flow of the game, who is causing hot potato lynches and how easily lynches are formed.
A little off topic there.
When I'm more active in a game, I usually rely on meta towntells to help me formulate townreads. Hard to do in this game.
That's all I've got. I don't think much of my methodology as town.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Sorry to make you do work, but if you're town it will be very helpful.ColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:05 pm Dry Flood, why is Fratyo town?
Since we are seemingly not in a doublevoter world, is there any reason to vote C&M over Galactic Mac?
linki: hi other head
Can you go from this post through to the end of day 3 and split the posts into which were from speed and which from colin. It's only about 8-10 posts, but this would be very helpful in evaluating your intent in that period.
Similarly, on day 2, you have a Luna vote followed by a Fratyo vote. It's confusing to understand how your different heads were playing out. Can you please describe who had what opinion and what exactly went on at end of day there?
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
I'm truly 50/50.
Each time I read more or read again, I go back and forth.
If Galactic Mac are bad, the mafia have taken the easy route as a team. Phone it in, get passed over, get loud voices to cannibalize themselves. This is quite viable. From their perspective, the kills wouldn't make so much sense - but that is consistent with disengagement, potentially.
If Colinisspeed is bad, they still fit a traditional baddie archetype. They've kept their options open and killed smartly if it's them. They would make smart kills.
Each has content I like and content I don't like. Right now I feel like I'm flipping a mental coin.
Each time I read more or read again, I go back and forth.
If Galactic Mac are bad, the mafia have taken the easy route as a team. Phone it in, get passed over, get loud voices to cannibalize themselves. This is quite viable. From their perspective, the kills wouldn't make so much sense - but that is consistent with disengagement, potentially.
If Colinisspeed is bad, they still fit a traditional baddie archetype. They've kept their options open and killed smartly if it's them. They would make smart kills.
Each has content I like and content I don't like. Right now I feel like I'm flipping a mental coin.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Speed, since you're busier than I am I can do my best to answer if you see this.
Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 3]
Speed here. I townread Fratyo early, and Colin's paranoia made me more sus over time in btsc. Just for some context.
Queue up more questions for me. I'll try to answer them in a timely fashion. Still on vacation with crap internet.
linki: TOOO LAAAATE CCCOOOOLLLIIIN
speedColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:05 pm Dry Flood, why is Fratyo town?
Since we are seemingly not in a doublevoter world, is there any reason to vote C&M over Galactic Mac?
linki: hi other head
colinColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:06 pmFratyo is perfectly content to vote any of these 3, because they have no reads, because they are scum.
colinColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:10 pm I am personally leaning toward believable to the case on Cupheads (dunno about my other head) but notice that they did not try to vote for somebody else out of self-preservation yet.
SpeedColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:13 pm1-shot doublevote! It's completely optional, and doesn't need to be hidden. This case is built on false info.The Dry Flood wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:59 pm I could see this as deliberate hiding of a double vote power. Something is ringing a bell with me here regarding epi in Night Vale. He may have had the same power there. Just noting this in case someone gets a look and I can’t.
speedColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:14 pm I don't think C&M is anything more than a shot in the dark, especially since we are likely in the ninja world. I'd reaaaally rather not use MYLO lynching them.
speedColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:17 pm If Galactic Mac is the town doublevoter, putting us in that world, then Fratyo is 100% scum who has been trying to get us to no lynch so they can doublevote for the win.
I suspect them either way.
It's worrisome how easily Dry Flood is buddying with them.
speedColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:18 pm I'll try to be back before EOD. We have enough info not to be foolish this lynch. Think about it.
colinColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:18 pmYou seem like a smart fella.ColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:18 pm I'll try to be back before EOD. We have enough info not to be foolish this lynch. Think about it.
ColinColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:52 pmI would like evidence to this claim. I have provided a series of examples or direct quotes which put Fractal as behaving according to his scum meta, or a general scum meta from him and sprit. On the other hand, you just say “he’s genuine” as if that’s hard proof.The Dry Flood wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:39 pm There is a 0% chance Fratyo is bad at this point. The searching has been earnest. I hate the idea that 'you're happy with any of these three because you aren't hunting' when there's two baddies our there.
colinColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:54 pmIs it not possible that your understanding of the game is incorrect because it’s not an understanding, but rather, a deliberate ploy? Your latest posts make me feel more that you are town if this is LYLO but I really fail to understand some things here.The Dry Flood wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:41 pmIt's worrisome how much you are deliberately ignoring strong evidence of towniness all over the show.ColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:17 pmIt's worrisome how easily Dry Flood is buddying with them.
I cannot possibly believe that in the space of a couple of minutes you both correct my understanding of the game role again and are still worried about me. There is huge cognitive dissonance there.
colinColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:57 pm If Fractal is bad again and town loses I’m driving to his house to arm wrestle him
Queue up more questions for me. I'll try to answer them in a timely fashion. Still on vacation with crap internet.
linki: TOOO LAAAATE CCCOOOOLLLIIIN
Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
You're welcome to answer the follow-up questions Colin, at least for a bit. Gonna play a board game.
Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Developing townreads: I'm not sure I have anything to say here that wouldn't be rambling. Generally if people do stuff that I like meta-wise, or has logic that's tight, or rings true to my experiences in the game as far as reads go, or is making what seems to be a genuine (tone read) pro-town effort at gamesolving, those are all things that are a notch in favor. However, as I've said, I'm currently way too eager to award brownie points for false instances of all of that and it loses games. So I'm sort of fighting the impulse to settle on people prematurely as much as I must fight the impulse to tinfoil them ... if that makes sense. This is rambling.The Dry Flood wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:19 pm I would like to know each of your independent views on developing townreads and using PoE as a method, independent of this game situation.
PoE: I haven't really lived long enough in Syndicate games as town to feel like I've used this, but it's obviously a viable strategy if you look to U-Pick, Retro, and others like Easter where it nearly worked out. It depends on having solid town reads, though, so see above ... not sure if I answered this.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
IIRC, speed and I had discussed both Lunatella and Fratyo at this point. I was suspicious of both, speed was suspicious of Lunatella, so I trusted the combination of our feelings and voted for Lunatella. Speed re-evaluated it (I think he was put off by me giving as much credence to his feelings at this point) and decided I should have trusted my gut toward Fratyo and switched the vote.The Dry Flood wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:19 pm Similarly, on day 2, you have a Luna vote followed by a Fratyo vote. It's confusing to understand how your different heads were playing out. Can you please describe who had what opinion and what exactly went on at end of day there?
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
What role, if any, did putting Luna in a 3-2 vote lead have in that switch?ColinIsSpeed wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:22 pmIIRC, speed and I had discussed both Lunatella and Fratyo at this point. I was suspicious of both, speed was suspicious of Lunatella, so I trusted the combination of our feelings and voted for Lunatella. Speed re-evaluated it (I think he was put off by me giving as much credence to his feelings at this point) and decided I should have trusted my gut toward Fratyo and switched the vote.The Dry Flood wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:19 pm Similarly, on day 2, you have a Luna vote followed by a Fratyo vote. It's confusing to understand how your different heads were playing out. Can you please describe who had what opinion and what exactly went on at end of day there?
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
The switch from Luna? Speed will have to answer that. I don't recall being here during that EOD.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
[VOTE:
Galactic Mac] aubergine
This vote remains unless Daisy or Mac engage in a way to convince me they are not bad.
This vote remains unless Daisy or Mac engage in a way to convince me they are not bad.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
This doesn't mean you should stop answering my questions colin/speed.
But I find the conflict between your heads to be quite persuasive. I'm trying to figure out whether you would fake different reads and allow that to spill out into the thread as a deliberate tactic to appear more town. My answer is - I think no. There's no evidence you've had any town cred for it, and if anything your vote hopping at the end of day two increases rather than decreases the spotlight on you, which is in stark contrast to C & Ms strategy throughout. I tend to believe your heads would be more likely to have somewhat of a more streamlined opinion if you were bad.
This may be the persuasive thing which pushes me over the edge to voting Mac.
But tbh, it could have just been the Fugitive gif
But I find the conflict between your heads to be quite persuasive. I'm trying to figure out whether you would fake different reads and allow that to spill out into the thread as a deliberate tactic to appear more town. My answer is - I think no. There's no evidence you've had any town cred for it, and if anything your vote hopping at the end of day two increases rather than decreases the spotlight on you, which is in stark contrast to C & Ms strategy throughout. I tend to believe your heads would be more likely to have somewhat of a more streamlined opinion if you were bad.
This may be the persuasive thing which pushes me over the edge to voting Mac.
But tbh, it could have just been the Fugitive gif
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
Also, in honour of Marmot, I did flip a coin. It came up Galactic Mac. I wouldn't go with it blindly but it confirmed that my gut feel was already going that way.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
You honor me with coinflips? You're an interesting bird.The Dry Flood wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:36 pm Also, in honour of Marmot, I did flip a coin. It came up Galactic Mac. I wouldn't go with it blindly but it confirmed that my gut feel was already going that way.
I plan to get to the bottom of this without using your silly human currency.
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 3]
Galactic Mac wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:34 pm I am currently driving, which I’m sure gives away which one of us this is, lol. The wedding was fantastic and proved way busier than I expected so I’m really sorry for being absent, but it really couldn’t be avoided.
And I’ve been battling a migraine since Friday night, so please bear with me. I can’t handle staring at this screen for long.
Can someone summarize the case on Cupguys for me?
The series of posts from GMac is decent reason to vote this way.Galactic Mac wrote: ↑Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:49 pm Dude I’m so out of it here, lol. So the best course is to vote someone we think might be the mafia double voter I get that, how did you settle on Cupguys? I’m sorry for nagging you with questions, but I appreciate not having to go dig to understand what’s happening.
You know what fuck it, I trust you guys know wtf you’re doing and I can’t stand staring at the screen longer.
[VOTE: Cupguys] aubergine
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
My one qualm with GMac being mafia, why do they kill fratyo last night?
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Re: Two-Headed Monster Mafia [Day 5]
[VOTE:
Golden] aubergine for now while I do a little reading and catchup.
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