Mega Man Mafia [ENDGAME]

[speedchuck]

I mean, Marmot IS known to self-vote. But he isn't.

[Kylemii]

Here are 3 possibilities as I see 'em.

1. Marmot is Gemini and saved himself. Either bad Gemini and saved himself maliciously or Good Gemini and saved himself without knowing Simon was also a civ
2. Gemini is a civ and for some reason saved Marmot over Simon. Either Gemini suspected Simon more or figured for some reason Marmot was being stitched up
3. Gemini is bad, and since from what I gather the mafia are putting the screws to active players, figured "Hey you know what would be funny? Using my fun extra vote to frame Marmot who won't fight back and lynch Simon now, and lets let the town hang the Marmot"

Have I got that about sorted?

I think that's accurate, except iirc I think 2 was at least soft-ruled out, since for the most part the Simon vote stack contained mostly people who didn't feel strongly about a Simon lynch anyways, or weren't even around at the time.

[Kylemii]

If Marmot is town, Gemini Man is scum and almost certain Speedchuck.

If Marmot is scum and not Gemini Man, same conclusion.

explain?

[Kylemii]

Notice that the very next post after Marmot's Luna vote is nutella hinting at finding bussers, indicating she saw the same thing I did with Marmot's vote, before Luna had even flipped.

wasn't that right before she died?

[Kylemii]

am i alone

[Quin]

Marmot posted while allegedly silenced? Can someone tell me about that?

Quin was silenced/imprisoned one day. We know because he told us and was noticeably absent. (as compared to other inactives.)

We thought Marmot had the same problem the next day, because he said he'd post and he didn't... until like 2 hours before dayend. This is how I remember it, though I was in fever haze at the time.

So what you're saying is a guy notorious for giving perhaps even a negative amount of fucks didn't follow through on a statement of his until he felt like it and people have jumped down his throat claiming he must be lynched for it.

that's not the reason people suspect him, if not the WHOLE reason

It reads to me from the last 1-5 pages or so that I've read, the idea is that Marmot was "supposed" to be lynched over Simon but this Gemini guy stepped in and put the ol' kybash on that, and now everyone's like "Oi wut? Marmot got saved by Gemini, and also Marmot was 'silenced', so like lets kill Marmot?"


Here are 3 possibilities as I see 'em.

1. Marmot is Gemini and saved himself. Either bad Gemini and saved himself maliciously or Good Gemini and saved himself without knowing Simon was also a civ
2. Gemini is a civ and for some reason saved Marmot over Simon. Either Gemini suspected Simon more or figured for some reason Marmot was being stitched up
3. Gemini is bad, and since from what I gather the mafia are putting the screws to active players, figured "Hey you know what would be funny? Using my fun extra vote to frame Marmot who won't fight back and lynch Simon now, and lets let the town hang the Marmot"

Have I got that about sorted?

This is even less likely considering Gemini man is likely a limited use role since we only saw him the first time yesterday.

[Quin]

Has Dizzy posted today?

[Quin]

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

Let’s just sort some shit.

Bullzeye - Bad vibes but he appears to be trying the correct townie amount to make things happen if that makes sense. I suspect this is a stylistic clash but it’s hard to tell having not played with him before. Slight townlean. Merits ISO.

ColinIsCool - Destroyed Night 1. 50% chance killed by the mafia. Suspected Sloonei in a way that gained him some flack so possible vig hit as well. (Dare I consider a sker on the Syndicate?) Slight scumlean but probably consensus town.

DFaraday - Null. Come on, DF.

Dom - Null. Come on, Dom.

DrWilgy - Null. Come on, Doc.

Infected_alien8_ - Bad vibes. Kinda ignored them cause he’s new to me. Scumlean. Merits ISO.

JaggedJimmyJay - Destroyed Night 1. 50% chance of being the mafia hit. Acting different from normal so there’s a chance he was a vig hit. Few players flat out said Jay was bad, though. Townread.

K-Ness - Need more. Slight townlean.

Kylemii - Null. Come on, Kyle.

Long Con - Feels right. I sense town effort, not scum agenda. Townread.

Lunalee - Her willingness to defend her hubby who is statistically unlikely to be her scum partner feels town motivated but I still need more from her. Townlean.

MacDougall - Initially felt very town for mindmeld and aggression but I’m wavering a bit. Townlean.

Marmot - Null. Come on, Marmot.

novaselinenever - Townlean. Votes poured in on him too quickly and his reaction seemed genuine.

nutella - Townlean. Very loose. A bit swingy but that’s Nutella sometimes.

Quin - Townread. It’s a secret why.

Simon - Null. Come on, Simon. Likely not w/w with Sloonei.

Sloonei - I’ve gone back and forth. Overall, there’s not much in the way of red flags but I consider myself pretty bad at reading Sloonei. I think I may have identified a scumSloonei tendency but I’m keeping it in my back pocket. Slight townlean.

speedchuck - Null. Hasn’t really said much besides naysaying some shit. Come on, Speed.

Soneji - Null. Come on, Soneji.

sprityo - Townlean. It’s a secret from everyone.

Turnip Head - Scumlean. I don’t see the town/neutral TH I’m used to seeing. For someone so excited about this game, he hasn’t been very present.

White - Null. Has this slot posted?



So I’d probably shoot an inactive if it were up to me.

Nice analysis Jack. I would bet there's at least one mafia among the low/lazy-posters. We should look into DFaraday, Dom, Dr. Wilgy, Alien, K-Ness, Kylemii, Marmot, Simon, Speedchuck, Soneji, and sprityo.

(ignoring White for now. they aren't even playing)

That is sort of a long list, but I think it's a good place to start. I'll add my own analyses later.

My post-to-availability is actually very high thank you very much.

I really like that post from Sloonei more than I like the case against him. Unfortunately, I don't have time to read the link you posted Sloonei.

[VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine

No ties please (don't listen to turnipface).

Anyway those are Marmots "interactions with Luna"

1) A very Marmot goof boi post
2) He votes for her based on his understanding of some post Sloonei made.

From those 2 posts, Marmot is a "must-lynch"? Or are you, my children, trippin'.

So you think Marmot is town and in extrapolation, Gemini man, and used his power to save himself?

I dunno if he's Gemini and saved himself or if he got saved by a Gemini that voted for Simon. Either way I shake it "Marmot is bad because he's shitposting" and "Marmot is bad because he has 2 total posts that have anything to do with Luna" look to me like the town is getting rooked into voting for a guy the mafia know won't bother to defend himself.

NEGAN DADDY SAVE ME FROM THESE WEIRD CULT PEOPLE

[Long Con]

Hi dudes. I don't understand any theory where Marmot is Bad Gemini and doesn't use his vote to try to save himself.

[Long Con]

Also, same goes if he's Good Gemini. Town Marmot would say "I hope Simon is bad, but I know I'm not, so..."

Also the late Gemini vote, coming around the same time as the late Marmot vote, really leads me to believe he's Gemini.

If he's not Gemini, then he's bad, because that means Gemini is a teammate who realized that Marmot showed up in time to try to save him.

[Quin]

DH there's really no way we live in a reality where Marmot is civ. The case against him has been repeated and built on for half the game by various sources and he's sort of shrugged it off, then he outright trolled us in the last lynch.

The devil is in the details with how he handled what ended up becoming the Luna lynch and then how he behaved yesterday, which up until the last minute looked like he was going to be the one lynched.

Maybe you had to see it play out in real time to understand it, idk. He's guilty af tho

god i hope turnip head made this argument because that would be delightfully ironic

[Quin]

If Marmot is town, Gemini Man is scum and almost certain Speedchuck.

If Marmot is scum and not Gemini Man, same conclusion.

Can Marmot not be town and Gemini Man?

The main thing I don't understand is why in my catch up people seem to be assuming Gemini Man is definitely a baddie with what appears to be no evidence other than his vote to tie the lynch. I'm not opposed to re-lynching Marmot, especially if I can be presented with a convincing answer to this question.

If that’s the case, why didn’t he defend himself then or in the next day?

To what end does townie Marmot throw someone else under the bus only to let himself be mislynched the next day? (Same question if Marmot isn’t GM I suppose.)

Gemini Man (and Speedchuck and LC) caused us to waste a day lynching Simon when the consensus was that Marmot should be lynched. Simon was town. None of those players gave a good reason for lynching Simon over Marmot yet here we are. Ergo, Gemini Man looks shady af.

He seems to be claiming he was silenced and broke the rules of it by posting. Not sure if I buy it. As to why he hasn't defended himself since:

If I had the ability to apply an extra vote to someone, you can 100% guarantee I'd use it defensively regardless of my alignment. I guess that's why I can see a civ GM voting to tie up a lynch to protect himself. I'm mostly just playing devil's advocate with this though, my questioning here is more with regard to Gemini Man specifically.

To me the smartest and most damning thing about Marmot is "Why bother tacking onto the Luna vote unless it's for cred"

Okay this is a solid point.

Can you pull where he said this? It's very important.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Also, same goes if he's Good Gemini. Town Marmot would say "I hope Simon is bad, but I know I'm not, so..."

Also the late Gemini vote, coming around the same time as the late Marmot vote, really leads me to believe he's Gemini.

If he's not Gemini, then he's bad, because that means Gemini is a teammate who realized that Marmot showed up in time to try to save him.

GM is voting Marmot.

There is no world where Marmot is town GM, takes the Hail Mary on Simon and then commits suicide.

[Jackofhearts2005]

GM is scum. There’s no townie but Marmot who would use that to tie up Marmot and Simon.

GM’s Marmot vote is wifom.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I think it’s wifom that points to Marmot being bad, which is convenient cause I’m not moving my vote.

[Kylemii]

here are my main thoughts coming into this lynch:

1. the mafia seems to have focused on heavy participators with their kills, I think that's a strategy that would tend to benefit a mafia that has some number of inactive/less active players or at the very least most of the high posters that are left alive are people i wouldn't expect to use that kind of strategy

2. marmot's interactions with the lunalee lynch still seem off and he hasn't really done much to explain his motivations since then. his words and actions don't seem like those of a person who cares about the roof

3. in an environment where basically 1/3 of the total player base are mia, a mafia gemini man is a worrisome concept. this isn't a primary reason to want to lynch marmot, but knowing his alingment/role would give us more of an idea what we're dealing with with gemini man.

[Kylemii]

roof or whatever the robot version of rooves is

[Kylemii]

is it rooves or roofs? they both either look or sound wrong.

[Quin]

Because he tried to lynch Sloonei. Yes this is old news, but it's the limit of my recollection.

Honestly, I logged in the other day and freaked out because I was about to be lynched. But I probably shouldn't have posted when I did, hence why you guys didn't hear more from me. I didn't expect to survive the lynch either, that was a surprise to me.

Anyway, just checking in right now to say hi. But I'll be back to post more later on today, and I've got a bone to pick with you voters.

If Marmot is hinting at a silencing/imprisonment here, then Marmot cannot be Gemini Man. The imprisonment comes with a role-block for the full day and night as well.

Either Marmot is Gemini Man and was lying about being imprisoned or Gemini Man legitimately tried to save him yesterday. I'm trying to think of what that means for the Marmot/GM/Imprisoner trio alignment-wise.

[Quin]

Also, same goes if he's Good Gemini. Town Marmot would say "I hope Simon is bad, but I know I'm not, so..."

Also the late Gemini vote, coming around the same time as the late Marmot vote, really leads me to believe he's Gemini.

If he's not Gemini, then he's bad, because that means Gemini is a teammate who realized that Marmot showed up in time to try to save him.

GM is voting Marmot.

There is no world where Marmot is town GM, takes the Hail Mary on Simon and then commits suicide.

Marmot self-votes literally all the time.

[Long Con]

Also, same goes if he's Good Gemini. Town Marmot would say "I hope Simon is bad, but I know I'm not, so..."

Also the late Gemini vote, coming around the same time as the late Marmot vote, really leads me to believe he's Gemini.

If he's not Gemini, then he's bad, because that means Gemini is a teammate who realized that Marmot showed up in time to try to save him.

GM is voting Marmot.

There is no world where Marmot is town GM, takes the Hail Mary on Simon and then commits suicide.

Yeah, this looks like a distancing attempt from Gemini.

[Quin]

GM is scum. There’s no townie but Marmot who would use that to tie up Marmot and Simon.

GM’s Marmot vote is wifom.

Provided Marmot himself isn't GM, I agree with this.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Also, same goes if he's Good Gemini. Town Marmot would say "I hope Simon is bad, but I know I'm not, so..."

Also the late Gemini vote, coming around the same time as the late Marmot vote, really leads me to believe he's Gemini.

If he's not Gemini, then he's bad, because that means Gemini is a teammate who realized that Marmot showed up in time to try to save him.

GM is voting Marmot.

There is no world where Marmot is town GM, takes the Hail Mary on Simon and then commits suicide.

Marmot self-votes literally all the time.

Self voting and tying up a vote instead of defending oneself are basically strategic opposites.

[Long Con]

Does Marmot do strategy?

[Kylemii]

[mention]Marmot[/mention]

[Quin]

Also, same goes if he's Good Gemini. Town Marmot would say "I hope Simon is bad, but I know I'm not, so..."

Also the late Gemini vote, coming around the same time as the late Marmot vote, really leads me to believe he's Gemini.

If he's not Gemini, then he's bad, because that means Gemini is a teammate who realized that Marmot showed up in time to try to save him.

GM is voting Marmot.

There is no world where Marmot is town GM, takes the Hail Mary on Simon and then commits suicide.

Marmot self-votes literally all the time.

Self voting and tying up a vote instead of defending oneself are basically strategic opposites.

Not really. One is just the lazier version.

[Epignosis]

I apologize in advance, but the lynch result tomorrow is probably going to be late.

[DharmaHelper]

I apologize in advance, but the lynch result tomorrow is probably going to be late.

*Marks down Inefficient at handing back lynch results*

[DharmaHelper]

Here are 3 possibilities as I see 'em.

1. Marmot is Gemini and saved himself. Either bad Gemini and saved himself maliciously or Good Gemini and saved himself without knowing Simon was also a civ
2. Gemini is a civ and for some reason saved Marmot over Simon. Either Gemini suspected Simon more or figured for some reason Marmot was being stitched up
3. Gemini is bad, and since from what I gather the mafia are putting the screws to active players, figured "Hey you know what would be funny? Using my fun extra vote to frame Marmot who won't fight back and lynch Simon now, and lets let the town hang the Marmot"

Have I got that about sorted?

I think that's accurate, except iirc I think 2 was at least soft-ruled out, since for the most part the Simon vote stack contained mostly people who didn't feel strongly about a Simon lynch anyways, or weren't even around at the time.

Did I understand that right

"The people who voted for Simon fucked off, or didn't want to lynch Simon"

Yall are buggin

[DharmaHelper]

"Hey I have an idea. I know we lynched ACTUALLY MEGA MAN Day 1 and then there were THREE NIGHT KILLS before the next lynch... but you know what would be fun? Voting for a guy we don't want to lynch and then fucking right the hell off forever."

[Jackofhearts2005]

Here are 3 possibilities as I see 'em.

1. Marmot is Gemini and saved himself. Either bad Gemini and saved himself maliciously or Good Gemini and saved himself without knowing Simon was also a civ
2. Gemini is a civ and for some reason saved Marmot over Simon. Either Gemini suspected Simon more or figured for some reason Marmot was being stitched up
3. Gemini is bad, and since from what I gather the mafia are putting the screws to active players, figured "Hey you know what would be funny? Using my fun extra vote to frame Marmot who won't fight back and lynch Simon now, and lets let the town hang the Marmot"

Have I got that about sorted?

I think that's accurate, except iirc I think 2 was at least soft-ruled out, since for the most part the Simon vote stack contained mostly people who didn't feel strongly about a Simon lynch anyways, or weren't even around at the time.

Did I understand that right

"The people who voted for Simon fucked off, or didn't want to lynch Simon"

Yall are buggin

LC votes to keep a second train or somesuch, whatever that means.

Dizzy meant to move their vote off but forgot or something.

I have no idea what Speed’s townie/supposed townie reason for voting Simon was.

Marmot and GM did not say why they voted Simon but presumably it was to save Marmot (since nobody else stated they wanted to lynch Simon or not lynch Marmot).

I’m quite annoyed that we lynched a player nobody has owned up to wanting dead.

[DharmaHelper]

Here are 3 possibilities as I see 'em.

1. Marmot is Gemini and saved himself. Either bad Gemini and saved himself maliciously or Good Gemini and saved himself without knowing Simon was also a civ
2. Gemini is a civ and for some reason saved Marmot over Simon. Either Gemini suspected Simon more or figured for some reason Marmot was being stitched up
3. Gemini is bad, and since from what I gather the mafia are putting the screws to active players, figured "Hey you know what would be funny? Using my fun extra vote to frame Marmot who won't fight back and lynch Simon now, and lets let the town hang the Marmot"

Have I got that about sorted?

I think that's accurate, except iirc I think 2 was at least soft-ruled out, since for the most part the Simon vote stack contained mostly people who didn't feel strongly about a Simon lynch anyways, or weren't even around at the time.

Did I understand that right

"The people who voted for Simon fucked off, or didn't want to lynch Simon"

Yall are buggin

LC votes to keep a second train or somesuch, whatever that means.

Dizzy meant to move their vote off but forgot or something.

I have no idea what Speed’s townie/supposed townie reason for voting Simon was.

Marmot and GM did not say why they voted Simon but presumably it was to save Marmot (since nobody else stated they wanted to lynch Simon or not lynch Marmot).

I’m quite annoyed that we lynched a player nobody has owned up to wanting dead.

Did dizzy say he "meant to" move his vote before or after Simon died.

Because I for one 100% believe a guy who says "I meant to move my vote and not lynch a civ but I totally forgot lol oops RIP civ guy who I definitely 100% would not have lynched if I had not forgotten about my vote."

[Jackofhearts2005]

"Hey I have an idea. I know we lynched ACTUALLY MEGA MAN Day 1 and then there were THREE NIGHT KILLS before the next lynch... but you know what would be fun? Voting for a guy we don't want to lynch and then fucking right the hell off forever."

Tone read scum.

[DharmaHelper]

"Hey I have an idea. I know we lynched ACTUALLY MEGA MAN Day 1 and then there were THREE NIGHT KILLS before the next lynch... but you know what would be fun? Voting for a guy we don't want to lynch and then fucking right the hell off forever."

Tone read scum.

I'm confirmed civ how dare u

[Kylemii]

Did I understand that right

"The people who voted for Simon fucked off, or didn't want to lynch Simon"

Yall are buggin

dizzy meant to change their vote to marmot but wasn't able to cus they arrived late

long con voted to keep the votes in contention

speedchuck voted for simon around 2pm and didn't return until after the lynch

the other 2 votes were marmot himself and gemini man

[DharmaHelper]

Did I understand that right

"The people who voted for Simon fucked off, or didn't want to lynch Simon"

Yall are buggin

dizzy meant to change their vote to marmot but wasn't able to cus they arrived late

long con voted to keep the votes in contention

speedchuck voted for simon around 2pm and didn't return until after the lynch

the other 2 votes were marmot himself and gemini man

Gives me the utter yips I say.

[DharmaHelper]

Anyway I don't usually do this but TH is for sure town. Not getting so much as a wiff of his bullshit meme game from Firefly. Dude actually cares about winning this one for the town, and fortunately for him I'm here to help us do that. God I'm brilliant.

[DharmaHelper]

Hey real quick why are they called Written Essays? What else am I gonna do besides write that shit down? Like, 'No thanks teach, think I'll explain the moral complexities of Atticus Finch through interpretive dance this time."

[Long Con]

"Hey I have an idea. I know we lynched ACTUALLY MEGA MAN Day 1 and then there were THREE NIGHT KILLS before the next lynch... but you know what would be fun? Voting for a guy we don't want to lynch and then fucking right the hell off forever."

I don't know what this belligerent crap is supposed to be. I don't know what Elohcin's town role has to do with any point you're trying to make. I don't know what three night kills has to do with whatever point you're trying to make. I disagree with the whole premise that I voted for Simon even though I didn't want to lynch him.

[DharmaHelper]

"Hey I have an idea. I know we lynched ACTUALLY MEGA MAN Day 1 and then there were THREE NIGHT KILLS before the next lynch... but you know what would be fun? Voting for a guy we don't want to lynch and then fucking right the hell off forever."

I don't know what this belligerent crap is supposed to be. I don't know what Elohcin's town role has to do with any point you're trying to make. I don't know what three night kills has to do with whatever point you're trying to make. I disagree with the whole premise that I voted for Simon even though I didn't want to lynch him.

My point being it's reckless and unwise to vote-and-run or to vote for someone you don't feel confident in lynching after such a stumble of a start for the civs.

Down 1 (very important) civ Day 1
Day 2 skipped
Night Kills from N1, N2, N3
Day 3 yall got Luna which was clutch
But Day 4 starts and we've taken a significant gut punch, and the dude that ends up with a brand new fitted neck tie is Simon?

IDK man seems kinda half assed.

[DharmaHelper]

RE: Your motives for lynching Simon [mention]Long Con[/mention] Everyone I've asked seems to think you voted Simon to keep a tie/train running. That's not as bad a reason as "I gotta go" or "I don't want to lynch Simon but what're ya gonna do?"

But if say, Marmot was to flip bad, "I voted for Simon to keep him in the running during a tight lynch involving Marmot" carries its own fair share of stink.

[Long Con]

Simon looked the guiltiest to me. Who am I supposed to vote for again?

[DharmaHelper]

Simon looked the guiltiest to me. Who am I supposed to vote for again?

I haven't even seen the case on Simon yet so I can't say whether or not you're full o' farts. But I do like that you're willing enough to defend yourself.

[Long Con]

RE: Your motives for lynching Simon @Long Con Everyone I've asked seems to think you voted Simon to keep a tie/train running. That's not as bad a reason as "I gotta go" or "I don't want to lynch Simon but what're ya gonna do?"

But if say, Marmot was to flip bad, "I voted for Simon to keep him in the running during a tight lynch involving Marmot" carries its own fair share of stink.

I suspected Simon, and I was fine with a Marmot lynch because I had no reason to think he was Civ. I had stated my Simon suspicions earlier, and at the time of the vote I said I was happy to keep him in the running or whatever.

[DharmaHelper]

RE: Your motives for lynching Simon @Long Con Everyone I've asked seems to think you voted Simon to keep a tie/train running. That's not as bad a reason as "I gotta go" or "I don't want to lynch Simon but what're ya gonna do?"

But if say, Marmot was to flip bad, "I voted for Simon to keep him in the running during a tight lynch involving Marmot" carries its own fair share of stink.

I suspected Simon, and I was fine with a Marmot lynch because I had no reason to think he was Civ. I had stated my Simon suspicions earlier, and at the time of the vote I said I was happy to keep him in the running or whatever.

I either do or I do not believe you

[nutella]

r e z z p l z

[Long Con]

I'm not really too concerned. I'm Civ and everyone knows it, and there's no way I'll ever be lynched.

[DharmaHelper]

I'm not really too concerned. I'm Civ and everyone knows it, and there's no way I'll ever be lynched.

Yo remember when you spent 10 days trying to get me lynched and everyone was like "LOL Good one."

[sprityo]

you guys probably are important.

ill get to it eventually.

I put jack as town because i realized i had nothing against him i could quote. only in my gut

also sorry to hear about your cold. i took it literally

You should check the expiration dates on your food more carefully before you eat it.

That’s ridiculous. All my chips are at least two weeks expired

[Long Con]

I'm not really too concerned. I'm Civ and everyone knows it, and there's no way I'll ever be lynched.

Yo remember when you spent 10 days trying to get me lynched and everyone was like "LOL Good one."

Was that the same game where you saved my ass on my Indy win condition (Gollum)?